This paper analyzes the adoption dynamics of improved rainfed maize seeds disseminated in Senegal in 2013 by the West African Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP). We group maize producers into five groups (non-a...This paper analyzes the adoption dynamics of improved rainfed maize seeds disseminated in Senegal in 2013 by the West African Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP). We group maize producers into five groups (non-adopters, laggards/abandoners, late adopters, followers and pioneers/innovators) and take into account the heterogeneity of unobservable characteristics of the producers. In the pioneers/innovators group, the availability of labour, household size, shocks, and frequency of access to advice positively influence adoption, whereas financial constraints and high numbers of plots reduce the probability of adoption. Producers in the followers’ category tend to be older and more educated than those in the other categories. However, food insecurity and shocks such as diseases hamper adoption. For the group of late adopters, household size and available storage infrastructures explain adoption. However, the number of plots and shocks reduces their probability of adoption. Laggards tend to face shocks and food insecurity. The authors recommend to consider the dynamics of the adoption of technological innovations and heterogeneity of the characteristics of adopters groups in future research. They also recommend farmers to increase their adoption rate of the “Early Thai” and “Suwan 1” seed varieties thanks to their higher yields compared to traditional varieties. Also, a higher adoption rate would positively impact the food security of maize farmers in Eastern Senegal and High Casamance, especially in terms of availability. Other studies measuring the number of years needed for large-scale adoption of improved seed varieties should be conducted.展开更多
Survival analysis is a fundamental tool in medical science for time-to-event data. However, its application to colony organisms like bees poses challenges due to their social nature. Traditional survival models may no...Survival analysis is a fundamental tool in medical science for time-to-event data. However, its application to colony organisms like bees poses challenges due to their social nature. Traditional survival models may not accurately capture the interdependence among individuals within a colony. Frailty models, accounting for shared risks within groups, offer a promising alternative. This study evaluates the performance of semi-parametric shared frailty models (gamma, inverse normal, and positive stable-in comparison to the traditional Cox model using bees’ survival data). We examined the effect of misspecification of the frailty distribution on regression and heterogeneity parameters using simulation and concluded that the heterogeneity parameter was more sensitive to misspecification of the frailty distribution and choice of initial parameters (cluster size and true heterogeneity parameter) compared to the regression parameter. From the data, parameter estimates for covariates were close for the four models but slightly higher for the Cox model. The shared gamma frailty model provided a better fit to the data in comparison with the other models. Therefore, when focusing on regression parameters, the gamma frailty model is recommended. This research underscores the importance of tailored survival methodologies for accurately analyzing time-to-event data in social organisms.展开更多
Drowsy driving has received comparatively less attention in traffic safety literature when compared to other safety issues,despite its devastating impact on society in terms of human life lost and associated economic ...Drowsy driving has received comparatively less attention in traffic safety literature when compared to other safety issues,despite its devastating impact on society in terms of human life lost and associated economic burdens.Therefore,this significant safety threat requires a thorough investigation.To address the temporal instability of factors contributing to crashes involving drowsy drivers,this paper divides the crash data into four time periods while capturing unobserved heterogeneity in the means and variances of random parameters.To explore the determinants affecting the severity of injuries sustained by drowsy drivers involved in single-vehicle crashes,injury outcomes are categorized into three groups:serious,moderate,and no injuries.Using four years of crash data from the state of Washington between 2013 and 2016,a wide range of factors were examined,including driver characteristics,roadway conditions,crash characteristics,vehicle conditions,lighting conditions,and temporal factors.The estimation results reveal that there is temporal instability in terms of the effect of determinants on injury severity across the years.However,some factors exhibit stable effects,such as female drivers,sober drivers,and non-hit-and-run crashes.Based on the findings of this study,decision-makers,traffic engineers,and traffic authorities can gain valuable knowledge and insights into the factors contributing to drowsy-related crashes,enabling them to make informed recommendations for safety countermeasures.展开更多
For the purpose of exploring the factors affecting injury severity of children and adolescents involved in traffic crashes in Greece,disaggregate crash data including 13,431 involving children and adolescents from all...For the purpose of exploring the factors affecting injury severity of children and adolescents involved in traffic crashes in Greece,disaggregate crash data including 13,431 involving children and adolescents from all regions of Greece for the period 2006–2015 were utilized.In order to identify factors affecting injury severity and account for potential unobserved heterogeneity,a series of mixed logit models were utilized.To explore and address potential temporal instability of crash-related risk factors,the likelihood ratio test was applied.Results indicated that night crashes,crashes outside urban areas as well as crashes involving bicycles or powered-two-wheelers are associated with higher injury severity of children and adolescents.Interestingly,crashes involving pedestrians are associated with lower injury severity than head-on collisions and run-off-road collisions with fixed objects.Side and sideswipe crashes also result in lower injury severities.The likelihood ratio test indicated that crash-related factors are instable when comparing the models utilizing data before and after 2010 respectively.This study contributes to the current knowledge in the field,as to the best of our knowledge this is the first study that addresses unobserved heterogeneity when analyzing child and adolescent injury severity.Overall,the findings of this study provide useful insights and could assist in unveiling crash risk factors and prioritize programs and measures to promote road safety of children and adolescents.展开更多
Every year,a substantial number of children sustain injuries and fatalities in motor vehicle crashes in Wyoming.Understanding the factors contributing to child injury is crucial for the development of appropriate miti...Every year,a substantial number of children sustain injuries and fatalities in motor vehicle crashes in Wyoming.Understanding the factors contributing to child injury is crucial for the development of appropriate mitigation measures that aid in alleviating the severity of such injuries.In this study,a hierarchical Bayesian binary logit regression model was developed to investigate the factors that contribute to children’s injuries resulting from crashes while accounting for possible intra-class correlation effects(those of unobserved factors common to children involved in the same crash).A strong correlation among crashes justified the use of the hierarchical Bayesian logit model.As per the modeling results,the children’s ages,safety restraint types,vehicle types,drivers’ages,alcohol/drug involvement,drivers’seat belt use habits,drivers’actions,manners of collision and environmental conditions contributed to child injury risk.The child’s age was found to be inversely related to the risk of injury.Similarly,among safety restraint types,rear-facing car seats and forward-facing car seats were found to reduce injury likelihoods in crashes.When it comes to the drivers’characteristics,the probability of incurring injuries among the child population increased in the presence of young,unbuckled and impaired drivers.Furthermore,improper driving actions,such as running off the road,raised the risk of incurring injuries to children.The findings of this study may be beneficial to authorities regarding developing and implementing road safety programs aimed at ameliorating child injury concerns.展开更多
Improper lane-changing behaviours may result in breakdown of traffic flow and the occurrence of various types of collisions.This study investigates lane-changing behaviours of multiple vehicles and the stimulative eff...Improper lane-changing behaviours may result in breakdown of traffic flow and the occurrence of various types of collisions.This study investigates lane-changing behaviours of multiple vehicles and the stimulative effect on following drivers in a consecutive lanechanging scenario.The microscopic trajectory data from the HighD dataset are used for driving behaviour analysis.Two discretionary lane-changing vehicle groups constitute a consecutive lane-changing scenario,and not only distance-and speed-related factors but also driving behaviours are taken into account to examine the impacts on the utility of following lane-changing vehicles.A random parameters logit model is developed to capture the driver’s psychological heterogeneity in the consecutive lane-changing situation.Furthermore,a lane-changing utility prediction model is established based on three supervised learning algorithms to detect the improper lane-changing decision.Results indicate that 1)the consecutive lane-changing behaviours have a significant negative effect on the following lane-changing vehicles after lane change;2)the stimulative effect exists in a consecutive lane-change situation and its influence is heterogeneous due to different psychological activities of drivers;and 3)the utility prediction model can be used to detect an improper lane-changing decision.展开更多
This paper provides an integrated analytical framework to investigate the demographic and behavioural factors that significantly influence public support for pedestrianisation. Pedestrianisation is often introduced by...This paper provides an integrated analytical framework to investigate the demographic and behavioural factors that significantly influence public support for pedestrianisation. Pedestrianisation is often introduced by local authorities with the intention of improving air quality, the walkability of streets, road safety and opportunities for the local economy, however, issues remain regarding how accessible pedestrianised areas are for individuals who have conditions that limit their mobility. Using data from a survey, conducted during 2020 in Edinburgh (UK), public perceptions towards pedestrianisation were investigated through statistical testing and the development of random forest and ordered probit models. The random forest approach can help identify the relative importance of explanatory variables, whereas the ordered probit models can unveil the demographic and behavioural determinants of public support. To account for the potential effect of unobserved heterogeneity within respondents’ perceptions, random parameters were also considered in the ordered probit modelling framework. Initial results showed that residents are generally supportive of most issues surrounding pedestrianisation. Random parameters ordered probit modelling identified mode of travel and trip frequency as significant factors affecting key aspects of public support, such that active travellers were significantly more likely to support pedestrianisation, while those who rarely visit Edinburgh city centre were more likely to oppose pedestrianisation. Overall, a variety of independent analyses and modelling approaches suggest common influences on opinion, including behavioural patterns relating to transport modal choice and trip frequency, while disability was also found to have considerable effect on support as a fixed and random parameter. The statistical models are evaluated in terms of goodness-of-fit measures, before policy implications are discussed.展开更多
This research investigates the intricate relationship between the number of lanes on highways and injury severities sustained by commercial motor vehicle(CMV)drivers.Many studies have addressed crash determinants,but ...This research investigates the intricate relationship between the number of lanes on highways and injury severities sustained by commercial motor vehicle(CMV)drivers.Many studies have addressed crash determinants,but the safety implications of differing numbers of lanes remain insufficiently examined,especially during the highway planning stages.Our study fills this knowledge gap by analyzing injury severity crash factors for a varied number of lane scenarios.Employing a random parameter logit modeling framework,we differentiated injury levels for 2-4 lanes and 6-10 lanes.Key factors were identified for each number of lanes,with older,loss of vehicle control,non-collision crashes,and crashes,on locations where grade or hill existed,being more perilous and increasing the risk of sustaining severe injuries on 2-lane highways.For 4-lane highways,factors such as non-Oregonian drivers,older drivers,crashes that occurred during the spring season,and crashes that occurred beyond shoulders were associated with an elevated probability of being involved in severe injury crashes.Regarding highways with 6 lanes and higher,driving too fast for conditions and driver error(drowsy,fatigued,inattentive,or reckless)increases the odds of being involved in higher levels of injury crashes.To enhance truck driver safety,we recommend the implementation of electronic stability control in CMVs,with moderated speeds on graded sections,improved curve markers,and robust public safety campaigns.展开更多
Bicycling has been actively promoted as a clean and efficient mode of commute.Besides,due to the personal and societal benefits it provides,it has been adopted by many city dwellers for short-distance trips.Despite th...Bicycling has been actively promoted as a clean and efficient mode of commute.Besides,due to the personal and societal benefits it provides,it has been adopted by many city dwellers for short-distance trips.Despite the integral role this active transport mode plays,it is unfortunately associated with a high risk of fatalities in the event of a traffic crash as they are not protected.Many studies have been conducted in several jurisdictions to examine the factors contributing to crashes involving these vulnerable road users.In the case of Louisiana which is currently experiencing increased cases of severe and fatal bicycleinvolved crashes,less attention has been paid to investigating the critical factors influencing bicyclist injury severity outcomes using more detailed data and advanced econometric modeling frameworks to help propose adequate policies to improve the safety of riders.Against this background,this study examined the key contributing factors influencing bicyclist injuries by using more detailed roadway crash data spanning 2010-2016 obtained from the state of Louisiana.The study then applies an advanced random parameter logit modeling with heterogeneity in means and variances to address the unobserved heterogeneity issue associated with traffic crash data.To overcome the imbalanced data issue,three major crash injury levels were used instead of the conventional five crash injury levels.Besides,the data groups classified under each injury level were compared for the final variable selection.The study found that distracted drivers,elderly bicyclists,careless operations,and riding in dark conditions increase the probability of having severe injuries in vehicle-bicyclist crashes.Moreover,the variables for straight-level roadways and city streets decrease the odds of severe injuries.The straight-level roadway may provide better sight distance for both drivers and bicyclists,and complex environments like city streets discourage crashes with severe injuries.展开更多
文摘This paper analyzes the adoption dynamics of improved rainfed maize seeds disseminated in Senegal in 2013 by the West African Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP). We group maize producers into five groups (non-adopters, laggards/abandoners, late adopters, followers and pioneers/innovators) and take into account the heterogeneity of unobservable characteristics of the producers. In the pioneers/innovators group, the availability of labour, household size, shocks, and frequency of access to advice positively influence adoption, whereas financial constraints and high numbers of plots reduce the probability of adoption. Producers in the followers’ category tend to be older and more educated than those in the other categories. However, food insecurity and shocks such as diseases hamper adoption. For the group of late adopters, household size and available storage infrastructures explain adoption. However, the number of plots and shocks reduces their probability of adoption. Laggards tend to face shocks and food insecurity. The authors recommend to consider the dynamics of the adoption of technological innovations and heterogeneity of the characteristics of adopters groups in future research. They also recommend farmers to increase their adoption rate of the “Early Thai” and “Suwan 1” seed varieties thanks to their higher yields compared to traditional varieties. Also, a higher adoption rate would positively impact the food security of maize farmers in Eastern Senegal and High Casamance, especially in terms of availability. Other studies measuring the number of years needed for large-scale adoption of improved seed varieties should be conducted.
文摘Survival analysis is a fundamental tool in medical science for time-to-event data. However, its application to colony organisms like bees poses challenges due to their social nature. Traditional survival models may not accurately capture the interdependence among individuals within a colony. Frailty models, accounting for shared risks within groups, offer a promising alternative. This study evaluates the performance of semi-parametric shared frailty models (gamma, inverse normal, and positive stable-in comparison to the traditional Cox model using bees’ survival data). We examined the effect of misspecification of the frailty distribution on regression and heterogeneity parameters using simulation and concluded that the heterogeneity parameter was more sensitive to misspecification of the frailty distribution and choice of initial parameters (cluster size and true heterogeneity parameter) compared to the regression parameter. From the data, parameter estimates for covariates were close for the four models but slightly higher for the Cox model. The shared gamma frailty model provided a better fit to the data in comparison with the other models. Therefore, when focusing on regression parameters, the gamma frailty model is recommended. This research underscores the importance of tailored survival methodologies for accurately analyzing time-to-event data in social organisms.
文摘Drowsy driving has received comparatively less attention in traffic safety literature when compared to other safety issues,despite its devastating impact on society in terms of human life lost and associated economic burdens.Therefore,this significant safety threat requires a thorough investigation.To address the temporal instability of factors contributing to crashes involving drowsy drivers,this paper divides the crash data into four time periods while capturing unobserved heterogeneity in the means and variances of random parameters.To explore the determinants affecting the severity of injuries sustained by drowsy drivers involved in single-vehicle crashes,injury outcomes are categorized into three groups:serious,moderate,and no injuries.Using four years of crash data from the state of Washington between 2013 and 2016,a wide range of factors were examined,including driver characteristics,roadway conditions,crash characteristics,vehicle conditions,lighting conditions,and temporal factors.The estimation results reveal that there is temporal instability in terms of the effect of determinants on injury severity across the years.However,some factors exhibit stable effects,such as female drivers,sober drivers,and non-hit-and-run crashes.Based on the findings of this study,decision-makers,traffic engineers,and traffic authorities can gain valuable knowledge and insights into the factors contributing to drowsy-related crashes,enabling them to make informed recommendations for safety countermeasures.
基金funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 754462
文摘For the purpose of exploring the factors affecting injury severity of children and adolescents involved in traffic crashes in Greece,disaggregate crash data including 13,431 involving children and adolescents from all regions of Greece for the period 2006–2015 were utilized.In order to identify factors affecting injury severity and account for potential unobserved heterogeneity,a series of mixed logit models were utilized.To explore and address potential temporal instability of crash-related risk factors,the likelihood ratio test was applied.Results indicated that night crashes,crashes outside urban areas as well as crashes involving bicycles or powered-two-wheelers are associated with higher injury severity of children and adolescents.Interestingly,crashes involving pedestrians are associated with lower injury severity than head-on collisions and run-off-road collisions with fixed objects.Side and sideswipe crashes also result in lower injury severities.The likelihood ratio test indicated that crash-related factors are instable when comparing the models utilizing data before and after 2010 respectively.This study contributes to the current knowledge in the field,as to the best of our knowledge this is the first study that addresses unobserved heterogeneity when analyzing child and adolescent injury severity.Overall,the findings of this study provide useful insights and could assist in unveiling crash risk factors and prioritize programs and measures to promote road safety of children and adolescents.
基金funded by the Wyoming Department of Transportation(WyDOT)supported by the Mountain Plains Consortium(Grant Number 69A3551747108(FAST Act))。
文摘Every year,a substantial number of children sustain injuries and fatalities in motor vehicle crashes in Wyoming.Understanding the factors contributing to child injury is crucial for the development of appropriate mitigation measures that aid in alleviating the severity of such injuries.In this study,a hierarchical Bayesian binary logit regression model was developed to investigate the factors that contribute to children’s injuries resulting from crashes while accounting for possible intra-class correlation effects(those of unobserved factors common to children involved in the same crash).A strong correlation among crashes justified the use of the hierarchical Bayesian logit model.As per the modeling results,the children’s ages,safety restraint types,vehicle types,drivers’ages,alcohol/drug involvement,drivers’seat belt use habits,drivers’actions,manners of collision and environmental conditions contributed to child injury risk.The child’s age was found to be inversely related to the risk of injury.Similarly,among safety restraint types,rear-facing car seats and forward-facing car seats were found to reduce injury likelihoods in crashes.When it comes to the drivers’characteristics,the probability of incurring injuries among the child population increased in the presence of young,unbuckled and impaired drivers.Furthermore,improper driving actions,such as running off the road,raised the risk of incurring injuries to children.The findings of this study may be beneficial to authorities regarding developing and implementing road safety programs aimed at ameliorating child injury concerns.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71901223)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (Grant No.2021JJ40746)the Postgraduate Research and Innovation Project of Central South University (Grant No.1053320216523).
文摘Improper lane-changing behaviours may result in breakdown of traffic flow and the occurrence of various types of collisions.This study investigates lane-changing behaviours of multiple vehicles and the stimulative effect on following drivers in a consecutive lanechanging scenario.The microscopic trajectory data from the HighD dataset are used for driving behaviour analysis.Two discretionary lane-changing vehicle groups constitute a consecutive lane-changing scenario,and not only distance-and speed-related factors but also driving behaviours are taken into account to examine the impacts on the utility of following lane-changing vehicles.A random parameters logit model is developed to capture the driver’s psychological heterogeneity in the consecutive lane-changing situation.Furthermore,a lane-changing utility prediction model is established based on three supervised learning algorithms to detect the improper lane-changing decision.Results indicate that 1)the consecutive lane-changing behaviours have a significant negative effect on the following lane-changing vehicles after lane change;2)the stimulative effect exists in a consecutive lane-change situation and its influence is heterogeneous due to different psychological activities of drivers;and 3)the utility prediction model can be used to detect an improper lane-changing decision.
文摘This paper provides an integrated analytical framework to investigate the demographic and behavioural factors that significantly influence public support for pedestrianisation. Pedestrianisation is often introduced by local authorities with the intention of improving air quality, the walkability of streets, road safety and opportunities for the local economy, however, issues remain regarding how accessible pedestrianised areas are for individuals who have conditions that limit their mobility. Using data from a survey, conducted during 2020 in Edinburgh (UK), public perceptions towards pedestrianisation were investigated through statistical testing and the development of random forest and ordered probit models. The random forest approach can help identify the relative importance of explanatory variables, whereas the ordered probit models can unveil the demographic and behavioural determinants of public support. To account for the potential effect of unobserved heterogeneity within respondents’ perceptions, random parameters were also considered in the ordered probit modelling framework. Initial results showed that residents are generally supportive of most issues surrounding pedestrianisation. Random parameters ordered probit modelling identified mode of travel and trip frequency as significant factors affecting key aspects of public support, such that active travellers were significantly more likely to support pedestrianisation, while those who rarely visit Edinburgh city centre were more likely to oppose pedestrianisation. Overall, a variety of independent analyses and modelling approaches suggest common influences on opinion, including behavioural patterns relating to transport modal choice and trip frequency, while disability was also found to have considerable effect on support as a fixed and random parameter. The statistical models are evaluated in terms of goodness-of-fit measures, before policy implications are discussed.
文摘This research investigates the intricate relationship between the number of lanes on highways and injury severities sustained by commercial motor vehicle(CMV)drivers.Many studies have addressed crash determinants,but the safety implications of differing numbers of lanes remain insufficiently examined,especially during the highway planning stages.Our study fills this knowledge gap by analyzing injury severity crash factors for a varied number of lane scenarios.Employing a random parameter logit modeling framework,we differentiated injury levels for 2-4 lanes and 6-10 lanes.Key factors were identified for each number of lanes,with older,loss of vehicle control,non-collision crashes,and crashes,on locations where grade or hill existed,being more perilous and increasing the risk of sustaining severe injuries on 2-lane highways.For 4-lane highways,factors such as non-Oregonian drivers,older drivers,crashes that occurred during the spring season,and crashes that occurred beyond shoulders were associated with an elevated probability of being involved in severe injury crashes.Regarding highways with 6 lanes and higher,driving too fast for conditions and driver error(drowsy,fatigued,inattentive,or reckless)increases the odds of being involved in higher levels of injury crashes.To enhance truck driver safety,we recommend the implementation of electronic stability control in CMVs,with moderated speeds on graded sections,improved curve markers,and robust public safety campaigns.
文摘Bicycling has been actively promoted as a clean and efficient mode of commute.Besides,due to the personal and societal benefits it provides,it has been adopted by many city dwellers for short-distance trips.Despite the integral role this active transport mode plays,it is unfortunately associated with a high risk of fatalities in the event of a traffic crash as they are not protected.Many studies have been conducted in several jurisdictions to examine the factors contributing to crashes involving these vulnerable road users.In the case of Louisiana which is currently experiencing increased cases of severe and fatal bicycleinvolved crashes,less attention has been paid to investigating the critical factors influencing bicyclist injury severity outcomes using more detailed data and advanced econometric modeling frameworks to help propose adequate policies to improve the safety of riders.Against this background,this study examined the key contributing factors influencing bicyclist injuries by using more detailed roadway crash data spanning 2010-2016 obtained from the state of Louisiana.The study then applies an advanced random parameter logit modeling with heterogeneity in means and variances to address the unobserved heterogeneity issue associated with traffic crash data.To overcome the imbalanced data issue,three major crash injury levels were used instead of the conventional five crash injury levels.Besides,the data groups classified under each injury level were compared for the final variable selection.The study found that distracted drivers,elderly bicyclists,careless operations,and riding in dark conditions increase the probability of having severe injuries in vehicle-bicyclist crashes.Moreover,the variables for straight-level roadways and city streets decrease the odds of severe injuries.The straight-level roadway may provide better sight distance for both drivers and bicyclists,and complex environments like city streets discourage crashes with severe injuries.
