With the increasing integration of large-scale distributed energy resources into the grid,traditional distribution network optimization and dispatch methods struggle to address the challenges posed by both generation ...With the increasing integration of large-scale distributed energy resources into the grid,traditional distribution network optimization and dispatch methods struggle to address the challenges posed by both generation and load.Accounting for these issues,this paper proposes a multi-timescale coordinated optimization dispatch method for distribution networks.First,the probability box theory was employed to determine the uncertainty intervals of generation and load forecasts,based on which,the requirements for flexibility dispatch and capacity constraints of the grid were calculated and analyzed.Subsequently,a multi-timescale optimization framework was constructed,incorporating the generation and load forecast uncertainties.This framework included optimization models for dayahead scheduling,intra-day optimization,and real-time adjustments,aiming to meet flexibility needs across different timescales and improve the economic efficiency of the grid.Furthermore,an improved soft actor-critic algorithm was introduced to enhance the uncertainty exploration capability.Utilizing a centralized training and decentralized execution framework,a multi-agent SAC network model was developed to improve the decision-making efficiency of the agents.Finally,the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method were validated using a modified IEEE-33 bus test system.展开更多
BACKGROUND Currently,there is limited research examining the relationship between anxiety,depression,coping styles,and illness uncertainty in patients with cervical cancer(CC)undergoing radiotherapy.Addressing this ga...BACKGROUND Currently,there is limited research examining the relationship between anxiety,depression,coping styles,and illness uncertainty in patients with cervical cancer(CC)undergoing radiotherapy.Addressing this gap could provide valuable insights and more reliable evidence for clinical practice targeting this patient population.AIM To analyze the anxiety,depression,and coping styles of patients with CC undergoing radiotherapy and explore their correlations with illness uncertainty.METHODS A total of 200 patients with CC undergoing radiotherapy at The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University between June 2018 and June 2022 were enrolled.Anxiety and depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale(HADS),comprising subscales for anxiety(HADS-A)and depression(HADS-D).Coping styles were evaluated using the Jalowiec Coping Scale(JCS-60),comprising dimensions such as confrontive,evasive,optimistic,fatalistic,emotive,palliative,supportive,and self-reliant.Illness uncertainty was measured using the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale(MUIS),encompassing ambiguity,complexity,information deficit,and unpredictability.Correlations among anxiety,depression,coping styles,and illness uncertainty were analyzed.RESULTS During radiotherapy,the mean scores were 7.12±3.39 for HADS-A,6.68±3.49 for HADS-D,1.52±0.23 for JCS-60,and 93.40±7.44 for MUIS.Anxiety(HADS-A≥8)was present in 39.5%of patients,depression(HADS-D≥8)in 41.0%,and both in 14.0%.Anxiety was significantly positively correlated with ambiguity,unpredictability,and total MUIS score(P<0.05).Depression was significantly positively correlated with ambiguity,information deficit,unpredictability,and total MUIS score(P<0.05).Most patients adopted an optimistic coping style,whereas the emotive style was least utilized.Evasive,fatalistic,and emotive coping styles were significantly positively correlated with illness uncertainty,whereas the self-reliant style was significantly negatively correlated with unpredictability(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Anxiety,depression,and coping styles in patients with CC undergoing radiotherapy correlate significantly with their level of illness uncertainty.Medical staff should address patients’psychological status and coping strategies by providing targeted information to reduce negative emotions,foster adaptive coping styles,and decrease illness uncertainty.展开更多
BACKGROUND Uncertainty in illness(UI)and fear of progression(FoP)are significant psycho-logical challenges for lung cancer patients.Coping styles and social support are critical mediators,influencing patients'abil...BACKGROUND Uncertainty in illness(UI)and fear of progression(FoP)are significant psycho-logical challenges for lung cancer patients.Coping styles and social support are critical mediators,influencing patients'ability to manage the emotional and psy-chological burden of UI and FoP.However,limited research has explored the chain mediation effect of these factors on the relationship between UI and FoP,particularly among Chinese lung cancer patients.Convenience sampling was used to recruit inpatients diagnosed with lung cancer at a tertiary hospital in Changde City between November and December 2023.A total of 320 participants completed the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale,Simp-lified Coping Style Questionnaire,Mandarin Chinese Version of the Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey,and Fear of Progression Questionnaire-Short Form.The chain mediation analysis was performed using the PROCESS macro to examine the relationships between the variables.RESULTS The results revealed that UI had a significant direct effect on FoP(effect=0.224,95%CI:0.136-0.408).Additionally,three indirect pathways were identified:(1)Social support(effect=0.128,95%CI:0.045-0.153);(2)Coping style(effect=0.115,95%CI:0.048-0.157);and(3)Chain mediators involving social support and coping style(effect=0.072,95%CI:0.045-0.120).The total indirect effect of the three mediation paths is 31.5%.These results confirm that social support and coping style significantly mediate the relationship between UI and FoP.CONCLUSION Based on cross-sectional data and a chain mediation model,this study explored the mechanisms between UI,social support,coping style,and FOP.Patients with lung cancer have higher levels of FOP,and the results of this study revealed a correlation between these four factors.Social support and coping style partially mediated the effects of UI on FOP,and there was a chain-mediating effect between UI and FOP.Programs designed to strengthen social support networks should also incorporate training to develop adaptive coping strategies,ultimately reducing FOP and improving overall quality of life.展开更多
We examine technology ETF and uncertainty index(VIX,GVZ,and OVZ)spillover dynamics and quantile frequency interconnectedness across market states.This study is the first to use quantile-frequency spillover,quadruple w...We examine technology ETF and uncertainty index(VIX,GVZ,and OVZ)spillover dynamics and quantile frequency interconnectedness across market states.This study is the first to use quantile-frequency spillover,quadruple wavelet coherence,and wavelet quantile correlation methodologies to facilitate these analyses.The total connectedness index value is 70%,which is much higher in both the upper and lower quantiles.Under normal market conditions,short-term connectedness significantly exceeds long-term connectedness.Levels of ETF-uncertainty indicator connectedness increase under extreme market conditions;most technology ETFs are net spillover transmitters and uncertainty indices net spillover receivers,indicating the contagion risk of ETF investments.We show that while greater ETF-uncertainty index connectedness may benefit portfolio diversification,large fluctuations in technology EFTs can result in financial instability due to high market volatility.In the long term,the joint effects of uncertainty indices on ETFs are significant,with negative correlations between ETFs and uncertainties at different frequencies,supporting the potential role of uncertainty indices in hedging technology ETF portfolio risks.Dynamic portfolio rebalancing,scenario analysis,and stress testing may help to manage the effects of high connectedness.展开更多
The practical predictability of hail precipitation rates is significantly influenced by initial meteorological perturbations,stemming from various uncertainty sources.This study thoroughly assessed the predictability ...The practical predictability of hail precipitation rates is significantly influenced by initial meteorological perturbations,stemming from various uncertainty sources.This study thoroughly assessed the predictability of hail precipitation rates in both climatologically and flow-dependent perturbed ensembles(CEns and FEns).These ensembles incorporated initial meteorological uncertainties derived separately from two operational ensembles.Leveraging the Weather Research and Forecasting model,we conducted cloud-resolving simulations of an idealized hailstorm.The practical predictability of hail responded comparably to both climatological and flow-dependent uncertainties,which was revealed across the entire ensemble of 50 members.However,a notable difference emerged when comparing the peak hail precipitation rates among the top 10 and bottom 10 members.From a thermodynamic perspective,the primary source of uncertainty in hail precipitation lay in the significant variations in temperature stratification,particularly at-20℃and-40℃.On the microphysical front,perturbations within CEns generated greater uncertainty in the process of rainwater collection by hail,contributing significantly to the microphysical growth mechanisms of hail.Furthermore,the findings reveal a stronger dependency of hail precipitation uncertainty on thermodynamic perturbations compared to kinematic perturbations.These insights enhance the comprehension of the practical predictability of hail and contribute significantly to the understanding of ensemble forecasting for hail events.展开更多
Interpreting is a fast-paced activity where interpreters must make quick choices when faced with uncertainty. This study looks at how professional interpreters handle linguistic uncertainty in English-Chinese sight tr...Interpreting is a fast-paced activity where interpreters must make quick choices when faced with uncertainty. This study looks at how professional interpreters handle linguistic uncertainty in English-Chinese sight translation, with a focus on the strategies they use. By analyzing transcription data alongside instructor evaluations, we found that interpreters relied most on creative interpretation and omission, while strategies like paraphrasing, simplification, transformation, addition, and generalization appeared less often. The results show a clear preference for strategies that keep communication flowing without adding unnecessary cognitive load. These findings support the Processing Economy Hypothesis, which suggests interpreters naturally seek efficient ways to process language while maintaining meaning. The study also highlights practical implications for interpreter training, emphasizing the value of flexible, economy-oriented strategies to help interpreters stay fluent under pressure.展开更多
When assessing seismic liquefaction potential with data-driven models,addressing the uncertainties of establishing models,interpreting cone penetration tests(CPT)data and decision threshold is crucial for avoiding bia...When assessing seismic liquefaction potential with data-driven models,addressing the uncertainties of establishing models,interpreting cone penetration tests(CPT)data and decision threshold is crucial for avoiding biased data selection,ameliorating overconfident models,and being flexible to varying practical objectives,especially when the training and testing data are not identically distributed.A workflow characterized by leveraging Bayesian methodology was proposed to address these issues.Employing a Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP)as the foundational model,this approach was benchmarked against empirical methods and advanced algorithms for its efficacy in simplicity,accuracy,and resistance to overfitting.The analysis revealed that,while MLP models optimized via maximum a posteriori algorithm suffices for straightforward scenarios,Bayesian neural networks showed great potential for preventing overfitting.Additionally,integrating decision thresholds through various evaluative principles offers insights for challenging decisions.Two case studies demonstrate the framework's capacity for nuanced interpretation of in situ data,employing a model committee for a detailed evaluation of liquefaction potential via Monte Carlo simulations and basic statistics.Overall,the proposed step-by-step workflow for analyzing seismic liquefaction incorporates multifold testing and real-world data validation,showing improved robustness against overfitting and greater versatility in addressing practical challenges.This research contributes to the seismic liquefaction assessment field by providing a structured,adaptable methodology for accurate and reliable analysis.展开更多
Cropland nitrate leaching is the major nitrogen(N) loss pathway, and it contributes significantly to water pollution. However, cropland nitrate leaching estimates show great uncertainty due to variations in input data...Cropland nitrate leaching is the major nitrogen(N) loss pathway, and it contributes significantly to water pollution. However, cropland nitrate leaching estimates show great uncertainty due to variations in input datasets and estimation methods. Here, we presented a re-evaluation of Chinese cropland nitrate leaching, and identified and quantified the sources of uncertainty by integrating three cropland area datasets, three N input datasets, and three estimation methods. The results revealed that nitrate leaching from Chinese cropland averaged 6.7±0.6 Tg N yr^(-1)in 2010, ranging from 2.9 to 15.8 Tg N yr^(-1)across 27 different estimates. The primary contributor to the uncertainty was the estimation method, accounting for 45.1%, followed by the interaction of N input dataset and estimation method at 24.4%. The results of this study emphasize the need for adopting a robust estimation method and improving the compatibility between the estimation method and N input dataset to effectively reduce uncertainty. This analysis provides valuable insights for accurately estimating cropland nitrate leaching and contributes to ongoing efforts that address water pollution concerns.展开更多
Humans and animals have a fundamental ability to use experiences and environmental information to organize behavior.It often happens that humans and animals make decisions and prepare actions under uncertain situation...Humans and animals have a fundamental ability to use experiences and environmental information to organize behavior.It often happens that humans and animals make decisions and prepare actions under uncertain situations.Uncertainty would significantly affect the state of animals’minds,but may not be reflected in behavior.How to“read animals’mind state”under different situations is a challenge.Here,we report that neuronal activity in the medial prefrontal cortex(mPFC)of rats can reflect the environmental uncertainty when the task situation changes from certain to uncertain.Rats were trained to perform behavioral tasks under certain and uncertain situations.Under certain situations,rats were required to simply repeat two nose-poking actions that each triggered short auditory tone feedback(single-task situation).Whereas under the uncertain situation,the feedback could randomly be either the previous tone or a short musical rhythm.No additional action was required upon the music feedback,and the same secondary nose-poking action was required upon the tone feedback(dual-task situation);therefore,the coming task was uncertain before action initiation.We recorded single-unit activity from the mPFC when the rats were performing the tasks.We found that in the dual task,when uncertainty was introduced,many mPFC neurons were actively engaged in dealing with the uncertainty before the task initiation,suggesting that the rats could be aware of the task situation change and encode the information in the mPFC before the action of task initiation.展开更多
Generative adversarial network(GAN)models are widely used in mechanical designs.The aim in the airfoil shape design is to obtain shapes that exhibits the required aerodynamic performance,and conditional GAN is used fo...Generative adversarial network(GAN)models are widely used in mechanical designs.The aim in the airfoil shape design is to obtain shapes that exhibits the required aerodynamic performance,and conditional GAN is used for that aim.However,the output of GAN contains uncertainties.Additionally,the uncertainties of labels have not been quantified.This paper proposes an uncertainty quantification method to estimate the uncertainty of labels using Monte Carlo dropout.In addition,an uncertainty reduction method is proposed based on imbalanced training.The proposed method was evaluated for the airfoil generation task.The results indicated that the uncertainty was appropriately quantified and successfully reduced.展开更多
Using the glucose and L-glutamic-acid to prepare the standard substance according to the ratio of 1：1, and the artificial seawater and the standard substance to prepare a series of standard solutions, the distributio...Using the glucose and L-glutamic-acid to prepare the standard substance according to the ratio of 1：1, and the artificial seawater and the standard substance to prepare a series of standard solutions, the distribution pattern of uncertainty in measurement of seawater COD is obtained based on the measured results of the series of standard solutions by the potassium iodide-alkaline potassium permanganate determination method. The distribution pattern is as follows： Uncertainty in measurement is big and not constant at the high end, but small and constant at the low end.展开更多
BACKGROUND Stroke has a great influence on the patient’s mental health,and reasonable psychological adjustment and disease perception can promote the recovery of mental health.AIM To explore the relationships among r...BACKGROUND Stroke has a great influence on the patient’s mental health,and reasonable psychological adjustment and disease perception can promote the recovery of mental health.AIM To explore the relationships among resilience,coping style,and uncertainty in illness of stroke patients.METHODS A retrospective study was used to investigate 154 stroke patients who were diagnosed and treated at eight medical institutes in Henan province,China from October to December 2019.We used the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale,the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale,and the Medical Coping Modes Questionnaire to test the uncertainty in illness,resilience,and coping style,respectively.RESULTS Resilience had a significant moderating role in the correlation between coping style and unpredictability and information deficiency for uncertainty in illness(P<0.05).Further,the tenacity and strength dimensions of resilience mediated the correlation between the confrontation coping style and complexity,respectively(P<0.05).The strength dimension of resilience mediated the correlation between an avoidance coping style and the unpredictability of uncertainty in illness(P<0.05),as well as correlated with resignation,complexity,and unpredictability(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Resilience has moderating and mediating roles in the associations between coping style and uncertainty in illness,indicating that it is vital to improve resilience and consider positive coping styles for stroke patients in the prevention and control of uncertainty in illness.展开更多
Numerical simulation of concrete-faced rockfill dams(CFRDs)considering the spatial variability of rockfill has become a popular research topic in recent years.In order to determine uncertain rockfill properties effici...Numerical simulation of concrete-faced rockfill dams(CFRDs)considering the spatial variability of rockfill has become a popular research topic in recent years.In order to determine uncertain rockfill properties efficiently and reliably,this study developed an uncertainty inversion analysis method for rockfill material parameters using the stacking ensemble strategy and Jaya optimizer.The comprehensive implementation process of the proposed model was described with an illustrative CFRD example.First,the surrogate model method using the stacking ensemble algorithm was used to conduct the Monte Carlo stochastic finite element calculations with reduced computational cost and improved accuracy.Afterwards,the Jaya algorithm was used to inversely calculate the combination of the coefficient of variation of rockfill material parameters.This optimizer obtained higher accuracy and more significant uncertainty reduction than traditional optimizers.Overall,the developed model effectively identified the random parameters of rockfill materials.This study provided scientific references for uncertainty analysis of CFRDs.In addition,the proposed method can be applied to other similar engineering structures.展开更多
Objective:To investigate the relationship between uncertainty in illness,mood state and coping style in patients with temporomandibular disorders(TMD)in the hospital,in order to identify nursing measures.Methods:Chine...Objective:To investigate the relationship between uncertainty in illness,mood state and coping style in patients with temporomandibular disorders(TMD)in the hospital,in order to identify nursing measures.Methods:Chinese versions of the Mishel Uncertainty In Illness Scale(MUIS),Brief Profile Of Mood States(BPOMS)and Medical Coping Modes Questionnaire(MCMQ)were used to assess uncertainty in illness,mood state and coping style,respectively,in 126 patients with TMD.Results:The total score of uncertainty in illness of the patients was 91.33±16.38,which was at middle level.The total score of mood state was 37.93±17.0.The order of coping style rated from high to low was confrontation(18.81±3.65),avoidance(15.44±4.26)and acceptance(10.41±5.04).Acceptance was positively correlated with uncertainty in illness(r=0.463,p<0.001),and mood state(r=0.187,p<0.05).Avoidance and confrontation were negatively correlated with uncertainty in illness and mood state(r=0.286,p<0.01),(r=0.175,p<0.05),(r=0.171,p<0.05),(r=0.221,p<0.01).Conclusions:Both uncertainty in illness and mood state were related to coping style.These data suggest that nurses should be trained to offer appropriate guidance to help decrease patients'uncertainty in illness and relieve their negative emotions.展开更多
[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the uncertainty in measuring the construct-specific fragments of genetically modified maize MON863 by real time quantitative PCR.[Method] The content of construct-specific fra...[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the uncertainty in measuring the construct-specific fragments of genetically modified maize MON863 by real time quantitative PCR.[Method] The content of construct-specific fragments in MON863 samples was determined by real time quantitative PCR,and then the uncertainty of measurement result was evaluated according to the sources of uncertainty like the PCR system,the data processing and the micropipette.[Result] Type A evaluation of uncertainty（uA） in the measurement was 1.7×10^-2;Type B evaluation of uncertainty（uB） was 9.0×10^-4;the combined standard uncertainty（uC） was 1.7×10^-2;the expanded uncertainty（U95） was 0.036 and the finally measured result was 1.08%±0.036.[Conclusion] The main uncertainty of the result measured by real time quantitative PCR came from the randomizing effect in the experimental process.展开更多
Objective:This study aimed to explore the relationship between uncertainty in illness,state anxiety,and the life satisfaction of college students during the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods:A cluster random sampling method w...Objective:This study aimed to explore the relationship between uncertainty in illness,state anxiety,and the life satisfaction of college students during the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods:A cluster random sampling method was employed to select a total of 1522 college students from seven universities in China.The uncertainty in illness scale,state anxiety scale,and life satisfaction scale were used.Results:Uncertainty in illness had a negative effect on life satisfaction.Uncertainty in illness had a positive effect on state anxiety.State anxiety had a negative effect on life satisfaction.State anxiety played an important mediating role in the relationship between uncertainty in illness and life satisfaction-its mediating effect accounted for 17.43%of the total effect.Conclusion:A simple mediation model revealed that uncertainty in illness exerts influence both directly on life satisfaction and indirectly via state anxiety.Based upon these elucidated examples,several countermeasures and suggestions for life satisfaction are proposed.展开更多
Based on the time-convolutionless master-equation approach, the entropic uncertainty in the presence of quantum memory is investigated for a two-atom system in two dissipative cavities. We find that the entropic uncer...Based on the time-convolutionless master-equation approach, the entropic uncertainty in the presence of quantum memory is investigated for a two-atom system in two dissipative cavities. We find that the entropic uncertainty can be controlled by the non-Markovian effect and the atom-cavity coupling. The results show that increasing the atom-cavity coupling can enlarge the oscillating frequencies of the entropic uncertainty and can decrease the minimal value of the entropic uncertainty. Enhancing the non-Markovian effect can reduce the minimal value of the entropic uncertainty. In particular, if the atom-cavity coupling or the non-Markovian effect is very strong, the entropic uncertainty will be very dose to zero at certain time points, thus Bob can minimize his uncertainty about Alice＇s measurement outcomes,展开更多
Driven by the increase in CO_(2)concentration,climate models reach a consensus that the large-scale circulation of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) becomes weakened but with different magnitudes.This study investi...Driven by the increase in CO_(2)concentration,climate models reach a consensus that the large-scale circulation of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) becomes weakened but with different magnitudes.This study investigates the major uncertainty sources of the SASM response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO_(2)(abrupt-4×CO_(2))in 18 models of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.The projected weakening of the SASM indicated by both zonal and meridional monsoon circulation indices is closely linked to decreases in the meridional gradient of upper-tropospheric temperature between Eurasia and the Indian Ocean(EUTT-IUTT).A climate feedback-response analysis method is applied to linearly decompose the uncertainty of changes in EUTT-IUTT into the partial changes due to external forcing and internal processes of the earth-atmosphere column.Results show that the uncertainty of changes in EUTT-IUTT is contributed positively by the dominant atmospheric dynamic process,followed by the cloud shortwave radiative effect,and negatively by the surface latent heat flux and cloud longwave radiative effect.Contributions from CO_(2)forcing and other internal processes including albedo and water vapor feedbacks,oceanic heat storage,and sensible heat flux are found to be minor.展开更多
This study investigates tail dependence among five major cryptocurrencies,namely Bitcoin,Ethereum,Litecoin,Ripple,and Bitcoin Cash,and uncertainties in the gold,oil,and equity markets.Using the cross-quantilogram meth...This study investigates tail dependence among five major cryptocurrencies,namely Bitcoin,Ethereum,Litecoin,Ripple,and Bitcoin Cash,and uncertainties in the gold,oil,and equity markets.Using the cross-quantilogram method and quantile connectedness approach,we identify cross-quantile interdependence between the analyzed variables.Our results show that the spillover between cryptocurrencies and volatility indices for the major traditional markets varies substantially across quantiles,implying that diversification benefits for these assets may differ widely across normal and extreme market conditions.Under normal market conditions,the total connectedness index is moderate and falls below the elevated values observed under bearish and bullish market conditions.Moreover,we show that under all market conditions,cryptocurrencies have a leadership influence over the volatility indices.Our results have important policy implications for enhancing financial stability and deliver valuable insights for deploying volatility-based financial instruments that can potentially provide cryptocurrency investors with suitable hedges,as we show that cryptocurrency and volatility markets are insignificantly(weakly)connected under normal(extreme)market conditions.展开更多
This study investigates the predictability of a fixed uncertainty index(UI)for realized variances(volatility)in the international stock markets from a high-frequency perspective.We construct a composite UI based on th...This study investigates the predictability of a fixed uncertainty index(UI)for realized variances(volatility)in the international stock markets from a high-frequency perspective.We construct a composite UI based on the scaled principal component analysis(s-PCA)method and demonstrate that it exhibits significant in-and out-of-sample predictabilities for realized variances in global stock markets.This predictive power is more powerful than those of two commonly employed competing methods,namely,PCA and the partial least squares(PLS)methods.The result is robust in several checks.Further,we explain that s-PCA outperforms other dimension-reduction methods since it can effectively increase the impacts of strong predictors and decrease those of weak factors.The implications of this research are significant for investors who allocate assets globally.展开更多
基金funded by Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Plan Project,grant number 20220203163SF.
文摘With the increasing integration of large-scale distributed energy resources into the grid,traditional distribution network optimization and dispatch methods struggle to address the challenges posed by both generation and load.Accounting for these issues,this paper proposes a multi-timescale coordinated optimization dispatch method for distribution networks.First,the probability box theory was employed to determine the uncertainty intervals of generation and load forecasts,based on which,the requirements for flexibility dispatch and capacity constraints of the grid were calculated and analyzed.Subsequently,a multi-timescale optimization framework was constructed,incorporating the generation and load forecast uncertainties.This framework included optimization models for dayahead scheduling,intra-day optimization,and real-time adjustments,aiming to meet flexibility needs across different timescales and improve the economic efficiency of the grid.Furthermore,an improved soft actor-critic algorithm was introduced to enhance the uncertainty exploration capability.Utilizing a centralized training and decentralized execution framework,a multi-agent SAC network model was developed to improve the decision-making efficiency of the agents.Finally,the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method were validated using a modified IEEE-33 bus test system.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81602792The Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China,No.23KJB310023+5 种基金Jiangsu Provincial Medical Key Discipline,No.ZDXK202235The Maternal and Child Health Research Project of Jiangsu Province,No.F202210The Project of State Key Laboratory of Radiation Medicine and Protection,Soochow University,No.GZK1202101Suzhou Science and Technology Development Plan Project,No.KJXW2020008BOXI Natural Science Cultivation Foundation of China of The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University,No.BXQN202107Clinical Diagnosis and Treatment Technology Innovation Project Youth Characteristic Technology Project of The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University,No.2100201.
文摘BACKGROUND Currently,there is limited research examining the relationship between anxiety,depression,coping styles,and illness uncertainty in patients with cervical cancer(CC)undergoing radiotherapy.Addressing this gap could provide valuable insights and more reliable evidence for clinical practice targeting this patient population.AIM To analyze the anxiety,depression,and coping styles of patients with CC undergoing radiotherapy and explore their correlations with illness uncertainty.METHODS A total of 200 patients with CC undergoing radiotherapy at The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University between June 2018 and June 2022 were enrolled.Anxiety and depression were assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale(HADS),comprising subscales for anxiety(HADS-A)and depression(HADS-D).Coping styles were evaluated using the Jalowiec Coping Scale(JCS-60),comprising dimensions such as confrontive,evasive,optimistic,fatalistic,emotive,palliative,supportive,and self-reliant.Illness uncertainty was measured using the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale(MUIS),encompassing ambiguity,complexity,information deficit,and unpredictability.Correlations among anxiety,depression,coping styles,and illness uncertainty were analyzed.RESULTS During radiotherapy,the mean scores were 7.12±3.39 for HADS-A,6.68±3.49 for HADS-D,1.52±0.23 for JCS-60,and 93.40±7.44 for MUIS.Anxiety(HADS-A≥8)was present in 39.5%of patients,depression(HADS-D≥8)in 41.0%,and both in 14.0%.Anxiety was significantly positively correlated with ambiguity,unpredictability,and total MUIS score(P<0.05).Depression was significantly positively correlated with ambiguity,information deficit,unpredictability,and total MUIS score(P<0.05).Most patients adopted an optimistic coping style,whereas the emotive style was least utilized.Evasive,fatalistic,and emotive coping styles were significantly positively correlated with illness uncertainty,whereas the self-reliant style was significantly negatively correlated with unpredictability(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Anxiety,depression,and coping styles in patients with CC undergoing radiotherapy correlate significantly with their level of illness uncertainty.Medical staff should address patients’psychological status and coping strategies by providing targeted information to reduce negative emotions,foster adaptive coping styles,and decrease illness uncertainty.
基金Supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China,No.2024JJ9579 and No.2025JJ80410The Science and Technology Innovation Program of Changde City,No.2023YD23.
文摘BACKGROUND Uncertainty in illness(UI)and fear of progression(FoP)are significant psycho-logical challenges for lung cancer patients.Coping styles and social support are critical mediators,influencing patients'ability to manage the emotional and psy-chological burden of UI and FoP.However,limited research has explored the chain mediation effect of these factors on the relationship between UI and FoP,particularly among Chinese lung cancer patients.Convenience sampling was used to recruit inpatients diagnosed with lung cancer at a tertiary hospital in Changde City between November and December 2023.A total of 320 participants completed the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale,Simp-lified Coping Style Questionnaire,Mandarin Chinese Version of the Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey,and Fear of Progression Questionnaire-Short Form.The chain mediation analysis was performed using the PROCESS macro to examine the relationships between the variables.RESULTS The results revealed that UI had a significant direct effect on FoP(effect=0.224,95%CI:0.136-0.408).Additionally,three indirect pathways were identified:(1)Social support(effect=0.128,95%CI:0.045-0.153);(2)Coping style(effect=0.115,95%CI:0.048-0.157);and(3)Chain mediators involving social support and coping style(effect=0.072,95%CI:0.045-0.120).The total indirect effect of the three mediation paths is 31.5%.These results confirm that social support and coping style significantly mediate the relationship between UI and FoP.CONCLUSION Based on cross-sectional data and a chain mediation model,this study explored the mechanisms between UI,social support,coping style,and FOP.Patients with lung cancer have higher levels of FOP,and the results of this study revealed a correlation between these four factors.Social support and coping style partially mediated the effects of UI on FOP,and there was a chain-mediating effect between UI and FOP.Programs designed to strengthen social support networks should also incorporate training to develop adaptive coping strategies,ultimately reducing FOP and improving overall quality of life.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF-2024S1A5A2A01028034).
文摘We examine technology ETF and uncertainty index(VIX,GVZ,and OVZ)spillover dynamics and quantile frequency interconnectedness across market states.This study is the first to use quantile-frequency spillover,quadruple wavelet coherence,and wavelet quantile correlation methodologies to facilitate these analyses.The total connectedness index value is 70%,which is much higher in both the upper and lower quantiles.Under normal market conditions,short-term connectedness significantly exceeds long-term connectedness.Levels of ETF-uncertainty indicator connectedness increase under extreme market conditions;most technology ETFs are net spillover transmitters and uncertainty indices net spillover receivers,indicating the contagion risk of ETF investments.We show that while greater ETF-uncertainty index connectedness may benefit portfolio diversification,large fluctuations in technology EFTs can result in financial instability due to high market volatility.In the long term,the joint effects of uncertainty indices on ETFs are significant,with negative correlations between ETFs and uncertainties at different frequencies,supporting the potential role of uncertainty indices in hedging technology ETF portfolio risks.Dynamic portfolio rebalancing,scenario analysis,and stress testing may help to manage the effects of high connectedness.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42005005 and 42030607)the Science and Technology Department of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.2024JC-YBQN-0248)+2 种基金the Education Department of Shaanxi Province(Grant No.23JK0686)a Xi'an Science and Technology Project(Grant No.22GXFW0131)the Young Talent fund of the University Association for Science and Technology in Shaanxi(Grant No.20210706)。
文摘The practical predictability of hail precipitation rates is significantly influenced by initial meteorological perturbations,stemming from various uncertainty sources.This study thoroughly assessed the predictability of hail precipitation rates in both climatologically and flow-dependent perturbed ensembles(CEns and FEns).These ensembles incorporated initial meteorological uncertainties derived separately from two operational ensembles.Leveraging the Weather Research and Forecasting model,we conducted cloud-resolving simulations of an idealized hailstorm.The practical predictability of hail responded comparably to both climatological and flow-dependent uncertainties,which was revealed across the entire ensemble of 50 members.However,a notable difference emerged when comparing the peak hail precipitation rates among the top 10 and bottom 10 members.From a thermodynamic perspective,the primary source of uncertainty in hail precipitation lay in the significant variations in temperature stratification,particularly at-20℃and-40℃.On the microphysical front,perturbations within CEns generated greater uncertainty in the process of rainwater collection by hail,contributing significantly to the microphysical growth mechanisms of hail.Furthermore,the findings reveal a stronger dependency of hail precipitation uncertainty on thermodynamic perturbations compared to kinematic perturbations.These insights enhance the comprehension of the practical predictability of hail and contribute significantly to the understanding of ensemble forecasting for hail events.
基金this paper was supported by Humanities and Social Science Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education,China[23YJC740018]。
文摘Interpreting is a fast-paced activity where interpreters must make quick choices when faced with uncertainty. This study looks at how professional interpreters handle linguistic uncertainty in English-Chinese sight translation, with a focus on the strategies they use. By analyzing transcription data alongside instructor evaluations, we found that interpreters relied most on creative interpretation and omission, while strategies like paraphrasing, simplification, transformation, addition, and generalization appeared less often. The results show a clear preference for strategies that keep communication flowing without adding unnecessary cognitive load. These findings support the Processing Economy Hypothesis, which suggests interpreters naturally seek efficient ways to process language while maintaining meaning. The study also highlights practical implications for interpreter training, emphasizing the value of flexible, economy-oriented strategies to help interpreters stay fluent under pressure.
文摘When assessing seismic liquefaction potential with data-driven models,addressing the uncertainties of establishing models,interpreting cone penetration tests(CPT)data and decision threshold is crucial for avoiding biased data selection,ameliorating overconfident models,and being flexible to varying practical objectives,especially when the training and testing data are not identically distributed.A workflow characterized by leveraging Bayesian methodology was proposed to address these issues.Employing a Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP)as the foundational model,this approach was benchmarked against empirical methods and advanced algorithms for its efficacy in simplicity,accuracy,and resistance to overfitting.The analysis revealed that,while MLP models optimized via maximum a posteriori algorithm suffices for straightforward scenarios,Bayesian neural networks showed great potential for preventing overfitting.Additionally,integrating decision thresholds through various evaluative principles offers insights for challenging decisions.Two case studies demonstrate the framework's capacity for nuanced interpretation of in situ data,employing a model committee for a detailed evaluation of liquefaction potential via Monte Carlo simulations and basic statistics.Overall,the proposed step-by-step workflow for analyzing seismic liquefaction incorporates multifold testing and real-world data validation,showing improved robustness against overfitting and greater versatility in addressing practical challenges.This research contributes to the seismic liquefaction assessment field by providing a structured,adaptable methodology for accurate and reliable analysis.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFD1902703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Key Program) (U23A20158)。
文摘Cropland nitrate leaching is the major nitrogen(N) loss pathway, and it contributes significantly to water pollution. However, cropland nitrate leaching estimates show great uncertainty due to variations in input datasets and estimation methods. Here, we presented a re-evaluation of Chinese cropland nitrate leaching, and identified and quantified the sources of uncertainty by integrating three cropland area datasets, three N input datasets, and three estimation methods. The results revealed that nitrate leaching from Chinese cropland averaged 6.7±0.6 Tg N yr^(-1)in 2010, ranging from 2.9 to 15.8 Tg N yr^(-1)across 27 different estimates. The primary contributor to the uncertainty was the estimation method, accounting for 45.1%, followed by the interaction of N input dataset and estimation method at 24.4%. The results of this study emphasize the need for adopting a robust estimation method and improving the compatibility between the estimation method and N input dataset to effectively reduce uncertainty. This analysis provides valuable insights for accurately estimating cropland nitrate leaching and contributes to ongoing efforts that address water pollution concerns.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32060199,32360197,31971035,and 31771182)the Jiangxi Province Natural Science Foundation(20224ACB206016).
文摘Humans and animals have a fundamental ability to use experiences and environmental information to organize behavior.It often happens that humans and animals make decisions and prepare actions under uncertain situations.Uncertainty would significantly affect the state of animals’minds,but may not be reflected in behavior.How to“read animals’mind state”under different situations is a challenge.Here,we report that neuronal activity in the medial prefrontal cortex(mPFC)of rats can reflect the environmental uncertainty when the task situation changes from certain to uncertain.Rats were trained to perform behavioral tasks under certain and uncertain situations.Under certain situations,rats were required to simply repeat two nose-poking actions that each triggered short auditory tone feedback(single-task situation).Whereas under the uncertain situation,the feedback could randomly be either the previous tone or a short musical rhythm.No additional action was required upon the music feedback,and the same secondary nose-poking action was required upon the tone feedback(dual-task situation);therefore,the coming task was uncertain before action initiation.We recorded single-unit activity from the mPFC when the rats were performing the tasks.We found that in the dual task,when uncertainty was introduced,many mPFC neurons were actively engaged in dealing with the uncertainty before the task initiation,suggesting that the rats could be aware of the task situation change and encode the information in the mPFC before the action of task initiation.
基金supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research(Grant Nos.JP21K14064 and JP23K13239).
文摘Generative adversarial network(GAN)models are widely used in mechanical designs.The aim in the airfoil shape design is to obtain shapes that exhibits the required aerodynamic performance,and conditional GAN is used for that aim.However,the output of GAN contains uncertainties.Additionally,the uncertainties of labels have not been quantified.This paper proposes an uncertainty quantification method to estimate the uncertainty of labels using Monte Carlo dropout.In addition,an uncertainty reduction method is proposed based on imbalanced training.The proposed method was evaluated for the airfoil generation task.The results indicated that the uncertainty was appropriately quantified and successfully reduced.
文摘Using the glucose and L-glutamic-acid to prepare the standard substance according to the ratio of 1：1, and the artificial seawater and the standard substance to prepare a series of standard solutions, the distribution pattern of uncertainty in measurement of seawater COD is obtained based on the measured results of the series of standard solutions by the potassium iodide-alkaline potassium permanganate determination method. The distribution pattern is as follows： Uncertainty in measurement is big and not constant at the high end, but small and constant at the low end.
基金Supported by The Humanities and Social Sciences Research Program of the Henan Province Education Department in 2017,No.2017-ZZJH-439.
文摘BACKGROUND Stroke has a great influence on the patient’s mental health,and reasonable psychological adjustment and disease perception can promote the recovery of mental health.AIM To explore the relationships among resilience,coping style,and uncertainty in illness of stroke patients.METHODS A retrospective study was used to investigate 154 stroke patients who were diagnosed and treated at eight medical institutes in Henan province,China from October to December 2019.We used the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale,the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale,and the Medical Coping Modes Questionnaire to test the uncertainty in illness,resilience,and coping style,respectively.RESULTS Resilience had a significant moderating role in the correlation between coping style and unpredictability and information deficiency for uncertainty in illness(P<0.05).Further,the tenacity and strength dimensions of resilience mediated the correlation between the confrontation coping style and complexity,respectively(P<0.05).The strength dimension of resilience mediated the correlation between an avoidance coping style and the unpredictability of uncertainty in illness(P<0.05),as well as correlated with resignation,complexity,and unpredictability(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Resilience has moderating and mediating roles in the associations between coping style and uncertainty in illness,indicating that it is vital to improve resilience and consider positive coping styles for stroke patients in the prevention and control of uncertainty in illness.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51879185 and 52179139)the Open Fund of the Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering(Grant No.2020KSD06).
文摘Numerical simulation of concrete-faced rockfill dams(CFRDs)considering the spatial variability of rockfill has become a popular research topic in recent years.In order to determine uncertain rockfill properties efficiently and reliably,this study developed an uncertainty inversion analysis method for rockfill material parameters using the stacking ensemble strategy and Jaya optimizer.The comprehensive implementation process of the proposed model was described with an illustrative CFRD example.First,the surrogate model method using the stacking ensemble algorithm was used to conduct the Monte Carlo stochastic finite element calculations with reduced computational cost and improved accuracy.Afterwards,the Jaya algorithm was used to inversely calculate the combination of the coefficient of variation of rockfill material parameters.This optimizer obtained higher accuracy and more significant uncertainty reduction than traditional optimizers.Overall,the developed model effectively identified the random parameters of rockfill materials.This study provided scientific references for uncertainty analysis of CFRDs.In addition,the proposed method can be applied to other similar engineering structures.
文摘Objective:To investigate the relationship between uncertainty in illness,mood state and coping style in patients with temporomandibular disorders(TMD)in the hospital,in order to identify nursing measures.Methods:Chinese versions of the Mishel Uncertainty In Illness Scale(MUIS),Brief Profile Of Mood States(BPOMS)and Medical Coping Modes Questionnaire(MCMQ)were used to assess uncertainty in illness,mood state and coping style,respectively,in 126 patients with TMD.Results:The total score of uncertainty in illness of the patients was 91.33±16.38,which was at middle level.The total score of mood state was 37.93±17.0.The order of coping style rated from high to low was confrontation(18.81±3.65),avoidance(15.44±4.26)and acceptance(10.41±5.04).Acceptance was positively correlated with uncertainty in illness(r=0.463,p<0.001),and mood state(r=0.187,p<0.05).Avoidance and confrontation were negatively correlated with uncertainty in illness and mood state(r=0.286,p<0.01),(r=0.175,p<0.05),(r=0.171,p<0.05),(r=0.221,p<0.01).Conclusions:Both uncertainty in illness and mood state were related to coping style.These data suggest that nurses should be trained to offer appropriate guidance to help decrease patients'uncertainty in illness and relieve their negative emotions.
基金Supported by the Fund from Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences for Distinguished Young Scholars (2009QNJJ-037)a Grantfor Adventive Species Monitoring from Ministry of Agriculture~~
文摘[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the uncertainty in measuring the construct-specific fragments of genetically modified maize MON863 by real time quantitative PCR.[Method] The content of construct-specific fragments in MON863 samples was determined by real time quantitative PCR,and then the uncertainty of measurement result was evaluated according to the sources of uncertainty like the PCR system,the data processing and the micropipette.[Result] Type A evaluation of uncertainty（uA） in the measurement was 1.7×10^-2;Type B evaluation of uncertainty（uB） was 9.0×10^-4;the combined standard uncertainty（uC） was 1.7×10^-2;the expanded uncertainty（U95） was 0.036 and the finally measured result was 1.08%±0.036.[Conclusion] The main uncertainty of the result measured by real time quantitative PCR came from the randomizing effect in the experimental process.
基金the Primary Health Development Research Center of Sichuan ProvinceProgram(SWFZ20-Q-041)the Sichuan Research Center for Applied Psychology Program (CSXL-202A01)the Sichuan Research Center for Mental Health Education Program(XLJKJY2004B).
文摘Objective:This study aimed to explore the relationship between uncertainty in illness,state anxiety,and the life satisfaction of college students during the COVID-19 epidemic.Methods:A cluster random sampling method was employed to select a total of 1522 college students from seven universities in China.The uncertainty in illness scale,state anxiety scale,and life satisfaction scale were used.Results:Uncertainty in illness had a negative effect on life satisfaction.Uncertainty in illness had a positive effect on state anxiety.State anxiety had a negative effect on life satisfaction.State anxiety played an important mediating role in the relationship between uncertainty in illness and life satisfaction-its mediating effect accounted for 17.43%of the total effect.Conclusion:A simple mediation model revealed that uncertainty in illness exerts influence both directly on life satisfaction and indirectly via state anxiety.Based upon these elucidated examples,several countermeasures and suggestions for life satisfaction are proposed.
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Plan of Hunan Province under Grant No 2010FJ3148the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No 11374096the Doctoral Science Foundation of Hunan Normal University
文摘Based on the time-convolutionless master-equation approach, the entropic uncertainty in the presence of quantum memory is investigated for a two-atom system in two dissipative cavities. We find that the entropic uncertainty can be controlled by the non-Markovian effect and the atom-cavity coupling. The results show that increasing the atom-cavity coupling can enlarge the oscillating frequencies of the entropic uncertainty and can decrease the minimal value of the entropic uncertainty. Enhancing the non-Markovian effect can reduce the minimal value of the entropic uncertainty. In particular, if the atom-cavity coupling or the non-Markovian effect is very strong, the entropic uncertainty will be very dose to zero at certain time points, thus Bob can minimize his uncertainty about Alice＇s measurement outcomes,
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 4208810141911540470+3 种基金42075028]the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research [grant number 2020B0301030004]the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China [grant number 2018A0303130268]the Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies [grant number2020B1212060025]。
文摘Driven by the increase in CO_(2)concentration,climate models reach a consensus that the large-scale circulation of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) becomes weakened but with different magnitudes.This study investigates the major uncertainty sources of the SASM response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO_(2)(abrupt-4×CO_(2))in 18 models of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.The projected weakening of the SASM indicated by both zonal and meridional monsoon circulation indices is closely linked to decreases in the meridional gradient of upper-tropospheric temperature between Eurasia and the Indian Ocean(EUTT-IUTT).A climate feedback-response analysis method is applied to linearly decompose the uncertainty of changes in EUTT-IUTT into the partial changes due to external forcing and internal processes of the earth-atmosphere column.Results show that the uncertainty of changes in EUTT-IUTT is contributed positively by the dominant atmospheric dynamic process,followed by the cloud shortwave radiative effect,and negatively by the surface latent heat flux and cloud longwave radiative effect.Contributions from CO_(2)forcing and other internal processes including albedo and water vapor feedbacks,oceanic heat storage,and sensible heat flux are found to be minor.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and the National Research Foundation of Korea(2022S1A5A2A01038422).
文摘This study investigates tail dependence among five major cryptocurrencies,namely Bitcoin,Ethereum,Litecoin,Ripple,and Bitcoin Cash,and uncertainties in the gold,oil,and equity markets.Using the cross-quantilogram method and quantile connectedness approach,we identify cross-quantile interdependence between the analyzed variables.Our results show that the spillover between cryptocurrencies and volatility indices for the major traditional markets varies substantially across quantiles,implying that diversification benefits for these assets may differ widely across normal and extreme market conditions.Under normal market conditions,the total connectedness index is moderate and falls below the elevated values observed under bearish and bullish market conditions.Moreover,we show that under all market conditions,cryptocurrencies have a leadership influence over the volatility indices.Our results have important policy implications for enhancing financial stability and deliver valuable insights for deploying volatility-based financial instruments that can potentially provide cryptocurrency investors with suitable hedges,as we show that cryptocurrency and volatility markets are insignificantly(weakly)connected under normal(extreme)market conditions.
文摘This study investigates the predictability of a fixed uncertainty index(UI)for realized variances(volatility)in the international stock markets from a high-frequency perspective.We construct a composite UI based on the scaled principal component analysis(s-PCA)method and demonstrate that it exhibits significant in-and out-of-sample predictabilities for realized variances in global stock markets.This predictive power is more powerful than those of two commonly employed competing methods,namely,PCA and the partial least squares(PLS)methods.The result is robust in several checks.Further,we explain that s-PCA outperforms other dimension-reduction methods since it can effectively increase the impacts of strong predictors and decrease those of weak factors.The implications of this research are significant for investors who allocate assets globally.
