To improve design accuracy and reliability of structures,this study solves the uncertain natural frequencies with consideration for geometric nonlinearity and structural uncertainty.Frequencies of the laminated plate ...To improve design accuracy and reliability of structures,this study solves the uncertain natural frequencies with consideration for geometric nonlinearity and structural uncertainty.Frequencies of the laminated plate with all four edges clamped(CCCC)are derived based on Navier's method and Galerkin's method.The novelty of the current work is that the number of unknowns in the displacement field model of a CCCC plate with free midsurface(CCCC-2 plate)is only three compared with four or five in cases of other exposed methods.The present analytical method is proved to be accurate and reliable by comparing linear natural frequencies and nonlinear natural frequencies with other models available in the open literature.Furthermore,a novel method for analyzing effects of mean values and tolerance zones of uncertain structural parameters on random frequencies is proposed based on a self-developed Multiscale Feature Extraction and Fusion Network(MFEFN)system.Compared with a direct Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS),the MFEFNbased procedure significantly reduces the calculation burden with a guarantee of accuracy.Our research provides a method to calculate nonlinear natural frequencies under two boundary conditions and presentes a surrogate model to predict frequencies for accuracy analysis and optimization design.展开更多
To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method...To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.展开更多
In this paper,a generalized nth-order perturbation method based on the isogeometric boundary element method is proposed for the uncertainty analysis of broadband structural acoustic scattering problems.The Burton-Mill...In this paper,a generalized nth-order perturbation method based on the isogeometric boundary element method is proposed for the uncertainty analysis of broadband structural acoustic scattering problems.The Burton-Miller method is employed to solve the problem of non-unique solutions that may be encountered in the external acoustic field,and the nth-order discretization formulation of the boundary integral equation is derived.In addition,the computation of loop subdivision surfaces and the subdivision rules are introduced.In order to confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm,the computed results are contrasted and analyzed with the results under Monte Carlo simulations(MCs)through several numerical examples.展开更多
Inevitable geometric variations significantly affect the performance of turbines or even that of entire engines;thus,it is necessary to determine their actual characteristics and accurately estimate their impact on pe...Inevitable geometric variations significantly affect the performance of turbines or even that of entire engines;thus,it is necessary to determine their actual characteristics and accurately estimate their impact on performance.In this study,based on 1781 measured profiles of a typical turbine blade,the statistical characteristics of the geometric variations and the uncertainty impact are analyzed,and some commonly used uncertainty modelling methods based on Principal-Component Analysis(PCA)are verified.The geometric variations are found to be evident,asymmetric,and non-uniform,and the non-normality of the random distributions is non-negligible.The performance is notably affected,which is manifested as an overall offset,a notable scattering,and significant deterioration in several extreme cases.Additionally,it is demonstrated that the PCA reconstruction model is effective in characterizing major uncertainty characteristics of the geometric variations and their impact on the performance with almost the first 10 PCA modes.Based on a reasonable profile error and mean geometric deviation,the Gaussian assumption and stochasticprocess-based model are also found to be effective in predicting the mean values and standard deviations of the performance variations.However,they fail to predict the probability of some extreme cases with high loss.Finally,a Chi-square-based correction model is proposed to compensate for this deficiency.The present work can provide a useful reference for uncertainty analysis of the impact of geometric variations,and the corresponding uncertainty design of turbine blades.展开更多
To improve the vibration isolation performance of suspensions,various new structural forms of suspensions have been proposed.However,there is uncertainty in these new structure suspensions,so the deterministic researc...To improve the vibration isolation performance of suspensions,various new structural forms of suspensions have been proposed.However,there is uncertainty in these new structure suspensions,so the deterministic research cannot refect the performance of the suspension under actual operating conditions.In this paper,a quasi-zero stifness isolator is used in automotive suspensions to form a new suspension−quasi-zero stifness air suspension(QZSAS).Due to the strong nonlinearity and structural complexity of quasi-zero stifness suspensions,changes in structural parameters may cause dramatic changes in suspension performance,so it is of practical importance to study the efect of structural parameter uncertainty on the suspension performance.In order to solve this problem,three suspension structural parameters d_(0),L_(0) and Pc_(0) are selected as random variables,and the polynomial chaos expansion(PCE)theory is used to solve the suspension performance parameters.The sensitivity of the performance parameters to diferent structural parameters was discussed and analyzed in the frequency domain.Furthermore,a multi-objective optimization of the structural parameters d_(0),L_(0) and Pc_(0) of QZSAS was performed with the mean and variance of the root-mean-square(RMS)acceleration values as the optimization objectives.The optimization results show that there is an improvement of about 8%−1_(0)%in the mean value and about 4_(0)%−55%in the standard deviation of acceleration(RMS)values.This paper verifes the feasibility of the PCE method for solving the uncertainty problem of complex nonlinear systems,which provide a reference for the future structural design and optimization of such suspension systems.展开更多
The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic suppor...The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.展开更多
This article presents the application of an integrated method that estimates the dispersion of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） in air, and assesses the human health risk associated with PAHs inhalation. An u...This article presents the application of an integrated method that estimates the dispersion of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） in air, and assesses the human health risk associated with PAHs inhalation. An uncertainty analysis method consisting of three components were applied in this study, where the three components include a bootstrapping method for analyzing the whole process associated uncertainty, an inhalation rate （IR） representation for evaluating the total PAH inhalation risk for human health, and a normally distributed absorption fraction （AF） ranging from 0% to 100% to represent the absorption capability of PAHs in human body. Using this method, an integrated process was employed to assess the health risk of the residents in Beijing, China, from inhaling PAHs in the air. The results indicate that the ambient air PAHs in Beijing is an important contributor to human health impairment, although over 68% of residents seem to be safe from daily PAH carcinogenic inhalation. In general, the accumulated daily inhalation amount is relatively higher for male and children at 10 years old of age than for female and children at 6 years old. In 1997, about 1.73% cancer sufferers in Beijing were more or less related to ambient air PAHs inhalation. At 95% confidence interval, approximately 272-309 individual cancer incidences can be attributed to PAHs pollution in the air. The probability of greater than 500 cancer occurrence is 15.3%. While the inhalation of ambient air PAHs was shown to be an important factor responsible for higher cancer occurrence in Beijing, while the contribution might not be the most significant one.展开更多
Abstract In this paper, we propose an uncertainty analysis and design optimization method and its applications on a hybrid rocket motor （HRM） powered vehicle. The multidisciplinary design model of the rocket system ...Abstract In this paper, we propose an uncertainty analysis and design optimization method and its applications on a hybrid rocket motor （HRM） powered vehicle. The multidisciplinary design model of the rocket system is established and the design uncertainties are quantified. The sensitivity anal- ysis of the uncertainties shows that the uncertainty generated from the error of fuel regression rate model has the most significant effect on the system performances. Then the differences between deterministic design optimization （DDO） and uncertainty-based design optimization （UDO） are discussed. Two newly formed uncertainty analysis methods, including the Kriging-based Monte Carlo simulation （KMCS） and Kriging-based Taylor series approximation （KTSA）, are carried out using a global approximation Kriging modeling method. Based on the system design model and the results of design uncertainty analysis, the design optimization of an HRM powered vehicle for suborbital flight is implemented using three design optimization methods： DDO, KMCS and KTSA. The comparisons indicate that the two UDO methods can enhance the design reliability and robustness. The researches and methods proposed in this paper can provide a better way for the general design of HRM powered vehicles.展开更多
The crashworthiness is an important design factor of civil aircraft related with the safety of occupant during impact accident. It is a highly nonlinear transient dynamic problem and may be greatly influenced by the u...The crashworthiness is an important design factor of civil aircraft related with the safety of occupant during impact accident. It is a highly nonlinear transient dynamic problem and may be greatly influenced by the uncertainty factors. Crashworthiness uncertainty analysis is conducted to investigate the effects of initial conditions, structural dimensions and material properties. Simplified finite element model is built based on the geometrical model and basic physics phenomenon. Box-Behnken sampling and response surface methods are adopted to obtain gradient information. Results show that the proposed methods are effective for crashworthiness uncertainty analysis. Yield stress, frame thickness, impact velocity and angle have great influence on the failure behavior, and yield stress and frame thickness dominate the uncertainty of internal energy. Failure strain and tangent modulus have the smallest influence on the initial peak acceleration, and gradients of mean acceleration increase because the appearance of material plastic deformation and element failure.展开更多
Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered ...Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.展开更多
This paper presents a systematic model test program to assess the uncertainty of the ship-bank interaction forces,using the planar motion mechanism(PMM)system in a circulating water channel(CWC).Therefore,the uncertai...This paper presents a systematic model test program to assess the uncertainty of the ship-bank interaction forces,using the planar motion mechanism(PMM)system in a circulating water channel(CWC).Therefore,the uncertainties due to ship-bank distance and water depth are considered,and they are calculated via the partial differentials of the regression formulae based on the test data.The general part of the uncertainty analysis(UA)is performed according to the ITTC recommended procedure 7.5-02-06.04,while the uncertainty of speed is identified as the bias limit due to the flow velocity maldistribution in the CWC.In each example test for the UA of ship-bank interaction forces,12 repeated measurements were conducted.Results from the UA show that the contribution of water depth error and flow velocity maldistribution to the total uncertainty is noticeable,and the paper explains how they increase with the change of the test conditions.The present study will be useful in understanding the uncertainty regarding the ship-bank interaction force measurement in a CWC.展开更多
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin innorthern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting （SUFI-2） method to inve...The Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin innorthern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting （SUFI-2） method to investigate the associateduncertainty in runoff and sediment load estimation. The model was calibrated for a 10-year period （1991–2000） with aninitial 4-year warm-up period （1987–1990）, and was validated for the subsequent 10-year period （2001–2010）. Themodel evaluation indices R2 （the coefficient of determination）, NS （the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency）, and PBIAS （percentbias） for stream flows simulation indicated that there was a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows.To assess the uncertainty in the model outputs, p-factor （a 95% prediction uncertainty, 95PPU） and r-factors （averagewideness width of the 95PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed values） were taken into account.The 95PPU band bracketed 72% of the observed data during the calibration and 67% during the validation. The r-factorwas 0.81 during the calibration and 0.68 during the validation. For monthly sediment yield, the model evaluation coefficients（R2 and NS） for the calibration were computed as 0.81 and 0.79, respectively; for validation, they were 0.78and 0.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the 95PPU covered more than 60% of the observed sediment data during calibrationand validation. Moreover, improved model prediction and parameter estimation were observed with the increasednumber of iterations. However, the model performance became worse after the fourth iterations due to an unreasonableparameter estimation. Overall results indicated the applicability of the SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertaintyduring the calibration and high levels during the validation. Thus, this calibrated SWAT model can be used for assessmentof water balance components, climate change studies, and land use management practices.展开更多
The application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Olifants Basin in South Africa was the focus of our study with emphasis on calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The Basin was discretize...The application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Olifants Basin in South Africa was the focus of our study with emphasis on calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The Basin was discretized into 23 sub-basins and 226 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) using 3 arc second (90 m × 90 m) pixel resolution SRTM DEM with stream gauge B7H015 as the Basin outlet. Observed stream flow data at B7H015 were used for model calibration (1988-2001) and validation (2002-2013) using the split sample approach. Relative global sensitivity analysis using SUFI-2 algorithm was used to determine sensitive parameters to stream flow for calibration of the model. Performance efficiency of the Olifants SWAT model was assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>), Percent Bias (PBIAS) and Root Mean Square Error-Observation Standard deviation Ratio (RSR). Sensitivity analysis revealed in decreasing order of significance, runoff curve number (CN2), alpha bank factor (ALPHA_BNK), soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO), soil available water capacity (SOIL_AWC, mm H<sub>2</sub>O/mm soil), groundwater delay (GW_ DELAY, days) and groundwater “revap” coefficient (GW_REVAP) to be the most sensitive parameters to stream flow. Analysis of the model during the calibration period gave the following statistics;NSE = 0.88;R<sup>2</sup> = 0.89;PBIAS = -11.49%;RSR = 0.34. On the other hand, statistics during the validation period were NSE = 0.67;R<sup>2 </sup>= 0.79;PBIAS = -20.69%;RSR = 0.57. The observed statistics indicate the applicability of the SWAT model in simulating the hydrology of the Olifants Basin and therefore can be used as a Decision Support Tool (DST) by water managers and other relevant decisions making bodies to influence policy directions on the management of watershed processes especially water resources.展开更多
Flows experiencing laminarization and retransition are universal and crucial in many engineering applications.The objective of this study is to conduct an uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of turbule...Flows experiencing laminarization and retransition are universal and crucial in many engineering applications.The objective of this study is to conduct an uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of turbulence model closure coefficients in capturing laminarization and retransition for a rapidly contracting channel flow.Specifically,two commonly used turbulence models are considered:the Spalart-Allmaras(SA)one-equation model and the Menter Shear Stress Transport(SST)two-equation model.Thereby,a series of steady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)predictions of aero-engine intake acceleration scenarios are carried out with the purposely designed turbulence model closure coefficients.As a result,both SA and SST models fail to capture the retransition phenomenon though they achieve pretty good performance in laminarization.Using the non-intrusive polynomial chaos method,solution uncertainties in velocity,pressure,and surface friction are quantified and analyzed,which reveals that the SST model possesses much great uncertainty in the non-laminar regime,especially for the logarithmic law prediction.Besides,a sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the critical contributors to the solution uncertainty,and then the correlations between the closure coefficients and the deviations of the outputs of interest are obtained via the linear regression method.The results indicate that the diffusion-related constants are the dominant uncertainty contributors for both SA and SST models.Furthermore,the remarkably strong correlation between the critical closure coefficients and the outputs might be a good guide to recalibrate and even optimize the commonly used turbulence models.展开更多
In order to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecasting and identify the main factors that might cause great differences in prediction results, we analyzed the influence of sea le...In order to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecasting and identify the main factors that might cause great differences in prediction results, we analyzed the influence of sea level rise, tidal effect, the seasonal variance of influx, and the annual variance of the pumping rate, as well as combinations of different parameters. The results show that the most important factors that might cause great differences in seawater intrusion distance are the variance of pumping rate and combinations of different parameters. The influence of sea level rise can be neglected in a short-time simulation （ten years, for instance）. Retardation of seawater intrusion caused by tidal effects is obviously important in aquifers near the coastline, but the influence decreases with distance away from the coastline and depth away from the seabed. The intrusion distance can reach a dynamic equilibrium with the application of the sine function for seasonal effects of influx. As a conclusion, we suggest that uncertainty analysis should be considered in seawater intrusion forecasting, if possible.展开更多
On the basis of the transient water wave(TWW) theory,focused wave is generated in the circulating water channel.Numerical simulation of the focused wave is carried out by solving the Reynolds averaged NavierStokes(RAN...On the basis of the transient water wave(TWW) theory,focused wave is generated in the circulating water channel.Numerical simulation of the focused wave is carried out by solving the Reynolds averaged NavierStokes(RANS) equations.The dynamic grid technique is adopted to simulate the motion of the wave maker,and the volume of fluid(VOF) method is used to capture the free surface of the wave.The simulation results are compared with the measured data,and good agreement is obtained.For quantitative estimation of the numerical simulation error and uncertainty,the uncertainty analysis method recommended by the International Towing Tank Conference(ITTC) procedure is performed for the simulation results of the surface elevations at different positions.Both grid-convergence and time-step-size convergence studies are conducted using three types of grids and time step sizes.The simulation results are all monotonously convergent in the verification procedure,and the validations of the simulated surface elevations with the positions at 3.5,4.0 and 4.5 m are all achieved by comparing with the validation uncertainty.It is found that the numerical simulation errors caused by the grid and time-step-size in the convergence studies have the same order of magnitude.In addition,the numerical errors and uncertainties for the surface elevations at different positions are compared and discussed in detail.This paper presents the first attempt to carry out the uncertainty analysis of the simulation of focused wave,and the effectiveness of the proposed verification and validation procedures in the uncertainty analysis is demonstrated.展开更多
The usability of test results of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia is generally depends on its uncertainty. Referring to the guidelines for uncertainty analysis in examination of l...The usability of test results of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia is generally depends on its uncertainty. Referring to the guidelines for uncertainty analysis in examination of liquid dynamic recommended by International Towing Tank Conference （ ITTC）, the results were analyzed, bias limits and precision limits were calculated and total uncertainty was estimated. The total uncertainty of six tests on ship model vertical center of gravity is is 0. 16% of the mean value, and the total uncertainty of six tests on ship model transverse moment of inertia is 5.66% of the mean value. The test results show that the total uncertainty of both the multiple tests and the single test is from the precision limits of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia tests. Thus, the improved measurement system stability can enormously decrease the total uncertainty of multiple tests and the single test.展开更多
The (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental benchmark with respect to the benchmark’s 180 microscopic total cros...The (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental benchmark with respect to the benchmark’s 180 microscopic total cross sections have been computed in accompanying works [1] [2]. This work quantifies the contributions of these (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities to the PERP benchmark’s leakage response distribution moments (expected value, variance and skewness) and compares these contributions to those stemming from the corresponding first- and second-order sensitivities of the PERP benchmark’s leakage response with respect to the total cross sections. The numerical results obtained in this work reveal that the importance of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities can surpass the importance of the 1<sup>st</sup>- and 2<sup>nd</sup>-order sensitivities when the parameters’ uncertainties increase. In particular, for a uniform standard deviation of 10% of the microscopic total cross sections, the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities contribute 80% to the response variance, whereas the contribution stemming from the 1st- and 2nd-order sensitivities amount only to 2% and 18%, respectively. Consequently, neglecting the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities could cause a very large non-conservative error by under-reporting the response variance by a factor of 506%. The results obtained in this work also indicate that the effects of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities are to reduce the response’s skewness in parameter space, rendering the distribution of the leakage response more symmetric about its expected value. The results obtained in this work are the first such results ever published in reactor physics. Since correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections are not available, only the effects of typical standard deviations for these cross sections could be considered. Due to this lack of correlations among the cross sections, the effects of the <em>mixed</em> 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities could not be quantified exactly at this time. These effects could be quantified only when correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections would be obtained experimentally by the nuclear physics community.展开更多
In order to satisfy the requirement of SI-traceable on-orbit absolute radiation calibration transfer with high accuracy for satellite remote sensors,a transfer chain consisting of a fiber coupling monochromator（FBM）...In order to satisfy the requirement of SI-traceable on-orbit absolute radiation calibration transfer with high accuracy for satellite remote sensors,a transfer chain consisting of a fiber coupling monochromator（FBM） and an integrating sphere transfer radiometer（ISTR） was designed in this paper.Depending on the Sun,this chain based on detectors provides precise spectral radiometric calibration and measurement to spectrometers in the reflective solar band（RSB） covering 300–2500 nm with a spectral bandwidth of 0.5–6 nm.It shortens the traditional chain based on lamp source and reduces the calibration uncertainty from 5% to 0.5% by using the cryogenic radiometer in space as a radiometric benchmark and trap detectors as secondary standard.This paper also gives a detailed uncertainty budget with reasonable distribution of each impact factor,including the weak spectral signal measurement with uncertainty of 0.28%.According to the peculiar design and comprehensive uncertainty analysis,it illustrates that the spectral radiance measurement uncertainty of the ISTR system can reach to 0.48%.The result satisfies the requirements of SI-traceable on-orbit calibration and has wider significance for expanding the application of the remote sensing data with high-quality.展开更多
The Karhunen-Loeve （KL） expansion and probabilistic collocation method （PCM） are combined and applied to an uncertainty analysis of rock failure behavior by integrating a self- developed numerical method （i.e., t...The Karhunen-Loeve （KL） expansion and probabilistic collocation method （PCM） are combined and applied to an uncertainty analysis of rock failure behavior by integrating a self- developed numerical method （i.e., the elastic-plastic cellular automaton （EPCA））. The results from the method developed are compared using the Monte Carlo Simulation （MCS） method. It is concluded that the method developed requires fewer collocations than MCS method to obtain very high accuracy and greatly reduces the computational cost. Based on the method, the elasto- plastic and elasto-brittle-plastic analyses of rocks under mechanical loadings are conducted to study the uncertainty in heterogeneous rock failure behaviour.展开更多
基金the research project funded by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.HIT.OCEP.2024038)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52372351)the State Key Laboratory of Micro-Spacecraft Rapid Design and Intelligent Cluster,China(No.MS02240107)。
文摘To improve design accuracy and reliability of structures,this study solves the uncertain natural frequencies with consideration for geometric nonlinearity and structural uncertainty.Frequencies of the laminated plate with all four edges clamped(CCCC)are derived based on Navier's method and Galerkin's method.The novelty of the current work is that the number of unknowns in the displacement field model of a CCCC plate with free midsurface(CCCC-2 plate)is only three compared with four or five in cases of other exposed methods.The present analytical method is proved to be accurate and reliable by comparing linear natural frequencies and nonlinear natural frequencies with other models available in the open literature.Furthermore,a novel method for analyzing effects of mean values and tolerance zones of uncertain structural parameters on random frequencies is proposed based on a self-developed Multiscale Feature Extraction and Fusion Network(MFEFN)system.Compared with a direct Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS),the MFEFNbased procedure significantly reduces the calculation burden with a guarantee of accuracy.Our research provides a method to calculate nonlinear natural frequencies under two boundary conditions and presentes a surrogate model to predict frequencies for accuracy analysis and optimization design.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 52175099)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2020M671494)+1 种基金the Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds(Grant No.2020Z179)the Nanjing University of Science and Technology Independent Research Program(Grant No.30920021105)。
文摘To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.
基金sponsored by the Graduate Student Research and Innovation Fund of Xinyang Normal University under No.2024KYJJ012.
文摘In this paper,a generalized nth-order perturbation method based on the isogeometric boundary element method is proposed for the uncertainty analysis of broadband structural acoustic scattering problems.The Burton-Miller method is employed to solve the problem of non-unique solutions that may be encountered in the external acoustic field,and the nth-order discretization formulation of the boundary integral equation is derived.In addition,the computation of loop subdivision surfaces and the subdivision rules are introduced.In order to confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm,the computed results are contrasted and analyzed with the results under Monte Carlo simulations(MCs)through several numerical examples.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project, China (No. J2019-II-0012-0032)
文摘Inevitable geometric variations significantly affect the performance of turbines or even that of entire engines;thus,it is necessary to determine their actual characteristics and accurately estimate their impact on performance.In this study,based on 1781 measured profiles of a typical turbine blade,the statistical characteristics of the geometric variations and the uncertainty impact are analyzed,and some commonly used uncertainty modelling methods based on Principal-Component Analysis(PCA)are verified.The geometric variations are found to be evident,asymmetric,and non-uniform,and the non-normality of the random distributions is non-negligible.The performance is notably affected,which is manifested as an overall offset,a notable scattering,and significant deterioration in several extreme cases.Additionally,it is demonstrated that the PCA reconstruction model is effective in characterizing major uncertainty characteristics of the geometric variations and their impact on the performance with almost the first 10 PCA modes.Based on a reasonable profile error and mean geometric deviation,the Gaussian assumption and stochasticprocess-based model are also found to be effective in predicting the mean values and standard deviations of the performance variations.However,they fail to predict the probability of some extreme cases with high loss.Finally,a Chi-square-based correction model is proposed to compensate for this deficiency.The present work can provide a useful reference for uncertainty analysis of the impact of geometric variations,and the corresponding uncertainty design of turbine blades.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51875256)Open Platform Fund of Hunan Institute of Technology of China(Grant No.KFA20009)Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan Science and Technology Cooperation Project in Jiangsu Province of China(Grant No.BZ2020050)。
文摘To improve the vibration isolation performance of suspensions,various new structural forms of suspensions have been proposed.However,there is uncertainty in these new structure suspensions,so the deterministic research cannot refect the performance of the suspension under actual operating conditions.In this paper,a quasi-zero stifness isolator is used in automotive suspensions to form a new suspension−quasi-zero stifness air suspension(QZSAS).Due to the strong nonlinearity and structural complexity of quasi-zero stifness suspensions,changes in structural parameters may cause dramatic changes in suspension performance,so it is of practical importance to study the efect of structural parameter uncertainty on the suspension performance.In order to solve this problem,three suspension structural parameters d_(0),L_(0) and Pc_(0) are selected as random variables,and the polynomial chaos expansion(PCE)theory is used to solve the suspension performance parameters.The sensitivity of the performance parameters to diferent structural parameters was discussed and analyzed in the frequency domain.Furthermore,a multi-objective optimization of the structural parameters d_(0),L_(0) and Pc_(0) of QZSAS was performed with the mean and variance of the root-mean-square(RMS)acceleration values as the optimization objectives.The optimization results show that there is an improvement of about 8%−1_(0)%in the mean value and about 4_(0)%−55%in the standard deviation of acceleration(RMS)values.This paper verifes the feasibility of the PCE method for solving the uncertainty problem of complex nonlinear systems,which provide a reference for the future structural design and optimization of such suspension systems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71171008)
文摘The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.
文摘This article presents the application of an integrated method that estimates the dispersion of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） in air, and assesses the human health risk associated with PAHs inhalation. An uncertainty analysis method consisting of three components were applied in this study, where the three components include a bootstrapping method for analyzing the whole process associated uncertainty, an inhalation rate （IR） representation for evaluating the total PAH inhalation risk for human health, and a normally distributed absorption fraction （AF） ranging from 0% to 100% to represent the absorption capability of PAHs in human body. Using this method, an integrated process was employed to assess the health risk of the residents in Beijing, China, from inhaling PAHs in the air. The results indicate that the ambient air PAHs in Beijing is an important contributor to human health impairment, although over 68% of residents seem to be safe from daily PAH carcinogenic inhalation. In general, the accumulated daily inhalation amount is relatively higher for male and children at 10 years old of age than for female and children at 6 years old. In 1997, about 1.73% cancer sufferers in Beijing were more or less related to ambient air PAHs inhalation. At 95% confidence interval, approximately 272-309 individual cancer incidences can be attributed to PAHs pollution in the air. The probability of greater than 500 cancer occurrence is 15.3%. While the inhalation of ambient air PAHs was shown to be an important factor responsible for higher cancer occurrence in Beijing, while the contribution might not be the most significant one.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51305014)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2013M540842)
文摘Abstract In this paper, we propose an uncertainty analysis and design optimization method and its applications on a hybrid rocket motor （HRM） powered vehicle. The multidisciplinary design model of the rocket system is established and the design uncertainties are quantified. The sensitivity anal- ysis of the uncertainties shows that the uncertainty generated from the error of fuel regression rate model has the most significant effect on the system performances. Then the differences between deterministic design optimization （DDO） and uncertainty-based design optimization （UDO） are discussed. Two newly formed uncertainty analysis methods, including the Kriging-based Monte Carlo simulation （KMCS） and Kriging-based Taylor series approximation （KTSA）, are carried out using a global approximation Kriging modeling method. Based on the system design model and the results of design uncertainty analysis, the design optimization of an HRM powered vehicle for suborbital flight is implemented using three design optimization methods： DDO, KMCS and KTSA. The comparisons indicate that the two UDO methods can enhance the design reliability and robustness. The researches and methods proposed in this paper can provide a better way for the general design of HRM powered vehicles.
基金supported by the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China (Nos. 2012M510306, 2013T60054)
文摘The crashworthiness is an important design factor of civil aircraft related with the safety of occupant during impact accident. It is a highly nonlinear transient dynamic problem and may be greatly influenced by the uncertainty factors. Crashworthiness uncertainty analysis is conducted to investigate the effects of initial conditions, structural dimensions and material properties. Simplified finite element model is built based on the geometrical model and basic physics phenomenon. Box-Behnken sampling and response surface methods are adopted to obtain gradient information. Results show that the proposed methods are effective for crashworthiness uncertainty analysis. Yield stress, frame thickness, impact velocity and angle have great influence on the failure behavior, and yield stress and frame thickness dominate the uncertainty of internal energy. Failure strain and tangent modulus have the smallest influence on the initial peak acceleration, and gradients of mean acceleration increase because the appearance of material plastic deformation and element failure.
基金funded by the Marine Public Welfare Pro-ject of China (Nos. 200705029, 200805080)the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2002CB412406)SOA-funded Program (No. 908-02-04-03)
文摘Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.
基金This study is financially supported by the China Ministry of Education Key Research Project“KSHIP-II Project”(Grant No.GKZY010004).
文摘This paper presents a systematic model test program to assess the uncertainty of the ship-bank interaction forces,using the planar motion mechanism(PMM)system in a circulating water channel(CWC).Therefore,the uncertainties due to ship-bank distance and water depth are considered,and they are calculated via the partial differentials of the regression formulae based on the test data.The general part of the uncertainty analysis(UA)is performed according to the ITTC recommended procedure 7.5-02-06.04,while the uncertainty of speed is identified as the bias limit due to the flow velocity maldistribution in the CWC.In each example test for the UA of ship-bank interaction forces,12 repeated measurements were conducted.Results from the UA show that the contribution of water depth error and flow velocity maldistribution to the total uncertainty is noticeable,and the paper explains how they increase with the change of the test conditions.The present study will be useful in understanding the uncertainty regarding the ship-bank interaction force measurement in a CWC.
基金supported by the Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Lahore, and local authorities in Pakistan
文摘The Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT） was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin innorthern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting （SUFI-2） method to investigate the associateduncertainty in runoff and sediment load estimation. The model was calibrated for a 10-year period （1991–2000） with aninitial 4-year warm-up period （1987–1990）, and was validated for the subsequent 10-year period （2001–2010）. Themodel evaluation indices R2 （the coefficient of determination）, NS （the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency）, and PBIAS （percentbias） for stream flows simulation indicated that there was a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows.To assess the uncertainty in the model outputs, p-factor （a 95% prediction uncertainty, 95PPU） and r-factors （averagewideness width of the 95PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed values） were taken into account.The 95PPU band bracketed 72% of the observed data during the calibration and 67% during the validation. The r-factorwas 0.81 during the calibration and 0.68 during the validation. For monthly sediment yield, the model evaluation coefficients（R2 and NS） for the calibration were computed as 0.81 and 0.79, respectively; for validation, they were 0.78and 0.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the 95PPU covered more than 60% of the observed sediment data during calibrationand validation. Moreover, improved model prediction and parameter estimation were observed with the increasednumber of iterations. However, the model performance became worse after the fourth iterations due to an unreasonableparameter estimation. Overall results indicated the applicability of the SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertaintyduring the calibration and high levels during the validation. Thus, this calibrated SWAT model can be used for assessmentof water balance components, climate change studies, and land use management practices.
文摘The application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Olifants Basin in South Africa was the focus of our study with emphasis on calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The Basin was discretized into 23 sub-basins and 226 Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) using 3 arc second (90 m × 90 m) pixel resolution SRTM DEM with stream gauge B7H015 as the Basin outlet. Observed stream flow data at B7H015 were used for model calibration (1988-2001) and validation (2002-2013) using the split sample approach. Relative global sensitivity analysis using SUFI-2 algorithm was used to determine sensitive parameters to stream flow for calibration of the model. Performance efficiency of the Olifants SWAT model was assessed using Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE), coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>), Percent Bias (PBIAS) and Root Mean Square Error-Observation Standard deviation Ratio (RSR). Sensitivity analysis revealed in decreasing order of significance, runoff curve number (CN2), alpha bank factor (ALPHA_BNK), soil evaporation compensation factor (ESCO), soil available water capacity (SOIL_AWC, mm H<sub>2</sub>O/mm soil), groundwater delay (GW_ DELAY, days) and groundwater “revap” coefficient (GW_REVAP) to be the most sensitive parameters to stream flow. Analysis of the model during the calibration period gave the following statistics;NSE = 0.88;R<sup>2</sup> = 0.89;PBIAS = -11.49%;RSR = 0.34. On the other hand, statistics during the validation period were NSE = 0.67;R<sup>2 </sup>= 0.79;PBIAS = -20.69%;RSR = 0.57. The observed statistics indicate the applicability of the SWAT model in simulating the hydrology of the Olifants Basin and therefore can be used as a Decision Support Tool (DST) by water managers and other relevant decisions making bodies to influence policy directions on the management of watershed processes especially water resources.
基金co-supported by the Youth Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11902367)the Youth Program of Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China (Nos. S2021JJQNJJ2519 and S2021JJQNJJ2716)the Science and Technology Research and Development plan of China National Railway Group, China (Nos. P2020J025 and P2021J036)
文摘Flows experiencing laminarization and retransition are universal and crucial in many engineering applications.The objective of this study is to conduct an uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of turbulence model closure coefficients in capturing laminarization and retransition for a rapidly contracting channel flow.Specifically,two commonly used turbulence models are considered:the Spalart-Allmaras(SA)one-equation model and the Menter Shear Stress Transport(SST)two-equation model.Thereby,a series of steady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)predictions of aero-engine intake acceleration scenarios are carried out with the purposely designed turbulence model closure coefficients.As a result,both SA and SST models fail to capture the retransition phenomenon though they achieve pretty good performance in laminarization.Using the non-intrusive polynomial chaos method,solution uncertainties in velocity,pressure,and surface friction are quantified and analyzed,which reveals that the SST model possesses much great uncertainty in the non-laminar regime,especially for the logarithmic law prediction.Besides,a sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the critical contributors to the solution uncertainty,and then the correlations between the closure coefficients and the deviations of the outputs of interest are obtained via the linear regression method.The results indicate that the diffusion-related constants are the dominant uncertainty contributors for both SA and SST models.Furthermore,the remarkably strong correlation between the critical closure coefficients and the outputs might be a good guide to recalibrate and even optimize the commonly used turbulence models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51309091)the Environmental Protection Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.2010080)
文摘In order to describe the importance of uncertainty analysis in seawater intrusion forecasting and identify the main factors that might cause great differences in prediction results, we analyzed the influence of sea level rise, tidal effect, the seasonal variance of influx, and the annual variance of the pumping rate, as well as combinations of different parameters. The results show that the most important factors that might cause great differences in seawater intrusion distance are the variance of pumping rate and combinations of different parameters. The influence of sea level rise can be neglected in a short-time simulation （ten years, for instance）. Retardation of seawater intrusion caused by tidal effects is obviously important in aquifers near the coastline, but the influence decreases with distance away from the coastline and depth away from the seabed. The intrusion distance can reach a dynamic equilibrium with the application of the sine function for seasonal effects of influx. As a conclusion, we suggest that uncertainty analysis should be considered in seawater intrusion forecasting, if possible.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51379124)the Knowledge-Based Ship-Design Hyper-Integrated Platform(KSHIP) 2nd Term(No.GKZY010004)
文摘On the basis of the transient water wave(TWW) theory,focused wave is generated in the circulating water channel.Numerical simulation of the focused wave is carried out by solving the Reynolds averaged NavierStokes(RANS) equations.The dynamic grid technique is adopted to simulate the motion of the wave maker,and the volume of fluid(VOF) method is used to capture the free surface of the wave.The simulation results are compared with the measured data,and good agreement is obtained.For quantitative estimation of the numerical simulation error and uncertainty,the uncertainty analysis method recommended by the International Towing Tank Conference(ITTC) procedure is performed for the simulation results of the surface elevations at different positions.Both grid-convergence and time-step-size convergence studies are conducted using three types of grids and time step sizes.The simulation results are all monotonously convergent in the verification procedure,and the validations of the simulated surface elevations with the positions at 3.5,4.0 and 4.5 m are all achieved by comparing with the validation uncertainty.It is found that the numerical simulation errors caused by the grid and time-step-size in the convergence studies have the same order of magnitude.In addition,the numerical errors and uncertainties for the surface elevations at different positions are compared and discussed in detail.This paper presents the first attempt to carry out the uncertainty analysis of the simulation of focused wave,and the effectiveness of the proposed verification and validation procedures in the uncertainty analysis is demonstrated.
文摘The usability of test results of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia is generally depends on its uncertainty. Referring to the guidelines for uncertainty analysis in examination of liquid dynamic recommended by International Towing Tank Conference （ ITTC）, the results were analyzed, bias limits and precision limits were calculated and total uncertainty was estimated. The total uncertainty of six tests on ship model vertical center of gravity is is 0. 16% of the mean value, and the total uncertainty of six tests on ship model transverse moment of inertia is 5.66% of the mean value. The test results show that the total uncertainty of both the multiple tests and the single test is from the precision limits of ship model vertical center of gravity and transverse moment of inertia tests. Thus, the improved measurement system stability can enormously decrease the total uncertainty of multiple tests and the single test.
文摘The (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental benchmark with respect to the benchmark’s 180 microscopic total cross sections have been computed in accompanying works [1] [2]. This work quantifies the contributions of these (180)<sup>3</sup> third-order mixed sensitivities to the PERP benchmark’s leakage response distribution moments (expected value, variance and skewness) and compares these contributions to those stemming from the corresponding first- and second-order sensitivities of the PERP benchmark’s leakage response with respect to the total cross sections. The numerical results obtained in this work reveal that the importance of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities can surpass the importance of the 1<sup>st</sup>- and 2<sup>nd</sup>-order sensitivities when the parameters’ uncertainties increase. In particular, for a uniform standard deviation of 10% of the microscopic total cross sections, the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities contribute 80% to the response variance, whereas the contribution stemming from the 1st- and 2nd-order sensitivities amount only to 2% and 18%, respectively. Consequently, neglecting the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities could cause a very large non-conservative error by under-reporting the response variance by a factor of 506%. The results obtained in this work also indicate that the effects of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities are to reduce the response’s skewness in parameter space, rendering the distribution of the leakage response more symmetric about its expected value. The results obtained in this work are the first such results ever published in reactor physics. Since correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections are not available, only the effects of typical standard deviations for these cross sections could be considered. Due to this lack of correlations among the cross sections, the effects of the <em>mixed</em> 3<sup>rd</sup>-order sensitivities could not be quantified exactly at this time. These effects could be quantified only when correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections would be obtained experimentally by the nuclear physics community.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41474161)the National High-Technology Program of China(Grant No.2015AA123703)
文摘In order to satisfy the requirement of SI-traceable on-orbit absolute radiation calibration transfer with high accuracy for satellite remote sensors,a transfer chain consisting of a fiber coupling monochromator（FBM） and an integrating sphere transfer radiometer（ISTR） was designed in this paper.Depending on the Sun,this chain based on detectors provides precise spectral radiometric calibration and measurement to spectrometers in the reflective solar band（RSB） covering 300–2500 nm with a spectral bandwidth of 0.5–6 nm.It shortens the traditional chain based on lamp source and reduces the calibration uncertainty from 5% to 0.5% by using the cryogenic radiometer in space as a radiometric benchmark and trap detectors as secondary standard.This paper also gives a detailed uncertainty budget with reasonable distribution of each impact factor,including the weak spectral signal measurement with uncertainty of 0.28%.According to the peculiar design and comprehensive uncertainty analysis,it illustrates that the spectral radiance measurement uncertainty of the ISTR system can reach to 0.48%.The result satisfies the requirements of SI-traceable on-orbit calibration and has wider significance for expanding the application of the remote sensing data with high-quality.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51322906 and 41272349)the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2013CB036405)Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS(No.2011240)
文摘The Karhunen-Loeve （KL） expansion and probabilistic collocation method （PCM） are combined and applied to an uncertainty analysis of rock failure behavior by integrating a self- developed numerical method （i.e., the elastic-plastic cellular automaton （EPCA））. The results from the method developed are compared using the Monte Carlo Simulation （MCS） method. It is concluded that the method developed requires fewer collocations than MCS method to obtain very high accuracy and greatly reduces the computational cost. Based on the method, the elasto- plastic and elasto-brittle-plastic analyses of rocks under mechanical loadings are conducted to study the uncertainty in heterogeneous rock failure behaviour.
