Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting,where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradi...Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting,where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power production.Ensemble simulations from such weather models aim to quantify uncertainty in the future development of the weather,and can be used to propagate this uncertainty through the model chain to generate probabilistic solar energy predictions.However,ensemble prediction systems are known to exhibit systematic errors,and thus require post-processing to obtain accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts.The overarching aim of our study is to systematically evaluate different strategies to apply post-processing in model chain approaches with a specific focus on solar energy:not applying any post-processing at all;post-processing only the irradiance predictions before the conversion;post-processing only the solar power predictions obtained from the model chain;or applying post-processing in both steps.In a case study based on a benchmark dataset for the Jacumba solar plant in the U.S.,we develop statistical and machine learning methods for postprocessing ensemble predictions of global horizontal irradiance(GHI)and solar power generation.Further,we propose a neural-network-based model for direct solar power forecasting that bypasses the model chain.Our results indicate that postprocessing substantially improves the solar power generation forecasts,in particular when post-processing is applied to the power predictions.The machine learning methods for post-processing slightly outperform the statistical methods,and the direct forecasting approach performs comparably to the post-processing strategies.展开更多
Laser additive manufacturing(LAM)of titanium(Ti)alloys has emerged as a transformative technology with vast potential across multiple industries.To recap the state of the art,Ti alloys processed by two essential LAM t...Laser additive manufacturing(LAM)of titanium(Ti)alloys has emerged as a transformative technology with vast potential across multiple industries.To recap the state of the art,Ti alloys processed by two essential LAM techniques(i.e.,laser powder bed fusion and laser-directed energy deposition)will be reviewed,covering the aspects of processes,materials and post-processing.The impacts of process parameters and strategies for optimizing parameters will be elucidated.Various types of Ti alloys processed by LAM,includingα-Ti,(α+β)-Ti,andβ-Ti alloys,will be overviewed in terms of micro structures and benchmarking properties.Furthermore,the post-processing methods for improving the performance of L AM-processed Ti alloys,including conventional and novel heat treatment,hot isostatic pressing,and surface processing(e.g.,ultrasonic and laser shot peening),will be systematically reviewed and discussed.The review summarizes the process windows,properties,and performance envelopes and benchmarks the research achievements in LAM of Ti alloys.The outlooks of further trends in LAM of Ti alloys are also highlighted at the end of the review.This comprehensive review could serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners,promoting further advancements in LAM-built Ti alloys and their applications.展开更多
基金the Young Investigator Group“Artificial Intelligence for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting”funded by the Vector Stiftungfunding from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research(BMBF)and the Baden-Württemberg Ministry of Science as part of the Excellence Strategy of the German Federal and State Governments。
文摘Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting,where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power production.Ensemble simulations from such weather models aim to quantify uncertainty in the future development of the weather,and can be used to propagate this uncertainty through the model chain to generate probabilistic solar energy predictions.However,ensemble prediction systems are known to exhibit systematic errors,and thus require post-processing to obtain accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts.The overarching aim of our study is to systematically evaluate different strategies to apply post-processing in model chain approaches with a specific focus on solar energy:not applying any post-processing at all;post-processing only the irradiance predictions before the conversion;post-processing only the solar power predictions obtained from the model chain;or applying post-processing in both steps.In a case study based on a benchmark dataset for the Jacumba solar plant in the U.S.,we develop statistical and machine learning methods for postprocessing ensemble predictions of global horizontal irradiance(GHI)and solar power generation.Further,we propose a neural-network-based model for direct solar power forecasting that bypasses the model chain.Our results indicate that postprocessing substantially improves the solar power generation forecasts,in particular when post-processing is applied to the power predictions.The machine learning methods for post-processing slightly outperform the statistical methods,and the direct forecasting approach performs comparably to the post-processing strategies.
基金financially supported by the 2022 MTC Young Individual Research Grants under Singapore Research,Innovation and Enterprise(RIE)2025 Plan(No.M22K3c0097)the Natural Science Foundation of US(No.DMR-2104933)the sponsorship of the China Scholarship Council(No.202106130051)。
文摘Laser additive manufacturing(LAM)of titanium(Ti)alloys has emerged as a transformative technology with vast potential across multiple industries.To recap the state of the art,Ti alloys processed by two essential LAM techniques(i.e.,laser powder bed fusion and laser-directed energy deposition)will be reviewed,covering the aspects of processes,materials and post-processing.The impacts of process parameters and strategies for optimizing parameters will be elucidated.Various types of Ti alloys processed by LAM,includingα-Ti,(α+β)-Ti,andβ-Ti alloys,will be overviewed in terms of micro structures and benchmarking properties.Furthermore,the post-processing methods for improving the performance of L AM-processed Ti alloys,including conventional and novel heat treatment,hot isostatic pressing,and surface processing(e.g.,ultrasonic and laser shot peening),will be systematically reviewed and discussed.The review summarizes the process windows,properties,and performance envelopes and benchmarks the research achievements in LAM of Ti alloys.The outlooks of further trends in LAM of Ti alloys are also highlighted at the end of the review.This comprehensive review could serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners,promoting further advancements in LAM-built Ti alloys and their applications.
