Axisymmetric bogus vortexes at sea level are usually used in the traditional bogus data assimilation （BDA） scheme. In the traditional scheme, the vortex could not accurately describe the specific characteristics of ...Axisymmetric bogus vortexes at sea level are usually used in the traditional bogus data assimilation （BDA） scheme. In the traditional scheme, the vortex could not accurately describe the specific characteristics of a typhoon, and the evolving real typhoon is forced to unreasonably adapt to this changeless vortex. For this reason, an asymmetrical typhoon bogus method with information blended from the analysis and the observation is put forward in this paper, in which the impact of the Subtropical High is also taken into consideration. With the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model （MM5） and its adjoint model, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation （4D-Var） technique is employed to build a dynamic asymmetrical BDA scheme to assimilate different asymmetrical bogus vortexes at different time. The track and intensity of six surmner typhoons much influenced by the Subtropical High are simulated and the results are compared. It is shown that the improvement in track simulation in the new scheme is more significant than that in the traditional scheme. Moreover, the periods for which the track cannot be simulated well by the traditional scheme can be improved with the new scheme. The results also reveal that although the simulated typhoon intensity in the new scheme is generally weaker than that in the traditional scheme, this trend enables the new scheme to simulate, in the later period, closer-to-observation intensity than the traditional scheme. However, despite the fact that the observed intensity has been largely weakened, the simulated intensity at later periods of the BDA schemes is still very intensive, resulting in overly development of the typhoon during the simulation. The limitation to the simulation effect of the BDA scheme due to this condition needs to be further studied.展开更多
Initialization of tropical cyclones plays an important role in typhoon numerical prediction. This study applied a typhoon initialization scheme based on the incremental analysis updates (IAU) technique in a rapid refr...Initialization of tropical cyclones plays an important role in typhoon numerical prediction. This study applied a typhoon initialization scheme based on the incremental analysis updates (IAU) technique in a rapid refresh system to improve the prediction of Typhoon Lekima (2019). Two numerical sensitivity experiments with or without application of the IAU technique after performing vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures were conducted for comparison with the control experiment, which did not involve a typhoon initialization scheme. Analysis of the initial fields indicated that the relocation procedure shifted the typhoon circulation to the observed typhoon region, and the wind speeds became closer to the observations following the wind adjustment procedure. Comparison of the results of the sensitivity and control experiments revealed that the vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures could improve the prediction of typhoon track and intensity in the first 6-h period, and that these improvements were extended throughout the first 12-h period of the prediction by the IAU technique. The new typhoon initialization scheme also improved the simulated typhoon structure in terms of not only the wind speed and warm core prediction but also the organization of the eye of Typhoon Lekima. Diagnosis of the tendencies of variables showed that use of the IAU technique in a typhoon initialization scheme is efficacious in resolving the spurious high-frequency noise problem such that the model is able to reach equilibrium as soon as possible.展开更多
Traditional variational data assimilation （VDA） with only one regularization parameter constraint cannot produce optimal error tuning for all observations. In this paper, a new data assimilation method of ＂four dim...Traditional variational data assimilation （VDA） with only one regularization parameter constraint cannot produce optimal error tuning for all observations. In this paper, a new data assimilation method of ＂four dimensional variational data assimilation （4D-Var） with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint （Tikh-4D-Var）＂ is proposed by imposing different reg- ularization parameters for different observations. Meanwhile, a new multiple regularization parameters selection method, which is suitable for actual high-dimensional data assimilation system, is proposed based on the posterior information of 4D-Var system. Compared with the traditional single regularization parameter selection method, computation of the proposed multiple regularization parameters selection method is smaller. Based on WRF3.3.1 4D-Vat data assimilation system, initiali- zation and simulation of typhoon Chaba （2010） with the new Tikh-4D-Var method are compared with its counterpart 4D-Var to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method. Results show that the new Tikh-4D-Var method can accelerate the con vergence with less iterations. Moreover, compared with 4D-Var method, the typhoon track, intensity （including center surface pressure and maximum wind speed） and structure prediction are obviously improved with Tikh-4D-Var method for 72-h pre- diction. In addition, the accuracy of the observation error variances can be reflected by the multiple regularization parameters.展开更多
The relation between the basic currents of the low latitudes and the initiation of typhoons is investigated statistic-ally and synoptically by means of recent aerological data.It is shown that about 80%of typhoons dev...The relation between the basic currents of the low latitudes and the initiation of typhoons is investigated statistic-ally and synoptically by means of recent aerological data.It is shown that about 80%of typhoons developed in the eastern part of the equatorial convergence zone between the equatorial westerlies and trade wind of West Pacific Ocean.The equatorial westerly is a large scale and quasi-steady phenomenon;therefore,it is probably reasonable to be called"basic current"and typhoons are considered as vortices of smaller scale.There is a quite definite relation-ship between the time,position,frequency of the initiation of typhoons and the position,strength of the basic cur-rents in the low latitudes.There is a quasi-periodical variation of the strength and position of the basic currents with a period longer than one month.This fact may be helpful for the extended forecast the initiation and development of ty-phoons.展开更多
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (10871099 40805046+2 种基金 40830958)Specialized Projects of Public Welfare Industry (Meteorological Sector) (GYH(QX)2007-6-15)973 Program of National Key Foundamental Research and Development (2009CB421502)
文摘Axisymmetric bogus vortexes at sea level are usually used in the traditional bogus data assimilation （BDA） scheme. In the traditional scheme, the vortex could not accurately describe the specific characteristics of a typhoon, and the evolving real typhoon is forced to unreasonably adapt to this changeless vortex. For this reason, an asymmetrical typhoon bogus method with information blended from the analysis and the observation is put forward in this paper, in which the impact of the Subtropical High is also taken into consideration. With the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model （MM5） and its adjoint model, a four-dimensional variational data assimilation （4D-Var） technique is employed to build a dynamic asymmetrical BDA scheme to assimilate different asymmetrical bogus vortexes at different time. The track and intensity of six surmner typhoons much influenced by the Subtropical High are simulated and the results are compared. It is shown that the improvement in track simulation in the new scheme is more significant than that in the traditional scheme. Moreover, the periods for which the track cannot be simulated well by the traditional scheme can be improved with the new scheme. The results also reveal that although the simulated typhoon intensity in the new scheme is generally weaker than that in the traditional scheme, this trend enables the new scheme to simulate, in the later period, closer-to-observation intensity than the traditional scheme. However, despite the fact that the observed intensity has been largely weakened, the simulated intensity at later periods of the BDA schemes is still very intensive, resulting in overly development of the typhoon during the simulation. The limitation to the simulation effect of the BDA scheme due to this condition needs to be further studied.
基金Science and Technology Project of Zhejiang Province(LGF20D050001)East China Regional Meteorological Science and Technology Innovation Fund Cooperation Project(QYHZ201805)Meteorological Science and Technology Project of Zhejiang Meteorological Service(2018ZD01,2019ZD11)。
文摘Initialization of tropical cyclones plays an important role in typhoon numerical prediction. This study applied a typhoon initialization scheme based on the incremental analysis updates (IAU) technique in a rapid refresh system to improve the prediction of Typhoon Lekima (2019). Two numerical sensitivity experiments with or without application of the IAU technique after performing vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures were conducted for comparison with the control experiment, which did not involve a typhoon initialization scheme. Analysis of the initial fields indicated that the relocation procedure shifted the typhoon circulation to the observed typhoon region, and the wind speeds became closer to the observations following the wind adjustment procedure. Comparison of the results of the sensitivity and control experiments revealed that the vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures could improve the prediction of typhoon track and intensity in the first 6-h period, and that these improvements were extended throughout the first 12-h period of the prediction by the IAU technique. The new typhoon initialization scheme also improved the simulated typhoon structure in terms of not only the wind speed and warm core prediction but also the organization of the eye of Typhoon Lekima. Diagnosis of the tendencies of variables showed that use of the IAU technique in a typhoon initialization scheme is efficacious in resolving the spurious high-frequency noise problem such that the model is able to reach equilibrium as soon as possible.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants Nos.41230421,41005029,41105012,41375106 and 41105065)National Public Benefit(Meteorology)Research Foundation of China(Grant No.GYHY 201106004)
文摘Traditional variational data assimilation （VDA） with only one regularization parameter constraint cannot produce optimal error tuning for all observations. In this paper, a new data assimilation method of ＂four dimensional variational data assimilation （4D-Var） with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint （Tikh-4D-Var）＂ is proposed by imposing different reg- ularization parameters for different observations. Meanwhile, a new multiple regularization parameters selection method, which is suitable for actual high-dimensional data assimilation system, is proposed based on the posterior information of 4D-Var system. Compared with the traditional single regularization parameter selection method, computation of the proposed multiple regularization parameters selection method is smaller. Based on WRF3.3.1 4D-Vat data assimilation system, initiali- zation and simulation of typhoon Chaba （2010） with the new Tikh-4D-Var method are compared with its counterpart 4D-Var to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method. Results show that the new Tikh-4D-Var method can accelerate the con vergence with less iterations. Moreover, compared with 4D-Var method, the typhoon track, intensity （including center surface pressure and maximum wind speed） and structure prediction are obviously improved with Tikh-4D-Var method for 72-h pre- diction. In addition, the accuracy of the observation error variances can be reflected by the multiple regularization parameters.
文摘The relation between the basic currents of the low latitudes and the initiation of typhoons is investigated statistic-ally and synoptically by means of recent aerological data.It is shown that about 80%of typhoons developed in the eastern part of the equatorial convergence zone between the equatorial westerlies and trade wind of West Pacific Ocean.The equatorial westerly is a large scale and quasi-steady phenomenon;therefore,it is probably reasonable to be called"basic current"and typhoons are considered as vortices of smaller scale.There is a quite definite relation-ship between the time,position,frequency of the initiation of typhoons and the position,strength of the basic cur-rents in the low latitudes.There is a quasi-periodical variation of the strength and position of the basic currents with a period longer than one month.This fact may be helpful for the extended forecast the initiation and development of ty-phoons.
