Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies.In this study,ET_(0) was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model,and the spat...Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies.In this study,ET_(0) was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model,and the spatiotemporal variations in ET_(0) over China from 1960 to 2019 were analyzed.We then quantified the contributions of five driving factors(air temperature,wind speed,relative humidity,sunshine hours,and CO_(2) concentration)to the ET_(0) trends via a detrending experiment.The results revealed that nationwide ET_(0) showed no significant(p>0.05)decreasing trend from 1960 to 2019,with a trend of−8.56×10^(−2)mm a^(−2).The average temperature and wind speed were identified as the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends at the national scale.The contributions of the driving factors to the ET_(0) trends were ranked in the following order:average temperature(21.3%)>wind speed(−15.63%)>sunshine hours(−11.99%)>CO_(2) concentration(6.36%)>relative humidity(3.58%).Spatially,the dominant factors influencing the ET_(0) trends varied widely.In the southeastern region,average temperature and sunshine hours dominated the trends of ET_(0),whereas wind speed and average temperature were the dominant factors in the northwestern region.The findings provide valuable insights into the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends in China and highlight the importance of considering different driving factors in calculating crop water requirements.展开更多
Pathophysiology is a science that deeply explores the occurrence and development of diseases,studies the mechanisms behind the final results,and integrates knowledge from multiple disciplines such as physiology,bioche...Pathophysiology is a science that deeply explores the occurrence and development of diseases,studies the mechanisms behind the final results,and integrates knowledge from multiple disciplines such as physiology,biochemistry,and immunology.The core lies in revealing the pathological and physiological changes during the disease process and analyzing the fundamental principles.In the medical education system,pathophysiology is an integral part of the foundational curriculum,serving as a bridge between basic medicine and clinical medicine.By studying pathophysiology,students can comprehensively understand the initial causes of diseases,pathological processes,and functional metabolic changes of the body under disease conditions.This discipline is also committed to cultivating students’systematic thinking,critical analysis skills,and problem-solving abilities,comprehensively enhancing their overall quality,making them more competitive and adaptable in the medical field.展开更多
Studying runoff characteristics and quantifying human activities’impact on northern Shaanxi,a crucial mineral resource area in China,is crucial to alleviate water resource contradictions.In this study,hydrological el...Studying runoff characteristics and quantifying human activities’impact on northern Shaanxi,a crucial mineral resource area in China,is crucial to alleviate water resource contradictions.In this study,hydrological element trends were analyzed using theβ-z-h three-parameter indication method.The Mann-Kendall,Pettitt,moving T,and Yamamoto methods were used to test the mutation point of hydrological elements.The Budyko framework was used to quantitatively assess the impacts of climate change and multiple human activities on runoff reduction.The results showed that(1):Precipitation(PRE),potential evapotranspiration(E0),and temperature(TEM)showed increasing trends;runoff in the Huangfuchuan,Gushanchuan,Kuye River,Tuwei River,Wuding River,Qingjian River,and Yanhe River catchments showed decreasing trends(HFC,GSC,KYR,TWR,WDR,QJR,YR);whereas runoff in the Jialu River(JLR)catchment showed a“V-shaped”trend from 1980 to2020.(2)Runoff was positively correlated with PRE and negatively correlated with E0and the subsurface index(n),with the elasticity coefficients of PRE,E0,and n showing an increasing trend in the change period.(3)Human activities were a key factor in runoff reduction,although the impact of different human activities showed spatial variations.This study provides a scientific foundation for achieving the sustainable development of water resources in mining areas.展开更多
The“One Zone,Two Lands,One Park,and One Corridor”development strategy implemented in Guangxi,as a key component of China’s regional strategic deployment,provides opportunities and challenges for the development of ...The“One Zone,Two Lands,One Park,and One Corridor”development strategy implemented in Guangxi,as a key component of China’s regional strategic deployment,provides opportunities and challenges for the development of local higher education.By comparing the strategic requirements,this paper uses the SWOT analysis method to conduct an in-depth analysis of the current status of higher education in Guangxi.The analysis results show that Guangxi’s higher education has certain advantages in geographical location but lacks educational resources.At the same time,the region’s higher education faces opportunities such as policy support and local industrial transformation and upgrading,but it also faces risks such as fierce external competition,mismatches between talent supply and demand,and financial constraints.Aiming at the above problems,this paper further proposes the Opportunity Capture Strategy,Adversity Breakthrough Strategy,Advantage Defense Strategy,and Disadvantage Resolution Strategy,aiming to solve the problems faced by regional higher education in serving the transformation of local development strategies.展开更多
The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air qu...The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air quality under the interaction of pollution and control in this mega city has attracted much attention. We analyzed the changes in ambient air quality in Beijing since the 1980’s using the Daniel trend test based on data from long-term monitoring stations. The results showed that different pollutants displayed three trends： a decreasing trend, an increasing trend and a flat trend. SO2, dustfall, B[a]P, NO2 and PM10 fit decreasing trend pattern, while NOx showed an increasing trend, and CO, ozone pollution, total suspended particulate （TSP）, as well as Pb fit the flat trend. The cause of the general air pollution in Beijing has changed from being predominantly related to coal burning to mixed traffic exhaust and coal burning related pollution. Seasonally, the pollution level is typically higher during the heating season from November to the following March. The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality. Changes of industrial structure and improved energy effciency, the use of clean energy and preferred use of clean coal, reduction in pollution sources, and implementation of advanced environmental standards have all contributed to the reduction in air pollution, particularly since 1998.展开更多
[Objective] The changes trend of temperature and frost-free period in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Method] According to the climate data of Xingtai City and Nangong County in 1958-2010,the changes trend of...[Objective] The changes trend of temperature and frost-free period in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Method] According to the climate data of Xingtai City and Nangong County in 1958-2010,the changes trend of the temperature,the first and the last frost day,and the frost-free days in Xingtai were studied.The characteristics of the changes of temperature and frost-free days in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Result] No matter in city or countryside,the annual average temperature was increasing.The climate tendency rates in Xingtai and Nangong were about 0.5 and 0.2 ℃/10 a respectively.Especially,since 1996,the annual average temperature increasing trend was about 1.0 ℃/10 a.The average temperature of the four seasons was also climbing and was similar to the increasing span of the annual average temperature.The annual average temperature increasing span was the largest in winter.And the increase of the annual average temperature in winter was the largest and the increase of the annual average temperature was caused by the increase of the average temperature in winter.The urban annual average temperature was obviously higher than that of the countryside,which reflected the characteristics of tropical island effect.No matter in the city or the countryside,the early frost day,final frost day and frost-free day showed same tendency,namely,the delay of early frost day,advance of final-frost day,extension of frost-free day;the day of urban early frost was late than that of the countryside,and the final frost day was earlier than that of the countryside,the frost-free days were longer than that of countryside and indirectly influenced by urban heat effect.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the development and application of thermal resources in Xingtai.展开更多
The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and pre...The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.展开更多
Glaciers,as“solid reservoirs”,are precious resources in arid areas.The study of glaciers is of great significance to the sustainable development and management of agriculture and the economy in northern Xinjiang.The...Glaciers,as“solid reservoirs”,are precious resources in arid areas.The study of glaciers is of great significance to the sustainable development and management of agriculture and the economy in northern Xinjiang.The area of glacier distribution on the 1963 topographic map data,1975 MSS data,2000 ETM data,2008 CBERS-2 data,2014 and 2018 ETM+were collected as secondary data.According to the remote sensing survey,the glacier areas in Northern Xinjiang are identified during 1963-2018.Based on the evolution of glacier area in the past 55 years,and using two scenarios,the average annual decrease area of a region during the whole 1963-2018 and the period with the minimum reduction area,the glacier areas of Southern Tianshan Mountains,Western Tianshan Mountains,Eastern Tianshan Mountains,the Sawuer Mountains and Altai Mountains in Northern Xinjiang,and the whole northern Xinjiang in 2030,2040,2050,and 2100 are examined and predicted.In 2100,the glacier area in Northern Xinjiang may decrease by 43%-59%.展开更多
Road traffic crashes are becoming thorny issues being faced worldwide.Traffic crashes are spatiotemporal events and the research on the spatiotemporal patterns and variation trends of traffic crashes has been carried ...Road traffic crashes are becoming thorny issues being faced worldwide.Traffic crashes are spatiotemporal events and the research on the spatiotemporal patterns and variation trends of traffic crashes has been carried out.However,the impact of built environment on traffic crash spatiotemporal trends has not received much attention.Moreover,the spatial non-stationarity between the variation trends of traffic crashes and their influencing factors is usually neglected.To make up for the lack of analysis of built environment factors influencing spatiotemporal hotspot trends in traffic crashes,this paper proposed a method of“ST-GWLR”for analyzing the influence of built environment factors on spatiotemporal hotspot trends of traffic crashes by combining the spatiotemporal hotspot trend analysis and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression(GWLR)modeling methods.Firstly,the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends were explored using the space-time cube model,hotspot analysis,and Mann-Kendall trend test.Then,the GWLR was introduced to capture the spatial non-stationarity neglected by the classic Global Logistic Regression(GLR)model,to improve the accuracy of the model estimation.GWLR model is used for the first time to analyze the significant local correlation between the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends and the built environment factors,to accurately and effectively identify the built environment factors that have significant influences on the hotspot trends of traffic crashes.The performance of the GWLR models and GLR models was examined and compared sufficiently.The results showed that the proposed ST-GWLR,which captured spatial non-stationarity,performed better than the classic GLR combined with spatiotemporal analysis,and improved the prediction accuracy of the models by 14.9%,13.9%,and 15.1%,respectively.There were significant local correlations between intensifying hotspots and persistent hotspots of traffic crashes and the built environment factors.The findings of this paper have positive implications for traffic safety management and urban built environment planning.展开更多
Based on the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the precipitation dataset of the U.S.Climate Prediction Center(CPC),the changing trend of summer precipitation in North China(3...Based on the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the precipitation dataset of the U.S.Climate Prediction Center(CPC),the changing trend of summer precipitation in North China(35°-40°N,110°-125°E)during 1979-2020 was studied.By calculating the monthly climatic precipitation in North China,it is found that precipitation was mainly distributed from June to August,so the trend of precipitation in North China from June to August was mainly analyzed.Firstly,the five-point moving average of regional mean precipitation in North China from June to August during 1979-2020 was conducted.It is found that the fitting curve of the five-point sliding average was basically consistent with the changing trend of regional precipitation,and it showed a certain upward trend.Secondly,the cumulative anomaly of regional average summer precipitation in North China showed a significant upward trend after 2005,which was similar to the moving average result,indicating that the precipitation in the later period increased compared with the earlier period.The changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years was analyzed,and the results show that precipitation showed a significant increasing trend in most areas of North China,so that regional average precipitation also tended to increase significantly.By comparing the precipitation in the past five years(2016-2020)and the last 36 years(1979-2015),it is found that the increase of summer precipitation in North China was more obvious,so the reasons for the increase in precipitation were further analyzed.Since the occurrence of precipitation requires favorable thermal dynamic conditions,the one-dimensional linear regression of water vapor content at 850 hPa and meridional wind speed was conduced,and it is found that the two variables tended to increase obviously,which was consistent with the increasing trend of precipitation.Seen from both the results of regional average and the spatial distribution of trends,the lower atmospheric water vapor content and wind speed showed a significant positive trend,which led to the increase of summer precipitation.Therefore,it can be concluded that there was a certain changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years,which can provide certain reference for the future forecast of summer precipitation in North China.展开更多
2006 is the commencing year of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and also the fifth anniversary of China joining the World Trade Organization. After the development of the trans...2006 is the commencing year of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and also the fifth anniversary of China joining the World Trade Organization. After the development of the transition period in these years, China’s national economy has successfully inte grated into the global system. National economy remains de- veloping at a high speed. The total amount of import and export reached more than 1.4 trillion USD,展开更多
The characteristics of the temperature variation in Baoji City were analyzed with the temperature data from 1952 to 2003.The results showed that the value of annual average temperature and seasonal average temperature...The characteristics of the temperature variation in Baoji City were analyzed with the temperature data from 1952 to 2003.The results showed that the value of annual average temperature and seasonal average temperature wavily rose before 1980 and obviously ascended after 1980.During the period of last 52 years,there was a process of ascent-descent-ascent in summer seasonal temperature variation.While in autumn and winter,the temperature decreased at first and then increased.The steady ascent of the temperature in summer season had a great contribution to the increment of its average temperature.The type of the variation trend in the average temperature in Baoji in recent 52 years was verified according to the results.展开更多
Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)poses an escalating public health challenge among adolescents and young adults worldwide.Despite the rising incidence,comprehensive data on the burden and trends of T2DM in thi...Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)poses an escalating public health challenge among adolescents and young adults worldwide.Despite the rising incidence,comprehensive data on the burden and trends of T2DM in this demographic remain scarce.This study aims to evaluate the burden of T2DM among individuals aged 10–24 years globally,regionally,and nationally from 1990 to 2021.Methods Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study(GBD)2021,we assessed incidence rates,disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs),and average annual percentage changes(AAPCs)for T2DM in the specified age group.Analyses accounted for variations by age,sex,and socio-demographic index(SDI).Joinpoint regression analysis identified years of significant trend shifts.Results The global incidence of T2DM among adolescents and young adults rose from 56.02 per 100,000(95%UI 43.03–72.32)in 1990 to 123.86 per 100,000(95%UI 100.43–149.79)in 2021,reflecting an AAPC of 3.01(95%CI 2.78–3.23).Notable increases were recorded in 1995,2002,and 2009,with joinpoints indicating significant trend stabilization post-2010 for prevalence and DALYs.The largest relative incidence increase was observed in the 15–19 age group[AAPC 2.97(95%CI 2.71–3.24)].Although T2DM mortality was 2.4 times higher in the 15–19 age group compared to the 20–24 age group,the latter exhibited a significantly higher overall mortality rate.Regionally,Oceania recorded the highest incidence rates in 2021,while North Africa and the Middle East showed the greatest AAPCs.High-SDI countries experienced the most substantial increase in T2DM burden,with males comprising 54.8%of cases.Conclusions From 1990 to 2021,the global burden of T2DM among adolescents and young adults has markedly increased,underscoring the necessity for targeted,region-specific interventions to address this issue.The observed demographic disparities in mortality rates necessitate the implementation of age-specific strategies.Furthermore,the emergent trends in T2DM indicators warrant urgent attention to mitigate the rising burden in this vulnerable population.展开更多
Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological dat...Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological data time series from 1916 to 2015 and 1941 to 2015 across the contiguous United States(CONUS)for 188 catchments to investigate the temporal trends and spatial features of runoff changes at multi-time scales.We also analyzed the relationships between runoff changes and climatic factors.Median descriptive statistics and Budyko coupled climate elasticity methods were used to calculate runoff elasticity in each time scale.The original Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test their trend significance in four time-scale(11,20,40,and 60 a),respectively.The results show that the trend of runoff changes is more significant in high time scales;total changes are heterogeneous over CONUS.After the 1970s,increases of up to 27%decade-1 were mainly concentrated in the mid-northern regions.Maximum temperature and catchment characteristics are vital factors for runoff alteration;runoff changes are independent of rainfall,and wet regions tend to have lower changes.These findings could help develop better regional water resource planning and management.展开更多
Surface wind speed(SWS)not only plays a crucial role in regulating the Earth's energy and hydrological cycle,but also is an important source of sustainable renewable energy.This study assesses the credibility of s...Surface wind speed(SWS)not only plays a crucial role in regulating the Earth's energy and hydrological cycle,but also is an important source of sustainable renewable energy.This study assesses the credibility of sws in three reanalyses(ERA5,MERRA2,and JRA-55)in East Asia using both satellite and in-situ observations.Results show all three reanalyses can capture the spatial pattern of swS as in observations,yet there are notable differences in magnitude.On land,ERA5 and MERRA2 overestimate the SWS by about 0.6 and 1.5 m s^(-1),respectively,whereas JRA-55 underestimates it.The biases over the oceans are opposite to those on land and are relatively small due to the assimilation of observations of oceanic surface winds.Overall,JRA-55 and ERA5 offer better estimates of seasonal means and variances of SWS than MERRA2.The observed SWS shows a negative trend of-0.08 m s^(-1)/10 yr on land and a positive trend of 0.09 m s^(-1)/10 yr in the western North Pacific.Only JRA-55 shows similar trends to observations over both land and ocean,while ERA5 and MERRA2 show varying degrees of deviation from the observations.Further investigation shows that there is a strong link between the trend of SWS and that of the large-scale circulation,and that a large part of the SwS trend can be attributed to changes in large-scale circulations.展开更多
Objective:To analyze the trend of major malignant tumor mortality in Shandong Province,eastern China from 1970 to 2021,and to provide the scientific basis for malignant tumor prevention and control.Methods:Cancer mort...Objective:To analyze the trend of major malignant tumor mortality in Shandong Province,eastern China from 1970 to 2021,and to provide the scientific basis for malignant tumor prevention and control.Methods:Cancer mortality data were sourced from three nationwide cause-of-death surveys and the Shandong Death Registration System.Trends in overall mortality and major causes of death were elucidated through indi-cators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates,by comparing findings from the three comprehensive mortality surveys and the Shandong Death Registration System.The difference decomposing method was em-ployed to estimate the contributions of non-demographic and demographic factors to the observed changes in cancer mortality.Results:From 1970 to 2021,the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors witnessed an overall increase in Shan-dong Province.The age-standardized mortality rate initially rose before subsequently declining.The proportion of cancer deaths among all causes of death increased initially and then stabilized at a high level of approximately 25%.Both non-demographic and demographic factors played a role in the rise of the crude cancer mortality rate,with the proportion attributed to demographic factors gradually surpassing that of non-demographic factors.De-spite the continuous increase in the crude mortality rate,the adjusted mortality rate exhibited a downward trend since 1990.Significant changes were observed in the ranking of the mortality rates of major cancers.For exam-ple,the mortality rate of lung cancer exhibited a continuous upward trajectory,ascending from the fifth to the first place and marking a 7.69-fold increase from 1970 to 2021.Conversely,digestive system tumors,including gastric cancer,esophageal cancer,and liver cancer,displayed varying degrees of decline,particularly in the stan-dardized rates,which demonstrated a notable downward trend since 1990.The crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer and breast cancer showed an obvious upward trend,but the standardized rate did not rise significantly.For cervical cancer,both the crude and adjusted mortality rates displayed a pattern of initially decreasing and then increasing.Conclusions:Malignant tumors remain a significant threat to the residents of Shandong Province.The changing trends in various malignant tumors are inconsistent,underscoring the need for tailored intervention strategies to effectively control different types of malignant tumors.展开更多
Studying the spatiotemporal variation and driving mechanisms of vegetation net primary productivity(NPP)in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration(GPUA)of China is highly important for regional green and low-carbon de...Studying the spatiotemporal variation and driving mechanisms of vegetation net primary productivity(NPP)in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration(GPUA)of China is highly important for regional green and low-carbon development.This study used the Theil-Sen trend analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test,coefficient of variation,Hurst index,and machine learning method(eXtreme Gradient Boosting and SHapley Additive exPlanations(XGBoost-SHAP))to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of NPP in the GPUA from 2001 to 2020 and reveal its response to climate change and human activities.The results found that during 2001-2020,the averageNPP in the GPUA showed a significant upward trend,with an annual growth rate of 10.84 g C/(m^(2)•a).The multi-year average NPP in the GPUA was 484.83 g C/(m^(2)•a),with higher values in the southwestern Qinling Mountains and lower values in the central and northeastern cropland and built-up areas.The average coefficient of variation of NPP in the GPUA was 0.14,indicating a relatively stable state overall,but 72.72%of the study area showed weak anti-persistence,suggesting that NPP in most areas may have declined in the short term.According to XGBoost-SHAP analyses,elevation,land use type and precipitation were identified as the main driving factors of NPP.Appropriate precipitation and higher temperatures promote NPP growth,whereas extreme climates,high population density,and nighttime lighting inhibit NPP.This study has important theoretical and practical significance for achieving regional sustainable development,offers a scientific basis for formulating effective ecological protection and restoration strategies,and promotes green,coordinated,and sustainable development in the GPUA.展开更多
The rapid acceleration of global warming and intensifying human activities have exacerbated the fragility and climate sensitivity of ecosystems worldwide,particularly in arid regions.Vegetation,a key component of ecos...The rapid acceleration of global warming and intensifying human activities have exacerbated the fragility and climate sensitivity of ecosystems worldwide,particularly in arid regions.Vegetation,a key component of ecosystems,is critical in enhancing the ecological environment.The Ertix River Basin(ERB)is a transboundary watershed that spans multiple countries,mostly in arid regions.However,research on the fractional vegetation coverage(FVC)and its driving factors in the ERB remains limited.Investigating the spatiotemporal changes in the FVC and its relationship with various factors in the ERB can offer scientific support for optimizing regional vegetation restoration policies and promoting the coordinated development of human-environment interactions.The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)MYD13Q1 V6 data were obtained via the Google Earth Engine platform,and methods including the pixel dichotomy method,Theil-Sen median trend analysis,and Mann‒Kendall test were employed to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of the FVC in the ERB from 2003 to 2023,with future trend forecast using the Hurst index.The impacts of natural and socioeconomic factors on the FVC were evaluated through the partial least squares-structural equation model(PLS-SEM).The results indicated that the FVC in the ERB showed a slight degradation trend with an average annual decrease of 0.046%during 2003-2023,with significant changes occurring in 2004,2010,and 2019.Spatially,53.380%of the study area was degraded,and the change in the FVC increased gradually from southeast to northwest.The FVC in 63.000%of the study area was highly stable and displayed long-term persistence;and the direct impact of natural factors(path coefficient of 0.617)on the FVC was significantly higher than that of socioeconomic factors(0.167).Among the natural factors,precipitation(0.999)was the most significant.This study reveals the significant impacts of natural and socioeconomic factors on vegetation dynamics in arid regions,and provides a scientific basis for transnational ecological conservation.展开更多
There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters （i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness） were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis...There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters （i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness） were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis was then applied to study the spatial autocorrelation for these parameters; while range, a parameter in the semivariogram that meters the scale of spatial autocorrelation, was estimated. The results indicated that the range for sorting coefficient was physically meaningful. The trend vectors calculated from grain size trend analysis model were consistent with the annual ocean circulation patterns and sediment transport rates according to previous studies. Therefore the range derived from the semivariogram of mean size can be used as the characteristic distance in the grain size trend analysis, which may remove the bias caused by the traditional way of basing on experiences or testing methods to get the characteristic distance. Hence the results from geostatistical analysis can also offer useful information for the determination of sediment sampling density in the future field work.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42277191,No.42377072,No.42107087。
文摘Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies.In this study,ET_(0) was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model,and the spatiotemporal variations in ET_(0) over China from 1960 to 2019 were analyzed.We then quantified the contributions of five driving factors(air temperature,wind speed,relative humidity,sunshine hours,and CO_(2) concentration)to the ET_(0) trends via a detrending experiment.The results revealed that nationwide ET_(0) showed no significant(p>0.05)decreasing trend from 1960 to 2019,with a trend of−8.56×10^(−2)mm a^(−2).The average temperature and wind speed were identified as the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends at the national scale.The contributions of the driving factors to the ET_(0) trends were ranked in the following order:average temperature(21.3%)>wind speed(−15.63%)>sunshine hours(−11.99%)>CO_(2) concentration(6.36%)>relative humidity(3.58%).Spatially,the dominant factors influencing the ET_(0) trends varied widely.In the southeastern region,average temperature and sunshine hours dominated the trends of ET_(0),whereas wind speed and average temperature were the dominant factors in the northwestern region.The findings provide valuable insights into the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends in China and highlight the importance of considering different driving factors in calculating crop water requirements.
文摘Pathophysiology is a science that deeply explores the occurrence and development of diseases,studies the mechanisms behind the final results,and integrates knowledge from multiple disciplines such as physiology,biochemistry,and immunology.The core lies in revealing the pathological and physiological changes during the disease process and analyzing the fundamental principles.In the medical education system,pathophysiology is an integral part of the foundational curriculum,serving as a bridge between basic medicine and clinical medicine.By studying pathophysiology,students can comprehensively understand the initial causes of diseases,pathological processes,and functional metabolic changes of the body under disease conditions.This discipline is also committed to cultivating students’systematic thinking,critical analysis skills,and problem-solving abilities,comprehensively enhancing their overall quality,making them more competitive and adaptable in the medical field.
基金Department of Water Resources of Shaanxi Province of China,No.2023slkj-8National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.51779209。
文摘Studying runoff characteristics and quantifying human activities’impact on northern Shaanxi,a crucial mineral resource area in China,is crucial to alleviate water resource contradictions.In this study,hydrological element trends were analyzed using theβ-z-h three-parameter indication method.The Mann-Kendall,Pettitt,moving T,and Yamamoto methods were used to test the mutation point of hydrological elements.The Budyko framework was used to quantitatively assess the impacts of climate change and multiple human activities on runoff reduction.The results showed that(1):Precipitation(PRE),potential evapotranspiration(E0),and temperature(TEM)showed increasing trends;runoff in the Huangfuchuan,Gushanchuan,Kuye River,Tuwei River,Wuding River,Qingjian River,and Yanhe River catchments showed decreasing trends(HFC,GSC,KYR,TWR,WDR,QJR,YR);whereas runoff in the Jialu River(JLR)catchment showed a“V-shaped”trend from 1980 to2020.(2)Runoff was positively correlated with PRE and negatively correlated with E0and the subsurface index(n),with the elasticity coefficients of PRE,E0,and n showing an increasing trend in the change period.(3)Human activities were a key factor in runoff reduction,although the impact of different human activities showed spatial variations.This study provides a scientific foundation for achieving the sustainable development of water resources in mining areas.
文摘The“One Zone,Two Lands,One Park,and One Corridor”development strategy implemented in Guangxi,as a key component of China’s regional strategic deployment,provides opportunities and challenges for the development of local higher education.By comparing the strategic requirements,this paper uses the SWOT analysis method to conduct an in-depth analysis of the current status of higher education in Guangxi.The analysis results show that Guangxi’s higher education has certain advantages in geographical location but lacks educational resources.At the same time,the region’s higher education faces opportunities such as policy support and local industrial transformation and upgrading,but it also faces risks such as fierce external competition,mismatches between talent supply and demand,and financial constraints.Aiming at the above problems,this paper further proposes the Opportunity Capture Strategy,Adversity Breakthrough Strategy,Advantage Defense Strategy,and Disadvantage Resolution Strategy,aiming to solve the problems faced by regional higher education in serving the transformation of local development strategies.
基金supported by the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41030744)the Specialized Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology
文摘The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air quality under the interaction of pollution and control in this mega city has attracted much attention. We analyzed the changes in ambient air quality in Beijing since the 1980’s using the Daniel trend test based on data from long-term monitoring stations. The results showed that different pollutants displayed three trends： a decreasing trend, an increasing trend and a flat trend. SO2, dustfall, B[a]P, NO2 and PM10 fit decreasing trend pattern, while NOx showed an increasing trend, and CO, ozone pollution, total suspended particulate （TSP）, as well as Pb fit the flat trend. The cause of the general air pollution in Beijing has changed from being predominantly related to coal burning to mixed traffic exhaust and coal burning related pollution. Seasonally, the pollution level is typically higher during the heating season from November to the following March. The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality. Changes of industrial structure and improved energy effciency, the use of clean energy and preferred use of clean coal, reduction in pollution sources, and implementation of advanced environmental standards have all contributed to the reduction in air pollution, particularly since 1998.
文摘[Objective] The changes trend of temperature and frost-free period in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Method] According to the climate data of Xingtai City and Nangong County in 1958-2010,the changes trend of the temperature,the first and the last frost day,and the frost-free days in Xingtai were studied.The characteristics of the changes of temperature and frost-free days in Xingtai in recent 53 years were studied.[Result] No matter in city or countryside,the annual average temperature was increasing.The climate tendency rates in Xingtai and Nangong were about 0.5 and 0.2 ℃/10 a respectively.Especially,since 1996,the annual average temperature increasing trend was about 1.0 ℃/10 a.The average temperature of the four seasons was also climbing and was similar to the increasing span of the annual average temperature.The annual average temperature increasing span was the largest in winter.And the increase of the annual average temperature in winter was the largest and the increase of the annual average temperature was caused by the increase of the average temperature in winter.The urban annual average temperature was obviously higher than that of the countryside,which reflected the characteristics of tropical island effect.No matter in the city or the countryside,the early frost day,final frost day and frost-free day showed same tendency,namely,the delay of early frost day,advance of final-frost day,extension of frost-free day;the day of urban early frost was late than that of the countryside,and the final frost day was earlier than that of the countryside,the frost-free days were longer than that of countryside and indirectly influenced by urban heat effect.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the development and application of thermal resources in Xingtai.
文摘The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.
基金jointly supported by the“Technology and Demonstration Applications for Monitoring High Snow-glacier and Geological Hazards in Asia and the Arctic”of Earth Observations Group Project Funding(2021YFE0116800)。
文摘Glaciers,as“solid reservoirs”,are precious resources in arid areas.The study of glaciers is of great significance to the sustainable development and management of agriculture and the economy in northern Xinjiang.The area of glacier distribution on the 1963 topographic map data,1975 MSS data,2000 ETM data,2008 CBERS-2 data,2014 and 2018 ETM+were collected as secondary data.According to the remote sensing survey,the glacier areas in Northern Xinjiang are identified during 1963-2018.Based on the evolution of glacier area in the past 55 years,and using two scenarios,the average annual decrease area of a region during the whole 1963-2018 and the period with the minimum reduction area,the glacier areas of Southern Tianshan Mountains,Western Tianshan Mountains,Eastern Tianshan Mountains,the Sawuer Mountains and Altai Mountains in Northern Xinjiang,and the whole northern Xinjiang in 2030,2040,2050,and 2100 are examined and predicted.In 2100,the glacier area in Northern Xinjiang may decrease by 43%-59%.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42101449,42090012 and 61825103]the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province,China[grant numbers 2022CFB773 and 2020CFA001]+2 种基金the Key Research and Development Program of Hubei Province,China[grant number 2022BAA048]the Chutian Scholar Program of Hubei Provincethe Yellow Crane Talent Scheme.
文摘Road traffic crashes are becoming thorny issues being faced worldwide.Traffic crashes are spatiotemporal events and the research on the spatiotemporal patterns and variation trends of traffic crashes has been carried out.However,the impact of built environment on traffic crash spatiotemporal trends has not received much attention.Moreover,the spatial non-stationarity between the variation trends of traffic crashes and their influencing factors is usually neglected.To make up for the lack of analysis of built environment factors influencing spatiotemporal hotspot trends in traffic crashes,this paper proposed a method of“ST-GWLR”for analyzing the influence of built environment factors on spatiotemporal hotspot trends of traffic crashes by combining the spatiotemporal hotspot trend analysis and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression(GWLR)modeling methods.Firstly,the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends were explored using the space-time cube model,hotspot analysis,and Mann-Kendall trend test.Then,the GWLR was introduced to capture the spatial non-stationarity neglected by the classic Global Logistic Regression(GLR)model,to improve the accuracy of the model estimation.GWLR model is used for the first time to analyze the significant local correlation between the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends and the built environment factors,to accurately and effectively identify the built environment factors that have significant influences on the hotspot trends of traffic crashes.The performance of the GWLR models and GLR models was examined and compared sufficiently.The results showed that the proposed ST-GWLR,which captured spatial non-stationarity,performed better than the classic GLR combined with spatiotemporal analysis,and improved the prediction accuracy of the models by 14.9%,13.9%,and 15.1%,respectively.There were significant local correlations between intensifying hotspots and persistent hotspots of traffic crashes and the built environment factors.The findings of this paper have positive implications for traffic safety management and urban built environment planning.
文摘Based on the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the precipitation dataset of the U.S.Climate Prediction Center(CPC),the changing trend of summer precipitation in North China(35°-40°N,110°-125°E)during 1979-2020 was studied.By calculating the monthly climatic precipitation in North China,it is found that precipitation was mainly distributed from June to August,so the trend of precipitation in North China from June to August was mainly analyzed.Firstly,the five-point moving average of regional mean precipitation in North China from June to August during 1979-2020 was conducted.It is found that the fitting curve of the five-point sliding average was basically consistent with the changing trend of regional precipitation,and it showed a certain upward trend.Secondly,the cumulative anomaly of regional average summer precipitation in North China showed a significant upward trend after 2005,which was similar to the moving average result,indicating that the precipitation in the later period increased compared with the earlier period.The changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years was analyzed,and the results show that precipitation showed a significant increasing trend in most areas of North China,so that regional average precipitation also tended to increase significantly.By comparing the precipitation in the past five years(2016-2020)and the last 36 years(1979-2015),it is found that the increase of summer precipitation in North China was more obvious,so the reasons for the increase in precipitation were further analyzed.Since the occurrence of precipitation requires favorable thermal dynamic conditions,the one-dimensional linear regression of water vapor content at 850 hPa and meridional wind speed was conduced,and it is found that the two variables tended to increase obviously,which was consistent with the increasing trend of precipitation.Seen from both the results of regional average and the spatial distribution of trends,the lower atmospheric water vapor content and wind speed showed a significant positive trend,which led to the increase of summer precipitation.Therefore,it can be concluded that there was a certain changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years,which can provide certain reference for the future forecast of summer precipitation in North China.
文摘2006 is the commencing year of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and also the fifth anniversary of China joining the World Trade Organization. After the development of the transition period in these years, China’s national economy has successfully inte grated into the global system. National economy remains de- veloping at a high speed. The total amount of import and export reached more than 1.4 trillion USD,
基金Supported by Fund of Teacher Education Innovation Platform in Southwest University
文摘The characteristics of the temperature variation in Baoji City were analyzed with the temperature data from 1952 to 2003.The results showed that the value of annual average temperature and seasonal average temperature wavily rose before 1980 and obviously ascended after 1980.During the period of last 52 years,there was a process of ascent-descent-ascent in summer seasonal temperature variation.While in autumn and winter,the temperature decreased at first and then increased.The steady ascent of the temperature in summer season had a great contribution to the increment of its average temperature.The type of the variation trend in the average temperature in Baoji in recent 52 years was verified according to the results.
文摘Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)poses an escalating public health challenge among adolescents and young adults worldwide.Despite the rising incidence,comprehensive data on the burden and trends of T2DM in this demographic remain scarce.This study aims to evaluate the burden of T2DM among individuals aged 10–24 years globally,regionally,and nationally from 1990 to 2021.Methods Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study(GBD)2021,we assessed incidence rates,disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs),and average annual percentage changes(AAPCs)for T2DM in the specified age group.Analyses accounted for variations by age,sex,and socio-demographic index(SDI).Joinpoint regression analysis identified years of significant trend shifts.Results The global incidence of T2DM among adolescents and young adults rose from 56.02 per 100,000(95%UI 43.03–72.32)in 1990 to 123.86 per 100,000(95%UI 100.43–149.79)in 2021,reflecting an AAPC of 3.01(95%CI 2.78–3.23).Notable increases were recorded in 1995,2002,and 2009,with joinpoints indicating significant trend stabilization post-2010 for prevalence and DALYs.The largest relative incidence increase was observed in the 15–19 age group[AAPC 2.97(95%CI 2.71–3.24)].Although T2DM mortality was 2.4 times higher in the 15–19 age group compared to the 20–24 age group,the latter exhibited a significantly higher overall mortality rate.Regionally,Oceania recorded the highest incidence rates in 2021,while North Africa and the Middle East showed the greatest AAPCs.High-SDI countries experienced the most substantial increase in T2DM burden,with males comprising 54.8%of cases.Conclusions From 1990 to 2021,the global burden of T2DM among adolescents and young adults has markedly increased,underscoring the necessity for targeted,region-specific interventions to address this issue.The observed demographic disparities in mortality rates necessitate the implementation of age-specific strategies.Furthermore,the emergent trends in T2DM indicators warrant urgent attention to mitigate the rising burden in this vulnerable population.
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0407303)“Young Talents”Project of Northeast Agricultural University(No.20QC13)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.E2017009)。
文摘Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological data time series from 1916 to 2015 and 1941 to 2015 across the contiguous United States(CONUS)for 188 catchments to investigate the temporal trends and spatial features of runoff changes at multi-time scales.We also analyzed the relationships between runoff changes and climatic factors.Median descriptive statistics and Budyko coupled climate elasticity methods were used to calculate runoff elasticity in each time scale.The original Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test their trend significance in four time-scale(11,20,40,and 60 a),respectively.The results show that the trend of runoff changes is more significant in high time scales;total changes are heterogeneous over CONUS.After the 1970s,increases of up to 27%decade-1 were mainly concentrated in the mid-northern regions.Maximum temperature and catchment characteristics are vital factors for runoff alteration;runoff changes are independent of rainfall,and wet regions tend to have lower changes.These findings could help develop better regional water resource planning and management.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42361144708,42205041,and 42175165]a scientific research project of the Shanghai Investigation,Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.[grant number 2023CN(83)-001]the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Surface wind speed(SWS)not only plays a crucial role in regulating the Earth's energy and hydrological cycle,but also is an important source of sustainable renewable energy.This study assesses the credibility of sws in three reanalyses(ERA5,MERRA2,and JRA-55)in East Asia using both satellite and in-situ observations.Results show all three reanalyses can capture the spatial pattern of swS as in observations,yet there are notable differences in magnitude.On land,ERA5 and MERRA2 overestimate the SWS by about 0.6 and 1.5 m s^(-1),respectively,whereas JRA-55 underestimates it.The biases over the oceans are opposite to those on land and are relatively small due to the assimilation of observations of oceanic surface winds.Overall,JRA-55 and ERA5 offer better estimates of seasonal means and variances of SWS than MERRA2.The observed SWS shows a negative trend of-0.08 m s^(-1)/10 yr on land and a positive trend of 0.09 m s^(-1)/10 yr in the western North Pacific.Only JRA-55 shows similar trends to observations over both land and ocean,while ERA5 and MERRA2 show varying degrees of deviation from the observations.Further investigation shows that there is a strong link between the trend of SWS and that of the large-scale circulation,and that a large part of the SwS trend can be attributed to changes in large-scale circulations.
基金funded by the Shandong Science and Technol-ogy Development Plan Project(grant number:2016GSF201231)Med-ical and Health Technology Development Plan of Shandong Province(grant numbers:202012051127,202412051228)National Key Research and Development Program-Precision Medicine Research Key Project(grant number:2016YFC0901300).
文摘Objective:To analyze the trend of major malignant tumor mortality in Shandong Province,eastern China from 1970 to 2021,and to provide the scientific basis for malignant tumor prevention and control.Methods:Cancer mortality data were sourced from three nationwide cause-of-death surveys and the Shandong Death Registration System.Trends in overall mortality and major causes of death were elucidated through indi-cators such as mortality rates and age-adjusted death rates,by comparing findings from the three comprehensive mortality surveys and the Shandong Death Registration System.The difference decomposing method was em-ployed to estimate the contributions of non-demographic and demographic factors to the observed changes in cancer mortality.Results:From 1970 to 2021,the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors witnessed an overall increase in Shan-dong Province.The age-standardized mortality rate initially rose before subsequently declining.The proportion of cancer deaths among all causes of death increased initially and then stabilized at a high level of approximately 25%.Both non-demographic and demographic factors played a role in the rise of the crude cancer mortality rate,with the proportion attributed to demographic factors gradually surpassing that of non-demographic factors.De-spite the continuous increase in the crude mortality rate,the adjusted mortality rate exhibited a downward trend since 1990.Significant changes were observed in the ranking of the mortality rates of major cancers.For exam-ple,the mortality rate of lung cancer exhibited a continuous upward trajectory,ascending from the fifth to the first place and marking a 7.69-fold increase from 1970 to 2021.Conversely,digestive system tumors,including gastric cancer,esophageal cancer,and liver cancer,displayed varying degrees of decline,particularly in the stan-dardized rates,which demonstrated a notable downward trend since 1990.The crude mortality rate of colorectal cancer and breast cancer showed an obvious upward trend,but the standardized rate did not rise significantly.For cervical cancer,both the crude and adjusted mortality rates displayed a pattern of initially decreasing and then increasing.Conclusions:Malignant tumors remain a significant threat to the residents of Shandong Province.The changing trends in various malignant tumors are inconsistent,underscoring the need for tailored intervention strategies to effectively control different types of malignant tumors.
基金funded by the Xi'an Social Science Fund(24QL38).
文摘Studying the spatiotemporal variation and driving mechanisms of vegetation net primary productivity(NPP)in the Guanzhong Plain Urban Agglomeration(GPUA)of China is highly important for regional green and low-carbon development.This study used the Theil-Sen trend analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test,coefficient of variation,Hurst index,and machine learning method(eXtreme Gradient Boosting and SHapley Additive exPlanations(XGBoost-SHAP))to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of NPP in the GPUA from 2001 to 2020 and reveal its response to climate change and human activities.The results found that during 2001-2020,the averageNPP in the GPUA showed a significant upward trend,with an annual growth rate of 10.84 g C/(m^(2)•a).The multi-year average NPP in the GPUA was 484.83 g C/(m^(2)•a),with higher values in the southwestern Qinling Mountains and lower values in the central and northeastern cropland and built-up areas.The average coefficient of variation of NPP in the GPUA was 0.14,indicating a relatively stable state overall,but 72.72%of the study area showed weak anti-persistence,suggesting that NPP in most areas may have declined in the short term.According to XGBoost-SHAP analyses,elevation,land use type and precipitation were identified as the main driving factors of NPP.Appropriate precipitation and higher temperatures promote NPP growth,whereas extreme climates,high population density,and nighttime lighting inhibit NPP.This study has important theoretical and practical significance for achieving regional sustainable development,offers a scientific basis for formulating effective ecological protection and restoration strategies,and promotes green,coordinated,and sustainable development in the GPUA.
基金funded by the Third Xinjiang Comprehensive Scientific Investigation Project,China(2022xjkk0702)the Western Young Scholars Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(2022-XBQNXZ-001)the Tianshan Talent Development Program,China(2022TSYCCX0006).
文摘The rapid acceleration of global warming and intensifying human activities have exacerbated the fragility and climate sensitivity of ecosystems worldwide,particularly in arid regions.Vegetation,a key component of ecosystems,is critical in enhancing the ecological environment.The Ertix River Basin(ERB)is a transboundary watershed that spans multiple countries,mostly in arid regions.However,research on the fractional vegetation coverage(FVC)and its driving factors in the ERB remains limited.Investigating the spatiotemporal changes in the FVC and its relationship with various factors in the ERB can offer scientific support for optimizing regional vegetation restoration policies and promoting the coordinated development of human-environment interactions.The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)MYD13Q1 V6 data were obtained via the Google Earth Engine platform,and methods including the pixel dichotomy method,Theil-Sen median trend analysis,and Mann‒Kendall test were employed to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of the FVC in the ERB from 2003 to 2023,with future trend forecast using the Hurst index.The impacts of natural and socioeconomic factors on the FVC were evaluated through the partial least squares-structural equation model(PLS-SEM).The results indicated that the FVC in the ERB showed a slight degradation trend with an average annual decrease of 0.046%during 2003-2023,with significant changes occurring in 2004,2010,and 2019.Spatially,53.380%of the study area was degraded,and the change in the FVC increased gradually from southeast to northwest.The FVC in 63.000%of the study area was highly stable and displayed long-term persistence;and the direct impact of natural factors(path coefficient of 0.617)on the FVC was significantly higher than that of socioeconomic factors(0.167).Among the natural factors,precipitation(0.999)was the most significant.This study reveals the significant impacts of natural and socioeconomic factors on vegetation dynamics in arid regions,and provides a scientific basis for transnational ecological conservation.
基金Chinese Offshore Investigation and Assessment Project, No.908-01-ST09 State Student Innovation Training Project, No.SIT-05+1 种基金 Program for New Century Excellent Talents, No.NCET-06-0446 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.J0630535 Acknowledgement The research vessel Experiment 2 （South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences） performed the field survey and Prof. Lizhe Cai and his colleagues help to collect the sediment samples. Prof. Shu Gao and Asso. Prof. Yongzhan Zhang have provided a lot of support and valuable suggestions for this study. Miss Xiaoqin Du helped with sediment transportation and Mr. Fengyang Min assisted in the operation of related software. The comments from Dr. M. Xia （Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA, USA） have improved a lot in the presentation of the paper.
文摘There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters （i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness） were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis was then applied to study the spatial autocorrelation for these parameters; while range, a parameter in the semivariogram that meters the scale of spatial autocorrelation, was estimated. The results indicated that the range for sorting coefficient was physically meaningful. The trend vectors calculated from grain size trend analysis model were consistent with the annual ocean circulation patterns and sediment transport rates according to previous studies. Therefore the range derived from the semivariogram of mean size can be used as the characteristic distance in the grain size trend analysis, which may remove the bias caused by the traditional way of basing on experiences or testing methods to get the characteristic distance. Hence the results from geostatistical analysis can also offer useful information for the determination of sediment sampling density in the future field work.
