Among the end-users of the power grid,especially in the rural power grid,there are a large number of users and the situation is complex.In this complex situation,there are more leakage caused by insulation damage and ...Among the end-users of the power grid,especially in the rural power grid,there are a large number of users and the situation is complex.In this complex situation,there are more leakage caused by insulation damage and a small number of users stealing electricity.Maintenance staff will take a long time to determine the location of the abnormal user meter box.In view of this situation,themethod of subjective fuzzy clustering and quartile difference is adopted to determine the partition threshold.The power consumption data of end-users are divided into three regions:high,normal and low,which can be used to screen users in the area of abnormal power consumption.Then the trend judgment method is used to further accurately screen to improve the accuracy and reduce the number of users in the abnormal range.Finally according to abnormal power consumption auxiliary locate abnormal electricity users list box.Then the simulation environment is set to verify the application of membership fuzzy clustering and trend judgment in power consumption data partition.展开更多
为实现隧道涌水量的高精度预测,在查阅相关资料的基础上,以多种单项预测模型为基础,构建了隧道涌水量的优化组合预测模型。首先,利用遗传算法、粒子群算法和最小二乘法构建了多种单项优化预测模型;其次,在累加叠加和累乘叠加思路的基础...为实现隧道涌水量的高精度预测,在查阅相关资料的基础上,以多种单项预测模型为基础,构建了隧道涌水量的优化组合预测模型。首先,利用遗传算法、粒子群算法和最小二乘法构建了多种单项优化预测模型;其次,在累加叠加和累乘叠加思路的基础上,提出利用整体组合权值和局部组合权值构建出改进后的组合预测模型,以实现隧道涌水量的逐步优化组合预测;最后,再利用重标极差分析(rescaled range analysis,简称R/S分析)判断隧道涌水量序列的发展趋势,以佐证前述组合模型预测结果的准确性。实例结果表明:各类单项预测模型的参数优化可以有效提高预测精度,且组合预测结果的相对误差小于2%,较单项预测模型具有相对更优的预测效果;同时,在组合预测过程中,累加叠加和累乘叠加的预测精度及稳定性均相当,以累乘叠加的预测效果相对略优,但差异不大;另外,R/S分析结果的Hurst指数大于0.5,得出隧道涌水量呈下降趋势,与预测分析结果一致,验证了前述预测模型的有效性,为隧道涌水量预测研究提供了一种新的思路。展开更多
基金This work is supported by Open Fund of Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory for Operation and Control of Cascaded Hydropower Station(2019KJX10)Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Tsinghua University(SKLD17KM07).
文摘Among the end-users of the power grid,especially in the rural power grid,there are a large number of users and the situation is complex.In this complex situation,there are more leakage caused by insulation damage and a small number of users stealing electricity.Maintenance staff will take a long time to determine the location of the abnormal user meter box.In view of this situation,themethod of subjective fuzzy clustering and quartile difference is adopted to determine the partition threshold.The power consumption data of end-users are divided into three regions:high,normal and low,which can be used to screen users in the area of abnormal power consumption.Then the trend judgment method is used to further accurately screen to improve the accuracy and reduce the number of users in the abnormal range.Finally according to abnormal power consumption auxiliary locate abnormal electricity users list box.Then the simulation environment is set to verify the application of membership fuzzy clustering and trend judgment in power consumption data partition.
文摘为实现隧道涌水量的高精度预测,在查阅相关资料的基础上,以多种单项预测模型为基础,构建了隧道涌水量的优化组合预测模型。首先,利用遗传算法、粒子群算法和最小二乘法构建了多种单项优化预测模型;其次,在累加叠加和累乘叠加思路的基础上,提出利用整体组合权值和局部组合权值构建出改进后的组合预测模型,以实现隧道涌水量的逐步优化组合预测;最后,再利用重标极差分析(rescaled range analysis,简称R/S分析)判断隧道涌水量序列的发展趋势,以佐证前述组合模型预测结果的准确性。实例结果表明:各类单项预测模型的参数优化可以有效提高预测精度,且组合预测结果的相对误差小于2%,较单项预测模型具有相对更优的预测效果;同时,在组合预测过程中,累加叠加和累乘叠加的预测精度及稳定性均相当,以累乘叠加的预测效果相对略优,但差异不大;另外,R/S分析结果的Hurst指数大于0.5,得出隧道涌水量呈下降趋势,与预测分析结果一致,验证了前述预测模型的有效性,为隧道涌水量预测研究提供了一种新的思路。
