With the rapid development of the 5G communications,the edge intelligence enables Internet of Vehicles(IoV)to provide traffic forecasting to alleviate traffic congestion and improve quality of experience of users simu...With the rapid development of the 5G communications,the edge intelligence enables Internet of Vehicles(IoV)to provide traffic forecasting to alleviate traffic congestion and improve quality of experience of users simultaneously.To enhance the forecasting performance,a novel edge-enabled probabilistic graph structure learning model(PGSLM)is proposed,which learns the graph structure and parameters by the edge sensing information and discrete probability distribution on the edges of the traffic road network.To obtain the spatio-temporal dependencies of traffic data,the learned dynamic graphs are combined with a predefined static graph to generate the graph convolution part of the recurrent graph convolution module.During the training process,a new graph training loss is introduced,which is composed of the K nearest neighbor(KNN)graph constructed by the traffic feature tensors and the graph structure.Detailed experimental results show that,compared with existing models,the proposed PGSLM improves the traffic prediction performance in terms of average absolute error and root mean square error in IoV.展开更多
Traffic forecasting provides the estimation of future traffic state to help traffic control,travel guide,etc. This paper compared several widely used traffic forecasting methods,and analyzed each one's performance...Traffic forecasting provides the estimation of future traffic state to help traffic control,travel guide,etc. This paper compared several widely used traffic forecasting methods,and analyzed each one's performance in detail to make conclusions,which could redound to researchers choosing an appropriate traffic forecasting method in their own works. Compared with conventional works,this paper creatively assessed the performance of traffic forecasting methods based on travel time index (TTI) data prediction,which made the accuracy of our comparison better.展开更多
The local multiple regression fuzzy(LMRF)model based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logical system and its application in traffic forecasting is proposed. Besides its prediction accuracy is testified and the model is proved m...The local multiple regression fuzzy(LMRF)model based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logical system and its application in traffic forecasting is proposed. Besides its prediction accuracy is testified and the model is proved much better than conventional forecasting methods. According to the regional traffic system, the model perfectly states the complex non-linear relation of the traffic and the local social economy. The model also efficiently deals with the system lack of enough data.展开更多
With the advent of deep learning,various deep neural network architectures have been proposed to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies in traffic data.This paper introduces a novel Deep Bi-directional Adapt...With the advent of deep learning,various deep neural network architectures have been proposed to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies in traffic data.This paper introduces a novel Deep Bi-directional Adaptive Gating Graph Convolutional Network(DBAG-GCN)model for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting.The proposed model leverages the power of graph convolutional networks to capture the spatial dependencies in the road network topology and incorporates bi-directional gating mechanisms to control the information flow adaptively.Furthermore,we introduce a multi-scale temporal convolution module to capture multi-scale temporal dynamics and a contextual attention mechanism to integrate external factors such as weather conditions and event information.Extensive experiments on real-world traffic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of DBAG-GCN compared to state-of-the-art baselines,achieving significant improvements in prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.The DBAG-GCN model provides a powerful and flexible framework for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting,paving the way for intelligent transportation management and urban planning.展开更多
This paper focuses on the problem of traffic flow forecasting,with the aim of forecasting future traffic conditions based on historical traffic data.This problem is typically tackled by utilizing spatio-temporal graph...This paper focuses on the problem of traffic flow forecasting,with the aim of forecasting future traffic conditions based on historical traffic data.This problem is typically tackled by utilizing spatio-temporal graph neural networks to model the intricate spatio-temporal correlations among traffic data.Although these methods have achieved performance improvements,they often suffer from the following limitations:These methods face challenges in modeling high-order correlations between nodes.These methods overlook the interactions between nodes at different scales.To tackle these issues,in this paper,we propose a novel model named multi-scale dynamic hypergraph convolutional network(MSDHGCN)for traffic flow forecasting.Our MSDHGCN can effectively model the dynamic higher-order relationships between nodes at multiple time scales,thereby enhancing the capability for traffic forecasting.Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Traffic flow forecasting plays a crucial role and is the key technology to realize dynamic traffic guidance and active traffic control in intelligent traffic systems(ITS).Aiming at the complex local and global spatial...Traffic flow forecasting plays a crucial role and is the key technology to realize dynamic traffic guidance and active traffic control in intelligent traffic systems(ITS).Aiming at the complex local and global spatial-temporal dynamic characteristics of traffic flow,this paper proposes a new traffic flow forecasting model spatial-temporal attention graph neural network(STA-GNN)by combining at-tention mechanism(AM)and spatial-temporal convolutional network.The model learns the hidden dynamic local spatial correlations of the traffic network by combining the dynamic adjacency matrix constructed by the graph learning layer with the graph convolutional network(GCN).The local tem-poral correlations of traffic flow at different scales are extracted by stacking multiple convolutional kernels in temporal convolutional network(TCN).And the global spatial-temporal dependencies of long-time sequences of traffic flow are captured by the spatial-temporal attention mechanism(STAtt),which enhances the global spatial-temporal modeling and the representational ability of model.The experimental results on two datasets,METR-LA and PEMS-BAY,show the proposed STA-GNN model outperforms the common baseline models in forecasting accuracy.展开更多
Traffic flow forecasting constitutes a crucial component of intelligent transportation systems(ITSs).Numerous studies have been conducted for traffic flow forecasting during the past decades.However,most existing stud...Traffic flow forecasting constitutes a crucial component of intelligent transportation systems(ITSs).Numerous studies have been conducted for traffic flow forecasting during the past decades.However,most existing studies have concentrated on developing advanced algorithms or models to attain state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy.For real-world ITS applications,the interpretability of the developed models is extremely important but has largely been ignored.This study presents an interpretable traffic flow forecasting framework based on popular tree-ensemble algorithms.The framework comprises multiple key components integrated into a highly flexible and customizable multi-stage pipeline,enabling the seamless incorporation of various algorithms and tools.To evaluate the effectiveness of the framework,the developed tree-ensemble models and another three typical categories of baseline models,including statistical time series,shallow learning,and deep learning,were compared on three datasets collected from different types of roads(i.e.,arterial,expressway,and freeway).Further,the study delves into an in-depth interpretability analysis of the most competitive tree-ensemble models using six categories of interpretable machine learning methods.Experimental results highlight the potential of the proposed framework.The tree-ensemble models developed within this framework achieve competitive accuracy while maintaining high inference efficiency similar to statistical time series and shallow learning models.Meanwhile,these tree-ensemble models offer interpretability from multiple perspectives via interpretable machine-learning techniques.The proposed framework is anticipated to provide reliable and trustworthy decision support across various ITS applications.展开更多
This paper explores the development of interpretable data elements from raw data using Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks(KAN).With the exponential growth of data in contemporary society,there is an urgent need for effective ...This paper explores the development of interpretable data elements from raw data using Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks(KAN).With the exponential growth of data in contemporary society,there is an urgent need for effective data processing methods to unlock the full potential of this resource.The study focuses on the application of KAN in the transportation sector to transform raw traffic data into meaningful data elements.The core of the research is the KANT-GCN model,which synergizes Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks with Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks(T-GCN).This innovative model demonstrates superior performance in predicting traffic speeds,outperforming existing methods in terms of accuracy,reliability,and interpretability.The model was evaluated using real-world datasets from Shenzhen,Los Angeles,and the San Francisco Bay Area,showing significant improvements in different metrics.The paper highlights the potential of KAN-T-GCN to revolutionize data-driven decision-making in traffic management and other sectors,underscoring its ability to handle dynamic updates and maintain data integrity.展开更多
Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation system.In some traffic control scenarios,obtaining future traffic flow in advance is conducive to highway management department t...Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation system.In some traffic control scenarios,obtaining future traffic flow in advance is conducive to highway management department to have sufficient time to formulate corresponding traffic flow control measures.In hence,it is meaningful to establish an accurate short-term traffic flow method and provide reference for peak traffic flow warning.This paper proposed a new hybrid model for traffic flow forecasting,which is composed of the variational mode decomposition(VMD)method,the group method of data handling(GMDH)neural network,bi-directional long and short term memory(BILSTM)network and ELMAN network,and is optimized by the imperialist competitive algorithm(ICA)method.To illustrate the performance of the proposed model,there are several comparative experiments between the proposed model and other models.The experiment results show that 1)BILSTM network,GMDH network and ELMAN network have better predictive performance than other single models;2)VMD can significantly improve the predictive performance of the ICA-GMDH-BILSTM-ELMAN model.The effect of VMD method is better than that of EEMD method and FEEMD method.To conclude,the proposed model which is made up of the VMD method,the ICA method,the BILSTM network,the GMDH network and the ELMAN network has excellent predictive ability for traffic flow series.展开更多
The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic ...The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic flow forecasting; however, BPNN is easy to fall into local optimum and slow convergence. In order to overcome these deficiencies, a new approach called social emotion optimization algorithm(SEOA) is proposed in this paper to optimize the linked weights and thresholds of BPNN. Each individual in SEOA represents a BPNN. The availability of the proposed forecasting models is proved with the actual traffic flow data of the 2 nd Ring Road of Beijing. Experiment of results show that the forecasting accuracy of SEOA is improved obviously as compared with the accuracy of particle swarm optimization back-propagation(PSOBP) and simulated annealing particle swarm optimization back-propagation(SAPSOBP) models. Furthermore, since SEOA does not respond to the negative feedback information, Metropolis rule is proposed to give consideration to both positive and negative feedback information and diversify the adjustment methods. The modified BPNN model, in comparison with social emotion optimization back-propagation(SEOBP) model, is more advantageous to search the global optimal solution. The accuracy of Metropolis rule social emotion optimization back-propagation(MRSEOBP) model is improved about 19.54% as compared with that of SEOBP model in predicting the dramatically changing data.展开更多
With the rapid growth of satellite traffic, the ability to forecast traffic loads becomes vital for improving data transmission efficiency and resource management in satellite networks. To precisely forecast the short...With the rapid growth of satellite traffic, the ability to forecast traffic loads becomes vital for improving data transmission efficiency and resource management in satellite networks. To precisely forecast the short-term traffic loads in satellite networks, a forecasting algorithm based on principal component analysis and a generalized regression neural network （PCA-GRNN） is proposed. The PCA-GRNN algorithm exploits the hidden regularity of satellite networks and fully considers both the temporal and spatial correlations of satellite traffic. Specifically, it selects optimal time series of spatio-temporally correlated historical traffic from satellites as forecasting inputs and applies principal component analysis to reduce the input dimensions while preserving the main features of the data. Then, a generalized regression neural network is utilized to perform the final short-term load forecasting based on the obtained principal components. The PCA-GRNN algorithm is evaluated based on real-world traffic traces, and the results show that the PCA-GRNN method achieves a higher forecasting accuracy, has a shorter training time and is more robust than other state-of-the-art algorithms, even for incomplete traffic datasets. Therefore, the PCA- GRNN algorithm can be regarded as a preferred solution for use in real-time traffic forecasting for realistic satellite networks.展开更多
This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of c...This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.展开更多
Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting...Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on a three-layer K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression algorithm is proposed. Specifically, two screening layers based on shape similarity were introduced in K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and the forecasting results were output using the weighted averaging on the reciprocal values of the shape similarity distances and the most-similar-point distance adjustment method. According to the experimental results, the proposed algorithm has improved the predictive ability of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and greatly enhanced the accuracy and real-time performance of short-term traffic flow forecasting.展开更多
Considering that the prediction accuracy of the traditional traffic flow forecasting model is low,based on kernel adaptive filter(KAF)algorithm,kernel least mean square(KLMS)algorithm and fixed-budget kernel recursive...Considering that the prediction accuracy of the traditional traffic flow forecasting model is low,based on kernel adaptive filter(KAF)algorithm,kernel least mean square(KLMS)algorithm and fixed-budget kernel recursive least-square(FB-KRLS)algorithm are presented for online adaptive prediction.The computational complexity of the KLMS algorithm is low and does not require additional solution paradigm constraints,but its regularization process can solve the problem of regularization performance degradation in high-dimensional data processing.To reduce the computational complexity,the sparse criterion is introduced into the KLMS algorithm.To further improve forecasting accuracy,FB-KRLS algorithm is proposed.It is an online learning method with fixed memory budget,and it is capable of recursively learning a nonlinear mapping and changing over time.In contrast to a previous approximate linear dependence(ALD)based technique,the purpose of the presented algorithm is not to prune the oldest data point in every time instant but it aims to prune the least significant data point,thus suppressing the growth of kernel matrix.In order to verify the validity of the proposed methods,they are applied to one-step and multi-step predictions of traffic flow in Beijing.Under the same conditions,they are compared with online adaptive ALD-KRLS method and other kernel learning methods.Experimental results show that the proposed KAF algorithms can improve the prediction accuracy,and its online learning ability meets the actual requirements of traffic flow and contributes to real-time online forecasting of traffic flow.展开更多
Transport system is a time-varying, huge and complex system. In order to have the traffic management department make pre-appropriate traffic management measures to adjust the traffic management control program, and re...Transport system is a time-varying, huge and complex system. In order to have the traffic management department make pre-appropriate traffic management measures to adjust the traffic management control program, and release travel information to travelers, to provide optimal path options to ensure that the transport system operates efficiently and safely, we have to monitor the changing of the state of road traffic and to accurately evaluate the state of the traffic, then to predict the future state of traffic. This paper represents the construction of the road traffic flow simulation including the logical structure and the physical structure, and introduces the system functions of forecasting system in Beijing.展开更多
Time series data plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems.Traffic flow forecasting represents a precise estimation of future traffic flow within a specific region and time interval.Existing approache...Time series data plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems.Traffic flow forecasting represents a precise estimation of future traffic flow within a specific region and time interval.Existing approaches,including sequence periodic,regression,and deep learning models,have shown promising results in short-term series forecasting.However,forecasting scenarios specifically focused on holiday traffic flow present unique challenges,such as distinct traffic patterns during vacations and the increased demand for long-term forecastings.Consequently,the effectiveness of existing methods diminishes in such scenarios.Therefore,we propose a novel longterm forecasting model based on scene matching and embedding fusion representation to forecast long-term holiday traffic flow.Our model comprises three components:the similar scene matching module,responsible for extracting Similar Scene Features;the long-short term representation fusion module,which integrates scenario embeddings;and a simple fully connected layer at the head for making the final forecasting.Experimental results on real datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms other methods,particularly in medium and long-term forecasting scenarios.展开更多
Aiming at the real-time fluctuation and nonlinear characteristics of the expressway short-term traffic flow forecasting the parameter projection pursuit regression PPPR model is applied to forecast the expressway traf...Aiming at the real-time fluctuation and nonlinear characteristics of the expressway short-term traffic flow forecasting the parameter projection pursuit regression PPPR model is applied to forecast the expressway traffic flow where the orthogonal Hermite polynomial is used to fit the ridge functions and the least square method is employed to determine the polynomial weight coefficient c.In order to efficiently optimize the projection direction a and the number M of ridge functions of the PPPR model the chaos cloud particle swarm optimization CCPSO algorithm is applied to optimize the parameters. The CCPSO-PPPR hybrid optimization model for expressway short-term traffic flow forecasting is established in which the CCPSO algorithm is used to optimize the optimal projection direction a in the inner layer while the number M of ridge functions is optimized in the outer layer.Traffic volume weather factors and travel date of the previous several time intervals of the road section are taken as the input influencing factors. Example forecasting and model comparison results indicate that the proposed model can obtain a better forecasting effect and its absolute error is controlled within [-6,6] which can meet the application requirements of expressway traffic flow forecasting.展开更多
States of traffic situations can be classified into peak and nonpeak periods. The complexity of peak traffic brings more difficulty to forecasting models. Travel time index （TTI） is a fundamental measure in transpor...States of traffic situations can be classified into peak and nonpeak periods. The complexity of peak traffic brings more difficulty to forecasting models. Travel time index （TTI） is a fundamental measure in transportation. How to master the characteristics and provide accurate real-time forecasts is essential to intelligent transportation systems （ITS）. Cooperating with state space approach, least squares support vector machines （LS- SVMs） are investigated to solve such a practical problem in this paper. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time to apply the technique and analyze the forecast performance in the domain. For comparison purpose, other two nonparametric predictors are selected because of their effectiveness proved in past research. Having good generalization ability and guaranteeing global minima, LS-SVMs perform better than the others. Providing sufficient improvement in stability and robustness reveals that the approach is practically promising.展开更多
As a fundamental component of intelligent transportation systems, existing urban traffic flow forecasting models tend to overlook the spatio-temporal and long-term time-dependent patterns that characterize transportat...As a fundamental component of intelligent transportation systems, existing urban traffic flow forecasting models tend to overlook the spatio-temporal and long-term time-dependent patterns that characterize transportation networks. Among these, the long sequence time-series forecasting(LSTF) model is susceptible to the issue of gradient disappearance, which can be attributed to the influence of a multitude of intricate factors. Accordingly, in this paper, the standpoint of multi-feature fusion was studied, and a traffic flow forecasting network model based on feature fusion and spatio-temporal transformer(S-T transformer)(STFFN) was proposed. The model combined predictive recurrent neural network(Pred RNN) and S-T transformer to dynamically capture the spatio-temporal dependence and long-term time-dependence of traffic flow, thereby achieving a certain degree of model interpretability. A novel gated residual network-2(GRN-2) was proposed to investigate the potential relationship between multivariate features and target values. Furthermore, a hybrid quantile loss function was devised to alleviate the gradient disappearance in LSTF problems effectively. In extensive real experiments, the rationality and effectiveness of each network of the model were demonstrated, and the superior forecasting performance was verified in comparison to existing benchmark models.展开更多
As an important role in the development of ITS, traffic assignment forecast is always the research focus. Based on the analysis of classic traffic assignment forecast models, an improved traffic assignment forecast mo...As an important role in the development of ITS, traffic assignment forecast is always the research focus. Based on the analysis of classic traffic assignment forecast models, an improved traffic assignment forecast model, multi-ways probability and capacity constraint (MPCC) is presented. Using the new traffic as- signment forecast model to forecast the traffic volume will improve the rationality and veracity of traffic as- signment forecast.展开更多
基金supported by the project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61772562)the Knowledge Innovation Program of Wuhan-Basic Research(No.2022010801010225)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2662022YJ012)。
文摘With the rapid development of the 5G communications,the edge intelligence enables Internet of Vehicles(IoV)to provide traffic forecasting to alleviate traffic congestion and improve quality of experience of users simultaneously.To enhance the forecasting performance,a novel edge-enabled probabilistic graph structure learning model(PGSLM)is proposed,which learns the graph structure and parameters by the edge sensing information and discrete probability distribution on the edges of the traffic road network.To obtain the spatio-temporal dependencies of traffic data,the learned dynamic graphs are combined with a predefined static graph to generate the graph convolution part of the recurrent graph convolution module.During the training process,a new graph training loss is introduced,which is composed of the K nearest neighbor(KNN)graph constructed by the traffic feature tensors and the graph structure.Detailed experimental results show that,compared with existing models,the proposed PGSLM improves the traffic prediction performance in terms of average absolute error and root mean square error in IoV.
基金the National Science and Technology Supporting Program during the 11th Five-year Plan Period of China(No.2006BAJ18B02)
文摘Traffic forecasting provides the estimation of future traffic state to help traffic control,travel guide,etc. This paper compared several widely used traffic forecasting methods,and analyzed each one's performance in detail to make conclusions,which could redound to researchers choosing an appropriate traffic forecasting method in their own works. Compared with conventional works,this paper creatively assessed the performance of traffic forecasting methods based on travel time index (TTI) data prediction,which made the accuracy of our comparison better.
文摘The local multiple regression fuzzy(LMRF)model based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logical system and its application in traffic forecasting is proposed. Besides its prediction accuracy is testified and the model is proved much better than conventional forecasting methods. According to the regional traffic system, the model perfectly states the complex non-linear relation of the traffic and the local social economy. The model also efficiently deals with the system lack of enough data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62202247 and 62306073)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022ZD0115303).
文摘With the advent of deep learning,various deep neural network architectures have been proposed to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies in traffic data.This paper introduces a novel Deep Bi-directional Adaptive Gating Graph Convolutional Network(DBAG-GCN)model for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting.The proposed model leverages the power of graph convolutional networks to capture the spatial dependencies in the road network topology and incorporates bi-directional gating mechanisms to control the information flow adaptively.Furthermore,we introduce a multi-scale temporal convolution module to capture multi-scale temporal dynamics and a contextual attention mechanism to integrate external factors such as weather conditions and event information.Extensive experiments on real-world traffic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of DBAG-GCN compared to state-of-the-art baselines,achieving significant improvements in prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.The DBAG-GCN model provides a powerful and flexible framework for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting,paving the way for intelligent transportation management and urban planning.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021ZD0112400)。
文摘This paper focuses on the problem of traffic flow forecasting,with the aim of forecasting future traffic conditions based on historical traffic data.This problem is typically tackled by utilizing spatio-temporal graph neural networks to model the intricate spatio-temporal correlations among traffic data.Although these methods have achieved performance improvements,they often suffer from the following limitations:These methods face challenges in modeling high-order correlations between nodes.These methods overlook the interactions between nodes at different scales.To tackle these issues,in this paper,we propose a novel model named multi-scale dynamic hypergraph convolutional network(MSDHGCN)for traffic flow forecasting.Our MSDHGCN can effectively model the dynamic higher-order relationships between nodes at multiple time scales,thereby enhancing the capability for traffic forecasting.Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金Supported by the Key R&D Program of Gansu Province(No.23YFGA0063)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62363022,61663021)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(No.22JR5RA226,23JRRA886)the Gansu Provincial De-partment of Education:Industrial Support Plan Project(No.2023CYZC-35).
文摘Traffic flow forecasting plays a crucial role and is the key technology to realize dynamic traffic guidance and active traffic control in intelligent traffic systems(ITS).Aiming at the complex local and global spatial-temporal dynamic characteristics of traffic flow,this paper proposes a new traffic flow forecasting model spatial-temporal attention graph neural network(STA-GNN)by combining at-tention mechanism(AM)and spatial-temporal convolutional network.The model learns the hidden dynamic local spatial correlations of the traffic network by combining the dynamic adjacency matrix constructed by the graph learning layer with the graph convolutional network(GCN).The local tem-poral correlations of traffic flow at different scales are extracted by stacking multiple convolutional kernels in temporal convolutional network(TCN).And the global spatial-temporal dependencies of long-time sequences of traffic flow are captured by the spatial-temporal attention mechanism(STAtt),which enhances the global spatial-temporal modeling and the representational ability of model.The experimental results on two datasets,METR-LA and PEMS-BAY,show the proposed STA-GNN model outperforms the common baseline models in forecasting accuracy.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2023YFE0106800)the Humanity and Social Science Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(Grant No.22YJC630109).
文摘Traffic flow forecasting constitutes a crucial component of intelligent transportation systems(ITSs).Numerous studies have been conducted for traffic flow forecasting during the past decades.However,most existing studies have concentrated on developing advanced algorithms or models to attain state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy.For real-world ITS applications,the interpretability of the developed models is extremely important but has largely been ignored.This study presents an interpretable traffic flow forecasting framework based on popular tree-ensemble algorithms.The framework comprises multiple key components integrated into a highly flexible and customizable multi-stage pipeline,enabling the seamless incorporation of various algorithms and tools.To evaluate the effectiveness of the framework,the developed tree-ensemble models and another three typical categories of baseline models,including statistical time series,shallow learning,and deep learning,were compared on three datasets collected from different types of roads(i.e.,arterial,expressway,and freeway).Further,the study delves into an in-depth interpretability analysis of the most competitive tree-ensemble models using six categories of interpretable machine learning methods.Experimental results highlight the potential of the proposed framework.The tree-ensemble models developed within this framework achieve competitive accuracy while maintaining high inference efficiency similar to statistical time series and shallow learning models.Meanwhile,these tree-ensemble models offer interpretability from multiple perspectives via interpretable machine-learning techniques.The proposed framework is anticipated to provide reliable and trustworthy decision support across various ITS applications.
基金supported by the EU H2020 Research and Innovation Program under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant Agreement(Project-DEEP,Grant No.101109045)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.NSFC 61925105 and 62171257)the Tsinghua University-China Mobile Communications Group Co.,Ltd.Joint Institute,and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.FRF-NP-20-03).
文摘This paper explores the development of interpretable data elements from raw data using Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks(KAN).With the exponential growth of data in contemporary society,there is an urgent need for effective data processing methods to unlock the full potential of this resource.The study focuses on the application of KAN in the transportation sector to transform raw traffic data into meaningful data elements.The core of the research is the KANT-GCN model,which synergizes Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks with Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks(T-GCN).This innovative model demonstrates superior performance in predicting traffic speeds,outperforming existing methods in terms of accuracy,reliability,and interpretability.The model was evaluated using real-world datasets from Shenzhen,Los Angeles,and the San Francisco Bay Area,showing significant improvements in different metrics.The paper highlights the potential of KAN-T-GCN to revolutionize data-driven decision-making in traffic management and other sectors,underscoring its ability to handle dynamic updates and maintain data integrity.
基金Project(61873283)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(KQ1707017)supported by the Changsha Science&Technology Project,ChinaProject(2019CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Project of the Central South University,China。
文摘Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a significant part of intelligent transportation system.In some traffic control scenarios,obtaining future traffic flow in advance is conducive to highway management department to have sufficient time to formulate corresponding traffic flow control measures.In hence,it is meaningful to establish an accurate short-term traffic flow method and provide reference for peak traffic flow warning.This paper proposed a new hybrid model for traffic flow forecasting,which is composed of the variational mode decomposition(VMD)method,the group method of data handling(GMDH)neural network,bi-directional long and short term memory(BILSTM)network and ELMAN network,and is optimized by the imperialist competitive algorithm(ICA)method.To illustrate the performance of the proposed model,there are several comparative experiments between the proposed model and other models.The experiment results show that 1)BILSTM network,GMDH network and ELMAN network have better predictive performance than other single models;2)VMD can significantly improve the predictive performance of the ICA-GMDH-BILSTM-ELMAN model.The effect of VMD method is better than that of EEMD method and FEEMD method.To conclude,the proposed model which is made up of the VMD method,the ICA method,the BILSTM network,the GMDH network and the ELMAN network has excellent predictive ability for traffic flow series.
基金the Research of New Intelligent Integrated Transport Information System,Technical Plan Project of Binhai New District,Tianjin(No.2015XJR21017)
文摘The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic flow forecasting; however, BPNN is easy to fall into local optimum and slow convergence. In order to overcome these deficiencies, a new approach called social emotion optimization algorithm(SEOA) is proposed in this paper to optimize the linked weights and thresholds of BPNN. Each individual in SEOA represents a BPNN. The availability of the proposed forecasting models is proved with the actual traffic flow data of the 2 nd Ring Road of Beijing. Experiment of results show that the forecasting accuracy of SEOA is improved obviously as compared with the accuracy of particle swarm optimization back-propagation(PSOBP) and simulated annealing particle swarm optimization back-propagation(SAPSOBP) models. Furthermore, since SEOA does not respond to the negative feedback information, Metropolis rule is proposed to give consideration to both positive and negative feedback information and diversify the adjustment methods. The modified BPNN model, in comparison with social emotion optimization back-propagation(SEOBP) model, is more advantageous to search the global optimal solution. The accuracy of Metropolis rule social emotion optimization back-propagation(MRSEOBP) model is improved about 19.54% as compared with that of SEOBP model in predicting the dramatically changing data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Fundation for Distinguished Young Scholars ( 61425012 )the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China ( 2014PTB-00-02)
文摘With the rapid growth of satellite traffic, the ability to forecast traffic loads becomes vital for improving data transmission efficiency and resource management in satellite networks. To precisely forecast the short-term traffic loads in satellite networks, a forecasting algorithm based on principal component analysis and a generalized regression neural network （PCA-GRNN） is proposed. The PCA-GRNN algorithm exploits the hidden regularity of satellite networks and fully considers both the temporal and spatial correlations of satellite traffic. Specifically, it selects optimal time series of spatio-temporally correlated historical traffic from satellites as forecasting inputs and applies principal component analysis to reduce the input dimensions while preserving the main features of the data. Then, a generalized regression neural network is utilized to perform the final short-term load forecasting based on the obtained principal components. The PCA-GRNN algorithm is evaluated based on real-world traffic traces, and the results show that the PCA-GRNN method achieves a higher forecasting accuracy, has a shorter training time and is more robust than other state-of-the-art algorithms, even for incomplete traffic datasets. Therefore, the PCA- GRNN algorithm can be regarded as a preferred solution for use in real-time traffic forecasting for realistic satellite networks.
文摘This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.
文摘Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on a three-layer K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression algorithm is proposed. Specifically, two screening layers based on shape similarity were introduced in K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and the forecasting results were output using the weighted averaging on the reciprocal values of the shape similarity distances and the most-similar-point distance adjustment method. According to the experimental results, the proposed algorithm has improved the predictive ability of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and greatly enhanced the accuracy and real-time performance of short-term traffic flow forecasting.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51467008)
文摘Considering that the prediction accuracy of the traditional traffic flow forecasting model is low,based on kernel adaptive filter(KAF)algorithm,kernel least mean square(KLMS)algorithm and fixed-budget kernel recursive least-square(FB-KRLS)algorithm are presented for online adaptive prediction.The computational complexity of the KLMS algorithm is low and does not require additional solution paradigm constraints,but its regularization process can solve the problem of regularization performance degradation in high-dimensional data processing.To reduce the computational complexity,the sparse criterion is introduced into the KLMS algorithm.To further improve forecasting accuracy,FB-KRLS algorithm is proposed.It is an online learning method with fixed memory budget,and it is capable of recursively learning a nonlinear mapping and changing over time.In contrast to a previous approximate linear dependence(ALD)based technique,the purpose of the presented algorithm is not to prune the oldest data point in every time instant but it aims to prune the least significant data point,thus suppressing the growth of kernel matrix.In order to verify the validity of the proposed methods,they are applied to one-step and multi-step predictions of traffic flow in Beijing.Under the same conditions,they are compared with online adaptive ALD-KRLS method and other kernel learning methods.Experimental results show that the proposed KAF algorithms can improve the prediction accuracy,and its online learning ability meets the actual requirements of traffic flow and contributes to real-time online forecasting of traffic flow.
基金Key Projects in Science & Technology Pillar Program in 2007 in Beijing (No.D07020601400705)
文摘Transport system is a time-varying, huge and complex system. In order to have the traffic management department make pre-appropriate traffic management measures to adjust the traffic management control program, and release travel information to travelers, to provide optimal path options to ensure that the transport system operates efficiently and safely, we have to monitor the changing of the state of road traffic and to accurately evaluate the state of the traffic, then to predict the future state of traffic. This paper represents the construction of the road traffic flow simulation including the logical structure and the physical structure, and introduces the system functions of forecasting system in Beijing.
基金funded by the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China under Grant (No.LY21F020003)Zhejiang Science and Technology Plan Project (No.2021C02060)the Scientific Research Foundation of Hangzhou City University (No.X-202206).
文摘Time series data plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems.Traffic flow forecasting represents a precise estimation of future traffic flow within a specific region and time interval.Existing approaches,including sequence periodic,regression,and deep learning models,have shown promising results in short-term series forecasting.However,forecasting scenarios specifically focused on holiday traffic flow present unique challenges,such as distinct traffic patterns during vacations and the increased demand for long-term forecastings.Consequently,the effectiveness of existing methods diminishes in such scenarios.Therefore,we propose a novel longterm forecasting model based on scene matching and embedding fusion representation to forecast long-term holiday traffic flow.Our model comprises three components:the similar scene matching module,responsible for extracting Similar Scene Features;the long-short term representation fusion module,which integrates scenario embeddings;and a simple fully connected layer at the head for making the final forecasting.Experimental results on real datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms other methods,particularly in medium and long-term forecasting scenarios.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71101014,50679008)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(No.200801411105)the Science and Technology Project of the Department of Communications of Henan Province(No.2010D107-4)
文摘Aiming at the real-time fluctuation and nonlinear characteristics of the expressway short-term traffic flow forecasting the parameter projection pursuit regression PPPR model is applied to forecast the expressway traffic flow where the orthogonal Hermite polynomial is used to fit the ridge functions and the least square method is employed to determine the polynomial weight coefficient c.In order to efficiently optimize the projection direction a and the number M of ridge functions of the PPPR model the chaos cloud particle swarm optimization CCPSO algorithm is applied to optimize the parameters. The CCPSO-PPPR hybrid optimization model for expressway short-term traffic flow forecasting is established in which the CCPSO algorithm is used to optimize the optimal projection direction a in the inner layer while the number M of ridge functions is optimized in the outer layer.Traffic volume weather factors and travel date of the previous several time intervals of the road section are taken as the input influencing factors. Example forecasting and model comparison results indicate that the proposed model can obtain a better forecasting effect and its absolute error is controlled within [-6,6] which can meet the application requirements of expressway traffic flow forecasting.
文摘States of traffic situations can be classified into peak and nonpeak periods. The complexity of peak traffic brings more difficulty to forecasting models. Travel time index （TTI） is a fundamental measure in transportation. How to master the characteristics and provide accurate real-time forecasts is essential to intelligent transportation systems （ITS）. Cooperating with state space approach, least squares support vector machines （LS- SVMs） are investigated to solve such a practical problem in this paper. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time to apply the technique and analyze the forecast performance in the domain. For comparison purpose, other two nonparametric predictors are selected because of their effectiveness proved in past research. Having good generalization ability and guaranteeing global minima, LS-SVMs perform better than the others. Providing sufficient improvement in stability and robustness reveals that the approach is practically promising.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (62162040)the Gansu Province Higher Education Innovation Fund-Funded Project (2021A-028)+1 种基金the Gansu Province Science and Technology Program Funding Project (21ZD4GA028)the Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Plan Funding Key Project of Natural Science Foundation of China (22JR5RA226)。
文摘As a fundamental component of intelligent transportation systems, existing urban traffic flow forecasting models tend to overlook the spatio-temporal and long-term time-dependent patterns that characterize transportation networks. Among these, the long sequence time-series forecasting(LSTF) model is susceptible to the issue of gradient disappearance, which can be attributed to the influence of a multitude of intricate factors. Accordingly, in this paper, the standpoint of multi-feature fusion was studied, and a traffic flow forecasting network model based on feature fusion and spatio-temporal transformer(S-T transformer)(STFFN) was proposed. The model combined predictive recurrent neural network(Pred RNN) and S-T transformer to dynamically capture the spatio-temporal dependence and long-term time-dependence of traffic flow, thereby achieving a certain degree of model interpretability. A novel gated residual network-2(GRN-2) was proposed to investigate the potential relationship between multivariate features and target values. Furthermore, a hybrid quantile loss function was devised to alleviate the gradient disappearance in LSTF problems effectively. In extensive real experiments, the rationality and effectiveness of each network of the model were demonstrated, and the superior forecasting performance was verified in comparison to existing benchmark models.
文摘As an important role in the development of ITS, traffic assignment forecast is always the research focus. Based on the analysis of classic traffic assignment forecast models, an improved traffic assignment forecast model, multi-ways probability and capacity constraint (MPCC) is presented. Using the new traffic as- signment forecast model to forecast the traffic volume will improve the rationality and veracity of traffic as- signment forecast.
