Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang's practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an extended trade gravity model fitting for Xinjiang's bilatera...Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang's practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an extended trade gravity model fitting for Xinjiang's bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it is proposed that those three variables affect the Xinjiang's bilateral trade posi- tively. Whereas, geographic distance is found to be a significant factor influencing Xinjiang’s bilateral trade negatively. Then, by the extended trade gravity model, this article analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners quantitatively in 2004. The results indicate that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successfully trade part- nership with Central Asia, Central Europe and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's for- eign trade are put forward.展开更多
This paper empirically studies the impact mechanism of the depth of digital trade rules on China’s digital service trade exports and explores the improvement paths for China accordingly.Based on the transaction cost ...This paper empirically studies the impact mechanism of the depth of digital trade rules on China’s digital service trade exports and explores the improvement paths for China accordingly.Based on the transaction cost theory and other foundations,this paper systematically classifies rule provisions into four categories:access and facilitation,cross-border data flow,digital intellectual property rights,and privacy protection and data security.It also uses the gravity model of trade to quantitatively analyze 22 Regional Trade Agreements texts involving China.The empirical results show that:the depth of digital trade rules as a whole significantly promotes digital service trade exports;the core driving factors include the gap in digital infrastructure,differences in higher education levels,urbanization levels,and GDP gaps;all four categories of provisions show a significant positive impact,among which access and facilitation provisions have the most prominent promotional effect.Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the depth of rules has a significantly stronger promotional effect on trade partners in developed countries than in developing countries;sector-specific tests show that the financial services sector benefits the most,while the intellectual property sector is inhibited.Based on this,this paper proposes that China should actively participate in the construction of global rules,improve digital infrastructure,deepen the implementation of provisions,orderly expand opening-up in the digital field,strengthen intellectual property protection to balance innovation incentives and market expansion,and improve laws and regulations to ensure data security.展开更多
This paper reviewed and analyzed the current situations and influencing factors of the bilateral agricultural product trade development in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA),which has important practical significance ...This paper reviewed and analyzed the current situations and influencing factors of the bilateral agricultural product trade development in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA),which has important practical significance for promoting the in-depth development of the free trade area and has guiding significance for precise policy implementation.Based on the status of import and export trade of agricultural products in CAFTA from 2013 to 2017,it constructed a trade gravity model.With the aid of Stata 14.0 software,it explored major factors influencing the development of bilateral agricultural trade from the total amount of agricultural products import and export and Commodity Indexes for the Standard International Trade Classification,Revision 3(SITC Rev.3)agricultural product classification data.The empirical regression results show that the GDP of ASEAN countries,the ratio of agricultural added value to GDP,and the per capita gross national income(GNI)measured based on the purchasing power parity(PPP)exchange rate have the greatest impact on agricultural product trade in CAFTA in the context of"the Belt and Road"(B&D).Based on empirical research,it came up with recommendations including adjusting the import and export structure of agricultural products,enhancing product competitive advantages,and implementing diversified markets.展开更多
With today's economic globalization,inter-provincial trade plays an important role in a country's economy.This paper is the first to adopt the input-output tables of 30 Chinese provinces and to summarize the e...With today's economic globalization,inter-provincial trade plays an important role in a country's economy.This paper is the first to adopt the input-output tables of 30 Chinese provinces and to summarize the evolution of China's inter-provincial trade from1987 to 2007.This paper reaches the following conclusions.First,China's inter-provincial trade has sustained a period of rapid growth.In 2007,the total volume of inter-provincial trade was twice the amount of international trade,with the eastern region accounting for the majority of the inter-provincial trade volume.GDP may have a greater effect on interprovincial trade than geographic distance does.Second,inter-provincial trade maintains a high level of concentration and overlaps with the high concentration of GDP.Third,the inter-provincial trade dependence of Chinese provinces tends to increase,an indication of the growing domestic market integration.Moreover,the eastern region's dependence on inter-provincial trade is higher than the central and western regions'.Fourth,the share of inter-provincial trade in the overall external trade of Chinese provinces has a declining tendency,which indicates a slower process of China's domestic market integration compared with international market integration.However,in terms of proportion,the external trade of most Chinese provinces is still dominated by inter-provincial trade.Fifth,most provinces with longstanding inter-provincial trade deficits are in the central and western regions.展开更多
In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in the Jormer Silk Roaa regions are either reaching or failing to reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using a Poisson p...In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in the Jormer Silk Roaa regions are either reaching or failing to reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, and estimate trade potential using in-sample, out-of-sample and counterfactual approaches. We compare trade potential using these three methods for Silk Road country trades with China. Next, we compare the estimated trade potential to actual trade, and find that most Silk Road countries are underperforming in their trade with China. However, trade performance against potential improved for most countries over the years 1990-2013. Our results suggest that China＇s former Silk Road trading partners have yet to realize the full potential benefits of China＇s economic growth but that the gap may be narrowing.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCS-SW-355)
文摘Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang's practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an extended trade gravity model fitting for Xinjiang's bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it is proposed that those three variables affect the Xinjiang's bilateral trade posi- tively. Whereas, geographic distance is found to be a significant factor influencing Xinjiang’s bilateral trade negatively. Then, by the extended trade gravity model, this article analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners quantitatively in 2004. The results indicate that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successfully trade part- nership with Central Asia, Central Europe and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's for- eign trade are put forward.
文摘This paper empirically studies the impact mechanism of the depth of digital trade rules on China’s digital service trade exports and explores the improvement paths for China accordingly.Based on the transaction cost theory and other foundations,this paper systematically classifies rule provisions into four categories:access and facilitation,cross-border data flow,digital intellectual property rights,and privacy protection and data security.It also uses the gravity model of trade to quantitatively analyze 22 Regional Trade Agreements texts involving China.The empirical results show that:the depth of digital trade rules as a whole significantly promotes digital service trade exports;the core driving factors include the gap in digital infrastructure,differences in higher education levels,urbanization levels,and GDP gaps;all four categories of provisions show a significant positive impact,among which access and facilitation provisions have the most prominent promotional effect.Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the depth of rules has a significantly stronger promotional effect on trade partners in developed countries than in developing countries;sector-specific tests show that the financial services sector benefits the most,while the intellectual property sector is inhibited.Based on this,this paper proposes that China should actively participate in the construction of global rules,improve digital infrastructure,deepen the implementation of provisions,orderly expand opening-up in the digital field,strengthen intellectual property protection to balance innovation incentives and market expansion,and improve laws and regulations to ensure data security.
文摘This paper reviewed and analyzed the current situations and influencing factors of the bilateral agricultural product trade development in China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA),which has important practical significance for promoting the in-depth development of the free trade area and has guiding significance for precise policy implementation.Based on the status of import and export trade of agricultural products in CAFTA from 2013 to 2017,it constructed a trade gravity model.With the aid of Stata 14.0 software,it explored major factors influencing the development of bilateral agricultural trade from the total amount of agricultural products import and export and Commodity Indexes for the Standard International Trade Classification,Revision 3(SITC Rev.3)agricultural product classification data.The empirical regression results show that the GDP of ASEAN countries,the ratio of agricultural added value to GDP,and the per capita gross national income(GNI)measured based on the purchasing power parity(PPP)exchange rate have the greatest impact on agricultural product trade in CAFTA in the context of"the Belt and Road"(B&D).Based on empirical research,it came up with recommendations including adjusting the import and export structure of agricultural products,enhancing product competitive advantages,and implementing diversified markets.
基金National Social Science Foundation for the Youth Scholars of China:The Internal Origins of Chinese External Imbalances(Grant No.12 CJL055)Educational Development Foundation of Department of International Economic and Trade,Xiamen University:Research on the Effect of Outsourcing on China's Economy(Grant No.201112111)Humanities and Social Science Project for the Youth Scholars of the Ministry of Education:Research on China's Current Account Adjustment Mode Under the Public Finance(Grant No.11YJC790281)
文摘With today's economic globalization,inter-provincial trade plays an important role in a country's economy.This paper is the first to adopt the input-output tables of 30 Chinese provinces and to summarize the evolution of China's inter-provincial trade from1987 to 2007.This paper reaches the following conclusions.First,China's inter-provincial trade has sustained a period of rapid growth.In 2007,the total volume of inter-provincial trade was twice the amount of international trade,with the eastern region accounting for the majority of the inter-provincial trade volume.GDP may have a greater effect on interprovincial trade than geographic distance does.Second,inter-provincial trade maintains a high level of concentration and overlaps with the high concentration of GDP.Third,the inter-provincial trade dependence of Chinese provinces tends to increase,an indication of the growing domestic market integration.Moreover,the eastern region's dependence on inter-provincial trade is higher than the central and western regions'.Fourth,the share of inter-provincial trade in the overall external trade of Chinese provinces has a declining tendency,which indicates a slower process of China's domestic market integration compared with international market integration.However,in terms of proportion,the external trade of most Chinese provinces is still dominated by inter-provincial trade.Fifth,most provinces with longstanding inter-provincial trade deficits are in the central and western regions.
文摘In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in the Jormer Silk Roaa regions are either reaching or failing to reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, and estimate trade potential using in-sample, out-of-sample and counterfactual approaches. We compare trade potential using these three methods for Silk Road country trades with China. Next, we compare the estimated trade potential to actual trade, and find that most Silk Road countries are underperforming in their trade with China. However, trade performance against potential improved for most countries over the years 1990-2013. Our results suggest that China＇s former Silk Road trading partners have yet to realize the full potential benefits of China＇s economic growth but that the gap may be narrowing.
