In recent years,torrential rain events caused by extratropical cyclones(ETCs)during the boreal midsummer(July-August)in Central and Eastern China have shown an increasing trend.For instence,in August 2024,two ETCs bro...In recent years,torrential rain events caused by extratropical cyclones(ETCs)during the boreal midsummer(July-August)in Central and Eastern China have shown an increasing trend.For instence,in August 2024,two ETCs brought large-scale heavy rainfall to North China,with daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm.Using reanalysis datasets and gridded precipitation data,the ETCs that affected Central and Eastern China during the boreal midsummer from 1981 to 2020 were objectively identified and tracked.ETCs causing precipitation were classified based on maximum daily precipitation,resulting in datasets for ETCs with torrential rain(daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm,referred to as ETC_R100)and heavy rain(daily precipitation exceeding 25 mm,referred to as ETC_R25).Comparative analysis can help highlight the characteristics of ETC_R100.This study compares the spatial distribution,movement paths,weather impacts,large-scale atmospheric circulation,and environmental conditions of these two types of precipitation-related ETCs.The following findings emerged:(1)ETC_R100 is driven by the combined forcing of upper-level troughs and warm-moist airflows at lower levels,exhibiting stronger thermal forcing than ETC_R25.(2)The moisture source for ETC_R100 are the Bay of Bengal and the Northwest Pacific,with moisture transported via the South China Sea.Compared to ETCs with nonextreme rainfall,ETC_R100 is characterized by greater atmospheric instability and better moisture conditions,resulting in higher precipitation intensity.(3)Regardless of the precipitation level,ETCs affected different regions but contributed significantly to precipitation in northern China,accounting for approximately 50%of the total precipitation.The results indicate that ETC_R100 differs significantly from ETCs with varying levels of precipitation in terms of statistical characteristics,weather impact,environmental conditions,and cyclogenesis conditions.展开更多
The impacts of cloud-induced mass forcing on the development of the moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomaly associated with torrential rains are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR 1? × 1? data. The MPV ten...The impacts of cloud-induced mass forcing on the development of the moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomaly associated with torrential rains are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR 1? × 1? data. The MPV tendency equation with the cloud-induced mass forcing is derived, and applied to the torrential rain event over the Changjiang River-Huaihe River Valleys during 26–30 June 1999. The result shows that positive anomalies are located mainly between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, while the maximum MPV, maximum positive tendency of the MPV, and maximum surface rainfall are nearly collocated. The cloud-induced mass forcing contributes to the positive tendency of the moist potential vorticity anomaly. The results indicate that the MPV may be used to track the propagation of rain systems for operational applications.展开更多
Day-to-day precipitation data of Juries during the 43 years of 1958-2000 from stations to the south of Yangtze River are used to divide regions and run statistical analysis of sustained torrential rainfall processes. ...Day-to-day precipitation data of Juries during the 43 years of 1958-2000 from stations to the south of Yangtze River are used to divide regions and run statistical analysis of sustained torrential rainfall processes. A preliminary analysis is then made based on it and the results show that June is the month in which torrential rains in the southern half of China take place frequently and sustained torrential rains occur at the same time in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. In addition, the analysis gives the basic features of sustained torrential rains of June in China and their interannual variability patterns, with the suggestion that the amount of these events increases significantly after the 1990s. Lastly, the sustained torrential rains occurring in Junes of 1994, 1998 and 2005 in the southern half of China are taken as examples in the research on the basic patterns and formation mechanisms of the evolution of double rain-bands during the rain season in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. The analysis shows that the large scale environment field in which sustained torrential rains occur is related to the stable sustaining of the South Asia High and upper level jet streams.展开更多
NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data were used to analyze the characteristics and evolution mechanism of convective and symmetric instability before and during a heavy rainfall event that occurred in Beijing on 21 July 2012.Appr...NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data were used to analyze the characteristics and evolution mechanism of convective and symmetric instability before and during a heavy rainfall event that occurred in Beijing on 21 July 2012.Approximately twelve hours before the rainstorm,the atmosphere was mainly dominated by convective instability in the lower level of 900-800 hPa.The strong southwesterly low-level jet conveyed the moist and warm airflow continuously to the area of torrential rain,maintaining and enhancing the unstable energy.When the precipitation occurred,unstable energy was released and the convective instability weakened.Meanwhile,due to the baroclinicity enhancement in the atmosphere,the symmetric instability strengthened,maintaining and promoting the subsequent torrential rain.Deriving the convective instability tendency equation demonstrated that the barotropic component of potential divergence and the advection term played a major role in enhancing the convective instability before the rainstorm.Analysis of the tendency equation of moist potential vorticity showed that the coupled term of vertical vorticity and the baroclinic component of potential divergence was the primary factor influencing the development of symmetric instability during the precipitation.Comparing the effects of these factors on convective instability and symmetric instability showed some correlation.展开更多
This paper presents debris-flow numerical simulations using the Hyper KANAKO system,developed by the authors.The system uses the debris flow simulator KANAKO 2D equipped with a graphical user interface(GUI);hence,a us...This paper presents debris-flow numerical simulations using the Hyper KANAKO system,developed by the authors.The system uses the debris flow simulator KANAKO 2D equipped with a graphical user interface(GUI);hence,a user can easily produce appropriate landform data for simulations using standard laser profiler data,and visualize the results using a GIS.Hyper KANAKO was applied to the streams around Kiyomizu-dera in Kyoto,Japan.Kiyomizu-dera is a famous temple in Japan which is visited by numerous tourists throughout the year.We simulated a disaster scenario of debris flow caused by torrential rain.We set the hydrograph using rainfall intensity data,and set the landform data using information from the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan(GSI) and a digital elevation model(DEM).We evaluated different mesh sizes and also used a digital surface model(DSM) to consider the building heights.The simulation results showed that with small mesh size,the debris flowmoved through the roads,which seems realistic for a disaster situation.When buildings were considered,the flow direction changed,and a 1-m flow depth,which was deeper than in other cases,appeared in the flow path.This may pose a dangerous situation for evacuations.展开更多
1 INTRODUCTION Locating between the southern temperate climate zone and northern subtropical climate zone, the basin of Huaihe River witnesses frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters, especially from May to Au...1 INTRODUCTION Locating between the southern temperate climate zone and northern subtropical climate zone, the basin of Huaihe River witnesses frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters, especially from May to August when heavy rains usually result in floods. There has been much research at home and abroad on the estimation of rainfall based on radar data and satellite imagery . Experiments on heavy rains are mainly, however, based on Type 713 weather radar, which limits quantitative estimation of rainfall. With data from a Doppler weather radar on the S band （CINRAD/SA） co-manufactured by China and U.S.A. in 1999, this work makes quantitative estimation of rainfall over the Anhui region in the Huaihe River valley, supplemented with GMS satellite data, records from weather stations and automatic rain gauges. A localized model and set of indices have been set up to utilize the CINRAD/SA radar and GMS satellite, flood-causing heavy rains are pre-warned and forecast with interpretations of the NWP product HLAFS, and a software ofpre-warning operation is finalized to watch this kind of rain over the valley.展开更多
A good representation of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer(PBL)and the surface layer(SL)in numerical models is of great importance for the prediction of the initiation and development of convection....A good representation of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer(PBL)and the surface layer(SL)in numerical models is of great importance for the prediction of the initiation and development of convection.This study examined an ensemble that consists of the available suites of PBL and SL parameterizations based on a torrential rainfall event over south China.The sensitivity of the simulations was investigated against objective measurements using multiple PBL and SL parameterization schemes.The main causes of the bias from different parameterization schemes were further analysed by comparing the good and bad ensemble members.The results showed that good members tended to underestimate the rainfall amount but presented a decent evolution of mesoscale convective systems that were responsible for the torrential rainfall.Using the total energy mass flux(TEMF)scheme,the bad members overestimated the amount and spatial coverage of rainfall.The failure of the bad member was due to a spurious convection initiation(CI)resulting from the overestimated high-θe elevated air.The spurious CI developed and expanded rapidly,causing intensive and extensive rainfall over south China.Consistent with previous studies,the TEMF scheme tends to produce a warmer and moister PBL environment.The detailed sensitivity analysis of this case may provide reference for the operational forecast of rainfall over south China using multiple PBL and SL parameterizations.展开更多
The quasi 11-year cycle of sunspot activities and torrential rain days in Fuxin during 1951-2005 were studied.As was shown in the results,the relative number of sunspots and the torrential rain days in the sunspot cyc...The quasi 11-year cycle of sunspot activities and torrential rain days in Fuxin during 1951-2005 were studied.As was shown in the results,the relative number of sunspots and the torrential rain days in the sunspot cycle of trough value were significantly related with a correlation coefficient of 0.842.At the same time,the correlation coefficient between torrential rain days in Fuxin and the relative number of sunspots of certain year within the sunspot cycle of trough value reached 0.737.It was clear that the torrential rain days in Fuxin were closely related with solar activity.The conclusion would provide the favorable climate background and basis for the study of regularity of rainstorm outbreak,monitoring and forecasting of torrential rain and regularity of agricultural drought and flood.展开更多
An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(...An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.展开更多
In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future,a special diagnosis analysis was made on the process of the torrential ra...In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future,a special diagnosis analysis was made on the process of the torrential rain.The meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system（MICAPS） 3.1 was used to carry out the analysis of profile and sounding to the conventional meteorological data,and finally numerical weather prediction was tested,which got the reason of production and omission of torrential rain.The results showed that one of the important reason of the torrential rain was caused by the combined effects of the dry cold air brought by the middle latitude shortwave trough and the southwest warm wet airflow brought by the jet flow,and the terrain influence caused by the Yishan in southern Liju County and the water evaporation in Mihe River was also an important reason.The main reason for the omission of the rain was caused by the over dependent on the rainfall forecast of numerical products and neglected the evolution of small scale process as well as analysis of the physical quantity field.Therefore,it was very important to monitor the actual weather situation and analyze all kinds of physical quantities for forecasting torrential rain.Besides,the forecaster should improve their ability in revising the numerical weather prediction.展开更多
The present study aims to propose a method to search for the most appropriate evacuation routes that take calorie consumption required for evacuees to reach evacuation sites into consideration, by focusing on disaster...The present study aims to propose a method to search for the most appropriate evacuation routes that take calorie consumption required for evacuees to reach evacuation sites into consideration, by focusing on disasters caused by heavy rainfall, and using genetic algorithm (GA) and geographic information system (GIS). Specifically, GA was used to design and develop an evacuation route search algorithm and 4 parameters including the number of generations, mutation rate number of individuals and crossover rate were set by conducting sensitivity analyses. Additionally, GIS was also used to create road network data and contour data for digital maps and calculate the altitude of each crossover point. Based on these, the necessary calorie consumption to reach evacuation sites for each route was calculated, and that made it possible to derive the several evacuation routes with the small values unlike other methods. By using GA and GIS to suggest detailed evacuation routes, which take the necessary calories required to reach evacuation sites into consideration, it can be expected that the present study should contribute to the decision-making of evacuees. Additionally, as the method is based on public information, the method has high spatial and temporal repeatability. Because evacuation routes are proposed based on quantified data, the selected evacuation routes are quantitatively evaluated, and are an effective indicator for deciding on an evacuation route. Additionally, evacuation routes that accurately reflect current conditions can be derived by utilizing detailed information as data.展开更多
Based on the precipitation data and torrential rain disaster data in Zhangjiajie City of Hunan Province from 2016 to 2020,taking the claim cases of the property and cargo insurance(hereinafter referred to as"prop...Based on the precipitation data and torrential rain disaster data in Zhangjiajie City of Hunan Province from 2016 to 2020,taking the claim cases of the property and cargo insurance(hereinafter referred to as"property and cargo insurance")from Hunan Branch of the People’s Insurance Company of China as the research sample,the Dominance Analysis Method was used to determine the influence weights of disaster-causing factors to establish a comprehensive disaster-causing index(I)model of torrential rain.Second,an exponential function was used to fit the relationship between the number of town or street which filed claims of property and cargo insurance and I,then to determine the threshold of I corresponding to different accident levels.The claim cases caused by torrential rain disaster in Zhangjiajie in the flood season of 2021 were selected to verify the I and its threshold.The results showed that the number of property and cargo insurance accidents caused by torrential rain in Zhangjiajie was generally low in east and west but high in middle areas.Among the disaster-causing factors,the weight of the 96-h accumulated precipitation on the scope of accident was the largest,reaching 28.6%.The simulated grades of the scope of accident,the amount of claim and the number of accidents of property and cargo insurance had a high correlation with the grades of actual disasters,and all passed the test at the 0.01 significance level.The threshold test results showed that the consistency rate or accuracy between the predicted level and the actual level of torrential rain disaster-causing cases was 71.4%,in which the predicted values of accuracy for the mild,moderate and severe disaster levels were 70%,70%and 100%,respectively.Therefore,the threshold of I established in this study can be used for the industrial meteorological services related to the property and cargo insurance in Zhangjiajie.展开更多
[Objective]The research aimed to analyze a turning weather process in Binzhou City of Shandong Province in midsummer of 2010.[Method]Started from the short-term forecast ideas,the formation reason of heavy or torrenti...[Objective]The research aimed to analyze a turning weather process in Binzhou City of Shandong Province in midsummer of 2010.[Method]Started from the short-term forecast ideas,the formation reason of heavy or torrential rain and local heavy rainstorm in Binzhou City during 4-5 August,2010 was analyzed from the circulation situation,physical quantity field,radar echo and so on.[Result]The westerly trough and cold air were the trigger mechanisms of precipitation.The warm wet air flow at the edge of subtropical high and the high-altitude low trough were the main systems of precipitation.It was the typical precipitation process that the northwest of subtropical high overlapped with the westerly trough.In the prior period,the high temperature continued.The cold air at 500 hPa made the convection strengthen.It was the main reason that the local precipitation was strong.In the forecast of rainstorm,the specific humidity,K index and SI index were the good physical quantities and reference indexes.In the formation process of rainstorm,K index had the increasing process.When the rainstorm finished,or the rain intensity weakened,K index decreased obviously.SI index indicated the development of convective precipitation.The radar echo analysis found that the mesocyclone appeared in the process for a short time.For it weakened quickly and disappeared in the shift process,the strong precipitation and gale were formed in the west of Binzou,but the hail wasn’t generated.[Conclusion]The research provided the experience for the forecast of such weather in future.展开更多
It has been reported that the heaviest rain event since 1951 hit Beijing on 21 July 2012 （henceforth referred to as the 721 case）.The frequency and extreme attributes of the large-scale circulation patterns observed...It has been reported that the heaviest rain event since 1951 hit Beijing on 21 July 2012 （henceforth referred to as the 721 case）.The frequency and extreme attributes of the large-scale circulation patterns observed during the 721 case are explored by using obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis （PCA） and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR.The occurrence frequency of the 721-type circulation during the summers of 1951-2012 is 10.9%,while the frequency of torrential rain under this type of circulation is 4.51%.Relative to other rainstorms with similar large-scale circulations during the study period,the 721 case is characterized by a more westward extension of the subtropical high over the western North Pacific,a stronger low-level jet in the lower troposphere over the south of Beijing,a larger amount of ambient precipitable water,and a stronger vertical wind shear over Beijing.Among the 621 days with the 721-type circulation during the study period,the 721 case ranks the 54th in terms of the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing,the 209th in terms of the local vertical wind shear,and the 8th in terms of the local precipitable water.The 721 case is particularly extreme with respect to the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing and local precipitable water.Cases with similar circulations and equal or greater values of the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing and local precipitable water have occurred thrice during the summers of 1951-2012 （i.e.,once every 21 years）.展开更多
A shower cloud observed in Jiangxi,a hailstorm observed in Hebei and“75.8”torrential rain in Henan are simulated with our microphysical model in a one-dimensional framework.The model,using the radio- sonde data as i...A shower cloud observed in Jiangxi,a hailstorm observed in Hebei and“75.8”torrential rain in Henan are simulated with our microphysical model in a one-dimensional framework.The model,using the radio- sonde data as input,gets its output which shows agreement in many aspects as compared with observations in each case.The glaciation of small cumulus cloud,low precipitation efficiency of hailstorm and the per- sistence of torrential rain are demonstrated.It is also shown that the Bergeron process has little influence, but the warm-rain process plays an important role in the formation of precipitation in cumulonimbus with a warm cloud base.展开更多
Considering the non-uniform saturation of the real atmosphere,a diagnostic study of a torrential rain event is performed from the perspective of the anomaly of the generalized moist potential vorticity（GMPV） after i...Considering the non-uniform saturation of the real atmosphere,a diagnostic study of a torrential rain event is performed from the perspective of the anomaly of the generalized moist potential vorticity（GMPV） after introducing the generalized potential temperature into the thermodynamic frame of the real atmosphere. The results show that the anomaly appeared at mid-lower levels of the troposphere when the torrential rain happened.Analysis of the magnitudes and locations of maximum values of the tendency of the GMPV indicates that the anomaly of the GMPV was closely related to the occurrence of torrential rain. Therefore,the GMPV could be used to forecast and diagnose the occurrence of torrential rain in operational application.展开更多
In this paper the Morlet complex wavelet {unction was applied to analyze the evolution features of multi-scale wave-intensity during a torrential rain process.Separating the suhsynoptic scale system on temperature of ...In this paper the Morlet complex wavelet {unction was applied to analyze the evolution features of multi-scale wave-intensity during a torrential rain process.Separating the suhsynoptic scale system on temperature of black body (TBB) fields during a torrential rain process over the Middle and Lower Reaches of Changjiang River in the last dekad of July 1998,the evolution of multi-scale wave-intensity can be expressed by wavelet modules,and its coherence was investigated with the cross spectrum between the multi-scale waves.The results show that the process of the accumulation and release on the energy of meso-β scale system was shown in the torrential rain process,and the meso-α scale system had an interference effect on the meso-β system in a shorter period.展开更多
A torrential rain event accompanying Typhoon Prapiroon occurred in 2000, with 24-h rainfall amount reaching 800 mm near the typhoon center. This event is simulated by the nonhydrostatic mesoscaie model ARPS （V5.2）, ...A torrential rain event accompanying Typhoon Prapiroon occurred in 2000, with 24-h rainfall amount reaching 800 mm near the typhoon center. This event is simulated by the nonhydrostatic mesoscaie model ARPS （V5.2）, with thriple one-way nested-grids. Grid spacings of 45, 15, and 5 km are chosen for the three nested domains. The corresponding grid sizes are 75×75, 140× 140, and 180× 180, respectively. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, radar echoes, and CMS-5 satellite images are assimilated with the ARPS model initially using a 3-D data assimilation system-ADAS. The simple ice phase scheme and the Kain- Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme axe used. There are 35 layers in the vertical, with a vertical grid spacing of about 625 m. The integration is performed up to 48 h from 0800 BT 29 to 0800 BT 31 August 2000. Compared with radar echoes, GMS-5 satellite images, and intensive surface observations, the results show that the heavy rain area down between the 500-hPa trough and the subtropical high in the left-front of Prapiroon is well simulated by the model ARPS, and the simulated rainfall centers are consistent with observations. A comparison of the radar echoes with these retrieved from the simulated hydrometeors reveals that there are meso-β scale convective systems that exhibit distinctive characteristics, and there are four convective belts converging in the vicinity of Xiangshui, where the maximum rainfall is observed. A further comparision of skew T-lgp diagrams from simulated and observed data demonstrates significant instability in this torrential rain process. The persistent vertical wind shear provides kinetic energy for the development of the MCSs, hence promoting the baroclinic development of convective cells, and the concentration of heavy rain at the specific location. The consistency between model results and observations encourages a further study of the torrential rain event using the simulation data.展开更多
In this paper, the synoptic process of convective heavy rain in Pingxiang and heavy rain in some areas from July 9 to 10, 2020 is analyzed by using high-altitude weather maps, automatic regional station data, sounding...In this paper, the synoptic process of convective heavy rain in Pingxiang and heavy rain in some areas from July 9 to 10, 2020 is analyzed by using high-altitude weather maps, automatic regional station data, sounding data maps and satellite cloud pictures. The results show that (1) The high pressure in the upper atmosphere is maintained, the circulation situation of "two troughs and one ridge" in the middle and high latitudes is stable, the large trough in East Asia is stable and less moving, and the low trough in Lake Baikal is deepening southward to guide cold air southward;The subtropical high at low latitudes strengthened westward and remained stable with little movement. The warm and humid air flow at the northwest side provided continuous water vapor transportation for Pingxiang. The strong convergence of the southward dry and cold air and the southward warm and humid air, combined with the favorable conditions of convergence in the lower level and divergence in the upper level, constituted the basic circulation situation of the rainstorm. (2) The warm and humid air flow in the middle and low levels transports a large amount of unstable energy and abundant water vapor, and the convergence line on the ground triggers the release of unstable energy, which, in combination with the uplift of the shear system in the lower level, results in obvious convective precipitation in Pingxiang. (3) Convective monomer is continuously generated and developed near the shear line, and moves and merges along the system direction. The region matching degree between the highlight area and the short-term strong precipitation on the cloud image is very high. The highlight area and the system development direction have good reference function for the short-term and imminent forecast of the precipitation process that is occurring.展开更多
Considering the main thermal forcing factor, which is critical for the development of synoptic systems, the concept of the moist ageostrophic vector Q is introduced. A formula of the moist ageostrophic Q and the ageos...Considering the main thermal forcing factor, which is critical for the development of synoptic systems, the concept of the moist ageostrophic vector Q is introduced. A formula of the moist ageostrophic Q and the ageostrophic diabatic equation, in which the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q is taken as a single forcing term, is derived. Meanwhile, the moist ageostrophic Q is applied to diagnose a torrential rain process in North China. The results suggest that the moist ageostrophic Q can clearly reveal the system development during the torrential rain process; the corresponding relationship between the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q and the rainfall area is better than that of the vertical velocity (w) and the divergence of the dry Q; the 6-h rainfall region can be correctly drawn according to the negative area of the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q, and its precipitation is positively correlated to the magnitude of the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q. The research provides valuable information for improving short-term weather forecast.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42375014,42088101,42030605)Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(24NLTSZ010)Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by BAST(BYESS2023205)。
文摘In recent years,torrential rain events caused by extratropical cyclones(ETCs)during the boreal midsummer(July-August)in Central and Eastern China have shown an increasing trend.For instence,in August 2024,two ETCs brought large-scale heavy rainfall to North China,with daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm.Using reanalysis datasets and gridded precipitation data,the ETCs that affected Central and Eastern China during the boreal midsummer from 1981 to 2020 were objectively identified and tracked.ETCs causing precipitation were classified based on maximum daily precipitation,resulting in datasets for ETCs with torrential rain(daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm,referred to as ETC_R100)and heavy rain(daily precipitation exceeding 25 mm,referred to as ETC_R25).Comparative analysis can help highlight the characteristics of ETC_R100.This study compares the spatial distribution,movement paths,weather impacts,large-scale atmospheric circulation,and environmental conditions of these two types of precipitation-related ETCs.The following findings emerged:(1)ETC_R100 is driven by the combined forcing of upper-level troughs and warm-moist airflows at lower levels,exhibiting stronger thermal forcing than ETC_R25.(2)The moisture source for ETC_R100 are the Bay of Bengal and the Northwest Pacific,with moisture transported via the South China Sea.Compared to ETCs with nonextreme rainfall,ETC_R100 is characterized by greater atmospheric instability and better moisture conditions,resulting in higher precipitation intensity.(3)Regardless of the precipitation level,ETCs affected different regions but contributed significantly to precipitation in northern China,accounting for approximately 50%of the total precipitation.The results indicate that ETC_R100 differs significantly from ETCs with varying levels of precipitation in terms of statistical characteristics,weather impact,environmental conditions,and cyclogenesis conditions.
基金by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40405007 , 40275015 the OlympicProject under Grant No.KACX1-02 partially sup-ported by the"Outstanding Overseas Chinese Scholars"Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No.2002-1-2.
文摘The impacts of cloud-induced mass forcing on the development of the moist potential vorticity (MPV) anomaly associated with torrential rains are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR 1? × 1? data. The MPV tendency equation with the cloud-induced mass forcing is derived, and applied to the torrential rain event over the Changjiang River-Huaihe River Valleys during 26–30 June 1999. The result shows that positive anomalies are located mainly between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, while the maximum MPV, maximum positive tendency of the MPV, and maximum surface rainfall are nearly collocated. The cloud-induced mass forcing contributes to the positive tendency of the moist potential vorticity anomaly. The results indicate that the MPV may be used to track the propagation of rain systems for operational applications.
基金National Fundamental Research Development Project for Programme "973" (2004CB418303)
文摘Day-to-day precipitation data of Juries during the 43 years of 1958-2000 from stations to the south of Yangtze River are used to divide regions and run statistical analysis of sustained torrential rainfall processes. A preliminary analysis is then made based on it and the results show that June is the month in which torrential rains in the southern half of China take place frequently and sustained torrential rains occur at the same time in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. In addition, the analysis gives the basic features of sustained torrential rains of June in China and their interannual variability patterns, with the suggestion that the amount of these events increases significantly after the 1990s. Lastly, the sustained torrential rains occurring in Junes of 1994, 1998 and 2005 in the southern half of China are taken as examples in the research on the basic patterns and formation mechanisms of the evolution of double rain-bands during the rain season in South China and the area to the south of Yangtze River. The analysis shows that the large scale environment field in which sustained torrential rains occur is related to the stable sustaining of the South Asia High and upper level jet streams.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41175060 and 41375052)the Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZZD-EW-05)+1 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2013CB430105)the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LASW),Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grant No. 2013LASW-A06)
文摘NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data were used to analyze the characteristics and evolution mechanism of convective and symmetric instability before and during a heavy rainfall event that occurred in Beijing on 21 July 2012.Approximately twelve hours before the rainstorm,the atmosphere was mainly dominated by convective instability in the lower level of 900-800 hPa.The strong southwesterly low-level jet conveyed the moist and warm airflow continuously to the area of torrential rain,maintaining and enhancing the unstable energy.When the precipitation occurred,unstable energy was released and the convective instability weakened.Meanwhile,due to the baroclinicity enhancement in the atmosphere,the symmetric instability strengthened,maintaining and promoting the subsequent torrential rain.Deriving the convective instability tendency equation demonstrated that the barotropic component of potential divergence and the advection term played a major role in enhancing the convective instability before the rainstorm.Analysis of the tendency equation of moist potential vorticity showed that the coupled term of vertical vorticity and the baroclinic component of potential divergence was the primary factor influencing the development of symmetric instability during the precipitation.Comparing the effects of these factors on convective instability and symmetric instability showed some correlation.
基金supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant No.24710206,Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
文摘This paper presents debris-flow numerical simulations using the Hyper KANAKO system,developed by the authors.The system uses the debris flow simulator KANAKO 2D equipped with a graphical user interface(GUI);hence,a user can easily produce appropriate landform data for simulations using standard laser profiler data,and visualize the results using a GIS.Hyper KANAKO was applied to the streams around Kiyomizu-dera in Kyoto,Japan.Kiyomizu-dera is a famous temple in Japan which is visited by numerous tourists throughout the year.We simulated a disaster scenario of debris flow caused by torrential rain.We set the hydrograph using rainfall intensity data,and set the landform data using information from the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan(GSI) and a digital elevation model(DEM).We evaluated different mesh sizes and also used a digital surface model(DSM) to consider the building heights.The simulation results showed that with small mesh size,the debris flowmoved through the roads,which seems realistic for a disaster situation.When buildings were considered,the flow direction changed,and a 1-m flow depth,which was deeper than in other cases,appeared in the flow path.This may pose a dangerous situation for evacuations.
基金Research on Floods-Causing Heavy Rains Based on CINRAD/SA, a public wellbeing projectfrom the Ministry of Science and Technology (2000 DIB20103)
文摘1 INTRODUCTION Locating between the southern temperate climate zone and northern subtropical climate zone, the basin of Huaihe River witnesses frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters, especially from May to August when heavy rains usually result in floods. There has been much research at home and abroad on the estimation of rainfall based on radar data and satellite imagery . Experiments on heavy rains are mainly, however, based on Type 713 weather radar, which limits quantitative estimation of rainfall. With data from a Doppler weather radar on the S band （CINRAD/SA） co-manufactured by China and U.S.A. in 1999, this work makes quantitative estimation of rainfall over the Anhui region in the Huaihe River valley, supplemented with GMS satellite data, records from weather stations and automatic rain gauges. A localized model and set of indices have been set up to utilize the CINRAD/SA radar and GMS satellite, flood-causing heavy rains are pre-warned and forecast with interpretations of the NWP product HLAFS, and a software ofpre-warning operation is finalized to watch this kind of rain over the valley.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1507404)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41805035,41775050,41705035)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2020A1515011034)
文摘A good representation of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer(PBL)and the surface layer(SL)in numerical models is of great importance for the prediction of the initiation and development of convection.This study examined an ensemble that consists of the available suites of PBL and SL parameterizations based on a torrential rainfall event over south China.The sensitivity of the simulations was investigated against objective measurements using multiple PBL and SL parameterization schemes.The main causes of the bias from different parameterization schemes were further analysed by comparing the good and bad ensemble members.The results showed that good members tended to underestimate the rainfall amount but presented a decent evolution of mesoscale convective systems that were responsible for the torrential rainfall.Using the total energy mass flux(TEMF)scheme,the bad members overestimated the amount and spatial coverage of rainfall.The failure of the bad member was due to a spurious convection initiation(CI)resulting from the overestimated high-θe elevated air.The spurious CI developed and expanded rapidly,causing intensive and extensive rainfall over south China.Consistent with previous studies,the TEMF scheme tends to produce a warmer and moister PBL environment.The detailed sensitivity analysis of this case may provide reference for the operational forecast of rainfall over south China using multiple PBL and SL parameterizations.
文摘The quasi 11-year cycle of sunspot activities and torrential rain days in Fuxin during 1951-2005 were studied.As was shown in the results,the relative number of sunspots and the torrential rain days in the sunspot cycle of trough value were significantly related with a correlation coefficient of 0.842.At the same time,the correlation coefficient between torrential rain days in Fuxin and the relative number of sunspots of certain year within the sunspot cycle of trough value reached 0.737.It was clear that the torrential rain days in Fuxin were closely related with solar activity.The conclusion would provide the favorable climate background and basis for the study of regularity of rainstorm outbreak,monitoring and forecasting of torrential rain and regularity of agricultural drought and flood.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275013,42030611 and 42175008)the Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(Grant No.2021LASWB17)。
文摘An extreme torrential rain(ETR)event occurred in Henan Province,China,during 18-21 July 2021.Based on hourly rain-gauge observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,the ETR was studied from the perspective of kinetic energy(K),which can be divided into rotational wind(V_(R))kinetic energy(K_(R)),divergent wind kinetic energy(K_(D)),and the kinetic energy of the interaction between the divergent and rotational winds(K_(RD)).According to the hourly precipitation intensity variability,the ETR process was divided into an initial stage,a rapid increase stage,and maintenance stage.Results showed that the intensification and maintenance of ETR were closely related to the upper-level K,and most closely related to the upperlevel K_(R),with a correlation coefficient of up to 0.9.In particular,the peak value of hourly rainfall intensity lagged behind the K_(R) by 8 h.Furthermore,diagnosis showed that K transformation from unresolvable to resolvable scales made the ETR increase slowly.The meridional rotational wind(u_(R))and meridional gradient of the geopotential(φ)jointly determined the conversion of available potential energy(APE)to K_(R) through the barotropic process,which dominated the rapid enhancement of K_(R) and then caused the rapid increase in ETR.The transportation of K by rotational wind consumed K_(R),and basically offset the K_(R) produced by the barotropic process,which basically kept K_(R) stable at a high value,thus maintaining the ETR.
基金Supported by the Special Project for the Weathermen of Shandong Province(sdyby2012-07)~~
文摘In order to further study the drop zone of torrential rain in Weifang and summarize the experience of forecasting torrential rain in the future,a special diagnosis analysis was made on the process of the torrential rain.The meteorological information comprehensive analysis and processing system（MICAPS） 3.1 was used to carry out the analysis of profile and sounding to the conventional meteorological data,and finally numerical weather prediction was tested,which got the reason of production and omission of torrential rain.The results showed that one of the important reason of the torrential rain was caused by the combined effects of the dry cold air brought by the middle latitude shortwave trough and the southwest warm wet airflow brought by the jet flow,and the terrain influence caused by the Yishan in southern Liju County and the water evaporation in Mihe River was also an important reason.The main reason for the omission of the rain was caused by the over dependent on the rainfall forecast of numerical products and neglected the evolution of small scale process as well as analysis of the physical quantity field.Therefore,it was very important to monitor the actual weather situation and analyze all kinds of physical quantities for forecasting torrential rain.Besides,the forecaster should improve their ability in revising the numerical weather prediction.
文摘The present study aims to propose a method to search for the most appropriate evacuation routes that take calorie consumption required for evacuees to reach evacuation sites into consideration, by focusing on disasters caused by heavy rainfall, and using genetic algorithm (GA) and geographic information system (GIS). Specifically, GA was used to design and develop an evacuation route search algorithm and 4 parameters including the number of generations, mutation rate number of individuals and crossover rate were set by conducting sensitivity analyses. Additionally, GIS was also used to create road network data and contour data for digital maps and calculate the altitude of each crossover point. Based on these, the necessary calorie consumption to reach evacuation sites for each route was calculated, and that made it possible to derive the several evacuation routes with the small values unlike other methods. By using GA and GIS to suggest detailed evacuation routes, which take the necessary calories required to reach evacuation sites into consideration, it can be expected that the present study should contribute to the decision-making of evacuees. Additionally, as the method is based on public information, the method has high spatial and temporal repeatability. Because evacuation routes are proposed based on quantified data, the selected evacuation routes are quantitatively evaluated, and are an effective indicator for deciding on an evacuation route. Additionally, evacuation routes that accurately reflect current conditions can be derived by utilizing detailed information as data.
基金Supported by Key Project of Hunan Meteorological Bureau in 2021(XQKJ21A006)。
文摘Based on the precipitation data and torrential rain disaster data in Zhangjiajie City of Hunan Province from 2016 to 2020,taking the claim cases of the property and cargo insurance(hereinafter referred to as"property and cargo insurance")from Hunan Branch of the People’s Insurance Company of China as the research sample,the Dominance Analysis Method was used to determine the influence weights of disaster-causing factors to establish a comprehensive disaster-causing index(I)model of torrential rain.Second,an exponential function was used to fit the relationship between the number of town or street which filed claims of property and cargo insurance and I,then to determine the threshold of I corresponding to different accident levels.The claim cases caused by torrential rain disaster in Zhangjiajie in the flood season of 2021 were selected to verify the I and its threshold.The results showed that the number of property and cargo insurance accidents caused by torrential rain in Zhangjiajie was generally low in east and west but high in middle areas.Among the disaster-causing factors,the weight of the 96-h accumulated precipitation on the scope of accident was the largest,reaching 28.6%.The simulated grades of the scope of accident,the amount of claim and the number of accidents of property and cargo insurance had a high correlation with the grades of actual disasters,and all passed the test at the 0.01 significance level.The threshold test results showed that the consistency rate or accuracy between the predicted level and the actual level of torrential rain disaster-causing cases was 71.4%,in which the predicted values of accuracy for the mild,moderate and severe disaster levels were 70%,70%and 100%,respectively.Therefore,the threshold of I established in this study can be used for the industrial meteorological services related to the property and cargo insurance in Zhangjiajie.
文摘[Objective]The research aimed to analyze a turning weather process in Binzhou City of Shandong Province in midsummer of 2010.[Method]Started from the short-term forecast ideas,the formation reason of heavy or torrential rain and local heavy rainstorm in Binzhou City during 4-5 August,2010 was analyzed from the circulation situation,physical quantity field,radar echo and so on.[Result]The westerly trough and cold air were the trigger mechanisms of precipitation.The warm wet air flow at the edge of subtropical high and the high-altitude low trough were the main systems of precipitation.It was the typical precipitation process that the northwest of subtropical high overlapped with the westerly trough.In the prior period,the high temperature continued.The cold air at 500 hPa made the convection strengthen.It was the main reason that the local precipitation was strong.In the forecast of rainstorm,the specific humidity,K index and SI index were the good physical quantities and reference indexes.In the formation process of rainstorm,K index had the increasing process.When the rainstorm finished,or the rain intensity weakened,K index decreased obviously.SI index indicated the development of convective precipitation.The radar echo analysis found that the mesocyclone appeared in the process for a short time.For it weakened quickly and disappeared in the shift process,the strong precipitation and gale were formed in the west of Binzou,but the hail wasn’t generated.[Conclusion]The research provided the experience for the forecast of such weather in future.
基金Supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program of China(2013CB430104)National Natural ScienceFoundation of China(41275048)Project on Research and Construction of Meteorological Support System Platform in BinhaiNew Area of Tianjin
文摘It has been reported that the heaviest rain event since 1951 hit Beijing on 21 July 2012 （henceforth referred to as the 721 case）.The frequency and extreme attributes of the large-scale circulation patterns observed during the 721 case are explored by using obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis （PCA） and reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR.The occurrence frequency of the 721-type circulation during the summers of 1951-2012 is 10.9%,while the frequency of torrential rain under this type of circulation is 4.51%.Relative to other rainstorms with similar large-scale circulations during the study period,the 721 case is characterized by a more westward extension of the subtropical high over the western North Pacific,a stronger low-level jet in the lower troposphere over the south of Beijing,a larger amount of ambient precipitable water,and a stronger vertical wind shear over Beijing.Among the 621 days with the 721-type circulation during the study period,the 721 case ranks the 54th in terms of the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing,the 209th in terms of the local vertical wind shear,and the 8th in terms of the local precipitable water.The 721 case is particularly extreme with respect to the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing and local precipitable water.Cases with similar circulations and equal or greater values of the 925-hPa low-level jet south of Beijing and local precipitable water have occurred thrice during the summers of 1951-2012 （i.e.,once every 21 years）.
文摘A shower cloud observed in Jiangxi,a hailstorm observed in Hebei and“75.8”torrential rain in Henan are simulated with our microphysical model in a one-dimensional framework.The model,using the radio- sonde data as input,gets its output which shows agreement in many aspects as compared with observations in each case.The glaciation of small cumulus cloud,low precipitation efficiency of hailstorm and the per- sistence of torrential rain are demonstrated.It is also shown that the Bergeron process has little influence, but the warm-rain process plays an important role in the formation of precipitation in cumulonimbus with a warm cloud base.
基金Supported by the Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain(IHR2006K01)the China Meteorological Administration Special Research Project(GYHY200706020)
文摘Considering the non-uniform saturation of the real atmosphere,a diagnostic study of a torrential rain event is performed from the perspective of the anomaly of the generalized moist potential vorticity（GMPV） after introducing the generalized potential temperature into the thermodynamic frame of the real atmosphere. The results show that the anomaly appeared at mid-lower levels of the troposphere when the torrential rain happened.Analysis of the magnitudes and locations of maximum values of the tendency of the GMPV indicates that the anomaly of the GMPV was closely related to the occurrence of torrential rain. Therefore,the GMPV could be used to forecast and diagnose the occurrence of torrential rain in operational application.
基金Supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(G1998040907)
文摘In this paper the Morlet complex wavelet {unction was applied to analyze the evolution features of multi-scale wave-intensity during a torrential rain process.Separating the suhsynoptic scale system on temperature of black body (TBB) fields during a torrential rain process over the Middle and Lower Reaches of Changjiang River in the last dekad of July 1998,the evolution of multi-scale wave-intensity can be expressed by wavelet modules,and its coherence was investigated with the cross spectrum between the multi-scale waves.The results show that the process of the accumulation and release on the energy of meso-β scale system was shown in the torrential rain process,and the meso-α scale system had an interference effect on the meso-β system in a shorter period.
基金Supported by the key project of National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40830958 and 40875028.
文摘A torrential rain event accompanying Typhoon Prapiroon occurred in 2000, with 24-h rainfall amount reaching 800 mm near the typhoon center. This event is simulated by the nonhydrostatic mesoscaie model ARPS （V5.2）, with thriple one-way nested-grids. Grid spacings of 45, 15, and 5 km are chosen for the three nested domains. The corresponding grid sizes are 75×75, 140× 140, and 180× 180, respectively. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, radar echoes, and CMS-5 satellite images are assimilated with the ARPS model initially using a 3-D data assimilation system-ADAS. The simple ice phase scheme and the Kain- Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme axe used. There are 35 layers in the vertical, with a vertical grid spacing of about 625 m. The integration is performed up to 48 h from 0800 BT 29 to 0800 BT 31 August 2000. Compared with radar echoes, GMS-5 satellite images, and intensive surface observations, the results show that the heavy rain area down between the 500-hPa trough and the subtropical high in the left-front of Prapiroon is well simulated by the model ARPS, and the simulated rainfall centers are consistent with observations. A comparison of the radar echoes with these retrieved from the simulated hydrometeors reveals that there are meso-β scale convective systems that exhibit distinctive characteristics, and there are four convective belts converging in the vicinity of Xiangshui, where the maximum rainfall is observed. A further comparision of skew T-lgp diagrams from simulated and observed data demonstrates significant instability in this torrential rain process. The persistent vertical wind shear provides kinetic energy for the development of the MCSs, hence promoting the baroclinic development of convective cells, and the concentration of heavy rain at the specific location. The consistency between model results and observations encourages a further study of the torrential rain event using the simulation data.
文摘In this paper, the synoptic process of convective heavy rain in Pingxiang and heavy rain in some areas from July 9 to 10, 2020 is analyzed by using high-altitude weather maps, automatic regional station data, sounding data maps and satellite cloud pictures. The results show that (1) The high pressure in the upper atmosphere is maintained, the circulation situation of "two troughs and one ridge" in the middle and high latitudes is stable, the large trough in East Asia is stable and less moving, and the low trough in Lake Baikal is deepening southward to guide cold air southward;The subtropical high at low latitudes strengthened westward and remained stable with little movement. The warm and humid air flow at the northwest side provided continuous water vapor transportation for Pingxiang. The strong convergence of the southward dry and cold air and the southward warm and humid air, combined with the favorable conditions of convergence in the lower level and divergence in the upper level, constituted the basic circulation situation of the rainstorm. (2) The warm and humid air flow in the middle and low levels transports a large amount of unstable energy and abundant water vapor, and the convergence line on the ground triggers the release of unstable energy, which, in combination with the uplift of the shear system in the lower level, results in obvious convective precipitation in Pingxiang. (3) Convective monomer is continuously generated and developed near the shear line, and moves and merges along the system direction. The region matching degree between the highlight area and the short-term strong precipitation on the cloud image is very high. The highlight area and the system development direction have good reference function for the short-term and imminent forecast of the precipitation process that is occurring.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40205008 and 401350201.
文摘Considering the main thermal forcing factor, which is critical for the development of synoptic systems, the concept of the moist ageostrophic vector Q is introduced. A formula of the moist ageostrophic Q and the ageostrophic diabatic equation, in which the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q is taken as a single forcing term, is derived. Meanwhile, the moist ageostrophic Q is applied to diagnose a torrential rain process in North China. The results suggest that the moist ageostrophic Q can clearly reveal the system development during the torrential rain process; the corresponding relationship between the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q and the rainfall area is better than that of the vertical velocity (w) and the divergence of the dry Q; the 6-h rainfall region can be correctly drawn according to the negative area of the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q, and its precipitation is positively correlated to the magnitude of the divergence of the moist ageostrophic Q. The research provides valuable information for improving short-term weather forecast.
