The rapid development of technology has led to an ever-increasing demand for electrical energy.In the context of Timor-Leste,which still relies on fossil energy sources with high operational costs and significant envi...The rapid development of technology has led to an ever-increasing demand for electrical energy.In the context of Timor-Leste,which still relies on fossil energy sources with high operational costs and significant environmental impacts,electricity load forecasting is a strategic measure to support the energy transition towards the Net Zero Emission(NZE)target by 2050.This study aims to utilize historical electricity load data for the period 2013–2024,as well as data on external factors affecting electricity consumption,to forecast electricity load in Timor-Leste in the next 10 years(2025–2035).The forecasting results are expected to support efforts in energy distribution efficiency,reduce operational costs,and inform decisions related to the sustainable energy transition.The method used in this study consists of two main approaches:the causality method,represented by the econometric Principal Component Analysis(PCA)model,which involves external factors in the data processing process,and the time series method,utilizing the LSTM,XGBoost,and hybrid(LSTM+XGBoost)models.In the time series method,data processing is combined with two approaches:the sliding window and the rolling recursive forecast.The performance of each model is evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE).The model with the lowest MAPE(<10%)is considered the best-performing model,indicating the highest accuracy.Additionally,a Monte Carlo simulation with 50,000 iterations was used to process the data and measure the prediction uncertainty,as well as test the calibration of the electricity load projection data.The results showed that the hybrid model(LSTM+XGBoost)with a rolling forecast recursive approach is the best-performing model in predicting electricity load in Timor-Leste.This model yields an RMSE of 75.76 MW,an MAE of 55.76 MW,and an MAPE of 5.27%,indicating a high level of accuracy.In addition,the model is also indicated as one that fits the characteristics of electricity load in Timor-Leste,as it produces the lowest percentage of forecasting error in predicting electricity load.The integration of the best model with Monte Carlo Simulation,which yields a p-value of 0.565,suggests that the results of electricity load projections for the period 2025–2035 are well-calibrated,reliable,accurate,and unbiased.展开更多
During the entry of specimen data from the paper by O＇Shea et al. （2015） into the database at the National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution （USNM）, one of us （KAT） realized that several errors...During the entry of specimen data from the paper by O＇Shea et al. （2015） into the database at the National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution （USNM）, one of us （KAT） realized that several errors existed, likely stemming from inverted specimen numbers, typos, or inadvertently skipping lines while transferring information from lines in a spreadsheet. We here present the corrected entries, listed in the same taxon order as in the original paper.展开更多
We report the results of five herpetological surveys during 2011-2013 that included visits to all districts of Timor-Leste （Aileu, Ainaro, Baucau, Bobonaro, Dili, Covalima, Ermera, Laut6m, Liquiga, Manatuto, Manufahi...We report the results of five herpetological surveys during 2011-2013 that included visits to all districts of Timor-Leste （Aileu, Ainaro, Baucau, Bobonaro, Dili, Covalima, Ermera, Laut6m, Liquiga, Manatuto, Manufahi, Viqueque） except the Oecusse exclave. Our fieldwork culminated in the discovery of one putative new frog species （genus Kaloula）, at least five putative new lizard species （genera Cyrtodactylus, Cryptoblepharus, and Sphenomorphus）, and two putative new snake species （genera Stegonotus and Indotyphlops）. In addition, we present new distribution records of amphibians and reptiles for 11 of the country＇s 12 contiguous districts, along with additional natural history data. Results from our surveys increase the number of amphibian and reptiles known to occur in Timor-Leste from 22 species before our surveys began to over 60, including over 20 as yet undescribed species.展开更多
Herpetological surveys of locations in six districts of Timor-Leste(Dili, Baucau, Ermera, Liqui a, Manatuto, Viqueque) during 2010 led to the discovery of a new, high-altitude species of Cryptoblepharus from Ermera Di...Herpetological surveys of locations in six districts of Timor-Leste(Dili, Baucau, Ermera, Liqui a, Manatuto, Viqueque) during 2010 led to the discovery of a new, high-altitude species of Cryptoblepharus from Ermera District, a new country record(Hemidactylus cf. tenkatei), and the recording of two previously unvouchered species(Python r. reticulatus and Liasis m. mackloti). In this article, we summarize these new records and present numerous new district records for Timor-Leste and four records for road-killed snakes seen in West Timor(Indonesia). With the addition of the results from our 2009 survey, the update presented herein increases the confirmed number of amphibian and reptile species for Timor-Leste to 47.展开更多
Timor island has a tropical climate with relatively little rainfall and surface water is often not available throughout the year with groundwater relied on to fulfill daily domestic necessities. Geological reconnaissa...Timor island has a tropical climate with relatively little rainfall and surface water is often not available throughout the year with groundwater relied on to fulfill daily domestic necessities. Geological reconnaissance mapping, hydrogeological investigation, and resistivity survey were undertaken in this study to systematically understand the hydrogeologic system (e.g., aquifer system, hydrostratigraphic units, groundwater flow direction) and its potentiality for water supply to human consumption in Alaua Kraik area, Baucau Municipality, Timor-Leste. Res2DInv, Dips 5.1, Surfer 16, Global Mapper 13, and ArcGIS 10.6 software was used to create geological reconnaissance maps, resistivity interpretation profile lines, and a hydrostratigraphic model. Rainfall precipitation, rainfall intensity, maximum rate of runoff and infiltration data are also used to interpret the groundwater potential in the study area. Two rock units occur in the study area;permeable alluvial deposits which unconformable overlie impermeable interbedded red marl-chert and calcareous shale. Structurally the area comprises the Lacamutu anticline, thrust fault, left slip fault, and normal right slip fault. Resistivity lines indicate three (3) types of lithologies: alluvial deposit, an intercalated layer of red marl-chert, calcareous shale and wet calcareous shale. The alluvial deposit and red marl-chert layer intercalated with calcareous shale units are classified as a hydrostratigraphic unit of intergranular and localised aquifer systems with low productivity. The groundwater flows through the existing fractures of the shear joint and tends to flow towards the left slip fault plane zone from the North to South direction. Much of the rainwater in the study area is most likely intercepted, evaporated, and or transpiration as opposed to running off and infiltrating into the ground. The permeable and heavily fractured impermeable rock units in the study area have good porosity but low permeability and represent poor aquifers. The springs and Lacamutu River have low discharge and are generally dry in the dry season as it does not have an adequate aquifer that can accumulate and pass groundwater with significant volumes even if the rainfall in the study area is classified as moderate rainfall.展开更多
This study aims to apply a hydrogeological approaches and analysis of the 2021 flood event of Tasi-Tolu Lagoon to achieve four specific goals. Firstly, the study seeks to determine the natural characteristics of the l...This study aims to apply a hydrogeological approaches and analysis of the 2021 flood event of Tasi-Tolu Lagoon to achieve four specific goals. Firstly, the study seeks to determine the natural characteristics of the lagoon, which include factors such as size, depth, water quality, and ecosystem composition. Secondly, the influence of precipitation on the water volume in the lagoon will be examined. This analysis involves assessing historical rainfall patterns in the region, as well as the amount and frequency of precipitation during the 2021 flood event. Thirdly, the hydrogeologic and geologic conditions of the lagoon will be evaluated. This involves examining factors such as the type and structure of the soil and bedrock, the presence of aquifers or other underground water sources, and the movement of water through the surrounding landscape. Finally, the study seeks to assess the risk of future flooding in Tasi-Tolu Lagoon, based on the insights gained from the previous analyses. Overall, this study’s goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the hydrogeological factors that contribute to flooding in Tasi-Tolu Lagoon. This knowledge could be used to inform flood mitigation strategies or to improve our ability to predict and respond to future flooding events in the region.展开更多
Slash-and-burn practices used by farmers in prior growing periods could affect soil quality, particularly topsoil properties. This study aimed to assess soil biophysical and chemical properties at different landscape ...Slash-and-burn practices used by farmers in prior growing periods could affect soil quality, particularly topsoil properties. This study aimed to assess soil biophysical and chemical properties at different landscape levels within the watershed site. Soil samples were collected by a core method in the topsoil layer in slash-and-burn sites. Field analysis was on bulk density and porosity by the gravimetric method, while laboratory analysis was done on organic matter by the Loss on Ignitions Method and other macronutrients for crops (total nitrogen, phosphorus availability, and potassium availability) followed standard analytical methods. To see if there was a significant difference between sites, DMRT 5% was used. The results of the study showed slash-and-burn practice affects soil physical properties such that high bulk density in upstream, midstream, and downstream ranged from 1.55 g/cm<sup>3</sup> to 1.71 g/cm<sup>3</sup>, 1.55 g/cm<sup>3</sup> to 1.80 g/cm<sup>3</sup>, and 1.38 g/cm<sup>3 </sup>to 1.79 g/cm<sup>3</sup> respectively. Poor porosity in upstream, midstream, and downstream ranged from 33.91% to 40.06%, 30.38% to 41.75%, and 30.91% to 46.65%, respectively. Organic matter content was low in the upstream, midstream, and downstream areas, ranging from 2.86% to 3.39%, 2.58% to 3.88%, and 2.91% to 3.88%, respectively. However, soil pH remains neutral, and nitrogen levels are low but near-optimal in the upstream and very low in the midstream and downstream. Phosphorus is extremely high upstream but very low in midstream and downstream. However, potassium remains at a low level close optimum level in the entire watershed.展开更多
From the existing literature and data from museum specimens an overview is presented of all currently known terrestrial and semi-aquatic snakes of the Lesser Sunda Islands, in the Wallacean area of Indonesia. In total...From the existing literature and data from museum specimens an overview is presented of all currently known terrestrial and semi-aquatic snakes of the Lesser Sunda Islands, in the Wallacean area of Indonesia. In total, twenty-nine species are known to inhabit the area. Of these eight are endemic to the area： Boiga hoeseli, Coelognathus subradiatus, Dendrelaphis inornatus, Stegonotus florensis, Cylindrophis opisthorhodus, Broghammerus timoriensis, Liasis mackloti and Typhlops schmutzi. Insular endemism is only found at the subspecific level, including Liasis mackloti dunni （Wetar）, Liasis mackloti savuensis （Sawu）, Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus brongersmai （Sumba）, Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus elberti （Lombok） and Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus florensis （Flores）. Such endemism may be due to the relatively young geological age of the Lesser Sunda Islands and that the snake fauna is still underestimated. Taxonomy of the genus Cylindrophis, the species Coelognathus subradiatus, Dendrelaphis inornatus, Cryptelytrops insularis, and the five subspecies of Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus need to be reviewed. Ecological studies are urgently required to establish if the species Broghammerus timoriensis and Liasis mackloti savuensis are endangered and which conservation measures should be taken. Telah dilakukan pengamatan ulang dari kepustakaan yang ada, data dari databank Western Australian Museum, maupun koleksi museum. Hasil tersebut dirangkum dalam suam tinjauan mengenai semua jenis ular yang hidup di darat maupun di air-tawar dari daerah Nusa Tenggara sebagai bagian dari daerah Wallacea. Jumlah jenis yang dapat dipastikan berjumlah dua puluh sembilan jenis, dan delapan di antaranya merupakan jenis yang endemik, yaitu Boiga hoeseli, Coelognathus subradiatus, Dendrelaphis inornatus, Stegonotus florensis, Cylindrophis opisthorhodus, Broghammerus timoriensis, Liasis mackloti dan Typhlops schmutzi. Jenis endemic dalam daerah pulau hanya meliputi anak jenis： Liasis mackloti dunni （Wetar）, Liasis mackloti savuensis （Sawu）, RamphotyphIops polygrammicus brongersmai （Sumba）, Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus elberti （Lombok） dan Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus florensis （Flores）. Hal ini diperkirakan merupakan konsekuensi langsung dari sejarah geologi yang relatif singkat namun dapat juga disebabkan karena kekayaan jenis ular kurang dipelajari dengan lebih seksama. Kedudukan sistematik dari Coelognathus subradiatus, Dendrelaphis inornatus, Cylindrophis boulengeri, C. opisthorhodus, dan ke-lima subspecies Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus serta Cryptelytrops insularis perlu ditinjau kembali. Jenis-jenis yang diperkirakan terancam dan perlu perlindungan adalah jenis-jenis piton Broghammerus timoriensis dan Liasis maekloti savuensis. Penelitian ekologi perlu segara dilakukan untuk menentukan apakah jenis-jenis tersebut perlu perlindungan, dan juga tindakan konservasi yang mana bisa diambil.展开更多
文摘The rapid development of technology has led to an ever-increasing demand for electrical energy.In the context of Timor-Leste,which still relies on fossil energy sources with high operational costs and significant environmental impacts,electricity load forecasting is a strategic measure to support the energy transition towards the Net Zero Emission(NZE)target by 2050.This study aims to utilize historical electricity load data for the period 2013–2024,as well as data on external factors affecting electricity consumption,to forecast electricity load in Timor-Leste in the next 10 years(2025–2035).The forecasting results are expected to support efforts in energy distribution efficiency,reduce operational costs,and inform decisions related to the sustainable energy transition.The method used in this study consists of two main approaches:the causality method,represented by the econometric Principal Component Analysis(PCA)model,which involves external factors in the data processing process,and the time series method,utilizing the LSTM,XGBoost,and hybrid(LSTM+XGBoost)models.In the time series method,data processing is combined with two approaches:the sliding window and the rolling recursive forecast.The performance of each model is evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE).The model with the lowest MAPE(<10%)is considered the best-performing model,indicating the highest accuracy.Additionally,a Monte Carlo simulation with 50,000 iterations was used to process the data and measure the prediction uncertainty,as well as test the calibration of the electricity load projection data.The results showed that the hybrid model(LSTM+XGBoost)with a rolling forecast recursive approach is the best-performing model in predicting electricity load in Timor-Leste.This model yields an RMSE of 75.76 MW,an MAE of 55.76 MW,and an MAPE of 5.27%,indicating a high level of accuracy.In addition,the model is also indicated as one that fits the characteristics of electricity load in Timor-Leste,as it produces the lowest percentage of forecasting error in predicting electricity load.The integration of the best model with Monte Carlo Simulation,which yields a p-value of 0.565,suggests that the results of electricity load projections for the period 2025–2035 are well-calibrated,reliable,accurate,and unbiased.
文摘During the entry of specimen data from the paper by O＇Shea et al. （2015） into the database at the National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution （USNM）, one of us （KAT） realized that several errors existed, likely stemming from inverted specimen numbers, typos, or inadvertently skipping lines while transferring information from lines in a spreadsheet. We here present the corrected entries, listed in the same taxon order as in the original paper.
文摘We report the results of five herpetological surveys during 2011-2013 that included visits to all districts of Timor-Leste （Aileu, Ainaro, Baucau, Bobonaro, Dili, Covalima, Ermera, Laut6m, Liquiga, Manatuto, Manufahi, Viqueque） except the Oecusse exclave. Our fieldwork culminated in the discovery of one putative new frog species （genus Kaloula）, at least five putative new lizard species （genera Cyrtodactylus, Cryptoblepharus, and Sphenomorphus）, and two putative new snake species （genera Stegonotus and Indotyphlops）. In addition, we present new distribution records of amphibians and reptiles for 11 of the country＇s 12 contiguous districts, along with additional natural history data. Results from our surveys increase the number of amphibian and reptiles known to occur in Timor-Leste from 22 species before our surveys began to over 60, including over 20 as yet undescribed species.
基金Financial assistance for equipment and supplies was partially provided by a Title V Grant to Victor Valley CollegePartial financing of student travel was provided by the Associated Student Body at Victor Valley College
文摘Herpetological surveys of locations in six districts of Timor-Leste(Dili, Baucau, Ermera, Liqui a, Manatuto, Viqueque) during 2010 led to the discovery of a new, high-altitude species of Cryptoblepharus from Ermera District, a new country record(Hemidactylus cf. tenkatei), and the recording of two previously unvouchered species(Python r. reticulatus and Liasis m. mackloti). In this article, we summarize these new records and present numerous new district records for Timor-Leste and four records for road-killed snakes seen in West Timor(Indonesia). With the addition of the results from our 2009 survey, the update presented herein increases the confirmed number of amphibian and reptile species for Timor-Leste to 47.
文摘Timor island has a tropical climate with relatively little rainfall and surface water is often not available throughout the year with groundwater relied on to fulfill daily domestic necessities. Geological reconnaissance mapping, hydrogeological investigation, and resistivity survey were undertaken in this study to systematically understand the hydrogeologic system (e.g., aquifer system, hydrostratigraphic units, groundwater flow direction) and its potentiality for water supply to human consumption in Alaua Kraik area, Baucau Municipality, Timor-Leste. Res2DInv, Dips 5.1, Surfer 16, Global Mapper 13, and ArcGIS 10.6 software was used to create geological reconnaissance maps, resistivity interpretation profile lines, and a hydrostratigraphic model. Rainfall precipitation, rainfall intensity, maximum rate of runoff and infiltration data are also used to interpret the groundwater potential in the study area. Two rock units occur in the study area;permeable alluvial deposits which unconformable overlie impermeable interbedded red marl-chert and calcareous shale. Structurally the area comprises the Lacamutu anticline, thrust fault, left slip fault, and normal right slip fault. Resistivity lines indicate three (3) types of lithologies: alluvial deposit, an intercalated layer of red marl-chert, calcareous shale and wet calcareous shale. The alluvial deposit and red marl-chert layer intercalated with calcareous shale units are classified as a hydrostratigraphic unit of intergranular and localised aquifer systems with low productivity. The groundwater flows through the existing fractures of the shear joint and tends to flow towards the left slip fault plane zone from the North to South direction. Much of the rainwater in the study area is most likely intercepted, evaporated, and or transpiration as opposed to running off and infiltrating into the ground. The permeable and heavily fractured impermeable rock units in the study area have good porosity but low permeability and represent poor aquifers. The springs and Lacamutu River have low discharge and are generally dry in the dry season as it does not have an adequate aquifer that can accumulate and pass groundwater with significant volumes even if the rainfall in the study area is classified as moderate rainfall.
文摘This study aims to apply a hydrogeological approaches and analysis of the 2021 flood event of Tasi-Tolu Lagoon to achieve four specific goals. Firstly, the study seeks to determine the natural characteristics of the lagoon, which include factors such as size, depth, water quality, and ecosystem composition. Secondly, the influence of precipitation on the water volume in the lagoon will be examined. This analysis involves assessing historical rainfall patterns in the region, as well as the amount and frequency of precipitation during the 2021 flood event. Thirdly, the hydrogeologic and geologic conditions of the lagoon will be evaluated. This involves examining factors such as the type and structure of the soil and bedrock, the presence of aquifers or other underground water sources, and the movement of water through the surrounding landscape. Finally, the study seeks to assess the risk of future flooding in Tasi-Tolu Lagoon, based on the insights gained from the previous analyses. Overall, this study’s goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the hydrogeological factors that contribute to flooding in Tasi-Tolu Lagoon. This knowledge could be used to inform flood mitigation strategies or to improve our ability to predict and respond to future flooding events in the region.
文摘Slash-and-burn practices used by farmers in prior growing periods could affect soil quality, particularly topsoil properties. This study aimed to assess soil biophysical and chemical properties at different landscape levels within the watershed site. Soil samples were collected by a core method in the topsoil layer in slash-and-burn sites. Field analysis was on bulk density and porosity by the gravimetric method, while laboratory analysis was done on organic matter by the Loss on Ignitions Method and other macronutrients for crops (total nitrogen, phosphorus availability, and potassium availability) followed standard analytical methods. To see if there was a significant difference between sites, DMRT 5% was used. The results of the study showed slash-and-burn practice affects soil physical properties such that high bulk density in upstream, midstream, and downstream ranged from 1.55 g/cm<sup>3</sup> to 1.71 g/cm<sup>3</sup>, 1.55 g/cm<sup>3</sup> to 1.80 g/cm<sup>3</sup>, and 1.38 g/cm<sup>3 </sup>to 1.79 g/cm<sup>3</sup> respectively. Poor porosity in upstream, midstream, and downstream ranged from 33.91% to 40.06%, 30.38% to 41.75%, and 30.91% to 46.65%, respectively. Organic matter content was low in the upstream, midstream, and downstream areas, ranging from 2.86% to 3.39%, 2.58% to 3.88%, and 2.91% to 3.88%, respectively. However, soil pH remains neutral, and nitrogen levels are low but near-optimal in the upstream and very low in the midstream and downstream. Phosphorus is extremely high upstream but very low in midstream and downstream. However, potassium remains at a low level close optimum level in the entire watershed.
文摘From the existing literature and data from museum specimens an overview is presented of all currently known terrestrial and semi-aquatic snakes of the Lesser Sunda Islands, in the Wallacean area of Indonesia. In total, twenty-nine species are known to inhabit the area. Of these eight are endemic to the area： Boiga hoeseli, Coelognathus subradiatus, Dendrelaphis inornatus, Stegonotus florensis, Cylindrophis opisthorhodus, Broghammerus timoriensis, Liasis mackloti and Typhlops schmutzi. Insular endemism is only found at the subspecific level, including Liasis mackloti dunni （Wetar）, Liasis mackloti savuensis （Sawu）, Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus brongersmai （Sumba）, Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus elberti （Lombok） and Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus florensis （Flores）. Such endemism may be due to the relatively young geological age of the Lesser Sunda Islands and that the snake fauna is still underestimated. Taxonomy of the genus Cylindrophis, the species Coelognathus subradiatus, Dendrelaphis inornatus, Cryptelytrops insularis, and the five subspecies of Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus need to be reviewed. Ecological studies are urgently required to establish if the species Broghammerus timoriensis and Liasis mackloti savuensis are endangered and which conservation measures should be taken. Telah dilakukan pengamatan ulang dari kepustakaan yang ada, data dari databank Western Australian Museum, maupun koleksi museum. Hasil tersebut dirangkum dalam suam tinjauan mengenai semua jenis ular yang hidup di darat maupun di air-tawar dari daerah Nusa Tenggara sebagai bagian dari daerah Wallacea. Jumlah jenis yang dapat dipastikan berjumlah dua puluh sembilan jenis, dan delapan di antaranya merupakan jenis yang endemik, yaitu Boiga hoeseli, Coelognathus subradiatus, Dendrelaphis inornatus, Stegonotus florensis, Cylindrophis opisthorhodus, Broghammerus timoriensis, Liasis mackloti dan Typhlops schmutzi. Jenis endemic dalam daerah pulau hanya meliputi anak jenis： Liasis mackloti dunni （Wetar）, Liasis mackloti savuensis （Sawu）, RamphotyphIops polygrammicus brongersmai （Sumba）, Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus elberti （Lombok） dan Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus florensis （Flores）. Hal ini diperkirakan merupakan konsekuensi langsung dari sejarah geologi yang relatif singkat namun dapat juga disebabkan karena kekayaan jenis ular kurang dipelajari dengan lebih seksama. Kedudukan sistematik dari Coelognathus subradiatus, Dendrelaphis inornatus, Cylindrophis boulengeri, C. opisthorhodus, dan ke-lima subspecies Ramphotyphlops polygrammicus serta Cryptelytrops insularis perlu ditinjau kembali. Jenis-jenis yang diperkirakan terancam dan perlu perlindungan adalah jenis-jenis piton Broghammerus timoriensis dan Liasis maekloti savuensis. Penelitian ekologi perlu segara dilakukan untuk menentukan apakah jenis-jenis tersebut perlu perlindungan, dan juga tindakan konservasi yang mana bisa diambil.
