The North Coastal Region of the State of S?o Paulo, which comprises the Municipalities of Caraguatatuba, S?o Sebasti?o, Ilhabela and Ubatuba, is one of the most prone to flooding and debris flow deposition Brazilian a...The North Coastal Region of the State of S?o Paulo, which comprises the Municipalities of Caraguatatuba, S?o Sebasti?o, Ilhabela and Ubatuba, is one of the most prone to flooding and debris flow deposition Brazilian areas, owing to hydrological extreme rainfall events usually coupled with extreme tidal levels. This risk is also high due to human lives and material assets, with increasing population rates and the establishment of large companies such as the Oil industry, with reduced defense/prevention measures and works.The catastrophic scenario of the city of Caraguatatuba, in March 1967, resulting from one of the most serious natural disasters in Brazil, fosters discussions about probabilities of heavy rainfall-caused events and rise in the sea level in coastal areas. Hence, this research is a consequence of this reality. The research is founded on an innovative methodology based on the analysis of past data of rainfall and tidal stations, complemented with debris flow registers in the region of the north coastal zone of the State of S?o Paulo (Brazil). The anaysis developed involved the meteorological, hydraulic, geotechnical and statistical knowledge areas.Practical results are intended to be used for urban planning, designs of macro-drainage, fluvial, maritime projects and debris flow retention structures. These practical applications will then associate the probability of occurrence of certain types of heavy rainfall-caused events such as flooding or debris flow coupled with a corresponding increase in tidal levels.展开更多
Progressive modifications in submarine topography and shorelines drastically affect tidal dynamics in bays.This study examines the influence of topographic slope,bay length,and driving forces on tidal currents followi...Progressive modifications in submarine topography and shorelines drastically affect tidal dynamics in bays.This study examines the influence of topographic slope,bay length,and driving forces on tidal currents following land reclamation.Tidal equa-tions are analytically solved using infinite series,deriving expressions for tidal levels and currents in narrow bays with varying topog-raphy.Tidal levels,influenced by topographic variations,are characterized by amplitude and phase lag of their complex amplitude.These levels demonstrate high sensitivity to longitudinal slope variations but remain relatively stable under lateral slope changes.Un-der constant topographic slopes,even minor changes in bay length can drastically modify amplitude and phase lag,highlighting the sensitivity of tidal dynamics to geometric alterations.Tidal velocity notably increases with steeper longitudinal slopes and modestly rises with elevated lateral slopes.However,changes in longitudinal and lateral slopes do not considerably alter flow patterns.While external forces predominantly regulate tidal velocity with negligible effects on flow patterns,endogenous resistance influences veloci-ty but minimally impacts flow structure.These findings enhance the understanding of tidal responses to geometric and topographic changes,providing valuable guidance for land reclamation projects and coastal management strategies.展开更多
An efficient and accurate prediction of a precise tidal level in estuaries and coastal areas is indispensable for the management and decision-making of human activity in the field wok of marine engineering. The variat...An efficient and accurate prediction of a precise tidal level in estuaries and coastal areas is indispensable for the management and decision-making of human activity in the field wok of marine engineering. The variation of the tidal level is a time-varying process. The time-varying factors including interference from the external environment that cause the change of tides are fairly complicated. Furthermore, tidal variations are affected not only by periodic movement of celestial bodies but also by time-varying interference from the external environment. Consequently, for the efficient and precise tidal level prediction, a neuro-fuzzy hybrid technology based on the combination of harmonic analysis and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system（ANFIS）model is utilized to construct a precise tidal level prediction system, which takes both advantages of the harmonic analysis method and the ANFIS network. The proposed prediction model is composed of two modules： the astronomical tide module caused by celestial bodies’ movement and the non-astronomical tide module caused by various meteorological and other environmental factors. To generate a fuzzy inference system（FIS） structure,three approaches which include grid partition（GP）, fuzzy c-means（FCM） and sub-clustering（SC） are used in the ANFIS network constructing process. Furthermore, to obtain the optimal ANFIS based prediction model, large numbers of simulation experiments are implemented for each FIS generating approach. In this tidal prediction study, the optimal ANFIS model is used to predict the non-astronomical tide module, while the conventional harmonic analysis model is used to predict the astronomical tide module. The final prediction result is performed by combining the estimation outputs of the harmonious analysis model and the optimal ANFIS model. To demonstrate the applicability and capability of the proposed novel prediction model, measured tidal level samples of Fort Pulaski tidal station are selected as the testing database. Simulation and experimental results confirm that the proposed prediction approach can achieve precise predictions for the tidal level with high accuracy, satisfactory convergence and stability.展开更多
In this paper,the long time series data of the well water-level data of 12 wells in the Sichuan and Yunnan area is analyzed by the Baytap-G tidal analysis software,and well water level tidal response characteristic pa...In this paper,the long time series data of the well water-level data of 12 wells in the Sichuan and Yunnan area is analyzed by the Baytap-G tidal analysis software,and well water level tidal response characteristic parameters( amplitude ratio and phase change)are extracted. We analyzed the features of the shape and stage change,and characteristic parameters of the tidal response of well water level before and after the earthquakes,which can provide a new method and approach to analyzing the response relationships between well water level and earth tide and barometric pressure. The results show that Luguhu Well and 9 other wells are affected by earth tides,and their well water level amplitude ratios and phases are relatively stable; the Nanxi Well and Dayao Well water level changes are affected by the barometric pressure combined with tide force,and their well water level amplitude ratios and phases are more discrete. The water level amplitude ratios and phases of Jiangyou Well,Luguhu Well and Dongchuan Well are significant to large earthquakes,and the relationship between seismic energy density and water level amplitude ratios and phases of M_2 wave of the three wells are presented.展开更多
This work analyzes the quality of crustal tilt and strain observations during 2014, which were acquired from 269 sets of ground tiltmeters and 212 sets of strainmeters. In terms of data quality, the water tube tiltmet...This work analyzes the quality of crustal tilt and strain observations during 2014, which were acquired from 269 sets of ground tiltmeters and 212 sets of strainmeters. In terms of data quality, the water tube tiltmeters presented the highest rate of excellent quality,approximately 91%, and the pendulum tiltmeters and ground strainmeters yielded rates of81% and 78%, respectively. This means that a total of 380 sets of instruments produced high-quality observational data suitable for scientific investigations and analyses.展开更多
基金funded by CAPES(Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel).
文摘The North Coastal Region of the State of S?o Paulo, which comprises the Municipalities of Caraguatatuba, S?o Sebasti?o, Ilhabela and Ubatuba, is one of the most prone to flooding and debris flow deposition Brazilian areas, owing to hydrological extreme rainfall events usually coupled with extreme tidal levels. This risk is also high due to human lives and material assets, with increasing population rates and the establishment of large companies such as the Oil industry, with reduced defense/prevention measures and works.The catastrophic scenario of the city of Caraguatatuba, in March 1967, resulting from one of the most serious natural disasters in Brazil, fosters discussions about probabilities of heavy rainfall-caused events and rise in the sea level in coastal areas. Hence, this research is a consequence of this reality. The research is founded on an innovative methodology based on the analysis of past data of rainfall and tidal stations, complemented with debris flow registers in the region of the north coastal zone of the State of S?o Paulo (Brazil). The anaysis developed involved the meteorological, hydraulic, geotechnical and statistical knowledge areas.Practical results are intended to be used for urban planning, designs of macro-drainage, fluvial, maritime projects and debris flow retention structures. These practical applications will then associate the probability of occurrence of certain types of heavy rainfall-caused events such as flooding or debris flow coupled with a corresponding increase in tidal levels.
基金supported by the National Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China(No.U2106204)the Shanxi Water Conservancy Science and Technology Re-search and Extension Project(No.2023ZF19).
文摘Progressive modifications in submarine topography and shorelines drastically affect tidal dynamics in bays.This study examines the influence of topographic slope,bay length,and driving forces on tidal currents following land reclamation.Tidal equa-tions are analytically solved using infinite series,deriving expressions for tidal levels and currents in narrow bays with varying topog-raphy.Tidal levels,influenced by topographic variations,are characterized by amplitude and phase lag of their complex amplitude.These levels demonstrate high sensitivity to longitudinal slope variations but remain relatively stable under lateral slope changes.Un-der constant topographic slopes,even minor changes in bay length can drastically modify amplitude and phase lag,highlighting the sensitivity of tidal dynamics to geometric alterations.Tidal velocity notably increases with steeper longitudinal slopes and modestly rises with elevated lateral slopes.However,changes in longitudinal and lateral slopes do not considerably alter flow patterns.While external forces predominantly regulate tidal velocity with negligible effects on flow patterns,endogenous resistance influences veloci-ty but minimally impacts flow structure.These findings enhance the understanding of tidal responses to geometric and topographic changes,providing valuable guidance for land reclamation projects and coastal management strategies.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.51379002the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China under contract Nos 3132016322 and 3132016314the Applied Basic Research Project Fund of the Chinese Ministry of Transport of China under contract No.2014329225010
文摘An efficient and accurate prediction of a precise tidal level in estuaries and coastal areas is indispensable for the management and decision-making of human activity in the field wok of marine engineering. The variation of the tidal level is a time-varying process. The time-varying factors including interference from the external environment that cause the change of tides are fairly complicated. Furthermore, tidal variations are affected not only by periodic movement of celestial bodies but also by time-varying interference from the external environment. Consequently, for the efficient and precise tidal level prediction, a neuro-fuzzy hybrid technology based on the combination of harmonic analysis and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system（ANFIS）model is utilized to construct a precise tidal level prediction system, which takes both advantages of the harmonic analysis method and the ANFIS network. The proposed prediction model is composed of two modules： the astronomical tide module caused by celestial bodies’ movement and the non-astronomical tide module caused by various meteorological and other environmental factors. To generate a fuzzy inference system（FIS） structure,three approaches which include grid partition（GP）, fuzzy c-means（FCM） and sub-clustering（SC） are used in the ANFIS network constructing process. Furthermore, to obtain the optimal ANFIS based prediction model, large numbers of simulation experiments are implemented for each FIS generating approach. In this tidal prediction study, the optimal ANFIS model is used to predict the non-astronomical tide module, while the conventional harmonic analysis model is used to predict the astronomical tide module. The final prediction result is performed by combining the estimation outputs of the harmonious analysis model and the optimal ANFIS model. To demonstrate the applicability and capability of the proposed novel prediction model, measured tidal level samples of Fort Pulaski tidal station are selected as the testing database. Simulation and experimental results confirm that the proposed prediction approach can achieve precise predictions for the tidal level with high accuracy, satisfactory convergence and stability.
基金sponsored by the Spark Program of Earthquake Technology of CEA in 2017(XH17026)Combination Project with Monitoring,Prediction and Scientific Research of Earthquake Technology,CEA(162205)
文摘In this paper,the long time series data of the well water-level data of 12 wells in the Sichuan and Yunnan area is analyzed by the Baytap-G tidal analysis software,and well water level tidal response characteristic parameters( amplitude ratio and phase change)are extracted. We analyzed the features of the shape and stage change,and characteristic parameters of the tidal response of well water level before and after the earthquakes,which can provide a new method and approach to analyzing the response relationships between well water level and earth tide and barometric pressure. The results show that Luguhu Well and 9 other wells are affected by earth tides,and their well water level amplitude ratios and phases are relatively stable; the Nanxi Well and Dayao Well water level changes are affected by the barometric pressure combined with tide force,and their well water level amplitude ratios and phases are more discrete. The water level amplitude ratios and phases of Jiangyou Well,Luguhu Well and Dongchuan Well are significant to large earthquakes,and the relationship between seismic energy density and water level amplitude ratios and phases of M_2 wave of the three wells are presented.
基金supported by Special Foundation of Earthquake Science(201408006)Director Foundation of Institute of Seismology,China Earthquake Administration(201516214)
文摘This work analyzes the quality of crustal tilt and strain observations during 2014, which were acquired from 269 sets of ground tiltmeters and 212 sets of strainmeters. In terms of data quality, the water tube tiltmeters presented the highest rate of excellent quality,approximately 91%, and the pendulum tiltmeters and ground strainmeters yielded rates of81% and 78%, respectively. This means that a total of 380 sets of instruments produced high-quality observational data suitable for scientific investigations and analyses.
