Having analyzed a global grid temperature anomaly data set and some sea level pressure data during the last century, we found the following facts. Firstly, the annual temperature change with a warming trend of about 0...Having analyzed a global grid temperature anomaly data set and some sea level pressure data during the last century, we found the following facts. Firstly, the annual temperature change with a warming trend of about 0.6°C/ 100 years in the tropical area over Indian to the western Pacific Oceans was most closely correlated to the global mean change. Therefore, the temperature change in this area might serve as an indi-cator of global mean change at annual and longer time scales. Secondly, a cooling of about -0.3°C/ 100 years occurred over the northern Atlantic. Thirdly, a two-wave pattern of temperature change, warming over northern Asia and northwestern America and cooling over the northern Atlantic and the northern Pa-cific, occurred during the last half century linked to strengthening westerlies over the northern Atlantic and the weakening Siberian High. Fourthly, a remarkable seasonal difference occurred over the Eurasian con-tinent, with cooling (warming) in winter (summer) during 1896–1945, and warming (cooling) in winter (summer) during 1946-1995. The corresponding variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the South-ern Oscillation were also discussed. Key words Temperature trend - Mann-Kendall’s Test - Significance - Regional difference - Correlation coefficient This study was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology Projects G1999043400 and Na-tional Key Project- “Studies on Short-Term Climate Prediction System in China” under Grant No.96-908-01-04.展开更多
This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean...This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean air temperature data over the period January 1970 to December 2013. The seasonal unit root test makes it possible to determine the stochastic trend of monthly temperatures using an autoregressive model. The test results showed that mean air temperature has increased by 0.169~ C （10 yr） - 1 over the past four decades. The model of monthly temperature obtained from the seasonal unit root analysis was able to explain 95.9% of the variance in the measured monthly data -- much higher than the variance explained by the ordinary least-squares model using annual mean air temperature data and other studies alike. The model accurately predicted monthly mean air temperatures between January 2014 and December 2015 with a root-mean-square percentage error of 4.2%. The correlation between the predicted and the measured monthly mean air temperatures was 0.989. By analyzing the monthly air temperatures recorded at an urban site and a rural site, it was found that the urban heat island effect led to the urban site being on average 0.865~C warmer than the rural site over the past two decades. Besides, the results of correlation analysis showed that the increase in annual mean air temperature was significantly associated with the increase in population, gross domestic product, urban land use, and energy use, with the R2 values ranging from 0.37 to 0.43.展开更多
Temperature in the Eastern China Seas(ECS), including the Bohai, Yellow, and East China seas, is crucially important with regard to weather forecasting and fishery activities of adjacent countries. Although sea surfac...Temperature in the Eastern China Seas(ECS), including the Bohai, Yellow, and East China seas, is crucially important with regard to weather forecasting and fishery activities of adjacent countries. Although sea surface temperature(SST) in the ECS has demonstrated a dramatically accelerated trend of warming after a regime shift(1976–1996), trends beneath the surface remain poorly understood because of the sparsity of observations. This study used in situ hydrographic data from 1976 to 1996 to examine upperocean temperature trends in the ECS. It was found that the multilevel trends show consistency with that of the surface water; i.e., warming is faster in winter than summer. However, the magnitudes of the trends weaken with increasing depth. Furthermore, the seasonal dif ference in the upper ocean is mainly associated with the warm currents in the ECS, which implies an essential contribution from horizontal advection. These phenomena could also be detected from data acquired from the routinely observed PN and 34°N sections. The spatiotemporal patterns of temperature trends in the upper ECS extend our understanding beyond the SST, especially highlighting the role of ocean dynamics in forming temperature patterns beneath the surface in comparison with atmospheric ef fects.展开更多
The study addresses an urgent and globally significant issue of climate change by focusing on the detailed spatial and temporal analysis of temperature trends in Northern Sudan. It fills a critical research gap by pro...The study addresses an urgent and globally significant issue of climate change by focusing on the detailed spatial and temporal analysis of temperature trends in Northern Sudan. It fills a critical research gap by providing localized data over a substantial period (1990-2019), which could help in understanding the nuanced impacts of climate change in Sahel regions like Northern Sudan. In addition, the comprehensive coverage of both spatial and temporal dimensions, supported by a substantial dataset from five meteorological stations, provides a thorough understanding of the subject area. The utilization of robust statistical methods (Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope analysis) for analyzing temperature trends adds scientific rigor and credibility to the findings. Our results reveal a consistently increasing trend in maximum temperatures across most stations, particularly during the hot season (AMJ). However, the wet season (JAS) shows high maximum temperatures but no significant trend. Moreover, significant increasing trends in minimum temperatures were observed in all stations except Abu Hamed, where the trend, although increasing, did not reach statistical significance during the hot and cold seasons, and the coldest temperatures were observed during the cold season. These findings underscore the complex temperature dynamics in Northern Sudan and highlight the need for continued monitoring and adaptive measures in response to ongoing climate changes in the region.展开更多
Marine heatwaves(MHWs)can cause irreversible damage to marine ecosystems and livelihoods.Appropriate MHW characterization remains difficult,because the choice of a sea surface temperature(SST)temporal baseline strongl...Marine heatwaves(MHWs)can cause irreversible damage to marine ecosystems and livelihoods.Appropriate MHW characterization remains difficult,because the choice of a sea surface temperature(SST)temporal baseline strongly influences MHW identification.Following a recent work suggesting that there should be a communicating baseline for long-term ocean temperature trends(LTT)and MHWs,we provided an effective and quantitative solution to calculate LTT and MHWs simultaneously by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method.The long-term nonlinear trend of SST obtained by EEMD shows superiority over the traditional linear trend in that the data extension does not alter prior results.The MHWs identified from the detrended SST data exhibited low sensitivity to the baseline choice,demonstrating the robustness of our method.We also derived the total heat exposure(THE)by combining LTT and MHWs.The THE was sensitive to the fixed-period baseline choice,with a response to increasing SST that depended on the onset time of a perpetual MHW state(identified MHW days equal to the year length).Subtropical areas,the Indian Ocean,and part of the Southern Ocean were most sensitive to the long-term global warming trend.展开更多
Extreme temperature events have intensified across Jordan over the past 40 a,increasing risks to agriculture,water availability,urban infrastructure,and public health.The purpose of this study is to assess the long-te...Extreme temperature events have intensified across Jordan over the past 40 a,increasing risks to agriculture,water availability,urban infrastructure,and public health.The purpose of this study is to assess the long-term spatial trends and regime shifts in extreme temperature indicators across Jordan's climate zones to explore climate adaptation strategies.This study presents a high-resolution and spatially explicit assessment of thermal extremes using daily data from 1982 to 2024 across 45 grid-based study points in Jordan.Thirteen temperature indices,including percentile-based thresholds,duration metrics,and absolute extremes,were computed using RClimDex and analyzed across four Köppen climate zones:hot desert(BWh),hot semi-arid(BSh),cold desert(BWk),and Mediterranean(Csa)climates.The analysis confirmed a statistically significant warming trend:annual mean maximum temperatures increased by 2.198°C,while annual mean minimum temperatures rose by 2.035°C.Cold extremes have sharply declined,with cold days(TX10p)decreasing by 70.0%–80.0%,and the cold spell duration indicator(CSDI)dropping from 12.6 to 4.0 d/a,particularly in the BWk zone.Heat indices intensified across all zones,with warm days(TX90p)increasing by over 300.0%in BWh,warm nights(TN90p)rising by 38.1%,and the warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)extending fourfold,indicating prolonged exposure to heatwaves.Mean value of maximum temperature(TXx)reached 45.600°C in most arid areas,while minimum temperature(TNx)exceeded 31.600°C,highlighting increased nocturnal heat stress.Change-point analysis indicated that 1998 was a pivotal year,marking a structural transition in both cold and warm temperature indices.Subsequent intensifications after 2010 in TN90p,TNx,and mean of daily maximum temperature(Tmaxmean)reflected an ongoing trend toward sustained thermal extremes.In addition to time-series trends,the study employed network-based correlation analysis to explore the coherence among climate indices.Strong positive correlations were observed among TXx,TX90p,and mean of daily minimum temperature(Tminmean)(r≥0.94),as well as among TN90p,Tminmean,and TNx(r≥0.87),indicating a tightly clustered heat subsystem.Duration metrics like the WSDI showed a close alignment with percentile extremes(between WSDI and TX90p;r=0.88),suggesting integrated heatwave behavior.In contrast,cold indices(TX10p,TN90p,frost days,and CSDI)exhibited weak or negative correlations and displayed peripheral positioning in the climate network,indicating their limited role under a warming regime.Absolute extremes showed weak internal linkages,suggesting episodic rather than systemic response characteristics.This structural realignment indicated a shift from a previously balanced thermal profile to a heat-dominated climate system.Regional variations revealed that BWh and BSh were experiencing the steepest warming,while Csa was transitioning more slowly but was showing signs of reduced winter cooling and increased irrigation demands.The findings establish a robust climate baseline for Jordan and offer actionable insights for climate adaptation planning.Recommended measures include precision irrigation,the development of heat-resilient crops,improvements to urban cooling infrastructure,and early warning systems for thermal extremes.By integrating spatial climate zoning,regime shift analysis,and inter-index correlation structures,this study provides a replicable framework for monitoring climatic transformations and informing resilience strategies in arid and semi-arid areas.展开更多
Studying the causes of summer(June–July–August)precipitation anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLYR)and accurately predicting rainy season precipitation are important to society and the ...Studying the causes of summer(June–July–August)precipitation anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLYR)and accurately predicting rainy season precipitation are important to society and the economy.In recent years,the sea surface temperature(SST)trend factor has been used to construct regression models for summer precipitation.In this study,through correlation analysis,winter SST anomaly predictors and the winter Central Pacific SST trend predictor(CPT)are identified as closely related to the following MLYR summer precipitation(YRSP).CPT can influence YRSP by inducing anomalous circulations over the North Pacific,guiding warm and moist air northward,and inhibiting the development of the anomalous anticyclone over the Northwest Pacific.This has improved the predictive skill of the seasonal regression model for YRSP.After incorporating the CPT,the correlation coefficient of the YRSP regression model improved by 40%,increasing from 0.45 to 0.63,and the root mean squared error decreased by 22%,from 1.15 to 0.90.展开更多
In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized ...In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 731 meteorological stations across China for the period 1951-2004.Uncertainties of the gridded data and national average,linear trends and their uncertainties,as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are assessed.It is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin,which are larger in winter than in summer,have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution,while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and irregular.Tmax and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2004,with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.400℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.269℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.578℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.211℃ （10 yr）-1 in February,and the least being 0.022℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.085℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.104℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋0.070℃ （10 yr）-1 in August.Homogenization can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China.展开更多
The diurnal temperature range(DTR) has decreased dramatically in recent decades, but it is not yet obvious whether the extreme values of DTR have also reduced. Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data o...The diurnal temperature range(DTR) has decreased dramatically in recent decades, but it is not yet obvious whether the extreme values of DTR have also reduced. Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 653 stations in China, a set of monthly indices of warm extremes, cold extremes, and DTR extremes in summer(June, July, August) and winter(December, January, February) were studied for spatial and temporal features during the period 1971–2013. Results show that the incidence of warm extremes has been increasing in most parts of China, while the opposite trend was found in the cold extremes for summer and winter months. Both increasing and decreasing trends of monthly DTR extremes were identified in China for both seasons. For high DTR extremes, decreasing trends were identified in northern China for both seasons, but increasing trends were found only in southern China in summer, while in winter, they were found in central China. Monthly low DTR extreme indices demonstrated consistent positive trends in summer and winter, while significant increases(P < 0.05) were identified for only a few stations.展开更多
The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and pre...The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.展开更多
The temperature trend near the stratopause is rarely evaluated owing to the limited long-term observations of global temperature. In this study, the spatial patterns of the temperature trends near the northern stratop...The temperature trend near the stratopause is rarely evaluated owing to the limited long-term observations of global temperature. In this study, the spatial patterns of the temperature trends near the northern stratopause are investigated by using satellite and reanalysis datasets. Our analysis reveals a zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern near the northern mid-to-high latitude stratopause during January, and this pattern underwent an evident transition around the 2000s. From 1980 to 2003, there was a cooling trend in the Western Hemisphere and a warming trend in the Eastern Hemisphere. In contrast, a reversed zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern existed in the east–west direction from 2003 to 2020. Although the warming trends are statistically insignificant, they contrasted with the overall cooling trend in the upper stratosphere due to ozone depletion and an increase in well-mixed greenhouse gases in recent decades. The zonally asymmetric temperature trends were induced by the transition in the intensity of quasi-stationary planetary wavenumber 1(wave 1) near the stratopause. The increasing(decreasing) trend of the intensity of wave 1 enhanced(weakened) its meridional temperature advection near the stratopause before(after) the 2000s;consequently, a zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern exists in the east–west direction near the stratopause. The transition in the intensity of the stratospheric wave 1 around the 2000s is most likely caused by the transition in the intensity of wave 1 activity in the troposphere.展开更多
Air temperature in the European Alps shows warming over recent decades at an average rate of 0.3℃/10 years,therebyoutpacing the global warming rate of 0.2℃/10 years.The periglacial environment of the Alps is particu...Air temperature in the European Alps shows warming over recent decades at an average rate of 0.3℃/10 years,therebyoutpacing the global warming rate of 0.2℃/10 years.The periglacial environment of the Alps is particularly important for several aspects(i.e.hydropower production,tourism,natural hazards,indicator of global warming).However,there is a lack of specific and updated studies relating to temperature change in this environment.In order to fill this gap,the recent temperature trends in the periglacial environment of the Alps were analyzed.Mean/maximum/minimum daily air temperatures recorded by 14 land-based meteorological stations were used,and the temperature indices for the period 1990-2019 were calculated.The periglacial environment of the Alps showed a warming rate of 0.4℃/10 years,0.6℃/10 years and 0.8℃/10 years for the mean/maximum/minimum temperatures,respectively.These warming rates are higher than that observed for the entire Alpine area.In 2050 many glaciers of the Alps below 3000 m altitude are expected to be extinct,and all the areas previously occupied by glaciers will become periglacial.In order to manage and adapt to these changes,more in-depth climate analyses are needed.This is necessary for all the mountainous areas of the world,which are undergoing similar changes.展开更多
Understanding trends in rainfall and temperature projections is critical for assessing climate change impacts,managing water resources,mitigating disaster risks,and guiding sustainable agricultural and infrastructure ...Understanding trends in rainfall and temperature projections is critical for assessing climate change impacts,managing water resources,mitigating disaster risks,and guiding sustainable agricultural and infrastructure planning.This study investigates projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the Upper Bernam River Basin(UBRB),Malaysia,using ten Global Climate Models(GCMs)from CMIP6 across four scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585).Downscaling was conducted with the Climate-Smart Decision Support System(CSDSS)for the baseline period(1985-2014)and for future periods:2020s,2040s,2060s,and 2080s.Results indicate a consistent warming trend,with maximum temperatures projected to increase from 1.4℃(2020s,SSP126)to 4.66℃(2080s,SSP585),and minimum temperatures from 1.97℃ to 5.70℃ over the same period and scenarios.Rainfall projections reveal high variability and inter-scenario uncertainty,with average monthly rainfall changes ranging from−17.6%(2020s,SSP585)to+6.6%(2080s,SSP370).Extremes analysis shows intensifying wet and dry spells,with 95th percentile rainfall rising to 7.87% and significant increases in 90th percentile temperatures,reaching nearly 20%under SSP585 by 2080s.Seasonal shifts include reduced rainfall from January to April and potential increases in main-season(July-August)flooding.These findings highlight the importance of adaptive strategies such as flood control,off-season(January-June)water storage,and climate-resilient infrastructure.The study underscores inter-scenario uncertainties and provides critical insights for climate-resilient water resource planning and disaster risk mitigation in UBRB.展开更多
In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation r...In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation reanalysis product ERA-Interim in the period of 1979-2010. High correlations ranging from 0.973 to 0.999 indicate that ERA-Interim could capture the annual cycle very well. However, an average root-meansquare error(rmse) of 3.7°C for all stations reveals that ERA-Interim could not be applied directly for the individual sites. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA-Interim grid points and stations. An elevation correction method based on monthly lapse rates is limited to reduce the bias for all stations. Generally, ERA-Interim captured the Plateau-Wide annual and seasonal climatologies very well. The spatial variance is highly related to the topographic features of the TP. The temperature increases significantly(10°C- 15°C) from the western to the eastern Tibetan Plateau for all seasons, in particular during winter and summer. A significant warming trend(0.49°C/decade) is found over the entire Tibetan Plateau using station time series from 1979-2010. ERA-Interim captures the annual warming trend with an increase rate of 0.33°C /decade very well. The observation data and ERA-Interim data both showed the largest warming trends in winter with values of 0.67°C/decade and 0.41°C/decade, respectively. We conclude that in general ERA-Interim captures the temperature trends very well and ERA-Interim is reliable for climate change investigation over the Tibetan Plateau under the premise of cautious interpretation.展开更多
Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemis...Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere （NH） and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere （SH） are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900-1944 and 1971-2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945-1970 and 2001-2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945-1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period （2001-2013）, the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006-2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble （MME） projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 （RCP8.5） are 0.17 （0.29） ℃, 0.22 （0.36） ℃, and 0.11 （0.23） ℃-decade-1 in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model selection.展开更多
This paper presents a detailed account of the effect of shipping activity on the increasing trends of air temperatures in the Canadian Arctic region for the period of 1980–2018.Increasing trend of temperature has gai...This paper presents a detailed account of the effect of shipping activity on the increasing trends of air temperatures in the Canadian Arctic region for the period of 1980–2018.Increasing trend of temperature has gained significant attention with respect to shipping activities and sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic.Temperature,sea ice area and shipping traffic datasets were investigated,and simple linear regression analyses were conducted to predict the rate of change(per decade)of the average temperature,considering winter(January)and summer(July)seasons.The results indicate that temperature generally increased over the studied region.Significant warming trend was observed during July,with an increase of up to 1℃,for the Canadian Arctic region.Such increasing trend of temperature was observed during July from the lower to higher latitudes.The increase in temperature during July is speculated to increase the melting of ice.Results also show a decline in sea ice area has a significant positive effect on the shipping traffic,and the numbers of marine vessel continue to increase in the region.The increase in temperature causes the breaking of sea ice due to shipping activities over northern Arctic Canada.展开更多
Alps are an important geographical area of the European continent and,in this area,temperature increase is most evident.However,the 1991-2020 climate normal in the Alps has still not been thoroughly investigated.Aimin...Alps are an important geographical area of the European continent and,in this area,temperature increase is most evident.However,the 1991-2020 climate normal in the Alps has still not been thoroughly investigated.Aiming to fill this gap with a focus on high-elevation environments,minimum and maximum daily air temperature acquired by 23 automatic weather station were used.The results show that the mean annual values of minimum and maximum temperature for the 1991-2020 climate normal in the Alps are-2.4℃ and 4.4℃,respectively,with a warming rate of 0.5℃/10 years.The mean annual temperature comparison between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000,1961-1990 and 1981-2010,1961-1990 and 1991-2020 climate normal show an increase of 0.3℃,0.5℃ and 0.9℃,respectively.The results also confirm that seasonal and annual temperatures are rising through the whole Alpine arc,mainly in summer and autumn.This work highlights that annual minimum and maximum temperature do not seem to be affected by a positive elevation-dependent warming.Instead,a positive elevation-dependent warming in the maximum values of the annual minimum temperature was found.If anthropogenic emissions maintain the trend of the last decades,the expected mean annual temperature of the 2001-2030 climate normal is-0.2℃,with an increase of 0.5℃ if compared to the 1991-2020 climate normal and with an increase of 1.5℃ if compared to the 1961-1990 climate normal.This study highlights the warming rate that is now present in the European Alps,provides indications on the warming rate that will occur in the coming years and highlights the importance of carrying out investigations that consider not only the last 30-year climate normal,but also the most recent 30-year climate normal by comparing them with each other.展开更多
The present work investigates possible impact of the non-uniformity in observed land surface temperature on trend estimation, based on Climatic Research Unit （CRU） Temperature Version 4 （CRUTEM4） monthly temperatu...The present work investigates possible impact of the non-uniformity in observed land surface temperature on trend estimation, based on Climatic Research Unit （CRU） Temperature Version 4 （CRUTEM4） monthly temperature data-sets from 1900 to 2012. The CRU land temperature data exhibit remarkable non-uniformity in spatial and temporal features. The data are characterized by an uneven spatial distribution of missing records and station density, and dis-play a significant increase of available sites around 1950. Considering the impact of missing data, the trends seem to be more stable and reliable when estimated based on data with 〈 40% missing percent, compared to the data with above 40% missing percent. Mean absolute error （MAE） between data with 〈 40% missing percent and global data is only 0.011℃ （0.014℃） for 1900-50 （1951-2012）. The associated trend estimated by reliable data is 0.087℃ decade^-1 （0.186℃ decade^-l） for 1900-50 （1951-2012）, almost the same as the trend of the global data. However, due to non-uniform spatial distribution of missing data, the global signal seems mainly coming from the regions with good data coverage, especially for the period 1900-50. This is also confirmed by an extreme test conducted with the records in the United States and Africa. In addition, the influences of spatial and temporal non-uniform features in observation data on trend estimation are significant for the areas with poor data coverage, such as Africa, while insig-nificant for the countries with good data coverage, such as the United States.展开更多
Temperature trends in the upper stratosphere are investigated using satellite measurements from Stratospheric Sounding Unit(SSU)outputs and simulations from chemistry-climate models(CCMs)and the Coupled Model Intercom...Temperature trends in the upper stratosphere are investigated using satellite measurements from Stratospheric Sounding Unit(SSU)outputs and simulations from chemistry-climate models(CCMs)and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Observational evidence shows a lack of cooling in the Antarctic,in contrast to strong cooling at other latitudes,during austral winter over 1979-97.Analysis of CCM simulations for a longer period of1961-97 also shows a significant contrast in the upper stratospheric temperature trends between the Antarctic and lower latitudes.Results from two sets of model integrations with fixed ozone-depleting substances(ODSs)and fixed greenhouse gases(GHGs)at their 1960 levels suggest that the ODSs have made a major contribution to the lack of cooling in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.Results from CMIP6 simulations with prescribed GHGs and ozone confirm that changes in the dynamical processes associated with observed ozone depletion are largely responsible for the lack of cooling in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.The lack of cooling is found to be dynamically induced through increased upward wave activity into the upper stratosphere,which is attributed mainly to ODSs forcing.Specifically,the radiative cooling caused by the ozone depletion results in a stronger meridional temperature gradient between middle and high latitudes in the upper stratosphere,allowing more planetary waves propagating upward to warm the Antarctic upper stratosphere.These findings improve our understanding of the chemistry-climate coupling in the southern upper stratosphere.展开更多
This study analyzes the ability of statistical downscaling models in simulating the long-term trend of temperature and associated causes at 48 stations in northern China in January and July 1961-2006. The statistical ...This study analyzes the ability of statistical downscaling models in simulating the long-term trend of temperature and associated causes at 48 stations in northern China in January and July 1961-2006. The statistical downscaling models are established through multiple stepwise regressions of predictor principal components （PCs）. The predictors in this study include temperature at 850 hPa （T850）, and the combination of geopotential height and temperature at 850 hPa （H850＋T850）. For the combined predictors, Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis of the two combined fields is conducted. The modeling results from HadCM3 and ECHAM5 under 20C3M and SERS A1B scenarios are applied to the statistical downscaling models to construct local present and future climate change scenarios for each station, during which the projected EOF analysis and the common EOF analysis are utilized to derive EOFs and PCs from the two general circulation models （GCMs）. The results show that （1） the trend of temperature in July is associated with the first EOF pattern of the two combined fields, not with the EOF pattern of the regional warming; （2） although HadCM3 and ECHAM5 have simulated a false long-term trend of temperature, the statistical downscaling method is able to well reproduce a correct long-term trend of temperature in northern China due to the successful simulation of the trend of main PCs of the GCM predictors; （3） when the two-field combination and the projected EOF analysis are used, temperature change scenarios have a similar seasonal variation to the observed one; and （4） compared with the results of the common EOF analysis, those of the projected EOF analysis have been much more strongly determined by the observed large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.展开更多
基金This study was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology Projects O 1999043400 National Key Project-Studies on Sh
文摘Having analyzed a global grid temperature anomaly data set and some sea level pressure data during the last century, we found the following facts. Firstly, the annual temperature change with a warming trend of about 0.6°C/ 100 years in the tropical area over Indian to the western Pacific Oceans was most closely correlated to the global mean change. Therefore, the temperature change in this area might serve as an indi-cator of global mean change at annual and longer time scales. Secondly, a cooling of about -0.3°C/ 100 years occurred over the northern Atlantic. Thirdly, a two-wave pattern of temperature change, warming over northern Asia and northwestern America and cooling over the northern Atlantic and the northern Pa-cific, occurred during the last half century linked to strengthening westerlies over the northern Atlantic and the weakening Siberian High. Fourthly, a remarkable seasonal difference occurred over the Eurasian con-tinent, with cooling (warming) in winter (summer) during 1896–1945, and warming (cooling) in winter (summer) during 1946-1995. The corresponding variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the South-ern Oscillation were also discussed. Key words Temperature trend - Mann-Kendall’s Test - Significance - Regional difference - Correlation coefficient This study was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology Projects G1999043400 and Na-tional Key Project- “Studies on Short-Term Climate Prediction System in China” under Grant No.96-908-01-04.
文摘This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean air temperature data over the period January 1970 to December 2013. The seasonal unit root test makes it possible to determine the stochastic trend of monthly temperatures using an autoregressive model. The test results showed that mean air temperature has increased by 0.169~ C （10 yr） - 1 over the past four decades. The model of monthly temperature obtained from the seasonal unit root analysis was able to explain 95.9% of the variance in the measured monthly data -- much higher than the variance explained by the ordinary least-squares model using annual mean air temperature data and other studies alike. The model accurately predicted monthly mean air temperatures between January 2014 and December 2015 with a root-mean-square percentage error of 4.2%. The correlation between the predicted and the measured monthly mean air temperatures was 0.989. By analyzing the monthly air temperatures recorded at an urban site and a rural site, it was found that the urban heat island effect led to the urban site being on average 0.865~C warmer than the rural site over the past two decades. Besides, the results of correlation analysis showed that the increase in annual mean air temperature was significantly associated with the increase in population, gross domestic product, urban land use, and energy use, with the R2 values ranging from 0.37 to 0.43.
基金Supported by the China’s National Key Research and Development Projects(No.2016YFA0601803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41490641,41521091,U1606402)the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(No.2015ASKJ01)
文摘Temperature in the Eastern China Seas(ECS), including the Bohai, Yellow, and East China seas, is crucially important with regard to weather forecasting and fishery activities of adjacent countries. Although sea surface temperature(SST) in the ECS has demonstrated a dramatically accelerated trend of warming after a regime shift(1976–1996), trends beneath the surface remain poorly understood because of the sparsity of observations. This study used in situ hydrographic data from 1976 to 1996 to examine upperocean temperature trends in the ECS. It was found that the multilevel trends show consistency with that of the surface water; i.e., warming is faster in winter than summer. However, the magnitudes of the trends weaken with increasing depth. Furthermore, the seasonal dif ference in the upper ocean is mainly associated with the warm currents in the ECS, which implies an essential contribution from horizontal advection. These phenomena could also be detected from data acquired from the routinely observed PN and 34°N sections. The spatiotemporal patterns of temperature trends in the upper ECS extend our understanding beyond the SST, especially highlighting the role of ocean dynamics in forming temperature patterns beneath the surface in comparison with atmospheric ef fects.
文摘The study addresses an urgent and globally significant issue of climate change by focusing on the detailed spatial and temporal analysis of temperature trends in Northern Sudan. It fills a critical research gap by providing localized data over a substantial period (1990-2019), which could help in understanding the nuanced impacts of climate change in Sahel regions like Northern Sudan. In addition, the comprehensive coverage of both spatial and temporal dimensions, supported by a substantial dataset from five meteorological stations, provides a thorough understanding of the subject area. The utilization of robust statistical methods (Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope analysis) for analyzing temperature trends adds scientific rigor and credibility to the findings. Our results reveal a consistently increasing trend in maximum temperatures across most stations, particularly during the hot season (AMJ). However, the wet season (JAS) shows high maximum temperatures but no significant trend. Moreover, significant increasing trends in minimum temperatures were observed in all stations except Abu Hamed, where the trend, although increasing, did not reach statistical significance during the hot and cold seasons, and the coldest temperatures were observed during the cold season. These findings underscore the complex temperature dynamics in Northern Sudan and highlight the need for continued monitoring and adaptive measures in response to ongoing climate changes in the region.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41821004,42276025)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2021MD027)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFE0140500)the Project of“Development of China-ASEAN blue partnership”started in 2021.
文摘Marine heatwaves(MHWs)can cause irreversible damage to marine ecosystems and livelihoods.Appropriate MHW characterization remains difficult,because the choice of a sea surface temperature(SST)temporal baseline strongly influences MHW identification.Following a recent work suggesting that there should be a communicating baseline for long-term ocean temperature trends(LTT)and MHWs,we provided an effective and quantitative solution to calculate LTT and MHWs simultaneously by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method.The long-term nonlinear trend of SST obtained by EEMD shows superiority over the traditional linear trend in that the data extension does not alter prior results.The MHWs identified from the detrended SST data exhibited low sensitivity to the baseline choice,demonstrating the robustness of our method.We also derived the total heat exposure(THE)by combining LTT and MHWs.The THE was sensitive to the fixed-period baseline choice,with a response to increasing SST that depended on the onset time of a perpetual MHW state(identified MHW days equal to the year length).Subtropical areas,the Indian Ocean,and part of the Southern Ocean were most sensitive to the long-term global warming trend.
文摘Extreme temperature events have intensified across Jordan over the past 40 a,increasing risks to agriculture,water availability,urban infrastructure,and public health.The purpose of this study is to assess the long-term spatial trends and regime shifts in extreme temperature indicators across Jordan's climate zones to explore climate adaptation strategies.This study presents a high-resolution and spatially explicit assessment of thermal extremes using daily data from 1982 to 2024 across 45 grid-based study points in Jordan.Thirteen temperature indices,including percentile-based thresholds,duration metrics,and absolute extremes,were computed using RClimDex and analyzed across four Köppen climate zones:hot desert(BWh),hot semi-arid(BSh),cold desert(BWk),and Mediterranean(Csa)climates.The analysis confirmed a statistically significant warming trend:annual mean maximum temperatures increased by 2.198°C,while annual mean minimum temperatures rose by 2.035°C.Cold extremes have sharply declined,with cold days(TX10p)decreasing by 70.0%–80.0%,and the cold spell duration indicator(CSDI)dropping from 12.6 to 4.0 d/a,particularly in the BWk zone.Heat indices intensified across all zones,with warm days(TX90p)increasing by over 300.0%in BWh,warm nights(TN90p)rising by 38.1%,and the warm spell duration indicator(WSDI)extending fourfold,indicating prolonged exposure to heatwaves.Mean value of maximum temperature(TXx)reached 45.600°C in most arid areas,while minimum temperature(TNx)exceeded 31.600°C,highlighting increased nocturnal heat stress.Change-point analysis indicated that 1998 was a pivotal year,marking a structural transition in both cold and warm temperature indices.Subsequent intensifications after 2010 in TN90p,TNx,and mean of daily maximum temperature(Tmaxmean)reflected an ongoing trend toward sustained thermal extremes.In addition to time-series trends,the study employed network-based correlation analysis to explore the coherence among climate indices.Strong positive correlations were observed among TXx,TX90p,and mean of daily minimum temperature(Tminmean)(r≥0.94),as well as among TN90p,Tminmean,and TNx(r≥0.87),indicating a tightly clustered heat subsystem.Duration metrics like the WSDI showed a close alignment with percentile extremes(between WSDI and TX90p;r=0.88),suggesting integrated heatwave behavior.In contrast,cold indices(TX10p,TN90p,frost days,and CSDI)exhibited weak or negative correlations and displayed peripheral positioning in the climate network,indicating their limited role under a warming regime.Absolute extremes showed weak internal linkages,suggesting episodic rather than systemic response characteristics.This structural realignment indicated a shift from a previously balanced thermal profile to a heat-dominated climate system.Regional variations revealed that BWh and BSh were experiencing the steepest warming,while Csa was transitioning more slowly but was showing signs of reduced winter cooling and increased irrigation demands.The findings establish a robust climate baseline for Jordan and offer actionable insights for climate adaptation planning.Recommended measures include precision irrigation,the development of heat-resilient crops,improvements to urban cooling infrastructure,and early warning systems for thermal extremes.By integrating spatial climate zoning,regime shift analysis,and inter-index correlation structures,this study provides a replicable framework for monitoring climatic transformations and informing resilience strategies in arid and semi-arid areas.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175061)。
文摘Studying the causes of summer(June–July–August)precipitation anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLYR)and accurately predicting rainy season precipitation are important to society and the economy.In recent years,the sea surface temperature(SST)trend factor has been used to construct regression models for summer precipitation.In this study,through correlation analysis,winter SST anomaly predictors and the winter Central Pacific SST trend predictor(CPT)are identified as closely related to the following MLYR summer precipitation(YRSP).CPT can influence YRSP by inducing anomalous circulations over the North Pacific,guiding warm and moist air northward,and inhibiting the development of the anomalous anticyclone over the Northwest Pacific.This has improved the predictive skill of the seasonal regression model for YRSP.After incorporating the CPT,the correlation coefficient of the YRSP regression model improved by 40%,increasing from 0.45 to 0.63,and the root mean squared error decreased by 22%,from 1.15 to 0.90.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41130103)the 973 Program (Grant Nos. 2009CB421406 and 2012CB955401)+1 种基金the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant No. EL133E09SE4048)the US National Science Foundation (Grant Nos. AGS-1015926 and AGS-1015957)
文摘In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 731 meteorological stations across China for the period 1951-2004.Uncertainties of the gridded data and national average,linear trends and their uncertainties,as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are assessed.It is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin,which are larger in winter than in summer,have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution,while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and irregular.Tmax and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2004,with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.400℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.269℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.578℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.211℃ （10 yr）-1 in February,and the least being 0.022℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.085℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.104℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋0.070℃ （10 yr）-1 in August.Homogenization can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China.
基金financially supported by the National Basic Research Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2011CB952001 and 2012CB95570001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41301076)
文摘The diurnal temperature range(DTR) has decreased dramatically in recent decades, but it is not yet obvious whether the extreme values of DTR have also reduced. Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature data of 653 stations in China, a set of monthly indices of warm extremes, cold extremes, and DTR extremes in summer(June, July, August) and winter(December, January, February) were studied for spatial and temporal features during the period 1971–2013. Results show that the incidence of warm extremes has been increasing in most parts of China, while the opposite trend was found in the cold extremes for summer and winter months. Both increasing and decreasing trends of monthly DTR extremes were identified in China for both seasons. For high DTR extremes, decreasing trends were identified in northern China for both seasons, but increasing trends were found only in southern China in summer, while in winter, they were found in central China. Monthly low DTR extreme indices demonstrated consistent positive trends in summer and winter, while significant increases(P < 0.05) were identified for only a few stations.
文摘The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42130601 and 42142038)。
文摘The temperature trend near the stratopause is rarely evaluated owing to the limited long-term observations of global temperature. In this study, the spatial patterns of the temperature trends near the northern stratopause are investigated by using satellite and reanalysis datasets. Our analysis reveals a zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern near the northern mid-to-high latitude stratopause during January, and this pattern underwent an evident transition around the 2000s. From 1980 to 2003, there was a cooling trend in the Western Hemisphere and a warming trend in the Eastern Hemisphere. In contrast, a reversed zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern existed in the east–west direction from 2003 to 2020. Although the warming trends are statistically insignificant, they contrasted with the overall cooling trend in the upper stratosphere due to ozone depletion and an increase in well-mixed greenhouse gases in recent decades. The zonally asymmetric temperature trends were induced by the transition in the intensity of quasi-stationary planetary wavenumber 1(wave 1) near the stratopause. The increasing(decreasing) trend of the intensity of wave 1 enhanced(weakened) its meridional temperature advection near the stratopause before(after) the 2000s;consequently, a zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern exists in the east–west direction near the stratopause. The transition in the intensity of the stratospheric wave 1 around the 2000s is most likely caused by the transition in the intensity of wave 1 activity in the troposphere.
基金This work was carried out in the framework of the RiST2 Project,co-financed by“Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Torino”.
文摘Air temperature in the European Alps shows warming over recent decades at an average rate of 0.3℃/10 years,therebyoutpacing the global warming rate of 0.2℃/10 years.The periglacial environment of the Alps is particularly important for several aspects(i.e.hydropower production,tourism,natural hazards,indicator of global warming).However,there is a lack of specific and updated studies relating to temperature change in this environment.In order to fill this gap,the recent temperature trends in the periglacial environment of the Alps were analyzed.Mean/maximum/minimum daily air temperatures recorded by 14 land-based meteorological stations were used,and the temperature indices for the period 1990-2019 were calculated.The periglacial environment of the Alps showed a warming rate of 0.4℃/10 years,0.6℃/10 years and 0.8℃/10 years for the mean/maximum/minimum temperatures,respectively.These warming rates are higher than that observed for the entire Alpine area.In 2050 many glaciers of the Alps below 3000 m altitude are expected to be extinct,and all the areas previously occupied by glaciers will become periglacial.In order to manage and adapt to these changes,more in-depth climate analyses are needed.This is necessary for all the mountainous areas of the world,which are undergoing similar changes.
基金funded by the Petroleum Technology Development Fund(PTDF),the Federal Republic of Nigeria(Grant No.PTDF/ED/OSS/PHD/MDZ/1726/20).
文摘Understanding trends in rainfall and temperature projections is critical for assessing climate change impacts,managing water resources,mitigating disaster risks,and guiding sustainable agricultural and infrastructure planning.This study investigates projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the Upper Bernam River Basin(UBRB),Malaysia,using ten Global Climate Models(GCMs)from CMIP6 across four scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585).Downscaling was conducted with the Climate-Smart Decision Support System(CSDSS)for the baseline period(1985-2014)and for future periods:2020s,2040s,2060s,and 2080s.Results indicate a consistent warming trend,with maximum temperatures projected to increase from 1.4℃(2020s,SSP126)to 4.66℃(2080s,SSP585),and minimum temperatures from 1.97℃ to 5.70℃ over the same period and scenarios.Rainfall projections reveal high variability and inter-scenario uncertainty,with average monthly rainfall changes ranging from−17.6%(2020s,SSP585)to+6.6%(2080s,SSP370).Extremes analysis shows intensifying wet and dry spells,with 95th percentile rainfall rising to 7.87% and significant increases in 90th percentile temperatures,reaching nearly 20%under SSP585 by 2080s.Seasonal shifts include reduced rainfall from January to April and potential increases in main-season(July-August)flooding.These findings highlight the importance of adaptive strategies such as flood control,off-season(January-June)water storage,and climate-resilient infrastructure.The study underscores inter-scenario uncertainties and provides critical insights for climate-resilient water resource planning and disaster risk mitigation in UBRB.
基金funded by Fujian Bureau of Surveying,Mapping and Geoinformation(Grant No.2013S17)Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71373130)+2 种基金Non-Profit Research Projects of Fujian Province,China(Grant No2013R04)Key Project of the Department of Science and Technology of Fujian Province,China(Grant No.2012Y4001)supported by the ECMWF’s public web server(http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/)
文摘In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation reanalysis product ERA-Interim in the period of 1979-2010. High correlations ranging from 0.973 to 0.999 indicate that ERA-Interim could capture the annual cycle very well. However, an average root-meansquare error(rmse) of 3.7°C for all stations reveals that ERA-Interim could not be applied directly for the individual sites. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA-Interim grid points and stations. An elevation correction method based on monthly lapse rates is limited to reduce the bias for all stations. Generally, ERA-Interim captured the Plateau-Wide annual and seasonal climatologies very well. The spatial variance is highly related to the topographic features of the TP. The temperature increases significantly(10°C- 15°C) from the western to the eastern Tibetan Plateau for all seasons, in particular during winter and summer. A significant warming trend(0.49°C/decade) is found over the entire Tibetan Plateau using station time series from 1979-2010. ERA-Interim captures the annual warming trend with an increase rate of 0.33°C /decade very well. The observation data and ERA-Interim data both showed the largest warming trends in winter with values of 0.67°C/decade and 0.41°C/decade, respectively. We conclude that in general ERA-Interim captures the temperature trends very well and ERA-Interim is reliable for climate change investigation over the Tibetan Plateau under the premise of cautious interpretation.
基金This study was supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China （2016YFA0601801）, the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China （41530424）, National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interactions, State Oceanic Administration （SOA） （GASI-IPOVAI-03）, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China （41305121）. We sincerely thank two anonymous reviewers whose comments improved the paper.
文摘Based on observations and Coupled Model lntercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） results, multidecadal variations and trends in annual mean surface air temperature anomalies （SATa） at global, hemispheric, and hemispheric land and ocean scales in the past and under the future scenarios of two representative concentration pathways （RCPs） are analyzed. Fifteen models are selected based on their performances in capturing the temporal variability, long-term trend, multidecadal variations, and trends in global annual mean SATa. Observational data analysis shows that the multidecadal variations in annual mean SATa of the land and ocean in the northern hemisphere （NH） and of the ocean in the southern hemisphere （SH） are similar to those of the global mean, showing an increase during the 1900-1944 and 1971-2000 periods, and flattening or even cooling during the 1945-1970 and 2001-2013 periods. These observed characteristics are basically reproduced by the models. However, SATa over SH land show an increase during the 1945-1970 period, which differs from the other hemispheric scales, and this feature is not captured well by the models. For the recent hiatus period （2001-2013）, the projected trends of BCC-CSM1-1-m, CMCC-CM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-ME at the global and hemispheric scales are closest to the observations based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that these four models have better projection capability in SATa. Because these four models are better at simulating and projecting the multidecadal trends of SATa, they are selected to analyze future SATa variations at the global and hemispheric scales during the 2006-2099 period. The selected multi-model ensemble （MME） projected trends in annual mean SATa for the globe, NH, and SH under RCP4.5 （RCP8.5） are 0.17 （0.29） ℃, 0.22 （0.36） ℃, and 0.11 （0.23） ℃-decade-1 in the 21st century, respectively. These values are significantly lower than the projections of CMIP5 MME without model selection.
基金Korea Polar Research Institute(PE19900)Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF-2016S1A3A2924243)。
文摘This paper presents a detailed account of the effect of shipping activity on the increasing trends of air temperatures in the Canadian Arctic region for the period of 1980–2018.Increasing trend of temperature has gained significant attention with respect to shipping activities and sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic.Temperature,sea ice area and shipping traffic datasets were investigated,and simple linear regression analyses were conducted to predict the rate of change(per decade)of the average temperature,considering winter(January)and summer(July)seasons.The results indicate that temperature generally increased over the studied region.Significant warming trend was observed during July,with an increase of up to 1℃,for the Canadian Arctic region.Such increasing trend of temperature was observed during July from the lower to higher latitudes.The increase in temperature during July is speculated to increase the melting of ice.Results also show a decline in sea ice area has a significant positive effect on the shipping traffic,and the numbers of marine vessel continue to increase in the region.The increase in temperature causes the breaking of sea ice due to shipping activities over northern Arctic Canada.
基金the framework of the Gio Mon Project,co-financed by“Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Torino”。
文摘Alps are an important geographical area of the European continent and,in this area,temperature increase is most evident.However,the 1991-2020 climate normal in the Alps has still not been thoroughly investigated.Aiming to fill this gap with a focus on high-elevation environments,minimum and maximum daily air temperature acquired by 23 automatic weather station were used.The results show that the mean annual values of minimum and maximum temperature for the 1991-2020 climate normal in the Alps are-2.4℃ and 4.4℃,respectively,with a warming rate of 0.5℃/10 years.The mean annual temperature comparison between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000,1961-1990 and 1981-2010,1961-1990 and 1991-2020 climate normal show an increase of 0.3℃,0.5℃ and 0.9℃,respectively.The results also confirm that seasonal and annual temperatures are rising through the whole Alpine arc,mainly in summer and autumn.This work highlights that annual minimum and maximum temperature do not seem to be affected by a positive elevation-dependent warming.Instead,a positive elevation-dependent warming in the maximum values of the annual minimum temperature was found.If anthropogenic emissions maintain the trend of the last decades,the expected mean annual temperature of the 2001-2030 climate normal is-0.2℃,with an increase of 0.5℃ if compared to the 1991-2020 climate normal and with an increase of 1.5℃ if compared to the 1961-1990 climate normal.This study highlights the warming rate that is now present in the European Alps,provides indications on the warming rate that will occur in the coming years and highlights the importance of carrying out investigations that consider not only the last 30-year climate normal,but also the most recent 30-year climate normal by comparing them with each other.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41490643 and 41675073)Jiangsu Provincial "333 Talents" Project+2 种基金"Six Talents Highlands" ProjectPriority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province(KYLX16_0927)
文摘The present work investigates possible impact of the non-uniformity in observed land surface temperature on trend estimation, based on Climatic Research Unit （CRU） Temperature Version 4 （CRUTEM4） monthly temperature data-sets from 1900 to 2012. The CRU land temperature data exhibit remarkable non-uniformity in spatial and temporal features. The data are characterized by an uneven spatial distribution of missing records and station density, and dis-play a significant increase of available sites around 1950. Considering the impact of missing data, the trends seem to be more stable and reliable when estimated based on data with 〈 40% missing percent, compared to the data with above 40% missing percent. Mean absolute error （MAE） between data with 〈 40% missing percent and global data is only 0.011℃ （0.014℃） for 1900-50 （1951-2012）. The associated trend estimated by reliable data is 0.087℃ decade^-1 （0.186℃ decade^-l） for 1900-50 （1951-2012）, almost the same as the trend of the global data. However, due to non-uniform spatial distribution of missing data, the global signal seems mainly coming from the regions with good data coverage, especially for the period 1900-50. This is also confirmed by an extreme test conducted with the records in the United States and Africa. In addition, the influences of spatial and temporal non-uniform features in observation data on trend estimation are significant for the areas with poor data coverage, such as Africa, while insig-nificant for the countries with good data coverage, such as the United States.
基金supported by Grant Nos.41875047 and 91837206 from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)Grant No.JIH2308007 from Fudan University。
文摘Temperature trends in the upper stratosphere are investigated using satellite measurements from Stratospheric Sounding Unit(SSU)outputs and simulations from chemistry-climate models(CCMs)and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Observational evidence shows a lack of cooling in the Antarctic,in contrast to strong cooling at other latitudes,during austral winter over 1979-97.Analysis of CCM simulations for a longer period of1961-97 also shows a significant contrast in the upper stratospheric temperature trends between the Antarctic and lower latitudes.Results from two sets of model integrations with fixed ozone-depleting substances(ODSs)and fixed greenhouse gases(GHGs)at their 1960 levels suggest that the ODSs have made a major contribution to the lack of cooling in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.Results from CMIP6 simulations with prescribed GHGs and ozone confirm that changes in the dynamical processes associated with observed ozone depletion are largely responsible for the lack of cooling in the Antarctic upper stratosphere.The lack of cooling is found to be dynamically induced through increased upward wave activity into the upper stratosphere,which is attributed mainly to ODSs forcing.Specifically,the radiative cooling caused by the ozone depletion results in a stronger meridional temperature gradient between middle and high latitudes in the upper stratosphere,allowing more planetary waves propagating upward to warm the Antarctic upper stratosphere.These findings improve our understanding of the chemistry-climate coupling in the southern upper stratosphere.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(40705030)Knowledge Innovation Project(KZCX2-EW-202)Strategic Priority Research Program(XDA05090103)of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘This study analyzes the ability of statistical downscaling models in simulating the long-term trend of temperature and associated causes at 48 stations in northern China in January and July 1961-2006. The statistical downscaling models are established through multiple stepwise regressions of predictor principal components （PCs）. The predictors in this study include temperature at 850 hPa （T850）, and the combination of geopotential height and temperature at 850 hPa （H850＋T850）. For the combined predictors, Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） analysis of the two combined fields is conducted. The modeling results from HadCM3 and ECHAM5 under 20C3M and SERS A1B scenarios are applied to the statistical downscaling models to construct local present and future climate change scenarios for each station, during which the projected EOF analysis and the common EOF analysis are utilized to derive EOFs and PCs from the two general circulation models （GCMs）. The results show that （1） the trend of temperature in July is associated with the first EOF pattern of the two combined fields, not with the EOF pattern of the regional warming; （2） although HadCM3 and ECHAM5 have simulated a false long-term trend of temperature, the statistical downscaling method is able to well reproduce a correct long-term trend of temperature in northern China due to the successful simulation of the trend of main PCs of the GCM predictors; （3） when the two-field combination and the projected EOF analysis are used, temperature change scenarios have a similar seasonal variation to the observed one; and （4） compared with the results of the common EOF analysis, those of the projected EOF analysis have been much more strongly determined by the observed large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.
