Analyzing the changes in agricultural carbon emissions(ACE)and their influencing factors can provide a sound basis for accurately estimating the carbon balance of agroecosystems.Such analyses can serve as a reference ...Analyzing the changes in agricultural carbon emissions(ACE)and their influencing factors can provide a sound basis for accurately estimating the carbon balance of agroecosystems.Such analyses can serve as a reference for developing policies to mitigate global climate change and promote sustainable agricultural development.Using the carbon emission calculation framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,this study examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of ACE,including total amount,intensity,structure and their influencing factors,in Fujian Province from 2002 to 2022.The logarithmic mean scale index model and Tapio decoupling model were used,with the GM(1,1)model to forecast carbon emissions from 2023 to 2040.The results indicate that both the total emissions and intensity of ACE had fluctuating downward trends and agricultural material inputs were the largest contributors to ACE.Additionally,total ACE was found to have a spatial pattern higher in the west and lower in the east and agricultural production efficiency was the primary factor in reducing ACE.ACE was clearly decoupled from economic development and is projected to continually decline after2023.展开更多
基金supported by the Humanities and Social Sciences Program of the Ministry of Education(21YJCZH006)the Water Conservancy Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province(MSK202435)the horizontal commissioned project of the Soil and Water Conservation Experimental Station of Fujian Province(Construction of SWAT Model for Soil Erosion Control in Typical Eco-clean Sub-watersheds of the Red Loam Erosion Area and Assessment of the Effectiveness)。
文摘Analyzing the changes in agricultural carbon emissions(ACE)and their influencing factors can provide a sound basis for accurately estimating the carbon balance of agroecosystems.Such analyses can serve as a reference for developing policies to mitigate global climate change and promote sustainable agricultural development.Using the carbon emission calculation framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,this study examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of ACE,including total amount,intensity,structure and their influencing factors,in Fujian Province from 2002 to 2022.The logarithmic mean scale index model and Tapio decoupling model were used,with the GM(1,1)model to forecast carbon emissions from 2023 to 2040.The results indicate that both the total emissions and intensity of ACE had fluctuating downward trends and agricultural material inputs were the largest contributors to ACE.Additionally,total ACE was found to have a spatial pattern higher in the west and lower in the east and agricultural production efficiency was the primary factor in reducing ACE.ACE was clearly decoupled from economic development and is projected to continually decline after2023.
