This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administratio...This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.展开更多
In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statist...In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.展开更多
This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall(SE)immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shea...This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall(SE)immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shear(VWS),using idealized numerical experiments.Results reveal that the SE develops greater radial extent when surface winds align with VWS compared to counter-aligned conditions.In alignment configurations,shear-enhanced surface winds on the right flank amplify surface enthalpy fluxes,thereby elevating boundary-layer entropy within the downshear outer-core region.Subsequently,more vigorous outer rainbands develop,inducing marked acceleration of tangential winds in the outer core preceding SE formation.The resultant radial expansion of supergradient winds near the boundary-layer top triggers widespread convective activity immediately beyond the inner core.Progressive axisymmetrization of this convective forcing ultimately generates an expansive SE structure.展开更多
Upper Andean tropical forests are renowned for their extraordinary biodiversity and heterogeneous environmental conditions.Despite the critical role of litter decomposition in carbon and nutrient cycles,its dynamics i...Upper Andean tropical forests are renowned for their extraordinary biodiversity and heterogeneous environmental conditions.Despite the critical role of litter decomposition in carbon and nutrient cycles,its dynamics in this region remains unexplored at finer scales.This study investigates how micro site conditions influence litter decomposition of 15 upper Andean species over time.A reciprocal translocation field experiment was conducted over 18 months in 14 permanent plots within four sites in Colombian Andean mountain forests.Each plot contained three litterbeds(microsites),each with the 15 species,harvested at 3,6,12 and 18 months,totaling 2520 litterbags.Different forest variables,including canopy openness,leaf area index,slope and depth of litter,were measured in each litterbed.ANOVAs and linear mixed models were used to assess variation between sites and plots respectively,while multiple linear regression analyses evaluated the effects of forest variables on decay rates over time at the micro site scale.Results showed differences in absolute decay rates between sites but consistent relative decay rates,indicating varying magnitudes of decomposition,yet maintaining the same order based on their litter quality.Decay rates varied between species,with more variation in labile species compared to recalcitrant ones.Despite substantial variation in forest characteristics within sites,their influence on litter decomposition was minimal and declined over time.This suggests that,at finer spatial scales,the forest microenvironment plays a lesser role in litter decomposition,with litter quality emerging as the primary driver.This study is a step towards understanding the fine-scale dynamics of litter decomposition in upper Andean tropical forests,highlighting the intricate interplay between microenvironmental factors and decomposition processes.展开更多
Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the...Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.展开更多
The atmospheric surface layer of the tropical coastal ocean is commonly very unstable and experiences weakwind conditions.How the latent(LE)and sensible(H)heat fluxes behave under such conditions are unclear because o...The atmospheric surface layer of the tropical coastal ocean is commonly very unstable and experiences weakwind conditions.How the latent(LE)and sensible(H)heat fluxes behave under such conditions are unclear because of the lack of observation stations in the tropics.Thus,this study aims to analyze LE and H and the microclimate parameters influencing them.The authors deployed an eddy covariance system in a tropical coastal region for seven months.The microclimate parameters investigated were wind speed(U),vapor pressure deficit(Δe),temperature difference(ΔT),wind-vapor pressure deficit(UΔe),wind-temperature difference(UΔT),and atmospheric stability(z/L),where z is height and L is the Monin–Obukhov length.On the daily time scale,the results show that LE was more associated with U thanΔe,while H was more related toΔT than U.Cross-wavelet analysis revealed the strong coherence in the LE-U relationship for periods between one and two days,and for H–ΔT,0.5 to 1 day.Correlation and regression analyses confirmed the time series analyses results,where strong positive correlation coefficients(r)were obtained between LE and U(r=0.494)and H andΔT(r=0.365).Compared to other water bodies,the transfer coefficient of moisture(CE N)was found to be small(=0.40×10^(-3))and independent of stability;conversely,the transfer coefficient of heat(CH N)was closer to literature values(=1.00×10^(-3))and a function of stability.展开更多
A modified three-dimensional turbulence parameterization scheme,implemented by replacing the conventional eddydiffusivity formulation with the H-gradient model,has shown good performance in representing the subgrid-sc...A modified three-dimensional turbulence parameterization scheme,implemented by replacing the conventional eddydiffusivity formulation with the H-gradient model,has shown good performance in representing the subgrid-scale(SGS)turbulent fluxes associated with convective clouds in idealized tropical cyclone(TC)simulations.To evaluate the capability of the modified scheme in simulating real TCs,two sets of simulations of TC Soudelor(2015),one with the modified scheme and the other with the original scheme,are conducted.Comparisons with observations and coarse-grained results from large eddy simulation benchmarks demonstrate that the modified scheme improves the forecasting of the intensity and structure,as well as the SGS turbulent fluxes of Soudelor.Using the modified turbulence scheme,a TC with stronger intensity,smaller size,a shallower but stronger inflow layer,and a more intense but less inclined convective updraft is simulated.The rapid intensification process and secondary eyewall features can also be captured better by the modified scheme.By analyzing the mechanism by which turbulent transport impacts the intensity and structure of TCs,it is shown that accurately representing the turbulent transport associated with convective clouds above the planetary boundary layer helps to initiate the TC spin-up process.展开更多
GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biom...GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.展开更多
Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine ...Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.展开更多
GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biom...GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.展开更多
In this study,numerical experiments with different initial radius of maximum wind(RMW)are performed to study the effects of tropical cyclone(TC)size combined with land-sea contrast on TC motion and low-level wind stru...In this study,numerical experiments with different initial radius of maximum wind(RMW)are performed to study the effects of tropical cyclone(TC)size combined with land-sea contrast on TC motion and low-level wind structure before landfall.By idealized numerical simulations,we found that larger TC arrived coastline earlier than smaller TC,when they started moving from the same position.This is because that the larger TCs not only accelerate earlier but also have greater movement speed than smaller TCs when they approach the coastline.The mechanism responsible for this is that the edge of large TCs reach coastline earlier,thus their movement speed accelerated earlier than small TCs,due to the asymmetries in diabatic heating and radial flow generated by the land-sea contrast.Moreover,when TCs in three experiments all affected by the land-sea contrast,the stronger asymmetries generated in larger TC,thus resulting in faster movement in larger TC.The stronger inflow in western quadrant and weaker inflow(even outflow)in eastern quadrant of larger TC deduced apparently difference in vertical motion and diabatic heating between western and eastern quadrant of TC before landfall.An analysis of potential vorticity tendency proved that the diabatic heating terms were important and considered in determining the TC landward drift because asymmetries in vertical motion and relative vorticity developed due to asymmetric flow.展开更多
Recent studies identify large uncertainties in the projections of tropical cyclone(TC)activity due to discrepancies in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)warming patterns.While observational datasets consist...Recent studies identify large uncertainties in the projections of tropical cyclone(TC)activity due to discrepancies in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)warming patterns.While observational datasets consistently reveal a La Niña-like warming pattern[0.15℃-0.25℃(10 yr)^(−1) relative cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific],over 80%of CMIP6 models project an erroneous El Niño-like trend.These discrepancies arise from biases in cloud feedbacks,Walker circulation strength,and oceanic upwelling processes.This review examines the key mechanisms shaping observed versus modeled warming patterns,evaluates the complex link between tropical SST patterns and TC activity,and explores the feasibility of storm-resolving models for improving TC projections.We propose that pattern-conditioned TC projections using convection-permitting models,alongside physics-informed interpretations,offer a path forward in reducing uncertainties in future climate predictions.展开更多
Tropical cyclones(TCs)have profound impacts on socioeconomic conditions and pose substantial risks to lives and property.However,it is still unclear whether the multitimescale changes in TC activity over the past 2000...Tropical cyclones(TCs)have profound impacts on socioeconomic conditions and pose substantial risks to lives and property.However,it is still unclear whether the multitimescale changes in TC activity over the past 2000 years in the Northwestern Pacific(NWP)were regulated by Asian dust forcing.Here,we assessed the impact of Asian dust on TC activity using observational data and reconstructed records from the northern and southern NWP.Our correlation analysis of instrumental data from 1954 to 2017 reveals no significant relationship between observed TC activity and Asian dust forcing.Furthermore,we found a meridional dipole pattern of TC variation across the NWP in observations and reconstructions.These finding challenges current explanations that are based on the synchronous changes in TC activity and Asian dust forcing.Alternatively,we propose that the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)plays a crucial role in driving these meridional dipole patterns in TC variations,as supported by observations and reconstructions.The southwestward extension of an enhanced WPSH intensifies easterly flow,steering TCs westward along its southern edge.This leads to more TC activity in the southern NWP but less in the north,and vice versa when the WPSH is weakened.With the expected strengthening of the WPSH due to global warming,it is vital to consider its impact on NWP TC activity for effective risk-mitigation strategies.展开更多
The present study employs statistical analysis to investigate the relationship between the geopotential height anomalies induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)and the meridional movement of the western Pacific subtropical ...The present study employs statistical analysis to investigate the relationship between the geopotential height anomalies induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)and the meridional movement of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),as well as the mechanisms through which TCs can induce such geopotential height anomalies.Results show that TCs can cause the WPSH to move northward,and the meridional motion of the WPSH ridgeline is related with the geopotential height anomalies,which is better indicated by the relative geopotential height anomalies.In the process of TCs causing the WPSH to move northward,the TCs cause abnormal horizonal warm(cold)advection and abnormal ascending(descending)motion in the region south(north)of 40°N.Since the influence of the abnormal vertical motion is weaker,the abnormal temperature tendency eventually shows a more consistent phase distribution with the abnormal horizonal temperature advection,which is favorable for the temperature to abnormally increase near 40°N.Such an abnormal increase in temperature causes the geopotential height to abnormally increase under the static equilibrium constraint,which further changes the location of the centroid of the WPSH geopotential height,and hence the location of the WPSH ridgeline changes as well.展开更多
This paper discusses division on tropical/subtropical boundary of middle section in South China. This discussion results in new understanding on eco-geographic regions and their boundaries, especially on gradual chang...This paper discusses division on tropical/subtropical boundary of middle section in South China. This discussion results in new understanding on eco-geographic regions and their boundaries, especially on gradual changes of natural conditions between eco-geographic regions. It analyzes results of the same area by other researchers, clarifies differences and causes of the differences for the results. Boundaries of eco-geographic regions cannot be drawn as a line as changes from tropical to subtropical are gradual. Therefore, for an eco-geographic region like tropical zone, definite boundaries must be mapped while gradual changes are considered. Temperature, vegetation and soil are the indexes to divide tropical and subtropical. After indexes of tropical zone are confirmed, data of annual average index reflect general state of the tropical zone. Line from such data is called “tropical boundary”. On the other hand, affected by the monsoon climate, some years are hotter and some are cooler. In hotter years, temperature of north area of tropical boundary reaches tropical state whereas in cooler years, such area moves southward. Boundary of the hottest year is called annual tropical line and that of the coolest year true tropical line. Temperatures in areas south to annual tropical line can probably reach tropical in some years. Temperatures in areas south to real tropical line reach tropical every year. The area from true tropical to annual tropical is called tropical fluctuating zone. Therefore, new concepts of tropical, annual tropical, true tropical and tropical fluctuating zone are formed to understand tropical area from a new point of view in the paper. Based on the indexes of climate, vegetation and soil, boundaries of tropical, annual tropical, true tropical and tropical fluctuating zone of the study area are established. The tropical fluctuating zone explains different locating of different researchers. The paper also puts forward a new method to display boundary for eco-geographic regions.展开更多
Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit signifi...Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.展开更多
The karst forest in southwestern China is characterized by thin soil layers,numerous fissures and holes,resulting in low soil water availability and poor water retention,making it challenging for plant growth and surv...The karst forest in southwestern China is characterized by thin soil layers,numerous fissures and holes,resulting in low soil water availability and poor water retention,making it challenging for plant growth and survival.While the relationship between plant functional traits and tree growth performance has been extensively studied,the links between tree seasonal growth and drought-tolerant traits in tree species with different leaf habit remains poorly understood.This study evaluated the associations between four-year averaged rainy season stem diameter growth rate and 17 branch and leaf traits across evergreen and deciduous species in a tropical karst forest in southwest China.The cross-species variations in tree growth rates were related to plant hydraulic traits(e.g.,vessel lumen diameter,xylem vessel density,stomatal density,and stomatal size)and leaf anatomical traits(e.g.,total leaf thickness,lower/upper epidermis thickness,and spongy thickness).The growth of evergreen trees exhibited lower hydraulic efficiency but greater drought tolerance than deciduous tree,which enabled them to maintain higher persistence under low soil water availability and consequently a relatively longer growing season.In contrast,deciduous species showed no correlation between their functional traits and growth rate.The distinct water use strategies of evergreen and deciduous trees may offer a potential explanation for their co-existence in the tropical karst forests.展开更多
At present,the identification of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)requires subjective participation,leading to inconsistent results among different researchers despite adopting the same identification standar...At present,the identification of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)requires subjective participation,leading to inconsistent results among different researchers despite adopting the same identification standard.Thus,establishing an objective identification method is greatly important.In this study,an objective synoptic analysis technique for TRP(OSAT_TRP)is proposed to identify TRP using daily precipitation datasets,historical tropical cyclone(TC)track data,and the ERA5 reanalysis data.This method includes three steps:first,independent rain belts are separated,and those that might relate to TCs'remote effects are distinguished according to their distance from the TCs.Second,the strong water vapor transport belt from the TC is identified using integrated horizontal water vapor transport(IVT).Third,TRP is distinguished by connecting the first two steps.The TRP obtained through this method can satisfy three criteria,as follows:1)the precipitation occurs outside the circulation of TCs,2)the precipitation is affected by TCs,and 3)a gap exists between the TRP and TC rain belt.Case diagnosis analysis,compared with subjective TRP results and backward trajectory analyses using HYSPLIT,indicates that OSAT_TRP can distinguish TRP even when multiple TCs in the Northwest Pacific are involved.Then,we applied the OSAT_TRP to select typical TRPs and obtained the synoptic-scale environments of the TRP through composite analysis.展开更多
Based on morphology and phylogenetic analyses,a new species,Efibula candidissima,is described from Bawangling,National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest.The basidiomata are resupinate,waxy,snow white when fresh,white...Based on morphology and phylogenetic analyses,a new species,Efibula candidissima,is described from Bawangling,National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest.The basidiomata are resupinate,waxy,snow white when fresh,white to cream and soft corky to fragile when dry,with distinct snow white rhizomorph at margin.Hymenophore surface are smooth,and the clamp connections are absent.Ellipsoid to oblong-ellipsoid basidiospores measure 4.8–5.8×3.3–4μm.This species is distributed in tropical forest in southern China.展开更多
Tropical cyclones(TCs)are one of the most serious types of natural disasters,and accurate TC activity predictions are key to disaster prevention and mitigation.Recently,TC track predictions have made significant progr...Tropical cyclones(TCs)are one of the most serious types of natural disasters,and accurate TC activity predictions are key to disaster prevention and mitigation.Recently,TC track predictions have made significant progress,but the ability to predict their intensity is obviously lagging behind.At present,research on TC intensity prediction takes atmospheric reanalysis data as the research object and mines the relationship between TC-related environmental factors and intensity through deep learning.However,reanalysis data are non-real-time in nature,which does not meet the requirements for operational forecasting applications.Therefore,a TC intensity prediction model named TC-Rolling is proposed,which can simultaneously extract the degree of symmetry for strong TC convective cloud and convection intensity,and fuse the deviation-angle variance with satellite images to construct the correlation between TC convection structure and intensity.For TCs'complex dynamic processes,a convolutional neural network(CNN)is used to learn their temporal and spatial features.For real-time intensity estimation,multi-task learning acts as an implicit time-series enhancement.The model is designed with a rolling strategy that aims to moderate the long-term dependent decay problem and improve accuracy for short-term intensity predictions.Since multiple tasks are correlated,the loss function of 12 h and 24 h are corrected.After testing on a sample of TCs in the Northwest Pacific,with a 4.48 kt root-mean-square error(RMSE)of 6 h intensity prediction,5.78 kt for 12 h,and 13.94 kt for 24 h,TC records from official agencies are used to assess the validity of TC-Rolling.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFC3008004]。
文摘This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(No.SCSF202307)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(No.2023Z016)+1 种基金the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China(No.42275037)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers U2342202,42175005,and 42175016]the Qing Lan Project[grant number R2023Q06]。
文摘This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall(SE)immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shear(VWS),using idealized numerical experiments.Results reveal that the SE develops greater radial extent when surface winds align with VWS compared to counter-aligned conditions.In alignment configurations,shear-enhanced surface winds on the right flank amplify surface enthalpy fluxes,thereby elevating boundary-layer entropy within the downshear outer-core region.Subsequently,more vigorous outer rainbands develop,inducing marked acceleration of tangential winds in the outer core preceding SE formation.The resultant radial expansion of supergradient winds near the boundary-layer top triggers widespread convective activity immediately beyond the inner core.Progressive axisymmetrization of this convective forcing ultimately generates an expansive SE structure.
基金supported by the Universidad del Rosario(Small grant ID:IV-FPD003)。
文摘Upper Andean tropical forests are renowned for their extraordinary biodiversity and heterogeneous environmental conditions.Despite the critical role of litter decomposition in carbon and nutrient cycles,its dynamics in this region remains unexplored at finer scales.This study investigates how micro site conditions influence litter decomposition of 15 upper Andean species over time.A reciprocal translocation field experiment was conducted over 18 months in 14 permanent plots within four sites in Colombian Andean mountain forests.Each plot contained three litterbeds(microsites),each with the 15 species,harvested at 3,6,12 and 18 months,totaling 2520 litterbags.Different forest variables,including canopy openness,leaf area index,slope and depth of litter,were measured in each litterbed.ANOVAs and linear mixed models were used to assess variation between sites and plots respectively,while multiple linear regression analyses evaluated the effects of forest variables on decay rates over time at the micro site scale.Results showed differences in absolute decay rates between sites but consistent relative decay rates,indicating varying magnitudes of decomposition,yet maintaining the same order based on their litter quality.Decay rates varied between species,with more variation in labile species compared to recalcitrant ones.Despite substantial variation in forest characteristics within sites,their influence on litter decomposition was minimal and declined over time.This suggests that,at finer spatial scales,the forest microenvironment plays a lesser role in litter decomposition,with litter quality emerging as the primary driver.This study is a step towards understanding the fine-scale dynamics of litter decomposition in upper Andean tropical forests,highlighting the intricate interplay between microenvironmental factors and decomposition processes.
基金jointly supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number-ber 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42293294]the China Meteorological Admin-istration Climate Change Special Program[grant number QBZ202303]。
文摘Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.
基金supported by a PETRONAS-Academia Collabora-tion Dialogue 2022 Grant[Grant number PACD 2022]from PETRONAS Research Sdn.Bhd。
文摘The atmospheric surface layer of the tropical coastal ocean is commonly very unstable and experiences weakwind conditions.How the latent(LE)and sensible(H)heat fluxes behave under such conditions are unclear because of the lack of observation stations in the tropics.Thus,this study aims to analyze LE and H and the microclimate parameters influencing them.The authors deployed an eddy covariance system in a tropical coastal region for seven months.The microclimate parameters investigated were wind speed(U),vapor pressure deficit(Δe),temperature difference(ΔT),wind-vapor pressure deficit(UΔe),wind-temperature difference(UΔT),and atmospheric stability(z/L),where z is height and L is the Monin–Obukhov length.On the daily time scale,the results show that LE was more associated with U thanΔe,while H was more related toΔT than U.Cross-wavelet analysis revealed the strong coherence in the LE-U relationship for periods between one and two days,and for H–ΔT,0.5 to 1 day.Correlation and regression analyses confirmed the time series analyses results,where strong positive correlation coefficients(r)were obtained between LE and U(r=0.494)and H andΔT(r=0.365).Compared to other water bodies,the transfer coefficient of moisture(CE N)was found to be small(=0.40×10^(-3))and independent of stability;conversely,the transfer coefficient of heat(CH N)was closer to literature values(=1.00×10^(-3))and a function of stability.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2021YFC3000803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42375149,41975133 and 42205070)the Shanghai Pujiang Program(Grant No.22PJ1415900)。
文摘A modified three-dimensional turbulence parameterization scheme,implemented by replacing the conventional eddydiffusivity formulation with the H-gradient model,has shown good performance in representing the subgrid-scale(SGS)turbulent fluxes associated with convective clouds in idealized tropical cyclone(TC)simulations.To evaluate the capability of the modified scheme in simulating real TCs,two sets of simulations of TC Soudelor(2015),one with the modified scheme and the other with the original scheme,are conducted.Comparisons with observations and coarse-grained results from large eddy simulation benchmarks demonstrate that the modified scheme improves the forecasting of the intensity and structure,as well as the SGS turbulent fluxes of Soudelor.Using the modified turbulence scheme,a TC with stronger intensity,smaller size,a shallower but stronger inflow layer,and a more intense but less inclined convective updraft is simulated.The rapid intensification process and secondary eyewall features can also be captured better by the modified scheme.By analyzing the mechanism by which turbulent transport impacts the intensity and structure of TCs,it is shown that accurately representing the turbulent transport associated with convective clouds above the planetary boundary layer helps to initiate the TC spin-up process.
文摘GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.
文摘Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.
文摘GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42175011,42192554,and 42305007.
文摘In this study,numerical experiments with different initial radius of maximum wind(RMW)are performed to study the effects of tropical cyclone(TC)size combined with land-sea contrast on TC motion and low-level wind structure before landfall.By idealized numerical simulations,we found that larger TC arrived coastline earlier than smaller TC,when they started moving from the same position.This is because that the larger TCs not only accelerate earlier but also have greater movement speed than smaller TCs when they approach the coastline.The mechanism responsible for this is that the edge of large TCs reach coastline earlier,thus their movement speed accelerated earlier than small TCs,due to the asymmetries in diabatic heating and radial flow generated by the land-sea contrast.Moreover,when TCs in three experiments all affected by the land-sea contrast,the stronger asymmetries generated in larger TC,thus resulting in faster movement in larger TC.The stronger inflow in western quadrant and weaker inflow(even outflow)in eastern quadrant of larger TC deduced apparently difference in vertical motion and diabatic heating between western and eastern quadrant of TC before landfall.An analysis of potential vorticity tendency proved that the diabatic heating terms were important and considered in determining the TC landward drift because asymmetries in vertical motion and relative vorticity developed due to asymmetric flow.
基金supported partly by the AORI visiting professorship programsupported in part by a Moonshot R&D grant(Grant No.JPMJMS2282-02)from the Japan Science and Technology Agency+1 种基金the JSPS Core-to-Core Program,“International Core-to-Core Project on Global Storm Resolving Analysis”(Grant No.JPJSCCA20220001)JSPS KAKENHI(Grant Nos.20B202,20H05728,and 24K00703)。
文摘Recent studies identify large uncertainties in the projections of tropical cyclone(TC)activity due to discrepancies in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)warming patterns.While observational datasets consistently reveal a La Niña-like warming pattern[0.15℃-0.25℃(10 yr)^(−1) relative cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific],over 80%of CMIP6 models project an erroneous El Niño-like trend.These discrepancies arise from biases in cloud feedbacks,Walker circulation strength,and oceanic upwelling processes.This review examines the key mechanisms shaping observed versus modeled warming patterns,evaluates the complex link between tropical SST patterns and TC activity,and explores the feasibility of storm-resolving models for improving TC projections.We propose that pattern-conditioned TC projections using convection-permitting models,alongside physics-informed interpretations,offer a path forward in reducing uncertainties in future climate predictions.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42225105,No.42201176National Natural Science Foundation of China Basic Science Center for Tibetan Plateau Earth System Project(NSFC BSCTPES Project),No.41988101。
文摘Tropical cyclones(TCs)have profound impacts on socioeconomic conditions and pose substantial risks to lives and property.However,it is still unclear whether the multitimescale changes in TC activity over the past 2000 years in the Northwestern Pacific(NWP)were regulated by Asian dust forcing.Here,we assessed the impact of Asian dust on TC activity using observational data and reconstructed records from the northern and southern NWP.Our correlation analysis of instrumental data from 1954 to 2017 reveals no significant relationship between observed TC activity and Asian dust forcing.Furthermore,we found a meridional dipole pattern of TC variation across the NWP in observations and reconstructions.These finding challenges current explanations that are based on the synchronous changes in TC activity and Asian dust forcing.Alternatively,we propose that the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)plays a crucial role in driving these meridional dipole patterns in TC variations,as supported by observations and reconstructions.The southwestward extension of an enhanced WPSH intensifies easterly flow,steering TCs westward along its southern edge.This leads to more TC activity in the southern NWP but less in the north,and vice versa when the WPSH is weakened.With the expected strengthening of the WPSH due to global warming,it is vital to consider its impact on NWP TC activity for effective risk-mitigation strategies.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42305011]。
文摘The present study employs statistical analysis to investigate the relationship between the geopotential height anomalies induced by tropical cyclones(TCs)and the meridional movement of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),as well as the mechanisms through which TCs can induce such geopotential height anomalies.Results show that TCs can cause the WPSH to move northward,and the meridional motion of the WPSH ridgeline is related with the geopotential height anomalies,which is better indicated by the relative geopotential height anomalies.In the process of TCs causing the WPSH to move northward,the TCs cause abnormal horizonal warm(cold)advection and abnormal ascending(descending)motion in the region south(north)of 40°N.Since the influence of the abnormal vertical motion is weaker,the abnormal temperature tendency eventually shows a more consistent phase distribution with the abnormal horizonal temperature advection,which is favorable for the temperature to abnormally increase near 40°N.Such an abnormal increase in temperature causes the geopotential height to abnormally increase under the static equilibrium constraint,which further changes the location of the centroid of the WPSH geopotential height,and hence the location of the WPSH ridgeline changes as well.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.49731020)
文摘This paper discusses division on tropical/subtropical boundary of middle section in South China. This discussion results in new understanding on eco-geographic regions and their boundaries, especially on gradual changes of natural conditions between eco-geographic regions. It analyzes results of the same area by other researchers, clarifies differences and causes of the differences for the results. Boundaries of eco-geographic regions cannot be drawn as a line as changes from tropical to subtropical are gradual. Therefore, for an eco-geographic region like tropical zone, definite boundaries must be mapped while gradual changes are considered. Temperature, vegetation and soil are the indexes to divide tropical and subtropical. After indexes of tropical zone are confirmed, data of annual average index reflect general state of the tropical zone. Line from such data is called “tropical boundary”. On the other hand, affected by the monsoon climate, some years are hotter and some are cooler. In hotter years, temperature of north area of tropical boundary reaches tropical state whereas in cooler years, such area moves southward. Boundary of the hottest year is called annual tropical line and that of the coolest year true tropical line. Temperatures in areas south to annual tropical line can probably reach tropical in some years. Temperatures in areas south to real tropical line reach tropical every year. The area from true tropical to annual tropical is called tropical fluctuating zone. Therefore, new concepts of tropical, annual tropical, true tropical and tropical fluctuating zone are formed to understand tropical area from a new point of view in the paper. Based on the indexes of climate, vegetation and soil, boundaries of tropical, annual tropical, true tropical and tropical fluctuating zone of the study area are established. The tropical fluctuating zone explains different locating of different researchers. The paper also puts forward a new method to display boundary for eco-geographic regions.
基金Supported by the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ 202202404)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDB 42000000)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.42030410)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST,and the Jiangsu Innovation Research Group(No.JSSCTD 202346)。
文摘Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.
基金financially funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(3186113307,31770533,31870591)the West Light Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(xbzg-zdsys-202218).
文摘The karst forest in southwestern China is characterized by thin soil layers,numerous fissures and holes,resulting in low soil water availability and poor water retention,making it challenging for plant growth and survival.While the relationship between plant functional traits and tree growth performance has been extensively studied,the links between tree seasonal growth and drought-tolerant traits in tree species with different leaf habit remains poorly understood.This study evaluated the associations between four-year averaged rainy season stem diameter growth rate and 17 branch and leaf traits across evergreen and deciduous species in a tropical karst forest in southwest China.The cross-species variations in tree growth rates were related to plant hydraulic traits(e.g.,vessel lumen diameter,xylem vessel density,stomatal density,and stomatal size)and leaf anatomical traits(e.g.,total leaf thickness,lower/upper epidermis thickness,and spongy thickness).The growth of evergreen trees exhibited lower hydraulic efficiency but greater drought tolerance than deciduous tree,which enabled them to maintain higher persistence under low soil water availability and consequently a relatively longer growing season.In contrast,deciduous species showed no correlation between their functional traits and growth rate.The distinct water use strategies of evergreen and deciduous trees may offer a potential explanation for their co-existence in the tropical karst forests.
基金supported by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(No.KYCX22_1136)the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China(No.42275037)+2 种基金the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(No.2023Z016)the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(No.SCSF202202)supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘At present,the identification of tropical cyclone remote precipitation(TRP)requires subjective participation,leading to inconsistent results among different researchers despite adopting the same identification standard.Thus,establishing an objective identification method is greatly important.In this study,an objective synoptic analysis technique for TRP(OSAT_TRP)is proposed to identify TRP using daily precipitation datasets,historical tropical cyclone(TC)track data,and the ERA5 reanalysis data.This method includes three steps:first,independent rain belts are separated,and those that might relate to TCs'remote effects are distinguished according to their distance from the TCs.Second,the strong water vapor transport belt from the TC is identified using integrated horizontal water vapor transport(IVT).Third,TRP is distinguished by connecting the first two steps.The TRP obtained through this method can satisfy three criteria,as follows:1)the precipitation occurs outside the circulation of TCs,2)the precipitation is affected by TCs,and 3)a gap exists between the TRP and TC rain belt.Case diagnosis analysis,compared with subjective TRP results and backward trajectory analyses using HYSPLIT,indicates that OSAT_TRP can distinguish TRP even when multiple TCs in the Northwest Pacific are involved.Then,we applied the OSAT_TRP to select typical TRPs and obtained the synoptic-scale environments of the TRP through composite analysis.
基金supported by the Hainan Institute of National Park(KY-24ZK02)the Key Research and Development Program Project of Hainan Province,China(ZDYF2023RDYL01)+1 种基金the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program(Grade C)of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(GZC20230254)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32270011).
文摘Based on morphology and phylogenetic analyses,a new species,Efibula candidissima,is described from Bawangling,National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest.The basidiomata are resupinate,waxy,snow white when fresh,white to cream and soft corky to fragile when dry,with distinct snow white rhizomorph at margin.Hymenophore surface are smooth,and the clamp connections are absent.Ellipsoid to oblong-ellipsoid basidiospores measure 4.8–5.8×3.3–4μm.This species is distributed in tropical forest in southern China.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42075138 and 42375147)the Program on Key Basic Research Project of Jiangsu(Grant No.BE2023829)。
文摘Tropical cyclones(TCs)are one of the most serious types of natural disasters,and accurate TC activity predictions are key to disaster prevention and mitigation.Recently,TC track predictions have made significant progress,but the ability to predict their intensity is obviously lagging behind.At present,research on TC intensity prediction takes atmospheric reanalysis data as the research object and mines the relationship between TC-related environmental factors and intensity through deep learning.However,reanalysis data are non-real-time in nature,which does not meet the requirements for operational forecasting applications.Therefore,a TC intensity prediction model named TC-Rolling is proposed,which can simultaneously extract the degree of symmetry for strong TC convective cloud and convection intensity,and fuse the deviation-angle variance with satellite images to construct the correlation between TC convection structure and intensity.For TCs'complex dynamic processes,a convolutional neural network(CNN)is used to learn their temporal and spatial features.For real-time intensity estimation,multi-task learning acts as an implicit time-series enhancement.The model is designed with a rolling strategy that aims to moderate the long-term dependent decay problem and improve accuracy for short-term intensity predictions.Since multiple tasks are correlated,the loss function of 12 h and 24 h are corrected.After testing on a sample of TCs in the Northwest Pacific,with a 4.48 kt root-mean-square error(RMSE)of 6 h intensity prediction,5.78 kt for 12 h,and 13.94 kt for 24 h,TC records from official agencies are used to assess the validity of TC-Rolling.
