Based on datasets from the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS)and the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF(ERA5),the authors found that 29%of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the weste...Based on datasets from the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS)and the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF(ERA5),the authors found that 29%of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the western North Pacific underwent extratropical transition(ET)from 1979 to 2022,with the frequency of ET events showing a slow decreasing trend.The extratropical transition tropical cyclones(ETCs)are classified into four clusters using the k-means clustering method based on their track patterns:recurving ETCs,westward ETCs,northwestward ETCs,and abnormal track ETCs.The transition process of recurving ETCs mostly occurs after the recurvature is completed,while 63.7%of the westward ETCs complete their transition after landfall.Abnormal track ETCs undergo transition over high-latitude oceans.Northwestward ETCs have the longest duration and slowest transition speed during the ET period,resulting in a prolonged impact.The ET process occurs at the edges of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),with higher frequency during westward extension and lower during eastward retreat.While westward ETCs transition through surface friction effects,others complete ET in the northwest baroclinic zone of the WPSH.展开更多
This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administratio...This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.展开更多
In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statist...In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.展开更多
This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall(SE)immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shea...This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall(SE)immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shear(VWS),using idealized numerical experiments.Results reveal that the SE develops greater radial extent when surface winds align with VWS compared to counter-aligned conditions.In alignment configurations,shear-enhanced surface winds on the right flank amplify surface enthalpy fluxes,thereby elevating boundary-layer entropy within the downshear outer-core region.Subsequently,more vigorous outer rainbands develop,inducing marked acceleration of tangential winds in the outer core preceding SE formation.The resultant radial expansion of supergradient winds near the boundary-layer top triggers widespread convective activity immediately beyond the inner core.Progressive axisymmetrization of this convective forcing ultimately generates an expansive SE structure.展开更多
Upper Andean tropical forests are renowned for their extraordinary biodiversity and heterogeneous environmental conditions.Despite the critical role of litter decomposition in carbon and nutrient cycles,its dynamics i...Upper Andean tropical forests are renowned for their extraordinary biodiversity and heterogeneous environmental conditions.Despite the critical role of litter decomposition in carbon and nutrient cycles,its dynamics in this region remains unexplored at finer scales.This study investigates how micro site conditions influence litter decomposition of 15 upper Andean species over time.A reciprocal translocation field experiment was conducted over 18 months in 14 permanent plots within four sites in Colombian Andean mountain forests.Each plot contained three litterbeds(microsites),each with the 15 species,harvested at 3,6,12 and 18 months,totaling 2520 litterbags.Different forest variables,including canopy openness,leaf area index,slope and depth of litter,were measured in each litterbed.ANOVAs and linear mixed models were used to assess variation between sites and plots respectively,while multiple linear regression analyses evaluated the effects of forest variables on decay rates over time at the micro site scale.Results showed differences in absolute decay rates between sites but consistent relative decay rates,indicating varying magnitudes of decomposition,yet maintaining the same order based on their litter quality.Decay rates varied between species,with more variation in labile species compared to recalcitrant ones.Despite substantial variation in forest characteristics within sites,their influence on litter decomposition was minimal and declined over time.This suggests that,at finer spatial scales,the forest microenvironment plays a lesser role in litter decomposition,with litter quality emerging as the primary driver.This study is a step towards understanding the fine-scale dynamics of litter decomposition in upper Andean tropical forests,highlighting the intricate interplay between microenvironmental factors and decomposition processes.展开更多
The commencement of the tropical Asian summer monsoon(TASM)in May is a crucial phase in its seasonal evolution,with critical implications for agriculture and water resources.Based on observational and reanalysis data,...The commencement of the tropical Asian summer monsoon(TASM)in May is a crucial phase in its seasonal evolution,with critical implications for agriculture and water resources.Based on observational and reanalysis data,this study finds that the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and monsoon commencement experiences a notable interdecadal strengthening after 1976/77.While the response of tropical tropospheric temperature to ENSO remains largely unchanged,ENSO induces a stronger Walker circulation,a more pronounced equatorial Rossby wave,and an intensified extratropical Rossby wave train after 1976/77.These enhanced atmospheric processes,which directly reinforce the ENSO-TASM commencement relationship,are likely driven by interdecadal shifts in the structure and variance of ENSO.Post-1976/77,ENSO displays increased variance and a more coherent structure,with more pronounced sea surface temperature anomalies in the western North Pacific and subtropical North Pacific.Given the limitations of observational data,a 1000-year piControl experiment further confirms the role of ENSO variance changes in strengthening its influence on monsoon commencement.Our findings underscore the critical influence of evolving ENSO characteristics on climate anomalies such as monsoon commencement,offering potential insights for short-term climate prediction.展开更多
The development of a vertically aligned vortex is crucial for tropical cyclone(TC)intensification,especially in the presence of environmental vertical wind shear(VWS).In comparison with previous studies,this study pro...The development of a vertically aligned vortex is crucial for tropical cyclone(TC)intensification,especially in the presence of environmental vertical wind shear(VWS).In comparison with previous studies,this study provides more rigorous evidence supporting the role of balanced dynamics in the evolution of vortex tilt by using the potential vorticity(PV)inversion method.Based on two idealized simulations of TCs subjected to nearly constant easterly shear of approximately 6 m s^(–1) and 10 m s^(–1),we demonstrate that the wavenumber-1 circulations directly responsible for vortex tilt evolution are predominantly captured by the balanced component,characterized by vortex Rossby waves.Furthermore,the adiabatic lifting resulting from the balanced response of the shear-tilted vortex contributes to enhanced convection in the TC inner core.As an air parcel undergoes cyclonic rotation,it ascends on the right side of the tilt vector,which increases relative humidity,leads to saturation,and drives the development of convective asymmetries,with maximum upward motion aligned with the tilt direction.This study suggests that the response of TC vortices to the environmental VWS involves complex interactions between vortex tilt,asymmetries in TC structure,and convection,all of which can largely be understood within the framework of balanced dynamics.展开更多
Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the...Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.展开更多
Water use adaptive strategies for plants on tropical islands are far less clear than those in continental environments,largely because plants in tropical ecosystems are normally exposed to abundant solar energy.Thus,c...Water use adaptive strategies for plants on tropical islands are far less clear than those in continental environments,largely because plants in tropical ecosystems are normally exposed to abundant solar energy.Thus,clarifying the characteristics of water conservation and uptake patterns by plants is critical for understanding the plant water adaptation in tropical ecosystems.To address this issue,we investigated the water retention capacity of litter from the dominant tree species(Casuarina equisetifolia)on a tropical island.Theδ^(2)H andδ^(18)O of the xylem water and soil water under the tree canopy,as well as theδ^(13)C in the needle-like twigs,were measured to explore the water use characteristics.Our findings revealed that the maximum water retention capacity of the litter ranged from 164.14 to 175.21 t/ha,indicating that the Casuarina litter is capable of soil water conservation,thus increasing soil water availability for plants.The major water uptake sources for the Casuarina trees tended to consist of water from shallow soil layers(10-20 cm)at peripheral canopy zones and revealing pronounced spatial heterogeneity.Moreover,compared with those in a continental coastal region,the water use efficiency of Casuarina trees on a tropical island was greater.Our results suggest that the ecological strategies used by Casuarina trees for soil water conservation and water use patterns on tropical island are diverse.Therefore,these findings provide insights into the biophysical effects of vegetation on soil water availability as well as the physiological acclimation strategies adopted by plants in tropical island ecosystems.展开更多
The operational Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System(TRAMS)often underestimates initial typhoon intensity when using the global analysis field as the initial condition.The TRAMS tropical cyclone(TC)initializatio...The operational Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System(TRAMS)often underestimates initial typhoon intensity when using the global analysis field as the initial condition.The TRAMS tropical cyclone(TC)initialization scheme,developed based on the incremental analysis updates(IAU)technique,effectively reduces initial bias.However,the original IAU-based TC initialization scheme only adjusts the wind field at the analysis moment,with other variables adjusted implicitly under the model's constraints according to a gradually inserted wind increment(named“univariate adjustment scheme”hereafter).The univariate adjustment scheme requires approximately 3 h to reach a dynamic equilibrium state,which constrains the assimilation of hourly TC observations and causes excessive dissipation of meaningful short-wave information in adjustment increments.To address this limitation,this study develops a multivariate adjustment IAU-based TC initialization scheme that incorporates gradient wind balance and hydrostatic balance as its largescale constraints.Numerical experiments with TC Hato(2017)demonstrate that the multivariate adjustment scheme reduces the IAU relaxation time to 1 h while marginally improving forecast skill.These findings are consistently replicated across 12 additional TC cases.The development of the IAU-based multivariate adjustment initialization scheme establishes a foundation for 4-D initialization using hourly TC observations.展开更多
The atmospheric surface layer of the tropical coastal ocean is commonly very unstable and experiences weakwind conditions.How the latent(LE)and sensible(H)heat fluxes behave under such conditions are unclear because o...The atmospheric surface layer of the tropical coastal ocean is commonly very unstable and experiences weakwind conditions.How the latent(LE)and sensible(H)heat fluxes behave under such conditions are unclear because of the lack of observation stations in the tropics.Thus,this study aims to analyze LE and H and the microclimate parameters influencing them.The authors deployed an eddy covariance system in a tropical coastal region for seven months.The microclimate parameters investigated were wind speed(U),vapor pressure deficit(Δe),temperature difference(ΔT),wind-vapor pressure deficit(UΔe),wind-temperature difference(UΔT),and atmospheric stability(z/L),where z is height and L is the Monin–Obukhov length.On the daily time scale,the results show that LE was more associated with U thanΔe,while H was more related toΔT than U.Cross-wavelet analysis revealed the strong coherence in the LE-U relationship for periods between one and two days,and for H–ΔT,0.5 to 1 day.Correlation and regression analyses confirmed the time series analyses results,where strong positive correlation coefficients(r)were obtained between LE and U(r=0.494)and H andΔT(r=0.365).Compared to other water bodies,the transfer coefficient of moisture(CE N)was found to be small(=0.40×10^(-3))and independent of stability;conversely,the transfer coefficient of heat(CH N)was closer to literature values(=1.00×10^(-3))and a function of stability.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks and intensities is essential.Although the TianXing large weather model,a six-hourly forecasting model surpassing operational forecasts,exhibits superior performance,i...Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks and intensities is essential.Although the TianXing large weather model,a six-hourly forecasting model surpassing operational forecasts,exhibits superior performance,its TC forecasts still require enhancement.Prediction errors persist due to biases in the training data and smoothing effects in data-driven methods.To address this,we introduce CycloneBCNet,a deep-learning model designed to correct TianXing’s TC forecast biases by leveraging spatial and temporal data.CycloneBCNet utilizes the SimVP(simpler yet better video prediction)framework with spatial attention to highlight cyclone core regions in forecast fields.It also incorporates TC trend information(center position,maximum wind speed,and minimum sea level pressure)via an LSTM(long short-term memory)module.These TC vectors are derived from post-processed TianXing forecasts.By fusing features from forecast fields and TC vectors,CycloneBCNet corrects biases across multiple lead times.At a 96-h lead time,the track error reduces from 162.4 to 86.4 km,the wind speed error from 17.2 to 6.69 m s^(-1),and the pressure error from 22.2 to 9.36 hPa.Interpretability analysis shows that CycloneBCNet adjusts its attention across forecast lead times.Intensity corrections prioritize inner-core dynamics,particularly the eye and eyewall,while track corrections shift from lower-level variables and the cyclone’s core to broader environmental factors and mid-to upper-level features as the forecast duration increases.These findings demonstrate that CycloneBCNet effectively captures key TC dynamics consistent with meteorological principles,including the dominance of near-surface conditions for intensity and the increasing influence of steering currents on track prediction.展开更多
Rapid developments in the electronic information industry drive the increased energy usage and carbon emission of data center buildings,prompting the focus on the energy efficiency and environmental sustainability.Exp...Rapid developments in the electronic information industry drive the increased energy usage and carbon emission of data center buildings,prompting the focus on the energy efficiency and environmental sustainability.Expanded operation envelopes of tropical data centers is assessed to analyze the potential for the building energy savings and carbon emission reduction through collaborative analysis of operation modes(OMs),supply air temperature(SAT),and outdoor air temperature(OAT).The OMs of compression vary with the setpoints of SAT,in which the average exergy efficiency of compressors at alternate operation mode is 6.8%and 8.0%lower than that of double and single compression operations.As SAT rises from 20℃to 32℃,the system exergoeconomic factor increases from 5.4%to 8.0%,and the average carbon cost decreases by 36.5%.Additionally,with just an 8.5%increase in exergy cost(i.e.,Case 8)at OAT rising from 30 to 34℃,the high SAT and low refrigerant charges provide considerable exergy cost advantages versus resisting the OAT fluctuations.Dynamic operation strategies are also proposed and compared to cope with the impacts of tropical environments.Compared to the 26℃SAT baseline,the average energy savings are 9.1-14.7%,indicating the ability to fully utilize outdoor and indoor conditions.展开更多
A modified three-dimensional turbulence parameterization scheme,implemented by replacing the conventional eddydiffusivity formulation with the H-gradient model,has shown good performance in representing the subgrid-sc...A modified three-dimensional turbulence parameterization scheme,implemented by replacing the conventional eddydiffusivity formulation with the H-gradient model,has shown good performance in representing the subgrid-scale(SGS)turbulent fluxes associated with convective clouds in idealized tropical cyclone(TC)simulations.To evaluate the capability of the modified scheme in simulating real TCs,two sets of simulations of TC Soudelor(2015),one with the modified scheme and the other with the original scheme,are conducted.Comparisons with observations and coarse-grained results from large eddy simulation benchmarks demonstrate that the modified scheme improves the forecasting of the intensity and structure,as well as the SGS turbulent fluxes of Soudelor.Using the modified turbulence scheme,a TC with stronger intensity,smaller size,a shallower but stronger inflow layer,and a more intense but less inclined convective updraft is simulated.The rapid intensification process and secondary eyewall features can also be captured better by the modified scheme.By analyzing the mechanism by which turbulent transport impacts the intensity and structure of TCs,it is shown that accurately representing the turbulent transport associated with convective clouds above the planetary boundary layer helps to initiate the TC spin-up process.展开更多
GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biom...GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.展开更多
Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine ...Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.展开更多
GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biom...GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.展开更多
In this study,numerical experiments with different initial radius of maximum wind(RMW)are performed to study the effects of tropical cyclone(TC)size combined with land-sea contrast on TC motion and low-level wind stru...In this study,numerical experiments with different initial radius of maximum wind(RMW)are performed to study the effects of tropical cyclone(TC)size combined with land-sea contrast on TC motion and low-level wind structure before landfall.By idealized numerical simulations,we found that larger TC arrived coastline earlier than smaller TC,when they started moving from the same position.This is because that the larger TCs not only accelerate earlier but also have greater movement speed than smaller TCs when they approach the coastline.The mechanism responsible for this is that the edge of large TCs reach coastline earlier,thus their movement speed accelerated earlier than small TCs,due to the asymmetries in diabatic heating and radial flow generated by the land-sea contrast.Moreover,when TCs in three experiments all affected by the land-sea contrast,the stronger asymmetries generated in larger TC,thus resulting in faster movement in larger TC.The stronger inflow in western quadrant and weaker inflow(even outflow)in eastern quadrant of larger TC deduced apparently difference in vertical motion and diabatic heating between western and eastern quadrant of TC before landfall.An analysis of potential vorticity tendency proved that the diabatic heating terms were important and considered in determining the TC landward drift because asymmetries in vertical motion and relative vorticity developed due to asymmetric flow.展开更多
Recent studies identify large uncertainties in the projections of tropical cyclone(TC)activity due to discrepancies in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)warming patterns.While observational datasets consist...Recent studies identify large uncertainties in the projections of tropical cyclone(TC)activity due to discrepancies in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)warming patterns.While observational datasets consistently reveal a La Niña-like warming pattern[0.15℃-0.25℃(10 yr)^(−1) relative cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific],over 80%of CMIP6 models project an erroneous El Niño-like trend.These discrepancies arise from biases in cloud feedbacks,Walker circulation strength,and oceanic upwelling processes.This review examines the key mechanisms shaping observed versus modeled warming patterns,evaluates the complex link between tropical SST patterns and TC activity,and explores the feasibility of storm-resolving models for improving TC projections.We propose that pattern-conditioned TC projections using convection-permitting models,alongside physics-informed interpretations,offer a path forward in reducing uncertainties in future climate predictions.展开更多
Tropical cyclones(TCs)have profound impacts on socioeconomic conditions and pose substantial risks to lives and property.However,it is still unclear whether the multitimescale changes in TC activity over the past 2000...Tropical cyclones(TCs)have profound impacts on socioeconomic conditions and pose substantial risks to lives and property.However,it is still unclear whether the multitimescale changes in TC activity over the past 2000 years in the Northwestern Pacific(NWP)were regulated by Asian dust forcing.Here,we assessed the impact of Asian dust on TC activity using observational data and reconstructed records from the northern and southern NWP.Our correlation analysis of instrumental data from 1954 to 2017 reveals no significant relationship between observed TC activity and Asian dust forcing.Furthermore,we found a meridional dipole pattern of TC variation across the NWP in observations and reconstructions.These finding challenges current explanations that are based on the synchronous changes in TC activity and Asian dust forcing.Alternatively,we propose that the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)plays a crucial role in driving these meridional dipole patterns in TC variations,as supported by observations and reconstructions.The southwestward extension of an enhanced WPSH intensifies easterly flow,steering TCs westward along its southern edge.This leads to more TC activity in the southern NWP but less in the north,and vice versa when the WPSH is weakened.With the expected strengthening of the WPSH due to global warming,it is vital to consider its impact on NWP TC activity for effective risk-mitigation strategies.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant number 2023YFF0807000]。
文摘Based on datasets from the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS)and the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF(ERA5),the authors found that 29%of tropical cyclones(TCs)in the western North Pacific underwent extratropical transition(ET)from 1979 to 2022,with the frequency of ET events showing a slow decreasing trend.The extratropical transition tropical cyclones(ETCs)are classified into four clusters using the k-means clustering method based on their track patterns:recurving ETCs,westward ETCs,northwestward ETCs,and abnormal track ETCs.The transition process of recurving ETCs mostly occurs after the recurvature is completed,while 63.7%of the westward ETCs complete their transition after landfall.Abnormal track ETCs undergo transition over high-latitude oceans.Northwestward ETCs have the longest duration and slowest transition speed during the ET period,resulting in a prolonged impact.The ET process occurs at the edges of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),with higher frequency during westward extension and lower during eastward retreat.While westward ETCs transition through surface friction effects,others complete ET in the northwest baroclinic zone of the WPSH.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFC3008004]。
文摘This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(No.SCSF202307)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(No.2023Z016)+1 种基金the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China(No.42275037)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers U2342202,42175005,and 42175016]the Qing Lan Project[grant number R2023Q06]。
文摘This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall(SE)immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shear(VWS),using idealized numerical experiments.Results reveal that the SE develops greater radial extent when surface winds align with VWS compared to counter-aligned conditions.In alignment configurations,shear-enhanced surface winds on the right flank amplify surface enthalpy fluxes,thereby elevating boundary-layer entropy within the downshear outer-core region.Subsequently,more vigorous outer rainbands develop,inducing marked acceleration of tangential winds in the outer core preceding SE formation.The resultant radial expansion of supergradient winds near the boundary-layer top triggers widespread convective activity immediately beyond the inner core.Progressive axisymmetrization of this convective forcing ultimately generates an expansive SE structure.
基金supported by the Universidad del Rosario(Small grant ID:IV-FPD003)。
文摘Upper Andean tropical forests are renowned for their extraordinary biodiversity and heterogeneous environmental conditions.Despite the critical role of litter decomposition in carbon and nutrient cycles,its dynamics in this region remains unexplored at finer scales.This study investigates how micro site conditions influence litter decomposition of 15 upper Andean species over time.A reciprocal translocation field experiment was conducted over 18 months in 14 permanent plots within four sites in Colombian Andean mountain forests.Each plot contained three litterbeds(microsites),each with the 15 species,harvested at 3,6,12 and 18 months,totaling 2520 litterbags.Different forest variables,including canopy openness,leaf area index,slope and depth of litter,were measured in each litterbed.ANOVAs and linear mixed models were used to assess variation between sites and plots respectively,while multiple linear regression analyses evaluated the effects of forest variables on decay rates over time at the micro site scale.Results showed differences in absolute decay rates between sites but consistent relative decay rates,indicating varying magnitudes of decomposition,yet maintaining the same order based on their litter quality.Decay rates varied between species,with more variation in labile species compared to recalcitrant ones.Despite substantial variation in forest characteristics within sites,their influence on litter decomposition was minimal and declined over time.This suggests that,at finer spatial scales,the forest microenvironment plays a lesser role in litter decomposition,with litter quality emerging as the primary driver.This study is a step towards understanding the fine-scale dynamics of litter decomposition in upper Andean tropical forests,highlighting the intricate interplay between microenvironmental factors and decomposition processes.
基金supported jointly by the Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province(Grant No.202501CF070059)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42205021)+5 种基金the Yunnan Provincial Science and Technology Department(Grant Nos.202505AB350001 and202403AP140009)the Yunnan Southwest United Graduate School Science and Technology Special Project(Award No.202302AP370003)the Scientific Research Fund Project of Yunnan Education Department(Grant No.2025Y0111)the Practical Innovation Project of Postgraduate Students in the Academic Degree of Yunnan University(Grant No.KC-24248868)the Practical Innovation Project of Postgraduate Students in the Professional Degree of Yunnan University(Grant No.ZC-24248604)the Youth Science and Technology Fund Project of Gansu Province(Grant No.24JRRA1186)。
文摘The commencement of the tropical Asian summer monsoon(TASM)in May is a crucial phase in its seasonal evolution,with critical implications for agriculture and water resources.Based on observational and reanalysis data,this study finds that the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and monsoon commencement experiences a notable interdecadal strengthening after 1976/77.While the response of tropical tropospheric temperature to ENSO remains largely unchanged,ENSO induces a stronger Walker circulation,a more pronounced equatorial Rossby wave,and an intensified extratropical Rossby wave train after 1976/77.These enhanced atmospheric processes,which directly reinforce the ENSO-TASM commencement relationship,are likely driven by interdecadal shifts in the structure and variance of ENSO.Post-1976/77,ENSO displays increased variance and a more coherent structure,with more pronounced sea surface temperature anomalies in the western North Pacific and subtropical North Pacific.Given the limitations of observational data,a 1000-year piControl experiment further confirms the role of ENSO variance changes in strengthening its influence on monsoon commencement.Our findings underscore the critical influence of evolving ENSO characteristics on climate anomalies such as monsoon commencement,offering potential insights for short-term climate prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42192551,42150710531).
文摘The development of a vertically aligned vortex is crucial for tropical cyclone(TC)intensification,especially in the presence of environmental vertical wind shear(VWS).In comparison with previous studies,this study provides more rigorous evidence supporting the role of balanced dynamics in the evolution of vortex tilt by using the potential vorticity(PV)inversion method.Based on two idealized simulations of TCs subjected to nearly constant easterly shear of approximately 6 m s^(–1) and 10 m s^(–1),we demonstrate that the wavenumber-1 circulations directly responsible for vortex tilt evolution are predominantly captured by the balanced component,characterized by vortex Rossby waves.Furthermore,the adiabatic lifting resulting from the balanced response of the shear-tilted vortex contributes to enhanced convection in the TC inner core.As an air parcel undergoes cyclonic rotation,it ascends on the right side of the tilt vector,which increases relative humidity,leads to saturation,and drives the development of convective asymmetries,with maximum upward motion aligned with the tilt direction.This study suggests that the response of TC vortices to the environmental VWS involves complex interactions between vortex tilt,asymmetries in TC structure,and convection,all of which can largely be understood within the framework of balanced dynamics.
基金jointly supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number-ber 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42293294]the China Meteorological Admin-istration Climate Change Special Program[grant number QBZ202303]。
文摘Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.
基金financial support from the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Key Special Project for Marine Environmental Security and Sustainable Development of Coral Reefs 2022-102)National Science Foundation of China(No.42471129)Basic Research Program of Guangzhou Science and Technology Bureau(No.202201010341).
文摘Water use adaptive strategies for plants on tropical islands are far less clear than those in continental environments,largely because plants in tropical ecosystems are normally exposed to abundant solar energy.Thus,clarifying the characteristics of water conservation and uptake patterns by plants is critical for understanding the plant water adaptation in tropical ecosystems.To address this issue,we investigated the water retention capacity of litter from the dominant tree species(Casuarina equisetifolia)on a tropical island.Theδ^(2)H andδ^(18)O of the xylem water and soil water under the tree canopy,as well as theδ^(13)C in the needle-like twigs,were measured to explore the water use characteristics.Our findings revealed that the maximum water retention capacity of the litter ranged from 164.14 to 175.21 t/ha,indicating that the Casuarina litter is capable of soil water conservation,thus increasing soil water availability for plants.The major water uptake sources for the Casuarina trees tended to consist of water from shallow soil layers(10-20 cm)at peripheral canopy zones and revealing pronounced spatial heterogeneity.Moreover,compared with those in a continental coastal region,the water use efficiency of Casuarina trees on a tropical island was greater.Our results suggest that the ecological strategies used by Casuarina trees for soil water conservation and water use patterns on tropical island are diverse.Therefore,these findings provide insights into the biophysical effects of vegetation on soil water availability as well as the physiological acclimation strategies adopted by plants in tropical island ecosystems.
基金supported by the National University of Defense Technology(NUDT)Research Initiation Funding for High-Level Scientific and Technological Innovative Talents(202402-YJRC-LJ-001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142213)+1 种基金the Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong Province(Grants 2025A1515011835,2022A1515011870)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42305167)。
文摘The operational Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System(TRAMS)often underestimates initial typhoon intensity when using the global analysis field as the initial condition.The TRAMS tropical cyclone(TC)initialization scheme,developed based on the incremental analysis updates(IAU)technique,effectively reduces initial bias.However,the original IAU-based TC initialization scheme only adjusts the wind field at the analysis moment,with other variables adjusted implicitly under the model's constraints according to a gradually inserted wind increment(named“univariate adjustment scheme”hereafter).The univariate adjustment scheme requires approximately 3 h to reach a dynamic equilibrium state,which constrains the assimilation of hourly TC observations and causes excessive dissipation of meaningful short-wave information in adjustment increments.To address this limitation,this study develops a multivariate adjustment IAU-based TC initialization scheme that incorporates gradient wind balance and hydrostatic balance as its largescale constraints.Numerical experiments with TC Hato(2017)demonstrate that the multivariate adjustment scheme reduces the IAU relaxation time to 1 h while marginally improving forecast skill.These findings are consistently replicated across 12 additional TC cases.The development of the IAU-based multivariate adjustment initialization scheme establishes a foundation for 4-D initialization using hourly TC observations.
基金supported by a PETRONAS-Academia Collabora-tion Dialogue 2022 Grant[Grant number PACD 2022]from PETRONAS Research Sdn.Bhd。
文摘The atmospheric surface layer of the tropical coastal ocean is commonly very unstable and experiences weakwind conditions.How the latent(LE)and sensible(H)heat fluxes behave under such conditions are unclear because of the lack of observation stations in the tropics.Thus,this study aims to analyze LE and H and the microclimate parameters influencing them.The authors deployed an eddy covariance system in a tropical coastal region for seven months.The microclimate parameters investigated were wind speed(U),vapor pressure deficit(Δe),temperature difference(ΔT),wind-vapor pressure deficit(UΔe),wind-temperature difference(UΔT),and atmospheric stability(z/L),where z is height and L is the Monin–Obukhov length.On the daily time scale,the results show that LE was more associated with U thanΔe,while H was more related toΔT than U.Cross-wavelet analysis revealed the strong coherence in the LE-U relationship for periods between one and two days,and for H–ΔT,0.5 to 1 day.Correlation and regression analyses confirmed the time series analyses results,where strong positive correlation coefficients(r)were obtained between LE and U(r=0.494)and H andΔT(r=0.365).Compared to other water bodies,the transfer coefficient of moisture(CE N)was found to be small(=0.40×10^(-3))and independent of stability;conversely,the transfer coefficient of heat(CH N)was closer to literature values(=1.00×10^(-3))and a function of stability.
基金supported by the Meteorological Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142211)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42075141,42341202 and 62088101)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608000)the Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project(Grant No.2021SHZDZX0100).
文摘Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone(TC)tracks and intensities is essential.Although the TianXing large weather model,a six-hourly forecasting model surpassing operational forecasts,exhibits superior performance,its TC forecasts still require enhancement.Prediction errors persist due to biases in the training data and smoothing effects in data-driven methods.To address this,we introduce CycloneBCNet,a deep-learning model designed to correct TianXing’s TC forecast biases by leveraging spatial and temporal data.CycloneBCNet utilizes the SimVP(simpler yet better video prediction)framework with spatial attention to highlight cyclone core regions in forecast fields.It also incorporates TC trend information(center position,maximum wind speed,and minimum sea level pressure)via an LSTM(long short-term memory)module.These TC vectors are derived from post-processed TianXing forecasts.By fusing features from forecast fields and TC vectors,CycloneBCNet corrects biases across multiple lead times.At a 96-h lead time,the track error reduces from 162.4 to 86.4 km,the wind speed error from 17.2 to 6.69 m s^(-1),and the pressure error from 22.2 to 9.36 hPa.Interpretability analysis shows that CycloneBCNet adjusts its attention across forecast lead times.Intensity corrections prioritize inner-core dynamics,particularly the eye and eyewall,while track corrections shift from lower-level variables and the cyclone’s core to broader environmental factors and mid-to upper-level features as the forecast duration increases.These findings demonstrate that CycloneBCNet effectively captures key TC dynamics consistent with meteorological principles,including the dominance of near-surface conditions for intensity and the increasing influence of steering currents on track prediction.
基金supported by the National Research Foundation,Singapore,funded under Energy Research Testbed and Industry Partnership Funding Initiative,part of the Energy Grid(EG)2.0 programme.
文摘Rapid developments in the electronic information industry drive the increased energy usage and carbon emission of data center buildings,prompting the focus on the energy efficiency and environmental sustainability.Expanded operation envelopes of tropical data centers is assessed to analyze the potential for the building energy savings and carbon emission reduction through collaborative analysis of operation modes(OMs),supply air temperature(SAT),and outdoor air temperature(OAT).The OMs of compression vary with the setpoints of SAT,in which the average exergy efficiency of compressors at alternate operation mode is 6.8%and 8.0%lower than that of double and single compression operations.As SAT rises from 20℃to 32℃,the system exergoeconomic factor increases from 5.4%to 8.0%,and the average carbon cost decreases by 36.5%.Additionally,with just an 8.5%increase in exergy cost(i.e.,Case 8)at OAT rising from 30 to 34℃,the high SAT and low refrigerant charges provide considerable exergy cost advantages versus resisting the OAT fluctuations.Dynamic operation strategies are also proposed and compared to cope with the impacts of tropical environments.Compared to the 26℃SAT baseline,the average energy savings are 9.1-14.7%,indicating the ability to fully utilize outdoor and indoor conditions.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2021YFC3000803)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42375149,41975133 and 42205070)the Shanghai Pujiang Program(Grant No.22PJ1415900)。
文摘A modified three-dimensional turbulence parameterization scheme,implemented by replacing the conventional eddydiffusivity formulation with the H-gradient model,has shown good performance in representing the subgrid-scale(SGS)turbulent fluxes associated with convective clouds in idealized tropical cyclone(TC)simulations.To evaluate the capability of the modified scheme in simulating real TCs,two sets of simulations of TC Soudelor(2015),one with the modified scheme and the other with the original scheme,are conducted.Comparisons with observations and coarse-grained results from large eddy simulation benchmarks demonstrate that the modified scheme improves the forecasting of the intensity and structure,as well as the SGS turbulent fluxes of Soudelor.Using the modified turbulence scheme,a TC with stronger intensity,smaller size,a shallower but stronger inflow layer,and a more intense but less inclined convective updraft is simulated.The rapid intensification process and secondary eyewall features can also be captured better by the modified scheme.By analyzing the mechanism by which turbulent transport impacts the intensity and structure of TCs,it is shown that accurately representing the turbulent transport associated with convective clouds above the planetary boundary layer helps to initiate the TC spin-up process.
文摘GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.
文摘Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.
文摘GENERAL Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine is sponsored by Hainan Medical University Journal Publisher,and aims to set up an acdemic communicating platform for scientists all over the world on tropical biomedicine and related sciences.The Journal invites concise reports of original research in all areas of tropical biomedicine and related fields,both experimental and clinical,including modern,traditional and epidemiological studies,from any part of the world.Review articles based primarily on authors'own research on internationally important topics will be accepted.Short communications and letters to the editor are also welcome.Authors are requested to submit a covering letter indicating that their manuscript represents original unpublished material that has not been and will not be published elsewhere(if accepted).This restriction does not apply to results published as abstracts of communications,letters to the editor or as preliminary reports.By submitting a manuscript the authors warrant that they have obtained permission to use any copyrighted or previously published materials.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42175011,42192554,and 42305007.
文摘In this study,numerical experiments with different initial radius of maximum wind(RMW)are performed to study the effects of tropical cyclone(TC)size combined with land-sea contrast on TC motion and low-level wind structure before landfall.By idealized numerical simulations,we found that larger TC arrived coastline earlier than smaller TC,when they started moving from the same position.This is because that the larger TCs not only accelerate earlier but also have greater movement speed than smaller TCs when they approach the coastline.The mechanism responsible for this is that the edge of large TCs reach coastline earlier,thus their movement speed accelerated earlier than small TCs,due to the asymmetries in diabatic heating and radial flow generated by the land-sea contrast.Moreover,when TCs in three experiments all affected by the land-sea contrast,the stronger asymmetries generated in larger TC,thus resulting in faster movement in larger TC.The stronger inflow in western quadrant and weaker inflow(even outflow)in eastern quadrant of larger TC deduced apparently difference in vertical motion and diabatic heating between western and eastern quadrant of TC before landfall.An analysis of potential vorticity tendency proved that the diabatic heating terms were important and considered in determining the TC landward drift because asymmetries in vertical motion and relative vorticity developed due to asymmetric flow.
基金supported partly by the AORI visiting professorship programsupported in part by a Moonshot R&D grant(Grant No.JPMJMS2282-02)from the Japan Science and Technology Agency+1 种基金the JSPS Core-to-Core Program,“International Core-to-Core Project on Global Storm Resolving Analysis”(Grant No.JPJSCCA20220001)JSPS KAKENHI(Grant Nos.20B202,20H05728,and 24K00703)。
文摘Recent studies identify large uncertainties in the projections of tropical cyclone(TC)activity due to discrepancies in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)warming patterns.While observational datasets consistently reveal a La Niña-like warming pattern[0.15℃-0.25℃(10 yr)^(−1) relative cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific],over 80%of CMIP6 models project an erroneous El Niño-like trend.These discrepancies arise from biases in cloud feedbacks,Walker circulation strength,and oceanic upwelling processes.This review examines the key mechanisms shaping observed versus modeled warming patterns,evaluates the complex link between tropical SST patterns and TC activity,and explores the feasibility of storm-resolving models for improving TC projections.We propose that pattern-conditioned TC projections using convection-permitting models,alongside physics-informed interpretations,offer a path forward in reducing uncertainties in future climate predictions.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42225105,No.42201176National Natural Science Foundation of China Basic Science Center for Tibetan Plateau Earth System Project(NSFC BSCTPES Project),No.41988101。
文摘Tropical cyclones(TCs)have profound impacts on socioeconomic conditions and pose substantial risks to lives and property.However,it is still unclear whether the multitimescale changes in TC activity over the past 2000 years in the Northwestern Pacific(NWP)were regulated by Asian dust forcing.Here,we assessed the impact of Asian dust on TC activity using observational data and reconstructed records from the northern and southern NWP.Our correlation analysis of instrumental data from 1954 to 2017 reveals no significant relationship between observed TC activity and Asian dust forcing.Furthermore,we found a meridional dipole pattern of TC variation across the NWP in observations and reconstructions.These finding challenges current explanations that are based on the synchronous changes in TC activity and Asian dust forcing.Alternatively,we propose that the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH)plays a crucial role in driving these meridional dipole patterns in TC variations,as supported by observations and reconstructions.The southwestward extension of an enhanced WPSH intensifies easterly flow,steering TCs westward along its southern edge.This leads to more TC activity in the southern NWP but less in the north,and vice versa when the WPSH is weakened.With the expected strengthening of the WPSH due to global warming,it is vital to consider its impact on NWP TC activity for effective risk-mitigation strategies.
