A systematic safety analysis method is presented to guide the whole analysis process starting with safety analysis requirement and ending with technical and economical evaluation of the knowledge model and the arrange...A systematic safety analysis method is presented to guide the whole analysis process starting with safety analysis requirement and ending with technical and economical evaluation of the knowledge model and the arrangement of sensors. The method consists of five phases, including data acquisition on factual evidence and collecting design, manufacturing, and installation data of equipment; establishing knowledge model; measurable analysis and selection of sensors as well cost evaluation; knowledge description; and overall evaluation. The proposed method is used for safety analysis of hydraulic power generating units and the analysis results validate the method very well.展开更多
Based on the analysis method for tailings dam in upstream raising method presently used in metallurgy and nonferrous metals tailings depository in the world, an effective stress analysis method of seismic response for...Based on the analysis method for tailings dam in upstream raising method presently used in metallurgy and nonferrous metals tailings depository in the world, an effective stress analysis method of seismic response for high tailings dam was developed according to the results of engineering geological exploration, static and dynamic test and stability analysis on Baizhishan tailing dam 113.5 m high. The law of generation, diffusion and dissipation of seismic pore water pressure during and after earthquake was investigated, and the results of tailings dam’s acceleration, seismic dynamic stress and pore water pressure were obtained. The results show that the seismic stability and liquefaction resistance of high tailings dam are strengthened remarkably, and the scope and depth of liquefaction area at the top of dam are reduced greatly. The interior stress is compressive stress, the stress level of every element is less than 1.0 and the safety coefficient of every element is greater than 1.0. The safety coefficient against liquefaction of every element of tailing dam is greater than 1.5 according to the effective stress analysis of seismic response by finite element method. The calculated results prove that liquefaction is the main reason of seismic failure of high tailing dams, and the effect of seismic inertia forces on high tailing dams’ stability during earthquake is secondary reason.展开更多
Based on the nonlinear constitutive equation,a piezoelectric semiconductor(PSC)fiber under axial loads and Ohmic contact boundary conditions is investigated.The analytical solutions of electromechanical fields are der...Based on the nonlinear constitutive equation,a piezoelectric semiconductor(PSC)fiber under axial loads and Ohmic contact boundary conditions is investigated.The analytical solutions of electromechanical fields are derived by the homotopy analysis method(HAM),indicating that the HAM is efficient for the nonlinear analysis of PSC fibers,along with a rapid rate of convergence.Furthermore,the nonlinear characteristics of electromechanical fields are discussed through numerical results.It is shown that the asymmetrical distribution of electromechanical fields is obvious under a symmetrical load,and the piezoelectric effect is weakened by an applied electric field.With the increase in the initial carrier concentration,the electric potential decreases,and owing to the screen-ing effect of electrons,the distribution of electromechanical fields tends to be symmetrical.展开更多
Heavy-duty machine tools are composed of many subsystems with different functions,and their reliability is governed by the reliabilities of these subsystems.It is important to rank the weaknesses of subsystems and ide...Heavy-duty machine tools are composed of many subsystems with different functions,and their reliability is governed by the reliabilities of these subsystems.It is important to rank the weaknesses of subsystems and identify the weakest subsystem to optimize products and improve their reliabilities.However,traditional ranking methods based on failure mode effect and critical analysis(FMECA)does not consider the complex maintenance of products.Herein,a weakness ranking method for the subsystems of heavy-duty machine tools is proposed based on generalized FMECA information.In this method,eight reliability indexes,including maintainability and maintenance cost,are considered in the generalized FMECA information.Subsequently,the cognition best worst method is used to calculate the weight of each screened index,and the weaknesses of the subsystems are ranked using a technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution.Finally,based on the failure data collected from certain domestic heavy-duty horizontal lathes,the weakness ranking result of the subsystems is obtained to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.An improved weakness ranking method that can comprehensively analyze and identify weak subsystems is proposed herein for designing and improving the reliability of complex electromechanical products.展开更多
The size-dependent effect on the biaxial and shear nonlinear buckling analysis of an isotropic and orthotropic micro-plate based on the surface stress, the modified couple stress theory （MCST）, and the nonlocal elas...The size-dependent effect on the biaxial and shear nonlinear buckling analysis of an isotropic and orthotropic micro-plate based on the surface stress, the modified couple stress theory （MCST）, and the nonlocal elasticity theories using the differential quadrature method （DQM） is presented. Main advantages of the MCST over the classical theory （CT） are the inclusion of the asymmetric couple stress tensor and the consideration of only one material length scale parameter. Based on the nonlinear von Karman assumption, the governing equations of equilibrium for the micro-classical plate consid- ering midplane displacements are derived based on the minimum principle of potential energy. Using the DQM, the biaxial and shear critical buckling loads of the micro-plate for various boundary conditions are obtained. Accuracy of the obtained results is validated by comparing the solutions with those reported in the literature. A parametric study is conducted to show the effects of the aspect ratio, the side-to-thickness ratio, Eringen＇s nonlocal parameter, the material length scale parameter, Young＇s modulus of the surface layer, the surface residual stress, the polymer matrix coefficients, and various boundary conditions on the dimensionless uniaxial, biaxial, and shear critical buckling loads. The results indicate that the critical buckling loads are strongly sensitive to Eringen＇s nonlocal parameter, the material length scale parameter, and the surface residual stress effects, while the effect of Young＇s modulus of the surface layer on the critical buckling load is negligible. Also, considering the size dependent effect causes the increase in the stiffness of the orthotropic micro-plate. The results show that the critical biaxial buckling load increases with an increase in G12/E2 and vice versa for E1/E2. It is shown that the nonlinear biaxial buckling ratio decreases as the aspect ratio increases and vice versa for the buckling amplitude. Because of the most lightweight micro-composite materials with high strength/weight and stiffness/weight ratios, it is anticipated that the results of the present work are useful in experimental characterization of the mechanical properties of micro-composite plates in the aircraft industry and other engineering applications.展开更多
The Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) is a fast, non-contact, no sample preparation analytic technology;it is very suitable for on-line analysis of alloy composition. In the copper smelting industry, analysi...The Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) is a fast, non-contact, no sample preparation analytic technology;it is very suitable for on-line analysis of alloy composition. In the copper smelting industry, analysis and control of the copper alloy concentration affect the quality of the products greatly, so LIBS is an efficient quantitative analysis tech- nology in the copper smelting industry. But for the lead brass, the components of Pb, Al and Ni elements are very low and the atomic emission lines are easily submerged under copper complex characteristic spectral lines because of the matrix effects. So it is difficult to get the online quantitative result of these important elements. In this paper, both the partial least squares (PLS) method and the calibration curve (CC) method are used to quantitatively analyze the laser induced breakdown spectroscopy data which is obtained from the standard lead brass alloy samples. Both the major and trace elements were quantitatively analyzed. By comparing the two results of the different calibration method, some useful results were obtained: both for major and trace elements, the PLS method was better than the CC method in quantitative analysis. And the regression coefficient of PLS method is compared with the original spectral data with background interference to explain the advantage of the PLS method in the LIBS quantitative analysis. Results proved that the PLS method used in laser induced breakdown spectroscopy was suitable for simultaneous quantitative analysis of different content elements in copper smelting industry.展开更多
Horizontal well drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing are key technologies for the development of shale gas reservoirs.Instantaneous acquisition of hydraulic fracture parameters is crucial for evaluating fract...Horizontal well drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing are key technologies for the development of shale gas reservoirs.Instantaneous acquisition of hydraulic fracture parameters is crucial for evaluating fracturing effectiveness,optimizing processes,and predicting gas productivity.This paper establishes a transient flow model for shale gas wells based on the boundary element method,achieving the characterization of stimulated reservoir volume for a single stage.By integrating pressure monitoring data following the pumping shut-in period of hydraulic fracturing for well testing interpretation,a workflow for inverting fracture parameters of shale gas wells is established.This new method eliminates the need for prolonged production testing and can interpret parameters of individual hydraulic fracture segments,offering significant advantages over the conventional pressure transient analysismethod.The practical application of thismethodology was conducted on 10 shale gaswellswithin the Changning shale gas block of Sichuan,China.The results show a high correlation between the interpreted single-stage total length and surface area of hydraulic fractures and the outcomes of gas production profile tests.Additionally,significant correlations are observed between these parameters and cluster number,horizontal stress difference,and natural fracture density.This demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed fracture parameter inversion method and the feasibility of field application.The findings of this study aim to provide solutions and references for the inversion of fracture parameters in shale gas wells.展开更多
A two parameter mathematical model was developed to find the concentration for immobilized enzyme systems in porous spherical particles. This model contains a non-linear term related to reversible Michaelies-Menten ki...A two parameter mathematical model was developed to find the concentration for immobilized enzyme systems in porous spherical particles. This model contains a non-linear term related to reversible Michaelies-Menten kinetics. Analytical expression pertaining to the substrate concentration was reported for all possible values of Thiele module φ and α . In this work, we report the theoretically evaluated steady-state effectiveness factor for immobilized enzyme systems in porous spherical particles. These analytical results were found to be in good agreement with numerical results. Moreover, herein we employ new “Homotopy analysis method” (HAM) to solve non-linear reaction/diffusion equation.展开更多
Magnetic shielding is very important in the design of a high-power dc comparator. This paper addressed the application of magnetic circuit method to calculate the magnetic shielding effectiveness of high-power dc comp...Magnetic shielding is very important in the design of a high-power dc comparator. This paper addressed the application of magnetic circuit method to calculate the magnetic shielding effectiveness of high-power dc comparators when an external radial magnetic field is added. The mathematical relationship between the magnetic shielding effectiveness and the parameters of the magnetic shielding body were obtained. To verify the validity of the calculation method, we developped a procedure to measure the magnetic shielding effectiveness of the magnetic body by measuring the induction voltage of the detection winding instead of the magnetic intensity at a point in the magnetic shielding body, making the manipulation much easier. The result calculated with the magnetic circuit method turns out to be closer to the measured one compared with that calculated with a conventional algorithm proposed by Ren, suggesting that the magnetic circuit method is an applicable tool for estimating the toroidal cavity magnetic shielding effectiveness of a heavy current comparator when a radial magnetic field is added.展开更多
Currently, the estimated value of the effective reproduction number (ERN), which is an index for grasping the COVID-19 infection status, is used for important planning and evaluation of infection prevention measures. ...Currently, the estimated value of the effective reproduction number (ERN), which is an index for grasping the COVID-19 infection status, is used for important planning and evaluation of infection prevention measures. Since ERN in the Sequential SIR model fluctuates in multiple dimensions due to changes in the surrounding environment, it is difficult to set the appropriate accuracy of the uncertainty region of the estimated data. The challenge in this study is to build a mathematical model of infectious disease according to the characteristics and data characteristics of the infectious disease and select an appropriate estimation method. Highly accurate quantitative research that analyzes the validity of “how infectious diseases prevail” from an academic point of view is the key to prediction and estimation in appropriate infection situation analysis. In this study, we adopted a statistical multivariate analysis method (T method) that enables evaluation and prediction of important factors related to ERN estimation and analysis of phenomena that change in real time (time series analysis). It was clarified that it is possible to estimate with higher accuracy by applying the T method to the estimated value of ERN by the current SIR mathematical model.展开更多
Based on the principle of transient perturbation analysis,in this paper,a method to objectively determine the weather pattern formed by sea fog is provided.On the basis of the classification results,the circulation si...Based on the principle of transient perturbation analysis,in this paper,a method to objectively determine the weather pattern formed by sea fog is provided.On the basis of the classification results,the circulation situation,divergence and vertical velocity field,and the vertical profile of temperature and humidity are synthesized and analyzed.The basic characteristics of the circulation and physical field of sea fog under low pressure control(L type sea fog)are obtained,and the results are compared with the sea fog under the control of high pressure(H type sea fog):a)L type sea fogs potential height anomaly disturbance is mainly manifested in the low layer,and its average value is-65.66 gpm,gradually weakening upward;b)L type sea fogs inversion structure is weaker than H type sea fogs when it occurs,the fog layer is thicker and the high relative humidity level is high over the fog layer,while the H type sea fogs fog layer has a relatively obvious dry layer;c)L sea fog has three layers of structure at the vertical direction.The first layer 1000-950 hPa is convergence accompanied by weak rise and subsidence,the second layer 950-850 hPa is divergence accompanied by weak subsidence,and the third layer 850 to 500hPa is gradually strengthened.While there are two layer structures of the H type sea fog.1000 hPa is divergence accompanied by weak rising and sinking movement,950-500 hPa is a uniform subsidence movement.d)Probability density statistical analysis further quantified the vertical movement of L and H type sea fog and the distribution of relative humidity in each layer.These conclusions provide an important reference for forecasting the sea fog in the northwest of the Yellow Sea under the condition of low pressure circulation in summer.展开更多
BACKGROUND Although substantial evidence supports the advantages of cold snare polypectomy(CSP)in terms of polypectomy efficacy and reduced postoperative adverse events,few studies have examined the cost differences b...BACKGROUND Although substantial evidence supports the advantages of cold snare polypectomy(CSP)in terms of polypectomy efficacy and reduced postoperative adverse events,few studies have examined the cost differences between CSP and traditional endoscopic mucosal resection(EMR)for the treatment of intestinal polyps.AIM To compare the efficacy-cost of EMR and CSP in the treatment of intestinal polyps.METHODS A total of 100 patients with intestinal polyps were included in the retrospective data of our hospital from April 2022 to May 2023.According to the treatment methods,they were divided into EMR(n=46)group and CSP(n=54)group.The baseline data of the two groups were balanced by 1:1 propensity score matching(PSM),and the cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on the two groups after matching.The recurrence rate of the two groups of patients was followed up for 1 year,and they were divided into recurrence group and non-recurrence group according to whether they recurred.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the influencing factors affecting the recurrence of intestinal polyps after endoscopic resection.RESULTS Significant disparities were observed in the number of polyps and smoking background between the two groups before PSM(P<0.05).Following PSM,the number of polyps and smoking history were well balanced between the EMR and CSP groups.The direct cost incurred by the CSP group was markedly higher than that incurred by the EMR group.Concurrently,the cost-effectiveness ratio in the CSP group was substantially reduced when juxtaposed with that in the EMR group(P<0.05).Upon completion of the 1-year follow-up,the rate of recurrence after endoscopic intestinal polypectomy was 38.00%.Multivariate methods revealed that age≥60 years,male sex,number of polyps≥3,and pathological type of adenoma were risk factors for recurrence after endoscopic intestinal polypectomy(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION CSP was more cost-effective for the treatment of intestinal polyps.An age≥60 years,male sex,having a number of polyps≥3,and pathological type of adenoma are independent influencing factors for recurrence.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51175284)the Science and Technology Program of Education Committee of Beijing Municipality(No.SQKM201211232002)
文摘A systematic safety analysis method is presented to guide the whole analysis process starting with safety analysis requirement and ending with technical and economical evaluation of the knowledge model and the arrangement of sensors. The method consists of five phases, including data acquisition on factual evidence and collecting design, manufacturing, and installation data of equipment; establishing knowledge model; measurable analysis and selection of sensors as well cost evaluation; knowledge description; and overall evaluation. The proposed method is used for safety analysis of hydraulic power generating units and the analysis results validate the method very well.
基金Projects(03JJY3078, 04JJ40032) supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China project(03A006) supported by Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Education Department, China
文摘Based on the analysis method for tailings dam in upstream raising method presently used in metallurgy and nonferrous metals tailings depository in the world, an effective stress analysis method of seismic response for high tailings dam was developed according to the results of engineering geological exploration, static and dynamic test and stability analysis on Baizhishan tailing dam 113.5 m high. The law of generation, diffusion and dissipation of seismic pore water pressure during and after earthquake was investigated, and the results of tailings dam’s acceleration, seismic dynamic stress and pore water pressure were obtained. The results show that the seismic stability and liquefaction resistance of high tailings dam are strengthened remarkably, and the scope and depth of liquefaction area at the top of dam are reduced greatly. The interior stress is compressive stress, the stress level of every element is less than 1.0 and the safety coefficient of every element is greater than 1.0. The safety coefficient against liquefaction of every element of tailing dam is greater than 1.5 according to the effective stress analysis of seismic response by finite element method. The calculated results prove that liquefaction is the main reason of seismic failure of high tailing dams, and the effect of seismic inertia forces on high tailing dams’ stability during earthquake is secondary reason.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11702251,12002316)。
文摘Based on the nonlinear constitutive equation,a piezoelectric semiconductor(PSC)fiber under axial loads and Ohmic contact boundary conditions is investigated.The analytical solutions of electromechanical fields are derived by the homotopy analysis method(HAM),indicating that the HAM is efficient for the nonlinear analysis of PSC fibers,along with a rapid rate of convergence.Furthermore,the nonlinear characteristics of electromechanical fields are discussed through numerical results.It is shown that the asymmetrical distribution of electromechanical fields is obvious under a symmetrical load,and the piezoelectric effect is weakened by an applied electric field.With the increase in the initial carrier concentration,the electric potential decreases,and owing to the screen-ing effect of electrons,the distribution of electromechanical fields tends to be symmetrical.
基金Supported by National Nat ural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51675227,51975249)Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Funds(Grant Nos.20180201007GX,20190302017GX)+2 种基金Technology Development and Research of Jilin Province(Grant No.2019C037-01)Changchun Science and Technology Planning Project(Grant No.19SS011)National Science and technology Major Project(Grant No.2014ZX04015031).
文摘Heavy-duty machine tools are composed of many subsystems with different functions,and their reliability is governed by the reliabilities of these subsystems.It is important to rank the weaknesses of subsystems and identify the weakest subsystem to optimize products and improve their reliabilities.However,traditional ranking methods based on failure mode effect and critical analysis(FMECA)does not consider the complex maintenance of products.Herein,a weakness ranking method for the subsystems of heavy-duty machine tools is proposed based on generalized FMECA information.In this method,eight reliability indexes,including maintainability and maintenance cost,are considered in the generalized FMECA information.Subsequently,the cognition best worst method is used to calculate the weight of each screened index,and the weaknesses of the subsystems are ranked using a technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution.Finally,based on the failure data collected from certain domestic heavy-duty horizontal lathes,the weakness ranking result of the subsystems is obtained to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.An improved weakness ranking method that can comprehensively analyze and identify weak subsystems is proposed herein for designing and improving the reliability of complex electromechanical products.
基金supported by the Iranian Nanotechnology Development Committee and the University of Kashan(No.363452/10)
文摘The size-dependent effect on the biaxial and shear nonlinear buckling analysis of an isotropic and orthotropic micro-plate based on the surface stress, the modified couple stress theory （MCST）, and the nonlocal elasticity theories using the differential quadrature method （DQM） is presented. Main advantages of the MCST over the classical theory （CT） are the inclusion of the asymmetric couple stress tensor and the consideration of only one material length scale parameter. Based on the nonlinear von Karman assumption, the governing equations of equilibrium for the micro-classical plate consid- ering midplane displacements are derived based on the minimum principle of potential energy. Using the DQM, the biaxial and shear critical buckling loads of the micro-plate for various boundary conditions are obtained. Accuracy of the obtained results is validated by comparing the solutions with those reported in the literature. A parametric study is conducted to show the effects of the aspect ratio, the side-to-thickness ratio, Eringen＇s nonlocal parameter, the material length scale parameter, Young＇s modulus of the surface layer, the surface residual stress, the polymer matrix coefficients, and various boundary conditions on the dimensionless uniaxial, biaxial, and shear critical buckling loads. The results indicate that the critical buckling loads are strongly sensitive to Eringen＇s nonlocal parameter, the material length scale parameter, and the surface residual stress effects, while the effect of Young＇s modulus of the surface layer on the critical buckling load is negligible. Also, considering the size dependent effect causes the increase in the stiffness of the orthotropic micro-plate. The results show that the critical biaxial buckling load increases with an increase in G12/E2 and vice versa for E1/E2. It is shown that the nonlinear biaxial buckling ratio decreases as the aspect ratio increases and vice versa for the buckling amplitude. Because of the most lightweight micro-composite materials with high strength/weight and stiffness/weight ratios, it is anticipated that the results of the present work are useful in experimental characterization of the mechanical properties of micro-composite plates in the aircraft industry and other engineering applications.
文摘The Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) is a fast, non-contact, no sample preparation analytic technology;it is very suitable for on-line analysis of alloy composition. In the copper smelting industry, analysis and control of the copper alloy concentration affect the quality of the products greatly, so LIBS is an efficient quantitative analysis tech- nology in the copper smelting industry. But for the lead brass, the components of Pb, Al and Ni elements are very low and the atomic emission lines are easily submerged under copper complex characteristic spectral lines because of the matrix effects. So it is difficult to get the online quantitative result of these important elements. In this paper, both the partial least squares (PLS) method and the calibration curve (CC) method are used to quantitatively analyze the laser induced breakdown spectroscopy data which is obtained from the standard lead brass alloy samples. Both the major and trace elements were quantitatively analyzed. By comparing the two results of the different calibration method, some useful results were obtained: both for major and trace elements, the PLS method was better than the CC method in quantitative analysis. And the regression coefficient of PLS method is compared with the original spectral data with background interference to explain the advantage of the PLS method in the LIBS quantitative analysis. Results proved that the PLS method used in laser induced breakdown spectroscopy was suitable for simultaneous quantitative analysis of different content elements in copper smelting industry.
基金funded by the Science and Technology Cooperation Project of the CNPC-SWPU Innovation Alliance,grant numbers“2020CX020202,2020CX030202 and 2020CX010403”.
文摘Horizontal well drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing are key technologies for the development of shale gas reservoirs.Instantaneous acquisition of hydraulic fracture parameters is crucial for evaluating fracturing effectiveness,optimizing processes,and predicting gas productivity.This paper establishes a transient flow model for shale gas wells based on the boundary element method,achieving the characterization of stimulated reservoir volume for a single stage.By integrating pressure monitoring data following the pumping shut-in period of hydraulic fracturing for well testing interpretation,a workflow for inverting fracture parameters of shale gas wells is established.This new method eliminates the need for prolonged production testing and can interpret parameters of individual hydraulic fracture segments,offering significant advantages over the conventional pressure transient analysismethod.The practical application of thismethodology was conducted on 10 shale gaswellswithin the Changning shale gas block of Sichuan,China.The results show a high correlation between the interpreted single-stage total length and surface area of hydraulic fractures and the outcomes of gas production profile tests.Additionally,significant correlations are observed between these parameters and cluster number,horizontal stress difference,and natural fracture density.This demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed fracture parameter inversion method and the feasibility of field application.The findings of this study aim to provide solutions and references for the inversion of fracture parameters in shale gas wells.
文摘A two parameter mathematical model was developed to find the concentration for immobilized enzyme systems in porous spherical particles. This model contains a non-linear term related to reversible Michaelies-Menten kinetics. Analytical expression pertaining to the substrate concentration was reported for all possible values of Thiele module φ and α . In this work, we report the theoretically evaluated steady-state effectiveness factor for immobilized enzyme systems in porous spherical particles. These analytical results were found to be in good agreement with numerical results. Moreover, herein we employ new “Homotopy analysis method” (HAM) to solve non-linear reaction/diffusion equation.
基金Funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China under the grant number 50277018.
文摘Magnetic shielding is very important in the design of a high-power dc comparator. This paper addressed the application of magnetic circuit method to calculate the magnetic shielding effectiveness of high-power dc comparators when an external radial magnetic field is added. The mathematical relationship between the magnetic shielding effectiveness and the parameters of the magnetic shielding body were obtained. To verify the validity of the calculation method, we developped a procedure to measure the magnetic shielding effectiveness of the magnetic body by measuring the induction voltage of the detection winding instead of the magnetic intensity at a point in the magnetic shielding body, making the manipulation much easier. The result calculated with the magnetic circuit method turns out to be closer to the measured one compared with that calculated with a conventional algorithm proposed by Ren, suggesting that the magnetic circuit method is an applicable tool for estimating the toroidal cavity magnetic shielding effectiveness of a heavy current comparator when a radial magnetic field is added.
文摘Currently, the estimated value of the effective reproduction number (ERN), which is an index for grasping the COVID-19 infection status, is used for important planning and evaluation of infection prevention measures. Since ERN in the Sequential SIR model fluctuates in multiple dimensions due to changes in the surrounding environment, it is difficult to set the appropriate accuracy of the uncertainty region of the estimated data. The challenge in this study is to build a mathematical model of infectious disease according to the characteristics and data characteristics of the infectious disease and select an appropriate estimation method. Highly accurate quantitative research that analyzes the validity of “how infectious diseases prevail” from an academic point of view is the key to prediction and estimation in appropriate infection situation analysis. In this study, we adopted a statistical multivariate analysis method (T method) that enables evaluation and prediction of important factors related to ERN estimation and analysis of phenomena that change in real time (time series analysis). It was clarified that it is possible to estimate with higher accuracy by applying the T method to the estimated value of ERN by the current SIR mathematical model.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41576108 and No.41605006)Natural Science Foundation project of Shandong Province(No.ZR2016DB26).
文摘Based on the principle of transient perturbation analysis,in this paper,a method to objectively determine the weather pattern formed by sea fog is provided.On the basis of the classification results,the circulation situation,divergence and vertical velocity field,and the vertical profile of temperature and humidity are synthesized and analyzed.The basic characteristics of the circulation and physical field of sea fog under low pressure control(L type sea fog)are obtained,and the results are compared with the sea fog under the control of high pressure(H type sea fog):a)L type sea fogs potential height anomaly disturbance is mainly manifested in the low layer,and its average value is-65.66 gpm,gradually weakening upward;b)L type sea fogs inversion structure is weaker than H type sea fogs when it occurs,the fog layer is thicker and the high relative humidity level is high over the fog layer,while the H type sea fogs fog layer has a relatively obvious dry layer;c)L sea fog has three layers of structure at the vertical direction.The first layer 1000-950 hPa is convergence accompanied by weak rise and subsidence,the second layer 950-850 hPa is divergence accompanied by weak subsidence,and the third layer 850 to 500hPa is gradually strengthened.While there are two layer structures of the H type sea fog.1000 hPa is divergence accompanied by weak rising and sinking movement,950-500 hPa is a uniform subsidence movement.d)Probability density statistical analysis further quantified the vertical movement of L and H type sea fog and the distribution of relative humidity in each layer.These conclusions provide an important reference for forecasting the sea fog in the northwest of the Yellow Sea under the condition of low pressure circulation in summer.
文摘BACKGROUND Although substantial evidence supports the advantages of cold snare polypectomy(CSP)in terms of polypectomy efficacy and reduced postoperative adverse events,few studies have examined the cost differences between CSP and traditional endoscopic mucosal resection(EMR)for the treatment of intestinal polyps.AIM To compare the efficacy-cost of EMR and CSP in the treatment of intestinal polyps.METHODS A total of 100 patients with intestinal polyps were included in the retrospective data of our hospital from April 2022 to May 2023.According to the treatment methods,they were divided into EMR(n=46)group and CSP(n=54)group.The baseline data of the two groups were balanced by 1:1 propensity score matching(PSM),and the cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on the two groups after matching.The recurrence rate of the two groups of patients was followed up for 1 year,and they were divided into recurrence group and non-recurrence group according to whether they recurred.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the influencing factors affecting the recurrence of intestinal polyps after endoscopic resection.RESULTS Significant disparities were observed in the number of polyps and smoking background between the two groups before PSM(P<0.05).Following PSM,the number of polyps and smoking history were well balanced between the EMR and CSP groups.The direct cost incurred by the CSP group was markedly higher than that incurred by the EMR group.Concurrently,the cost-effectiveness ratio in the CSP group was substantially reduced when juxtaposed with that in the EMR group(P<0.05).Upon completion of the 1-year follow-up,the rate of recurrence after endoscopic intestinal polypectomy was 38.00%.Multivariate methods revealed that age≥60 years,male sex,number of polyps≥3,and pathological type of adenoma were risk factors for recurrence after endoscopic intestinal polypectomy(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION CSP was more cost-effective for the treatment of intestinal polyps.An age≥60 years,male sex,having a number of polyps≥3,and pathological type of adenoma are independent influencing factors for recurrence.
