To estimate the time delay between the planetary temperature change and the change of the incoming solar radiation fraction absorbed by the ocean and the atmosphere, the analytical energy balance model is presented. T...To estimate the time delay between the planetary temperature change and the change of the incoming solar radiation fraction absorbed by the ocean and the atmosphere, the analytical energy balance model is presented. The model generalization allows of using averaged data for model parameterization. Using the model, the time delay is investigated on four model cases of absorbed radiation change. The interconnections among the time delay, the planetary thermal inertia and the ocean active layer depth are established.展开更多
The Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season during the summer of 2020,prompting investigation into the role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in simulating this extreme event.T...The Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season during the summer of 2020,prompting investigation into the role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in simulating this extreme event.Through comparative analysis of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled(CP)and atmosphere-only(WRF)simulations,the aim of this study was to elucidate the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon.Results indicate that CP effectively reproduced the observed sea surface temperature spatial distribution and its daily variation during the period from 25 June to 25 July 2020,and notably reduced the wet biases over the YHRV when compared to WRF simulations.This improvement in representation was manifested in the observed rainfall spatial distribution and daily variability.The wet biases simulated by WRF were associated with a stronger 200-hPa westerly jet and a more westward-positioned western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)with more intense 500-hPa winds and a stronger 850-hPa circulation.However,these biases were significantly reduced in CP simulations.Mechanism analysis revealed that regional ocean-atmosphere coupling over the western Northwest Pacific influenced surface turbulent heat fluxes and atmospheric instability,thereby modulating the intensity and position of the WNPSH and associated circulation subsystems at different levels.Moreover,adjustments in land-sea thermal contrast induced by ocean-atmosphere coupling impacted YHRV precipitation by altering East Asian circulation systems.These findings highlight the significant role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in enhancing the simulation and understanding of extreme mei-yu events over East Asia.展开更多
A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed...A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.展开更多
El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive an...El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.展开更多
This paper investigates the processes behind the double ITCZ phenomenon, a common problem in Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (CGCMs), using a CGCM—FGCM-0 (Flexible General Circulat...This paper investigates the processes behind the double ITCZ phenomenon, a common problem in Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (CGCMs), using a CGCM—FGCM-0 (Flexible General Circulation Model, version 0). The double ITCZ mode develops rapidly during the ?rst two years of the integration and becomes a perennial phenomenon afterwards in the model. By way of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) for SST, sea surface pressure, and sea surface wind, some air-sea interactions are analyzed. These interactions prompt the anomalous signals that appear at the beginning of the coupling to develop rapidly. There are two possible reasons, proved by sensitivity experiments: (1) the overestimated east-west gradient of SST in the equatorial Paci?c in the ocean spin-up process, and (2) the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast in CCM3 (the Community Climate Model, Version Three). The overestimated east-west gradient of SST brings the anomalous equatorial easterly. The anomalous easterly, a?ected by the Coriolis force in the Southern Hemisphere, turns into an anomalous westerly in a broad area south of the equator and is enhanced by atmospheric anomalous circulation due to the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast simulated by CCM3. The anomalous westerly leads to anomalous warm advection that makes the SST warm in the southeast Paci?c. The double ITCZ phenomenon in the CGCM is a result of a series of nonlocal and nonlinear adjustment processes in the coupled system, which can be traced to the uncoupled models, oceanic component, and atmospheric component. The zonal gradient of the equatorial SST is too large in the ocean component and the amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast is too low in the atmosphere component.展开更多
In this paper, ocean-atmosphere coupled regimes are identified on the basis of SVD analysis, cluster analysis and composite analysis. The coupled regimes in cold seasons are identified as the clusters of the ocean-atm...In this paper, ocean-atmosphere coupled regimes are identified on the basis of SVD analysis, cluster analysis and composite analysis. The coupled regimes in cold seasons are identified as the clusters of the ocean-atmosphere coupled states in a low dimensional phase space spanned by the first four SVD modes. Three coupled regimes are found. The first two coupled regimes reflect the ENSO episodes and the accompanying PNA patterns. The third regime, i.e., EAWM regime, is characterized by the strong EAWM activity and the specific SST anomaly. The composite analysis gives further evidences to the identification of EAWM regime and also demonstrates the dynamical process of its formation. The anomaly pattern of the tropical Pacific SSTA in the strong EAWM year differs significantly from that of the La Nina year.展开更多
In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modelof the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with t...In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modelof the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with that bythe corresponding IAP AGCM which uses the climatic sea surface temperature as the boundary condition in 25 yearintegrations.The mean climatic states of January and July simulated by IAP CGCM are in good agreement with that by IAPAGCM, i.e., no serious 'climate drift' occurs in the CGCM simulation. A comparison of the results from AGCM andCGCM indicates that the standard deviation of the monthly averaged sea level pressure simulated by IAP CGCM ismuch greater than that by IAP AGCM in tropical region. In addition, both Southern Oscillation (SO) and NorthAtlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be found in the CGCM simulation for January, but these two oscillations do not existin the AGCM simulation.The interannual variability of climate may be classified into two typest one is the variation of the annual mean,another is the variation of the annual amplitude. The ocean-atmosphere interaction mainly increases the first type ofvariability. By means of the rotated EOF, the most important patterns corresponding to the two types of interannualvariability are found to have different spatial and temporal characteristics.展开更多
A large number of papers have been published and great efforts have been made in the recent 20 years by the Chinese oceanographic and meteorological scientists in the ocean-atmosphere interaction studies. The present ...A large number of papers have been published and great efforts have been made in the recent 20 years by the Chinese oceanographic and meteorological scientists in the ocean-atmosphere interaction studies. The present paper is an overview of the major achievements made by Chinese scientists aad their collaborators in studies of larger scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the following oceans： the South China Sea, the Tropical Pacific, the indian Ocean and the North Pacific. Many interesting phenomena and dynamic mechanisms have been discovered and studied in these papers. These achievements have improved our understanding of climate variability and have great implications in climate prediction, and thus are highly relevant to the ongoing international Climate Variability and Predictability （CLIVAR） efforts.展开更多
With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly （NCEPWSA） and FSU wind stress anomaly （FSUWSA） is analyzed, and the predi...With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly （NCEPWSA） and FSU wind stress anomaly （FSUWSA） is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model （ZC coupled model） with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 E1 Nino 6 to 8 months ahead, further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 E1 Nino event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.展开更多
This study revises Weare＇s latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated theoretic analysis. The revised Weare＇s scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak＇s scheme. The Zebi...This study revises Weare＇s latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated theoretic analysis. The revised Weare＇s scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak＇s scheme. The Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model, initialized by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis of wind stress anomaly at 925 hPa, is referred to as the ZCW coupled model. The atmosphere models of the ZCW coupled model that use Zebiak＇s scheme and the revised Weare＇s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, respectively. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models that use Zebiak＇s scheme and the revised Weare＇s scheme are referred to as the ZCWoand ZCWN coupled models, respectively. The simulations between the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models and between the ZCW0 and ZCWN coupled models are analyzed. The results include： （1） The evolution of heat, meridional wind and divergence anomalies simulated by similar ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, although the magnitudes of the former are larger than those of the latter; （2） The prediction skill of the Nino3 index from 1982 to 1999 by the ZCWN coupled model shows improvement compared with those by the ZCW0 coupled model; （3） The analysis of E1 Nino events in 1982/1983, 1986/1987, and 1997/1998 and La Nifia events in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1998/2000 suggests that the ZCWN coupled model is better than the ZCW0 coupled model in predicting warm event evolution and cold event generation. The results also show the disadvantage of the ZCWN coupled model for predicting E1 Nino.展开更多
A fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model is applied to highlight the mechanism of the long-term variability （including decadal and longer time scales） in the Pacific Ocean. We are interested in the effect of ocean-atm...A fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model is applied to highlight the mechanism of the long-term variability （including decadal and longer time scales） in the Pacific Ocean. We are interested in the effect of ocean-atmosphere coupling of different regions during these processes. The control run successfully simulates the Pacific long-term variability, whose leading modes are the Pacific （inter） Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and the North Pacific mode （NPM）. Furthermore, three numerical experiments are conducted, shutting down the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the North Pacific, the tropical Pacific, and the South Pacific, respectively. The results show that regional ocean-atmosphere coupling is not only important to the strength of local long-term SST variability but also has an influence on the variability further afield. In both the tropical Pacific and North Pacific, this local effect is the main control, which is much more obvious in the tropical regions. The existence of the PDO is extremely dependent on the coupling in the tropical Pacific. However, extratropical coupling, in particular that in the North Pacific, is also important to form its spatial pattern and strengthen the variability in some tropical areas. For the NPM, its existence is primarily determined by the coupling in the North Pacific.展开更多
A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to...A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.展开更多
The North American Dipole(NAD)is a north-south seesaw pattern of sea level pressure anomalies over the western tropical North Atlantic and northeastern North America.Previous observational studies have demonstrated th...The North American Dipole(NAD)is a north-south seesaw pattern of sea level pressure anomalies over the western tropical North Atlantic and northeastern North America.Previous observational studies have demonstrated that the NAD can affect the outbreak of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events.The present study analyzed the NAD-ENSO relationship as simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model-namely,the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,gridpoint version 2(FGOALS-g2).Results indicated that the model can replicate a distinct dipole comprised of a low over northeastern North America and a high over the western tropical North Atlantic,which is the signature feature of the NAD.Further analysis verified that the winter NAD can initiate the central equatorial Pacific warming in the subsequent winter by effectively forcing an anticyclonic flow and sea surface temperature(SST)warming over the northeastern subtropical Pacific(NESP)during late winter or early spring.In addition,the probability of an El Niño event was increased by a factor of 1.8 in the assimilation experiment with the NAD.By comparison,the winter Northern Atlantic Oscillation had no significant impact on the occurrence of ENSO a year later owing to its failure to induce the SST and surface wind anomalies over the NESP.展开更多
The quasi-geostrophic atmospheric and oceanic equations of momentum and thermodynamics with dissipation factors are used to create a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model describing the large-scale shallow-water motio...The quasi-geostrophic atmospheric and oceanic equations of momentum and thermodynamics with dissipation factors are used to create a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model describing the large-scale shallow-water motion. We discuss the ocean-atmosphere coupling effect in mid-high and low latitudes separately and analyze characteristics of which the oscillatory periods of coupled low-frequency modes (ocean mode) vary with the coupling frequency and latitudinal number. This can interpret the correlation between low-frequency oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interaction. Then from the dispersion curves of atmosphere and ocean, we reveal effect of the coupling strength on the propagation of Rossby waves. The convection mechanism between the two modes is also discussed in view of the slowly varying wave train.The results show that Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction play a stable rule in oceanic Rossby waves, the period of coupled low-frequency mode grows with the increment of the coupling frequency. The larger the latitudinal number is, the more rapidly it grows. When the coupling frequency tends to critical value, the oceanic Rossby waves become static. When the ocean-atmosphere coupling strength grows to some degree, the propagation of oceanic Rossby waves will become opposite to its original direction. One part of the oceanic Rossby waves is converted into atmospheric Rossby waves, the energy conversion coefficient is also solved out.展开更多
An extended ocean-atmosphere coupled characteristic system including thermodynamic physical processes in ocean mixed layer is formulated in order to describe SST explicitly and remove possible limitation of ocean-atmo...An extended ocean-atmosphere coupled characteristic system including thermodynamic physical processes in ocean mixed layer is formulated in order to describe SST explicitly and remove possible limitation of ocean-atmosphere coupling assumption in hydrodynamic ENSO models. It is revealed that there is a kind of abrupt nonlinear characteristic behaviour, which relates to rapid onset and intermittency of El Nino events, on the second order slow time scale due to the nonlinear interaction between a linear unstable low-frequency primary eigen component of ocean-atmosphere coupled Kelvin wave and its higher order harmonic components under a strong ocean-atmosphere coupling background. And, on the other hand, there is a kind of finite amplitude nonlinear characteristic behaviour on the second order slow time scale due to the nonlinear interaction between the linear unstable primary eigen component and its higher order harmonic components under a weak ocean-atmosphere coupling background in this model system.展开更多
Tropical cyclone-induced heavy precipitation(TCP)can have a detrimental impact on human productivity,causing significant economic losses and even human casualties in coastal countries every year.In this review article...Tropical cyclone-induced heavy precipitation(TCP)can have a detrimental impact on human productivity,causing significant economic losses and even human casualties in coastal countries every year.In this review article,the authors highlight the latest research developments in terms of ocean-atmosphere interactions and TCP,and identify the gaps where further research is required to enhance our understanding.The paper revolves around the following topics:(1)the characteristics of TCP over the ocean;(2)how air-sea interface processes,including sea surface temperature,sea-salt aerosols,and sea spray,influence TCP development;(3)the effects of TCP on the ocean;and(4)TCP changes in the context of global warming.In addition,directions and suggestions for future research toward a more comprehensive understanding of TCP-ocean interactions are discussed.Overall,this review summarizes the recent research progress and challenges in TCP-ocean interactions,and could serve as a guide for improvements in convective parameterization schemes and climate models toward predicting TCP distribution and intensity more accurately.展开更多
This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone(TC)gales over the northern South China Sea.The atmosphere and o...This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone(TC)gales over the northern South China Sea.The atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled system are represented by the China Meteorological Administration’s Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS)and the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model(LICOM),respectively.The Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil VersionH 3(OASIS3)software has been utilized for the exchange of momentum,heat,and freshwater fluxes between these two components.An assessment of the coupled model’s three-day predictions for five TCs’gales was conducted.Preliminary findings indicate that the predicted TC tracks show less sensitivity to oceanic influences than the predicted TC intensities.Significant improvement in predicting the surface TC gales has been achieved through coupling the ocean model.This improvement is attributed to the impact of the warmer ocean’s effect on TC intensification,counteracting the cooling effect of the cold wake.In summary,coupling has enhanced the model’s predictive capabilities for TC gales.A detailed assessment of the coupled model’s performance in predicting other tropical weather phenomena is forthcoming.展开更多
ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provi...ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone （AAC） is a recurrent pattern in post-E1 Nifio summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean- atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor （IPOC） effect explains why E1 Nifio stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.展开更多
A fast version of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）/Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP） climate system model is briefly documented. Th...A fast version of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）/Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP） climate system model is briefly documented. The fast coupled model employs a low resolution version of the atmospheric component Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （GAMIL）, with the other parts of the model, namely an oceanic component LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model （LICOM）, land component Common Land Model （CLM）, and sea ice component from National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model （NCAR CCSM2）, as the same as in the standard version of LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System model （FGOALS_g）. The parameterizations of physical and dynamical processes of the atmospheric component in the fast version are identical to the standard version, although some parameter values are different. However, by virtue of reduced horizontal resolution and increased time-step of the most time-consuming atmospheric component, it runs faster by a factor of 3 and can serve as a useful tool for longterm and large-ensemble integrations. A 1000-year control simulation of the present-day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. The final 600 years of this simulation has virtually no trends in global mean sea surface temperatures and is recommended for internal variability studies. Several aspects of the control simulation＇s mean climate and variability are evaluated against the observational or reanalysis data. The strengths and weaknesses of the control simulation are evaluated. The mean atmospheric circulation is well simulated, except in high latitudes. The Asian-Australian monsoonal meridional cell shows realistic features, however, an artificial rainfall center is located to the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau persists throughout the year. The mean bias of SST resembles that of the standard version, appearing as a ＂double ITCZ＂ （Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone） associated with a westward extension of the equatorial eastern Pacific cold tongue. The sea ice extent is acceptable but has a higher concentration. The strength of Atlantic meridional overturning is 27.5 Sv. Evidence from the 600-year simulation suggests a modulation of internal variability on ENSO frequency, since both regular and irregular oscillations of ENSO are found during the different time periods of the long-term simulation.展开更多
文摘To estimate the time delay between the planetary temperature change and the change of the incoming solar radiation fraction absorbed by the ocean and the atmosphere, the analytical energy balance model is presented. The model generalization allows of using averaged data for model parameterization. Using the model, the time delay is investigated on four model cases of absorbed radiation change. The interconnections among the time delay, the planetary thermal inertia and the ocean active layer depth are established.
基金the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility (EarthLab)” for its support of our studyjointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2023YFF0805501)+2 种基金the Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster (KLME) of the Ministry of Education, and the Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD) at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China (Grant No. KLME202204)the NSFC program (42141017)support from the China Scholarship Council.
文摘The Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley(YHRV)experienced a record-breaking mei-yu season during the summer of 2020,prompting investigation into the role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in simulating this extreme event.Through comparative analysis of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled(CP)and atmosphere-only(WRF)simulations,the aim of this study was to elucidate the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon.Results indicate that CP effectively reproduced the observed sea surface temperature spatial distribution and its daily variation during the period from 25 June to 25 July 2020,and notably reduced the wet biases over the YHRV when compared to WRF simulations.This improvement in representation was manifested in the observed rainfall spatial distribution and daily variability.The wet biases simulated by WRF were associated with a stronger 200-hPa westerly jet and a more westward-positioned western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)with more intense 500-hPa winds and a stronger 850-hPa circulation.However,these biases were significantly reduced in CP simulations.Mechanism analysis revealed that regional ocean-atmosphere coupling over the western Northwest Pacific influenced surface turbulent heat fluxes and atmospheric instability,thereby modulating the intensity and position of the WNPSH and associated circulation subsystems at different levels.Moreover,adjustments in land-sea thermal contrast induced by ocean-atmosphere coupling impacted YHRV precipitation by altering East Asian circulation systems.These findings highlight the significant role of regional ocean-atmosphere coupling in enhancing the simulation and understanding of extreme mei-yu events over East Asia.
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 40523001, 40221503, 40675050）Major State Basic Research Development Program of China under Grant Nos. 2005CB321703, 2006CB403603the International Partnership Creative Group entitled ＂The Climate System Model Development and Application Studies＂.
文摘A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Nos.2017YFC1404102,2017YFC1404100)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos.XDB 40000000,XDB 42000000)+4 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.41690122(41690120),41705082,41421005)the Shandong Taishan Scholarship,the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Nos.2018M640659,2019M662453)YU Yongqiang is jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos.XDA 19060102.XDB 42000000)REN Hong-Li is jointly supported by the China National Science Foundation (No.41975094)the China National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster (No.2018YFC1506004)
文摘El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40221503,40231004, 40233031.
文摘This paper investigates the processes behind the double ITCZ phenomenon, a common problem in Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (CGCMs), using a CGCM—FGCM-0 (Flexible General Circulation Model, version 0). The double ITCZ mode develops rapidly during the ?rst two years of the integration and becomes a perennial phenomenon afterwards in the model. By way of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) for SST, sea surface pressure, and sea surface wind, some air-sea interactions are analyzed. These interactions prompt the anomalous signals that appear at the beginning of the coupling to develop rapidly. There are two possible reasons, proved by sensitivity experiments: (1) the overestimated east-west gradient of SST in the equatorial Paci?c in the ocean spin-up process, and (2) the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast in CCM3 (the Community Climate Model, Version Three). The overestimated east-west gradient of SST brings the anomalous equatorial easterly. The anomalous easterly, a?ected by the Coriolis force in the Southern Hemisphere, turns into an anomalous westerly in a broad area south of the equator and is enhanced by atmospheric anomalous circulation due to the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast simulated by CCM3. The anomalous westerly leads to anomalous warm advection that makes the SST warm in the southeast Paci?c. The double ITCZ phenomenon in the CGCM is a result of a series of nonlocal and nonlinear adjustment processes in the coupled system, which can be traced to the uncoupled models, oceanic component, and atmospheric component. The zonal gradient of the equatorial SST is too large in the ocean component and the amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast is too low in the atmosphere component.
文摘In this paper, ocean-atmosphere coupled regimes are identified on the basis of SVD analysis, cluster analysis and composite analysis. The coupled regimes in cold seasons are identified as the clusters of the ocean-atmosphere coupled states in a low dimensional phase space spanned by the first four SVD modes. Three coupled regimes are found. The first two coupled regimes reflect the ENSO episodes and the accompanying PNA patterns. The third regime, i.e., EAWM regime, is characterized by the strong EAWM activity and the specific SST anomaly. The composite analysis gives further evidences to the identification of EAWM regime and also demonstrates the dynamical process of its formation. The anomaly pattern of the tropical Pacific SSTA in the strong EAWM year differs significantly from that of the La Nina year.
文摘In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modelof the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with that bythe corresponding IAP AGCM which uses the climatic sea surface temperature as the boundary condition in 25 yearintegrations.The mean climatic states of January and July simulated by IAP CGCM are in good agreement with that by IAPAGCM, i.e., no serious 'climate drift' occurs in the CGCM simulation. A comparison of the results from AGCM andCGCM indicates that the standard deviation of the monthly averaged sea level pressure simulated by IAP CGCM ismuch greater than that by IAP AGCM in tropical region. In addition, both Southern Oscillation (SO) and NorthAtlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be found in the CGCM simulation for January, but these two oscillations do not existin the AGCM simulation.The interannual variability of climate may be classified into two typest one is the variation of the annual mean,another is the variation of the annual amplitude. The ocean-atmosphere interaction mainly increases the first type ofvariability. By means of the rotated EOF, the most important patterns corresponding to the two types of interannualvariability are found to have different spatial and temporal characteristics.
基金the Natioual Natural Science Foundation of China Grant No. 40333030 , 40233033.
文摘A large number of papers have been published and great efforts have been made in the recent 20 years by the Chinese oceanographic and meteorological scientists in the ocean-atmosphere interaction studies. The present paper is an overview of the major achievements made by Chinese scientists aad their collaborators in studies of larger scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the following oceans： the South China Sea, the Tropical Pacific, the indian Ocean and the North Pacific. Many interesting phenomena and dynamic mechanisms have been discovered and studied in these papers. These achievements have improved our understanding of climate variability and have great implications in climate prediction, and thus are highly relevant to the ongoing international Climate Variability and Predictability （CLIVAR） efforts.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (40275016)Science and Technology DevelopmentProject for the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau (0301)
文摘With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly （NCEPWSA） and FSU wind stress anomaly （FSUWSA） is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model （ZC coupled model） with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 E1 Nino 6 to 8 months ahead, further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 E1 Nino event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (40875025, 40875030, 40775033)Shanghai Natural Science Foundation of China (08ZR1422900)Key Promotion Project of New Meteorology Technology of the China Meteorological Administration in 2009 (09A13)
文摘This study revises Weare＇s latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated theoretic analysis. The revised Weare＇s scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak＇s scheme. The Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model, initialized by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis of wind stress anomaly at 925 hPa, is referred to as the ZCW coupled model. The atmosphere models of the ZCW coupled model that use Zebiak＇s scheme and the revised Weare＇s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, respectively. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models that use Zebiak＇s scheme and the revised Weare＇s scheme are referred to as the ZCWoand ZCWN coupled models, respectively. The simulations between the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models and between the ZCW0 and ZCWN coupled models are analyzed. The results include： （1） The evolution of heat, meridional wind and divergence anomalies simulated by similar ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, although the magnitudes of the former are larger than those of the latter; （2） The prediction skill of the Nino3 index from 1982 to 1999 by the ZCWN coupled model shows improvement compared with those by the ZCW0 coupled model; （3） The analysis of E1 Nino events in 1982/1983, 1986/1987, and 1997/1998 and La Nifia events in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1998/2000 suggests that the ZCWN coupled model is better than the ZCW0 coupled model in predicting warm event evolution and cold event generation. The results also show the disadvantage of the ZCWN coupled model for predicting E1 Nino.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 90411010, 40506007)the key project of International Science and Technology Cooperation program of China (2006DFB21250)the 111 project (B07036)
文摘A fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model is applied to highlight the mechanism of the long-term variability （including decadal and longer time scales） in the Pacific Ocean. We are interested in the effect of ocean-atmosphere coupling of different regions during these processes. The control run successfully simulates the Pacific long-term variability, whose leading modes are the Pacific （inter） Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and the North Pacific mode （NPM）. Furthermore, three numerical experiments are conducted, shutting down the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the North Pacific, the tropical Pacific, and the South Pacific, respectively. The results show that regional ocean-atmosphere coupling is not only important to the strength of local long-term SST variability but also has an influence on the variability further afield. In both the tropical Pacific and North Pacific, this local effect is the main control, which is much more obvious in the tropical regions. The existence of the PDO is extremely dependent on the coupling in the tropical Pacific. However, extratropical coupling, in particular that in the North Pacific, is also important to form its spatial pattern and strengthen the variability in some tropical areas. For the NPM, its existence is primarily determined by the coupling in the North Pacific.
文摘A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41975070]the State Key Labo-ratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanol-ogy,Chinese Academy of Sciences[project number LTO1901].
文摘The North American Dipole(NAD)is a north-south seesaw pattern of sea level pressure anomalies over the western tropical North Atlantic and northeastern North America.Previous observational studies have demonstrated that the NAD can affect the outbreak of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events.The present study analyzed the NAD-ENSO relationship as simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model-namely,the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,gridpoint version 2(FGOALS-g2).Results indicated that the model can replicate a distinct dipole comprised of a low over northeastern North America and a high over the western tropical North Atlantic,which is the signature feature of the NAD.Further analysis verified that the winter NAD can initiate the central equatorial Pacific warming in the subsequent winter by effectively forcing an anticyclonic flow and sea surface temperature(SST)warming over the northeastern subtropical Pacific(NESP)during late winter or early spring.In addition,the probability of an El Niño event was increased by a factor of 1.8 in the assimilation experiment with the NAD.By comparison,the winter Northern Atlantic Oscillation had no significant impact on the occurrence of ENSO a year later owing to its failure to induce the SST and surface wind anomalies over the NESP.
基金This work is supported by the Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academia Sinica.
文摘The quasi-geostrophic atmospheric and oceanic equations of momentum and thermodynamics with dissipation factors are used to create a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model describing the large-scale shallow-water motion. We discuss the ocean-atmosphere coupling effect in mid-high and low latitudes separately and analyze characteristics of which the oscillatory periods of coupled low-frequency modes (ocean mode) vary with the coupling frequency and latitudinal number. This can interpret the correlation between low-frequency oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interaction. Then from the dispersion curves of atmosphere and ocean, we reveal effect of the coupling strength on the propagation of Rossby waves. The convection mechanism between the two modes is also discussed in view of the slowly varying wave train.The results show that Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction play a stable rule in oceanic Rossby waves, the period of coupled low-frequency mode grows with the increment of the coupling frequency. The larger the latitudinal number is, the more rapidly it grows. When the coupling frequency tends to critical value, the oceanic Rossby waves become static. When the ocean-atmosphere coupling strength grows to some degree, the propagation of oceanic Rossby waves will become opposite to its original direction. One part of the oceanic Rossby waves is converted into atmospheric Rossby waves, the energy conversion coefficient is also solved out.
文摘An extended ocean-atmosphere coupled characteristic system including thermodynamic physical processes in ocean mixed layer is formulated in order to describe SST explicitly and remove possible limitation of ocean-atmosphere coupling assumption in hydrodynamic ENSO models. It is revealed that there is a kind of abrupt nonlinear characteristic behaviour, which relates to rapid onset and intermittency of El Nino events, on the second order slow time scale due to the nonlinear interaction between a linear unstable low-frequency primary eigen component of ocean-atmosphere coupled Kelvin wave and its higher order harmonic components under a strong ocean-atmosphere coupling background. And, on the other hand, there is a kind of finite amplitude nonlinear characteristic behaviour on the second order slow time scale due to the nonlinear interaction between the linear unstable primary eigen component and its higher order harmonic components under a weak ocean-atmosphere coupling background in this model system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42192552 and 42475011]。
文摘Tropical cyclone-induced heavy precipitation(TCP)can have a detrimental impact on human productivity,causing significant economic losses and even human casualties in coastal countries every year.In this review article,the authors highlight the latest research developments in terms of ocean-atmosphere interactions and TCP,and identify the gaps where further research is required to enhance our understanding.The paper revolves around the following topics:(1)the characteristics of TCP over the ocean;(2)how air-sea interface processes,including sea surface temperature,sea-salt aerosols,and sea spray,influence TCP development;(3)the effects of TCP on the ocean;and(4)TCP changes in the context of global warming.In addition,directions and suggestions for future research toward a more comprehensive understanding of TCP-ocean interactions are discussed.Overall,this review summarizes the recent research progress and challenges in TCP-ocean interactions,and could serve as a guide for improvements in convective parameterization schemes and climate models toward predicting TCP distribution and intensity more accurately.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFC3008005]the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation [grant numbers 2022A1515011288 and 2024A1515030210]+1 种基金the Key Innovation Team of the China Meteorological Administration [grant number CMA2023ZD08]the Guangdong Provincial Marine Meteorology Science Data Center [grant number 2024B1212070014]。
文摘This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone(TC)gales over the northern South China Sea.The atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled system are represented by the China Meteorological Administration’s Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS)and the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model(LICOM),respectively.The Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil VersionH 3(OASIS3)software has been utilized for the exchange of momentum,heat,and freshwater fluxes between these two components.An assessment of the coupled model’s three-day predictions for five TCs’gales was conducted.Preliminary findings indicate that the predicted TC tracks show less sensitivity to oceanic influences than the predicted TC intensities.Significant improvement in predicting the surface TC gales has been achieved through coupling the ocean model.This improvement is attributed to the impact of the warmer ocean’s effect on TC intensification,counteracting the cooling effect of the cold wake.In summary,coupling has enhanced the model’s predictive capabilities for TC gales.A detailed assessment of the coupled model’s performance in predicting other tropical weather phenomena is forthcoming.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB 955600)the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA11010103)+1 种基金the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund 2-1503 of the Japanese Ministry of Environment, the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 25287120 and for Young Scientists 15H05466the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41205049, 41275081, 41425019, 41525019, 41521005)
文摘ENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone （AAC） is a recurrent pattern in post-E1 Nifio summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean- atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor （IPOC） effect explains why E1 Nifio stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed.
基金Acknowledgements. This work was jointly supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences through the International Partnership Creative Group entitled ＂The Climate System Model Development and Application Studies＂, the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China （973 Program） under Grant No. 2005CB321703, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 40675050, 40221503, 40625014）. The long-term integration of the coupled model was finished on the Lenovo DeepComp 6800 supercomputer at the Supercomputing Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the IBM SP690 at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The authors appreciate the contribution of Drs. R. C. Yu, Y. Q. Yu, H. L. Liu, W. P. Zheng, J. Li, X. G Xin, and Mrs. H. Wan, H. M. Li in the model development and validations.
文摘A fast version of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）/Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP） climate system model is briefly documented. The fast coupled model employs a low resolution version of the atmospheric component Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （GAMIL）, with the other parts of the model, namely an oceanic component LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model （LICOM）, land component Common Land Model （CLM）, and sea ice component from National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model （NCAR CCSM2）, as the same as in the standard version of LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System model （FGOALS_g）. The parameterizations of physical and dynamical processes of the atmospheric component in the fast version are identical to the standard version, although some parameter values are different. However, by virtue of reduced horizontal resolution and increased time-step of the most time-consuming atmospheric component, it runs faster by a factor of 3 and can serve as a useful tool for longterm and large-ensemble integrations. A 1000-year control simulation of the present-day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. The final 600 years of this simulation has virtually no trends in global mean sea surface temperatures and is recommended for internal variability studies. Several aspects of the control simulation＇s mean climate and variability are evaluated against the observational or reanalysis data. The strengths and weaknesses of the control simulation are evaluated. The mean atmospheric circulation is well simulated, except in high latitudes. The Asian-Australian monsoonal meridional cell shows realistic features, however, an artificial rainfall center is located to the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau persists throughout the year. The mean bias of SST resembles that of the standard version, appearing as a ＂double ITCZ＂ （Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone） associated with a westward extension of the equatorial eastern Pacific cold tongue. The sea ice extent is acceptable but has a higher concentration. The strength of Atlantic meridional overturning is 27.5 Sv. Evidence from the 600-year simulation suggests a modulation of internal variability on ENSO frequency, since both regular and irregular oscillations of ENSO are found during the different time periods of the long-term simulation.
