The annual maximum rainfall event(AMRE)refers to the maximum consecutive five-day rainfall in a year.In North China,these events account for 15%–80%of the total summer(June–August)rainfall amount and pose a great ch...The annual maximum rainfall event(AMRE)refers to the maximum consecutive five-day rainfall in a year.In North China,these events account for 15%–80%of the total summer(June–August)rainfall amount and pose a great challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.Based on data analyses during 1979–2023,this study shows the interannual variability of AMRE is significantly influenced by the phase and amplitude mode of the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),characterized by two orthogonal patterns of southeasterly winds at 850 h Pa over the northwestern Pacific.The EASM phase-locked AMRE shows heavy rainfall events occurring extremely early and late in Beijing and surrounding areas,corresponding to the peak southeasterly wind anomalies in June and August.The EASM amplitude-locked AMRE exhibits extreme heavy or light rainfall over southwest areas with normal phase.Therefore,AMRE has a potential predictability on the seasonal time scale due to its phase-and amplitude-locking with the slow variation of the annual cycle of the EASM.展开更多
Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM...Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM2.0 aims to meet the demand for seamless climate prediction through accurate climate simulations and projections.This paper provides an overview of SYCIM2.0 and highlights its key features,especially the coupling of an unstructured ocean model and the tuning process.An extensive evaluation of its performance,focusing on the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),is presented based on long-term simulations with fixed external forcing.The results suggest that after nearly 240 years of integration,SYCIM2.0 achieves a quasi-equilibrium state,albeit with small trends in the net radiation flux at the top-of-atmosphere(TOA)and Earth’s surface,as well as with global mean near-surface temperatures.Compared to observational and reanalysis data,the model realistically simulates spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation centers to include their annual cycles,in addition to the lower-level wind fields in the EASM region.However,it exhibits a weakened and eastward-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH),resulting in an associated precipitation bias.SYCIM2.0 robustly captures the dominant mode of the EASM and its close relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)but exhibits relatively poor performance in simulating the second leading mode and the associated air–sea interaction processes.Further comprehensive evaluations of SYCIM2.0 will be conducted in future studies.展开更多
This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics a...This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics and potential mechanisms for their different persistence.Results suggest that both types of events are characterized by anomalously suppressed convection accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone during the break period.However,these convection and circulation anomalies exhibit more localized patterns for short-lived events,but possess larger spatial scales and stronger intensities for long-lived events.The influence of tropical intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs)on short-and long-lived events is explored to interpret their different durations.It is found that for short-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation is dominant in initiating and terminating the break,while the impact of the 30-60-day oscillation is secondary,thus resulting in a brief break period.In contrast,for long-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation contributes to break development rather than its initiation,and concurrently,the 30-60-day oscillation shows a remarkable enhancement and plays a decisive role in prolonging the break duration.Furthermore,we find that long-lived events are preceded by significant ISO activities approximately two weeks before their occurrence,which can be regarded as efficient predictors.Associated with these precursory ISOs,the occurrence probability of break days for long-lived events can rise up to triple their original probability(35.43%vs.11.21%).展开更多
Based on the high-and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1(CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6), we compare the interannual variabili...Based on the high-and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1(CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6), we compare the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM). The EASM interannual variability is characterized by the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC) circulation and the dipole rainfall pattern with a negative southern lobe over the western North Pacific and a positive northern lobe along the Meiyu–Baiu region, which is better reproduced by the highresolution models. The reason for the improvement in the high-resolution models has been attributed to the better simulation of the warm temperature advection from the wind anomalies on the climatological temperature gradient. Positive sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are the key to the improved wind anomalies featuring a WNPAC in the high-resolution models. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean strengthen the WNPAC by triggering a Kelvin-wave response to the enhanced heat release induced by the increased precipitation. Based on the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the warm SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean in the high-resolution CESM1 are tied to the anomalous easterly wind along the equator, which reduces surface evaporation and upwelling.Therefore, the better simulations of air–sea feedback and the oceanic mesoscale eddy over the western Indian Ocean are the key for the improved simulation of the EASM interannual variations in the high-resolution CESM1.展开更多
This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the So...This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.展开更多
This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During...This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During Y0,monsoon precipitation surpasses climatological values,presenting a tripole spatial pattern,whereas Y1 is characterized by below-normal precipitation with a dipole pattern.In certain regions,the difference in precipitation between Y0 and Y1 reaches up to 3 mm day–1.This work provides further insight into the key tropical ocean regions driving the precipitation distinction,and elucidates their coupling mechanisms with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies.Influenced by the development of earlier ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns,the Tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific(TIO-WP)warming(cooling)is significant during the summer of Y0(Y1).The elevated sea surface temperature(SST)in Y0 supports an anomalous Western North Pacific(WNP)anticyclone via a Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism.This anomalous anticyclone intensifies the suppressed convection over the WNP,which results in increased divergence in the upper-level troposphere over the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions,thereby boosting convection.Simultaneously,the easterly winds associated with the strengthened equatorial latitude SST anomaly(SSTA)gradient and the anomalous anticyclone intensified,transporting a large amount of water vapor to the west.The combined moisture and dynamic conditions support the enhanced precipitation in the South Asian region.展开更多
The East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast Asia(NEA)has experienced an increase in summer rainfall and a delayed end to the rainy season after 2000,suggesting a trend of enhancement.Based on the data analyses spanning...The East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast Asia(NEA)has experienced an increase in summer rainfall and a delayed end to the rainy season after 2000,suggesting a trend of enhancement.Based on the data analyses spanning 1979-2022,our results show that the increased rainfall amounts are associated with a more pronounced Mongolian cyclone(MC)in July−August,a manifestation of a portion of the Eurasian barotropic Rossby wave train.Sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic(NA)regulate this wave train,with SST increases leading to its amplification.Somewhat independently,a delayed end to the rainy season in September is related to an enhanced anticyclone over the Kuril Islands(ACKI)in the Russian Far East.This anticyclone originates in the Arctic region,possibly induced by the loss of sea ice in the East Siberian Sea,a condition that can be detected two months in advance.The stronger MC and ACKI jointly contribute to the observed enhancement in the East Asian summer monsoon in NEA since 2000 by facilitating ascending motion and moisture transport.Therefore,the SST anomaly in the NA,which is responsible for the intensified rainfall in the rainy season in NEA,coupled with the sea ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea,provides a potential prediction source for the retreat of the rainy season.展开更多
Using surface and balloon-sounding measurements, satellite retrievals, and ERA5 reanalysis during 2011–20, this study compares the precipitation and related wind dynamics, moisture and heat features in different area...Using surface and balloon-sounding measurements, satellite retrievals, and ERA5 reanalysis during 2011–20, this study compares the precipitation and related wind dynamics, moisture and heat features in different areas of the South China Sea(SCS) before and after SCS summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO). The rainy sea around Dongsha(hereafter simply referred to as Dongsha) near the north coast, and the rainless sea around Xisha(hereafter simply referred to as Xisha) in the western SCS, are selected as two typical research subregions. It is found that Dongsha, rather than Xisha, has an earlier and greater increase in precipitation after SCSSMO under the combined effect of strong low-level southwesterly winds, coastal terrain blocking and lifting, and northern cold air. When the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds enhance and advance northward, accompanied by strengthened moisture flux, there is a strong convergence of wind and moisture in Dongsha due to a sudden deceleration and rear-end collision of wind by coastal terrain blocking. Moist and warm advection over Dongsha enhances early and deepens up to 200 h Pa in association with the strengthened upward motion after SCSSMO, thereby providing ample moisture and heat to form strong precipitation. However, when the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds weaken and retreat southward, Xisha is located in a wind-break area where strong convergence and upward motion centers move in. The vertical moistening and heating by advection in Xisha enhance later and appear far weaker compared to that in Dongsha, consistent with later and weaker precipitation.展开更多
Based on the monthly average SLP data in the northern hemisphere from 1899 to 2009, East Asian summer monsoon intensity index in recent 111 years was calculated, and the interdecadal and interannual variation characte...Based on the monthly average SLP data in the northern hemisphere from 1899 to 2009, East Asian summer monsoon intensity index in recent 111 years was calculated, and the interdecadal and interannual variation characteristics of East Asian summer monsoon were analyzed. The results showed that East Asian summer monsoon in the 1920s was the strongest. The intensity of East Asian summer monsoon after the middle period of the 1980s presented weakened trend. It was the weakest in the early 21st century. Morlet wavelet analysis found that the interdecadal and interannual variations of East Asian summer monsoon had quasi-10-year and quasi-2-year significance periods. The interannual variation of precipitation in the east of China closely related to intensity variation of East Asian summer monsoon. In strong （weak） East Asian summer monsoon year, the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River was less （more） than that in common year, while the rainfall in North China was more （less） than that in common year. The weakening of East Asian summer monsoon was an important reason for that it was rainless （drought） in North China and rainy （flood） in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River after the middle period of the 1980s.展开更多
Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagn...Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.展开更多
Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill i...Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Ni?no and La Ni?na. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.展开更多
The intensity of interannual variability(IIV)of the monsoon and monsoon–ENSO biennial relationship(MEBR)were examined and compared for both the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)and western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM...The intensity of interannual variability(IIV)of the monsoon and monsoon–ENSO biennial relationship(MEBR)were examined and compared for both the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)and western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM)during 1958–2018.Covariability of the IIV and MEBR were identified for the two monsoons.When the MEBR was strong(weak),the IIV of the monsoon was observed to be large(small).This rule applied to both the ISM and WNPSM.Out-ofphase relationships were found between the ISM and the WNPSM.When the IIV and MEBR of the ISM were strong(weak),those of the WNPSM tended to be weak(strong).During the period with a stronger(weaker)ENSO–Atlantic coupling after(before)the mid-1980 s,the IIV and MEBR of the WNPSM(ISM)were observed to be stronger.The increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)may trigger the observed seesaw pattern of the ISM and WNPSM in terms of the IIV and MEBR multidecadal variability.The results imply that tropical Atlantic SST may need to be given more attention and consideration when predicting future monsoon variability of the ISM and WNPSM.展开更多
This study investigated the connection between the Australian summer monsoon(ASM) and summer precipitation over central China. It was found that,following a weaker-than-normal ASM, the East Asian summer monsoon and we...This study investigated the connection between the Australian summer monsoon(ASM) and summer precipitation over central China. It was found that,following a weaker-than-normal ASM, the East Asian summer monsoon and western North Pacific subtropical high tend to be stronger, yielding anomalous northward moisture to be transported from the western Pacific to central China. Besides, anomalous upwelling motion emerges over 30–37.5°N, along 110°E. Consequently,significant positive summer precipitation anomalies are located over central China. Further analysis indicated that the boreal winter sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea shows positive anomalies in association with a weaker-than-normal ASM. The Indian Ocean warming in boreal winter could persist into the following summer because of its own long memory, emanating a baroclinic Kelvin wave into the Pacific that triggers suppressed convection and an anomalous anticyclone. Besides, the abnormal SST signal in the South China Sea develops eastward with time because of local air-sea interaction, causing summer SST warming in the western Pacific. The SST warming can further affect East Asian atmospheric circulation and precipitation through its impact on convection.展开更多
Results of the definition of South China Sea summer monsoon onset date and East Asian summermonsoon index in recent years are summarized in this paper. And more questions to be resolved are introducedlater.
The long-term trend of the Arabian Sea surface temperature(ASST)during the formation of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)is discussed in this manuscript.From April to June,ASST changed from a meridional gradual dis...The long-term trend of the Arabian Sea surface temperature(ASST)during the formation of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)is discussed in this manuscript.From April to June,ASST changed from a meridional gradual distribution to a spatially uniform distribution and then to a zonal gradual distribution.The South Asian summer monsoon intensity(SASMI)and South Asian summer monsoon direction(SASMD)indicate that the variation of the ASST is highly related to the formation of the SASM during the summer monsoon period and can contribute to the spread of the SASM from the Southwest Arabian Sea throughout all of South Asia.Results of the correlation between the ASST and SASMI for the same month and its adjacent months were the same,and the areas of the positive correlation between the ASST and SASMI significantly increased from May–June as compared to April–May.The maximum correlation coefficient was 0.86.The results of the ASST and SASMD for the same month and its adjacent months were substantially different.However,the ASST and SASMD for May and April also showed a high positive correlation with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.61 in the southwestern Arabian Sea.Existence of the ASST had a spatially consistent and significant upward trend with a mean increase of 0.6℃during the summer monsoon period from 1980 to 2020(between April and September),whereas the SASMI had a strengthening trend along the western and southwestern regions of the Arabian Sea and the southeastern region of the Arabian Peninsula.Meanwhile,the rest of the study regions showed a declining trend.Overall,the entire study region showed a slight downward trend,and the average value decreased by 0.02ms^(−1).展开更多
Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon...Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon include strong (weak) northerly winds along coastal East Asia, cold (warm) East Asian continent and surrounding sea and warm (cold) ocean from the subtropical central Pacific to the trop-ical western Pacific, high (low) pressure in East Asian continent and low (high) pressure in the adjacent ocean and deep (weak) East Asian trough at 500 hPa. These interannual variations are shown to be closely connected to the SST anomaly in the tropical Pacific, both in the western and eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the strength of the EAWM is mainly influenced by the processes associated with the SST anom-aly over the tropical Pacific. The EAWM generally becomes weak when there is a positive SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific (El Ni?o), and it becomes strong when there is a negative SST anomaly (La Ni?a). Moreover, the SST anomaly in the South China Sea is found to be closely related to the EAWM and may persist to the following summer. Both the circulation at 850 hPa and the rainfall in China confirm the connection between the EAWM and the following East Asian summer monsoon. The possible reason for the recent 1998 summer flood in China is briefly discussed too. Key words East Asian winter monsoon - Interannual variability - SST - Summer monsoon This study was supported by “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 part 1, and by key project (KZ 952-S1-404) of Chinese Academy of Sciences.展开更多
By dint of grid information from 1948 to 2007,the summer monsoon in Afro-Asian area and the precipitation in corresponding atmosphere circulation situation during the strong and weak Afro-Asian monsoon period are stud...By dint of grid information from 1948 to 2007,the summer monsoon in Afro-Asian area and the precipitation in corresponding atmosphere circulation situation during the strong and weak Afro-Asian monsoon period are studied.The results suggest that the strong or weak Afro-Asian monsoon has pretty good corresponding relation with summer precipitation in Afro-Asian area.When summer monsoon weakens year after year,precipitation also decreases every year.展开更多
The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the vari...The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia. The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However, the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China. The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.展开更多
Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is...Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.展开更多
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing...This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1. l（m）. For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model＇s forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Nifio3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2242205 and 42375033)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(Grant No.2019QZKK0105)+1 种基金the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS(2023Z018)the S&T Development Fund of CAMS(Grant No.2023KJ036)。
文摘The annual maximum rainfall event(AMRE)refers to the maximum consecutive five-day rainfall in a year.In North China,these events account for 15%–80%of the total summer(June–August)rainfall amount and pose a great challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting.Based on data analyses during 1979–2023,this study shows the interannual variability of AMRE is significantly influenced by the phase and amplitude mode of the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM),characterized by two orthogonal patterns of southeasterly winds at 850 h Pa over the northwestern Pacific.The EASM phase-locked AMRE shows heavy rainfall events occurring extremely early and late in Beijing and surrounding areas,corresponding to the peak southeasterly wind anomalies in June and August.The EASM amplitude-locked AMRE exhibits extreme heavy or light rainfall over southwest areas with normal phase.Therefore,AMRE has a potential predictability on the seasonal time scale due to its phase-and amplitude-locking with the slow variation of the annual cycle of the EASM.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U21A6001,42261144687,42175173)the Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(Grant No.SML2023SP208)the GuangDong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515240036).
文摘Based on the C-Coupler platform,the semi-unstructured Climate System Model,Synthesis Community Integrated Model version 2(SYCIM2.0),has been developed at the School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University.SYCIM2.0 aims to meet the demand for seamless climate prediction through accurate climate simulations and projections.This paper provides an overview of SYCIM2.0 and highlights its key features,especially the coupling of an unstructured ocean model and the tuning process.An extensive evaluation of its performance,focusing on the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM),is presented based on long-term simulations with fixed external forcing.The results suggest that after nearly 240 years of integration,SYCIM2.0 achieves a quasi-equilibrium state,albeit with small trends in the net radiation flux at the top-of-atmosphere(TOA)and Earth’s surface,as well as with global mean near-surface temperatures.Compared to observational and reanalysis data,the model realistically simulates spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation centers to include their annual cycles,in addition to the lower-level wind fields in the EASM region.However,it exhibits a weakened and eastward-shifted Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH),resulting in an associated precipitation bias.SYCIM2.0 robustly captures the dominant mode of the EASM and its close relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)but exhibits relatively poor performance in simulating the second leading mode and the associated air–sea interaction processes.Further comprehensive evaluations of SYCIM2.0 will be conducted in future studies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275025)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.2023084).
文摘This study conducts a comparative investigation between short-lived(3-8 days)and long-lived(9-24 days)break events of the South China Sea summer monsoon during 1979-2020,focusing on their statistical characteristics and potential mechanisms for their different persistence.Results suggest that both types of events are characterized by anomalously suppressed convection accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone during the break period.However,these convection and circulation anomalies exhibit more localized patterns for short-lived events,but possess larger spatial scales and stronger intensities for long-lived events.The influence of tropical intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs)on short-and long-lived events is explored to interpret their different durations.It is found that for short-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation is dominant in initiating and terminating the break,while the impact of the 30-60-day oscillation is secondary,thus resulting in a brief break period.In contrast,for long-lived events,the 10-25-day oscillation contributes to break development rather than its initiation,and concurrently,the 30-60-day oscillation shows a remarkable enhancement and plays a decisive role in prolonging the break duration.Furthermore,we find that long-lived events are preceded by significant ISO activities approximately two weeks before their occurrence,which can be regarded as efficient predictors.Associated with these precursory ISOs,the occurrence probability of break days for long-lived events can rise up to triple their original probability(35.43%vs.11.21%).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant Nos.42275018 (L.D.) and 42175029 (F.S.)]the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Fund for Excellent Young Scientists Fund Program (Overseas) [Grant No.2022HWYQ-065 (L.D.)]+3 种基金the Taishan Scholars Program of Shandong Province [Grant No.tsqn202211068 (L.D.)]the Fund of Laoshan Laboratory [Grant Nos.LSKJ202202602 (L.D.) and LSKJ202202201 (F.S.)]financially supported by Laoshan Laboratory (Grant No.LSKJ202300302)supported by the Office of Science, U.S.Department of Energy (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling (WACCEM) scientific focus area funded by the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area。
文摘Based on the high-and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1(CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6), we compare the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM). The EASM interannual variability is characterized by the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC) circulation and the dipole rainfall pattern with a negative southern lobe over the western North Pacific and a positive northern lobe along the Meiyu–Baiu region, which is better reproduced by the highresolution models. The reason for the improvement in the high-resolution models has been attributed to the better simulation of the warm temperature advection from the wind anomalies on the climatological temperature gradient. Positive sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are the key to the improved wind anomalies featuring a WNPAC in the high-resolution models. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean strengthen the WNPAC by triggering a Kelvin-wave response to the enhanced heat release induced by the increased precipitation. Based on the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the warm SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean in the high-resolution CESM1 are tied to the anomalous easterly wind along the equator, which reduces surface evaporation and upwelling.Therefore, the better simulations of air–sea feedback and the oceanic mesoscale eddy over the western Indian Ocean are the key for the improved simulation of the EASM interannual variations in the high-resolution CESM1.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42175018, 42175020)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province (2023B1212060019)+1 种基金Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(311024001)Project supported by Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)(SML2023SP209)。
文摘This study explores the impact of the tropical sea surface temperature(SST) independent of the preceding winter El Nino–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events(ENSO-independent SST) on the interannual variability of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) and the associated mechanisms. During summer, the ENSO-independent SST component dominates across tropical ocean regions. The tropical ENSO-independent SSTs during spring and summer in the Maritime Continent(MC), the equatorial central-eastern Pacific(CEP), and the tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO) regions play a comparably significant role in the interannual variation of the SCSSM intensity, compared to the tropical SST dependent on the preceding winter ENSO. The ENSO-independent SST anomalies(SSTA) in the TAO during spring and summer exhibit significant persistence. They can influence the SCSSM through westward propagation of teleconnection, as well as through eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. In summer, the SSTA in the MC, CEP, and TAO regions contribute jointly to the variability of the SCSSM. The MC SSTA affects local convection and generates anomalous meridional circulation to impact the SCSSM intensity. The CEP SSTA directly influences the SCSSM via the Matsuno-Gill response mechanism and indirectly affects it via meridional circulation by modulating vertical motions over the MC through zonal circulation. The TAO SSTA impacts the SCSSM through both westward and eastward pathways, as well as by influencing zonal circulation patterns in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific. The results offer valuable insights into the factors influencing the interannual variability of the SCSSM intensity.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805300)Civilian Space Programme of China(D040305)。
文摘This research analyzes the variations of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly(SASMRA)between the first development year(Y0)and the following year(Y1)of all multi-year La Ni?a events from 1958 to 2022.During Y0,monsoon precipitation surpasses climatological values,presenting a tripole spatial pattern,whereas Y1 is characterized by below-normal precipitation with a dipole pattern.In certain regions,the difference in precipitation between Y0 and Y1 reaches up to 3 mm day–1.This work provides further insight into the key tropical ocean regions driving the precipitation distinction,and elucidates their coupling mechanisms with large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies.Influenced by the development of earlier ocean-atmosphere anomaly patterns,the Tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific(TIO-WP)warming(cooling)is significant during the summer of Y0(Y1).The elevated sea surface temperature(SST)in Y0 supports an anomalous Western North Pacific(WNP)anticyclone via a Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence mechanism.This anomalous anticyclone intensifies the suppressed convection over the WNP,which results in increased divergence in the upper-level troposphere over the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions,thereby boosting convection.Simultaneously,the easterly winds associated with the strengthened equatorial latitude SST anomaly(SSTA)gradient and the anomalous anticyclone intensified,transporting a large amount of water vapor to the west.The combined moisture and dynamic conditions support the enhanced precipitation in the South Asian region.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2242205,41830969)the S&T Development Fund of CAMS(2022KJ008)the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS(2021Z004).
文摘The East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast Asia(NEA)has experienced an increase in summer rainfall and a delayed end to the rainy season after 2000,suggesting a trend of enhancement.Based on the data analyses spanning 1979-2022,our results show that the increased rainfall amounts are associated with a more pronounced Mongolian cyclone(MC)in July−August,a manifestation of a portion of the Eurasian barotropic Rossby wave train.Sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic(NA)regulate this wave train,with SST increases leading to its amplification.Somewhat independently,a delayed end to the rainy season in September is related to an enhanced anticyclone over the Kuril Islands(ACKI)in the Russian Far East.This anticyclone originates in the Arctic region,possibly induced by the loss of sea ice in the East Siberian Sea,a condition that can be detected two months in advance.The stronger MC and ACKI jointly contribute to the observed enhancement in the East Asian summer monsoon in NEA since 2000 by facilitating ascending motion and moisture transport.Therefore,the SST anomaly in the NA,which is responsible for the intensified rainfall in the rainy season in NEA,coupled with the sea ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea,provides a potential prediction source for the retreat of the rainy season.
基金supported by a Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (Grant No.2020B0301030004)the Collaborative Observation and Multisource Real-time Data Fusion and Analysis Technology & Innovation team (Grant No.GRMCTD202103)the Foshan Special Project on Science and Technology in Social Field (Grant No.2120001008761)。
文摘Using surface and balloon-sounding measurements, satellite retrievals, and ERA5 reanalysis during 2011–20, this study compares the precipitation and related wind dynamics, moisture and heat features in different areas of the South China Sea(SCS) before and after SCS summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO). The rainy sea around Dongsha(hereafter simply referred to as Dongsha) near the north coast, and the rainless sea around Xisha(hereafter simply referred to as Xisha) in the western SCS, are selected as two typical research subregions. It is found that Dongsha, rather than Xisha, has an earlier and greater increase in precipitation after SCSSMO under the combined effect of strong low-level southwesterly winds, coastal terrain blocking and lifting, and northern cold air. When the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds enhance and advance northward, accompanied by strengthened moisture flux, there is a strong convergence of wind and moisture in Dongsha due to a sudden deceleration and rear-end collision of wind by coastal terrain blocking. Moist and warm advection over Dongsha enhances early and deepens up to 200 h Pa in association with the strengthened upward motion after SCSSMO, thereby providing ample moisture and heat to form strong precipitation. However, when the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds weaken and retreat southward, Xisha is located in a wind-break area where strong convergence and upward motion centers move in. The vertical moistening and heating by advection in Xisha enhance later and appear far weaker compared to that in Dongsha, consistent with later and weaker precipitation.
基金Supported by National Scientific and Technological Support Plan in China(2009BAC51B03)"Six-Talent Peak"Item of Jiangsu Province(2005)~~
文摘Based on the monthly average SLP data in the northern hemisphere from 1899 to 2009, East Asian summer monsoon intensity index in recent 111 years was calculated, and the interdecadal and interannual variation characteristics of East Asian summer monsoon were analyzed. The results showed that East Asian summer monsoon in the 1920s was the strongest. The intensity of East Asian summer monsoon after the middle period of the 1980s presented weakened trend. It was the weakest in the early 21st century. Morlet wavelet analysis found that the interdecadal and interannual variations of East Asian summer monsoon had quasi-10-year and quasi-2-year significance periods. The interannual variation of precipitation in the east of China closely related to intensity variation of East Asian summer monsoon. In strong （weak） East Asian summer monsoon year, the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River was less （more） than that in common year, while the rainfall in North China was more （less） than that in common year. The weakening of East Asian summer monsoon was an important reason for that it was rainless （drought） in North China and rainy （flood） in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River after the middle period of the 1980s.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41305057, 41275076, 41105069, and 41375081)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos.2010CB951903 and 2014CB953900)the LCS Youth Fund (2014)
文摘Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.
基金supported by the UK–China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fundsupported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41605078)
文摘Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Ni?no and La Ni?na. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant number 41776031the National Key Research and Development Program of China grant number 2018YFC1506903+2 种基金the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation grant number 2015A030313796the program for scientific research start-up funds of Guangdong Ocean Universitythe Foundation for Returned Scholars of the Ministry of Education of China。
文摘The intensity of interannual variability(IIV)of the monsoon and monsoon–ENSO biennial relationship(MEBR)were examined and compared for both the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)and western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM)during 1958–2018.Covariability of the IIV and MEBR were identified for the two monsoons.When the MEBR was strong(weak),the IIV of the monsoon was observed to be large(small).This rule applied to both the ISM and WNPSM.Out-ofphase relationships were found between the ISM and the WNPSM.When the IIV and MEBR of the ISM were strong(weak),those of the WNPSM tended to be weak(strong).During the period with a stronger(weaker)ENSO–Atlantic coupling after(before)the mid-1980 s,the IIV and MEBR of the WNPSM(ISM)were observed to be stronger.The increasing influences from the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)may trigger the observed seesaw pattern of the ISM and WNPSM in terms of the IIV and MEBR multidecadal variability.The results imply that tropical Atlantic SST may need to be given more attention and consideration when predicting future monsoon variability of the ISM and WNPSM.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41421004 and 41130103)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Mete orology) (Grant No. GYHY201306026)
文摘This study investigated the connection between the Australian summer monsoon(ASM) and summer precipitation over central China. It was found that,following a weaker-than-normal ASM, the East Asian summer monsoon and western North Pacific subtropical high tend to be stronger, yielding anomalous northward moisture to be transported from the western Pacific to central China. Besides, anomalous upwelling motion emerges over 30–37.5°N, along 110°E. Consequently,significant positive summer precipitation anomalies are located over central China. Further analysis indicated that the boreal winter sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea shows positive anomalies in association with a weaker-than-normal ASM. The Indian Ocean warming in boreal winter could persist into the following summer because of its own long memory, emanating a baroclinic Kelvin wave into the Pacific that triggers suppressed convection and an anomalous anticyclone. Besides, the abnormal SST signal in the South China Sea develops eastward with time because of local air-sea interaction, causing summer SST warming in the western Pacific. The SST warming can further affect East Asian atmospheric circulation and precipitation through its impact on convection.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (grant No.40233027)Natural Science Foundation ofChina (Project 90211010)"Research on the monitoring and service of South China Sea monsoons", ResearchFund for Tropical Marine Meteorology
文摘Results of the definition of South China Sea summer monsoon onset date and East Asian summermonsoon index in recent years are summarized in this paper. And more questions to be resolved are introducedlater.
基金supported by the Global Change and Airsea Interaction Project,the Research and Development of Marine Electromagnetic Field Sensors and Demonstration of Electromagnetic Detection Applications(No.2022YFC 3104000)the Special Project.
文摘The long-term trend of the Arabian Sea surface temperature(ASST)during the formation of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)is discussed in this manuscript.From April to June,ASST changed from a meridional gradual distribution to a spatially uniform distribution and then to a zonal gradual distribution.The South Asian summer monsoon intensity(SASMI)and South Asian summer monsoon direction(SASMD)indicate that the variation of the ASST is highly related to the formation of the SASM during the summer monsoon period and can contribute to the spread of the SASM from the Southwest Arabian Sea throughout all of South Asia.Results of the correlation between the ASST and SASMI for the same month and its adjacent months were the same,and the areas of the positive correlation between the ASST and SASMI significantly increased from May–June as compared to April–May.The maximum correlation coefficient was 0.86.The results of the ASST and SASMD for the same month and its adjacent months were substantially different.However,the ASST and SASMD for May and April also showed a high positive correlation with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.61 in the southwestern Arabian Sea.Existence of the ASST had a spatially consistent and significant upward trend with a mean increase of 0.6℃during the summer monsoon period from 1980 to 2020(between April and September),whereas the SASMI had a strengthening trend along the western and southwestern regions of the Arabian Sea and the southeastern region of the Arabian Peninsula.Meanwhile,the rest of the study regions showed a declining trend.Overall,the entire study region showed a slight downward trend,and the average value decreased by 0.02ms^(−1).
文摘Based on the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data the interannual variability of the East Asian winter mon-soon (EAWM) is studied with a newly defined EAWM intensity index. The marked features for a strong (weak) winter monsoon include strong (weak) northerly winds along coastal East Asia, cold (warm) East Asian continent and surrounding sea and warm (cold) ocean from the subtropical central Pacific to the trop-ical western Pacific, high (low) pressure in East Asian continent and low (high) pressure in the adjacent ocean and deep (weak) East Asian trough at 500 hPa. These interannual variations are shown to be closely connected to the SST anomaly in the tropical Pacific, both in the western and eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the strength of the EAWM is mainly influenced by the processes associated with the SST anom-aly over the tropical Pacific. The EAWM generally becomes weak when there is a positive SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific (El Ni?o), and it becomes strong when there is a negative SST anomaly (La Ni?a). Moreover, the SST anomaly in the South China Sea is found to be closely related to the EAWM and may persist to the following summer. Both the circulation at 850 hPa and the rainfall in China confirm the connection between the EAWM and the following East Asian summer monsoon. The possible reason for the recent 1998 summer flood in China is briefly discussed too. Key words East Asian winter monsoon - Interannual variability - SST - Summer monsoon This study was supported by “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 part 1, and by key project (KZ 952-S1-404) of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘By dint of grid information from 1948 to 2007,the summer monsoon in Afro-Asian area and the precipitation in corresponding atmosphere circulation situation during the strong and weak Afro-Asian monsoon period are studied.The results suggest that the strong or weak Afro-Asian monsoon has pretty good corresponding relation with summer precipitation in Afro-Asian area.When summer monsoon weakens year after year,precipitation also decreases every year.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China un-der Grant No.40233033.
文摘The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia. The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However, the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China. The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.
基金supported jointly by the National Key Basic Research Development Program(Grant No.G1999043403)the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)(Grant No.KZCX3-SW-218)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China project for young scientists fund(No.40305012) the Western Project of the CAS (KZCX1-10-07).
文摘Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2015CB453200 and 2014CB953900)China Meteorological Special Program (Grant Nos. GYHY 201206016 and GYHY201306020)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305057, 41275076, and 41375081)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change, China
文摘This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC_CSM1. l（m）. For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon, reasonable skill is found in the model＇s forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology and spatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over the tropical western North Pacific and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular, overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-time forecasts. Variations of SST, measured by the first mode over the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as the spatiotemporal features over the Nifio3.4 region, are overall well predicted. However, this does not necessarily translate into successful forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon by the model. Diagnostics of the relationships between monsoon and SST show that difficulties in predicting the South Asian monsoon can be mainly attributed to the limited regional response of monsoon in observations but the extensive and exaggerated response in predictions due partially to the application of ensemble average forecasting methods. In contrast, in spite of a similar deficiency, the Southeast Asian monsoon can still be forecasted reasonably, probably because of its closer relationship with large-scale circulation patterns and E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation.
