Fluvial systems play a crucial role in coastal and riverine ecosystems, making it essential to understand their responses to sea level changes for preserving biodiversity and managing natural resources. The evolution ...Fluvial systems play a crucial role in coastal and riverine ecosystems, making it essential to understand their responses to sea level changes for preserving biodiversity and managing natural resources. The evolution of the modern Indus River Delta offers a rare opportunity to study the interplay between sea level fluctuations, tectonism, sediment supply, and the corresponding fluvial responses. This study employs the ‘SedSim' stratigraphic forward model to simulate the delta's evolution from 200 kyr to the next5 kyr, drawing on data from field observations, Landsat imagery, digital elevation models, and previous studies. The model consists of 205 layers, each representing a 1-kyr time step, covering the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Between 200 kyr and 130 kyr, during a lowstand period, sedimentation on the delta plain continued due to partial flow from the Indus River. During the last interglacial(130–60 kyr), rising sea levels led to peak sediment deposition, characteristic of a highstand phase. From 60 kyr to 18 kyr, sea levels dropped to their lowest during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), resulting in extensive erosion and minimal deposition on the delta plain. From 18 kyr to the present, rapidly rising sea levels, coupled with intensified monsoon activity, increased sedimentation rates and triggered avulsion and aggradation processes. The model accurately predicted depositional thickness across the delta plain, indicating a maximum of ca. 200 m at the shoreline platform, ca. 175 m in the northeastern delta, and ca. 100 m in the central delta. The study underscores the delta's vulnerability to future sea level rise, which–at a projected rate of 1 m/kyr–could significantly influence the densely populated, low-lying delta plain. These findings offer valuable insights into the geomorphic evolution of the Indus Delta and emphasize the socioeconomic implications of sea level change, underscoring the importance of proactive management and adaptation strategies.展开更多
The Thwaites Glacier in western Antarctica(Fig. 1) keeps glaciologists and climate scientists awake at night. The 120 kmwide glacier loses about 45 billion tonnes of ice each year, accounting for about 4% of global se...The Thwaites Glacier in western Antarctica(Fig. 1) keeps glaciologists and climate scientists awake at night. The 120 kmwide glacier loses about 45 billion tonnes of ice each year, accounting for about 4% of global sea level rise [1]. If it melted completely, sea levels would climb 65 cm, and follow-on effects could lead to a 3 m increase [2]. But if some scientists' vision becomes reality, in 10–15 years construction crews will sail into the Amundsen Sea off Antarctica to begin building an 80 km long underwater curtain that will shield the glacier from the warm currents that are accelerating its decline [3].展开更多
Sea level has been rising gradually in recent decades.Against this background,this study utilizes synchronous multialtimeter measurements to investigate variations in wind and wave fields relative to sea level anomaly...Sea level has been rising gradually in recent decades.Against this background,this study utilizes synchronous multialtimeter measurements to investigate variations in wind and wave fields relative to sea level anomaly(SLA)in the China Seas and its adjacent waters.The validation between Haiyang-2(HY-2)measurement proceeded to be geophysical data records(GDR)and moored buoys indicate that HY-2 scatterometer-measured wind speed outperforms that derived from altimeter,with lower root-mean-squared error(RMSE)(1.87 m/s vs.2.03 m/s),smaller bias(−0.06 m/s vs.0.47 m/s),same correlation(COR)(0.84),and reduced scatter index(SI)(0.27 vs.0.29).Conversely,GDR product from HY-2 altimeter demonstrates reliable accuracy of significant wave height(SWH)(RMSE:0.37 m,bias:−0.03 m,COR:0.92,SI:0.30).Further time series analysis of HY-2 data reveals synchronized oscillations among SLA,wind speed and SWH with SLA strongly influencing wind speed under extreme conditions.Seasonal and regional disparities are evident:wind speed positively correlates with SLA in spring but shows a negative correlation in summer,while autumn and winter exhibit weak correlations.Periodic linkages between SWH and SLA are prominent in summer and autumn.In addition,the regional analysis shows that the Bohai Sea experiences declining autumn/winter wind speeds with higher SLA but without consistent SWH trends,while the Yellow Sea demonstrates summer covariation among wind speed,SWH and SLA.The East China Sea maintains synchronized SLA-wind speed-SWH relationship throughout spring,summer and winter,while the South China Sea shows alignment only in spring.The largest SLA,wind speed and SWH variations occur in the East China Sea and South China Sea,primarily driven by vigorous energy exchanges processes with the open ocean.These findings highlight distinct response mechanisms of regional marine dynamics to SLA,shaped by localized hydrological-climatic interactions.展开更多
High-accuracy Sea level prediction is important for understanding marine environments and climate change.In this work,a deep convolutional neural network(CNN)combined with attention mechanism(ADNN)is established for s...High-accuracy Sea level prediction is important for understanding marine environments and climate change.In this work,a deep convolutional neural network(CNN)combined with attention mechanism(ADNN)is established for sea level anomaly(SLA)prediction from historical satellite observations.Multi-year(1998-2020)radar altimetry observed SLA pattern samples in the South China Sea are used for model training and testing.Compared with existing deep learning models such as CNN and convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)network,ADNN demonstrates the highest accuracies of 94.0%,91.1%,88.4%and 86.2%for 1-d,3-d,5-d and 7-d SLA field predictions,with regional average root mean square errors(RMSE)of 0.27 cm,0.51 cm,0.80 cm and 1.09 cm,respectively.The integration of CNN and attention mechanism significantly improves the model performance,especially in estimating short-term sea level changes,with a 74.7%reduction in the RMSE for 1-d predictions compared to the baseline CNN model.Comparative experiments also show that the ADNN model performs well when the input data contains a certain degree of noise.Moreover,a multivariate ADNN(M-ADNN)model is designed to investigate the impacts of environmental variables such as sea surface temperature(SST)and wind on SLA prediction.The model yields a slightly higher accuracy but the results are quite similar to those of the ADNN model.The findings suggest that,although SST or wind can affect sea level changes,the ADNN model demonstrates the ability to identify and learn sufficient information about sea level changes solely from satellite altimetry measurements of SLA,especially for relatively long-term(≥5 d)predictions.This eliminates the need for additional input parameter data,thereby improving the SLA prediction efficiency.展开更多
Fish scaleδ^(15)N(δ^(15)N_(sca))records trophic information of the whole life history for marine fishes.Data from gut content and values calculated from white muscle tissue(WMT)are insufficient for assessing trophic...Fish scaleδ^(15)N(δ^(15)N_(sca))records trophic information of the whole life history for marine fishes.Data from gut content and values calculated from white muscle tissue(WMT)are insufficient for assessing trophic level(TL)of marine fishes as they only provide the information of several months or even several days.Stable isotope analysis(SIA)of nitrogen was carried out in fish scales and WMT of 16 species from a total of 28 individuals captured from the Yellow Sea and northern East China Sea in October and November of 2019,aiming at discovering the correlation betweenδ^(15)N_(sca) and fish WMTδ^(15)N(δ^(15)NWMT),so as to useδ^(15)N_(sca) for the characterization of TLs of marine fish.Scales were analyzed without prior carbonate dissolution as a pre-processing step.TL calculated fromδ^(15)N_(sca) was compared to traditional TL formula calculated withδ^(15)N_(WMT) to estimate the accuracy.We found that there was a highly significant and positive correlation(r=0.830,P<0.001)betweenδ^(15)N_(sca) andδ^(15)N_(WMT).TL calculation results using fish scale(TL_(sca))and WMT(TL_(WMT))showed congruence(r=0.773,P<0.001),and the regression coefficient betweenδ^(15)N_(sca) andδ^(15)NWMT was used for calculating TLsca.The conversion was conducted for the purpose of comparison with previousδ^(15)N_(WMT)-based calculation results of TL.TLsca calculation results were 81.25%within the TL range of±10%calculated withδ^(15)NWMT.The findings in the present study showed thatδ^(15)N_(sca) is a viable technique for the characterization of the TL of marine fish and can help to predict food web and support the study of marine ecosystem.展开更多
In this study,convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model is used to predict sea level anomaly(SLA)in the Kuroshio Extension(KE)region,utilizing daily satellite altimetry data(1993-2016).The model captures reg...In this study,convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model is used to predict sea level anomaly(SLA)in the Kuroshio Extension(KE)region,utilizing daily satellite altimetry data(1993-2016).The model captures regional averaged SLA variability,achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.98 for prediction horizon up to 23 d.Propagating features of Rossby waves are also reproduced in the prediction model.While in spatial,discrepancies between predicted SLA and observed SLA are quite large,especially in regions with strong eddy activities.Incorporating equation of motion for the 11/2-layer reduced-gravity model,the performance of the model has a significant improvement spatially and temporally.Challenges persist in high-variability regions,underscoring the need for advanced models.This study highlights ConvLSTM’s potential for SLA forecasting with wind driven physical constraints,offering insights into wind-driven and eddy-influenced processes in the KE region.展开更多
In this paper, ECOMSED （Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model with sediment transport） model is employed to simulate storm surge process caused by typhoon passing across East China Sea in nearly years. Capability of ECOMSED...In this paper, ECOMSED （Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model with sediment transport） model is employed to simulate storm surge process caused by typhoon passing across East China Sea in nearly years. Capability of ECOMSED to simulate storm surge is validated by comparing model result with observed data. Sensitivity experiments are designed to study the influence of sea level rise on typhoon storm surge. Numerical experiment shows that influence of mean sea level rise on typhoon storm surge is non-uniform spatially and changes as typhoon process differs. Maybe fixed boundary method would weaken the influence of mean sea level rise on storm surge, and free boundary method is suggested for the succeeding study.展开更多
According to the field survey and ^14C dating at Luhuitou, southern Hainan Island, a subsiding area, the authors conclude the high sea level history recorded by coral reef in the Holocene. At least 4 sea level high-st...According to the field survey and ^14C dating at Luhuitou, southern Hainan Island, a subsiding area, the authors conclude the high sea level history recorded by coral reef in the Holocene. At least 4 sea level high-stands can be identified from the distribution of coral reef ages： 7300 - 6000 cal.aBP, 4800 - 4700 cal.aBP, 4300 - 4200 cal.aBP and 3100 - 2900 cal.aBP. The highest sea level occurred around 7300 - 6700 cal.aBP, and biological-morphological zones took their shape during the stage. The later coral reefs developed in ponds, depressions, and developed outwards on both sides of Luhuitou peninsula. The modern coral reefs are developing in out reef flat and reef-front slope. Moreover, the time of high sea levels in the northern South China Sea recorded by coral reefs in the Luhuitou peninsula can link up with that in other parts of South China Sea. That means the high sea levels in the South China Sea during the Holocene, which are relative to the warming climate, have the global background.展开更多
Sea level seasonal variations in the east of China seas from 2004 to 2006 are simulated by the advanced ROMS model. The results show similar sea level spatial features with TOPEX/Poseidon observations, with annual ran...Sea level seasonal variations in the east of China seas from 2004 to 2006 are simulated by the advanced ROMS model. The results show similar sea level spatial features with TOPEX/Poseidon observations, with annual ranges decreasing gradually from the sea coast to the Kuroshio region. By getting rid of wind stress in ROMS model, the simulated sea level results still show obvious seasonal variations. However, the phenomenon of sea level anomaly disappears in Min Zhe Current Coastwise （MZCF） and Su Bei current coastwise （SBCF）, and the change of it from coastal area to ocean recedes. The seal level difference between Bohai, Yellow Sea （BYS） and East China Sea （ECS） becomes weaker in spring and autumn. The annual differences decrease obviously, and the gradual change of annual ranges from seacoast to the Kuroshio almost disappears. The annual ranges in BYS are nearly identical. The annual range ratio without the wind stress to with the wind stress increases gradually from the sea coast to Kuroshio region.展开更多
Based on a large number of actual data, the author believe that the modem global warming and sea level rise resulted from climate warming after the cold front of the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago and the developm...Based on a large number of actual data, the author believe that the modem global warming and sea level rise resulted from climate warming after the cold front of the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago and the developmnet of the sea level rise phase. In the past 30 years, the rate of sea level rise was increasing, which is under the background of the average temperature uplift 0.2F°（0.11℃）every 10 years in succession from the 1980s to the past 10 years this century. On the basis of the absolute and relative sea-level rise rate that was calculated from the tidal data during the same period at home and abroad in the last 30 years, in accordance with the resolutions of the 2010 climate conference in Cancun, at the same time, considering the previous prediction and research, the world＇s sea levels and the relative sea level in Tianjin, Shanghai, Dongying, Xiamen, Haikou and other coastal cities that have severe land subsidence in 2050 and 2100 are calculated and evaluated.展开更多
Ouvéa Island in New Caledonia emerges as a new sea level standard. It has excellent morphological records of former sea level positions at interglacial high-stands as well as records of Holocene changes in sea le...Ouvéa Island in New Caledonia emerges as a new sea level standard. It has excellent morphological records of former sea level positions at interglacial high-stands as well as records of Holocene changes in sea level from a maximum at about +1.5 m via a significant +70 cm level of sub-recent, probably 17<sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> century, age to a stable to falling sea level in present time.</span>展开更多
In the Late Cambrian, the North China Platform was a typical carbonate ramp platform. The Upper Cambrian of the northern part of the North China Platform is famous for the development of bioherm limestones and storm c...In the Late Cambrian, the North China Platform was a typical carbonate ramp platform. The Upper Cambrian of the northern part of the North China Platform is famous for the development of bioherm limestones and storm calcirudites and can be divided from bottom to top into the Gushan, Changshan and Fengshan formations. In this set of strata, the deep-ramp mudstone and marls and the shallow-ramp packstones and grainstones constitute many carbonate meter-scale cycles of subtidal type. More tidal-flat dolomites are developed in the Upper Cambrian of the southern margin of the North China platform, in which limestone and dolomite beds also constitute many carbonate meter-scale cycles of the peritidal type. These cycles are marked by a variety of litho-facies successions. There are regularly vertical stacking patterns of meter-scale cycles in long-term third-order sequences, which is the key to discerning such sequences. Third- order sequence is marked by a particular sedimentary-facies succession that is the result of the environment-changing process of deepening and shoaling, which is genetically related to third-order sea level changes. Furthermore, four third- order sequences can be grouped in the Upper Cambrian of the North China Platform. The main features of these four third -order sequences in the northern part of the platform can be summarized as follows: firstly, sequence-boundaries are characterized by drowning unconformities; secondly, the sedimentary-facies succession is generally constituted by one from deep-ramp facies to shallow-ramp facies; thirdly, a succession of “CS (?)+HST” (i.e., “condensed section and high- stand system”) forms these four third-order sequences. The chief features for the third-order sequences in the southern part of the North China Platform comprises: more dolomites are developed in the HSTs of third-order sequences and also developed more carbonate meter-scale cycles of peritidal types; the sedimentary-facies succession of the third-order sequences is marked by “shallow ramp-tidal flat”; the sequence boundaries are characterized by exposure punctuated surfaces. According to the changes for the third-order sequences from the north to the south, a regular sequence- stratigraphic framework can be established. From cycles to sequences, the study of sequence stratigraphy from litho-facies successions to sedimentary-facies successions exposes that as follows: meter-scale cycles that are used as the basic working unit actually are litho-facies successions formed by the mechanism of a punctuated aggradational cycle, and third -order sequences that are constituted by regularly vertical stacking patterns of meter-scale cycles are marked by sedimentary-facies successions. On the basis of the changing curve of water depth at each section, the curve of the relative third-order sea level changes in the late Cambrian of the North China Platform can be integrated qualitatively from changing curve of water depth. The correlation of Late Cambrian long-term sea level changes between North China and North America demonstrates that there are not only similarities but also differences, reflecting control of long-term sea level changes both by global eustacy and by regional factors.展开更多
Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–210...Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.展开更多
Mangroves,widely distributed along the coasts of tropical China,are influenced by Asia monsoon,relative sea level change and enhanced human activity.To predict the impacts of future climate change on mangrove ecosyste...Mangroves,widely distributed along the coasts of tropical China,are influenced by Asia monsoon,relative sea level change and enhanced human activity.To predict the impacts of future climate change on mangrove ecosystems,it can be understood by reconstructing past mangrove dynamics using proxies preserved in coastal sediments.In this study,we quantitatively partitioned buried organic matter(OM)sources,collected from a vulnerable mangrove swamp in the Qinzhou Bay of northwestern South China Sea,using a ternary end-member mixing model of δ^13C and C:N values.Mangrove-derived OM(MOM)contribution was used as a tracer for mangrove development since 2.34 cal ka BP.This information,together with paleoclimate records(i.e.,speleothem δ^18O values,sea level change,grain size parameters)and human activity,was used to divide mangrove development into three stages during the late Holocene:relative flourish(2.34-1.13 cal ka BP),relative degradation(1.13-0.15 cal ka BP)and further degradation(0.15-0 cal ka BP).Before 1.13 cal ka BP,mangroves flourished with a high MOM contribution((88.9±10.6)%),corresponding to stable and high sea level under a warm and humid climate.After 1.13 cal ka BP,rapid fall in relative sea level coupled with the strengthening of the Asian winter monsoon,resulted in mangrove degradation and MOM reduction((62.4±18.9)%).Compared with air temperature and precipitation,the relative sea level fall was the main controlling factor in mangrove development before entering the Anthropocene(the time of the Industrial Revolution).After^150 cal a BP,reclamation of mangrove swamps to shrimp ponds is the main factor causing mangrove degradation and MOM reduction.展开更多
Tidal waves in the East China Sea are simulated numerically with POM(Princeton Ocean Model) model for normal mean sea level, 30 cm higher, 60 cm higher, and 100 cm higher, respectively, and the simulated result is com...Tidal waves in the East China Sea are simulated numerically with POM(Princeton Ocean Model) model for normal mean sea level, 30 cm higher, 60 cm higher, and 100 cm higher, respectively, and the simulated result is compared with the harmonic analysis result of hourly sea level data from 19 tide gauges for more than 19 years. It is indicated that the long-term mean sea level variation affects notably tidal waves in this region. Generally, the tidal amplitude increases when the mean sea level rises, but this relationship may be inverse for some sea areas. The maximal variation of tidal amplitude takes place in the zones near the Fujian coast and the Zhejiang coast, rather than the shallowest Bohai Sea. The maximum increase of M2 amplitude can exceed about 15 cm corresponding to the 60 cm rise of the mean sea level along the Fujian coast. The other regions with large variations of tidal amplitude are those along the Jiangsu coast, the south-east coast of Shandong, and the south-east coast of Dalian. The propagation of tidal waves is also related to mean sea level variation, and the tidal phase-lag decreases generally when the mean sea level rises. Almost all the regions where the tidal phase-lag increases with rising mean sea level are close to amphidromic points, meanwhile the spatial area of such regions is very small. Because the influence of mean sea level variation upon tidal waves is spatially marked, such spatial effect should be considered in calculation of the tidal characteristic value and engineering water level. In the region where the amplitudes of the major tidal constituents increase, the probable maximum high water level becomes higher, the probable maximum low water level becomes lower, and both design water level andcheck water level increase obviously. For example, the design water level at Xiamen increases by 13.5 cm due to the variation of tidal waves when the mean sea level rises 60 cm, the total increase of design water level being 73.5 cm.展开更多
This paper first introduces procedures leading to the establishment of Late Permian-Middle Triassic sea level change curve of Yangtze platform. Bathymetric curves extracted from curve of habitat types are first trans...This paper first introduces procedures leading to the establishment of Late Permian-Middle Triassic sea level change curve of Yangtze platform. Bathymetric curves extracted from curve of habitat types are first transformed to sea level curves stage by stage. Comparison between curves of Yangtze and the world reveals that because the Late Permian marine sequences are lacking in most parts of the world, the Late Permian to Griesbachian curve of Yangtze may serve as an important reference for further revision of the world curve. The Early-Middle Triassic short-term changes of Yangtze are briefly concordant with those of Haq's world curve, whereas their long-term changes are discordant. The latter, however, is representative of the East Asian regions affected by the Indosinian orogeny. Basically the third cycles of Yangtze and the world are only pertly concordant, and even in concordant cases their concrete boundaries are not coincident. This indicater that sea level changes are not strictly synchronous over the world. It seems that the 1st and 2nd cycles (supercycles and megacycles) may be world-wide, but not the 3rd cycles.展开更多
The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resol...The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea （SCS）. Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation （RMSD） of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error （AGE） perform better than no AGE error （NoAGE） when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models.展开更多
Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large u...Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.展开更多
A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai regi...A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR’s effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT’s: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone’s path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region.展开更多
Sea level variability in the East China Sea （ECS） was examined based primarily on the analysis of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data and tide gauge data as well as numerical simulation with the Princeton ocean model （PO...Sea level variability in the East China Sea （ECS） was examined based primarily on the analysis of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data and tide gauge data as well as numerical simulation with the Princeton ocean model （POM）. It is concluded that the inter-annual sea level variation in the ECS is negatively correlated with the ENSO index, and that the impact is more apparent in the southern area than in the northern area. Both data analysis and numerical model results also show that the sea level was lower during the typical E1 Niflo period of 1997 to 1998. E1 Nifio also causes the decrease of the annual sea level variation range in the ECS. This phenomenon is especially evident in the southern ECS. The impacts of wind stress and ocean circulation on the sea level variation in the ECS are also discussed in this paper. It is found that the wind stress most strongly affecting the sea level was in the directions of 70° and 20° south of east,, respectively, over the northern and southern areas of the ECS. The northwest wind is particularly strong when E1 Nifio occurs, and sea water is transported southeastward, which lowers the sea level in the southern ECS. The sea level variation in the southern ECS is also significantly affected by the strengthening of the Kuroshio. During the strengthening period of the Kuroshio, the sea level in the ECS usually drops, while the sea level rises when the Kuroshio weakens.展开更多
基金the Science and Technology Innovation Project of the Laoshan Laboratory (No. LSKJ202203402)the Major Research Project on the Tethys Geodynamic System from the National Science Foundation of China (No. 92055204)。
文摘Fluvial systems play a crucial role in coastal and riverine ecosystems, making it essential to understand their responses to sea level changes for preserving biodiversity and managing natural resources. The evolution of the modern Indus River Delta offers a rare opportunity to study the interplay between sea level fluctuations, tectonism, sediment supply, and the corresponding fluvial responses. This study employs the ‘SedSim' stratigraphic forward model to simulate the delta's evolution from 200 kyr to the next5 kyr, drawing on data from field observations, Landsat imagery, digital elevation models, and previous studies. The model consists of 205 layers, each representing a 1-kyr time step, covering the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Between 200 kyr and 130 kyr, during a lowstand period, sedimentation on the delta plain continued due to partial flow from the Indus River. During the last interglacial(130–60 kyr), rising sea levels led to peak sediment deposition, characteristic of a highstand phase. From 60 kyr to 18 kyr, sea levels dropped to their lowest during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), resulting in extensive erosion and minimal deposition on the delta plain. From 18 kyr to the present, rapidly rising sea levels, coupled with intensified monsoon activity, increased sedimentation rates and triggered avulsion and aggradation processes. The model accurately predicted depositional thickness across the delta plain, indicating a maximum of ca. 200 m at the shoreline platform, ca. 175 m in the northeastern delta, and ca. 100 m in the central delta. The study underscores the delta's vulnerability to future sea level rise, which–at a projected rate of 1 m/kyr–could significantly influence the densely populated, low-lying delta plain. These findings offer valuable insights into the geomorphic evolution of the Indus Delta and emphasize the socioeconomic implications of sea level change, underscoring the importance of proactive management and adaptation strategies.
文摘The Thwaites Glacier in western Antarctica(Fig. 1) keeps glaciologists and climate scientists awake at night. The 120 kmwide glacier loses about 45 billion tonnes of ice each year, accounting for about 4% of global sea level rise [1]. If it melted completely, sea levels would climb 65 cm, and follow-on effects could lead to a 3 m increase [2]. But if some scientists' vision becomes reality, in 10–15 years construction crews will sail into the Amundsen Sea off Antarctica to begin building an 80 km long underwater curtain that will shield the glacier from the warm currents that are accelerating its decline [3].
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.42376174the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai under contract No.23ZR1426900。
文摘Sea level has been rising gradually in recent decades.Against this background,this study utilizes synchronous multialtimeter measurements to investigate variations in wind and wave fields relative to sea level anomaly(SLA)in the China Seas and its adjacent waters.The validation between Haiyang-2(HY-2)measurement proceeded to be geophysical data records(GDR)and moored buoys indicate that HY-2 scatterometer-measured wind speed outperforms that derived from altimeter,with lower root-mean-squared error(RMSE)(1.87 m/s vs.2.03 m/s),smaller bias(−0.06 m/s vs.0.47 m/s),same correlation(COR)(0.84),and reduced scatter index(SI)(0.27 vs.0.29).Conversely,GDR product from HY-2 altimeter demonstrates reliable accuracy of significant wave height(SWH)(RMSE:0.37 m,bias:−0.03 m,COR:0.92,SI:0.30).Further time series analysis of HY-2 data reveals synchronized oscillations among SLA,wind speed and SWH with SLA strongly influencing wind speed under extreme conditions.Seasonal and regional disparities are evident:wind speed positively correlates with SLA in spring but shows a negative correlation in summer,while autumn and winter exhibit weak correlations.Periodic linkages between SWH and SLA are prominent in summer and autumn.In addition,the regional analysis shows that the Bohai Sea experiences declining autumn/winter wind speeds with higher SLA but without consistent SWH trends,while the Yellow Sea demonstrates summer covariation among wind speed,SWH and SLA.The East China Sea maintains synchronized SLA-wind speed-SWH relationship throughout spring,summer and winter,while the South China Sea shows alignment only in spring.The largest SLA,wind speed and SWH variations occur in the East China Sea and South China Sea,primarily driven by vigorous energy exchanges processes with the open ocean.These findings highlight distinct response mechanisms of regional marine dynamics to SLA,shaped by localized hydrological-climatic interactions.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos T2261149752 and 42476172the Open Funding of the Technology Innovation Center for South China Sea Remote Sensing,Surveying and Mapping Collaborative Application,Ministry of Natural Resources,P.R.China under contract No.RSSMCA-2024-B001。
文摘High-accuracy Sea level prediction is important for understanding marine environments and climate change.In this work,a deep convolutional neural network(CNN)combined with attention mechanism(ADNN)is established for sea level anomaly(SLA)prediction from historical satellite observations.Multi-year(1998-2020)radar altimetry observed SLA pattern samples in the South China Sea are used for model training and testing.Compared with existing deep learning models such as CNN and convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)network,ADNN demonstrates the highest accuracies of 94.0%,91.1%,88.4%and 86.2%for 1-d,3-d,5-d and 7-d SLA field predictions,with regional average root mean square errors(RMSE)of 0.27 cm,0.51 cm,0.80 cm and 1.09 cm,respectively.The integration of CNN and attention mechanism significantly improves the model performance,especially in estimating short-term sea level changes,with a 74.7%reduction in the RMSE for 1-d predictions compared to the baseline CNN model.Comparative experiments also show that the ADNN model performs well when the input data contains a certain degree of noise.Moreover,a multivariate ADNN(M-ADNN)model is designed to investigate the impacts of environmental variables such as sea surface temperature(SST)and wind on SLA prediction.The model yields a slightly higher accuracy but the results are quite similar to those of the ADNN model.The findings suggest that,although SST or wind can affect sea level changes,the ADNN model demonstrates the ability to identify and learn sufficient information about sea level changes solely from satellite altimetry measurements of SLA,especially for relatively long-term(≥5 d)predictions.This eliminates the need for additional input parameter data,thereby improving the SLA prediction efficiency.
基金supported by the Scientific Research Foundation of Hainan Tropical Ocean University(No.RHDRC202312)the Major Science and Technology Project of Yazhou Bay Innovation Institute of Hainan Tropical Ocean University:Research on Hainan Coastal Marine Ecological Environment and Carbon Sink(No.2022CXYZD002).
文摘Fish scaleδ^(15)N(δ^(15)N_(sca))records trophic information of the whole life history for marine fishes.Data from gut content and values calculated from white muscle tissue(WMT)are insufficient for assessing trophic level(TL)of marine fishes as they only provide the information of several months or even several days.Stable isotope analysis(SIA)of nitrogen was carried out in fish scales and WMT of 16 species from a total of 28 individuals captured from the Yellow Sea and northern East China Sea in October and November of 2019,aiming at discovering the correlation betweenδ^(15)N_(sca) and fish WMTδ^(15)N(δ^(15)NWMT),so as to useδ^(15)N_(sca) for the characterization of TLs of marine fish.Scales were analyzed without prior carbonate dissolution as a pre-processing step.TL calculated fromδ^(15)N_(sca) was compared to traditional TL formula calculated withδ^(15)N_(WMT) to estimate the accuracy.We found that there was a highly significant and positive correlation(r=0.830,P<0.001)betweenδ^(15)N_(sca) andδ^(15)N_(WMT).TL calculation results using fish scale(TL_(sca))and WMT(TL_(WMT))showed congruence(r=0.773,P<0.001),and the regression coefficient betweenδ^(15)N_(sca) andδ^(15)NWMT was used for calculating TLsca.The conversion was conducted for the purpose of comparison with previousδ^(15)N_(WMT)-based calculation results of TL.TLsca calculation results were 81.25%within the TL range of±10%calculated withδ^(15)NWMT.The findings in the present study showed thatδ^(15)N_(sca) is a viable technique for the characterization of the TL of marine fish and can help to predict food web and support the study of marine ecosystem.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.42276014Jiangsu Natural Resources Development Special Fund(Marine Science and Technology Innovation)under contract No.JSZRKJ202403.
文摘In this study,convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model is used to predict sea level anomaly(SLA)in the Kuroshio Extension(KE)region,utilizing daily satellite altimetry data(1993-2016).The model captures regional averaged SLA variability,achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.98 for prediction horizon up to 23 d.Propagating features of Rossby waves are also reproduced in the prediction model.While in spatial,discrepancies between predicted SLA and observed SLA are quite large,especially in regions with strong eddy activities.Incorporating equation of motion for the 11/2-layer reduced-gravity model,the performance of the model has a significant improvement spatially and temporally.Challenges persist in high-variability regions,underscoring the need for advanced models.This study highlights ConvLSTM’s potential for SLA forecasting with wind driven physical constraints,offering insights into wind-driven and eddy-influenced processes in the KE region.
文摘In this paper, ECOMSED （Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model with sediment transport） model is employed to simulate storm surge process caused by typhoon passing across East China Sea in nearly years. Capability of ECOMSED to simulate storm surge is validated by comparing model result with observed data. Sensitivity experiments are designed to study the influence of sea level rise on typhoon storm surge. Numerical experiment shows that influence of mean sea level rise on typhoon storm surge is non-uniform spatially and changes as typhoon process differs. Maybe fixed boundary method would weaken the influence of mean sea level rise on storm surge, and free boundary method is suggested for the succeeding study.
基金We gratefully acknowledge the financial supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.49976015).
文摘According to the field survey and ^14C dating at Luhuitou, southern Hainan Island, a subsiding area, the authors conclude the high sea level history recorded by coral reef in the Holocene. At least 4 sea level high-stands can be identified from the distribution of coral reef ages： 7300 - 6000 cal.aBP, 4800 - 4700 cal.aBP, 4300 - 4200 cal.aBP and 3100 - 2900 cal.aBP. The highest sea level occurred around 7300 - 6700 cal.aBP, and biological-morphological zones took their shape during the stage. The later coral reefs developed in ponds, depressions, and developed outwards on both sides of Luhuitou peninsula. The modern coral reefs are developing in out reef flat and reef-front slope. Moreover, the time of high sea levels in the northern South China Sea recorded by coral reefs in the Luhuitou peninsula can link up with that in other parts of South China Sea. That means the high sea levels in the South China Sea during the Holocene, which are relative to the warming climate, have the global background.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(contract No.41006002,No.41206013 and No.41106004)Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Institute of Oceanography of SOA(contract No.SOED1305)+3 种基金Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves,Chinese Academy of Sciences(contract No.KLOCAW1302)the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean(contract No.200905001,No.201005019,and No.201205018)the Natural Science Foundation of State Ocean Administration(contract No.2012202,No.2012223,and No.2012224)Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography,MOE(contract of Song jun)
文摘Sea level seasonal variations in the east of China seas from 2004 to 2006 are simulated by the advanced ROMS model. The results show similar sea level spatial features with TOPEX/Poseidon observations, with annual ranges decreasing gradually from the sea coast to the Kuroshio region. By getting rid of wind stress in ROMS model, the simulated sea level results still show obvious seasonal variations. However, the phenomenon of sea level anomaly disappears in Min Zhe Current Coastwise （MZCF） and Su Bei current coastwise （SBCF）, and the change of it from coastal area to ocean recedes. The seal level difference between Bohai, Yellow Sea （BYS） and East China Sea （ECS） becomes weaker in spring and autumn. The annual differences decrease obviously, and the gradual change of annual ranges from seacoast to the Kuroshio almost disappears. The annual ranges in BYS are nearly identical. The annual range ratio without the wind stress to with the wind stress increases gradually from the sea coast to Kuroshio region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40940025)Natural Science Fund of Tianjin (No.07ZCGYSF02400 and 09JCYBJC07400)+2 种基金National ‘973’ Project (No.2007CB411807)State Oceanic Administration of the marine atmosphere-Chemistry and global change open fund of Key Laboratory (No.GCMAC0806)the National Natural Science Fund(No.41006002)
文摘Based on a large number of actual data, the author believe that the modem global warming and sea level rise resulted from climate warming after the cold front of the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago and the developmnet of the sea level rise phase. In the past 30 years, the rate of sea level rise was increasing, which is under the background of the average temperature uplift 0.2F°（0.11℃）every 10 years in succession from the 1980s to the past 10 years this century. On the basis of the absolute and relative sea-level rise rate that was calculated from the tidal data during the same period at home and abroad in the last 30 years, in accordance with the resolutions of the 2010 climate conference in Cancun, at the same time, considering the previous prediction and research, the world＇s sea levels and the relative sea level in Tianjin, Shanghai, Dongying, Xiamen, Haikou and other coastal cities that have severe land subsidence in 2050 and 2100 are calculated and evaluated.
文摘Ouvéa Island in New Caledonia emerges as a new sea level standard. It has excellent morphological records of former sea level positions at interglacial high-stands as well as records of Holocene changes in sea level from a maximum at about +1.5 m via a significant +70 cm level of sub-recent, probably 17<sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;">th</span></sup><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> century, age to a stable to falling sea level in present time.</span>
文摘In the Late Cambrian, the North China Platform was a typical carbonate ramp platform. The Upper Cambrian of the northern part of the North China Platform is famous for the development of bioherm limestones and storm calcirudites and can be divided from bottom to top into the Gushan, Changshan and Fengshan formations. In this set of strata, the deep-ramp mudstone and marls and the shallow-ramp packstones and grainstones constitute many carbonate meter-scale cycles of subtidal type. More tidal-flat dolomites are developed in the Upper Cambrian of the southern margin of the North China platform, in which limestone and dolomite beds also constitute many carbonate meter-scale cycles of the peritidal type. These cycles are marked by a variety of litho-facies successions. There are regularly vertical stacking patterns of meter-scale cycles in long-term third-order sequences, which is the key to discerning such sequences. Third- order sequence is marked by a particular sedimentary-facies succession that is the result of the environment-changing process of deepening and shoaling, which is genetically related to third-order sea level changes. Furthermore, four third- order sequences can be grouped in the Upper Cambrian of the North China Platform. The main features of these four third -order sequences in the northern part of the platform can be summarized as follows: firstly, sequence-boundaries are characterized by drowning unconformities; secondly, the sedimentary-facies succession is generally constituted by one from deep-ramp facies to shallow-ramp facies; thirdly, a succession of “CS (?)+HST” (i.e., “condensed section and high- stand system”) forms these four third-order sequences. The chief features for the third-order sequences in the southern part of the North China Platform comprises: more dolomites are developed in the HSTs of third-order sequences and also developed more carbonate meter-scale cycles of peritidal types; the sedimentary-facies succession of the third-order sequences is marked by “shallow ramp-tidal flat”; the sequence boundaries are characterized by exposure punctuated surfaces. According to the changes for the third-order sequences from the north to the south, a regular sequence- stratigraphic framework can be established. From cycles to sequences, the study of sequence stratigraphy from litho-facies successions to sedimentary-facies successions exposes that as follows: meter-scale cycles that are used as the basic working unit actually are litho-facies successions formed by the mechanism of a punctuated aggradational cycle, and third -order sequences that are constituted by regularly vertical stacking patterns of meter-scale cycles are marked by sedimentary-facies successions. On the basis of the changing curve of water depth at each section, the curve of the relative third-order sea level changes in the late Cambrian of the North China Platform can be integrated qualitatively from changing curve of water depth. The correlation of Late Cambrian long-term sea level changes between North China and North America demonstrates that there are not only similarities but also differences, reflecting control of long-term sea level changes both by global eustacy and by regional factors.
基金The National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China under contract No.2010CB950501the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41276035the National Natural Science Foundation of China–Shandong Province Joint Fund of Marine Science Research Centers under contract No.U1406404
文摘Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea （SCS） is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway （RCP） scenarios. By the end of the 21st century （2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005）, the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level （DSL） is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise （SLR） of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level （SSL） rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41576067 and 41576061the Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institutes of China under contract No.2017Q03the National Basic Research Program(973Program)of China under contract No.2010CB951203
文摘Mangroves,widely distributed along the coasts of tropical China,are influenced by Asia monsoon,relative sea level change and enhanced human activity.To predict the impacts of future climate change on mangrove ecosystems,it can be understood by reconstructing past mangrove dynamics using proxies preserved in coastal sediments.In this study,we quantitatively partitioned buried organic matter(OM)sources,collected from a vulnerable mangrove swamp in the Qinzhou Bay of northwestern South China Sea,using a ternary end-member mixing model of δ^13C and C:N values.Mangrove-derived OM(MOM)contribution was used as a tracer for mangrove development since 2.34 cal ka BP.This information,together with paleoclimate records(i.e.,speleothem δ^18O values,sea level change,grain size parameters)and human activity,was used to divide mangrove development into three stages during the late Holocene:relative flourish(2.34-1.13 cal ka BP),relative degradation(1.13-0.15 cal ka BP)and further degradation(0.15-0 cal ka BP).Before 1.13 cal ka BP,mangroves flourished with a high MOM contribution((88.9±10.6)%),corresponding to stable and high sea level under a warm and humid climate.After 1.13 cal ka BP,rapid fall in relative sea level coupled with the strengthening of the Asian winter monsoon,resulted in mangrove degradation and MOM reduction((62.4±18.9)%).Compared with air temperature and precipitation,the relative sea level fall was the main controlling factor in mangrove development before entering the Anthropocene(the time of the Industrial Revolution).After^150 cal a BP,reclamation of mangrove swamps to shrimp ponds is the main factor causing mangrove degradation and MOM reduction.
文摘Tidal waves in the East China Sea are simulated numerically with POM(Princeton Ocean Model) model for normal mean sea level, 30 cm higher, 60 cm higher, and 100 cm higher, respectively, and the simulated result is compared with the harmonic analysis result of hourly sea level data from 19 tide gauges for more than 19 years. It is indicated that the long-term mean sea level variation affects notably tidal waves in this region. Generally, the tidal amplitude increases when the mean sea level rises, but this relationship may be inverse for some sea areas. The maximal variation of tidal amplitude takes place in the zones near the Fujian coast and the Zhejiang coast, rather than the shallowest Bohai Sea. The maximum increase of M2 amplitude can exceed about 15 cm corresponding to the 60 cm rise of the mean sea level along the Fujian coast. The other regions with large variations of tidal amplitude are those along the Jiangsu coast, the south-east coast of Shandong, and the south-east coast of Dalian. The propagation of tidal waves is also related to mean sea level variation, and the tidal phase-lag decreases generally when the mean sea level rises. Almost all the regions where the tidal phase-lag increases with rising mean sea level are close to amphidromic points, meanwhile the spatial area of such regions is very small. Because the influence of mean sea level variation upon tidal waves is spatially marked, such spatial effect should be considered in calculation of the tidal characteristic value and engineering water level. In the region where the amplitudes of the major tidal constituents increase, the probable maximum high water level becomes higher, the probable maximum low water level becomes lower, and both design water level andcheck water level increase obviously. For example, the design water level at Xiamen increases by 13.5 cm due to the variation of tidal waves when the mean sea level rises 60 cm, the total increase of design water level being 73.5 cm.
文摘This paper first introduces procedures leading to the establishment of Late Permian-Middle Triassic sea level change curve of Yangtze platform. Bathymetric curves extracted from curve of habitat types are first transformed to sea level curves stage by stage. Comparison between curves of Yangtze and the world reveals that because the Late Permian marine sequences are lacking in most parts of the world, the Late Permian to Griesbachian curve of Yangtze may serve as an important reference for further revision of the world curve. The Early-Middle Triassic short-term changes of Yangtze are briefly concordant with those of Haq's world curve, whereas their long-term changes are discordant. The latter, however, is representative of the East Asian regions affected by the Indosinian orogeny. Basically the third cycles of Yangtze and the world are only pertly concordant, and even in concordant cases their concrete boundaries are not coincident. This indicater that sea level changes are not strictly synchronous over the world. It seems that the 1st and 2nd cycles (supercycles and megacycles) may be world-wide, but not the 3rd cycles.
基金The Major State Basic Research Development Program of China under contract Nos 201-1CB403606 and 2011CB403500the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41222038,41076011and 41206023the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Operational Development Foundation of the State Oceanic Administration of China under contract No.2013002
文摘The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea （SCS）. Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation （RMSD） of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error （AGE） perform better than no AGE error （NoAGE） when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models.
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2010CB950102 and 2009CB421406)the Nansen Scientific Society(Norway)part of the SeaLev projects at the Centre of Climate Dynamics/Bjerknes Center in Bergen
文摘Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.
文摘A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR’s effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT’s: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone’s path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 program,Grant No 2007CB411807)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No40976006 and 40906002)+1 种基金the National Marine Public Welfare Research Project of China(Grant No201005019)the Project of Key Laboratory of Coastal Disasters and Defense of Ministry of Education of China(Grant No200802)
文摘Sea level variability in the East China Sea （ECS） was examined based primarily on the analysis of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data and tide gauge data as well as numerical simulation with the Princeton ocean model （POM）. It is concluded that the inter-annual sea level variation in the ECS is negatively correlated with the ENSO index, and that the impact is more apparent in the southern area than in the northern area. Both data analysis and numerical model results also show that the sea level was lower during the typical E1 Niflo period of 1997 to 1998. E1 Nifio also causes the decrease of the annual sea level variation range in the ECS. This phenomenon is especially evident in the southern ECS. The impacts of wind stress and ocean circulation on the sea level variation in the ECS are also discussed in this paper. It is found that the wind stress most strongly affecting the sea level was in the directions of 70° and 20° south of east,, respectively, over the northern and southern areas of the ECS. The northwest wind is particularly strong when E1 Nifio occurs, and sea water is transported southeastward, which lowers the sea level in the southern ECS. The sea level variation in the southern ECS is also significantly affected by the strengthening of the Kuroshio. During the strengthening period of the Kuroshio, the sea level in the ECS usually drops, while the sea level rises when the Kuroshio weakens.
