We present a large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events in stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise.We aim to consider a next-to-leading-order approximation for m...We present a large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events in stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise.We aim to consider a next-to-leading-order approximation for more accurate calculation of the mean exit time by computing large deviation prefactors with the aid of machine learning.More specifically,we design a neural network framework to compute quasipotential,most probable paths and prefactors based on the orthogonal decomposition of a vector field.We corroborate the higher effectiveness and accuracy of our algorithm with two toy models.Numerical experiments demonstrate its powerful functionality in exploring the internal mechanism of rare events triggered by weak random fluctuations.展开更多
In this paper symmetries and conservation laws for stochastic dynamical systems are discussed in detail. Determining equations for infinitesimal approximate symmetries of Ito and Stratonovich dynamical systems are der...In this paper symmetries and conservation laws for stochastic dynamical systems are discussed in detail. Determining equations for infinitesimal approximate symmetries of Ito and Stratonovich dynamical systems are derived. It shows how to derive conserved quantities for stochastic dynamical systems by using their symmetries without recourse to Noether＇s theorem.展开更多
This paper presents a linearized approach for the controller design of the shape of output probability density functions for general stochastic systems. A square root approximation to an output probability density fun...This paper presents a linearized approach for the controller design of the shape of output probability density functions for general stochastic systems. A square root approximation to an output probability density function is realized by a set of B-spline functions. This generally produces a nonlinear state space model for the weights of the B-spline approximation. A linearized model is therefore obtained and embedded into a performance function that measures the tracking error of the output probability density function with respect to a given distribution. By using this performance function as a Lyapunov function for the closed loop system, a feedback control input has been obtained which guarantees closed loop stability and realizes perfect tracking. The algorithm described in this paper has been tested on a simulated example and desired results have been achieved.展开更多
Nonlinear dynamical systems are sometimes under the influence of random fluctuations. It is desirable to examine possible bifurcations for stochastic dynamical systems when a parameter varies.A computational analysis ...Nonlinear dynamical systems are sometimes under the influence of random fluctuations. It is desirable to examine possible bifurcations for stochastic dynamical systems when a parameter varies.A computational analysis is conducted to investigate bifurcations of a simple dynamical system under non-Gaussian a-stable Levy motions, by examining the changes in stationary probability density functions for the solution orbits of this stochastic system. The stationary probability density functions are obtained by solving a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation numerically. This allows numerically investigating phenomenological bifurcation, or P-bifurcation, for stochastic differential equations with non-Gaussian Levy noises.展开更多
The present paper is devoted to the existence of the random attractor for partly dissipative stochastic lattice dynamical systems with multiplicative white noises.
Streamflow forecasting in drylands is challenging.Data are scarce,catchments are highly humanmodified and streamflow exhibits strong nonlinear responses to rainfall.The goal of this study was to evaluate the monthly a...Streamflow forecasting in drylands is challenging.Data are scarce,catchments are highly humanmodified and streamflow exhibits strong nonlinear responses to rainfall.The goal of this study was to evaluate the monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasting in two large catchments in the Jaguaribe River Basin in the Brazilian semi-arid area.We adopted four different lead times:one month ahead for monthly scale and two,three and four months ahead for seasonal scale.The gaps of the historic streamflow series were filled up by using rainfall-runoff modelling.Then,time series model techniques were applied,i.e.,the locally constant,the locally averaged,the k-nearest-neighbours algorithm(k-NN)and the autoregressive(AR)model.The criterion of reliability of the validation results is that the forecast is more skillful than streamflow climatology.Our approach outperformed the streamflow climatology for all monthly streamflows.On average,the former was 25%better than the latter.The seasonal streamflow forecasting(SSF)was also reliable(on average,20%better than the climatology),failing slightly only for the high flow season of one catchment(6%worse than the climatology).Considering an uncertainty envelope(probabilistic forecasting),which was considerably narrower than the data standard deviation,the streamflow forecasting performance increased by about 50%at both scales.The forecast errors were mainly driven by the streamflow intra-seasonality at monthly scale,while they were by the forecast lead time at seasonal scale.The best-fit and worst-fit time series model were the k-NN approach and the AR model,respectively.The rainfall-runoff modelling outputs played an important role in improving streamflow forecasting for one streamgauge that showed 35%of data gaps.The developed data-driven approach is mathematical and computationally very simple,demands few resources to accomplish its operational implementation and is applicable to other dryland watersheds.Our findings may be part of drought forecasting systems and potentially help allocating water months in advance.Moreover,the developed strategy can serve as a baseline for more complex streamflow forecast systems.展开更多
The probabilistic solutions to some nonlinear stochastic dynamic (NSD) systems with various polynomial types of nonlinearities in displacements are analyzed with the subspace-exponential polynomial closure (subspace-E...The probabilistic solutions to some nonlinear stochastic dynamic (NSD) systems with various polynomial types of nonlinearities in displacements are analyzed with the subspace-exponential polynomial closure (subspace-EPC) method. The space of the state variables of the large-scale nonlinear stochastic dynamic system excited by Gaussian white noises is separated into two subspaces. Both sides of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation corresponding to the NSD system are then integrated over one of the subspaces. The FPK equation for the joint probability density function of the state variables in the other subspace is formulated. Therefore, the FPK equations in low dimensions are obtained from the original FPK equation in high dimensions and the FPK equations in low dimensions are solvable with the exponential polynomial closure method. Examples about multi-degree-offreedom NSD systems with various polynomial types of nonlinearities in displacements are given to show the effectiveness of the subspace-EPC method in these cases.展开更多
The probabilistic solutions of the nonlinear stochastic dynamic(NSD)systems with polynomial type of nonlinearity are investigated with the subspace-EPC method.The space of the state variables of large-scale nonlinear ...The probabilistic solutions of the nonlinear stochastic dynamic(NSD)systems with polynomial type of nonlinearity are investigated with the subspace-EPC method.The space of the state variables of large-scale nonlinear stochastic dynamic system excited by white noises is separated into two subspaces.Both sides of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov(FPK)equation corresponding to the NSD system is then integrated over one of the subspaces.The FPK equation for the joint probability density function of the state variables in another subspace is formulated.Therefore,the FPK equation in low dimensions is obtained from the original FPK equation in high dimensions and it makes the problem of obtaining the probabilistic solutions of largescale NSD systems solvable with the exponential polynomial closure method.Examples about the NSD systems with polynomial type of nonlinearity are given to show the effectiveness of the subspace-EPC method in these cases.展开更多
基金Project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Grant No.BK20220917)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.12001213 and 12302035)。
文摘We present a large deviation theory that characterizes the exponential estimate for rare events in stochastic dynamical systems in the limit of weak noise.We aim to consider a next-to-leading-order approximation for more accurate calculation of the mean exit time by computing large deviation prefactors with the aid of machine learning.More specifically,we design a neural network framework to compute quasipotential,most probable paths and prefactors based on the orthogonal decomposition of a vector field.We corroborate the higher effectiveness and accuracy of our algorithm with two toy models.Numerical experiments demonstrate its powerful functionality in exploring the internal mechanism of rare events triggered by weak random fluctuations.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos 10572021 and 10372053）, and Fundamental Research Foundation of Beijing Institute of Technology, China （Grant No BIT-UBF-200507A4206）
文摘In this paper symmetries and conservation laws for stochastic dynamical systems are discussed in detail. Determining equations for infinitesimal approximate symmetries of Ito and Stratonovich dynamical systems are derived. It shows how to derive conserved quantities for stochastic dynamical systems by using their symmetries without recourse to Noether＇s theorem.
文摘This paper presents a linearized approach for the controller design of the shape of output probability density functions for general stochastic systems. A square root approximation to an output probability density function is realized by a set of B-spline functions. This generally produces a nonlinear state space model for the weights of the B-spline approximation. A linearized model is therefore obtained and embedded into a performance function that measures the tracking error of the output probability density function with respect to a given distribution. By using this performance function as a Lyapunov function for the closed loop system, a feedback control input has been obtained which guarantees closed loop stability and realizes perfect tracking. The algorithm described in this paper has been tested on a simulated example and desired results have been achieved.
基金supported by the NSFC(10971225, 11171125, 91130003 and 11028102)the NSFH (2011CDB289)+1 种基金HPDEP (20114503 and 2011B400)the Cheung Kong Scholars Program and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, HUST(2010ZD037)
文摘Nonlinear dynamical systems are sometimes under the influence of random fluctuations. It is desirable to examine possible bifurcations for stochastic dynamical systems when a parameter varies.A computational analysis is conducted to investigate bifurcations of a simple dynamical system under non-Gaussian a-stable Levy motions, by examining the changes in stationary probability density functions for the solution orbits of this stochastic system. The stationary probability density functions are obtained by solving a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation numerically. This allows numerically investigating phenomenological bifurcation, or P-bifurcation, for stochastic differential equations with non-Gaussian Levy noises.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China(No.11071165,No.11071199)Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi(No.2013GXNSFBA019008)Department of Research Project of Guangxi Provincial(No.2013YB102)
文摘The present paper is devoted to the existence of the random attractor for partly dissipative stochastic lattice dynamical systems with multiplicative white noises.
基金The first author thanks the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development for the Post-Doc scholarship(155814/2018-4).
文摘Streamflow forecasting in drylands is challenging.Data are scarce,catchments are highly humanmodified and streamflow exhibits strong nonlinear responses to rainfall.The goal of this study was to evaluate the monthly and seasonal streamflow forecasting in two large catchments in the Jaguaribe River Basin in the Brazilian semi-arid area.We adopted four different lead times:one month ahead for monthly scale and two,three and four months ahead for seasonal scale.The gaps of the historic streamflow series were filled up by using rainfall-runoff modelling.Then,time series model techniques were applied,i.e.,the locally constant,the locally averaged,the k-nearest-neighbours algorithm(k-NN)and the autoregressive(AR)model.The criterion of reliability of the validation results is that the forecast is more skillful than streamflow climatology.Our approach outperformed the streamflow climatology for all monthly streamflows.On average,the former was 25%better than the latter.The seasonal streamflow forecasting(SSF)was also reliable(on average,20%better than the climatology),failing slightly only for the high flow season of one catchment(6%worse than the climatology).Considering an uncertainty envelope(probabilistic forecasting),which was considerably narrower than the data standard deviation,the streamflow forecasting performance increased by about 50%at both scales.The forecast errors were mainly driven by the streamflow intra-seasonality at monthly scale,while they were by the forecast lead time at seasonal scale.The best-fit and worst-fit time series model were the k-NN approach and the AR model,respectively.The rainfall-runoff modelling outputs played an important role in improving streamflow forecasting for one streamgauge that showed 35%of data gaps.The developed data-driven approach is mathematical and computationally very simple,demands few resources to accomplish its operational implementation and is applicable to other dryland watersheds.Our findings may be part of drought forecasting systems and potentially help allocating water months in advance.Moreover,the developed strategy can serve as a baseline for more complex streamflow forecast systems.
文摘The probabilistic solutions to some nonlinear stochastic dynamic (NSD) systems with various polynomial types of nonlinearities in displacements are analyzed with the subspace-exponential polynomial closure (subspace-EPC) method. The space of the state variables of the large-scale nonlinear stochastic dynamic system excited by Gaussian white noises is separated into two subspaces. Both sides of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation corresponding to the NSD system are then integrated over one of the subspaces. The FPK equation for the joint probability density function of the state variables in the other subspace is formulated. Therefore, the FPK equations in low dimensions are obtained from the original FPK equation in high dimensions and the FPK equations in low dimensions are solvable with the exponential polynomial closure method. Examples about multi-degree-offreedom NSD systems with various polynomial types of nonlinearities in displacements are given to show the effectiveness of the subspace-EPC method in these cases.
基金supported by the Research Committee of the University of Macao(Grant No.MYRG138-FST11-EGK).
文摘The probabilistic solutions of the nonlinear stochastic dynamic(NSD)systems with polynomial type of nonlinearity are investigated with the subspace-EPC method.The space of the state variables of large-scale nonlinear stochastic dynamic system excited by white noises is separated into two subspaces.Both sides of the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov(FPK)equation corresponding to the NSD system is then integrated over one of the subspaces.The FPK equation for the joint probability density function of the state variables in another subspace is formulated.Therefore,the FPK equation in low dimensions is obtained from the original FPK equation in high dimensions and it makes the problem of obtaining the probabilistic solutions of largescale NSD systems solvable with the exponential polynomial closure method.Examples about the NSD systems with polynomial type of nonlinearity are given to show the effectiveness of the subspace-EPC method in these cases.
