In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha...In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.展开更多
The research constructed varying parameter state-space model and per- formed estimation on dynamic relationship between urban-rural migration and aggre- gate consumption expenditure on basis of dual economic structure...The research constructed varying parameter state-space model and per- formed estimation on dynamic relationship between urban-rural migration and aggre- gate consumption expenditure on basis of dual economic structure. The results showed that urban consumption growth made the most contribution to aggregate consumption growth, followed by urban-rural migration caused consumption. The role of rural consumption growth kept stable, but consumption caused by population growth was decreasing. Therefore, China consumption growth mainly relies on urban consumption expenditure and urban-rural migration.展开更多
The floating bridge bears the dead weight and live load with buoyancy,and has wide application prospect in deep-water transportation infrastructure.The structural analysis of floating bridge is challenging due to the ...The floating bridge bears the dead weight and live load with buoyancy,and has wide application prospect in deep-water transportation infrastructure.The structural analysis of floating bridge is challenging due to the complicated fluid-solid coupling effects of wind and wave.In this research,a novel time domain approach combining dynamic finite element method and state-space model(SSM)is established for the refined analysis of floating bridges.The dynamic coupled effects induced by wave excitation load,radiation load and buffeting load are carefully simulated.High-precision fitted SSMs for pontoons are established to enhance the calculation efficiency of hydrodynamic radiation forces in time domain.The dispersion relation is also introduced in the analysis model to appropriately consider the phase differences of wave loads on pontoons.The proposed approach is then employed to simulate the dynamic responses of a scaled floating bridge model which has been tested under real wind and wave loads in laboratory.The numerical results are found to agree well with the test data regarding the structural responses of floating bridge under the considered environmental conditions.The proposed time domain approach is considered to be accurate and effective in simulating the structural behaviors of floating bridge under typical environmental conditions.展开更多
The on-orbit parameter identification of a space structure can be used for the modification of a system dynamics model and controller coefficients. This study focuses on the estimation of a system state-space model fo...The on-orbit parameter identification of a space structure can be used for the modification of a system dynamics model and controller coefficients. This study focuses on the estimation of a system state-space model for a two-link space manipulator in the procedure of capturing an unknown object, and a recursive tracking approach based on the recursive predictor-based subspace identification(RPBSID) algorithm is proposed to identify the manipulator payload mass parameter. Structural rigid motion and elastic vibration are separated, and the dynamics model of the space manipulator is linearized at an arbitrary working point(i.e., a certain manipulator configuration).The state-space model is determined by using the RPBSID algorithm and matrix transformation. In addition, utilizing the identified system state-space model, the manipulator payload mass parameter is estimated by extracting the corresponding block matrix. In numerical simulations, the presented parameter identification method is implemented and compared with the classical algebraic algorithm and the recursive least squares method for different payload masses and manipulator configurations. Numerical results illustrate that the system state-space model and payload mass parameter of the two-link flexible space manipulator are effectively identified by the recursive subspace tracking method.展开更多
In this paper a recursive state-space model identification method is proposed for non-uniformly sampled systems in industrial applications. Two cases for measuring all states and only output(s) of such a system are co...In this paper a recursive state-space model identification method is proposed for non-uniformly sampled systems in industrial applications. Two cases for measuring all states and only output(s) of such a system are considered for identification. In the case of state measurement, an identification algorithm based on the singular value decomposition(SVD) is developed to estimate the model parameter matrices by using the least-squares fitting. In the case of output measurement only, another identification algorithm is given by combining the SVD approach with a hierarchical identification strategy. An example is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed identification method.展开更多
With the development of smart cities and smart technologies,parks,as functional units of the city,are facing smart transformation.The development of smart parks can help address challenges of technology integration wi...With the development of smart cities and smart technologies,parks,as functional units of the city,are facing smart transformation.The development of smart parks can help address challenges of technology integration within urban spaces and serve as testbeds for exploring smart city planning and governance models.Information models facilitate the effective integration of technology into space.Building Information Modeling(BIM)and City Information Modeling(CIM)have been widely used in urban construction.However,the existing information models have limitations in the application of the park,so it is necessary to develop an information model suitable for the park.This paper first traces the evolution of park smart transformation,reviews the global landscape of smart park development,and identifies key trends and persistent challenges.Addressing the particularities of parks,the concept of Park Information Modeling(PIM)is proposed.PIM leverages smart technologies such as artificial intelligence,digital twins,and collaborative sensing to help form a‘space-technology-system’smart structure,enabling systematic management of diverse park spaces,addressing the deficiency in park-level information models,and aiming to achieve scale articulation between BIM and CIM.Finally,through a detailed top-level design application case study of the Nanjing Smart Education Park in China,this paper illustrates the translation process of the PIM concept into practice,showcasing its potential to provide smart management tools for park managers and enhance services for park stakeholders,although further empirical validation is required.展开更多
As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods ge...As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods generally have problems such as insufficient 3D scene description capability and low dynamic update efficiency,which are difficult to meet the demand of real-time accurate management.For this reason,this paper proposes a vehicle twin modeling method for road tunnels.This approach starts from the actual management needs,and supports multi-level dynamic modeling from vehicle type,size to color by constructing a vehicle model library that can be flexibly invoked;at the same time,semantic constraint rules with geometric layout,behavioral attributes,and spatial relationships are designed to ensure that the virtual model matches with the real model with a high degree of similarity;ultimately,the prototype system is constructed and the case region is selected for the case study,and the dynamic vehicle status in the tunnel is realized by integrating real-time monitoring data with semantic constraints for precise virtual-real mapping.Finally,the prototype system is constructed and case experiments are conducted in selected case areas,which are combined with real-time monitoring data to realize dynamic updating and three-dimensional visualization of vehicle states in tunnels.The experiments show that the proposed method can run smoothly with an average rendering efficiency of 17.70 ms while guaranteeing the modeling accuracy(composite similarity of 0.867),which significantly improves the real-time and intuitive tunnel management.The research results provide reliable technical support for intelligent operation and emergency response of road tunnels,and offer new ideas for digital twin modeling of complex scenes.展开更多
Using a dynamic laser monitoring technique,the solubility of 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazole-5-one(NTO)was investigated in two different binary systems,namely hydroxylamine nitrate(HAN)-water and boric acid(HB)-water ranging f...Using a dynamic laser monitoring technique,the solubility of 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazole-5-one(NTO)was investigated in two different binary systems,namely hydroxylamine nitrate(HAN)-water and boric acid(HB)-water ranging from 278.15 K to 318.15 K.The solubility in each system was found to be positively correlated with temperature.Furthermore,solubility data were analyzed using four equations:the modified Apelblat equation,Van’t Hoff equation,λh equation and CNIBS/R-K equations,and they provided satisfactory results for both two systems.The average root-mean-square deviation(105RMSD)values for these models were less than 13.93.Calculations utilizing the Van’t Hoff equation and Gibbs equations facilitated the derivation of apparent thermodynamic properties of NTO dissolution in the two systems,including values for Gibbs free energy,enthalpy and entropy.The%ζ_(H)is larger than%ζ_(TS),and all the%ζ_(H)data are≥58.63%,indicating that the enthalpy make a greater contribution than entropy to theΔG_(soln)^(Θ).展开更多
BACKGROUND Emerging evidence implicates Candida albicans(C.albicans)in human oncogenesis.Notably,studies have supported its involvement in regulating outcomes in colorectal cancer(CRC).This study investigated the para...BACKGROUND Emerging evidence implicates Candida albicans(C.albicans)in human oncogenesis.Notably,studies have supported its involvement in regulating outcomes in colorectal cancer(CRC).This study investigated the paradoxical role of C.albicans in CRC,aiming to determine whether it promotes or suppresses tumor development,with a focus on the mechanistic basis linked to its metabolic profile.AIM To investigate the dual role of C.albicans in the development and progression of CRC through metabolite profiling and to establish a prognostic model that integrates the microbial and metabolic interactions in CRC,providing insights into potential therapeutic strategies and clinical outcomes.METHODSA prognostic model integrating C. albicans with CRC was developed, incorporating enrichment analysis, immuneinfiltration profiling, survival analysis, Mendelian randomization, single-cell sequencing, and spatial transcriptomics.The effects of the C. albicans metabolite mixture on CRC cells were subsequently validated in vitro. Theprimary metabolite composition was characterized using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.RESULTSA prognostic model based on five specific mRNA markers, EHD4, LIME1, GADD45B, TIMP1, and FDFT1, wasestablished. The C. albicans metabolite mixture significantly reduced CRC cell viability. Post-treatment analysisrevealed a significant decrease in gene expression in HT29 cells, while the expression levels of TIMP1, EHD4, andGADD45B were significantly elevated in HCT116 cells. Conversely, LIME1 expression and that of other CRC celllines showed reductions. In normal colonic epithelial cells (NCM460), GADD45B, TIMP1, and FDFT1 expressionlevels were significantly increased, while LIME1 and EHD4 levels were markedly reduced. Following metabolitetreatment, the invasive and migratory capabilities of NCM460, HT29, and HCT116 cells were reduced. Quantitativeanalysis of extracellular ATP post-treatment showed a significant elevation (P < 0.01). The C. albicans metabolitemixture had no effect on reactive oxygen species accumulation in CRC cells but led to a reduction in mitochondrialmembrane potential, increased intracellular lipid peroxidation, and induced apoptosis. Metabolomic profilingrevealed significant alterations, with 516 metabolites upregulated and 531 downregulated.CONCLUSIONThis study introduced a novel prognostic model for CRC risk assessment. The findings suggested that the C.albicans metabolite mixture exerted an inhibitory effect on CRC initiation.展开更多
Earth’s internal core and crustal magnetic fields,as measured by geomagnetic satellites like MSS-1(Macao Science Satellite-1)and Swarm,are vital for understanding core dynamics and tectonic evolution.To model these i...Earth’s internal core and crustal magnetic fields,as measured by geomagnetic satellites like MSS-1(Macao Science Satellite-1)and Swarm,are vital for understanding core dynamics and tectonic evolution.To model these internal magnetic fields accurately,data selection based on specific criteria is often employed to minimize the influence of rapidly changing current systems in the ionosphere and magnetosphere.However,the quantitative impact of various data selection criteria on internal geomagnetic field modeling is not well understood.This study aims to address this issue and provide a reference for constructing and applying geomagnetic field models.First,we collect the latest MSS-1 and Swarm satellite magnetic data and summarize widely used data selection criteria in geomagnetic field modeling.Second,we briefly describe the method to co-estimate the core,crustal,and large-scale magnetospheric fields using satellite magnetic data.Finally,we conduct a series of field modeling experiments with different data selection criteria to quantitatively estimate their influence.Our numerical experiments confirm that without selecting data from dark regions and geomagnetically quiet times,the resulting internal field differences at the Earth’s surface can range from tens to hundreds of nanotesla(nT).Additionally,we find that the uncertainties introduced into field models by different data selection criteria are significantly larger than the measurement accuracy of modern geomagnetic satellites.These uncertainties should be considered when utilizing constructed magnetic field models for scientific research and applications.展开更多
A 3D crustal model was constructed using a combination of cutting-edge techniques,which were integrated to provide a density model for Egypt and address the sporadic distribution of seismic data.These techniques inclu...A 3D crustal model was constructed using a combination of cutting-edge techniques,which were integrated to provide a density model for Egypt and address the sporadic distribution of seismic data.These techniques include obtaining gravity data from the Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer(GOCE),creating seismic profiles,analyzing the receiver functions of seismic data,obtaining information from boreholes,and providing geological interpretations.GOCE satellite gravity data were processed to construct a preliminary model based on nonlinear inversions of the data.A regional crustal thickness model was developed using receiver functions,seismic refraction profiles,and geological insights.The inverted model was validated using borehole data and compared with seismic estimates.The model exhibited strong consistency and revealed a correlation between crustal thickness,geology,and tectonics of Egypt.It showed that the shallowest depths of the Moho are located in the north along the Mediterranean Sea and in the eastern part along the Red Sea,reflecting an oceanic plate with a thin,high-density crust.The deepest Moho depths are located in the southwestern part of Egypt,Red Sea coastal mountains,and Sinai Peninsula.The obtained 3D model of crustal thickness provided finely detailed Moho depth estimates that aligned closely with geology and tectonic characteristics of Egypt,contributing valuable insights into the subsurface structure and tectonic processes of region.展开更多
This review explores the use of agent-based modeling(ABM)within the framework of study human emotion and cognition in the context of its ability to simulate complex social interactions,adaptive changes,and evolutionar...This review explores the use of agent-based modeling(ABM)within the framework of study human emotion and cognition in the context of its ability to simulate complex social interactions,adaptive changes,and evolutionary processes.By representing agents and their defined environments with probabilistic interactions,ABM allows the assessment of the effects of individual behavior at the micro level on the greater social phenomena at the macro level.The review looks into the applications of ABM in portraying some of the key components of emotions and cognition-empathy,cooperation,decision making,and emotional transmission-and analyzes the problems including scalability,empirical validation,and description of sensitive emotional states.The most important conclusion is that merging ABM with information neurobiological data and artificial intelligence(AI)techniques would allow for deepening the interactions within the system and enhancing its responsiveness to stimuli.This review highlights approaches that aim to exploit the ABM methodology more fully and integrates methods from biology,neuroscience,and engineering.This integration could contribute to our understanding of the human behavior evolution and adaptation within systems relevant to policymaking,healthcare,and education.展开更多
It is well known that coarse-grained super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloys(SMAs)exhibit localized rather than homogeneous martensite transformation(MT),which,however,can be strongly influenced by either internal size...It is well known that coarse-grained super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloys(SMAs)exhibit localized rather than homogeneous martensite transformation(MT),which,however,can be strongly influenced by either internal size(grain size,GS)or the external size(geometric size).The coupled effect of GS and geometric size on the functional properties has not been clearly understood yet.In this work,the super-elasticity,one-way,and stress-assisted two-way shape memory effects of the polycrystalline NiTi SMAs with different aspect ratios(length/width for the gauge section)and different GSs are investigated based on the phase field method.The coupled effect of the aspect ratio and GS on the functional properties is adequately revealed.The simulated results indicate that when the aspect ratio is lower than about 4:1,the stress biaxiality and stress heterogeneity in the gauge section of the sample become more and more obvious with decreasing the aspect ratio,which can significantly influence the microstructure evolution in the process involving external stress.Therefore,the corresponding functional property is strongly dependent on the aspect ratio.With decreasing the GS and the aspect ratio(to be lower than 4:1),both the aspect ratio and GS can affect the MT or martensite reorientation in each grain and the interaction among grains.Thus,due to the strong internal constraint(i.e.,the constraint of grain boundary)and the external constraint(i.e.,the constraint of geometric boundary),the capabilities of the functional properties of NiTi SMAs are gradually weakened and highly dependent on these two factors.展开更多
In order to enhance the control performance of piezo-positioning system,the influence of hysteresis characteristics and its compensation method are studied.Hammerstein model is used to represent the dynamic hysteresis...In order to enhance the control performance of piezo-positioning system,the influence of hysteresis characteristics and its compensation method are studied.Hammerstein model is used to represent the dynamic hysteresis nonlinear characteristics of piezo-positioning actuator.The static nonlinear part and dynamic linear part of the Hammerstein model are represented by models obtained through the Prandtl-Ishlinskii(PI)model and Hankel matrix system identification method,respectively.This model demonstrates good generalization capability for typical input frequencies below 200 Hz.A sliding mode inverse compensation tracking control strategy based on P-I inverse model and integral augmentation is proposed.Experimental results show that compared with PID inverse compensation control and sliding mode control without inverse compensation,the sliding mode inverse compensation control has a more ideal step response and no overshoot,moreover,the settling time is only 6.2 ms.In the frequency domain,the system closed-loop tracking bandwidth reaches 119.9 Hz,and the disturbance rejection bandwidth reaches 86.2 Hz.The proposed control strategy can effectively compensate the hysteresis nonlinearity,and improve the tracking accuracy and antidisturbance capability of piezo-positioning system.展开更多
In this paper,the small-signal modeling of the Indium Phosphide High Electron Mobility Transistor(InP HEMT)based on the Transformer neural network model is investigated.The AC S-parameters of the HEMT device are train...In this paper,the small-signal modeling of the Indium Phosphide High Electron Mobility Transistor(InP HEMT)based on the Transformer neural network model is investigated.The AC S-parameters of the HEMT device are trained and validated using the Transformer model.In the proposed model,the eight-layer transformer encoders are connected in series and the encoder layer of each Transformer consists of the multi-head attention layer and the feed-forward neural network layer.The experimental results show that the measured and modeled S-parameters of the HEMT device match well in the frequency range of 0.5-40 GHz,with the errors versus frequency less than 1%.Compared with other models,good accuracy can be achieved to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.展开更多
The Electro–Hydrostatic Actuator(EHA)is applied to drive the control surface in flightcontrol system of more electric aircraft.In EHA,the Oil-Immersed Motor Pump(OMP)serves asthe core as a power assembly.However,the ...The Electro–Hydrostatic Actuator(EHA)is applied to drive the control surface in flightcontrol system of more electric aircraft.In EHA,the Oil-Immersed Motor Pump(OMP)serves asthe core as a power assembly.However,the compact integration of the OMP presents challenges inefficiently dissipating internal heat,leading to a performance degradation of the EHA due to ele-vated temperatures.Therefore,accurately modeling and predicting the internal thermal dynamicsof the OMP hold considerable significance for monitoring the operational condition of the EHA.In view of this,a modeling method considering cumulative thermal coupling was hereby proposed.Based on the proposed method,the thermal models of the motor and the pump were established,taking into account heat accumulation and transfer.Taking the leakage oil as the heat couplingpoint between the motor and the pump,the dynamic thermal coupling model of the OMP wasdeveloped,with the thermal characteristics of the oil considered.Additionally,the comparativeexperiments were conducted to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model.The experimentalresults demonstrate that the proposed dynamic thermal coupling model accurately captured thethermal behavior of OMP,outperforming the static thermal parameter model.Overall,thisadvancement is crucial for effectively monitoring the health of EHA and ensuring flight safety.展开更多
Accurate satellite data assimilation under all-sky conditions requires enhanced parameterization of scattering properties for frozen hydrometeors in clouds.This study aims to develop a nonspherical scattering look-up ...Accurate satellite data assimilation under all-sky conditions requires enhanced parameterization of scattering properties for frozen hydrometeors in clouds.This study aims to develop a nonspherical scattering look-up table that contains the optical properties of five hydrometeor types—rain,cloud water,cloud ice,graupel,and snow—for the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System(ARMS)at frequencies below 220 GHz.The discrete dipole approximation(DDA)method is employed to compute the single-scattering properties of solid cloud particles,modeling these particles as aggregated roughened bullet rosettes.The bulk optical properties of the cloud layer are derived by integrating the singlescattering properties with a modified Gamma size distribution,specifically for distributions with 18 effective radii.The bulk phase function is then projected onto a series of generalized spherical functions,applying the delta-M method for truncation.The results indicate that simulations using the newly developed nonspherical scattering look-up table exhibit significant consistency with observations under deep convection conditions.In contrast,assuming spherical solid cloud particles leads to excessive scattering at mid-frequency channels and insufficient scattering at high-frequency channels.This improvement in radiative transfer simulation accuracy for cloudy conditions will better support the assimilation of allsky microwave observations into numerical weather prediction models.·Frozen cloud particles were modeled as aggregates of bullet rosettes and the optical properties at microwave range were computed by DDA.·A complete process and technical details for constructing a look-up table of ARMS are provided.·The ARMS simulations generally show agreement with observations of MWTS and MWHS under typhoon conditions using the new look-up table.展开更多
The undrained mechanical behavior of unsaturated completely weathered granite(CWG)is highly susceptible to alterations in the hydraulic environment,particularly under uniaxial loading conditions,due to the unique natu...The undrained mechanical behavior of unsaturated completely weathered granite(CWG)is highly susceptible to alterations in the hydraulic environment,particularly under uniaxial loading conditions,due to the unique nature of this soil type.In this study,a series of unconfined compression tests were carried out on unsaturated CWG soil in an underground engineering site,and the effects of varying the environmental variables on the main undrained mechanical properties were analyzed.Based on the experimental results,a novel constitutive model was then established using the damage mechanics theory and the undetermined coefficient method.The results demonstrate that the curves of remolded CWG specimens with different moisture contents and dry densities exhibited diverse characteristics,including brittleness,significant softening,and ductility.As a typical indicator,the unconfined compression strength of soil specimens initially increased with an increase in moisture content and then decreased.Meanwhile,an optimal moisture content of approximately 10.5%could be observed,while a critical moisture content value of 13.0%was identified,beyond which the strength of the specimen decreases sharply.Moreover,the deformation and fracture of CWG specimens were predominantly caused by shear failure,and the ultimate failure modes were primarily influenced by moisture content rather than dry density.Furthermore,by comparing several similar models and the experimental data,the proposed model could accurately replicate the undrained mechanical characteristics of unsaturated CWG soil,and quantitatively describe the key mechanical indexes.These findings offer a valuable reference point for understanding the underlying mechanisms,anticipating potential risks,and implementing effective control measures in similar underground engineering projects.展开更多
Unsteady aerodynamic characteristics at high angles of attack are of great importance to the design and development of advanced fighter aircraft, which are characterized by post-stall maneuverability with multiple Deg...Unsteady aerodynamic characteristics at high angles of attack are of great importance to the design and development of advanced fighter aircraft, which are characterized by post-stall maneuverability with multiple Degrees-of-Freedom(multi-DOF) and complex flow field structure.In this paper, a special kind of cable-driven parallel mechanism is firstly utilized as a new suspension method to conduct unsteady dynamic wind tunnel tests at high angles of attack, thereby providing experimental aerodynamic data. These tests include a wide range of multi-DOF coupled oscillatory motions with various amplitudes and frequencies. Then, for aerodynamic modeling and analysis, a novel data-driven Feature-Level Attention Recurrent neural network(FLAR) is proposed. This model incorporates a specially designed feature-level attention module that focuses on the state variables affecting the aerodynamic coefficients, thereby enhancing the physical interpretability of the aerodynamic model. Subsequently, spin maneuver simulations, using a mathematical model as the baseline, are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the FLAR. Finally, the results on wind tunnel data reveal that the FLAR accurately predicts aerodynamic coefficients, and observations through the visualization of attention scores identify the key state variables that affect the aerodynamic coefficients. It is concluded that the proposed FLAR enhances the interpretability of the aerodynamic model while achieving good prediction accuracy and generalization capability for multi-DOF coupling motion at high angles of attack.展开更多
Fluvial systems play a crucial role in coastal and riverine ecosystems, making it essential to understand their responses to sea level changes for preserving biodiversity and managing natural resources. The evolution ...Fluvial systems play a crucial role in coastal and riverine ecosystems, making it essential to understand their responses to sea level changes for preserving biodiversity and managing natural resources. The evolution of the modern Indus River Delta offers a rare opportunity to study the interplay between sea level fluctuations, tectonism, sediment supply, and the corresponding fluvial responses. This study employs the ‘SedSim' stratigraphic forward model to simulate the delta's evolution from 200 kyr to the next5 kyr, drawing on data from field observations, Landsat imagery, digital elevation models, and previous studies. The model consists of 205 layers, each representing a 1-kyr time step, covering the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Between 200 kyr and 130 kyr, during a lowstand period, sedimentation on the delta plain continued due to partial flow from the Indus River. During the last interglacial(130–60 kyr), rising sea levels led to peak sediment deposition, characteristic of a highstand phase. From 60 kyr to 18 kyr, sea levels dropped to their lowest during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), resulting in extensive erosion and minimal deposition on the delta plain. From 18 kyr to the present, rapidly rising sea levels, coupled with intensified monsoon activity, increased sedimentation rates and triggered avulsion and aggradation processes. The model accurately predicted depositional thickness across the delta plain, indicating a maximum of ca. 200 m at the shoreline platform, ca. 175 m in the northeastern delta, and ca. 100 m in the central delta. The study underscores the delta's vulnerability to future sea level rise, which–at a projected rate of 1 m/kyr–could significantly influence the densely populated, low-lying delta plain. These findings offer valuable insights into the geomorphic evolution of the Indus Delta and emphasize the socioeconomic implications of sea level change, underscoring the importance of proactive management and adaptation strategies.展开更多
基金the World Climate Research Programme(WCRP),Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR),and Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)for facilitating the coordination of African monsoon researchsupport from the Center for Earth System Modeling,Analysis,and Data at the Pennsylvania State Universitythe support of the Office of Science of the U.S.Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional&Global Model Analysis(RGMA)program area。
文摘In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.
基金Supported by Programs for Science and Technology Development of Hubei Rural Practical Talents Team Office(2013LK001)~~
文摘The research constructed varying parameter state-space model and per- formed estimation on dynamic relationship between urban-rural migration and aggre- gate consumption expenditure on basis of dual economic structure. The results showed that urban consumption growth made the most contribution to aggregate consumption growth, followed by urban-rural migration caused consumption. The role of rural consumption growth kept stable, but consumption caused by population growth was decreasing. Therefore, China consumption growth mainly relies on urban consumption expenditure and urban-rural migration.
基金financially supported by the Program of Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan,Shanghai,China(Grant No.20200741600).
文摘The floating bridge bears the dead weight and live load with buoyancy,and has wide application prospect in deep-water transportation infrastructure.The structural analysis of floating bridge is challenging due to the complicated fluid-solid coupling effects of wind and wave.In this research,a novel time domain approach combining dynamic finite element method and state-space model(SSM)is established for the refined analysis of floating bridges.The dynamic coupled effects induced by wave excitation load,radiation load and buffeting load are carefully simulated.High-precision fitted SSMs for pontoons are established to enhance the calculation efficiency of hydrodynamic radiation forces in time domain.The dispersion relation is also introduced in the analysis model to appropriately consider the phase differences of wave loads on pontoons.The proposed approach is then employed to simulate the dynamic responses of a scaled floating bridge model which has been tested under real wind and wave loads in laboratory.The numerical results are found to agree well with the test data regarding the structural responses of floating bridge under the considered environmental conditions.The proposed time domain approach is considered to be accurate and effective in simulating the structural behaviors of floating bridge under typical environmental conditions.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11572069 and 51775541)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2016M601354)
文摘The on-orbit parameter identification of a space structure can be used for the modification of a system dynamics model and controller coefficients. This study focuses on the estimation of a system state-space model for a two-link space manipulator in the procedure of capturing an unknown object, and a recursive tracking approach based on the recursive predictor-based subspace identification(RPBSID) algorithm is proposed to identify the manipulator payload mass parameter. Structural rigid motion and elastic vibration are separated, and the dynamics model of the space manipulator is linearized at an arbitrary working point(i.e., a certain manipulator configuration).The state-space model is determined by using the RPBSID algorithm and matrix transformation. In addition, utilizing the identified system state-space model, the manipulator payload mass parameter is estimated by extracting the corresponding block matrix. In numerical simulations, the presented parameter identification method is implemented and compared with the classical algebraic algorithm and the recursive least squares method for different payload masses and manipulator configurations. Numerical results illustrate that the system state-space model and payload mass parameter of the two-link flexible space manipulator are effectively identified by the recursive subspace tracking method.
基金Supported in part by the National Thousand Talents Program of Chinathe National Natural Science Foundation of China(61473054)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
文摘In this paper a recursive state-space model identification method is proposed for non-uniformly sampled systems in industrial applications. Two cases for measuring all states and only output(s) of such a system are considered for identification. In the case of state measurement, an identification algorithm based on the singular value decomposition(SVD) is developed to estimate the model parameter matrices by using the least-squares fitting. In the case of output measurement only, another identification algorithm is given by combining the SVD approach with a hierarchical identification strategy. An example is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed identification method.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42330510)。
文摘With the development of smart cities and smart technologies,parks,as functional units of the city,are facing smart transformation.The development of smart parks can help address challenges of technology integration within urban spaces and serve as testbeds for exploring smart city planning and governance models.Information models facilitate the effective integration of technology into space.Building Information Modeling(BIM)and City Information Modeling(CIM)have been widely used in urban construction.However,the existing information models have limitations in the application of the park,so it is necessary to develop an information model suitable for the park.This paper first traces the evolution of park smart transformation,reviews the global landscape of smart park development,and identifies key trends and persistent challenges.Addressing the particularities of parks,the concept of Park Information Modeling(PIM)is proposed.PIM leverages smart technologies such as artificial intelligence,digital twins,and collaborative sensing to help form a‘space-technology-system’smart structure,enabling systematic management of diverse park spaces,addressing the deficiency in park-level information models,and aiming to achieve scale articulation between BIM and CIM.Finally,through a detailed top-level design application case study of the Nanjing Smart Education Park in China,this paper illustrates the translation process of the PIM concept into practice,showcasing its potential to provide smart management tools for park managers and enhance services for park stakeholders,although further empirical validation is required.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42301473,42271424,42171397)Chinese Postdoctoral Innovation Talents Support Program(No.BX20230299)+2 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M742884)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province(Nos.24NSFSC2264,2025ZNSFSC0322)Key Research and Development Project of Sichuan Province(No.24ZDYF0633).
文摘As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods generally have problems such as insufficient 3D scene description capability and low dynamic update efficiency,which are difficult to meet the demand of real-time accurate management.For this reason,this paper proposes a vehicle twin modeling method for road tunnels.This approach starts from the actual management needs,and supports multi-level dynamic modeling from vehicle type,size to color by constructing a vehicle model library that can be flexibly invoked;at the same time,semantic constraint rules with geometric layout,behavioral attributes,and spatial relationships are designed to ensure that the virtual model matches with the real model with a high degree of similarity;ultimately,the prototype system is constructed and the case region is selected for the case study,and the dynamic vehicle status in the tunnel is realized by integrating real-time monitoring data with semantic constraints for precise virtual-real mapping.Finally,the prototype system is constructed and case experiments are conducted in selected case areas,which are combined with real-time monitoring data to realize dynamic updating and three-dimensional visualization of vehicle states in tunnels.The experiments show that the proposed method can run smoothly with an average rendering efficiency of 17.70 ms while guaranteeing the modeling accuracy(composite similarity of 0.867),which significantly improves the real-time and intuitive tunnel management.The research results provide reliable technical support for intelligent operation and emergency response of road tunnels,and offer new ideas for digital twin modeling of complex scenes.
文摘Using a dynamic laser monitoring technique,the solubility of 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazole-5-one(NTO)was investigated in two different binary systems,namely hydroxylamine nitrate(HAN)-water and boric acid(HB)-water ranging from 278.15 K to 318.15 K.The solubility in each system was found to be positively correlated with temperature.Furthermore,solubility data were analyzed using four equations:the modified Apelblat equation,Van’t Hoff equation,λh equation and CNIBS/R-K equations,and they provided satisfactory results for both two systems.The average root-mean-square deviation(105RMSD)values for these models were less than 13.93.Calculations utilizing the Van’t Hoff equation and Gibbs equations facilitated the derivation of apparent thermodynamic properties of NTO dissolution in the two systems,including values for Gibbs free energy,enthalpy and entropy.The%ζ_(H)is larger than%ζ_(TS),and all the%ζ_(H)data are≥58.63%,indicating that the enthalpy make a greater contribution than entropy to theΔG_(soln)^(Θ).
基金Supported by Gansu Province Joint Fund General Program,No.24JRRA878Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program Project,No.24JRRA1020+2 种基金Gansu Province Key Talent Program,No.2025RCXM006Teaching Research and Reform Program for Postgraduate Education at Gansu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine(GUSTCM),No.YBXM-202406Special Fund for Mentors of“Qihuang Talents”in the First-Level Discipline of Chinese Medicine,No.ZYXKBD-202415。
文摘BACKGROUND Emerging evidence implicates Candida albicans(C.albicans)in human oncogenesis.Notably,studies have supported its involvement in regulating outcomes in colorectal cancer(CRC).This study investigated the paradoxical role of C.albicans in CRC,aiming to determine whether it promotes or suppresses tumor development,with a focus on the mechanistic basis linked to its metabolic profile.AIM To investigate the dual role of C.albicans in the development and progression of CRC through metabolite profiling and to establish a prognostic model that integrates the microbial and metabolic interactions in CRC,providing insights into potential therapeutic strategies and clinical outcomes.METHODSA prognostic model integrating C. albicans with CRC was developed, incorporating enrichment analysis, immuneinfiltration profiling, survival analysis, Mendelian randomization, single-cell sequencing, and spatial transcriptomics.The effects of the C. albicans metabolite mixture on CRC cells were subsequently validated in vitro. Theprimary metabolite composition was characterized using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.RESULTSA prognostic model based on five specific mRNA markers, EHD4, LIME1, GADD45B, TIMP1, and FDFT1, wasestablished. The C. albicans metabolite mixture significantly reduced CRC cell viability. Post-treatment analysisrevealed a significant decrease in gene expression in HT29 cells, while the expression levels of TIMP1, EHD4, andGADD45B were significantly elevated in HCT116 cells. Conversely, LIME1 expression and that of other CRC celllines showed reductions. In normal colonic epithelial cells (NCM460), GADD45B, TIMP1, and FDFT1 expressionlevels were significantly increased, while LIME1 and EHD4 levels were markedly reduced. Following metabolitetreatment, the invasive and migratory capabilities of NCM460, HT29, and HCT116 cells were reduced. Quantitativeanalysis of extracellular ATP post-treatment showed a significant elevation (P < 0.01). The C. albicans metabolitemixture had no effect on reactive oxygen species accumulation in CRC cells but led to a reduction in mitochondrialmembrane potential, increased intracellular lipid peroxidation, and induced apoptosis. Metabolomic profilingrevealed significant alterations, with 516 metabolites upregulated and 531 downregulated.CONCLUSIONThis study introduced a novel prognostic model for CRC risk assessment. The findings suggested that the C.albicans metabolite mixture exerted an inhibitory effect on CRC initiation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42250101)the Macao Foundation。
文摘Earth’s internal core and crustal magnetic fields,as measured by geomagnetic satellites like MSS-1(Macao Science Satellite-1)and Swarm,are vital for understanding core dynamics and tectonic evolution.To model these internal magnetic fields accurately,data selection based on specific criteria is often employed to minimize the influence of rapidly changing current systems in the ionosphere and magnetosphere.However,the quantitative impact of various data selection criteria on internal geomagnetic field modeling is not well understood.This study aims to address this issue and provide a reference for constructing and applying geomagnetic field models.First,we collect the latest MSS-1 and Swarm satellite magnetic data and summarize widely used data selection criteria in geomagnetic field modeling.Second,we briefly describe the method to co-estimate the core,crustal,and large-scale magnetospheric fields using satellite magnetic data.Finally,we conduct a series of field modeling experiments with different data selection criteria to quantitatively estimate their influence.Our numerical experiments confirm that without selecting data from dark regions and geomagnetically quiet times,the resulting internal field differences at the Earth’s surface can range from tens to hundreds of nanotesla(nT).Additionally,we find that the uncertainties introduced into field models by different data selection criteria are significantly larger than the measurement accuracy of modern geomagnetic satellites.These uncertainties should be considered when utilizing constructed magnetic field models for scientific research and applications.
文摘A 3D crustal model was constructed using a combination of cutting-edge techniques,which were integrated to provide a density model for Egypt and address the sporadic distribution of seismic data.These techniques include obtaining gravity data from the Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer(GOCE),creating seismic profiles,analyzing the receiver functions of seismic data,obtaining information from boreholes,and providing geological interpretations.GOCE satellite gravity data were processed to construct a preliminary model based on nonlinear inversions of the data.A regional crustal thickness model was developed using receiver functions,seismic refraction profiles,and geological insights.The inverted model was validated using borehole data and compared with seismic estimates.The model exhibited strong consistency and revealed a correlation between crustal thickness,geology,and tectonics of Egypt.It showed that the shallowest depths of the Moho are located in the north along the Mediterranean Sea and in the eastern part along the Red Sea,reflecting an oceanic plate with a thin,high-density crust.The deepest Moho depths are located in the southwestern part of Egypt,Red Sea coastal mountains,and Sinai Peninsula.The obtained 3D model of crustal thickness provided finely detailed Moho depth estimates that aligned closely with geology and tectonic characteristics of Egypt,contributing valuable insights into the subsurface structure and tectonic processes of region.
文摘This review explores the use of agent-based modeling(ABM)within the framework of study human emotion and cognition in the context of its ability to simulate complex social interactions,adaptive changes,and evolutionary processes.By representing agents and their defined environments with probabilistic interactions,ABM allows the assessment of the effects of individual behavior at the micro level on the greater social phenomena at the macro level.The review looks into the applications of ABM in portraying some of the key components of emotions and cognition-empathy,cooperation,decision making,and emotional transmission-and analyzes the problems including scalability,empirical validation,and description of sensitive emotional states.The most important conclusion is that merging ABM with information neurobiological data and artificial intelligence(AI)techniques would allow for deepening the interactions within the system and enhancing its responsiveness to stimuli.This review highlights approaches that aim to exploit the ABM methodology more fully and integrates methods from biology,neuroscience,and engineering.This integration could contribute to our understanding of the human behavior evolution and adaptation within systems relevant to policymaking,healthcare,and education.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.12202294 and 12022208)the Project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No.2022M712243)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No.2023SCU12098).
文摘It is well known that coarse-grained super-elastic NiTi shape memory alloys(SMAs)exhibit localized rather than homogeneous martensite transformation(MT),which,however,can be strongly influenced by either internal size(grain size,GS)or the external size(geometric size).The coupled effect of GS and geometric size on the functional properties has not been clearly understood yet.In this work,the super-elasticity,one-way,and stress-assisted two-way shape memory effects of the polycrystalline NiTi SMAs with different aspect ratios(length/width for the gauge section)and different GSs are investigated based on the phase field method.The coupled effect of the aspect ratio and GS on the functional properties is adequately revealed.The simulated results indicate that when the aspect ratio is lower than about 4:1,the stress biaxiality and stress heterogeneity in the gauge section of the sample become more and more obvious with decreasing the aspect ratio,which can significantly influence the microstructure evolution in the process involving external stress.Therefore,the corresponding functional property is strongly dependent on the aspect ratio.With decreasing the GS and the aspect ratio(to be lower than 4:1),both the aspect ratio and GS can affect the MT or martensite reorientation in each grain and the interaction among grains.Thus,due to the strong internal constraint(i.e.,the constraint of grain boundary)and the external constraint(i.e.,the constraint of geometric boundary),the capabilities of the functional properties of NiTi SMAs are gradually weakened and highly dependent on these two factors.
文摘In order to enhance the control performance of piezo-positioning system,the influence of hysteresis characteristics and its compensation method are studied.Hammerstein model is used to represent the dynamic hysteresis nonlinear characteristics of piezo-positioning actuator.The static nonlinear part and dynamic linear part of the Hammerstein model are represented by models obtained through the Prandtl-Ishlinskii(PI)model and Hankel matrix system identification method,respectively.This model demonstrates good generalization capability for typical input frequencies below 200 Hz.A sliding mode inverse compensation tracking control strategy based on P-I inverse model and integral augmentation is proposed.Experimental results show that compared with PID inverse compensation control and sliding mode control without inverse compensation,the sliding mode inverse compensation control has a more ideal step response and no overshoot,moreover,the settling time is only 6.2 ms.In the frequency domain,the system closed-loop tracking bandwidth reaches 119.9 Hz,and the disturbance rejection bandwidth reaches 86.2 Hz.The proposed control strategy can effectively compensate the hysteresis nonlinearity,and improve the tracking accuracy and antidisturbance capability of piezo-positioning system.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62201293,62034003)the Open-Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Millimeter-Waves(K202313)the Jiangsu Province Youth Science and Technology Talent Support Project(JSTJ-2024-040)。
文摘In this paper,the small-signal modeling of the Indium Phosphide High Electron Mobility Transistor(InP HEMT)based on the Transformer neural network model is investigated.The AC S-parameters of the HEMT device are trained and validated using the Transformer model.In the proposed model,the eight-layer transformer encoders are connected in series and the encoder layer of each Transformer consists of the multi-head attention layer and the feed-forward neural network layer.The experimental results show that the measured and modeled S-parameters of the HEMT device match well in the frequency range of 0.5-40 GHz,with the errors versus frequency less than 1%.Compared with other models,good accuracy can be achieved to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB2011300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52275044,U2233212)。
文摘The Electro–Hydrostatic Actuator(EHA)is applied to drive the control surface in flightcontrol system of more electric aircraft.In EHA,the Oil-Immersed Motor Pump(OMP)serves asthe core as a power assembly.However,the compact integration of the OMP presents challenges inefficiently dissipating internal heat,leading to a performance degradation of the EHA due to ele-vated temperatures.Therefore,accurately modeling and predicting the internal thermal dynamicsof the OMP hold considerable significance for monitoring the operational condition of the EHA.In view of this,a modeling method considering cumulative thermal coupling was hereby proposed.Based on the proposed method,the thermal models of the motor and the pump were established,taking into account heat accumulation and transfer.Taking the leakage oil as the heat couplingpoint between the motor and the pump,the dynamic thermal coupling model of the OMP wasdeveloped,with the thermal characteristics of the oil considered.Additionally,the comparativeexperiments were conducted to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model.The experimentalresults demonstrate that the proposed dynamic thermal coupling model accurately captured thethermal behavior of OMP,outperforming the static thermal parameter model.Overall,thisadvancement is crucial for effectively monitoring the health of EHA and ensuring flight safety.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2021YFB3900400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2142212 and 42361074)。
文摘Accurate satellite data assimilation under all-sky conditions requires enhanced parameterization of scattering properties for frozen hydrometeors in clouds.This study aims to develop a nonspherical scattering look-up table that contains the optical properties of five hydrometeor types—rain,cloud water,cloud ice,graupel,and snow—for the Advanced Radiative Transfer Modeling System(ARMS)at frequencies below 220 GHz.The discrete dipole approximation(DDA)method is employed to compute the single-scattering properties of solid cloud particles,modeling these particles as aggregated roughened bullet rosettes.The bulk optical properties of the cloud layer are derived by integrating the singlescattering properties with a modified Gamma size distribution,specifically for distributions with 18 effective radii.The bulk phase function is then projected onto a series of generalized spherical functions,applying the delta-M method for truncation.The results indicate that simulations using the newly developed nonspherical scattering look-up table exhibit significant consistency with observations under deep convection conditions.In contrast,assuming spherical solid cloud particles leads to excessive scattering at mid-frequency channels and insufficient scattering at high-frequency channels.This improvement in radiative transfer simulation accuracy for cloudy conditions will better support the assimilation of allsky microwave observations into numerical weather prediction models.·Frozen cloud particles were modeled as aggregates of bullet rosettes and the optical properties at microwave range were computed by DDA.·A complete process and technical details for constructing a look-up table of ARMS are provided.·The ARMS simulations generally show agreement with observations of MWTS and MWHS under typhoon conditions using the new look-up table.
基金Project(42202318)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(252300421199)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province,ChinaProject(2024JJ6219)supported by the Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China。
文摘The undrained mechanical behavior of unsaturated completely weathered granite(CWG)is highly susceptible to alterations in the hydraulic environment,particularly under uniaxial loading conditions,due to the unique nature of this soil type.In this study,a series of unconfined compression tests were carried out on unsaturated CWG soil in an underground engineering site,and the effects of varying the environmental variables on the main undrained mechanical properties were analyzed.Based on the experimental results,a novel constitutive model was then established using the damage mechanics theory and the undetermined coefficient method.The results demonstrate that the curves of remolded CWG specimens with different moisture contents and dry densities exhibited diverse characteristics,including brittleness,significant softening,and ductility.As a typical indicator,the unconfined compression strength of soil specimens initially increased with an increase in moisture content and then decreased.Meanwhile,an optimal moisture content of approximately 10.5%could be observed,while a critical moisture content value of 13.0%was identified,beyond which the strength of the specimen decreases sharply.Moreover,the deformation and fracture of CWG specimens were predominantly caused by shear failure,and the ultimate failure modes were primarily influenced by moisture content rather than dry density.Furthermore,by comparing several similar models and the experimental data,the proposed model could accurately replicate the undrained mechanical characteristics of unsaturated CWG soil,and quantitatively describe the key mechanical indexes.These findings offer a valuable reference point for understanding the underlying mechanisms,anticipating potential risks,and implementing effective control measures in similar underground engineering projects.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12172315,12072304,11702232)the Fujian Provincial Natural Science Foundation,China(No.2021J01050)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(No.20220013068002).
文摘Unsteady aerodynamic characteristics at high angles of attack are of great importance to the design and development of advanced fighter aircraft, which are characterized by post-stall maneuverability with multiple Degrees-of-Freedom(multi-DOF) and complex flow field structure.In this paper, a special kind of cable-driven parallel mechanism is firstly utilized as a new suspension method to conduct unsteady dynamic wind tunnel tests at high angles of attack, thereby providing experimental aerodynamic data. These tests include a wide range of multi-DOF coupled oscillatory motions with various amplitudes and frequencies. Then, for aerodynamic modeling and analysis, a novel data-driven Feature-Level Attention Recurrent neural network(FLAR) is proposed. This model incorporates a specially designed feature-level attention module that focuses on the state variables affecting the aerodynamic coefficients, thereby enhancing the physical interpretability of the aerodynamic model. Subsequently, spin maneuver simulations, using a mathematical model as the baseline, are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the FLAR. Finally, the results on wind tunnel data reveal that the FLAR accurately predicts aerodynamic coefficients, and observations through the visualization of attention scores identify the key state variables that affect the aerodynamic coefficients. It is concluded that the proposed FLAR enhances the interpretability of the aerodynamic model while achieving good prediction accuracy and generalization capability for multi-DOF coupling motion at high angles of attack.
基金the Science and Technology Innovation Project of the Laoshan Laboratory (No. LSKJ202203402)the Major Research Project on the Tethys Geodynamic System from the National Science Foundation of China (No. 92055204)。
文摘Fluvial systems play a crucial role in coastal and riverine ecosystems, making it essential to understand their responses to sea level changes for preserving biodiversity and managing natural resources. The evolution of the modern Indus River Delta offers a rare opportunity to study the interplay between sea level fluctuations, tectonism, sediment supply, and the corresponding fluvial responses. This study employs the ‘SedSim' stratigraphic forward model to simulate the delta's evolution from 200 kyr to the next5 kyr, drawing on data from field observations, Landsat imagery, digital elevation models, and previous studies. The model consists of 205 layers, each representing a 1-kyr time step, covering the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Between 200 kyr and 130 kyr, during a lowstand period, sedimentation on the delta plain continued due to partial flow from the Indus River. During the last interglacial(130–60 kyr), rising sea levels led to peak sediment deposition, characteristic of a highstand phase. From 60 kyr to 18 kyr, sea levels dropped to their lowest during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), resulting in extensive erosion and minimal deposition on the delta plain. From 18 kyr to the present, rapidly rising sea levels, coupled with intensified monsoon activity, increased sedimentation rates and triggered avulsion and aggradation processes. The model accurately predicted depositional thickness across the delta plain, indicating a maximum of ca. 200 m at the shoreline platform, ca. 175 m in the northeastern delta, and ca. 100 m in the central delta. The study underscores the delta's vulnerability to future sea level rise, which–at a projected rate of 1 m/kyr–could significantly influence the densely populated, low-lying delta plain. These findings offer valuable insights into the geomorphic evolution of the Indus Delta and emphasize the socioeconomic implications of sea level change, underscoring the importance of proactive management and adaptation strategies.
