Rainfall infiltration poses a disastrous threat to the slope stability in many regions around the world.This paper proposes an extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)-based stochastic analysis framework to estimate the rai...Rainfall infiltration poses a disastrous threat to the slope stability in many regions around the world.This paper proposes an extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)-based stochastic analysis framework to estimate the rainfall-induced slope failure probability.An unsaturated slope under rainfall infiltration in spatially varying soils is selected in this study to investigate the influences of the spatial variability of soil properties(including effective cohesion c',effective friction angleφ'and saturated hydraulic conductivity k_(s)),as well as rainfall intensity and rainfall pattern on the slope failure probability.Results show that the proposed framework in this study is capable of computing the failure probability with accuracy and high efficiency.The spatial variability of k_(s)cannot be overlooked in the reliability analysis.Otherwise,the rainfall-induced slope failure probability will be underestimated.It is found that the rain-fall intensity and rainfall pattern have significant effect on the probability of failure.Moreover,the failure probabilities under various rainfall intensities and patterns can be easily obtained with the aid of the proposed framework,which can provide timely guidance for the landslide emergency management departments.展开更多
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2019YFC1509600)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52008058 and 52108299)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No,2021M693740).
文摘Rainfall infiltration poses a disastrous threat to the slope stability in many regions around the world.This paper proposes an extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)-based stochastic analysis framework to estimate the rainfall-induced slope failure probability.An unsaturated slope under rainfall infiltration in spatially varying soils is selected in this study to investigate the influences of the spatial variability of soil properties(including effective cohesion c',effective friction angleφ'and saturated hydraulic conductivity k_(s)),as well as rainfall intensity and rainfall pattern on the slope failure probability.Results show that the proposed framework in this study is capable of computing the failure probability with accuracy and high efficiency.The spatial variability of k_(s)cannot be overlooked in the reliability analysis.Otherwise,the rainfall-induced slope failure probability will be underestimated.It is found that the rain-fall intensity and rainfall pattern have significant effect on the probability of failure.Moreover,the failure probabilities under various rainfall intensities and patterns can be easily obtained with the aid of the proposed framework,which can provide timely guidance for the landslide emergency management departments.
