Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.Method Spatial and temporal variations in TB ...Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.Method Spatial and temporal variations in TB incidence were mapped using heat maps and hierarchical clustering.Socioenvironmental influencing factors were evaluated using a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive(ST-CAR)model.Results Annual incidence of TB in Guangdong decreased from 91.85/100,000 in 2010 to 53.06/100,000in 2019.Spatial hotspots were found in northeastern Guangdong,particularly in Heyuan,Shanwei,and Shantou,while Shenzhen,Dongguan,and Foshan had the lowest rates in the Pearl River Delta.The STCAR model showed that the TB risk was lower with higher per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)[Relative Risk(RR),0.91;95%Confidence Interval(CI):0.86–0.98],more the ratio of licensed physicians and physician(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90-0.98),and higher per capita public expenditure(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90–0.97),with a marginal effect of population density(RR,0.86;95%CI:0.86–1.00).Conclusion The incidence of TB in Guangdong varies spatially and temporally.Areas with poor economic conditions and insufficient healthcare resources are at an increased risk of TB infection.Strategies focusing on equitable health resource distribution and economic development are the key to TB control.展开更多
In recent years,tourism has emerged as a significant driver of economic development in China’s border regions.The study utilizes various methods,such as the super-efficiency SBM model,spatial variability,cold and hot...In recent years,tourism has emerged as a significant driver of economic development in China’s border regions.The study utilizes various methods,such as the super-efficiency SBM model,spatial variability,cold and hot spot analysis,and Geo-Detector approach,to measure and describe the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of land border tourism efficiency and its influencing factors.The findings reveal that the Dai autonomous prefecture of Xishuangbanna has the highest border tourism efficiency of 1.6207,while Ngari prefecture has the lowest tourism efficiency with a value of only 0.0365 at the prefecture level during the period 2010-2019.The southwest and northwest regions of China are high-and low-level agglomeration areas respectively,indicating varying levels of border tourism development.Additionally,the study identifies an upward trend in China’s border tourism efficiency from 2010-2019.The southwest region emerges as a hotspot and the most active region,while the northwest and northeast regions are considered cold spots with ample room for improvement.Furthermore,the density of transportation facilities,national vulnerability,cultural proximity,the number of border ports,and market opportunity are crucial factors influencing the spatial and temporal pattern of border tourism efficiency in China.展开更多
Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingda...Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.展开更多
Drought, which is one of the most frequently occurring severe hazards with long time scales and cov- ering wide geographical areas, is a natural phenomenon resulting in significant economic losses in agriculture and i...Drought, which is one of the most frequently occurring severe hazards with long time scales and cov- ering wide geographical areas, is a natural phenomenon resulting in significant economic losses in agriculture and industry. Drought is caused by an imbalance between the inputs of and the demand for water which is insufficient to meet the demands of human activities and the eco-environment. As a major arid and semi-arid area and an important agricultural region in Northwest China, North Xinjiang （NX） shows great vulnerability to drought. In this paper, the characteristics of inter-annual and seasonal drought were analyzed in terms of drought occurrence and drought coverage, by using the composite index of meteorological drought and the data of daily precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine duration from 38 meteorological stations during the period 1961-2012. Trend analysis, wavelet analysis and empirical orthogonal function were also applied to investigate change trend, period and regional characteristics, respectively. In NX, annual and seasonal drought occurrence and drought coverage all showed a decreasing trend that was most significant in winter （with rates of-0.26 month/10a and -15.46%, respectively）, and drought occurrence in spring and summer were more frequent than that in autumn and winter. Spatially, drought was severe in eastern regions but mild in western regions of NX. Annual and seasonal drought occurrence at 38 meteorological stations displayed decreasing trends and were most significant in ＂Shi- hezi-Urumqi-Changji＂, which can help to alleviate severe drought hazards for local agricultural production and improve human livelihood. NX can be approximately classified into three sub-regions （severe drought region, moder- ate drought region and mild drought region）, which were calculated from annual drought frequencies. The cross wavelet transform suggested that SOl （Southern Oscillation Index）, AOI （Arctic Oscillation Index）, AAOI （Antarctic Oscillation Index）, PAOI （Pacific/North American Oscillation Index） and NAOI （North Atlantic Oscillation Index） have significant correlation with the variation of drought occurrence in NX. To prevent and mitigate the occurrence of drought disasters in NX, agricultural and government managers should pay more attention to those drought events that occur in spring and summer.展开更多
The dockless bike-sharing system has rapidly expanded worldwide and has been widely used as an intermodal transport to connect with public transportation.However,higher flexibility may cause an imbalance between suppl...The dockless bike-sharing system has rapidly expanded worldwide and has been widely used as an intermodal transport to connect with public transportation.However,higher flexibility may cause an imbalance between supply and demand during daily operation,especially around the metro stations.A stable and efficient rebalancing model requires spatio-temporal usage patterns as fundamental inputs.Therefore,understanding the spatio-temporal patterns and correlates is important for optimizing and rescheduling bike-sharing systems.This study proposed a dynamic time warping distance-based two-dimensional clustering method to quantify spatio-temporal patterns of dockless shared bikes in Wuhan and further applied the multiclass explainable boosting machine to explore the main related factors of these patterns.The results found six patterns on weekdays and four patterns on weekends.Three patterns show the imbalance of arrival and departure flow in the morning and evening peak hours,while these phenomena become less intensive on weekends.Road density,living service facility density and residential density are the top influencing factors on both weekdays and weekends,which means that the comprehensive impact of built-up environment attraction,facility suitability and riding demand leads to the different usage patterns.The nonlinear influence universally exists,and the probability of a certain pattern varies in different value ranges of variables.When the densities of living facilities and roads are moderate and the relationship between job and housing is relatively balanced,it can effectively promote the balanced usage of dockless shared bikes while maintaining high riding flow.The spatio-temporal patterns can identify the associated problems such as imbalance or lack of users,which could be mitigated by corresponding solutions.The relative importance and nonlinear effects help planners prioritize strategies and identify effective ranges on different patterns to promote the usage and efficiency of the bike-sharing system.展开更多
Hengduan Mountains offer land space for a variety of ecological services. However, the sustainable development and management of land space has been challenged by increased human activities in recent years. This paper...Hengduan Mountains offer land space for a variety of ecological services. However, the sustainable development and management of land space has been challenged by increased human activities in recent years. This paper performs the spatial pattern analysis of the quantitative and structural changes of various landscapes at different altitudes, and uses the land use data in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 to reveal how various land patterns have changed. The results show that, within the production-living-ecological space schema, the ecological space dominates Hengduan Mountains, while the production and living space was mainly distributed in south region. During 1990-2015, the production-living-ecological spatial changes had been gradually accelerated and the regional differences had become more prominent. The agricultural production space had continuously decreased by 1132.31 km^2, and the industrial and mining production space had rapidly increased by 281.4 km^2 during 1990-2015. The living space had steadily increased, and the ecological space had increased with fluctuations. The land space pattern in Hengduan Mountains was greatly restricted by the terrain, such as altitude and slope. The implementations of China Western Development Strategy and the Returning Farmland to Forest Program had favorably promoted the changes of land spatial pattern in Hengduan Mountains.展开更多
Improving comprehensive agricultural productivity is an important measure to realize agricultural modernization.Based on the data from Jilin Statistical Yearbook,this study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteri...Improving comprehensive agricultural productivity is an important measure to realize agricultural modernization.Based on the data from Jilin Statistical Yearbook,this study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of comprehensive agricultural productivity discrepancy in the main agricultural production areas of Jilin Province,China.The comprehensive agricultural productivity of 25 county-level administrative units were evaluated by a comprehensive index system based on five aspects which included 20 indicators from 2004 to 2017.The pattern of the discrepancy was analyzed by the spatial differentiation indices and spatial convergence theory.The results were as follows:1) the overall comprehensive agricultural productivity was in a ’W-type’ rising trend;2) the discrepancy was in’inverted W-type’ trend;3) the spatial distribution characteristics were mainly discrete plaque and ’inverted V-type’;4) the formation of differences was forced by a combination of internal and external driving forces.Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of rising agricultural productivity and the level of economic and social developments in different counties in Jilin Province.展开更多
Nowadays, wildlife road mortality is acknowledged as a main source of threatening long-term survival of wildlife. This paper as the first to analysis wild life vehicle collisions in Iran, aims to reconstruct and inter...Nowadays, wildlife road mortality is acknowledged as a main source of threatening long-term survival of wildlife. This paper as the first to analysis wild life vehicle collisions in Iran, aims to reconstruct and interpret the spatio-temporal patterns of WVCs on Asiaei highway in Golestan National Park (GNP). With the collaboration of environmental protection department of GNP, we identified about 1900 WVC Records involving 34 different species of mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians between 2004 and 2013. Mammals were involved in more than 50% of overall WVCs, among which wild boar (Sus scrofa), Golden Jackal (Canis aureus), Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes), hedgehog (Erinaceus concolor), stone marten (Martes foina) and porcupine (Hystrix indica) were involved in more than 90% of mammals’ mortalities;So, we focused on analyzing spatio-temporal pattern of vehicle collisions of these six mammal species. During the study period, these species have undergone 95% increase in road mortalities, averagely. Detailed temporal analyses exhibited an increasing trend of road mortalities from spring to summer and then a reducing one to late winter. It was shown that a large number of collisions occurred in holiday periods when recreational trips considerably increased the traffic volume of Asiaei highway. Preliminary inspection of spatial patterns using Kernel density analysis revealed six collision hotspots, mostly located in the road bends with densely forested land cover on both sides;the promenades along the road seemed to play a significant role too. Scale dependency analyses of collision patterns, demonstrated clustering pattern at micro scales less than 10 km, randomness at meso scales 10 - 20 km and both regularity and clustering at macro scales more than 20 km. This paper suggests that road mortality of common species in GNP is a momentous issue, which needs to be considered by relevant governmental and public organizations. We also emphasize that the analyses of spatial and temporal patterns of WVCs are fundamentals to plan for mitigate wildlife road mortality.展开更多
Border area is not only an important gateway for inland opening-up,but also an important part of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and optimizing national urban spatial pattern in China.Due to...Border area is not only an important gateway for inland opening-up,but also an important part of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and optimizing national urban spatial pattern in China.Due to the location,natural resources endowment,and traffic accessibility,the urbanization speed is relatively slow in border areas.Therefore,it is a special area that needs to pay close attention to,especially under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative and China's regional coordinated development program.Based on the county-level data from 2000 to 2015,this paper tries to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of urbanization in 134 border counties,and applies geographical detector method to study the driving forces of urbanization in border areas.Conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2015,urbanization rate in border areas has been lower than the national average,and the gap has been widening.Some border counties in southern Xinjiang,Tibet,northeast of Inner Mongolia,and Yunnan,are even facing the problem of population loss.(2)In the same period,urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border is low,while their urbanization rate grows relatively faster comparing with other border counties;urbanization rate in Tibet border is the lowest and grows relatively slowly;urbanization rate in the northeastern and northern border is slightly higher,but it grows slowly or even stagnates.(3)Transportation and industry are the important driving forces of urbanization in border areas,while the driving forces of market is relatively weak.And there are obvious mutual reinforcements among the driving forces,while the effort and explanatory power of resource force increases obviously after interaction.(4)Urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border areas grows relatively fast,with industrial force and transportation force,market force and administrative force as the main driving forces respectively.Tibet border area has the lowest urbanization rate and growth rate,as the driving force of urbanization with strong contribution has not yet formed in Tibet.In the northeastern and northern border areas,the contribution of transportation force to urbanization is greater than other forces,and its interaction with market and industry has obvious effects.展开更多
The relationship between China’s urbanization and economic development(RCUED) is an important concern nationwide. As important actors in regional strategy and policy, county-level regions have played an increasingly ...The relationship between China’s urbanization and economic development(RCUED) is an important concern nationwide. As important actors in regional strategy and policy, county-level regions have played an increasingly significant role in the development of China’s social economy. However, the existing research on the RCUED lacks the fine depiction of the county-level administrative units.Using 2000 and 2010 census data and the statistical analysis method, we uncovered the evolution characteristics of China’s urbanization and economic development and conducted a quantitative identification for the RCUED with improved methods using the quadrant map approach. In addition, we investigated the spatial correlation effect of the RCUED using the spatial autocorrelation analysis method. The results were as follows: 1) In general, a high degree of matching exists between China’s urbanization and economic development at the county level at the significance level of 0.01. The correlation coefficients between China’s urbanization and economic development in2000 and 2010 were 0.608 and 0.603, respectively. 2) A significant regional difference exists in the RCUED at the county level. Based on a comparative analysis of 2276 county units in China in the two years, we found that county units can be categorized as under-urbanized, basic coordination and over-urbanized in various areas. No situation was observed where urbanization seriously lagged behind the economic development level, so the levels of urbanization and economic development appear to be basically coordinated,and the coordination state may be gradually optimized over time. 3) Over time, the spatial dependency of the RCUED has weakened and the spatial heterogeneity has increased. Northeast China has always been an area characterized by over-urbanization. The number of county units classified as under-urbanized has begun to decline in eastern coastal urban agglomeration areas, while counties rich in resources have transformed from having point-shaped over-urbanization to plane-shaped under-urbanization along the northern border,and the number of over-urbanized county units has increased in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. 4)’Lag-lag’ type and ’advance-advance’ type accounted for 68% of all counties in China, and these counties were shown to have obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.展开更多
Based on TM image data and other survey materials, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of land use change in the Bohai Rim during 1985-2005. The findings of this study are summarized as follows： （1） Lan...Based on TM image data and other survey materials, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of land use change in the Bohai Rim during 1985-2005. The findings of this study are summarized as follows： （1） Land use pattern changed dramatically during 1985-2005. Industrial and residential land in urban and rural areas increased by 643,946 hm2 of which urban construction land had the largest and fastest increase of 294,953 hm2 at an annual rate of 3.72%. （2） The outward migration of rural population did not prevent the expansion of residential land in rural areas by 184,869 hm2. This increase reveals that construction of rural residences makes seriously wasteful and inefficient use of land. （3） Arable land, woodland and grassland decreased at a rate of -0.02%, -0.12% and -1.32% annually, while unused land shrank by 157,444 hm^2 at an annual rate of -1.69%. （4） The change of land use types showed marked fluctuations over the two stages （1985-1995 and 1995-2005） In particular, arable land, woodland and unused land experienced an inversed trend of change. （5） There was a significant interaction between arable land and woodland, industrial construction land in urban and rural areas showed a net trend of increase during the earlier period, but only adjustment to its internal structure during the second period. The loss of arable land to the construction of factories, mines and residences took place mainly in the fringe areas of large and medium-sized cities, along the routes of major roads, as well as in the economically developed coastal areas in the east. Such changes are closely related to the spatial differentiation of the level of urbanization and industrialization in the region.展开更多
In this study,we employed a number of geospatial techniques to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and changes of environmental attitudes and place attachment values in the Gauteng province of South Africa.The data we...In this study,we employed a number of geospatial techniques to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and changes of environmental attitudes and place attachment values in the Gauteng province of South Africa.The data were obtained from the Gauteng City Region Observatory’s Quality of Life Survey collected at three separate points in time,namely 2013,2015,and 2017.Results indicated that wards(smallest administrative and analysis units)located on the urban periphery of Gauteng,which are generally less affluent,largely held more negative environmental attitudes and place attachment values during the three time periods.In contrast,centrally located wards,which are generally more affluent,expressed more positive environmental attitudes but less place attachment values,especially in 2017.The findings of this research not only highlight the complex spatio-temporal distribution of environmental attitudes and place attachment values throughout Gauteng but also empha-size the need for spatially targeted state interventions for future environmental planning within the province.展开更多
Spatio-temporal patterns of drought from 1961 to 2013 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region of China were analyzed using the Palmer Drought Severity index(PDSI) based on 21 meteorological stations. Overall, chang...Spatio-temporal patterns of drought from 1961 to 2013 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region of China were analyzed using the Palmer Drought Severity index(PDSI) based on 21 meteorological stations. Overall, changes in the mean-state of drought detected in recent decades were due to decreases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF) method was used to decompose drought into spatio-temporal patterns, and the first two EOF modes were analyzed. According to the first leading EOF mode(48.5%), the temporal variability(Principal Components, PC1) was highly positively correlated with annual series of PDSI(r=+0.99). The variance decomposition method was further applied to explain the inter-decadal temporal and spatial variations of drought relative to the total variation. We find that 90% of total variance was explained by time variance, and both total and time variance dramatically decreased from 1982 to 2013. The total variance was consistent with extreme climate events at the inter-decadal scale(r=0.71, p<0.01). Comparing the influence of climate change on the annual drought in two different long-term periods characterized by dramatic global warming(P1: 1961–1989 and P2: 1990–2013), we find that temperature sensitivity in the P2 was three times more than that in the P1.展开更多
Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of farmland landscape patterns in a traditional agricultural region can provide scientific support for decision-making on sustainable rural land use and rural vitalization deve...Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of farmland landscape patterns in a traditional agricultural region can provide scientific support for decision-making on sustainable rural land use and rural vitalization development. This study established a comprehensive evaluation index for farmland fragmentation with multiple aspects(dominance, integrity, aggregation, regularity, and connectivity) at the county scale. The goal was to identify the evolution of farmland fragmentation in the traditional agricultural region of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 2000–2015 and investigate underlying drivers using panel data of 359 counties.Results showed an accelerating but fluctuating fragmentation pattern of the farmland landscape. The indexes of dominance, integrity, and aggregation of farmland decreased most sharply, while the index of connectivity increased. Furthermore, the evolution of the farmland fragmentation pattern showed significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity, which is similar to the trajectory of urbanization and land use transition. Farmland fragmentation in municipal districts also emerged earlier and was more severe than in county-level cities and counties.Factors influenced by advancing urbanization include the proportion of artificial land, population density, and proportion of primary industry;these factors drove the evolution of farmland fragmentation. In contrast, the increase in income of rural residents and production efficiency of farmland were the key factors contributing to the improvement in farmland connectivity.展开更多
Ecotones have received great attention due to its critical function in energy flux, species harbor, global carbon sequestration, and land-atmosphere interaction. This study investigated land use pattern and spatial he...Ecotones have received great attention due to its critical function in energy flux, species harbor, global carbon sequestration, and land-atmosphere interaction. This study investigated land use pattern and spatial heterogeneity of the ecotones among agricultural land, forest land, and grassland of the southeastern Da Hinggan Mountains in the northeastern China. The change of these delineated ecotones under different slopes and aridity conditions was analyzed by two landscape indices, edge density(ED) and core area percentage of landscape(CPL), to explore the inter-linkage between spatial structure of ecotones and socioeconomic development and land management. Specifically, the ecotones such as agriculture-forest(AF) ecotone, forest-grassland(FG) ecotone, and agriculture-forestgrassland(AFG) ecotone moved from the arid southeast to the humid northwest. The flat area with small slope is more edge-fragmented than the steep area since the ED decreases as the slope increases. The AF ecotone mostly found in the humid region is moving to more humid areas while the agriculture-grassland(AG) ecotone mostly found in the dry region is moving towards the drier region.展开更多
Proper understanding of global distribution of infectious diseases is an important part of disease management and policy making. However, data are subject to complexities caused by heterogeneities across host classes ...Proper understanding of global distribution of infectious diseases is an important part of disease management and policy making. However, data are subject to complexities caused by heterogeneities across host classes and space-time epidemic processes. This paper seeks to suggest or propose Bayesian spatio-temporal model for modeling and mapping tuberculosis relative risks in space and time as well identify risks factors associated with the tuberculosis and counties in Kenya with high tuberculosis relative risks. In this paper, we used spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical models to study the pattern of tuberculosis relative risks in Kenya. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method via WinBUGS and R packages were used for simulations and estimation of the parameter estimates. The best fitting model is selected using the Deviance Information Criterion proposed by Spiegelhalter and colleagues. Among the spatio-temporal models used, the Knorr-Held model with space-time interaction type III and IV fit the data well but type IV appears better than type III. Variation in tuberculosis risk is observed among Kenya counties and clustering among counties with high tuberculosis relative risks. The prevalence of HIV is identified as the determinant of TB. We found clustering and heterogeneity of TB risk among high rate counties and the overall tuberculosis risk is slightly decreasing from 2002-2009. We proposed that the Knorr-Held model with interaction type IV should be used to model and map Kenyan tuberculosis relative risks. Interaction of TB relative risk in space and time increases among rural counties that share boundaries with urban counties with high tuberculosis risk. This is due to the ability of models to borrow strength from neighboring counties, such that nearby counties have similar risk. Although the approaches are less than ideal, we hope that our study provide a useful stepping stone in the development of spatial and spatio-temporal methodology for the statistical analysis of risk from tuberculosis in Kenya.展开更多
Cropland abandonment is common and widely distributed in hilly and mountainous areas.Clarifying the current situation and development of cropland abandonment can provide reference for the rational and classified manag...Cropland abandonment is common and widely distributed in hilly and mountainous areas.Clarifying the current situation and development of cropland abandonment can provide reference for the rational and classified management of cropland abandonment in hilly and mountainous areas.Taking Jiangxi Province as the study area,and using the Google Earth Engine and Landsat data,the scale and years of abandoned cropland from 2002 to 2020 were calculated by using the random forest classifier and rules for identifying cropland abandonment.The spatio-temporal pattern of cropland abandonment at the county level was analyzed.The results indicated that the overall accuracy of land use classification was over 90%.The cropland abandonment rate ranged from 3%to 5.5%from 2002 to 2020,while the cropland abandonment rate was highest in 2013 and showed a downward trend after 2017.Among the years,the area of first-time abandoned cropland was the largest in 2005.The distribution of the cropland abandonment rate was low in the middle and north,but high in the surrounding area and the south.A notable positive spatial correlation was observed in the cropland abandonment rate,with a gradual intensification of spatial clustering.The LISA cluster map revealed a significant north-south disparity,exhibiting an incremental trend over time in the characteristics of the“High-High”cluster in the Southeastern Mountainous Area and the“Low-Low”cluster in the Poyang Lake Hilly Plain in Jiangxi.The results of this study can provide data for extracting spatial information and analyzing the driving factors of cropland abandonment in hilly and mountainous areas,and they can also provide a basis for the development of policies for the utilization and classification management of abandoned cropland.展开更多
Sloping farmland,particularly in mountainous and hilly areas,constitutes a significant component of regional farmland resources.An investigation into the spatio-temporal pattern of sloping farmland and its influencing...Sloping farmland,particularly in mountainous and hilly areas,constitutes a significant component of regional farmland resources.An investigation into the spatio-temporal pattern of sloping farmland and its influencing factors in China is imperative for the efficient utilization of farmland and the optimization of land space.We used land use transfer matrix,geographically weighted regression model and geographical detector to conduct this study.Results showed that sloping farmland in China firstly decreased and then increased from 2000 to 2020.The proportion of sloping farmland decreased radially outward from Sichuan basin to the surrounding areas.Change rates of sloping farmland with different slopes varied and the slope with 6°-15°underwent the fastest changes.The influencing factors of farmland at various slope degrees were different.For sloping farmland below 15°,land use intensity and elevation had the greatest contribution.For sloping farmland between 15°and 25°,elevation,land use intensity,and population density were the main influencing factors.Sloping farmland above 25°was mostly affected by natural factors.This study can provide scientific basis for rational development and protection of sloping farmland.展开更多
Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LM...Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LMRB's terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA)and its spatio-temporal dynamics during 2002–2020.Considering the effects of natural factors and human activities,the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)were separated.Results showed that:(1)LMRB's TWSA decreased by 0.3158 cm/a.(2)TWSA showed a gradual increase in distribution from southwest of MRB to middle LMRB and from northeast of LRB to middle LMRB.TWSA positively changed in Myanmar while slightly changed in Laos and China.It negatively changed in Vietnam,Thailand and Cambodia.(3)TWSA components decreased in a descending order of soil moisture,groundwater and precipitation.(4)Natural factors had a substantial and spatial differentiated influence on TWSA over the LMRB.(5)Climate variability contributed 79%of TWSC in the LMRB while human activities contributed 21%with an increasing impact after 2008.The TWSC of upstream basin countries was found to be controlled by climate variability while Vietnam and Cambodia's TWSC has been controlled by human activities since 2012.展开更多
The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to u...The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to understand complex mobility patterns.Deep learning techniques,such as graph neural networks(GNNs),are popular for their ability to capture spatio-temporal dependencies.However,these models often become overly complex due to the large number of hyper-parameters involved.In this study,we introduce Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Networks(DMST-GNODE),a framework based on ordinary differential equations(ODEs)that autonomously discovers effective spatial-temporal graph neural network(STGNN)architectures for traffic prediction tasks.The comparative analysis of DMST-GNODE and baseline models indicates that DMST-GNODE model demonstrates superior performance across multiple datasets,consistently achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values,alongside the highest accuracy.On the BKK(Bangkok)dataset,it outperformed other models with an RMSE of 3.3165 and an accuracy of 0.9367 for a 20-min interval,maintaining this trend across 40 and 60 min.Similarly,on the PeMS08 dataset,DMST-GNODE achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 19.4863 and an accuracy of 0.9377 at 20 min,demonstrating its effectiveness over longer periods.The Los_Loop dataset results further emphasise this model’s advantage,with an RMSE of 3.3422 and an accuracy of 0.7643 at 20 min,consistently maintaining superiority across all time intervals.These numerical highlights indicate that DMST-GNODE not only outperforms baseline models but also achieves higher accuracy and lower errors across different time intervals and datasets.展开更多
基金supported by the Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Tuberculosis(No.2020B1111170014)。
文摘Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.Method Spatial and temporal variations in TB incidence were mapped using heat maps and hierarchical clustering.Socioenvironmental influencing factors were evaluated using a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive(ST-CAR)model.Results Annual incidence of TB in Guangdong decreased from 91.85/100,000 in 2010 to 53.06/100,000in 2019.Spatial hotspots were found in northeastern Guangdong,particularly in Heyuan,Shanwei,and Shantou,while Shenzhen,Dongguan,and Foshan had the lowest rates in the Pearl River Delta.The STCAR model showed that the TB risk was lower with higher per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)[Relative Risk(RR),0.91;95%Confidence Interval(CI):0.86–0.98],more the ratio of licensed physicians and physician(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90-0.98),and higher per capita public expenditure(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90–0.97),with a marginal effect of population density(RR,0.86;95%CI:0.86–1.00).Conclusion The incidence of TB in Guangdong varies spatially and temporally.Areas with poor economic conditions and insufficient healthcare resources are at an increased risk of TB infection.Strategies focusing on equitable health resource distribution and economic development are the key to TB control.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42201311Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,No.ZR2022QD132+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,No.202013012Rural Revitalization Project of Ocean University of China,No.ZX2024007。
文摘In recent years,tourism has emerged as a significant driver of economic development in China’s border regions.The study utilizes various methods,such as the super-efficiency SBM model,spatial variability,cold and hot spot analysis,and Geo-Detector approach,to measure and describe the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of land border tourism efficiency and its influencing factors.The findings reveal that the Dai autonomous prefecture of Xishuangbanna has the highest border tourism efficiency of 1.6207,while Ngari prefecture has the lowest tourism efficiency with a value of only 0.0365 at the prefecture level during the period 2010-2019.The southwest and northwest regions of China are high-and low-level agglomeration areas respectively,indicating varying levels of border tourism development.Additionally,the study identifies an upward trend in China’s border tourism efficiency from 2010-2019.The southwest region emerges as a hotspot and the most active region,while the northwest and northeast regions are considered cold spots with ample room for improvement.Furthermore,the density of transportation facilities,national vulnerability,cultural proximity,the number of border ports,and market opportunity are crucial factors influencing the spatial and temporal pattern of border tourism efficiency in China.
基金supported by the Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program,the Research and Development of Standards and Standardization of Nomenclature in the Field of Public Health-Research Project on the Development of the Disciplines of Public Health and Preventive Medicine[242402]the Shandong Medical and Health Science and Technology Development Plan[202112050731].
文摘Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.
基金supported by International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China (2010DFA92720)the Scientific Innovation Research Project for Graduate Students of XinjiangSoil Science Key Discipline Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
文摘Drought, which is one of the most frequently occurring severe hazards with long time scales and cov- ering wide geographical areas, is a natural phenomenon resulting in significant economic losses in agriculture and industry. Drought is caused by an imbalance between the inputs of and the demand for water which is insufficient to meet the demands of human activities and the eco-environment. As a major arid and semi-arid area and an important agricultural region in Northwest China, North Xinjiang （NX） shows great vulnerability to drought. In this paper, the characteristics of inter-annual and seasonal drought were analyzed in terms of drought occurrence and drought coverage, by using the composite index of meteorological drought and the data of daily precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine duration from 38 meteorological stations during the period 1961-2012. Trend analysis, wavelet analysis and empirical orthogonal function were also applied to investigate change trend, period and regional characteristics, respectively. In NX, annual and seasonal drought occurrence and drought coverage all showed a decreasing trend that was most significant in winter （with rates of-0.26 month/10a and -15.46%, respectively）, and drought occurrence in spring and summer were more frequent than that in autumn and winter. Spatially, drought was severe in eastern regions but mild in western regions of NX. Annual and seasonal drought occurrence at 38 meteorological stations displayed decreasing trends and were most significant in ＂Shi- hezi-Urumqi-Changji＂, which can help to alleviate severe drought hazards for local agricultural production and improve human livelihood. NX can be approximately classified into three sub-regions （severe drought region, moder- ate drought region and mild drought region）, which were calculated from annual drought frequencies. The cross wavelet transform suggested that SOl （Southern Oscillation Index）, AOI （Arctic Oscillation Index）, AAOI （Antarctic Oscillation Index）, PAOI （Pacific/North American Oscillation Index） and NAOI （North Atlantic Oscillation Index） have significant correlation with the variation of drought occurrence in NX. To prevent and mitigate the occurrence of drought disasters in NX, agricultural and government managers should pay more attention to those drought events that occur in spring and summer.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2017YFB0503601]。
文摘The dockless bike-sharing system has rapidly expanded worldwide and has been widely used as an intermodal transport to connect with public transportation.However,higher flexibility may cause an imbalance between supply and demand during daily operation,especially around the metro stations.A stable and efficient rebalancing model requires spatio-temporal usage patterns as fundamental inputs.Therefore,understanding the spatio-temporal patterns and correlates is important for optimizing and rescheduling bike-sharing systems.This study proposed a dynamic time warping distance-based two-dimensional clustering method to quantify spatio-temporal patterns of dockless shared bikes in Wuhan and further applied the multiclass explainable boosting machine to explore the main related factors of these patterns.The results found six patterns on weekdays and four patterns on weekends.Three patterns show the imbalance of arrival and departure flow in the morning and evening peak hours,while these phenomena become less intensive on weekends.Road density,living service facility density and residential density are the top influencing factors on both weekdays and weekends,which means that the comprehensive impact of built-up environment attraction,facility suitability and riding demand leads to the different usage patterns.The nonlinear influence universally exists,and the probability of a certain pattern varies in different value ranges of variables.When the densities of living facilities and roads are moderate and the relationship between job and housing is relatively balanced,it can effectively promote the balanced usage of dockless shared bikes while maintaining high riding flow.The spatio-temporal patterns can identify the associated problems such as imbalance or lack of users,which could be mitigated by corresponding solutions.The relative importance and nonlinear effects help planners prioritize strategies and identify effective ranges on different patterns to promote the usage and efficiency of the bike-sharing system.
基金Major State Basic Research Development Program of China,No.2015CB452706
文摘Hengduan Mountains offer land space for a variety of ecological services. However, the sustainable development and management of land space has been challenged by increased human activities in recent years. This paper performs the spatial pattern analysis of the quantitative and structural changes of various landscapes at different altitudes, and uses the land use data in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 to reveal how various land patterns have changed. The results show that, within the production-living-ecological space schema, the ecological space dominates Hengduan Mountains, while the production and living space was mainly distributed in south region. During 1990-2015, the production-living-ecological spatial changes had been gradually accelerated and the regional differences had become more prominent. The agricultural production space had continuously decreased by 1132.31 km^2, and the industrial and mining production space had rapidly increased by 281.4 km^2 during 1990-2015. The living space had steadily increased, and the ecological space had increased with fluctuations. The land space pattern in Hengduan Mountains was greatly restricted by the terrain, such as altitude and slope. The implementations of China Western Development Strategy and the Returning Farmland to Forest Program had favorably promoted the changes of land spatial pattern in Hengduan Mountains.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41771138)。
文摘Improving comprehensive agricultural productivity is an important measure to realize agricultural modernization.Based on the data from Jilin Statistical Yearbook,this study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of comprehensive agricultural productivity discrepancy in the main agricultural production areas of Jilin Province,China.The comprehensive agricultural productivity of 25 county-level administrative units were evaluated by a comprehensive index system based on five aspects which included 20 indicators from 2004 to 2017.The pattern of the discrepancy was analyzed by the spatial differentiation indices and spatial convergence theory.The results were as follows:1) the overall comprehensive agricultural productivity was in a ’W-type’ rising trend;2) the discrepancy was in’inverted W-type’ trend;3) the spatial distribution characteristics were mainly discrete plaque and ’inverted V-type’;4) the formation of differences was forced by a combination of internal and external driving forces.Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of rising agricultural productivity and the level of economic and social developments in different counties in Jilin Province.
文摘Nowadays, wildlife road mortality is acknowledged as a main source of threatening long-term survival of wildlife. This paper as the first to analysis wild life vehicle collisions in Iran, aims to reconstruct and interpret the spatio-temporal patterns of WVCs on Asiaei highway in Golestan National Park (GNP). With the collaboration of environmental protection department of GNP, we identified about 1900 WVC Records involving 34 different species of mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians between 2004 and 2013. Mammals were involved in more than 50% of overall WVCs, among which wild boar (Sus scrofa), Golden Jackal (Canis aureus), Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes), hedgehog (Erinaceus concolor), stone marten (Martes foina) and porcupine (Hystrix indica) were involved in more than 90% of mammals’ mortalities;So, we focused on analyzing spatio-temporal pattern of vehicle collisions of these six mammal species. During the study period, these species have undergone 95% increase in road mortalities, averagely. Detailed temporal analyses exhibited an increasing trend of road mortalities from spring to summer and then a reducing one to late winter. It was shown that a large number of collisions occurred in holiday periods when recreational trips considerably increased the traffic volume of Asiaei highway. Preliminary inspection of spatial patterns using Kernel density analysis revealed six collision hotspots, mostly located in the road bends with densely forested land cover on both sides;the promenades along the road seemed to play a significant role too. Scale dependency analyses of collision patterns, demonstrated clustering pattern at micro scales less than 10 km, randomness at meso scales 10 - 20 km and both regularity and clustering at macro scales more than 20 km. This paper suggests that road mortality of common species in GNP is a momentous issue, which needs to be considered by relevant governmental and public organizations. We also emphasize that the analyses of spatial and temporal patterns of WVCs are fundamentals to plan for mitigate wildlife road mortality.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41871120Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA20010102。
文摘Border area is not only an important gateway for inland opening-up,but also an important part of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society and optimizing national urban spatial pattern in China.Due to the location,natural resources endowment,and traffic accessibility,the urbanization speed is relatively slow in border areas.Therefore,it is a special area that needs to pay close attention to,especially under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative and China's regional coordinated development program.Based on the county-level data from 2000 to 2015,this paper tries to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of urbanization in 134 border counties,and applies geographical detector method to study the driving forces of urbanization in border areas.Conclusions are as follows:(1)From 2000 to 2015,urbanization rate in border areas has been lower than the national average,and the gap has been widening.Some border counties in southern Xinjiang,Tibet,northeast of Inner Mongolia,and Yunnan,are even facing the problem of population loss.(2)In the same period,urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border is low,while their urbanization rate grows relatively faster comparing with other border counties;urbanization rate in Tibet border is the lowest and grows relatively slowly;urbanization rate in the northeastern and northern border is slightly higher,but it grows slowly or even stagnates.(3)Transportation and industry are the important driving forces of urbanization in border areas,while the driving forces of market is relatively weak.And there are obvious mutual reinforcements among the driving forces,while the effort and explanatory power of resource force increases obviously after interaction.(4)Urbanization rate in the northwestern and southwestern border areas grows relatively fast,with industrial force and transportation force,market force and administrative force as the main driving forces respectively.Tibet border area has the lowest urbanization rate and growth rate,as the driving force of urbanization with strong contribution has not yet formed in Tibet.In the northeastern and northern border areas,the contribution of transportation force to urbanization is greater than other forces,and its interaction with market and industry has obvious effects.
基金Under the auspices of the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Pan-Third Pole Environment Study for a Green Silk Road(Pan-TPE)(No.XDA20040400)
文摘The relationship between China’s urbanization and economic development(RCUED) is an important concern nationwide. As important actors in regional strategy and policy, county-level regions have played an increasingly significant role in the development of China’s social economy. However, the existing research on the RCUED lacks the fine depiction of the county-level administrative units.Using 2000 and 2010 census data and the statistical analysis method, we uncovered the evolution characteristics of China’s urbanization and economic development and conducted a quantitative identification for the RCUED with improved methods using the quadrant map approach. In addition, we investigated the spatial correlation effect of the RCUED using the spatial autocorrelation analysis method. The results were as follows: 1) In general, a high degree of matching exists between China’s urbanization and economic development at the county level at the significance level of 0.01. The correlation coefficients between China’s urbanization and economic development in2000 and 2010 were 0.608 and 0.603, respectively. 2) A significant regional difference exists in the RCUED at the county level. Based on a comparative analysis of 2276 county units in China in the two years, we found that county units can be categorized as under-urbanized, basic coordination and over-urbanized in various areas. No situation was observed where urbanization seriously lagged behind the economic development level, so the levels of urbanization and economic development appear to be basically coordinated,and the coordination state may be gradually optimized over time. 3) Over time, the spatial dependency of the RCUED has weakened and the spatial heterogeneity has increased. Northeast China has always been an area characterized by over-urbanization. The number of county units classified as under-urbanized has begun to decline in eastern coastal urban agglomeration areas, while counties rich in resources have transformed from having point-shaped over-urbanization to plane-shaped under-urbanization along the northern border,and the number of over-urbanized county units has increased in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. 4)’Lag-lag’ type and ’advance-advance’ type accounted for 68% of all counties in China, and these counties were shown to have obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.
基金Non-profit Research Foundation for Agriculture, No.200803036National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40635029
文摘Based on TM image data and other survey materials, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of land use change in the Bohai Rim during 1985-2005. The findings of this study are summarized as follows： （1） Land use pattern changed dramatically during 1985-2005. Industrial and residential land in urban and rural areas increased by 643,946 hm2 of which urban construction land had the largest and fastest increase of 294,953 hm2 at an annual rate of 3.72%. （2） The outward migration of rural population did not prevent the expansion of residential land in rural areas by 184,869 hm2. This increase reveals that construction of rural residences makes seriously wasteful and inefficient use of land. （3） Arable land, woodland and grassland decreased at a rate of -0.02%, -0.12% and -1.32% annually, while unused land shrank by 157,444 hm^2 at an annual rate of -1.69%. （4） The change of land use types showed marked fluctuations over the two stages （1985-1995 and 1995-2005） In particular, arable land, woodland and unused land experienced an inversed trend of change. （5） There was a significant interaction between arable land and woodland, industrial construction land in urban and rural areas showed a net trend of increase during the earlier period, but only adjustment to its internal structure during the second period. The loss of arable land to the construction of factories, mines and residences took place mainly in the fringe areas of large and medium-sized cities, along the routes of major roads, as well as in the economically developed coastal areas in the east. Such changes are closely related to the spatial differentiation of the level of urbanization and industrialization in the region.
文摘In this study,we employed a number of geospatial techniques to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and changes of environmental attitudes and place attachment values in the Gauteng province of South Africa.The data were obtained from the Gauteng City Region Observatory’s Quality of Life Survey collected at three separate points in time,namely 2013,2015,and 2017.Results indicated that wards(smallest administrative and analysis units)located on the urban periphery of Gauteng,which are generally less affluent,largely held more negative environmental attitudes and place attachment values during the three time periods.In contrast,centrally located wards,which are generally more affluent,expressed more positive environmental attitudes but less place attachment values,especially in 2017.The findings of this research not only highlight the complex spatio-temporal distribution of environmental attitudes and place attachment values throughout Gauteng but also empha-size the need for spatially targeted state interventions for future environmental planning within the province.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2016YFC0401401,No.2016YFA0602402Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.ZDRW-ZS-2017-3-1+1 种基金The Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Pioneer Hundred Talents ProgramNational Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41601035
文摘Spatio-temporal patterns of drought from 1961 to 2013 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region of China were analyzed using the Palmer Drought Severity index(PDSI) based on 21 meteorological stations. Overall, changes in the mean-state of drought detected in recent decades were due to decreases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions(EOF) method was used to decompose drought into spatio-temporal patterns, and the first two EOF modes were analyzed. According to the first leading EOF mode(48.5%), the temporal variability(Principal Components, PC1) was highly positively correlated with annual series of PDSI(r=+0.99). The variance decomposition method was further applied to explain the inter-decadal temporal and spatial variations of drought relative to the total variation. We find that 90% of total variance was explained by time variance, and both total and time variance dramatically decreased from 1982 to 2013. The total variance was consistent with extreme climate events at the inter-decadal scale(r=0.71, p<0.01). Comparing the influence of climate change on the annual drought in two different long-term periods characterized by dramatic global warming(P1: 1961–1989 and P2: 1990–2013), we find that temperature sensitivity in the P2 was three times more than that in the P1.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41731286, No.41971216Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,No.2018GXNSFDA281032+1 种基金Program of Science and Technology Plan of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,No.AD19110158The Bagui Scholars Program of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region。
文摘Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of farmland landscape patterns in a traditional agricultural region can provide scientific support for decision-making on sustainable rural land use and rural vitalization development. This study established a comprehensive evaluation index for farmland fragmentation with multiple aspects(dominance, integrity, aggregation, regularity, and connectivity) at the county scale. The goal was to identify the evolution of farmland fragmentation in the traditional agricultural region of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 2000–2015 and investigate underlying drivers using panel data of 359 counties.Results showed an accelerating but fluctuating fragmentation pattern of the farmland landscape. The indexes of dominance, integrity, and aggregation of farmland decreased most sharply, while the index of connectivity increased. Furthermore, the evolution of the farmland fragmentation pattern showed significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity, which is similar to the trajectory of urbanization and land use transition. Farmland fragmentation in municipal districts also emerged earlier and was more severe than in county-level cities and counties.Factors influenced by advancing urbanization include the proportion of artificial land, population density, and proportion of primary industry;these factors drove the evolution of farmland fragmentation. In contrast, the increase in income of rural residents and production efficiency of farmland were the key factors contributing to the improvement in farmland connectivity.
基金Under the auspices of'Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues'of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA05090310)
文摘Ecotones have received great attention due to its critical function in energy flux, species harbor, global carbon sequestration, and land-atmosphere interaction. This study investigated land use pattern and spatial heterogeneity of the ecotones among agricultural land, forest land, and grassland of the southeastern Da Hinggan Mountains in the northeastern China. The change of these delineated ecotones under different slopes and aridity conditions was analyzed by two landscape indices, edge density(ED) and core area percentage of landscape(CPL), to explore the inter-linkage between spatial structure of ecotones and socioeconomic development and land management. Specifically, the ecotones such as agriculture-forest(AF) ecotone, forest-grassland(FG) ecotone, and agriculture-forestgrassland(AFG) ecotone moved from the arid southeast to the humid northwest. The flat area with small slope is more edge-fragmented than the steep area since the ED decreases as the slope increases. The AF ecotone mostly found in the humid region is moving to more humid areas while the agriculture-grassland(AG) ecotone mostly found in the dry region is moving towards the drier region.
文摘Proper understanding of global distribution of infectious diseases is an important part of disease management and policy making. However, data are subject to complexities caused by heterogeneities across host classes and space-time epidemic processes. This paper seeks to suggest or propose Bayesian spatio-temporal model for modeling and mapping tuberculosis relative risks in space and time as well identify risks factors associated with the tuberculosis and counties in Kenya with high tuberculosis relative risks. In this paper, we used spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical models to study the pattern of tuberculosis relative risks in Kenya. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method via WinBUGS and R packages were used for simulations and estimation of the parameter estimates. The best fitting model is selected using the Deviance Information Criterion proposed by Spiegelhalter and colleagues. Among the spatio-temporal models used, the Knorr-Held model with space-time interaction type III and IV fit the data well but type IV appears better than type III. Variation in tuberculosis risk is observed among Kenya counties and clustering among counties with high tuberculosis relative risks. The prevalence of HIV is identified as the determinant of TB. We found clustering and heterogeneity of TB risk among high rate counties and the overall tuberculosis risk is slightly decreasing from 2002-2009. We proposed that the Knorr-Held model with interaction type IV should be used to model and map Kenyan tuberculosis relative risks. Interaction of TB relative risk in space and time increases among rural counties that share boundaries with urban counties with high tuberculosis risk. This is due to the ability of models to borrow strength from neighboring counties, such that nearby counties have similar risk. Although the approaches are less than ideal, we hope that our study provide a useful stepping stone in the development of spatial and spatio-temporal methodology for the statistical analysis of risk from tuberculosis in Kenya.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(42371285)。
文摘Cropland abandonment is common and widely distributed in hilly and mountainous areas.Clarifying the current situation and development of cropland abandonment can provide reference for the rational and classified management of cropland abandonment in hilly and mountainous areas.Taking Jiangxi Province as the study area,and using the Google Earth Engine and Landsat data,the scale and years of abandoned cropland from 2002 to 2020 were calculated by using the random forest classifier and rules for identifying cropland abandonment.The spatio-temporal pattern of cropland abandonment at the county level was analyzed.The results indicated that the overall accuracy of land use classification was over 90%.The cropland abandonment rate ranged from 3%to 5.5%from 2002 to 2020,while the cropland abandonment rate was highest in 2013 and showed a downward trend after 2017.Among the years,the area of first-time abandoned cropland was the largest in 2005.The distribution of the cropland abandonment rate was low in the middle and north,but high in the surrounding area and the south.A notable positive spatial correlation was observed in the cropland abandonment rate,with a gradual intensification of spatial clustering.The LISA cluster map revealed a significant north-south disparity,exhibiting an incremental trend over time in the characteristics of the“High-High”cluster in the Southeastern Mountainous Area and the“Low-Low”cluster in the Poyang Lake Hilly Plain in Jiangxi.The results of this study can provide data for extracting spatial information and analyzing the driving factors of cropland abandonment in hilly and mountainous areas,and they can also provide a basis for the development of policies for the utilization and classification management of abandoned cropland.
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of Natural Resources Monitoring and Supervision in Southern Hilly Region,Ministry of Natural Resources(NRMSSHR2023Y02)Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plateau Geographic Processes and Environmental Changes,Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University(PGPEC2304)China Scholarship Council。
文摘Sloping farmland,particularly in mountainous and hilly areas,constitutes a significant component of regional farmland resources.An investigation into the spatio-temporal pattern of sloping farmland and its influencing factors in China is imperative for the efficient utilization of farmland and the optimization of land space.We used land use transfer matrix,geographically weighted regression model and geographical detector to conduct this study.Results showed that sloping farmland in China firstly decreased and then increased from 2000 to 2020.The proportion of sloping farmland decreased radially outward from Sichuan basin to the surrounding areas.Change rates of sloping farmland with different slopes varied and the slope with 6°-15°underwent the fastest changes.The influencing factors of farmland at various slope degrees were different.For sloping farmland below 15°,land use intensity and elevation had the greatest contribution.For sloping farmland between 15°and 25°,elevation,land use intensity,and population density were the main influencing factors.Sloping farmland above 25°was mostly affected by natural factors.This study can provide scientific basis for rational development and protection of sloping farmland.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42161006Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects No.202201AT070094,No.202301BF070001-004+1 种基金Special Project for High-level Talents of Yunnan Province for Young Top Talents,No.C6213001159European Research Council(ERC)Starting-Grant STORIES,No.101040939。
文摘Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LMRB's terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA)and its spatio-temporal dynamics during 2002–2020.Considering the effects of natural factors and human activities,the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)were separated.Results showed that:(1)LMRB's TWSA decreased by 0.3158 cm/a.(2)TWSA showed a gradual increase in distribution from southwest of MRB to middle LMRB and from northeast of LRB to middle LMRB.TWSA positively changed in Myanmar while slightly changed in Laos and China.It negatively changed in Vietnam,Thailand and Cambodia.(3)TWSA components decreased in a descending order of soil moisture,groundwater and precipitation.(4)Natural factors had a substantial and spatial differentiated influence on TWSA over the LMRB.(5)Climate variability contributed 79%of TWSC in the LMRB while human activities contributed 21%with an increasing impact after 2008.The TWSC of upstream basin countries was found to be controlled by climate variability while Vietnam and Cambodia's TWSC has been controlled by human activities since 2012.
文摘The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to understand complex mobility patterns.Deep learning techniques,such as graph neural networks(GNNs),are popular for their ability to capture spatio-temporal dependencies.However,these models often become overly complex due to the large number of hyper-parameters involved.In this study,we introduce Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Networks(DMST-GNODE),a framework based on ordinary differential equations(ODEs)that autonomously discovers effective spatial-temporal graph neural network(STGNN)architectures for traffic prediction tasks.The comparative analysis of DMST-GNODE and baseline models indicates that DMST-GNODE model demonstrates superior performance across multiple datasets,consistently achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values,alongside the highest accuracy.On the BKK(Bangkok)dataset,it outperformed other models with an RMSE of 3.3165 and an accuracy of 0.9367 for a 20-min interval,maintaining this trend across 40 and 60 min.Similarly,on the PeMS08 dataset,DMST-GNODE achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 19.4863 and an accuracy of 0.9377 at 20 min,demonstrating its effectiveness over longer periods.The Los_Loop dataset results further emphasise this model’s advantage,with an RMSE of 3.3422 and an accuracy of 0.7643 at 20 min,consistently maintaining superiority across all time intervals.These numerical highlights indicate that DMST-GNODE not only outperforms baseline models but also achieves higher accuracy and lower errors across different time intervals and datasets.
