The goal of this study was to determine the spatiotemporal characteristics of mangrove distribution and fragmentation patterns from 1988 through 2019 in Dongzhaigang.Land cover datasets were generated for Dongzhaigang...The goal of this study was to determine the spatiotemporal characteristics of mangrove distribution and fragmentation patterns from 1988 through 2019 in Dongzhaigang.Land cover datasets were generated for Dongzhaigang for multiple years via a decision tree method based on a classification and regression tree(CART)algorithm using Landsat time series images.Spatiotemporal transform and fragmentation patterns of mangrove distribution were separately assessed with a transfer matrix of land cover types and a landscape pattern index.The classification method combined with multi-band images showed good accuracy,with overall accuracy higher than 90%.Mangrove areas in 1988,1999,2009,and 2019 were 2050,1875,1818,and 1750 ha,respectively,with decreases mainly due to conversion to aquaculture ponds and farmland.A mangrove growth index(MGI)was proposed,reflecting the water-mangrove relationship,showing positive mangrove growth from 1988–2009 and negative growth from 2009–2019.Study results indicated anthropogenic factors play a leading role in the extent and scale of mangrove effects over the past 30 years.According to the analysis results,corresponding management and protection measures are proposed to provide reference for the sustainable development of Dongzhaigang Mangrove Wetland ecosystem.展开更多
Transit managers can use Intelligent Transportation System technologies to access large amounts of data to monitor network status.However,the presentation of the data lacks structural information.Existing single-netwo...Transit managers can use Intelligent Transportation System technologies to access large amounts of data to monitor network status.However,the presentation of the data lacks structural information.Existing single-network description technologies are ineffective in representing the temporal and spatial characteristics simultaneously.Therefore,there is a need for complementary methods to address these deficiencies.To address these limitations,this paper proposes an approach that combines Network Snapshots and Temporal Paths for the scheduled system.A dual information network is constructed to assess the degree of operational deviation considering the planning tasks.To validate the effectiveness,discussions are conducted through a modified cosine similarity calculation on theoretical analysis,delay level description,and the ability to identify abnormal dates.Compared to some state-of-the-art methods,the proposed method achieves an average Spearman delay correlation of 0.847 and a relative distance of 3.477.Furthermore,case analyses are invested in regions of China's Mainland,Europe,and the United States,investigating both the overall and sub-regional network fluctuations.To represent the impact of network fluctuations in sub-regions,a response loss value was developed.The times that are prone to fluctuations are also discussed through the classification of time series data.The research can offer a novel approach to system monitoring,providing a research direction that utilizes individual data combined to represent macroscopic states.Our code will be released at https://github.com/daozhong/STPN.git.展开更多
Large-scale access of distributed photovoltaic(PV)in distribution networks(DNs),if not properly evaluated,brings several operational problems.Uncertainties arising from both PV outputs and load demand significantly im...Large-scale access of distributed photovoltaic(PV)in distribution networks(DNs),if not properly evaluated,brings several operational problems.Uncertainties arising from both PV outputs and load demand significantly impact evaluation results.To address this issue,this paper proposes a possibilistic approach to evaluate PV hosting capacity(PVHC).First,possibility distribution is used to model load demand in order to reflect uncertainties associated with human factor,whereas the interval model is applied to deal with uncertainties of PV outputs.Second,a voltage deterioration index is proposed considering overvoltage risk of entire system on time scale.After that,possibilistic PVHC evaluation method based on this index is proposed.A 6-bus system is used to illustrate advantages of the proposed method,followed by a discussion of role of PVHC possibility distribution in actual decision-making of utilities.Moreover,sensitivity of simulation parameters is analyzed to reduce computational burden.Finally,the proposed method is tested on the IEEE 123-bus DN to validate adaptability to a larger system and to analyze impact of PVHC results against different acceptable values set by utilities.展开更多
In order to cope with the global environmental crisis caused by energy generation and achieve carbon neutrality,it is imperative to promote a new power system dominated by renewable energy sources(RESs).This paper foc...In order to cope with the global environmental crisis caused by energy generation and achieve carbon neutrality,it is imperative to promote a new power system dominated by renewable energy sources(RESs).This paper focuses on the uncertainty of RESs and the distribution characteristics of carbon emission flows(CEFs),and studies the low-carbon operation and power system planning problem.Firstly,this paper extends the uncertainty of RES to the meteorological field and establishes meteorological robust constraints of photovoltaic(PV)generation.Based on the CEF theory,the carbon transmission trajectory is accurately delineated to improve the operation of power system.Considering further constraints from the power flow,CEF,and component operation characteristics of the active distribution network(ADN),this paper formulates a low-carbon joint planning model of ADN with PV,battery energy storage system(BESS),and distributed gas generator(DGG),taking into account economy and carbon reduction.In the case study,the low-carbon planning and operation scheme are analyzed in detail across multiple dimensions including time and space.The solution results show that the planning model can effectively leverage the low-carbon performance of PV and BESS,and improve the distribution of CEF.Through case comparison,the model can also efficiently reduce the total cost of the system and enhance carbon emission reduction benefits by 35.10 to 41.04%.展开更多
This paper designs distributed Nash equilibrium seeking strategies for heterogeneous dynamic cyber-physical systems.In particular, we are concerned with parametric uncertainties in the control channel of the players. ...This paper designs distributed Nash equilibrium seeking strategies for heterogeneous dynamic cyber-physical systems.In particular, we are concerned with parametric uncertainties in the control channel of the players. Moreover, the weights on communication links can be compromised by time-varying uncertainties, which can result from possibly malicious attacks,faults and disturbances. To deal with the unavailability of measurement of optimization errors, an output observer is constructed,based on which adaptive laws are designed to compensate for physical uncertainties. With adaptive laws, a new distributed Nash equilibrium seeking strategy is designed by further integrating consensus protocols and gradient search algorithms.Moreover, to further accommodate compromised communication weights resulting from cyber-uncertainties, the coupling strengths of the consensus module are designed to be adaptive. As a byproduct, the coupling strengths are independent of any global information. With theoretical investigations, it is proven that the proposed strategies are resilient to these uncertainties and players' actions are convergent to the Nash equilibrium. Simulation examples are given to numerically validate the effectiveness of the proposed strategies.展开更多
As a significant city in the Yangtze River Delta regions,Hefei has experienced rapid changes in the sources of air pollution due to its high-speed economic development and urban expansion.However,there has been limite...As a significant city in the Yangtze River Delta regions,Hefei has experienced rapid changes in the sources of air pollution due to its high-speed economic development and urban expansion.However,there has been limited research in recent years on the spatial-temporal distribution and emission of its atmospheric pollutants.To address this,this study conducted mobile observations of urban roads using the Mobile-DOAS instrument from June 2021 to May 2022.The monitoring results exhibit a favourable consistent with TROPOMI satellite data and ground monitoring station data.Temporally,there were pronounced seasonal variations in air pollutants.Spatially,high concentration of HCHO and NO_(2)were closely associated with traffic congestion on roadways,while heightened SO_(2)levels were attributed to winter heating and industrial emissions.The study also revealed that with the implementation of road policies,the average vehicle speed increased by 95.4%,while the NO concentration decreased by 54.4%.In the estimation of urban NO_(x)emission flux,it was observed that in temporal terms,compared with inventory data,the emissions calculated viamobile measurements exhibitedmore distinct seasonal patterns,with the highest emission rate of 349 g/sec in winter and the lowest of 142 g/sec in summer.In spatial terms,the significant difference in emissions between the inner and outer ring roads also suggests the presence of the city’s primary NO_(x)emission sources in the area between these two rings.This study offers data support for formulating the next phase of air pollution control measures in urban areas.展开更多
Ship outfitting is a key process in shipbuilding.Efficient and high-quality ship outfitting is a top priority for modern shipyards.These activities are conducted at different stations of shipyards.The outfitting plan ...Ship outfitting is a key process in shipbuilding.Efficient and high-quality ship outfitting is a top priority for modern shipyards.These activities are conducted at different stations of shipyards.The outfitting plan is one of the crucial issues in shipbuilding.In this paper,production scheduling and material ordering with endogenous uncertainty of the outfitting process are investigated.The uncertain factors in outfitting equipment production are usually decision-related,which leads to difficulties in addressing uncertainties in the outfitting production workshops before production is conducted according to plan.This uncertainty is regarded as endogenous uncertainty and can be treated as non-anticipativity constraints in the model.To address this problem,a stochastic two-stage programming model with endogenous uncertainty is established to optimize the outfitting job scheduling and raw material ordering process.A practical case of the shipyard of China Merchants Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd.is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.Satisfactory results are achieved at the lowest expected total cost as the complete kit rate of outfitting equipment is improved and emergency replenishment is reduced.展开更多
Robustness against measurement uncertainties is crucial for gas turbine engine diagnosis.While current research focuses mainly on measurement noise,measurement bias remains challenging.This study proposes a novel perf...Robustness against measurement uncertainties is crucial for gas turbine engine diagnosis.While current research focuses mainly on measurement noise,measurement bias remains challenging.This study proposes a novel performance-based fault detection and identification(FDI)strategy for twin-shaft turbofan gas turbine engines and addresses these uncertainties through a first-order Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy inference system.To handle ambient condition changes,we use parameter correction to preprocess the raw measurement data,which reduces the FDI’s system complexity.Additionally,the power-level angle is set as a scheduling parameter to reduce the number of rules in the TSK-based FDI system.The data for designing,training,and testing the proposed FDI strategy are generated using a component-level turbofan engine model.The antecedent and consequent parameters of the TSK-based FDI system are optimized using the particle swarm optimization algorithm and ridge regression.A robust structure combining a specialized fuzzy inference system with the TSK-based FDI system is proposed to handle measurement biases.The performance of the first-order TSK-based FDI system and robust FDI structure are evaluated through comprehensive simulation studies.Comparative studies confirm the superior accuracy of the first-order TSK-based FDI system in fault detection,isolation,and identification.The robust structure demonstrates a 2%-8%improvement in the success rate index under relatively large measurement bias conditions,thereby indicating excellent robustness.Accuracy against significant bias values and computation time are also evaluated,suggesting that the proposed robust structure has desirable online performance.This study proposes a novel FDI strategy that effectively addresses measurement uncertainties.展开更多
The continuously increasing renewable energy sources(RES)and demand response(DR)are becoming crucial sources of system flexibility.Consequently,decision-dependent uncertainties(DDUs),inter-changeably referred to as en...The continuously increasing renewable energy sources(RES)and demand response(DR)are becoming crucial sources of system flexibility.Consequently,decision-dependent uncertainties(DDUs),inter-changeably referred to as endogenous uncertainties,impose new characteristics on power system dis-patch.The DDUs faced by system operators originate from uncertain dispatchable resources such as RES units or DR,while reserve providers encounter DDUs from the uncertain reserve deployment.Thus,a systematic framework was established in this study to address robust dispatch problems with DDUs.The main contributions are drawn as follows.①The robust characterization of DDUs was unfolded with a dependency decomposition structure.②A generic DDU coping mechanism was manifested as the bilateral matching between uncertainty and flexibility.③The influence of DDU incorporation on the convexity/non-convexity of robust dispatch problems was analyzed.④Generic solution algorithms adaptive for DDUs were proposed.Under this framework,the inherent distinctions and correlations between DDUs and decision-independent uncertainties(DIUs)were revealed,laying a fundamental theoretical foundation for the economic and reliable operation of RES-dominated power systems.Illustrative applications in the source and demand sides are provided to show the significance of considering DDUs and demonstrate the proposed theoretical results.展开更多
In the current situation of decelerating economic expansion,examining the digital economy(DE)as a novel economic model is beneficial for the local economy’s sustainable and high-quality development(HQD).We analyzed p...In the current situation of decelerating economic expansion,examining the digital economy(DE)as a novel economic model is beneficial for the local economy’s sustainable and high-quality development(HQD).We analyzed panel data from the Yellow River(YR)region from 2013 to 2021 and discovered notable spatial variances in the composite index and coupling coordination of the two systems.Specifically,the downstream region exhibited the highest coupling coordination,while the upstream region had the lowest.We identified that favorable factors such as economic development,innovation,industrial upgrading,and government intervention can bolster the coupling.Our findings provide a valuable framework for promoting DE and HQD in the YR region.展开更多
As the core of spatial planning in China,delineation of the production-living-ecological space(PLES)refers to dividing the overall land use into three functional spaces.Spatial units are optimally configured as the mo...As the core of spatial planning in China,delineation of the production-living-ecological space(PLES)refers to dividing the overall land use into three functional spaces.Spatial units are optimally configured as the most suitable functional type,while beset by various uncertainties.Weight uncertainties,being affected by subjective preferences,are highly arbitrary and seriously affect PLES.Taking Xuzhou as the study area,this paper studies the perturbation mechanism and response measure of weight uncertainties on PLES.First,weight samples are obtained through quasi-random sampling to serve as sources of uncertainties for input into the optimized delineation of PLES.Next,the Monte Carlo simulation is applied to simulate the spatial probability distribution of PLES.The global sensitivity analysis method is then adopted to identify the main sources that cause uncertainties in the delineation of PLES.Subsequently,the flexible space(FS)of PLES at a certain level of significance is formulated by comparing the distribution probabilities of spatial units for different functional spaces,acting as a countermeasure for the perturbation.The results show that weight uncertainties bring disturbances to the PLES by affecting the multi-criteria evaluation(MCE)of PLES delineation.The PLES is affected by the weight uncertainties of the factors alone or through interactions with other weights.FS is the spatial response measure of PLES when uncertainties occurred at a certain level of significance.The study introduces the perspective of uncertainty for PLES,which contributes toward improving the scientificity and reliability of PLES.展开更多
Accurate traffic flow prediction has a profound impact on modern traffic management. Traffic flow has complex spatial-temporal correlations and periodicity, which poses difficulties for precise prediction. To address ...Accurate traffic flow prediction has a profound impact on modern traffic management. Traffic flow has complex spatial-temporal correlations and periodicity, which poses difficulties for precise prediction. To address this problem, a Multi-head Self-attention and Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (MSSTGCN) for multiscale traffic flow prediction is proposed. Firstly, to capture the hidden traffic periodicity of traffic flow, traffic flow is divided into three kinds of periods, including hourly, daily, and weekly data. Secondly, a graph attention residual layer is constructed to learn the global spatial features across regions. Local spatial-temporal dependence is captured by using a T-GCN module. Thirdly, a transformer layer is introduced to learn the long-term dependence in time. A position embedding mechanism is introduced to label position information for all traffic sequences. Thus, this multi-head self-attention mechanism can recognize the sequence order and allocate weights for different time nodes. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that the MSSTGCN performs better than the baseline methods and can be successfully adapted to traffic prediction tasks.展开更多
This study investigates the relationships between agricultural spot markets and external uncertainties through multifractal detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis(MF-X-DMA).The dataset contains the Grain...This study investigates the relationships between agricultural spot markets and external uncertainties through multifractal detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis(MF-X-DMA).The dataset contains the Grains&Oilseeds Index(GOI)and its five subindices for wheat,maize,soyabeans,rice,and barley.Moreover,we use three uncertainty proxies,namely,economic policy uncertainty(EPU),geopolitical risk(GPR),and Volatility Index(VIX).We observe multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and uncertainties.Furthermore,statistical tests reveal that maize has intrinsic joint multifractality with all the uncertainty proxies,highly sensitive to external shocks.Additionally,intrinsic multifractality among GOI-GPR,wheat-GPR,and soyabeans-VIX is illustrated.However,other series have apparent multifractal crosscorrelations with high probabilities.Moreover,our analysis suggests that among the three types of external uncertainties,GPR has the strongest association with grain prices,excluding maize and soyabeans.展开更多
Accurate estimation of rockfall trajectories is essential for mitigation of rockfall hazards.Nowadays,Doppler radar technologies can measure rockfall trajectories with centimeter resolution.Calibrating a numerical mod...Accurate estimation of rockfall trajectories is essential for mitigation of rockfall hazards.Nowadays,Doppler radar technologies can measure rockfall trajectories with centimeter resolution.Calibrating a numerical model to fit these measured trajectories,i.e.back analysis,often involves manual trial-anderror processes and subjective goodness-of-fit criteria.Here,we propose a framework that uses the chi-square statistic to quantify the misfit between modeled and measured rockfall trajectories.The framework can also quantify the uncertainty bounds on the best-fit model parameters.The approach is validated using field data from an Australian copper mine under two scenarios.(1)We perform an unconstrained back-analysis where the initial position and velocity of the rock,in addition to the coefficients of restitution(COR),are free variables.This scenario yields a normal COR Rn?0.866±0.109 and tangential COR R_(t)=0.29±0.151 with 68%confidence.(2)We perform a constrained back-analysis using predetermined initial position and velocity of the rock,which further constrains Rn to 0.8±0.014 and Rt to 0.39±0.065.Both scenarios show a higher uncertainty in Rt than in Rn.We also demonstrate the adaptability of the back-analysis framework to two-dimensional(2D)rockfall modeling using the same data.To the best of our knowledge,this is the first quantitative goodness-of-fit metric for trajectorybased rockfall back analysis that supports the estimation of inherent uncertainty.The simplicity of the metric lends itself to robust model optimization of rockfall back-analysis and can be adapted to other model assumptions(e.g.rigid-body mechanics)and metrics(e.g.velocity or energy).展开更多
From the perspective of state-channel interaction,standard quantum teleportation can be viewed as a communication process characterized by both input and output,functioning as a quantum depolarizing channel.To achieve...From the perspective of state-channel interaction,standard quantum teleportation can be viewed as a communication process characterized by both input and output,functioning as a quantum depolarizing channel.To achieve a precise quantification of the quantumness introduced by this channel,we examine its uncertainties,which encompass both statedependent and state-independent uncertainties.Specifically,for qudit systems,we provide general formulas for these uncertainties.We analyze the uncertainties associated with standard quantum teleportation when induced by isotropic states,Werner states,and X-states,and we elucidate the correlation between these uncertainties and the parameters of the specific mixed states.Our findings demonstrate the validity of quantifying these uncertainties.展开更多
Spatial-temporal traffic prediction technology is crucial for network planning,resource allocation optimizing,and user experience improving.With the development of virtual network operators,multi-operator collaboratio...Spatial-temporal traffic prediction technology is crucial for network planning,resource allocation optimizing,and user experience improving.With the development of virtual network operators,multi-operator collaborations,and edge computing,spatial-temporal traffic data has taken on a distributed nature.Consequently,noncentralized spatial-temporal traffic prediction solutions have emerged as a recent research focus.Currently,the majority of research typically adopts federated learning methods to train traffic prediction models distributed on each base station.This method reduces additional burden on communication systems.However,this method has a drawback:it cannot handle irregular traffic data.Due to unstable wireless network environments,device failures,insufficient storage resources,etc.,data missing inevitably occurs during the process of collecting traffic data.This results in the irregular nature of distributed traffic data.Yet,commonly used traffic prediction models such as Recurrent Neural Networks(RNN)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)typically assume that the data is complete and regular.To address the challenge of handling irregular traffic data,this paper transforms irregular traffic prediction into problems of estimating latent variables and generating future traffic.To solve the aforementioned problems,this paper introduces split learning to design a structured distributed learning framework.The framework comprises a Global-level Spatial structure mining Model(GSM)and several Nodelevel Generative Models(NGMs).NGM and GSM represent Seq2Seq models deployed on the base station and graph neural network models deployed on the cloud or central controller.Firstly,the time embedding layer in NGM establishes the mapping relationship between irregular traffic data and regular latent temporal feature variables.Secondly,GSM collects statistical feature parameters of latent temporal feature variables from various nodes and executes graph embedding for spatial-temporal traffic data.Finally,NGM generates future traffic based on latent temporal and spatial feature variables.The introduction of the time attention mechanism enhances the framework’s capability to handle irregular traffic data.Graph attention network introduces spatially correlated base station traffic feature information into local traffic prediction,which compensates for missing information in local irregular traffic data.The proposed framework effectively addresses the distributed prediction issues of irregular traffic data.By testing on real world datasets,the proposed framework improves traffic prediction accuracy by 35%compared to other commonly used distributed traffic prediction methods.展开更多
The Internet of Things(IoT)technology provides data acquisition,transmission,and analysis to control rehabilitation robots,encompassing sensor data from the robots as well as lidar signals for trajectory planning(desi...The Internet of Things(IoT)technology provides data acquisition,transmission,and analysis to control rehabilitation robots,encompassing sensor data from the robots as well as lidar signals for trajectory planning(desired trajectory).In IoT rehabilitation robot systems,managing nonvanishing uncertainties and input quantization is crucial for precise and reliable control performance.These challenges can cause instability and reduced effectiveness,particularly in adaptive networked control.This paper investigates networked control with guaranteed performance for IoT rehabilitation robots under nonvanishing uncertainties and input quantization.First,input quantization is managed via a quantization-aware control design,ensur stability and minimizing tracking errors,even with discrete control inputs,to avoid chattering.Second,the method handles nonvanishing uncertainties by adjusting control parameters via real-time neural network adaptation,maintaining consistent performance despite persistent disturbances.Third,the control scheme guarantees the desired tracking performance within a specified time,with all signals in the closed-loop system remaining uniformly bounded,offering a robust,reliable solution for IoT rehabilitation robot control.The simulation verifies the benefits and efficacy of the proposed control strategy.展开更多
Seismic fragility analysis(SFA)is known as an effective probabilistic-based approach used to evaluate seismic fragility.There are various sources of uncertainties associated with this approach.A nuclear power plant(NP...Seismic fragility analysis(SFA)is known as an effective probabilistic-based approach used to evaluate seismic fragility.There are various sources of uncertainties associated with this approach.A nuclear power plant(NPP)system is an extremely important infrastructure and contains many structural uncertainties due to construction issues or structural deterioration during service.Simulation of structural uncertainties effects is a costly and time-consuming endeavor.A novel approach to SFA for the NPP considering structural uncertainties based on the damage state is proposed and examined.The results suggest that considering the structural uncertainties is essential in assessing the fragility of the NPP structure,and the impact of structural uncertainties tends to increase with the state of damage.Subsequently,machine learning(ML)is found to be superior in high-precision damage state identification of the NPP for reducing the time of nonlinear time-history analysis(NLTHA)and could be applied in the damage state-based SFA.Also,the impact of various sources of uncertainties is investigated through sensitivity analysis.The Sobol and Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)method can be complementary to each other and able to solve the problem of quantifying seismic and structural uncertainties simultaneously and the interaction effect of each parameter.展开更多
The increasingly stringent performance requirement in integrated circuit manufacturing, characterized by smaller feature sizes and higher productivity, necessitates the wafer stage executing a extreme motion with the ...The increasingly stringent performance requirement in integrated circuit manufacturing, characterized by smaller feature sizes and higher productivity, necessitates the wafer stage executing a extreme motion with the accuracy in terms of nanometers. This demanding requirement witnesses a widespread application of iterative learning control(ILC), given the repetitive nature of wafer scanning. ILC enables substantial performance improvement by using past measurement data in combination with the system model knowledge. However, challenges arise in cases where the data is contaminated by the stochastic noise, or when the system model exhibits significant uncertainties, constraining the achievable performance. In response to this issue, an extended state observer(ESO) based adaptive ILC approach is proposed in the frequency domain.Despite being model-based, it utilizes only a rough system model and then compensates for the resulting model uncertainties using an ESO, thereby achieving high robustness against uncertainties with minimal modeling effort. Additionally, an adaptive learning law is developed to mitigate the limited performance in the presence of stochastic noise, yielding high convergence accuracy yet without compromising convergence speed. Simulation and experimental comparisons with existing model-based and data-driven inversion-based ILC validate the effectiveness as well as the superiority of the proposed method.展开更多
Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with th...Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with their physical properties,external conditions,and degradation.Meanwhile,due to the limitation of testing resources,epistemic uncertainties stemming from the small samples are present in TPS reliability modeling.However,current TPS reliability modeling methods face challenges in characterizing the relationships among reliability and physical properties,external conditions,degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.Therefore,under the framework of belief reliability theory,a TPS reliability model is constructed,which takes into account the physical principle,external conditions,performance degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.A reliability simulation algorithm is proposed to calculate TPS reliability.Through a case study and comparison analysis,the proposed method is validated as more effective than the existing method.Additionally,reliability sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the sensitive factors of reliability under the condition of small samples,through which suggestions are provided for TPS functional design and improvement.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U2244225 and 42020104005)the Ministry of Education of China(111 Project)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)and China Geological Survey(No.DD20211391)。
文摘The goal of this study was to determine the spatiotemporal characteristics of mangrove distribution and fragmentation patterns from 1988 through 2019 in Dongzhaigang.Land cover datasets were generated for Dongzhaigang for multiple years via a decision tree method based on a classification and regression tree(CART)algorithm using Landsat time series images.Spatiotemporal transform and fragmentation patterns of mangrove distribution were separately assessed with a transfer matrix of land cover types and a landscape pattern index.The classification method combined with multi-band images showed good accuracy,with overall accuracy higher than 90%.Mangrove areas in 1988,1999,2009,and 2019 were 2050,1875,1818,and 1750 ha,respectively,with decreases mainly due to conversion to aquaculture ponds and farmland.A mangrove growth index(MGI)was proposed,reflecting the water-mangrove relationship,showing positive mangrove growth from 1988–2009 and negative growth from 2009–2019.Study results indicated anthropogenic factors play a leading role in the extent and scale of mangrove effects over the past 30 years.According to the analysis results,corresponding management and protection measures are proposed to provide reference for the sustainable development of Dongzhaigang Mangrove Wetland ecosystem.
文摘Transit managers can use Intelligent Transportation System technologies to access large amounts of data to monitor network status.However,the presentation of the data lacks structural information.Existing single-network description technologies are ineffective in representing the temporal and spatial characteristics simultaneously.Therefore,there is a need for complementary methods to address these deficiencies.To address these limitations,this paper proposes an approach that combines Network Snapshots and Temporal Paths for the scheduled system.A dual information network is constructed to assess the degree of operational deviation considering the planning tasks.To validate the effectiveness,discussions are conducted through a modified cosine similarity calculation on theoretical analysis,delay level description,and the ability to identify abnormal dates.Compared to some state-of-the-art methods,the proposed method achieves an average Spearman delay correlation of 0.847 and a relative distance of 3.477.Furthermore,case analyses are invested in regions of China's Mainland,Europe,and the United States,investigating both the overall and sub-regional network fluctuations.To represent the impact of network fluctuations in sub-regions,a response loss value was developed.The times that are prone to fluctuations are also discussed through the classification of time series data.The research can offer a novel approach to system monitoring,providing a research direction that utilizes individual data combined to represent macroscopic states.Our code will be released at https://github.com/daozhong/STPN.git.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFB0904700).
文摘Large-scale access of distributed photovoltaic(PV)in distribution networks(DNs),if not properly evaluated,brings several operational problems.Uncertainties arising from both PV outputs and load demand significantly impact evaluation results.To address this issue,this paper proposes a possibilistic approach to evaluate PV hosting capacity(PVHC).First,possibility distribution is used to model load demand in order to reflect uncertainties associated with human factor,whereas the interval model is applied to deal with uncertainties of PV outputs.Second,a voltage deterioration index is proposed considering overvoltage risk of entire system on time scale.After that,possibilistic PVHC evaluation method based on this index is proposed.A 6-bus system is used to illustrate advantages of the proposed method,followed by a discussion of role of PVHC possibility distribution in actual decision-making of utilities.Moreover,sensitivity of simulation parameters is analyzed to reduce computational burden.Finally,the proposed method is tested on the IEEE 123-bus DN to validate adaptability to a larger system and to analyze impact of PVHC results against different acceptable values set by utilities.
基金supported by the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52130702.
文摘In order to cope with the global environmental crisis caused by energy generation and achieve carbon neutrality,it is imperative to promote a new power system dominated by renewable energy sources(RESs).This paper focuses on the uncertainty of RESs and the distribution characteristics of carbon emission flows(CEFs),and studies the low-carbon operation and power system planning problem.Firstly,this paper extends the uncertainty of RES to the meteorological field and establishes meteorological robust constraints of photovoltaic(PV)generation.Based on the CEF theory,the carbon transmission trajectory is accurately delineated to improve the operation of power system.Considering further constraints from the power flow,CEF,and component operation characteristics of the active distribution network(ADN),this paper formulates a low-carbon joint planning model of ADN with PV,battery energy storage system(BESS),and distributed gas generator(DGG),taking into account economy and carbon reduction.In the case study,the low-carbon planning and operation scheme are analyzed in detail across multiple dimensions including time and space.The solution results show that the planning model can effectively leverage the low-carbon performance of PV and BESS,and improve the distribution of CEF.Through case comparison,the model can also efficiently reduce the total cost of the system and enhance carbon emission reduction benefits by 35.10 to 41.04%.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022ZD0119604)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(62173181,62222308,62221004)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20220139)
文摘This paper designs distributed Nash equilibrium seeking strategies for heterogeneous dynamic cyber-physical systems.In particular, we are concerned with parametric uncertainties in the control channel of the players. Moreover, the weights on communication links can be compromised by time-varying uncertainties, which can result from possibly malicious attacks,faults and disturbances. To deal with the unavailability of measurement of optimization errors, an output observer is constructed,based on which adaptive laws are designed to compensate for physical uncertainties. With adaptive laws, a new distributed Nash equilibrium seeking strategy is designed by further integrating consensus protocols and gradient search algorithms.Moreover, to further accommodate compromised communication weights resulting from cyber-uncertainties, the coupling strengths of the consensus module are designed to be adaptive. As a byproduct, the coupling strengths are independent of any global information. With theoretical investigations, it is proven that the proposed strategies are resilient to these uncertainties and players' actions are convergent to the Nash equilibrium. Simulation examples are given to numerically validate the effectiveness of the proposed strategies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U19A2044,42105132,42030609,41975037,and 42105133)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3703502)+1 种基金the Plan for Anhui Major Provincial Science&Technology Project(No.202203a07020003)Hefei Ecological Environment Bureau Project(No.2020BFFFD01804).
文摘As a significant city in the Yangtze River Delta regions,Hefei has experienced rapid changes in the sources of air pollution due to its high-speed economic development and urban expansion.However,there has been limited research in recent years on the spatial-temporal distribution and emission of its atmospheric pollutants.To address this,this study conducted mobile observations of urban roads using the Mobile-DOAS instrument from June 2021 to May 2022.The monitoring results exhibit a favourable consistent with TROPOMI satellite data and ground monitoring station data.Temporally,there were pronounced seasonal variations in air pollutants.Spatially,high concentration of HCHO and NO_(2)were closely associated with traffic congestion on roadways,while heightened SO_(2)levels were attributed to winter heating and industrial emissions.The study also revealed that with the implementation of road policies,the average vehicle speed increased by 95.4%,while the NO concentration decreased by 54.4%.In the estimation of urban NO_(x)emission flux,it was observed that in temporal terms,compared with inventory data,the emissions calculated viamobile measurements exhibitedmore distinct seasonal patterns,with the highest emission rate of 349 g/sec in winter and the lowest of 142 g/sec in summer.In spatial terms,the significant difference in emissions between the inner and outer ring roads also suggests the presence of the city’s primary NO_(x)emission sources in the area between these two rings.This study offers data support for formulating the next phase of air pollution control measures in urban areas.
基金supported in part by the High-tech ship scientific research project of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China,and the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71671113)the Science and Technology Department of Shaanxi Province(No.2020GY-219)the Ministry of Education Collaborative Project of Production,Learning and Research(No.201901024016).
文摘Ship outfitting is a key process in shipbuilding.Efficient and high-quality ship outfitting is a top priority for modern shipyards.These activities are conducted at different stations of shipyards.The outfitting plan is one of the crucial issues in shipbuilding.In this paper,production scheduling and material ordering with endogenous uncertainty of the outfitting process are investigated.The uncertain factors in outfitting equipment production are usually decision-related,which leads to difficulties in addressing uncertainties in the outfitting production workshops before production is conducted according to plan.This uncertainty is regarded as endogenous uncertainty and can be treated as non-anticipativity constraints in the model.To address this problem,a stochastic two-stage programming model with endogenous uncertainty is established to optimize the outfitting job scheduling and raw material ordering process.A practical case of the shipyard of China Merchants Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd.is used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.Satisfactory results are achieved at the lowest expected total cost as the complete kit rate of outfitting equipment is improved and emergency replenishment is reduced.
文摘Robustness against measurement uncertainties is crucial for gas turbine engine diagnosis.While current research focuses mainly on measurement noise,measurement bias remains challenging.This study proposes a novel performance-based fault detection and identification(FDI)strategy for twin-shaft turbofan gas turbine engines and addresses these uncertainties through a first-order Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy inference system.To handle ambient condition changes,we use parameter correction to preprocess the raw measurement data,which reduces the FDI’s system complexity.Additionally,the power-level angle is set as a scheduling parameter to reduce the number of rules in the TSK-based FDI system.The data for designing,training,and testing the proposed FDI strategy are generated using a component-level turbofan engine model.The antecedent and consequent parameters of the TSK-based FDI system are optimized using the particle swarm optimization algorithm and ridge regression.A robust structure combining a specialized fuzzy inference system with the TSK-based FDI system is proposed to handle measurement biases.The performance of the first-order TSK-based FDI system and robust FDI structure are evaluated through comprehensive simulation studies.Comparative studies confirm the superior accuracy of the first-order TSK-based FDI system in fault detection,isolation,and identification.The robust structure demonstrates a 2%-8%improvement in the success rate index under relatively large measurement bias conditions,thereby indicating excellent robustness.Accuracy against significant bias values and computation time are also evaluated,suggesting that the proposed robust structure has desirable online performance.This study proposes a novel FDI strategy that effectively addresses measurement uncertainties.
基金supported by the Joint Research Fund in Smart Grid(U1966601)under cooperative agreement between the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)and State Grid Corporation of China.
文摘The continuously increasing renewable energy sources(RES)and demand response(DR)are becoming crucial sources of system flexibility.Consequently,decision-dependent uncertainties(DDUs),inter-changeably referred to as endogenous uncertainties,impose new characteristics on power system dis-patch.The DDUs faced by system operators originate from uncertain dispatchable resources such as RES units or DR,while reserve providers encounter DDUs from the uncertain reserve deployment.Thus,a systematic framework was established in this study to address robust dispatch problems with DDUs.The main contributions are drawn as follows.①The robust characterization of DDUs was unfolded with a dependency decomposition structure.②A generic DDU coping mechanism was manifested as the bilateral matching between uncertainty and flexibility.③The influence of DDU incorporation on the convexity/non-convexity of robust dispatch problems was analyzed.④Generic solution algorithms adaptive for DDUs were proposed.Under this framework,the inherent distinctions and correlations between DDUs and decision-independent uncertainties(DIUs)were revealed,laying a fundamental theoretical foundation for the economic and reliable operation of RES-dominated power systems.Illustrative applications in the source and demand sides are provided to show the significance of considering DDUs and demonstrate the proposed theoretical results.
基金supported by the National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences(grant reference 22&ZD067).
文摘In the current situation of decelerating economic expansion,examining the digital economy(DE)as a novel economic model is beneficial for the local economy’s sustainable and high-quality development(HQD).We analyzed panel data from the Yellow River(YR)region from 2013 to 2021 and discovered notable spatial variances in the composite index and coupling coordination of the two systems.Specifically,the downstream region exhibited the highest coupling coordination,while the upstream region had the lowest.We identified that favorable factors such as economic development,innovation,industrial upgrading,and government intervention can bolster the coupling.Our findings provide a valuable framework for promoting DE and HQD in the YR region.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42171248,42371273)。
文摘As the core of spatial planning in China,delineation of the production-living-ecological space(PLES)refers to dividing the overall land use into three functional spaces.Spatial units are optimally configured as the most suitable functional type,while beset by various uncertainties.Weight uncertainties,being affected by subjective preferences,are highly arbitrary and seriously affect PLES.Taking Xuzhou as the study area,this paper studies the perturbation mechanism and response measure of weight uncertainties on PLES.First,weight samples are obtained through quasi-random sampling to serve as sources of uncertainties for input into the optimized delineation of PLES.Next,the Monte Carlo simulation is applied to simulate the spatial probability distribution of PLES.The global sensitivity analysis method is then adopted to identify the main sources that cause uncertainties in the delineation of PLES.Subsequently,the flexible space(FS)of PLES at a certain level of significance is formulated by comparing the distribution probabilities of spatial units for different functional spaces,acting as a countermeasure for the perturbation.The results show that weight uncertainties bring disturbances to the PLES by affecting the multi-criteria evaluation(MCE)of PLES delineation.The PLES is affected by the weight uncertainties of the factors alone or through interactions with other weights.FS is the spatial response measure of PLES when uncertainties occurred at a certain level of significance.The study introduces the perspective of uncertainty for PLES,which contributes toward improving the scientificity and reliability of PLES.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.62472149,62376089,62202147)Hubei Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project(2023BCB04100).
文摘Accurate traffic flow prediction has a profound impact on modern traffic management. Traffic flow has complex spatial-temporal correlations and periodicity, which poses difficulties for precise prediction. To address this problem, a Multi-head Self-attention and Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (MSSTGCN) for multiscale traffic flow prediction is proposed. Firstly, to capture the hidden traffic periodicity of traffic flow, traffic flow is divided into three kinds of periods, including hourly, daily, and weekly data. Secondly, a graph attention residual layer is constructed to learn the global spatial features across regions. Local spatial-temporal dependence is captured by using a T-GCN module. Thirdly, a transformer layer is introduced to learn the long-term dependence in time. A position embedding mechanism is introduced to label position information for all traffic sequences. Thus, this multi-head self-attention mechanism can recognize the sequence order and allocate weights for different time nodes. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that the MSSTGCN performs better than the baseline methods and can be successfully adapted to traffic prediction tasks.
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund Major Projects(22&ZD160).
文摘This study investigates the relationships between agricultural spot markets and external uncertainties through multifractal detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis(MF-X-DMA).The dataset contains the Grains&Oilseeds Index(GOI)and its five subindices for wheat,maize,soyabeans,rice,and barley.Moreover,we use three uncertainty proxies,namely,economic policy uncertainty(EPU),geopolitical risk(GPR),and Volatility Index(VIX).We observe multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and uncertainties.Furthermore,statistical tests reveal that maize has intrinsic joint multifractality with all the uncertainty proxies,highly sensitive to external shocks.Additionally,intrinsic multifractality among GOI-GPR,wheat-GPR,and soyabeans-VIX is illustrated.However,other series have apparent multifractal crosscorrelations with high probabilities.Moreover,our analysis suggests that among the three types of external uncertainties,GPR has the strongest association with grain prices,excluding maize and soyabeans.
基金funding from NSERC Alliance Grant ALLRP 576858e22 in partnership with Rocscience Inc.
文摘Accurate estimation of rockfall trajectories is essential for mitigation of rockfall hazards.Nowadays,Doppler radar technologies can measure rockfall trajectories with centimeter resolution.Calibrating a numerical model to fit these measured trajectories,i.e.back analysis,often involves manual trial-anderror processes and subjective goodness-of-fit criteria.Here,we propose a framework that uses the chi-square statistic to quantify the misfit between modeled and measured rockfall trajectories.The framework can also quantify the uncertainty bounds on the best-fit model parameters.The approach is validated using field data from an Australian copper mine under two scenarios.(1)We perform an unconstrained back-analysis where the initial position and velocity of the rock,in addition to the coefficients of restitution(COR),are free variables.This scenario yields a normal COR Rn?0.866±0.109 and tangential COR R_(t)=0.29±0.151 with 68%confidence.(2)We perform a constrained back-analysis using predetermined initial position and velocity of the rock,which further constrains Rn to 0.8±0.014 and Rt to 0.39±0.065.Both scenarios show a higher uncertainty in Rt than in Rn.We also demonstrate the adaptability of the back-analysis framework to two-dimensional(2D)rockfall modeling using the same data.To the best of our knowledge,this is the first quantitative goodness-of-fit metric for trajectorybased rockfall back analysis that supports the estimation of inherent uncertainty.The simplicity of the metric lends itself to robust model optimization of rockfall back-analysis and can be adapted to other model assumptions(e.g.rigid-body mechanics)and metrics(e.g.velocity or energy).
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12201300).
文摘From the perspective of state-channel interaction,standard quantum teleportation can be viewed as a communication process characterized by both input and output,functioning as a quantum depolarizing channel.To achieve a precise quantification of the quantumness introduced by this channel,we examine its uncertainties,which encompass both statedependent and state-independent uncertainties.Specifically,for qudit systems,we provide general formulas for these uncertainties.We analyze the uncertainties associated with standard quantum teleportation when induced by isotropic states,Werner states,and X-states,and we elucidate the correlation between these uncertainties and the parameters of the specific mixed states.Our findings demonstrate the validity of quantifying these uncertainties.
基金supported by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(Certificate Number:L234025).
文摘Spatial-temporal traffic prediction technology is crucial for network planning,resource allocation optimizing,and user experience improving.With the development of virtual network operators,multi-operator collaborations,and edge computing,spatial-temporal traffic data has taken on a distributed nature.Consequently,noncentralized spatial-temporal traffic prediction solutions have emerged as a recent research focus.Currently,the majority of research typically adopts federated learning methods to train traffic prediction models distributed on each base station.This method reduces additional burden on communication systems.However,this method has a drawback:it cannot handle irregular traffic data.Due to unstable wireless network environments,device failures,insufficient storage resources,etc.,data missing inevitably occurs during the process of collecting traffic data.This results in the irregular nature of distributed traffic data.Yet,commonly used traffic prediction models such as Recurrent Neural Networks(RNN)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)typically assume that the data is complete and regular.To address the challenge of handling irregular traffic data,this paper transforms irregular traffic prediction into problems of estimating latent variables and generating future traffic.To solve the aforementioned problems,this paper introduces split learning to design a structured distributed learning framework.The framework comprises a Global-level Spatial structure mining Model(GSM)and several Nodelevel Generative Models(NGMs).NGM and GSM represent Seq2Seq models deployed on the base station and graph neural network models deployed on the cloud or central controller.Firstly,the time embedding layer in NGM establishes the mapping relationship between irregular traffic data and regular latent temporal feature variables.Secondly,GSM collects statistical feature parameters of latent temporal feature variables from various nodes and executes graph embedding for spatial-temporal traffic data.Finally,NGM generates future traffic based on latent temporal and spatial feature variables.The introduction of the time attention mechanism enhances the framework’s capability to handle irregular traffic data.Graph attention network introduces spatially correlated base station traffic feature information into local traffic prediction,which compensates for missing information in local irregular traffic data.The proposed framework effectively addresses the distributed prediction issues of irregular traffic data.By testing on real world datasets,the proposed framework improves traffic prediction accuracy by 35%compared to other commonly used distributed traffic prediction methods.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62302475in part by the Research Funds of Centre for Leading Medicine and Advanced Technologies of IHM under Grant 2023IHM01081 and 2023IHM01085+1 种基金in part by the Hefei Municipal Natural Science Foundation under Grant 202328partly by the Anhui Science and Technology Innovation Tackling Plan Project under Grant 202423k09020044。
文摘The Internet of Things(IoT)technology provides data acquisition,transmission,and analysis to control rehabilitation robots,encompassing sensor data from the robots as well as lidar signals for trajectory planning(desired trajectory).In IoT rehabilitation robot systems,managing nonvanishing uncertainties and input quantization is crucial for precise and reliable control performance.These challenges can cause instability and reduced effectiveness,particularly in adaptive networked control.This paper investigates networked control with guaranteed performance for IoT rehabilitation robots under nonvanishing uncertainties and input quantization.First,input quantization is managed via a quantization-aware control design,ensur stability and minimizing tracking errors,even with discrete control inputs,to avoid chattering.Second,the method handles nonvanishing uncertainties by adjusting control parameters via real-time neural network adaptation,maintaining consistent performance despite persistent disturbances.Third,the control scheme guarantees the desired tracking performance within a specified time,with all signals in the closed-loop system remaining uniformly bounded,offering a robust,reliable solution for IoT rehabilitation robot control.The simulation verifies the benefits and efficacy of the proposed control strategy.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.52208191 and 51908397Shanxi Province Science Foundation for Youths under Grant No.201901D211025China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2020M670695。
文摘Seismic fragility analysis(SFA)is known as an effective probabilistic-based approach used to evaluate seismic fragility.There are various sources of uncertainties associated with this approach.A nuclear power plant(NPP)system is an extremely important infrastructure and contains many structural uncertainties due to construction issues or structural deterioration during service.Simulation of structural uncertainties effects is a costly and time-consuming endeavor.A novel approach to SFA for the NPP considering structural uncertainties based on the damage state is proposed and examined.The results suggest that considering the structural uncertainties is essential in assessing the fragility of the NPP structure,and the impact of structural uncertainties tends to increase with the state of damage.Subsequently,machine learning(ML)is found to be superior in high-precision damage state identification of the NPP for reducing the time of nonlinear time-history analysis(NLTHA)and could be applied in the damage state-based SFA.Also,the impact of various sources of uncertainties is investigated through sensitivity analysis.The Sobol and Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)method can be complementary to each other and able to solve the problem of quantifying seismic and structural uncertainties simultaneously and the interaction effect of each parameter.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(52375530,52075132)Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(YQ2022E025)+4 种基金State Key Laboratory of Precision Electronic Manufacturing Technology and Equipment(Guangdong University of Technology)(JMDZ202312)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(HIT.OCEF.2024034)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019M651278,2020T130155)Heilongjiang Province Postdoctoral Science Foundation(LBH-Z19066)Space Drive and Manipulation Mechanism Laboratory of BICE and National Key Laboratory of Space Intelligent Control,No BICE-SDMM-2024-01
文摘The increasingly stringent performance requirement in integrated circuit manufacturing, characterized by smaller feature sizes and higher productivity, necessitates the wafer stage executing a extreme motion with the accuracy in terms of nanometers. This demanding requirement witnesses a widespread application of iterative learning control(ILC), given the repetitive nature of wafer scanning. ILC enables substantial performance improvement by using past measurement data in combination with the system model knowledge. However, challenges arise in cases where the data is contaminated by the stochastic noise, or when the system model exhibits significant uncertainties, constraining the achievable performance. In response to this issue, an extended state observer(ESO) based adaptive ILC approach is proposed in the frequency domain.Despite being model-based, it utilizes only a rough system model and then compensates for the resulting model uncertainties using an ESO, thereby achieving high robustness against uncertainties with minimal modeling effort. Additionally, an adaptive learning law is developed to mitigate the limited performance in the presence of stochastic noise, yielding high convergence accuracy yet without compromising convergence speed. Simulation and experimental comparisons with existing model-based and data-driven inversion-based ILC validate the effectiveness as well as the superiority of the proposed method.
基金supported by the steady supports scientific research of Key Laboratory of Defense Science and Technology,China(No.WDZC20220105)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51775020,62073009,U20B2002)the Science Challenge Project,China(No.TZ2018007)。
文摘Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with their physical properties,external conditions,and degradation.Meanwhile,due to the limitation of testing resources,epistemic uncertainties stemming from the small samples are present in TPS reliability modeling.However,current TPS reliability modeling methods face challenges in characterizing the relationships among reliability and physical properties,external conditions,degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.Therefore,under the framework of belief reliability theory,a TPS reliability model is constructed,which takes into account the physical principle,external conditions,performance degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.A reliability simulation algorithm is proposed to calculate TPS reliability.Through a case study and comparison analysis,the proposed method is validated as more effective than the existing method.Additionally,reliability sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the sensitive factors of reliability under the condition of small samples,through which suggestions are provided for TPS functional design and improvement.
