AI-driven fintech industries face critical vulnerabilities from volatile rare earth and metallic mineral prices,geopolitical instability,and inflationary pressures.Sovereign inflation-linked bonds serve as incentives ...AI-driven fintech industries face critical vulnerabilities from volatile rare earth and metallic mineral prices,geopolitical instability,and inflationary pressures.Sovereign inflation-linked bonds serve as incentives for investors in technological industries,despite the risks associated with rising costs of goods.By analyzing global data(8 September 2020–9 September 2023)via cross-quantilogram,recursive cross-quantilogram and quantile vector autoregressive approaches,this study reveals how Russia–Ukraine geopolitical risk,sovereign inflation–linked bonds,rare earth and metallic mineral prices disrupt AI-driven fintech outputs.Key findings indicate that rising rare earth prices suppress fintech productivity in long-term growth periods,whereas sovereign inflation-linked bonds mitigate short-term inflationary risk.Geopolitical turmoil disproportionately harms fintech outputs during market downturns,with both mineral price volatility and conflict-driven shocks amplifying systemic instability in fintech outputs and sovereign inflation-linked bonds.These results urge policymakers to secure critical mineral supply chains,promote inflation-hedging financial instruments,and foster international cooperation to buffer AI-driven fintech sectors against geopolitical and resource-driven disruptions.展开更多
This study investigates the determinants that drive the volatility of the credit default swaps(CDS)of BRICIT(Brazil,Russia,India,China,Indonesia,and Turkey)nations as a proxy measure for sovereign risk.On the existenc...This study investigates the determinants that drive the volatility of the credit default swaps(CDS)of BRICIT(Brazil,Russia,India,China,Indonesia,and Turkey)nations as a proxy measure for sovereign risk.On the existence of cointegration,an unrestricted error correction model integrated with the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)model is applied to measure the short-run and long-run dynamics empirically.The study utilizes the Bayesian global vector autoregression methodology for cross-border spillover estimation.The study also suggests a strategy for policymakers for quadrant categorization to mitigate risk arising from cross-border spillover.The result of ARDL indicates that the global macroeconomic variables affect the BRICIT CDS more than domestic macroeconomic determinants,with Indian CDS being the most sensitive to Fed tapering.Notably,China’s CDS is the most sensitive to shocks,with the CDS volatility primarily driven by China’s geopolitical risk.Russian CDS is more sensitive to real effective exchange rates due to severe ruble depreciation than crude oil,despite Russia being a major oil exporter.The quadrant categorization indicates that the Indonesian stock market index is most interconnected with BRICIT CDS,while the Turkish long-term interest rates send the highest intensity spillover across BRICIT nations.展开更多
This study examines the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model approach.Our results reveal that dome...This study examines the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model approach.Our results reveal that domestic factors,such as exchange rate and inflation,rather than the U.S.10-Year sovereign bond yield,are the key drivers of Nigeria 10-Year bond yield.Additionally,the spillover effect from the U.S.monetary policy was amplified by oil price shocks and changes in Nigeria’s monetary policy rates.Our counterfactual analysis confirms the findings.展开更多
Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China...Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.展开更多
The underlying literature hypothesises and provides randomised evidence for the positive impact of promoting the broad-based inclusion,empowerment,and representation of women on regional ecosystems.This study seeks to...The underlying literature hypothesises and provides randomised evidence for the positive impact of promoting the broad-based inclusion,empowerment,and representation of women on regional ecosystems.This study seeks to isolate a female agencydriven development factor in external sovereign emerging market debt and finds evidence for superior risk-adjusted returns from tilting towards female agency leaders.We propose the female agency factor as an additional scope in the modern investor’s toolbox of holistic credit assessment,allowing investors to isolate the issuers which are the most effective sovereign transmission mechanisms of sustainable development capital.This contribution to the corpus supports the notion of integrating sustainability factors into portfolio construction and reinforces the argument for supporting femaleled development from a financial markets’perspective.展开更多
We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,...We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,degree,betweenness,closeness,and eigenvector centralities,to detect whether network properties drive the currency risk premia.We observe that closeness and betweenness centralities can negatively drive currency excess returns but do not exhibit a relationship with forward spread.Thus,our developed network centralities are independent of an unconditional carry trade risk factor.Based on our findings,we develop a trading strategy by taking a long position on peripheral countries’currencies and a short position on core coun-tries’currencies.The aforementioned strategy generates a higher Sharpe ratio than the currency momentum strategy.Our proposed strategy is robust to foreign exchange regimes and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.展开更多
The UK government successfully issues a sovereign bond in China’s currency,the renminbi(RMB),becoming the first western country to do so,according to British Embassy in China.The sovereign bond,issued on October 14 i...The UK government successfully issues a sovereign bond in China’s currency,the renminbi(RMB),becoming the first western country to do so,according to British Embassy in China.The sovereign bond,issued on October 14 in RMB,was the largest ever non-Chinese RMB bond.The RMB 3 billion bond,which is equivalent to approximately?300million,has a maturity of 3 years and delivers on the展开更多
Asovereign remedy for coronary heart disease, the traditional Chinese patent medicine Shan Hai Dan, in the form of tablets, capsules, oral jelly, drinks and health wine, and produced by the Shan Hai Dan Industrial Ent...Asovereign remedy for coronary heart disease, the traditional Chinese patent medicine Shan Hai Dan, in the form of tablets, capsules, oral jelly, drinks and health wine, and produced by the Shan Hai Dan Industrial Enterprise Group. is a discovery made by Zhao Guoxin, professor at the Si’an Traditional Chinese Medicine and展开更多
Debt-to-GDP measures in major OECD countries are at historical highs and a considerable part of sovereign debt needs to be refinanced soon,while projections of real GDP growth are fairly weak and uncertain and assesse...Debt-to-GDP measures in major OECD countries are at historical highs and a considerable part of sovereign debt needs to be refinanced soon,while projections of real GDP growth are fairly weak and uncertain and assessed sovereign credit quality has declined.Against this,the OECD Committee on Financial Markets discussed proposals for sovereign debt managers to consider issuing GDP-linked sovereign bonds.The Committee considered proposals timely and the idea conceptually attractive,as additional insurance against economic downturns over the medium term would be available.It identified however also a number of issues that would complicate issuance in practise.Questions arise in particular as regards investor demand for such instruments and how an additional novelty,liquidity and indexation premium would compare to a potentially reduced default premium on more traditional debt.Debt management offices confirm and stress such practical difficulties and remain sceptical,quoting a lack of sustainable demand for such bonds.As a result,issuance of such bonds would be too costly.It is not clear however whether debt management offices take into account the full macroeconomic and financial stability risk-return trade-off that a broader perspective would take into account.Proposals for issuance of sovereign GDP-linked bonds among advanced economies,which had received increased attention after the German G20-presidency included the topic in the G20 finance track,may have lost some momentum,but there continues to be considerable support from both academics and some practitioners.展开更多
THE world should be celebrating the creation of the United Nations(UN)80 years ago.However,its very existence is threatened.China recognizes the UN as the core of the international system.The UN Charter is a legal tre...THE world should be celebrating the creation of the United Nations(UN)80 years ago.However,its very existence is threatened.China recognizes the UN as the core of the international system.The UN Charter is a legal treaty under which national governments freely agree to uphold values and principles of behaviour.As a manifestation of the principle of“the sovereign equality of members,”each has an equal vote in the General Assembly.展开更多
基金supported by the grant of the Russian Science Foundation(RSF Code:23-18-01065).
文摘AI-driven fintech industries face critical vulnerabilities from volatile rare earth and metallic mineral prices,geopolitical instability,and inflationary pressures.Sovereign inflation-linked bonds serve as incentives for investors in technological industries,despite the risks associated with rising costs of goods.By analyzing global data(8 September 2020–9 September 2023)via cross-quantilogram,recursive cross-quantilogram and quantile vector autoregressive approaches,this study reveals how Russia–Ukraine geopolitical risk,sovereign inflation–linked bonds,rare earth and metallic mineral prices disrupt AI-driven fintech outputs.Key findings indicate that rising rare earth prices suppress fintech productivity in long-term growth periods,whereas sovereign inflation-linked bonds mitigate short-term inflationary risk.Geopolitical turmoil disproportionately harms fintech outputs during market downturns,with both mineral price volatility and conflict-driven shocks amplifying systemic instability in fintech outputs and sovereign inflation-linked bonds.These results urge policymakers to secure critical mineral supply chains,promote inflation-hedging financial instruments,and foster international cooperation to buffer AI-driven fintech sectors against geopolitical and resource-driven disruptions.
文摘This study investigates the determinants that drive the volatility of the credit default swaps(CDS)of BRICIT(Brazil,Russia,India,China,Indonesia,and Turkey)nations as a proxy measure for sovereign risk.On the existence of cointegration,an unrestricted error correction model integrated with the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)model is applied to measure the short-run and long-run dynamics empirically.The study utilizes the Bayesian global vector autoregression methodology for cross-border spillover estimation.The study also suggests a strategy for policymakers for quadrant categorization to mitigate risk arising from cross-border spillover.The result of ARDL indicates that the global macroeconomic variables affect the BRICIT CDS more than domestic macroeconomic determinants,with Indian CDS being the most sensitive to Fed tapering.Notably,China’s CDS is the most sensitive to shocks,with the CDS volatility primarily driven by China’s geopolitical risk.Russian CDS is more sensitive to real effective exchange rates due to severe ruble depreciation than crude oil,despite Russia being a major oil exporter.The quadrant categorization indicates that the Indonesian stock market index is most interconnected with BRICIT CDS,while the Turkish long-term interest rates send the highest intensity spillover across BRICIT nations.
文摘This study examines the spillover effects of U.S.monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017,using the vector error correction model approach.Our results reveal that domestic factors,such as exchange rate and inflation,rather than the U.S.10-Year sovereign bond yield,are the key drivers of Nigeria 10-Year bond yield.Additionally,the spillover effect from the U.S.monetary policy was amplified by oil price shocks and changes in Nigeria’s monetary policy rates.Our counterfactual analysis confirms the findings.
文摘Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.
文摘The underlying literature hypothesises and provides randomised evidence for the positive impact of promoting the broad-based inclusion,empowerment,and representation of women on regional ecosystems.This study seeks to isolate a female agencydriven development factor in external sovereign emerging market debt and finds evidence for superior risk-adjusted returns from tilting towards female agency leaders.We propose the female agency factor as an additional scope in the modern investor’s toolbox of holistic credit assessment,allowing investors to isolate the issuers which are the most effective sovereign transmission mechanisms of sustainable development capital.This contribution to the corpus supports the notion of integrating sustainability factors into portfolio construction and reinforces the argument for supporting femaleled development from a financial markets’perspective.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,Grant No.2023A1515030221.
文摘We construct a sovereign default network by employing high-dimensional vector autoregressions obtained by analyzing connectedness in sovereign credit default swap markets.We develop four measures of centrality,namely,degree,betweenness,closeness,and eigenvector centralities,to detect whether network properties drive the currency risk premia.We observe that closeness and betweenness centralities can negatively drive currency excess returns but do not exhibit a relationship with forward spread.Thus,our developed network centralities are independent of an unconditional carry trade risk factor.Based on our findings,we develop a trading strategy by taking a long position on peripheral countries’currencies and a short position on core coun-tries’currencies.The aforementioned strategy generates a higher Sharpe ratio than the currency momentum strategy.Our proposed strategy is robust to foreign exchange regimes and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
文摘The UK government successfully issues a sovereign bond in China’s currency,the renminbi(RMB),becoming the first western country to do so,according to British Embassy in China.The sovereign bond,issued on October 14 in RMB,was the largest ever non-Chinese RMB bond.The RMB 3 billion bond,which is equivalent to approximately?300million,has a maturity of 3 years and delivers on the
文摘Asovereign remedy for coronary heart disease, the traditional Chinese patent medicine Shan Hai Dan, in the form of tablets, capsules, oral jelly, drinks and health wine, and produced by the Shan Hai Dan Industrial Enterprise Group. is a discovery made by Zhao Guoxin, professor at the Si’an Traditional Chinese Medicine and
文摘Debt-to-GDP measures in major OECD countries are at historical highs and a considerable part of sovereign debt needs to be refinanced soon,while projections of real GDP growth are fairly weak and uncertain and assessed sovereign credit quality has declined.Against this,the OECD Committee on Financial Markets discussed proposals for sovereign debt managers to consider issuing GDP-linked sovereign bonds.The Committee considered proposals timely and the idea conceptually attractive,as additional insurance against economic downturns over the medium term would be available.It identified however also a number of issues that would complicate issuance in practise.Questions arise in particular as regards investor demand for such instruments and how an additional novelty,liquidity and indexation premium would compare to a potentially reduced default premium on more traditional debt.Debt management offices confirm and stress such practical difficulties and remain sceptical,quoting a lack of sustainable demand for such bonds.As a result,issuance of such bonds would be too costly.It is not clear however whether debt management offices take into account the full macroeconomic and financial stability risk-return trade-off that a broader perspective would take into account.Proposals for issuance of sovereign GDP-linked bonds among advanced economies,which had received increased attention after the German G20-presidency included the topic in the G20 finance track,may have lost some momentum,but there continues to be considerable support from both academics and some practitioners.
文摘THE world should be celebrating the creation of the United Nations(UN)80 years ago.However,its very existence is threatened.China recognizes the UN as the core of the international system.The UN Charter is a legal treaty under which national governments freely agree to uphold values and principles of behaviour.As a manifestation of the principle of“the sovereign equality of members,”each has an equal vote in the General Assembly.
