This paper presents a comprehensive area expansion prediction index method to apply GNSS for short-impending prediction of earthquakes. Based on continuous GNSS observation data from Yunnan Province, a displacement fi...This paper presents a comprehensive area expansion prediction index method to apply GNSS for short-impending prediction of earthquakes. Based on continuous GNSS observation data from Yunnan Province, a displacement field was detected after data cycle-slip repair using precision data processing software and geophysical field effect model correction. The Yunnan area was divided into 56 grid cells for displacement field interpolation to obtain a more uniform displacement field and a strain field variation time series. The pre-earthquake response of each grid-cell expansion time series was evaluated and synthesized to extract a short-impending earthquake anomaly identification index. The results show that this index indicated occurrence times and hypocenter for earthquakes of magnitude M≥5. Fourteen earthquakes were predicted accurately, and there were five false reports. This index can therefore be used for the short-impending prediction of earthquakes.展开更多
The climatological characteristics of the moisture budget over the joining area of Asia and the IndianPacific Ocean （AIPO） and its adjacent regions as well as their anomalies have been estimated in this study. The m...The climatological characteristics of the moisture budget over the joining area of Asia and the IndianPacific Ocean （AIPO） and its adjacent regions as well as their anomalies have been estimated in this study. The main results are as follows. In the winter, the northeasterly moisture transport covers the extensive areas at the lower latitudes of the AIPO. The westerly and northerly moisture transport is the major source and the South Indian Ocean （SIO） is the moisture sink. In the summer, influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal wind, the crossequatorial southwesterly moisture transport across Somali originating from the SIO is transported through the Arabian Sea （AS）, the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, and the South China Sea （SCS） to eastern China. The AIPO is controlled by the southwesterly moisture transport. The net moisture influx over the AIPO has obvious interannual and interdecadal variations. From the mid- or late 1970s, the influxes over the SIO, the AS, the northern part of the western North Pacific （NWNP）, and North China （NC） as well as South China （SC） begin to decrease abruptly, while those over Northeast China （NEC） and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins （YHRB） have increased remarkably. As a whole, the net moisture influxes over the BOB and the southern part of the western North Pacific （SWNP） in the recent 50 years take on a linear increasing trend. However, the transition timing for these two regions is different with the former being at the mid- or late 1980s and the latter occurring earlier, approximately at the early stage of the 1970s. The anomalous moisture source associated with the precipitation anomalies is different from the normal conditions of the summer precipitation. For the drought or flood years or the years of E1 Nifio and its following years, the anomalous moisture transport originating from the western North Pacific （WNP） is the vital source of the anomalous precipitation over eastern China, which is greatly related with the variation of the subtropical Pacific high.展开更多
The characteristics of zonal anomaly and change rule of temporal distribution of annual precipitation in the northeastern China are revealed in this paper with EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) and REOF (Rotated Emp...The characteristics of zonal anomaly and change rule of temporal distribution of annual precipitation in the northeastern China are revealed in this paper with EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) and REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function) methods and results are drawn in the standard relief maps with GIS technology for practical application. Data used in the study were obtained from 208 meteorological stations over the northeastern China from 1961 to 2001. EOF results show that the first 3 loading vectors could give entire spatial anomaly structure of annual precipitation. In the Northeast Plain including the Songneng Plain and the Liaohe Plain, there is a regional compatibility (whether wet or dry) of annual precipitation change and this precipitation pattern has occurred since the late 1980s to the present. There also exist annual precipitation patterns of wet (or dry) in south and dry (or wet) in north and wet (or dry) in east and dry (or wet) in west. REOF results display 8 principal precipitation anomaly areas by the first 8 rotated loading vectors: the west plain, the Liaodong hills, the Sanjiang Plain, the Liaoxi hills, the Changbai Mountains, the Hulun Buir Plateau, the southwest plateau and the Liaodong Peninsula.展开更多
This study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of geomagnetic anomalies before and after the 2013 Sichuan Lushan M7.0 earthquake and the Gansu Minxian M6.6 earthquake by constructing a...This study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of geomagnetic anomalies before and after the 2013 Sichuan Lushan M7.0 earthquake and the Gansu Minxian M6.6 earthquake by constructing a geomagnetic diurnal variation model based on Taylor polynomial fitting,combined with midnight mean values of the geomagnetic F component from China,s geomagnetic observatory network.The results reveal distinct differences in anomaly patterns,namely per-sistent positive anomalies were observed in the epicentral region of the Lushan earthquake,while significant negative anomalies characterized the Minxian earthquake zone.This differential response reveals the modulating effect of the electrical structure of the seismogenic medium on space electromagnetic disturbances,namely positive anomalies may correspond to the stage of stable stress accumulation in intact rock,while the expansion of negative anomalies may reflect an amplification of electromagnetic disturbances induced by fracture expansion.Further analysis demonstrates that both anomalies exhibit a three-stage evolutionary pattern,namely pre-seismic accumulation,co-seismic release,and post-seismic adjustment.The phase transitions in these anomalies are closely correlated with regional tectonic stress accumulation and destabilization processes.These findings not only provide new evidence for the physical interpretation of seismomagnetic precursors but also establish a theoretical foundation for developing earthquake prediction methods based on the dynamic evolution of geomagnetic anomalies.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China from 1951 to 2010. [Method] Based on monthly precipitation data at 44 stations of...[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China from 1951 to 2010. [Method] Based on monthly precipitation data at 44 stations of southwest China and 160 stations of China from 1951 to 2010, by using EOF analysis, wavelet analysis and composite analysis, monthly and seasonal change rules of the precipitation in southwest China were analyzed. Corresponding spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the precipitation in drought and flood years were studied. Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China in recent 60 years were revealed. [Result] Seasonal distribution of the precipitation in southwest China was uneven and was typical single-peak type. Precipitation concentrated from May to September, and peak appeared in July. In recent years, rainfall in autumn significantly became less, while that in other seasons had no obvious change. Precipitation in summer had the cycle of 14 years, another for 6 years and 3-4 years of periodic oscillations. In wet years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in southern China, and anti-phase with that in the junction of Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang and Tibet. In dry years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in the eastern part of northwest China and northern China. [Conclusion] The research provided reference basis for prediction and pre-warning of the precipitation in the zone.展开更多
This paper introduces the basic parameters,focal mechanism solutions and earthquake sequence characteristics of the Kalpin M_S5.3 earthquake sequence of December 1,2013,and analyzed seismic activity before the earthqu...This paper introduces the basic parameters,focal mechanism solutions and earthquake sequence characteristics of the Kalpin M_S5.3 earthquake sequence of December 1,2013,and analyzed seismic activity before the earthquake,the adjacent tectonic features and the precursory anomaly at fixed points within a range of 200 km. Research indicates:(1) The earthquake occurred on Kalpin fault,the source rupture type is thrust faulting with sinistral strike-slip component.( 2) The earthquake sequence is mainshock-aftershock type,with the aftershock distribution attenuating quickly and trending NE.(3) Abnormal seismic activity before the earthquake was characterized by seismically nesting quiescence of MS2. 0-4. 0 earthquakes,seismic quiescence of MS4. 0 earthquakes and seismic belts of MS3. 0 earthquakes in the Kalpin block, abnormal enhancement zone of moderate earthquakes on Puchang fault and seismological parameters.(4) Anomalies of precursory observation data at fixed stations are mainly characterized by mutation. Apart from the borehole tiltmeter in Halajun, the spatial distribution of other abnormal precursors showed a phenomenon of migration from the near field to far field and from the epicenter to the peripheries.展开更多
In this study, a number of typical precursory anomalies recorded by stations in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Hebei and Shaanxi provinces and autonomous regions before the Ms8.1 earthquake in the west of...In this study, a number of typical precursory anomalies recorded by stations in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Hebei and Shaanxi provinces and autonomous regions before the Ms8.1 earthquake in the west of Kunlun Mountains Pass are collected and checked. According to the standards of earthquake cases in China, the criteria of the precursory anomalies are determined, and 53 distinguished. The characteristics of these anomalies before the Ms S. 1 earthquake are analyzed, with results showing a very large earthquake affected area. The precursory anomalies recorded by instruments were 2900 km away from the epicenter, and according to the study in this paper, reached 2100 km away. The results also show that the anomalies present characteristics of long duration, multi-measurement items and large-amplitude variation. The authors believe that in large earthquake monitoring, attention should be paid to the variation of data over a large area, ranging up to thousands kilometers, with much denser earthquake observation networks.展开更多
Located in an earthquake-prone region,the geological structures in Yunnan Province are complex. Taking into account that Tonghai county is located in the intersection of Xiaojiang fault and Honghe fault, an ACF-4M ELF...Located in an earthquake-prone region,the geological structures in Yunnan Province are complex. Taking into account that Tonghai county is located in the intersection of Xiaojiang fault and Honghe fault, an ACF-4M ELF electromagnetic instrument was installed at the Tonghai seismic station,which has produced continuous reliable data. The author collected the data and information for the year 2009 and 2010,and performed analysis on the variation characteristics of both geomagnetic fields and electrical resistivity. The result shows that the 1Hz and 39Hz electromagnetic power spectra are 0. 2 to 1. 4 orders of magnitude higher than the normal values immediately before many earthquakes. The anomalies are represented by the abrupt changes of the electric and magnetic field power spectra in earthquake and aftershock sequences,and the amplitude of change is related to the size of earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance. The electrical resistivity also obviously changes. Therefore, further research on the anomalous characteristics of ELF electromagnetic data will be meaningful to the future use of this instrument in earthquake prediction.展开更多
Observations made in different superlarge\|large gold deposits in Ailaoshan gold metallogenic belts, Yunnan Province, China, on the eastern margin of the Qingzang (Himalayas—Karakoram—Tibet) were investigated. Geote...Observations made in different superlarge\|large gold deposits in Ailaoshan gold metallogenic belts, Yunnan Province, China, on the eastern margin of the Qingzang (Himalayas—Karakoram—Tibet) were investigated. Geotectonically, the study area is situated in the conjoint between the Tethys and Himalayas tectonic domain, characterized by very complex geological structure, with strongly influenced by the Himalayas in late development.1\ Regional geology and gold deposits\;Ailaoshan gold metallogenic belts is localized between Ailaoshan super lithospheric faults and Jiujia—Anding brittle\|ductile shear zone, with NNW\|trending about 250km long. To southward, Zhenyuan supergiant gold deposits, Mojiang large gold deposits, and Daping giant gold deposits hosted in low metamorphic volcanic\|sedimentary rocks (D—C). Ore types include gold\|bearing quartz veins, gold\|bearing altered rocks, and the mixing of the two types. Most of gold orebodies took their positions in the substructures of the brittle\|ductile shear zone.展开更多
Based on the data from repeated precise leveling and across-fault deformation measurements carried out in recent 30 years and the analyzed results from GPS observations made in recent years along the northeastern marg...Based on the data from repeated precise leveling and across-fault deformation measurements carried out in recent 30 years and the analyzed results from GPS observations made in recent years along the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang block, and combined with the geological structures and seismic activities, some characteristics in regional tectonic deformation and strong earthquake development are studied and approached preliminarily. The results show that: a) The space-time distribution of current tectonic deformation in this area is inhomogeneous with relatively intensive tectonic deformation in the vicinity of main boundary faults and weak deformation in the farther areas. The intensity of vertical differential movement and the deformation status vary with time, and the horizontal movement and deformation are characterized by apparent compression and strike-slip. b) The tectonic stress field generated by the NE-trending continuous compressive movement of Qinghai-Xizang block due to the northward press and collision of India plate is the principal stress for the tectonic deformation and earthquake development in this area. The evolution of space-time distribution of tectonic deformation and seismicity is closely related to the block activity and dynamic evolution of regional tectonic stress field. c) The vertical deformation uplift and high-gradient deformation zones and the obvious fault deformation anomaly appeared along the boundaries of tectonic blocks can be considered as the indicators of hindered block motion and intensified tectonic stress field for strong earthquake development. Usually, the above-mentioned phenomena would be followed by the seismicity of M6.0, but the earthquake might not occur in the place with the maximum movement. The zones with the fault deformation anomaly characterized by tendencious accumulation acceleration turning and the surrounding areas might be the positions for accumulation of strain energy and development and occurrence of strong earthquakes.展开更多
This article made a systematic statistical analysis on the duration,spatial distribution,form,range,type and reliability of precursory anomalies based on the observations of precursors of 24 moderate-strong earthquake...This article made a systematic statistical analysis on the duration,spatial distribution,form,range,type and reliability of precursory anomalies based on the observations of precursors of 24 moderate-strong earthquakes occurring along the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone and its bilateral areas in Shandong,Liaoning,Hebei,Jiangsu and Jiangxi Provinces in the period from 1966 to 2005. Results show that:( 1) For M7. 0 and M6. 0earthquakes,med-term abnormities are the greatest in number,short-term abnormities come second,and imminent anomalies are the least. For M5. 0 earthquakes,short-term abnormities are often the most in number,imminent anomalies come second,and the med-term ones are the least.( 2) Precursory anomalies are periodical,part of the med and short-term anomalies are shown as short-term and imminent anomalies during their development.( 3) The development of precursor shows quasi-synchronism; the closer to earthquake occurrence time,the more turning changes of anomalies will appear.( 4)Anomalies mainly occur within an epicenter distance of 100 km, showing a relative concentrated distribution in space,and the shorter the distance to epicenter,the higher the anomaly station / item rate.( 5) The spatial distribution of anomalies is relatively correlated to the strike of structures,having a good consistency with the structure.( 6)There is no significant correlation between duration of abnormities and the epicenter distance.( 7) The higher the magnitude of the earthquake,the greater the amplitude of the abnormities measured with the same observation approach.( 8) In terms of the itemsof the observations,fluid abnormities are the greatest in number,followed by deformation and electromagnetism observations.( 9) For all observation items,med and short-term abnormities make up the majority and short-term and imminent anomalies the minority.( 10) In fluid,deformation and electromagnetism observations,fairly reliable anomalies are about double the number of reliable anomalies.展开更多
On the basis of previous study results about the seismic anomaly precursor information quantity, universal and synthetic mathematical expressions that describe the precursor information quantity of various seismic ano...On the basis of previous study results about the seismic anomaly precursor information quantity, universal and synthetic mathematical expressions that describe the precursor information quantity of various seismic anomalies are further given. Starting from large amounts of data of earthquake cases, the problem of the sustained effective time of seismic anomaly was studied again and the mathematical relationship between the sustained effective time of seismic anomaly and continuing effective time of seismic anomaly was further established. About one million pieces of precursor observation data belonging to 371 items of hydrochemistry, deformation, geomagnetism, stress, water level, geoelectricity, etc. In North China region in the period of 1980～ 1997 were collected and sorted out, and the seismic anomaly precursor information quantity of these items was calculated item by item. The evolutionary characteristics of seismic anomaly precursor information field in North China region in about 20 years and their relation to earthquakes were studied; an index system for medium- and short-term predictions of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.0 in North China region was established. After having checked by the R-value scoring method, the index system for synthetic earthquake prediction was proved to be of certain efficacy in medium- and short-term earthquake prediction.展开更多
为解决近年来用户行业变化特性加剧导致的难以准确辨识用户档案信息变动的问题,文中提出一种基于数据驱动的负荷特征异常辨识方法。首先,提出一种两阶段行业典型负荷形态构建方法,利用基于层次密度的含噪声应用空间聚类(hierarchical de...为解决近年来用户行业变化特性加剧导致的难以准确辨识用户档案信息变动的问题,文中提出一种基于数据驱动的负荷特征异常辨识方法。首先,提出一种两阶段行业典型负荷形态构建方法,利用基于层次密度的含噪声应用空间聚类(hierarchical density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise,HDBSCAN)提取用户在不同场景下的典型日负荷曲线,并利用改进的K-means算法对提取出的典型日负荷曲线进行聚类分析,构建行业的典型负荷形态;其次,提出一种多维场景负荷特征异常智能研判方法,通过构造用户的负荷特征,使用熵权法评估行业典型场景的相对重要性,并采用单分类支持向量机(one-class support vector machine,OCSVM)算法量化每个场景下的用户负荷特征的异常程度,通过加权计算得到用户的综合嫌疑得分并排序,从而实现对负荷特征异常用户的准确辨识。最后,采用某地区实际用户数据进行算例验证。仿真结果表明,所提方法在行业典型负荷场景构建及负荷特征异常辨识方面表现出良好的可行性与实用价值。展开更多
Constructing a statistical model that best fits the background is a key step in geochemical anomaly identification. But the model is hard to be constructed in situations where the sample population has unknown and/or ...Constructing a statistical model that best fits the background is a key step in geochemical anomaly identification. But the model is hard to be constructed in situations where the sample population has unknown and/or complex distribution. Isolation forest is an outlier detection approach that explicitly isolates anomaly samples rather than models the population distribution. It can extract multivariate anomalies from huge-sized high-dimensional data with unknown population distribution. For this reason,we tentatively applied the method to identify multivariate anomalies from the stream sediment survey data of the Lalingzaohuo district,an area with a complex geological setting,in Qinghai Province in China. The performance of the isolation forest algorithm in anomaly identification was compared with that of a continuous restricted Boltzmann machine. The results show that the isolation forest model performs superiorly to the continuous restricted Boltzmann machine in multivariate anomaly identification in terms of receiver operating characteristic curve,area under the curve,and data-processing efficiency. The anomalies identified by the isolation forest model occupy 19% of the study area and contain 82% of the known mineral deposits,whereas the anomalies identified by the continuous restricted Boltzmann machine occupy 35% of the study area and contain 88% of the known mineral deposits. It takes 4. 07 and 279. 36 seconds respectively handling the dataset using the two models. Therefore,isolation forest is a useful anomaly detection method that can quickly extract multivariate anomalies from geochemical exploration data.展开更多
Isolation forest and elliptic envelope are used to detect geochemical anomalies,and the bat algorithm was adopted to optimize the parameters of the two models.The two bat-optimized models and their default-parameter c...Isolation forest and elliptic envelope are used to detect geochemical anomalies,and the bat algorithm was adopted to optimize the parameters of the two models.The two bat-optimized models and their default-parameter counterparts were used to detect multivariate geochemical anomalies from the stream sediment survey data of 1:50000 scale collected from the Helong district,Jilin Province,China.Based on the data modeling results,the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was performed to evaluate the performance of the two bat-optimized models and their default-parameter counterparts.The results show that the bat algorithm can improve the performance of the two models by optimizing their parameters in geochemical anomaly detection.The optimal threshold determined by the Youden index was used to identify geochemical anomalies from the geochemical data points.Compared with the anomalies detected by the elliptic envelope models,the anomalies detected by the isolation forest models have higher spatial relationship with the mineral occurrences discovered in the study area.According to the results of this study and previous work,it can be inferred that the background population of the study area is complex,which is not suitable for the establishment of elliptic envelope model.展开更多
Precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China were analyzed,with the suggestion that there are obvious interannual variation of peak values.In the raining season,the general tendency of precipi...Precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China were analyzed,with the suggestion that there are obvious interannual variation of peak values.In the raining season,the general tendency of precipitation is not obvious and the anomalous oscillation is multi-scale.Corresponding to years of more or less precipitation in the raining season,there are sharply opposite distribution across the nation in the simultaneous periods.In addition,by studying the distribution of correlation between anomalous precipitation in southern China in the first raining season and SSTA over offshore waters of China in the preceding period (June ～August of the previous year),a sensitive zone of waters has been found that has steady effect on the precipitation of southern China in the season.Discussions are also made of the sensitive period,its simultaneous SSTA and subsequent anomalous circulation field in relation to precipitation anomalies and simultaneous circulation field in the first raining season of southern China.In the last part of the work,relationship between the SSTA in the sensitive zone and global SSTA is analyzed.A possible mechanism by which SSTA in offshore Chinese waters affects the precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China is put forward.展开更多
Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of pr...Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.展开更多
With the OLR data, the landfall and activity of tropical cyclones (TC) in southern China over a 20-year period (1975～1994) are studied. The result shows that the variation of the monthly anomalous OLR is somewhat tel...With the OLR data, the landfall and activity of tropical cyclones (TC) in southern China over a 20-year period (1975～1994) are studied. The result shows that the variation of the monthly anomalous OLR is somewhat teleconnected with the TC activity in southern China. The former is used to predict short-term climate for the latter over months with frequent or no TC influence. To some extent, the relationship between the TC activity in southern China and the monthly mean OLR anomalies is dependent on the climatological location of the subtropical high in northwestern Pacific region.展开更多
基金supported by the National 973 Project of China (No. 2013CB733303)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41474093)+4 种基金the Key Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province (No. 2014CFA110)the open fund of Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education (No. 15-02-07)the China Earthquake Administration’s Earthquake Science and Technology Spark Program (No. XH15037SX)Special fund of earthquake science and technology of Yunnan Earthquake Agency (No. 2017ZX02)the Jiancheng Li Academician Workstation (No. 2015IC015)
文摘This paper presents a comprehensive area expansion prediction index method to apply GNSS for short-impending prediction of earthquakes. Based on continuous GNSS observation data from Yunnan Province, a displacement field was detected after data cycle-slip repair using precision data processing software and geophysical field effect model correction. The Yunnan area was divided into 56 grid cells for displacement field interpolation to obtain a more uniform displacement field and a strain field variation time series. The pre-earthquake response of each grid-cell expansion time series was evaluated and synthesized to extract a short-impending earthquake anomaly identification index. The results show that this index indicated occurrence times and hypocenter for earthquakes of magnitude M≥5. Fourteen earthquakes were predicted accurately, and there were five false reports. This index can therefore be used for the short-impending prediction of earthquakes.
基金sponsored by "973" Program No. 2006CB403604National Technol-ogy Support Program (2007BAC03A01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40531006 and 40576012
文摘The climatological characteristics of the moisture budget over the joining area of Asia and the IndianPacific Ocean （AIPO） and its adjacent regions as well as their anomalies have been estimated in this study. The main results are as follows. In the winter, the northeasterly moisture transport covers the extensive areas at the lower latitudes of the AIPO. The westerly and northerly moisture transport is the major source and the South Indian Ocean （SIO） is the moisture sink. In the summer, influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal wind, the crossequatorial southwesterly moisture transport across Somali originating from the SIO is transported through the Arabian Sea （AS）, the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, and the South China Sea （SCS） to eastern China. The AIPO is controlled by the southwesterly moisture transport. The net moisture influx over the AIPO has obvious interannual and interdecadal variations. From the mid- or late 1970s, the influxes over the SIO, the AS, the northern part of the western North Pacific （NWNP）, and North China （NC） as well as South China （SC） begin to decrease abruptly, while those over Northeast China （NEC） and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins （YHRB） have increased remarkably. As a whole, the net moisture influxes over the BOB and the southern part of the western North Pacific （SWNP） in the recent 50 years take on a linear increasing trend. However, the transition timing for these two regions is different with the former being at the mid- or late 1980s and the latter occurring earlier, approximately at the early stage of the 1970s. The anomalous moisture source associated with the precipitation anomalies is different from the normal conditions of the summer precipitation. For the drought or flood years or the years of E1 Nifio and its following years, the anomalous moisture transport originating from the western North Pacific （WNP） is the vital source of the anomalous precipitation over eastern China, which is greatly related with the variation of the subtropical Pacific high.
文摘The characteristics of zonal anomaly and change rule of temporal distribution of annual precipitation in the northeastern China are revealed in this paper with EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) and REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function) methods and results are drawn in the standard relief maps with GIS technology for practical application. Data used in the study were obtained from 208 meteorological stations over the northeastern China from 1961 to 2001. EOF results show that the first 3 loading vectors could give entire spatial anomaly structure of annual precipitation. In the Northeast Plain including the Songneng Plain and the Liaohe Plain, there is a regional compatibility (whether wet or dry) of annual precipitation change and this precipitation pattern has occurred since the late 1980s to the present. There also exist annual precipitation patterns of wet (or dry) in south and dry (or wet) in north and wet (or dry) in east and dry (or wet) in west. REOF results display 8 principal precipitation anomaly areas by the first 8 rotated loading vectors: the west plain, the Liaodong hills, the Sanjiang Plain, the Liaoxi hills, the Changbai Mountains, the Hulun Buir Plateau, the southwest plateau and the Liaodong Peninsula.
基金supported by a Collaborative Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China on Technical Maintenance and Data Preprocessing of the GPS Observation Array for the Qiaojia Earthquake(No.0120603)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41274079).
文摘This study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of geomagnetic anomalies before and after the 2013 Sichuan Lushan M7.0 earthquake and the Gansu Minxian M6.6 earthquake by constructing a geomagnetic diurnal variation model based on Taylor polynomial fitting,combined with midnight mean values of the geomagnetic F component from China,s geomagnetic observatory network.The results reveal distinct differences in anomaly patterns,namely per-sistent positive anomalies were observed in the epicentral region of the Lushan earthquake,while significant negative anomalies characterized the Minxian earthquake zone.This differential response reveals the modulating effect of the electrical structure of the seismogenic medium on space electromagnetic disturbances,namely positive anomalies may correspond to the stage of stable stress accumulation in intact rock,while the expansion of negative anomalies may reflect an amplification of electromagnetic disturbances induced by fracture expansion.Further analysis demonstrates that both anomalies exhibit a three-stage evolutionary pattern,namely pre-seismic accumulation,co-seismic release,and post-seismic adjustment.The phase transitions in these anomalies are closely correlated with regional tectonic stress accumulation and destabilization processes.These findings not only provide new evidence for the physical interpretation of seismomagnetic precursors but also establish a theoretical foundation for developing earthquake prediction methods based on the dynamic evolution of geomagnetic anomalies.
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China from 1951 to 2010. [Method] Based on monthly precipitation data at 44 stations of southwest China and 160 stations of China from 1951 to 2010, by using EOF analysis, wavelet analysis and composite analysis, monthly and seasonal change rules of the precipitation in southwest China were analyzed. Corresponding spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the precipitation in drought and flood years were studied. Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation anomaly in southwest China in recent 60 years were revealed. [Result] Seasonal distribution of the precipitation in southwest China was uneven and was typical single-peak type. Precipitation concentrated from May to September, and peak appeared in July. In recent years, rainfall in autumn significantly became less, while that in other seasons had no obvious change. Precipitation in summer had the cycle of 14 years, another for 6 years and 3-4 years of periodic oscillations. In wet years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in southern China, and anti-phase with that in the junction of Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang and Tibet. In dry years, precipitation in southwest China had same phase with that in the eastern part of northwest China and northern China. [Conclusion] The research provided reference basis for prediction and pre-warning of the precipitation in the zone.
文摘This paper introduces the basic parameters,focal mechanism solutions and earthquake sequence characteristics of the Kalpin M_S5.3 earthquake sequence of December 1,2013,and analyzed seismic activity before the earthquake,the adjacent tectonic features and the precursory anomaly at fixed points within a range of 200 km. Research indicates:(1) The earthquake occurred on Kalpin fault,the source rupture type is thrust faulting with sinistral strike-slip component.( 2) The earthquake sequence is mainshock-aftershock type,with the aftershock distribution attenuating quickly and trending NE.(3) Abnormal seismic activity before the earthquake was characterized by seismically nesting quiescence of MS2. 0-4. 0 earthquakes,seismic quiescence of MS4. 0 earthquakes and seismic belts of MS3. 0 earthquakes in the Kalpin block, abnormal enhancement zone of moderate earthquakes on Puchang fault and seismological parameters.(4) Anomalies of precursory observation data at fixed stations are mainly characterized by mutation. Apart from the borehole tiltmeter in Halajun, the spatial distribution of other abnormal precursors showed a phenomenon of migration from the near field to far field and from the epicenter to the peripheries.
基金funded by National Joint Foundation of Earthquake of China under Grant No.106086
文摘In this study, a number of typical precursory anomalies recorded by stations in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Hebei and Shaanxi provinces and autonomous regions before the Ms8.1 earthquake in the west of Kunlun Mountains Pass are collected and checked. According to the standards of earthquake cases in China, the criteria of the precursory anomalies are determined, and 53 distinguished. The characteristics of these anomalies before the Ms S. 1 earthquake are analyzed, with results showing a very large earthquake affected area. The precursory anomalies recorded by instruments were 2900 km away from the epicenter, and according to the study in this paper, reached 2100 km away. The results also show that the anomalies present characteristics of long duration, multi-measurement items and large-amplitude variation. The authors believe that in large earthquake monitoring, attention should be paid to the variation of data over a large area, ranging up to thousands kilometers, with much denser earthquake observation networks.
基金funded by Seismic Monitoring,Prediction and Research Project"The Application of Ultra Low Frequency Electromagnetic Observation in Yunnan and Its Adjacent Region"of China Earthquake Administration in 2010
文摘Located in an earthquake-prone region,the geological structures in Yunnan Province are complex. Taking into account that Tonghai county is located in the intersection of Xiaojiang fault and Honghe fault, an ACF-4M ELF electromagnetic instrument was installed at the Tonghai seismic station,which has produced continuous reliable data. The author collected the data and information for the year 2009 and 2010,and performed analysis on the variation characteristics of both geomagnetic fields and electrical resistivity. The result shows that the 1Hz and 39Hz electromagnetic power spectra are 0. 2 to 1. 4 orders of magnitude higher than the normal values immediately before many earthquakes. The anomalies are represented by the abrupt changes of the electric and magnetic field power spectra in earthquake and aftershock sequences,and the amplitude of change is related to the size of earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance. The electrical resistivity also obviously changes. Therefore, further research on the anomalous characteristics of ELF electromagnetic data will be meaningful to the future use of this instrument in earthquake prediction.
文摘Observations made in different superlarge\|large gold deposits in Ailaoshan gold metallogenic belts, Yunnan Province, China, on the eastern margin of the Qingzang (Himalayas—Karakoram—Tibet) were investigated. Geotectonically, the study area is situated in the conjoint between the Tethys and Himalayas tectonic domain, characterized by very complex geological structure, with strongly influenced by the Himalayas in late development.1\ Regional geology and gold deposits\;Ailaoshan gold metallogenic belts is localized between Ailaoshan super lithospheric faults and Jiujia—Anding brittle\|ductile shear zone, with NNW\|trending about 250km long. To southward, Zhenyuan supergiant gold deposits, Mojiang large gold deposits, and Daping giant gold deposits hosted in low metamorphic volcanic\|sedimentary rocks (D—C). Ore types include gold\|bearing quartz veins, gold\|bearing altered rocks, and the mixing of the two types. Most of gold orebodies took their positions in the substructures of the brittle\|ductile shear zone.
基金Foundation item: The Development Program on National Key Basic Researches under the Project Mechanism and Prediction of Continental strong Earthquakes (G1998040703)
文摘Based on the data from repeated precise leveling and across-fault deformation measurements carried out in recent 30 years and the analyzed results from GPS observations made in recent years along the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang block, and combined with the geological structures and seismic activities, some characteristics in regional tectonic deformation and strong earthquake development are studied and approached preliminarily. The results show that: a) The space-time distribution of current tectonic deformation in this area is inhomogeneous with relatively intensive tectonic deformation in the vicinity of main boundary faults and weak deformation in the farther areas. The intensity of vertical differential movement and the deformation status vary with time, and the horizontal movement and deformation are characterized by apparent compression and strike-slip. b) The tectonic stress field generated by the NE-trending continuous compressive movement of Qinghai-Xizang block due to the northward press and collision of India plate is the principal stress for the tectonic deformation and earthquake development in this area. The evolution of space-time distribution of tectonic deformation and seismicity is closely related to the block activity and dynamic evolution of regional tectonic stress field. c) The vertical deformation uplift and high-gradient deformation zones and the obvious fault deformation anomaly appeared along the boundaries of tectonic blocks can be considered as the indicators of hindered block motion and intensified tectonic stress field for strong earthquake development. Usually, the above-mentioned phenomena would be followed by the seismicity of M6.0, but the earthquake might not occur in the place with the maximum movement. The zones with the fault deformation anomaly characterized by tendencious accumulation acceleration turning and the surrounding areas might be the positions for accumulation of strain energy and development and occurrence of strong earthquakes.
基金supported financially by Science for Earthquake Resilience(XH14064Y)the open foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth's Dynamics(SKLGED2014-5-2-E)the major national science and technology support project(2012BAK19B04-05-02)
文摘This article made a systematic statistical analysis on the duration,spatial distribution,form,range,type and reliability of precursory anomalies based on the observations of precursors of 24 moderate-strong earthquakes occurring along the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone and its bilateral areas in Shandong,Liaoning,Hebei,Jiangsu and Jiangxi Provinces in the period from 1966 to 2005. Results show that:( 1) For M7. 0 and M6. 0earthquakes,med-term abnormities are the greatest in number,short-term abnormities come second,and imminent anomalies are the least. For M5. 0 earthquakes,short-term abnormities are often the most in number,imminent anomalies come second,and the med-term ones are the least.( 2) Precursory anomalies are periodical,part of the med and short-term anomalies are shown as short-term and imminent anomalies during their development.( 3) The development of precursor shows quasi-synchronism; the closer to earthquake occurrence time,the more turning changes of anomalies will appear.( 4)Anomalies mainly occur within an epicenter distance of 100 km, showing a relative concentrated distribution in space,and the shorter the distance to epicenter,the higher the anomaly station / item rate.( 5) The spatial distribution of anomalies is relatively correlated to the strike of structures,having a good consistency with the structure.( 6)There is no significant correlation between duration of abnormities and the epicenter distance.( 7) The higher the magnitude of the earthquake,the greater the amplitude of the abnormities measured with the same observation approach.( 8) In terms of the itemsof the observations,fluid abnormities are the greatest in number,followed by deformation and electromagnetism observations.( 9) For all observation items,med and short-term abnormities make up the majority and short-term and imminent anomalies the minority.( 10) In fluid,deformation and electromagnetism observations,fairly reliable anomalies are about double the number of reliable anomalies.
基金the project of "Ninth Five-year Plan" of China Seismological Bureau (95-04-01-02-02), China.
文摘On the basis of previous study results about the seismic anomaly precursor information quantity, universal and synthetic mathematical expressions that describe the precursor information quantity of various seismic anomalies are further given. Starting from large amounts of data of earthquake cases, the problem of the sustained effective time of seismic anomaly was studied again and the mathematical relationship between the sustained effective time of seismic anomaly and continuing effective time of seismic anomaly was further established. About one million pieces of precursor observation data belonging to 371 items of hydrochemistry, deformation, geomagnetism, stress, water level, geoelectricity, etc. In North China region in the period of 1980～ 1997 were collected and sorted out, and the seismic anomaly precursor information quantity of these items was calculated item by item. The evolutionary characteristics of seismic anomaly precursor information field in North China region in about 20 years and their relation to earthquakes were studied; an index system for medium- and short-term predictions of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.0 in North China region was established. After having checked by the R-value scoring method, the index system for synthetic earthquake prediction was proved to be of certain efficacy in medium- and short-term earthquake prediction.
文摘为解决近年来用户行业变化特性加剧导致的难以准确辨识用户档案信息变动的问题,文中提出一种基于数据驱动的负荷特征异常辨识方法。首先,提出一种两阶段行业典型负荷形态构建方法,利用基于层次密度的含噪声应用空间聚类(hierarchical density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise,HDBSCAN)提取用户在不同场景下的典型日负荷曲线,并利用改进的K-means算法对提取出的典型日负荷曲线进行聚类分析,构建行业的典型负荷形态;其次,提出一种多维场景负荷特征异常智能研判方法,通过构造用户的负荷特征,使用熵权法评估行业典型场景的相对重要性,并采用单分类支持向量机(one-class support vector machine,OCSVM)算法量化每个场景下的用户负荷特征的异常程度,通过加权计算得到用户的综合嫌疑得分并排序,从而实现对负荷特征异常用户的准确辨识。最后,采用某地区实际用户数据进行算例验证。仿真结果表明,所提方法在行业典型负荷场景构建及负荷特征异常辨识方面表现出良好的可行性与实用价值。
基金Supported by projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41272360,41472299,41672322)
文摘Constructing a statistical model that best fits the background is a key step in geochemical anomaly identification. But the model is hard to be constructed in situations where the sample population has unknown and/or complex distribution. Isolation forest is an outlier detection approach that explicitly isolates anomaly samples rather than models the population distribution. It can extract multivariate anomalies from huge-sized high-dimensional data with unknown population distribution. For this reason,we tentatively applied the method to identify multivariate anomalies from the stream sediment survey data of the Lalingzaohuo district,an area with a complex geological setting,in Qinghai Province in China. The performance of the isolation forest algorithm in anomaly identification was compared with that of a continuous restricted Boltzmann machine. The results show that the isolation forest model performs superiorly to the continuous restricted Boltzmann machine in multivariate anomaly identification in terms of receiver operating characteristic curve,area under the curve,and data-processing efficiency. The anomalies identified by the isolation forest model occupy 19% of the study area and contain 82% of the known mineral deposits,whereas the anomalies identified by the continuous restricted Boltzmann machine occupy 35% of the study area and contain 88% of the known mineral deposits. It takes 4. 07 and 279. 36 seconds respectively handling the dataset using the two models. Therefore,isolation forest is a useful anomaly detection method that can quickly extract multivariate anomalies from geochemical exploration data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41672322,41872244)。
文摘Isolation forest and elliptic envelope are used to detect geochemical anomalies,and the bat algorithm was adopted to optimize the parameters of the two models.The two bat-optimized models and their default-parameter counterparts were used to detect multivariate geochemical anomalies from the stream sediment survey data of 1:50000 scale collected from the Helong district,Jilin Province,China.Based on the data modeling results,the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was performed to evaluate the performance of the two bat-optimized models and their default-parameter counterparts.The results show that the bat algorithm can improve the performance of the two models by optimizing their parameters in geochemical anomaly detection.The optimal threshold determined by the Youden index was used to identify geochemical anomalies from the geochemical data points.Compared with the anomalies detected by the elliptic envelope models,the anomalies detected by the isolation forest models have higher spatial relationship with the mineral occurrences discovered in the study area.According to the results of this study and previous work,it can be inferred that the background population of the study area is complex,which is not suitable for the establishment of elliptic envelope model.
文摘Precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China were analyzed,with the suggestion that there are obvious interannual variation of peak values.In the raining season,the general tendency of precipitation is not obvious and the anomalous oscillation is multi-scale.Corresponding to years of more or less precipitation in the raining season,there are sharply opposite distribution across the nation in the simultaneous periods.In addition,by studying the distribution of correlation between anomalous precipitation in southern China in the first raining season and SSTA over offshore waters of China in the preceding period (June ～August of the previous year),a sensitive zone of waters has been found that has steady effect on the precipitation of southern China in the season.Discussions are also made of the sensitive period,its simultaneous SSTA and subsequent anomalous circulation field in relation to precipitation anomalies and simultaneous circulation field in the first raining season of southern China.In the last part of the work,relationship between the SSTA in the sensitive zone and global SSTA is analyzed.A possible mechanism by which SSTA in offshore Chinese waters affects the precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China is put forward.
文摘Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.
基金Foundation for the"Application of OLR data in tropical weather"as part of a short-termscientific research project under the Science and Education Department of the China Meteorological Administration'96。
文摘With the OLR data, the landfall and activity of tropical cyclones (TC) in southern China over a 20-year period (1975～1994) are studied. The result shows that the variation of the monthly anomalous OLR is somewhat teleconnected with the TC activity in southern China. The former is used to predict short-term climate for the latter over months with frequent or no TC influence. To some extent, the relationship between the TC activity in southern China and the monthly mean OLR anomalies is dependent on the climatological location of the subtropical high in northwestern Pacific region.
