In this paper,we establish some strong laws of large numbers,which are for nonindependent random variables under the framework of sublinear expectations.One of our main results is for blockwise m-dependent random vari...In this paper,we establish some strong laws of large numbers,which are for nonindependent random variables under the framework of sublinear expectations.One of our main results is for blockwise m-dependent random variables,and another is for sub-orthogonal random variables.Both extend the strong law of large numbers for independent random variables under sublinear expectations to the non-independent case.展开更多
BACKGROUND The six-minute walk test(6MWT)allows to determine,in addition to the main parameters,the time of heart rate recovery(THRR),cardiac function,adaptation index(AI),which characterize the compensatory reserve o...BACKGROUND The six-minute walk test(6MWT)allows to determine,in addition to the main parameters,the time of heart rate recovery(THRR),cardiac function,adaptation index(AI),which characterize the compensatory reserve of patients with chronic heart failure(CHF).At the same time,the significance of these parameters in patients taking beta-blockers for CHF is insufficiently studied,taking into account the negative chronotropic effect of drugs.In this regard,it is relevant to identify factors that can characterize the compensatory capabilities of a patient with CHF during 6MWT,not related to the calculation of heart rate.AIM To identify hemodynamic indicators of the adaptive capabilities of patients with CHF during paired 6MWT depending on their intake of beta-blockers.METHODS Seventy-four patients with compensated CHF due to coronary heart disease and/or hypertension formed the main group,comprising 46 individuals who were taking beta-blockers,and a comparison group comprising 28 individuals who had not been taking beta-blockers for at least one month before 6MWT.All participants underwent Doppler echocardiography(DECG),paired 6MWT,with assessment of hemodynamic parameters before and after both the first and second test.AI,THRR,blood pressure variability(BPV)were calculated.Multivariate,correlation analyses,univariate analysis of variance were used.RESULTS There were no significant associations between adaptation characteristics and DECG parameters or functional class(FC)of CHF in patients of the main group.In the comparison group,the indicators of compensatory reserve were significantly and directly associated with left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF),and inversely with FC CHF and cardiac cavity size.In both groups,a greater difference in systolic blood pressure between the end of the first and the beginning of the second 6MWT was significantly associated with a higher index of right ventricular systolic dysfunction(Tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion)and LVEF,as well as a smaller left ventricular size and mass,and a lower pulmonary artery systolic pressure in patients in the main group.CONCLUSION Systolic BPV,measured immediately after 6MWT and 20 minutes after its completion,can indirectly characterize the compensatory reserve in patients with CHF,regardless of their beta-blocker intake.展开更多
In this paper,we consider the fourth-order parabolic equation with p(x)Laplacian and variable exponent source ut+∆^(2)u−div(|■u|^(p(x)−2■u))=|u|^(q(x))−1u.By applying potential well method,we obtain global existence...In this paper,we consider the fourth-order parabolic equation with p(x)Laplacian and variable exponent source ut+∆^(2)u−div(|■u|^(p(x)−2■u))=|u|^(q(x))−1u.By applying potential well method,we obtain global existence,asymptotic behavior and blow-up of solutions with initial energy J(u_(0))≤d.Moreover,we estimate the upper bound of the blow-up time for J(u_(0))≤0.展开更多
The highly dynamic nature,strong uncertainty,and coupled multiple safety constraints inherent in carrier aircraft recovery operations pose severe challenges for real-time decision-making.Addressing bolter scenarios,th...The highly dynamic nature,strong uncertainty,and coupled multiple safety constraints inherent in carrier aircraft recovery operations pose severe challenges for real-time decision-making.Addressing bolter scenarios,this study proposes an intelligent decision-making framework based on a deep long short-term memory Q-network.This framework transforms the real-time sequencing for bolter recovery problem into a partially observable Markov decision process.It employs a stacked long shortterm memory network to accurately capture the long-range temporal dependencies of bolter event chains and fuel consumption.Furthermore,it integrates a prioritized experience replay training mechanism to construct a safe and adaptive scheduling system capable of millisecond-level real-time decision-making.Experimental demonstrates that,within large-scale mass recovery scenarios,the framework achieves zero safety violations in static environments and maintains a fuel safety violation rate below 10%in dynamic scenarios,with single-step decision times at the millisecond level.The model exhibits strong generalization capability,effectively responding to unforeseen emergent situations—such as multiple bolters and fuel emergencies—without requiring retraining.This provides robust support for efficient carrier-based aircraft recovery operations.展开更多
Tree growth variability is a key determinant of forest stabilities.Previous studies have shown that recent climate change has increased variability in tree growth,while others have challenged this viewpoint,leading to...Tree growth variability is a key determinant of forest stabilities.Previous studies have shown that recent climate change has increased variability in tree growth,while others have challenged this viewpoint,leading to ongoing debate in this field.Moreover,gaps remain in understanding the climatic mechanisms driving increased tree growth variability,particularly for species simultaneously limited by multiple climate factors.In this study,we assessed the temporal trends in variability of Picea purpurea radial growth and its linkage with growth-climate sensitivity utilizing dendrochronological methods.Our results revealed a significant increase in P.purpurea radial growth variability from 1960 to 2020,as indicated by continuous rises in the standard deviation,coefficient of variation,and mean sensitivity of tree-ring width indices.The increased frequency of extreme growth declines further supported this finding.Furthermore,moisture condition in July was identified as a key limiting factor of P.purpurea growth.Notably,the strengthening relationship between tree-ring width indices and vapor pressure deficit(VPD)suggests that the moisture sensitivity for P.purpurea growth has increased over the period 1960-2020.This enhanced sensitivity to VPD,whose interannual variability has also increased synchronously,may have contributed to the rise in P.purpurea growth variability.Additionally,the maximum temperature in May was positively correlated with P.purpurea growth;however,there is little evidence that this factor contributed to the observed increase in growth variability.These findings provide new insights into P.purpurea growth trends and improve our understanding of the potential future impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems.展开更多
As a vital food crop,rice is an important part of global food crops.Studying the spatiotemporal changes in rice cultivation facilitates early prediction of production risks and provides support for agricultural policy...As a vital food crop,rice is an important part of global food crops.Studying the spatiotemporal changes in rice cultivation facilitates early prediction of production risks and provides support for agricultural policy decisions related to rice.With the increasing application of satellite remote sensing technology in crop monitoring,remote sensing for rice cultivation has emerged as a novel approach,offering new perspectives for monitoring rice planting.This paper briefly outlined the current research and development status of satellite remote sensing for monitoring rice cultivation both at home and abroad.Foreign scholars have made innovations in data sources and methodologies for satellite remote sensing monitoring,and utilized multi-source satellite information and machine learning algorithms to enhance the accuracy of rice planting monitoring.Scholars in China have achieved significant results in the study of satellite remote sensing for monitoring rice cultivation.Their research and application in monitoring rice planting areas provide valuable references for agricultural production management.However,satellite remote sensing monitoring of rice still faces challenges such as low spatiotemporal resolution and difficulties related to cloud cover and data fusion,which require further in-depth investigation.Additionally,there are shortcomings in the accuracy of remote sensing monitoring for fragmented farmland plots and smallholder farming.To address these issues,future efforts should focus on developing multi-source heterogeneous data fusion analysis technologies and researching monitoring systems.These advancements are expected to enable high-precision large-scale acquisition of rice planting information,laying a foundation for future smart agriculture.展开更多
Thermal-mechanical damage and deformation at the interface between shotcrete linings and the surrounding rock of tunnels under high-temperature and variable-temperature conditions are critical to the safe construction...Thermal-mechanical damage and deformation at the interface between shotcrete linings and the surrounding rock of tunnels under high-temperature and variable-temperature conditions are critical to the safe construction and operation of tunnel engineering.This study investigated the thermo-mechanical damage behavior of the composite interface between alkali-resistant glass fiber-reinforced concrete(ARGFRC)and granite,focusing on a plateau railway tunnel.Laboratory triaxial tests,laser scanning,XRD analysis,numerical simulations,and theoretical analyses were employed to investigate how different initial curing temperatures and joint roughness coefficient(JRC)influence interfacial damage behavior.The results indicate that an increase in interface roughness exacerbates the structural damage at the interface.At a JRC of 19.9 and a temperature of 70℃,crack initiation in granite was notably restrained when the confining pressure rose from 7 MPa to 10 MPa.Roughness-induced stress distribution at the interface was notably altered,although this effect became less pronounced under high confining pressure conditions.Additionally,during high-temperature curing,thermal stress concentration at the tips of micro-convex protrusions on the granite surface induced microcracks in the adjacent ARGFRC matrix,followed by deformation.These findings provide practical guidelines for designing concrete support systems to ensure tunnel structural safety in high-altitude regions with harsh thermal environments.展开更多
Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial fe...Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.展开更多
Energy shortage has become one of themost concerning issues in the world today,and improving energy utilization efficiency is a key area of research for experts and scholars worldwide.Small-diameter heat exchangers of...Energy shortage has become one of themost concerning issues in the world today,and improving energy utilization efficiency is a key area of research for experts and scholars worldwide.Small-diameter heat exchangers offer advantages such as reduced material usage,lower refrigerant charge,and compact structure.However,they also face challenges,including increased refrigerant pressure drop and smaller heat transfer area inside the tubes.This paper combines the advantages and disadvantages of both small and large-diameter tubes and proposes a combined-diameter heat exchanger,consisting of large and small diameters,for use in the indoor units of split-type air conditioners.There are relatively few studies in this area.In this paper,A theoretical and numerical computation method is employed to establish a theoretical-numerical calculation model,and its reliability is verified through experiments.Using this model,the optimal combined diameters and flow path design for a combined-diameter heat exchanger using R32 as the working fluid are derived.The results show that the heat transfer performance of all combined diameter configurations improves by 2.79%to 8.26%compared to the baseline design,with the coefficient of performance(COP)increasing from 4.15 to 4.27~4.5.These designs can save copper material,but at the cost of an increase in pressure drop by 66.86%to 131.84%.The scheme IIIH,using R32,is the optimal combined-diameter and flow path configuration that balances both heat transfer performance and economic cost.展开更多
Tuberculosis(TB),one of the oldest infectious diseases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis,poses a considerable challenge to global public health.There are approximately 10 million new TB cases worldwide annually,and...Tuberculosis(TB),one of the oldest infectious diseases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis,poses a considerable challenge to global public health.There are approximately 10 million new TB cases worldwide annually,and TB claims the lives of nearly 3 million people each year,making it one of the leading causes of death from a single infectious disease[1].China ranks third globally in terms of TB burden,with approximately 733,000 TB cases reported in 2023[2].Based on the ecological model of health determinants developed by Whitehead and Dahlgren,health determinants can be classified into direct causes.展开更多
The aim of this study was to understand the characteristics of blood pressure （BP） variability in subjects with diabetic nephropathy （DN）, and identify the probable predictors affecting BP variability. Fifty-one c...The aim of this study was to understand the characteristics of blood pressure （BP） variability in subjects with diabetic nephropathy （DN）, and identify the probable predictors affecting BP variability. Fifty-one chronic kidney disease （CKD）-hypertensive patients without diabetes （NDN group） and sixty type 2 diabetic patients with overt DN （DN group） were enrolled in this study. The values of short-term BP variability were obtained from 24 h ambulatory BP monitoring （ABPM）. Variance analysis or nonparametric analysis revealed that 24-h systolic BP variability and night- time systolic BP variability of the DN group were significantly higher than those of the NDN group [（12.23±3.66） vs. （10.74±3.83） mmHg, P〈0.05; （11.23±4.82） vs. （9.48±3.69） mmHg, P〈0.05]. Then the patients of the DN group were divided into two groups according to glycated hemoglobin （HbAlc） level： Group A （HbA1c〈7%） and Group B （HbA1c〉7%）, and the t-test showed that patients in Group B had larger 24-h diastolic, daytime diastolic, and nighttime systolic/diastolic BP variability compared with Group A. In the DN group, partial correlation analysis revealed that HbAlc exhibited a strong association with 24-h diastolic, daytime diastolic, nighttime systolic and diastolic BP vari- ability （P〈0.001, P〈0.001, P〈0.05, and P〈0.001, respectively）. Taken together, larger short-term BP variability was detected in hypertensive type 2 diabetic patients with overt nephropathy and renal insufficiency. It may imply that the optimal BP variability level could benefit from a better glycaemic control.展开更多
A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nu...A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean（NEMO）, and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model（CICE）. The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1（NESM1）. Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model＇s major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model＇s assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring–fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific（CP）-ENSO and eastern Pacific（EP）-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability,biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）, and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version（T159） demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon–ENSO lead–lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.展开更多
A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and d...A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and dynamical model outputs.Both predictands and predictors were first decomposed into interannual and decadal components.Two predictive equations were then built separately for the two distinct timescales by using multivariate linear regressions based on independent sample validation.For the interannual timescale,850-hPa meridional wind and 500-hPa geopotential heights from multiple dynamical models＇ hindcasts and SSTs from observational datasets were used to construct predictors.For the decadal timescale,two well-known basin-scale SST decadal oscillation （the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation） indices were used as predictors.Then,the downscaled predictands were combined to represent the predicted/hindcasted total rainfall.The prediction was compared with the models＇ raw hindcasts and those from a similar approach but without timescale decomposition.In comparison to hindcasts from individual models or their multi-model ensemble mean,the skill of the present scheme was found to be significantly higher,with anomaly correlation coefficients increasing from nearly neutral to over 0.4 and with RMSE decreasing by up to 0.6 mm d-1.The improvements were also seen in the station-based temporal correlation of the predictions with observed rainfall,with the coefficients ranging from-0.1 to 0.87,obviously higher than the models＇ raw hindcasted rainfall results.Thus,the present approach exhibits a great advantage and may be appropriate for use in operational predictions.展开更多
The Boreal forest is a terrestrial ecosystem highly vulnerable to the impacts of short-term climate and weather variabilities. Detecting abrupt, rapid climate-induced changes in fire weather and related changes in fir...The Boreal forest is a terrestrial ecosystem highly vulnerable to the impacts of short-term climate and weather variabilities. Detecting abrupt, rapid climate-induced changes in fire weather and related changes in fire seasonality can provide important insights to assessing impacts of climate change on forestry. This paper, taking the Sakha Republic of Russia as study area, aims to suggest an approach for detecting signals indicating climate-induced changes in fire weather to express recent fire weather variability by using short-term ranks of major meteorological parameters such as air temperature and atmospheric precipitation. Climate data from the “Global Summary of the Day Product” of NOAA (the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) for 1996 to 2018 were used to investigate meteorological parameters that drive fire activity. The detection of the climate change signals is made through a 4-step analysis. First, we used descriptive statistics to grasp monthly, annual, seasonal and peak fire period characteristics of fire weather. Then we computed historical normals for WMO reference period, 1961-1990, and the most recent 30-year period for comparison with the current means. The variability of fire weather is analyzed using standard deviation, coefficient of variation, percentage departures from historical normals, percentage departures from the mean, and precipitation concentration index. Inconsistency and abrupt changes in the evolution of fire weather are assessed using homogeneity analysis whilst a Mann-Kendall test is used to detect significant trends in the time series. The results indicate a significant increase of temperature during spring and fall months, which extends the fire season and potentially contributes to increase of burned areas. We again detected a significant rainfall shortage in September which extended the fire season. Furthermore, this study suggests a new approach in statistical methods appropriate for the detection of climate change signals on fire weather variability using short-term climate ranks and evaluation of its impact on fire seasonality and activity.展开更多
Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into...Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.展开更多
An internal state variable(ISV)model was established according to the experimental results of hot plane strain compression(PSC)to predict the microstructure evolution during hot spinning of ZK61 alloy.The effects of t...An internal state variable(ISV)model was established according to the experimental results of hot plane strain compression(PSC)to predict the microstructure evolution during hot spinning of ZK61 alloy.The effects of the internal variables were considered in this ISV model,and the parameters were optimized by genetic algorithm.After validation,the ISV model was used to simulate the evolution of grain size(GS)and dynamic recrystallization(DRX)fraction during hot spinning via Abaqus and its subroutine Vumat.By comparing the simulated results with the experimental results,the application of the ISV model was proven to be reliable.Meanwhile,the strength of the thin-walled spun ZK61 tube increased from 303 to 334 MPa due to grain refinement by DRX and texture strengthening.Besides,some ultrafine grains(0.5μm)that played an important role in mechanical properties were formed due to the proliferation,movement,and entanglement of dislocations during the spinning process.展开更多
Responding to the stochasticity and uncertainty in the power height of distributed photovoltaic power generation.This paper presents a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term power forecasting method based on Variat...Responding to the stochasticity and uncertainty in the power height of distributed photovoltaic power generation.This paper presents a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term power forecasting method based on Variational Mode Decomposition(VMD)and Channel Attention Mechanism.First,Pearson’s correlation coefficient was utilized to filter out the meteorological factors that had a high impact on historical power.Second,the distributed PV power data were decomposed into a relatively smooth power series with different fluctuation patterns using variational modal decomposition(VMD).Finally,the reconstructed distributed PV power as well as other features are input into the combined CNN-SENet-BiLSTM model.In this model,the convolutional neural network(CNN)and channel attention mechanism dynamically adjust the weights while capturing the spatial features of the input data to improve the discriminative ability of key features.The extracted data is then fed into the bidirectional long short-term memory network(BiLSTM)to capture the time-series features,and the final output is the prediction result.The verification is conducted using a dataset from a distributed photovoltaic power station in the Northwest region of China.The results show that compared with other prediction methods,the method proposed in this paper has a higher prediction accuracy,which helps to improve the proportion of distributed PV access to the grid,and can guarantee the safe and stable operation of the power grid.展开更多
In order to solve the problem of the variable coefficient ordinary differen-tial equation on the bounded domain,the Lagrange interpolation method is used to approximate the exact solution of the equation,and the error...In order to solve the problem of the variable coefficient ordinary differen-tial equation on the bounded domain,the Lagrange interpolation method is used to approximate the exact solution of the equation,and the error between the numerical solution and the exact solution is obtained,and then compared with the error formed by the difference method,it is concluded that the Lagrange interpolation method is more effective in solving the variable coefficient ordinary differential equation.展开更多
As a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system,Antarctic sea ice has demonstrated significant variability over the satellite era.Here,we identify a remarkable decadal transition in the total Antarctic Sea Ice E...As a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system,Antarctic sea ice has demonstrated significant variability over the satellite era.Here,we identify a remarkable decadal transition in the total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent(SIE).The stage from 1979 to 2006 is characterized by high-frequency(i.e.,seasonal to interannual)temporal variability in SIE and zonal asymmetry in Sea Ice Concentration(SIC),which is primarily under the control of the Amundsen Sea Low(ASL).After 2007,however,sea ice changes exhibit a more spatially homogeneous pattern in SIC and a more temporally long-lasting mode in SIE.Further analysis reveals that sea ice-ocean interaction plays a major role in the low-frequency(i.e.,multiannual)variability of Antarctic sea ice from 2007−22.The related physical process is inferred to manifest as a strong coupling between the surface and the subsurface ocean layers,involving enhanced vertical convection and the downward delivery of the surface anomalies related to ice melting and freezing processes,thus maintaining the SIE anomalies for a longer time.Furthermore,this process mainly occurs in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea(ABS)sector,and the weakened subsurface ocean stratification is the key factor triggering the coupling process in this region.We find that the Circumpolar Deep Water(CDW)over the ABS sector continued to shoal before 2007 and remained stable thereafter.It is speculated that the shoaling of the CDW may be a possible driver leading to the weakening of the subsurface stratification.展开更多
El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation an...El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further investigation.To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models.The results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future.The higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in variability.Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature.This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.展开更多
文摘In this paper,we establish some strong laws of large numbers,which are for nonindependent random variables under the framework of sublinear expectations.One of our main results is for blockwise m-dependent random variables,and another is for sub-orthogonal random variables.Both extend the strong law of large numbers for independent random variables under sublinear expectations to the non-independent case.
基金Supported by Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation titled Development of a Hardware-Software Complex for the Non-Invasive Monitoring and Prediction of Circulatory Decompensation in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure,No.125030703255-7.
文摘BACKGROUND The six-minute walk test(6MWT)allows to determine,in addition to the main parameters,the time of heart rate recovery(THRR),cardiac function,adaptation index(AI),which characterize the compensatory reserve of patients with chronic heart failure(CHF).At the same time,the significance of these parameters in patients taking beta-blockers for CHF is insufficiently studied,taking into account the negative chronotropic effect of drugs.In this regard,it is relevant to identify factors that can characterize the compensatory capabilities of a patient with CHF during 6MWT,not related to the calculation of heart rate.AIM To identify hemodynamic indicators of the adaptive capabilities of patients with CHF during paired 6MWT depending on their intake of beta-blockers.METHODS Seventy-four patients with compensated CHF due to coronary heart disease and/or hypertension formed the main group,comprising 46 individuals who were taking beta-blockers,and a comparison group comprising 28 individuals who had not been taking beta-blockers for at least one month before 6MWT.All participants underwent Doppler echocardiography(DECG),paired 6MWT,with assessment of hemodynamic parameters before and after both the first and second test.AI,THRR,blood pressure variability(BPV)were calculated.Multivariate,correlation analyses,univariate analysis of variance were used.RESULTS There were no significant associations between adaptation characteristics and DECG parameters or functional class(FC)of CHF in patients of the main group.In the comparison group,the indicators of compensatory reserve were significantly and directly associated with left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF),and inversely with FC CHF and cardiac cavity size.In both groups,a greater difference in systolic blood pressure between the end of the first and the beginning of the second 6MWT was significantly associated with a higher index of right ventricular systolic dysfunction(Tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion)and LVEF,as well as a smaller left ventricular size and mass,and a lower pulmonary artery systolic pressure in patients in the main group.CONCLUSION Systolic BPV,measured immediately after 6MWT and 20 minutes after its completion,can indirectly characterize the compensatory reserve in patients with CHF,regardless of their beta-blocker intake.
基金Supported by NSFC(No.12101482)the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province,China(No.2018JQ1052)。
文摘In this paper,we consider the fourth-order parabolic equation with p(x)Laplacian and variable exponent source ut+∆^(2)u−div(|■u|^(p(x)−2■u))=|u|^(q(x))−1u.By applying potential well method,we obtain global existence,asymptotic behavior and blow-up of solutions with initial energy J(u_(0))≤d.Moreover,we estimate the upper bound of the blow-up time for J(u_(0))≤0.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62403486)。
文摘The highly dynamic nature,strong uncertainty,and coupled multiple safety constraints inherent in carrier aircraft recovery operations pose severe challenges for real-time decision-making.Addressing bolter scenarios,this study proposes an intelligent decision-making framework based on a deep long short-term memory Q-network.This framework transforms the real-time sequencing for bolter recovery problem into a partially observable Markov decision process.It employs a stacked long shortterm memory network to accurately capture the long-range temporal dependencies of bolter event chains and fuel consumption.Furthermore,it integrates a prioritized experience replay training mechanism to construct a safe and adaptive scheduling system capable of millisecond-level real-time decision-making.Experimental demonstrates that,within large-scale mass recovery scenarios,the framework achieves zero safety violations in static environments and maintains a fuel safety violation rate below 10%in dynamic scenarios,with single-step decision times at the millisecond level.The model exhibits strong generalization capability,effectively responding to unforeseen emergent situations—such as multiple bolters and fuel emergencies—without requiring retraining.This provides robust support for efficient carrier-based aircraft recovery operations.
基金funded by the Science and Technology Program of Gansu Province(25JRRA487)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42101072)the Key Research and Development Program of Gansu Province(22YF7FA029).
文摘Tree growth variability is a key determinant of forest stabilities.Previous studies have shown that recent climate change has increased variability in tree growth,while others have challenged this viewpoint,leading to ongoing debate in this field.Moreover,gaps remain in understanding the climatic mechanisms driving increased tree growth variability,particularly for species simultaneously limited by multiple climate factors.In this study,we assessed the temporal trends in variability of Picea purpurea radial growth and its linkage with growth-climate sensitivity utilizing dendrochronological methods.Our results revealed a significant increase in P.purpurea radial growth variability from 1960 to 2020,as indicated by continuous rises in the standard deviation,coefficient of variation,and mean sensitivity of tree-ring width indices.The increased frequency of extreme growth declines further supported this finding.Furthermore,moisture condition in July was identified as a key limiting factor of P.purpurea growth.Notably,the strengthening relationship between tree-ring width indices and vapor pressure deficit(VPD)suggests that the moisture sensitivity for P.purpurea growth has increased over the period 1960-2020.This enhanced sensitivity to VPD,whose interannual variability has also increased synchronously,may have contributed to the rise in P.purpurea growth variability.Additionally,the maximum temperature in May was positively correlated with P.purpurea growth;however,there is little evidence that this factor contributed to the observed increase in growth variability.These findings provide new insights into P.purpurea growth trends and improve our understanding of the potential future impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems.
基金Supported by Natural Science Foundation General Project of Heilongjiang Province(C2018050).
文摘As a vital food crop,rice is an important part of global food crops.Studying the spatiotemporal changes in rice cultivation facilitates early prediction of production risks and provides support for agricultural policy decisions related to rice.With the increasing application of satellite remote sensing technology in crop monitoring,remote sensing for rice cultivation has emerged as a novel approach,offering new perspectives for monitoring rice planting.This paper briefly outlined the current research and development status of satellite remote sensing for monitoring rice cultivation both at home and abroad.Foreign scholars have made innovations in data sources and methodologies for satellite remote sensing monitoring,and utilized multi-source satellite information and machine learning algorithms to enhance the accuracy of rice planting monitoring.Scholars in China have achieved significant results in the study of satellite remote sensing for monitoring rice cultivation.Their research and application in monitoring rice planting areas provide valuable references for agricultural production management.However,satellite remote sensing monitoring of rice still faces challenges such as low spatiotemporal resolution and difficulties related to cloud cover and data fusion,which require further in-depth investigation.Additionally,there are shortcomings in the accuracy of remote sensing monitoring for fragmented farmland plots and smallholder farming.To address these issues,future efforts should focus on developing multi-source heterogeneous data fusion analysis technologies and researching monitoring systems.These advancements are expected to enable high-precision large-scale acquisition of rice planting information,laying a foundation for future smart agriculture.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52209130 and 52379100)Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.ZR2024ME112).
文摘Thermal-mechanical damage and deformation at the interface between shotcrete linings and the surrounding rock of tunnels under high-temperature and variable-temperature conditions are critical to the safe construction and operation of tunnel engineering.This study investigated the thermo-mechanical damage behavior of the composite interface between alkali-resistant glass fiber-reinforced concrete(ARGFRC)and granite,focusing on a plateau railway tunnel.Laboratory triaxial tests,laser scanning,XRD analysis,numerical simulations,and theoretical analyses were employed to investigate how different initial curing temperatures and joint roughness coefficient(JRC)influence interfacial damage behavior.The results indicate that an increase in interface roughness exacerbates the structural damage at the interface.At a JRC of 19.9 and a temperature of 70℃,crack initiation in granite was notably restrained when the confining pressure rose from 7 MPa to 10 MPa.Roughness-induced stress distribution at the interface was notably altered,although this effect became less pronounced under high confining pressure conditions.Additionally,during high-temperature curing,thermal stress concentration at the tips of micro-convex protrusions on the granite surface induced microcracks in the adjacent ARGFRC matrix,followed by deformation.These findings provide practical guidelines for designing concrete support systems to ensure tunnel structural safety in high-altitude regions with harsh thermal environments.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program Project(2023YFC3107804)Planning Fund Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education(24YJA880097)the Graduate Education Reform Project in North China University of Technology(217051360025XN095-17)。
文摘Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.
基金supported by Supported by the Scientific Research Foundation for High-Level Talents of Zhoukou Normal University(ZKNUC2024018).
文摘Energy shortage has become one of themost concerning issues in the world today,and improving energy utilization efficiency is a key area of research for experts and scholars worldwide.Small-diameter heat exchangers offer advantages such as reduced material usage,lower refrigerant charge,and compact structure.However,they also face challenges,including increased refrigerant pressure drop and smaller heat transfer area inside the tubes.This paper combines the advantages and disadvantages of both small and large-diameter tubes and proposes a combined-diameter heat exchanger,consisting of large and small diameters,for use in the indoor units of split-type air conditioners.There are relatively few studies in this area.In this paper,A theoretical and numerical computation method is employed to establish a theoretical-numerical calculation model,and its reliability is verified through experiments.Using this model,the optimal combined diameters and flow path design for a combined-diameter heat exchanger using R32 as the working fluid are derived.The results show that the heat transfer performance of all combined diameter configurations improves by 2.79%to 8.26%compared to the baseline design,with the coefficient of performance(COP)increasing from 4.15 to 4.27~4.5.These designs can save copper material,but at the cost of an increase in pressure drop by 66.86%to 131.84%.The scheme IIIH,using R32,is the optimal combined-diameter and flow path configuration that balances both heat transfer performance and economic cost.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82574173,82003516)Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Foundation(BK20251958)+2 种基金Jiangsu Provincial Medical Key Discipline(ZDXK202250)Top Talent Awards Project Fund(RDF-TP-0023,RDF-TP-0030)Postgraduate Research Fund(PGRS2112022)at Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University.
文摘Tuberculosis(TB),one of the oldest infectious diseases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis,poses a considerable challenge to global public health.There are approximately 10 million new TB cases worldwide annually,and TB claims the lives of nearly 3 million people each year,making it one of the leading causes of death from a single infectious disease[1].China ranks third globally in terms of TB burden,with approximately 733,000 TB cases reported in 2023[2].Based on the ecological model of health determinants developed by Whitehead and Dahlgren,health determinants can be classified into direct causes.
基金Project (Nos.2011SZ0215 and 2012SZ0027) supported by the Science and Technology Research Projects of Sichuan Province,China
文摘The aim of this study was to understand the characteristics of blood pressure （BP） variability in subjects with diabetic nephropathy （DN）, and identify the probable predictors affecting BP variability. Fifty-one chronic kidney disease （CKD）-hypertensive patients without diabetes （NDN group） and sixty type 2 diabetic patients with overt DN （DN group） were enrolled in this study. The values of short-term BP variability were obtained from 24 h ambulatory BP monitoring （ABPM）. Variance analysis or nonparametric analysis revealed that 24-h systolic BP variability and night- time systolic BP variability of the DN group were significantly higher than those of the NDN group [（12.23±3.66） vs. （10.74±3.83） mmHg, P〈0.05; （11.23±4.82） vs. （9.48±3.69） mmHg, P〈0.05]. Then the patients of the DN group were divided into two groups according to glycated hemoglobin （HbAlc） level： Group A （HbA1c〈7%） and Group B （HbA1c〉7%）, and the t-test showed that patients in Group B had larger 24-h diastolic, daytime diastolic, and nighttime systolic/diastolic BP variability compared with Group A. In the DN group, partial correlation analysis revealed that HbAlc exhibited a strong association with 24-h diastolic, daytime diastolic, nighttime systolic and diastolic BP vari- ability （P〈0.001, P〈0.001, P〈0.05, and P〈0.001, respectively）. Taken together, larger short-term BP variability was detected in hypertensive type 2 diabetic patients with overt nephropathy and renal insufficiency. It may imply that the optimal BP variability level could benefit from a better glycaemic control.
基金supported by the Research Innovation Program for college graduates of Jiangsu Province (CXLX13 487)
文摘A coupled earth system model（ESM） has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（NUIST） by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model（ECHAM）, version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean（NEMO）, and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model（CICE）. The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1（NESM1）. Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model＇s major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model＇s assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring–fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific（CP）-ENSO and eastern Pacific（EP）-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability,biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden–Julian Oscillation（MJO）, and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version（T159） demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon–ENSO lead–lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.
基金supported by the Special Program in the Public Interest of the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY201006022)the Strategic Special Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05090000)
文摘A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and dynamical model outputs.Both predictands and predictors were first decomposed into interannual and decadal components.Two predictive equations were then built separately for the two distinct timescales by using multivariate linear regressions based on independent sample validation.For the interannual timescale,850-hPa meridional wind and 500-hPa geopotential heights from multiple dynamical models＇ hindcasts and SSTs from observational datasets were used to construct predictors.For the decadal timescale,two well-known basin-scale SST decadal oscillation （the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation） indices were used as predictors.Then,the downscaled predictands were combined to represent the predicted/hindcasted total rainfall.The prediction was compared with the models＇ raw hindcasts and those from a similar approach but without timescale decomposition.In comparison to hindcasts from individual models or their multi-model ensemble mean,the skill of the present scheme was found to be significantly higher,with anomaly correlation coefficients increasing from nearly neutral to over 0.4 and with RMSE decreasing by up to 0.6 mm d-1.The improvements were also seen in the station-based temporal correlation of the predictions with observed rainfall,with the coefficients ranging from-0.1 to 0.87,obviously higher than the models＇ raw hindcasted rainfall results.Thus,the present approach exhibits a great advantage and may be appropriate for use in operational predictions.
文摘The Boreal forest is a terrestrial ecosystem highly vulnerable to the impacts of short-term climate and weather variabilities. Detecting abrupt, rapid climate-induced changes in fire weather and related changes in fire seasonality can provide important insights to assessing impacts of climate change on forestry. This paper, taking the Sakha Republic of Russia as study area, aims to suggest an approach for detecting signals indicating climate-induced changes in fire weather to express recent fire weather variability by using short-term ranks of major meteorological parameters such as air temperature and atmospheric precipitation. Climate data from the “Global Summary of the Day Product” of NOAA (the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) for 1996 to 2018 were used to investigate meteorological parameters that drive fire activity. The detection of the climate change signals is made through a 4-step analysis. First, we used descriptive statistics to grasp monthly, annual, seasonal and peak fire period characteristics of fire weather. Then we computed historical normals for WMO reference period, 1961-1990, and the most recent 30-year period for comparison with the current means. The variability of fire weather is analyzed using standard deviation, coefficient of variation, percentage departures from historical normals, percentage departures from the mean, and precipitation concentration index. Inconsistency and abrupt changes in the evolution of fire weather are assessed using homogeneity analysis whilst a Mann-Kendall test is used to detect significant trends in the time series. The results indicate a significant increase of temperature during spring and fall months, which extends the fire season and potentially contributes to increase of burned areas. We again detected a significant rainfall shortage in September which extended the fire season. Furthermore, this study suggests a new approach in statistical methods appropriate for the detection of climate change signals on fire weather variability using short-term climate ranks and evaluation of its impact on fire seasonality and activity.
文摘Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51905123)Major Scientific and Technological Innovation Program of Shandong Province,China(Nos.2020CXGC010303,2022ZLGX04)Key R&D Programme of Shandong Province,China(No.2022JMRH0308).
文摘An internal state variable(ISV)model was established according to the experimental results of hot plane strain compression(PSC)to predict the microstructure evolution during hot spinning of ZK61 alloy.The effects of the internal variables were considered in this ISV model,and the parameters were optimized by genetic algorithm.After validation,the ISV model was used to simulate the evolution of grain size(GS)and dynamic recrystallization(DRX)fraction during hot spinning via Abaqus and its subroutine Vumat.By comparing the simulated results with the experimental results,the application of the ISV model was proven to be reliable.Meanwhile,the strength of the thin-walled spun ZK61 tube increased from 303 to 334 MPa due to grain refinement by DRX and texture strengthening.Besides,some ultrafine grains(0.5μm)that played an important role in mechanical properties were formed due to the proliferation,movement,and entanglement of dislocations during the spinning process.
基金supported by the Inner Mongolia Power Company 2024 Staff Innovation Studio Innovation Project“Research on Cluster Output Prediction and Group Control Technology for County-Wide Distributed Photovoltaic Construction”.
文摘Responding to the stochasticity and uncertainty in the power height of distributed photovoltaic power generation.This paper presents a distributed photovoltaic ultra-short-term power forecasting method based on Variational Mode Decomposition(VMD)and Channel Attention Mechanism.First,Pearson’s correlation coefficient was utilized to filter out the meteorological factors that had a high impact on historical power.Second,the distributed PV power data were decomposed into a relatively smooth power series with different fluctuation patterns using variational modal decomposition(VMD).Finally,the reconstructed distributed PV power as well as other features are input into the combined CNN-SENet-BiLSTM model.In this model,the convolutional neural network(CNN)and channel attention mechanism dynamically adjust the weights while capturing the spatial features of the input data to improve the discriminative ability of key features.The extracted data is then fed into the bidirectional long short-term memory network(BiLSTM)to capture the time-series features,and the final output is the prediction result.The verification is conducted using a dataset from a distributed photovoltaic power station in the Northwest region of China.The results show that compared with other prediction methods,the method proposed in this paper has a higher prediction accuracy,which helps to improve the proportion of distributed PV access to the grid,and can guarantee the safe and stable operation of the power grid.
文摘In order to solve the problem of the variable coefficient ordinary differen-tial equation on the bounded domain,the Lagrange interpolation method is used to approximate the exact solution of the equation,and the error between the numerical solution and the exact solution is obtained,and then compared with the error formed by the difference method,it is concluded that the Lagrange interpolation method is more effective in solving the variable coefficient ordinary differential equation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation China(Grant No.42176222).
文摘As a crucial component of the Earth’s climate system,Antarctic sea ice has demonstrated significant variability over the satellite era.Here,we identify a remarkable decadal transition in the total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent(SIE).The stage from 1979 to 2006 is characterized by high-frequency(i.e.,seasonal to interannual)temporal variability in SIE and zonal asymmetry in Sea Ice Concentration(SIC),which is primarily under the control of the Amundsen Sea Low(ASL).After 2007,however,sea ice changes exhibit a more spatially homogeneous pattern in SIC and a more temporally long-lasting mode in SIE.Further analysis reveals that sea ice-ocean interaction plays a major role in the low-frequency(i.e.,multiannual)variability of Antarctic sea ice from 2007−22.The related physical process is inferred to manifest as a strong coupling between the surface and the subsurface ocean layers,involving enhanced vertical convection and the downward delivery of the surface anomalies related to ice melting and freezing processes,thus maintaining the SIE anomalies for a longer time.Furthermore,this process mainly occurs in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea(ABS)sector,and the weakened subsurface ocean stratification is the key factor triggering the coupling process in this region.We find that the Circumpolar Deep Water(CDW)over the ABS sector continued to shoal before 2007 and remained stable thereafter.It is speculated that the shoaling of the CDW may be a possible driver leading to the weakening of the subsurface stratification.
基金jointly supported by projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42141017 and 41975112]。
文摘El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further investigation.To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models.The results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future.The higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in variability.Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature.This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.
