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Feel Seating System
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《新潮电子》 2005年第11期127-127,共1页
我们不知道应该用什么样的名词来为Feel Seating System起名,床?沙发?躺椅?……它好像什么都是,却又什么都不是,这个由120只花花绿绿的软织物球所构成的东西,可以由你随心所欲地将它变成各种各样的坐具或卧具,抑或是偶尔当成一... 我们不知道应该用什么样的名词来为Feel Seating System起名,床?沙发?躺椅?……它好像什么都是,却又什么都不是,这个由120只花花绿绿的软织物球所构成的东西,可以由你随心所欲地将它变成各种各样的坐具或卧具,抑或是偶尔当成一床被子或睡袋来使用都没问题。 展开更多
关键词 坐具 卧具 FEEL seating SYSTEM 软织物球
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Wooden Structures within the Context of Parametric Design: Pavilions and Seatings in Urban Landscape
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作者 Gokcen Firdevs Yucel Caymaz Seyhan Yardimli +1 位作者 Bulent Onur Turan Aysel Tarim 《Journal of Architectural Research and Development》 2018年第3期34-54,共21页
Today,on the one hand,while the traditional design process continues,on the other hand,digital design systems along with advances in computer technologies continue to present designers with new and effective ideas.Par... Today,on the one hand,while the traditional design process continues,on the other hand,digital design systems along with advances in computer technologies continue to present designers with new and effective ideas.Parametric design is preferred by designers for its relationality,contributing toward versatility,ensuring flexibility,simplifying diversification,and for presenting programmatic solutions.As is seen in a number of areas,we have also begun to encounter the use of parametric designs produced with parametric design systems and wooden materials in urban landscaping.The purpose of this study is to examine the upper cover application and seating elements generated by taking advantage of parametric designs from wooden construction materials in urban landscaping areas,and examine the impact of wooden material characteristics while generating behavior and parametric structures of technologies.After researching parametric design and wooden material concepts,an attempt was made to reach conclusions through analyses conducted by examining parametric wooden designed pavilion and seating element specimens applied in various regions of the world. 展开更多
关键词 parametric design wooden structures PAVILION seating MATERIALITY
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Design and Implementation of Library Seating Management System
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作者 Pengxian Liu 《Journal of Computer and Communications》 2024年第8期292-306,共15页
The library seating management system is an important part of the library’s modern services. The system is based on the Spring and Spring Boot framework, and the system realizes a series of functions such as real-tim... The library seating management system is an important part of the library’s modern services. The system is based on the Spring and Spring Boot framework, and the system realizes a series of functions such as real-time query, reservation, and cancellation of seat resources, providing users with great convenience. With a simple operation, users can know the availability of seats in the library in real time and reserve them according to their needs. At the same time, the system also provides rich management functions, enabling administrators to easily configure and manage seat resources. The addition, deletion, modification and review of users, the generation of seats, the viewing of user usage records, and the addition or deletion of points for users’ usage can also be carried out. This not only improves the management efficiency, but also provides more scientific and accurate data support for the management of the library. The system not only optimizes the user experience, but also promotes the scientific management and efficient utilization of library resources, and provides strong support for the modern services of the library. 展开更多
关键词 LIBRARY Seats Management System Design Management Efficiency SPRING
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IDENTIFYING OCCUPANTS’APPROPRIATE SEATING POSITION AND VIEW DIRECTION IN OFFICE BUILDINGS:A STOCHASTIC SHADE CONTROL BASED MULTI-OBJECTIVE VISUAL COMFORT OPTIMIZATION
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作者 Jian Yao 《Journal of Green Building》 2020年第1期15-36,共22页
Manually operated solar shades have a significant impact on indoor visual comfort.This research investigates occupants’appropriate seating position and view direction in a west-facing office cell using a previously d... Manually operated solar shades have a significant impact on indoor visual comfort.This research investigates occupants’appropriate seating position and view direction in a west-facing office cell using a previously developed shade behavior model.The non-dominant sorting genetic algorithm(NSGA-II)based Multi-objective optimization was adopted to identify the optimal and near optimal solutions.Daylight and glare index were used as two visual comfort objectives for optimization and robustness of optimization results against shade behavior uncertainty that was analyzed using statistical analysis.Results show that near optimal solutions can be used instead of the optimal one since they provide more flexibility in seating positions while maintaining almost the same visual comfort performance.And thus,the appropriate seating position considering occupants’preference is 1.5m away from the external window with two view directions near parallel to the window for west-facing office rooms. 展开更多
关键词 manual solar shades occupant behavior visual comfort Multi-objective optimization seating position
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Parametric design for the valve seat of a high-temperature and high-pressure valve inside wind tunnels 被引量:1
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作者 Fengwei HOU Haifeng SHU +4 位作者 Binbin WU Chengliang YU Zhehui MA Wenqing LI Jinyuan QIAN 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 2025年第3期266-276,共11页
A high-temperature and high-pressure valve is the key equipment of a wind tunnel system;it controls the generation of high-temperature and high-pressure gas.To reduce the adverse impact of high-temperature and high-pr... A high-temperature and high-pressure valve is the key equipment of a wind tunnel system;it controls the generation of high-temperature and high-pressure gas.To reduce the adverse impact of high-temperature and high-pressure gas on the strength of the valve body,a cooling structure is set on the valve seat.This can significantly reduce the temperature of the valve body and valve seat.The effects of its structure on the cooling characteristics and stress of the valve seat are studied,and six main parameters that can completely describe the geometry of the cooling structure are proposed.The central composite design method is used to select sample points,and the multi-objective genetic algorithm(MOGA)method is used for optimal structural design.A modification method according to the main parameters for the valve seat is proposed.The results show that the cooling structure weakens the pressure-bearing capability of the valve seat.Among the six main parameters of the valve seat,the distance from the end face of the lower hole to the Z-axis and the distance from the axis of the lower hole to the origin of the coordinates have the most obvious effects on the average stress of the valve seat.An optimum design value is proposed.This work can provide a reference for the design of high-temperature and high-pressure valves. 展开更多
关键词 Control valve Valve seat OPTIMIZATION Parametric design
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Trajectory analysis and flight modeling of combat aircrafts ejection seats
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作者 Ercan BASTUG Nadir SERIN Faruk ELALDI 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 2025年第2期175-184,共10页
In this study,it is aimed to develop a generic model which calculates the trajectory of the ejection seat from the jet aircraft,by taking into account the parameters that will affect the seat movement such as the seat... In this study,it is aimed to develop a generic model which calculates the trajectory of the ejection seat from the jet aircraft,by taking into account the parameters that will affect the seat movement such as the seat’s launch speed,ejection direction,ejection angle,altitude of the aircraft,distance/height from the aircraft rudder and canopy,pilot and ejection seat weight.With the model algorithm proposed,the ejection seat trajectory model was developed on MATLAB.The ejection seat trajectory model is based on point mass trajectory mathematical model.In this study,an analytical study of the problem has been made for modeling the flight trajectory of the ejection seat after it has been ejected.Past studies were used as a basis for validation and simulation.By writing a generic MATLAB code,a user interface was developed and presented to the user as a module.This generic code that has been developed could be used for simulations by users in the future by revising it in accordance with their own job descriptions. 展开更多
关键词 Ejection seat Ejection seat trajectory Point mass trajectory model Parachute opening times Aerodynamic coefficients
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Melioidosis in kidney transplant recipients:A report of two cases
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作者 Chilaka Rajesh Jessica Vaddeswarapu +8 位作者 Utkarash Mishra Jeethu Joseph Eapen Athul Thomas Elenjickal Elias John Anna T Valson Suceena Alexander Vinoi George David Joy Sarojini Michael Santosh Varughese 《Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine》 2025年第4期181-184,共4页
Rationale:Melioidosis is a serious opportunistic infection caused by Burkholderia(B.)pseudomallei,primarily affecting immunocompromised individuals,particularly in endemic regions.Timely diagnosis and appropriate trea... Rationale:Melioidosis is a serious opportunistic infection caused by Burkholderia(B.)pseudomallei,primarily affecting immunocompromised individuals,particularly in endemic regions.Timely diagnosis and appropriate treatment are crucial to prevent fatal outcomes.Patient concerns:Case 1 was a 34-year-old male kidney transplant recipient who presented with a 15-day history of intermittent fever,accompanied by liver and spleen abscesses.Case 2 was a 37-year-old female kidney transplant recipient who presented with acute febrile illness and developed leucopenia.Blood cultures for both patients grew B.pseudomallei.Diagnosis:Both patients were diagnosed with melioidosis caused by B.pseudomallei,with the diagnosis confirmed through pus culture from the liver abscess in Case 1 and blood culture in Case 2.Interventions:Both patients were treated with an intensive regimen of meropenem(renal-adjusted doses),followed by a 3-month course of oral cotrimoxazole for eradication therapy.Outcomes:Case 1 experienced resolution of liver and spleen abscesses after 3 months of treatment and continued to recover well.In Case 2,blood cultures became sterile after 4 weeks,with no further complications observed.Lessons:Melioidosis should be suspected in immunocompromised patients,especially kidney transplant recipients,who present with unexplained fever and sepsis-like symptoms.Early diagnosis through aspiration of abscesses and prompt treatment are critical for preventing relapses and improving patient outcomes. 展开更多
关键词 Kidney transplant MELIOIDOSIS Deep seated abscess Disseminated infection MEROPENEM COTRIMOXAZOLE
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Dynamic Modeling of the Three-Dimensional Seated Human Body for High-Speed Train Ride Comfort Analysis
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作者 Hanwen Xu Xinbiao Xiao +4 位作者 Xiaoqing Dong Jian Han Peng Chen Qin Hu Xuesong Jin 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 2025年第5期478-507,共30页
Typically,seat or floor acceleration is used to evaluate the ride comfort of a high-speed train.However,the dynamic performance of the human body significantly differs from that of the floor.Therefore,using the car bo... Typically,seat or floor acceleration is used to evaluate the ride comfort of a high-speed train.However,the dynamic performance of the human body significantly differs from that of the floor.Therefore,using the car body floor and seat accelerations to calculate the ride comfort index of a high-speed train may not reflect the true feelings of passengers.In this study,a 3D human-seat-vehicle-track coupling model was established to investigate the ride comfort of highspeed train passengers.The seated human model,which considers the longitudinal,lateral,vertical,pitching,yawing,and rolling motions,comprises the head,upper torso,lower torso,pelvis,thighs,and shanks.The model parameters were determined using multi-axis excitation measurement data based on a genetic algorithm.Subsequently,the applicability of the small-angle assumption and natural modes of the human model is analyzed.Using the coupling system model,the vibration characteristics of the human-seat interaction surface were analyzed.The ride comfort of the high-speed train and human body dynamic performance were analyzed under normal conditions,track geometric irregularities and train meeting conditions.The results showed that the passenger seats in the front and rear rows adjacent to the window had a higher acceleration value than the others.The human backrest and seat pad connection points have higher vibration amplitudes than the car body floor in the human-sensitive frequency range,indicating that using the acceleration values on the floor may underestimate the discomfort of passengers.The ride comfort of high-speed trains diminishes in the presence of track geometric irregularities and when trains pass each other.When the excitation frequency of track geometry irregularities approached the natural frequency of the human-seat-vehicle system,ride comfort in high-speed trains decreased significantly.Moreover,using seat acceleration to evaluate passenger ride comfort overlooks the vibration characteristics of the human body.The transient aerodynamic force generated when the train meets can cause a larger car body roll and lateral motion at 2 Hz,which,in turn,decreases the passenger ride comfort.This study presents a detailed human-seat-vehicle-track coupling system that can reflect a passenger’s dynamic performance under complex operating conditions. 展开更多
关键词 Seated human body High-speed train Ride comfort 3D Human body-seat-vehicle-track coupling coupled model
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“营改增”的影响效应研究——以上海市的改革试点为例 被引量:82
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作者 吴金光 欧阳玲 段中元 《财经问题研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第2期81-86,共6页
本文选取上海市的交通运输业、通讯业和建筑业与地方财政收入相关的24个序列,利用TRAMO/SEATS方法对"营改增"结构性减税政策效应进行实证检验。结果表明,"营改增"对交通运输业发展的促进作用在短期来看有限,"... 本文选取上海市的交通运输业、通讯业和建筑业与地方财政收入相关的24个序列,利用TRAMO/SEATS方法对"营改增"结构性减税政策效应进行实证检验。结果表明,"营改增"对交通运输业发展的促进作用在短期来看有限,"营改增"对通讯业和建筑业的改革红利预期较低,说明本轮较窄范围内的试点改革对产业发展的影响效应还未充分显现。最后,以分析结论为基础,就今后"营改增"的实施路径提出相关的政策建议。 展开更多
关键词 “营改增” 地方财政收入 上海市 TRAMO SEATS方法
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居民消费价格指数季节调整实证研究 被引量:76
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作者 张鸣芳 项燕霞 齐东军 《财经研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2004年第3期133-144,共12页
文章首先对居民消费价格指数季节调整的原因、季节调整方法的发展过程和应用进行了说明,着重介绍了国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA和TRAMO/SEATS季节调整方法,然后用X-12-ARIMA方法对上海市居民消费价格指数序列进行季节调整、分析和预测,... 文章首先对居民消费价格指数季节调整的原因、季节调整方法的发展过程和应用进行了说明,着重介绍了国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA和TRAMO/SEATS季节调整方法,然后用X-12-ARIMA方法对上海市居民消费价格指数序列进行季节调整、分析和预测,并结合使用TRAMO/SEATS方法解决中国与国外明显不同的春节假日因素的调整问题,最后提出我国季节调整面临的问题。 展开更多
关键词 居民消费价格指数 季节调整 X-12 ARIMA TRAMO/SEATS
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季节调整方法综述及比较 被引量:53
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作者 范维 张磊 石刚 《统计研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第2期70-73,共4页
Seasonal adjustment has been widely used in statistic analyses.Nowadays,the research on seasonal adjustment methods mainly concentrates on X-11,X-12 etc in China,lacking the whole understanding of foreign seasonal adj... Seasonal adjustment has been widely used in statistic analyses.Nowadays,the research on seasonal adjustment methods mainly concentrates on X-11,X-12 etc in China,lacking the whole understanding of foreign seasonal adjustment methods,and the latest progress of seasonal adjustment methods has been less introduced.In this article,various seasonal adjustment methods were introduced,and a comparison of their characteristics and applications was made.It is helpful that statistical organizations can develop appropriate seasonal adjustment methods,concerning different kinds of data. 展开更多
关键词 季节调整 X-11 X-11-ARIMA X-12-ARIMA TRAMO/SEATS 结构时间序列模型
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盐城麋鹿生态旅游区游客变化特征及预测 被引量:17
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作者 黄震方 袁林旺 俞肇元 《地理学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2007年第12期1277-1286,共10页
生态旅游区的发展受到诸多确定性因素和随机性因素的共同作用,并反映于旅游区游客观测序列。通过构建游客序列分析框架,提出了游客序列分析的理论模型。并以江苏盐城麋鹿生态旅游区为例,集成多种数学方法,进行了游客序列的分解、调整和... 生态旅游区的发展受到诸多确定性因素和随机性因素的共同作用,并反映于旅游区游客观测序列。通过构建游客序列分析框架,提出了游客序列分析的理论模型。并以江苏盐城麋鹿生态旅游区为例,集成多种数学方法,进行了游客序列的分解、调整和综合预测的实证分析。运用Tramo/Seats方法进行季节调整分析可有效提取时间序列各组分,从而获得了不同尺度的作用模式,所获得的去噪序列为预测研究提供了基础资料。基于ARIMA模型、Winter加法模型、Winter乘法模型和Tramo/Seats模型的综合预测表明,麋鹿生态旅游区未来两年年平均新增游客数量在1.95-3.14万人次之间。各方法预测结果间的差异与其建模思路及实现方法有关,因此集成多种方法进行预测,并进行对比分析,有助于获得对游客波动变化更为全面的认识,同时所提供的多种可能预测方案,可为生态旅游区容量控制、旅游环境资源的保护与开发及旅游区的管理决策提供参考依据。 展开更多
关键词 游客预测 Tramo/Seats模型 ARIMA模型 Winters模型 盐城麋鹿生态旅游区
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居民消费价格指数的季节调整及短期预测 被引量:14
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作者 刘颖 陈辉 杜丹燕 《统计与决策》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第4期12-14,共3页
文章首先论述了季节调整方法的发展过程;然后把居民消费价格指数的同比数据转换为定基比数据,运用国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA程序对我国居民消费价格指数时间序列进行季节调整;再运用TRAMO/SEATS方法剔除中国特有的春节假日因素;最后对... 文章首先论述了季节调整方法的发展过程;然后把居民消费价格指数的同比数据转换为定基比数据,运用国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA程序对我国居民消费价格指数时间序列进行季节调整;再运用TRAMO/SEATS方法剔除中国特有的春节假日因素;最后对CPI进行短期预测,得出了我国的通货膨胀可能还会持续一段时间的结论。 展开更多
关键词 CPI 季节调整 X-12-ARIMA TRAMO/SEATS 短期预测
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基于ARIMA模型的春节因素调整方法研究 被引量:9
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作者 郭志武 蒲继红 滕国召 《中国卫生统计》 CSCD 北大核心 2009年第6期573-576,579,共5页
目的研究基于ARIMA模型的春节因素调整方法。方法构建通用的春节因素变量,将其作为回归变量纳入季节性ARIMA回归模型(regARIMA或TRAMO),采用AIC或BIC对模型的效果进行判断,确定最优模型。采用广义最小二乘法或最大似然法进行参数估计,... 目的研究基于ARIMA模型的春节因素调整方法。方法构建通用的春节因素变量,将其作为回归变量纳入季节性ARIMA回归模型(regARIMA或TRAMO),采用AIC或BIC对模型的效果进行判断,确定最优模型。采用广义最小二乘法或最大似然法进行参数估计,并根据估计出的回归系数计算春节因素的影响程度。通过实例分析对上述方法进行实证。结果实例分析表明,引入春节因素变量后的季节调整方法能有效地消除春节因素对时间序列的影响,并能定量分析春节因素的影响程度。结论构建的春节因素变量具有较好的适用性,基于ARIMA模型的春节因素调整方法能有效地运用于时间序列的季节调整,为分析春节因素的影响提供了一种新的方法。 展开更多
关键词 春节因素 季节调整 X-12-ARIMA TRAMO/SEATS
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危机事件对中国入境旅游外汇收入影响评估 被引量:25
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作者 桂文林 韩兆洲 《旅游学刊》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第12期28-36,共9页
近些年,公共危机事件越发频繁和严重,对其准确评估对旅游业管理至关重要。文章用TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型,将月度数据时间序列分解成趋势、季节和不规则波动,对旅游本底趋势线进行改进,并对危机事件造成中国2003年1月至2008年12月间的... 近些年,公共危机事件越发频繁和严重,对其准确评估对旅游业管理至关重要。文章用TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型,将月度数据时间序列分解成趋势、季节和不规则波动,对旅游本底趋势线进行改进,并对危机事件造成中国2003年1月至2008年12月间的入境旅游外汇收入的损失进行评估,重点对2003年SARS所造成的巨大损失进行评估。结果显示:①模型对数据的拟合效果非常好,数据具有显著的趋势和季节特征,改进旅游本底线更合理。②2003年SARS共造成中国入境旅游外汇收入损失31.519亿美元,95%置信度的区间估计为[29.387,33.652],以往研究低估了损失。③2003年4~6月危机全面爆发并达鼎盛,2003年7~10月为危机的衰退期,2003年11月~2004年1月为危机的消亡期,此次危机持续了10个月。 展开更多
关键词 TRAMO/SEATS模型 旅游本底线 旅游外汇收入 危机事件
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房产税改革实施效果的数据检验 被引量:5
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作者 马理 娄田田 段中元 《经济经纬》 CSSCI 北大核心 2015年第1期137-142,共6页
笔者以沪、渝两地为例,选取了土地购置面积等8类37个指标,运用TRAMO/SEATS的统计技术,实证检验了房产税改革的政策效果。结果表明,房产税改革对调节房地产市场的供需结构有一定的影响,上海在不同户型的供给比例、重庆在总量供给的节奏... 笔者以沪、渝两地为例,选取了土地购置面积等8类37个指标,运用TRAMO/SEATS的统计技术,实证检验了房产税改革的政策效果。结果表明,房产税改革对调节房地产市场的供需结构有一定的影响,上海在不同户型的供给比例、重庆在总量供给的节奏上有所响应,但房产税并没有对调整房价上涨产生有效的影响,说明房产税还需与相应措施一起使用,才能起到更好的政策效果。 展开更多
关键词 房产税 政策效果 TRAMO检验 SEATS预测
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季节调整本底线与SARS对我国铁路客运量的影响 被引量:5
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作者 桂文林 韩兆洲 《铁道学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2011年第9期10-18,共9页
危机事件频繁发生会造成巨大经济损失,对其进行科学评估关系国家安全和灾后重建,具有重要意义。本文首先用TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型,将月度时间序列数据分解成趋势-循环、季节和不规则因素,再根据异常值类型等对本底趋势线理论予以改进... 危机事件频繁发生会造成巨大经济损失,对其进行科学评估关系国家安全和灾后重建,具有重要意义。本文首先用TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型,将月度时间序列数据分解成趋势-循环、季节和不规则因素,再根据异常值类型等对本底趋势线理论予以改进,最后对危机事件造成的经济损失进行定量评估。以我国2000年1月至2010年2月铁路客运为例,2003年SARS所造成铁路客运量的损失评估为重点。结果表明,模型通过各项检验,对铁路客运量的拟合和分解效果非常好;根据SARS造成的更新异常值,改进的本底趋势线更科学;SARS共造成铁路客运量损失1.4654亿人次,以往研究中的损失评估偏低;2003年3~4月危机开始显现,5~6月危机全面爆发并达到巅峰,7~11月是衰减和恢复期,SARS危机对铁路客运量的影响持续9个月。 展开更多
关键词 TRAMO/SEATS模型 本底线理论 铁路运输 非典型性肺炎
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Simulation of the Interaction between Driver and Seat 被引量:16
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作者 DU Xiaoming REN Jindong +1 位作者 SANG Chunlei LI Lemeng 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2013年第6期1234-1242,共9页
Test is one of methods to acquire human-seat pressure distribution in driving, with the deficiency of being uneasy to obtain the stress information of soft tissue inside human body and the sheer force of interface bet... Test is one of methods to acquire human-seat pressure distribution in driving, with the deficiency of being uneasy to obtain the stress information of soft tissue inside human body and the sheer force of interface between human and seat, which can be obtained by simulation. But current simulation method focuses mainly on calculation itself other than combining it with posture prediction and cab packaging parameters, which cause it difficult to acquire accurate pressure calculation results without accurate posture of human body, and make it almost meaningless to design optimization. Therefore, a human body geometric model with posture change capability is built and linked up with Cascade Prediction Model(CPM), which takes cab packaging parameters as inputs. A detailed finite element model of driver human body is constructed and used to conduct the driver-seat interaction simulation between human body and seat. Good accordance of pressure distribution is observed between simulation and test, which validates the simulation. In addition to the distribution pattern, curves on key sections are used to analyze the pressure and shear stress on the seat surface, as well as soft tissue stress inside human body. The simulation shows that the maximum stress of buttocks locates under the ischial tuberosity, and the maximum stress of trunk occurs near the scapula posterior and the lower waist. These are the places where fatigue usually occurs. The maximum pressure of seat appears at the driver-seat contact area corresponding to the driver's maximum skin tissue stress. In order to guide the seat design and cab packaging and study the influence of posture to pressure distribution, finite element models for different levels of cab packaging parameters are created by using CPM. The pressure distributions are calculated and their tendencies varying with cab packaging parameters are obtained. The method presented provides a new way to accurately simulate the interaction between driver human body and seat, and to guide the seat design and cab packaging so as to improve seating comfort. 展开更多
关键词 seating comfort pressure distribution posture prediction model packaging parameters
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TRAMO/SEATS在危机事件中对旅游影响研究的应用 被引量:33
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作者 朱明芳 刘思敏 《旅游学刊》 CSSCI 北大核心 2007年第6期69-74,共6页
国内外对旅游危机事件的研究集中于管理方面,近年相关热点转向对旅游影响的研究。以往定性研究多,从经济数量模型进行定量分析研究的较少。本文使用在经济金融领域使用广泛的ARIMA改进版——TRAMO/SEATS方法评估危机事件,如疾病、地震... 国内外对旅游危机事件的研究集中于管理方面,近年相关热点转向对旅游影响的研究。以往定性研究多,从经济数量模型进行定量分析研究的较少。本文使用在经济金融领域使用广泛的ARIMA改进版——TRAMO/SEATS方法评估危机事件,如疾病、地震等突发事件对中国旅游业的影响。作为欧盟各国统计局主要统计方法,TRAMO/SEATS方法能够最大程度地反映旅游业季节性波动的特点。通过该方法对2003年在中国内地和香港地区爆发的SARS进行实证研究,分析评估该危机事件的长期影响。在此基础上提出,国家短期内应当通过提高产品质量和拓展高质量的细分市场实现旅游效益型增长;恢复后期才可以推出更为直接的促销手法实现旅游数量型增长,采取刺激旅游人数快速增长的政策和措施。 展开更多
关键词 危机事件 旅游 TRAMO/SEATS模型
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基于季节调整模型的我国铁路客运量波动分析 被引量:5
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作者 桂文林 韩兆洲 《铁道运输与经济》 北大核心 2011年第2期78-82,共5页
在研究TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型计算方法的基础上,基于我国铁路2002年1月—2010年2月的客运量月度数据,应用Demetra软件,通过季节调整模型参数设置、模型的估计和检验,得到2010年3月—2012年2月的铁路客运量预测值,并对预测结果进行趋... 在研究TRAMO/SEATS季节调整模型计算方法的基础上,基于我国铁路2002年1月—2010年2月的客运量月度数据,应用Demetra软件,通过季节调整模型参数设置、模型的估计和检验,得到2010年3月—2012年2月的铁路客运量预测值,并对预测结果进行趋势性和季节性分析。研究结果表明,Tramo/Seats季节调整模型的预测精度较高。 展开更多
关键词 铁路 TRAMO/SEATS模型 季节调整 客运量
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