BACKGROUND Chronic liver disease is a growing global health problem,leading to hepatic decompensation characterized by an array of clinical and biochemical complic-ations.Several scoring systems have been introduced i...BACKGROUND Chronic liver disease is a growing global health problem,leading to hepatic decompensation characterized by an array of clinical and biochemical complic-ations.Several scoring systems have been introduced in assessing the severity of hepatic decompensation with the most frequent ones are Child-Pugh score,model of end-stage liver disease(MELD)score,and MELD-Na score.Anemia is frequently observed in cirrhotic patients and is linked to worsened clinical outcomes.Although studies have explored anemia in liver disease,few have investigated the correlation of hemoglobin level with the severity of hepatic decompensation.AIM To determine the relationship between hemoglobin levels and the severity of decompensated liver disease and comparing the strength of this correlation using the Child-Pugh,MELD,and MELD-Na scores.METHODS This cross-sectional study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital with 652 decompensated liver disease patients enrolled in the study.Data was collected on demographics,clinical history,and laboratory findings,including hemoglobin levels,bilirubin,albumin,prothrombin time(international normalized ratio),sodium,and creatinine.The Child-Pugh,MELD,and MELD-Na scores were calculated.Statistical analysis was performed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 26,and correlations between hemoglobin levels and severity scores were assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient.RESULTS The study included 405 males(62.1%)and 247 females(37.9%)with an average age of 58.8 years.Significant inverse correlations were found between hemoglobin levels and Child-Pugh,MELD,and MELD-Na scores(P<0.01),with the MELD scoring system being the strongest correlator among all.One-way analysis of variance revealed significant differences in hemoglobin levels across the severity groups of each scoring system(P=0.001).Tukey's post hoc analysis confirmed significant internal differences among each severity group.CONCLUSION Understanding the correlation between hemoglobin and liver disease severity can improve patient management by offering insights into prognosis and guiding treatment decisions.展开更多
BACKGROUND Clinical predictors of dengue fever are crucial for guiding timely management and avoiding life-threatening complications.While prognostic scores are available,a systematic evaluation of these tools is lack...BACKGROUND Clinical predictors of dengue fever are crucial for guiding timely management and avoiding life-threatening complications.While prognostic scores are available,a systematic evaluation of these tools is lacking.AIM To evaluate the performance and accuracy of various proposed dengue clinical prognostic scores.METHODS Three databases,PubMed,EMBASE and Cochrane,were searched for peer-reviewed studies published from inception to 4 September 2023.Studies either developing or validating a prognostic model relevant to dengue fever were included.A total of 29 studies(n=17910)were included.RESULTS Most commonly studied outcomes were severe dengue(15 models)and mortality(8 models).For the paediatric population,Bedside Dengue Severity Score by Gayathri et al(specificity=0.98)and the nomogram model by Nguyen et al(sensitivity=0.87)performed better.For the adult population,the most specific model was reported by Leo et al(specificity=0.98).The most sensitive score is shared between Warning Signs for Severe Dengue as reported by Leo et al and Model 2 by Lee et al(sensitivity=1.00).CONCLUSION While several models demonstrated precision and reliability in predicting severe dengue and mortality,broader application across diverse geographic settings is needed to assess their external validity.展开更多
Background Biomarkers-based prediction of long-term risk of acute coronary syndrome(ACS)is scarce.We aim to develop a risk score integrating clinical routine information(C)and plasma biomarkers(B)for predicting long-t...Background Biomarkers-based prediction of long-term risk of acute coronary syndrome(ACS)is scarce.We aim to develop a risk score integrating clinical routine information(C)and plasma biomarkers(B)for predicting long-term risk of ACS patients.Methods We included 2729 ACS patients from the OCEA(Observation of cardiovascular events in ACS patients).The earlier admitted 1910 patients were enrolled as development cohort;and the subsequently admitted 819 subjects were treated as valida-tion cohort.We investigated 10-year risk of cardiovascular(CV)death,myocardial infarction(MI)and all cause death in these pa-tients.Potential variables contributing to risk of clinical events were assessed using Cox regression models and a score was de-rived using main part of these variables.Results During 16,110 person-years of follow-up,there were 238 CV death/MI in the development cohort.The 7 most import-ant predictors including in the final model were NT-proBNP,D-dimer,GDF-15,peripheral artery disease(PAD),Fibrinogen,ST-segment elevated MI(STEMI),left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF),termed as CB-ACS score.C-index of the score for predica-tion of cardiovascular events was 0.79(95%CI:0.76-0.82)in development cohort and 0.77(95%CI:0.76-0.78)in the validation co-hort(5832 person-years of follow-up),which outperformed GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS risk score.The CB-ACS score was also well calibrated in development and validation cohort(Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino:P=0.70 and P=0.07,respectively).Conclusions CB-ACS risk score provides a useful tool for long-term prediction of CV events in patients with ACS.This model outperforms GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS ischemic risk score.展开更多
BACKGROUND Previous studies have reported the high predictive accuracy of 4C Mortality Score derived at hospital admission in coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)patients.Very few studies have assessed it at intensive c...BACKGROUND Previous studies have reported the high predictive accuracy of 4C Mortality Score derived at hospital admission in coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)patients.Very few studies have assessed it at intensive care unit(ICU)admission and compared it with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)II score.There are no studies comparing its accuracy with APACHE III score.AIM To describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to ICU with COVID-19 infection and to compare the accuracy of 4C score and APACHE score in predicting mortality in these patients.METHODS We conducted this retrospective cohort study using an electronic database in a tertiary ICU in Sydney.We included all adult patients(age>16 years)admitted to ICU with COVID-19 infection over a 5-month period(July 1,2021 to November 30,2021).We collected the data on demographics,clinical characteristics,interventions and outcomes for all patients.We calculated the 4C Mortality Score for each patient using eight variables as described previously.We compared the predictive accuracy of 4C Mortality Score at hospital and ICU admission and APACHE II and III scores by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC).We determined the optimal cut-off value for each of these scores using the‘nearest’method and its 95%confidence interval by bootstrapping.RESULTS A total of 140 patients(62%males,mean age 56±17 years,mean APACHE II score 13±57)were included in the study.Nineteen(13.6%)of 140 patients died in the hospital.Compared to survivors,the non-survivors were older,males,had more comorbidities,higher rate of mechanical ventilation and vasopressor use.The AUROC for the 4C Mortality Score at hospital and ICU admission and APACHE II and II score was 0.75,0.80.0.75 and 0.79 respectively.The optimal cut-off value for these four scores was 9,10,14 and 56 respectively.The cut-point for all the scores had higher sensitivity than specificity.CONCLUSION The 4C score at ICU admission had a higher accuracy in predicting mortality than the 4C score at hospital admission.The predictive accuracy was similar to that for APACHE III score.The 4C score at ICU admission needs to be validated in future studies.展开更多
BACKGROUND Emphysematous pyelonephritis(EPN)is a life-threatening necrotizing renal parenchyma infection characterized by gas formation due to severe bacterial infection,predominantly affecting diabetic and immunocomp...BACKGROUND Emphysematous pyelonephritis(EPN)is a life-threatening necrotizing renal parenchyma infection characterized by gas formation due to severe bacterial infection,predominantly affecting diabetic and immunocompromised patients.It carries high morbidity and mortality,requiring early diagnosis and timely intervention.Various prognostic scoring systems help in triaging critically ill patients.The National Early Warning Score 2(NEWS 2)scoring system is a widely used physiological assessment tool that evaluates clinical deterioration based on vital parameters,but its standard form lacks specificity for risk stratification in EPN,necessitating modifications to improve treatment decisionmaking and prognostic accuracy in this critical condition.AIM To highlight the need to modify the NEWS 2 score to enable more intense monitoring and better treatment outcomes.METHODS This prospective study was done on all EPN patients admitted to our hospital over the past 12 years.A weighted average risk-stratification index was calculated for each of the three groups,mortality risk was calculated for each of the NEWS 2 scores,and the need for intervention for each of the three groups was calculated.The NEWS 2 score was subsequently modified with 0-6,7-14 and 15-20 scores included in groups 1,2 and 3,respectively.RESULTS A total of 171 patients with EPN were included in the study,with a predominant association with diabetes(90.6%)and a female-to-male ratio of 1.5:1.The combined prognostic scoring of the three groups was 10.7,13.0,and 21.9,respectively(P<0.01).All patients managed conservatively belonged to group 1(P<0.01).Eight patients underwent early nephrectomy,with six from group 3(P<0.01).Overall mortality was 8(4.7%),with seven from group 3(87.5%).The cutoff NEWS 2 score for mortality was identified to be 15,with a sensitivity of 87.5%,specificity of 96.9%,and an overall accuracy rate of 96.5%.The area under the curve to predict mortality based on the NEWS 2 score was 0.98,with a confidence interval of(0.97,1.0)and P<0.001.CONCLUSION Modified NEWS 2(mNEWS 2)score dramatically aids in the appropriate assessment of treatment-related outcomes.MNEWS 2 scores should become the practice standard to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this dreaded illness.展开更多
Objective We aimed to investigate the patterns of fasting blood glucose(FBG)trajectories and analyze the relationship between various occupational hazard factors and FBG trajectories in male steelworkers.Methods The s...Objective We aimed to investigate the patterns of fasting blood glucose(FBG)trajectories and analyze the relationship between various occupational hazard factors and FBG trajectories in male steelworkers.Methods The study cohort included 3,728 workers who met the selection criteria for the Tanggang Occupational Cohort(TGOC)between 2017 and 2022.A group-based trajectory model was used to identify the FBG trajectories.Environmental risk scores(ERS)were constructed using regression coefficients from the occupational hazard model as weights.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the effects of occupational hazard factors using the ERS on FBG trajectories.Results FBG trajectories were categorized into three groups.An association was observed between high temperature,noise exposure,and FBG trajectory(P<0.05).Using the first quartile group of ERS1 as a reference,the fourth quartile group of ERS1 had an increased risk of medium and high FBG by 1.90and 2.21 times,respectively(odds ratio[OR]=1.90,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.17–3.10;OR=2.21,95%CI:1.09–4.45).Conclusion An association was observed between occupational hazards based on ERS and FBG trajectories.The risk of FBG trajectory levels increase with an increase in ERS.展开更多
Background & Objectives: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) leads to high morbidity and mortality. Various models have been proposed for predicting the outcome of patients with HCC. We aim to compare the prognostic ab...Background & Objectives: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) leads to high morbidity and mortality. Various models have been proposed for predicting the outcome of patients with HCC. We aim to compare the prognostic abilities of Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, and ALBI scores for predicting in-hospital mortality of HCC. Methods: We enrolled patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis and HCC from May 2017 through May 2018. We further divided eligible patients into hepatitis B virus (HBV), patients without ascites, and patients with ascites subgroups. Areas under the characteristic curves (AUCs) were analyzed. Results: A total of 495 patients were included in the study. We collected data on patients at admission. A majority of patients were infected with HBV (91.5%). None of them were complicated with hepatic encephalopathy. Only 14.9% of patients presented with ascites. In the whole population, AUCs with 95% confidence interval (CI) of Child-Pugh, ALBI, MELD, and MELD-Na scores in predicting in-hospital mortality were 0.889 (95% CI: 0.858 - 0.915), 0.849 (95% CI: 0.814 - 0.879), 0.669 (95% CI: 0.626 - 0.711), and 0.721 (95% CI: 0.679 - 0.760), respectively. In the patients without ascites subgroup, Child-Pugh showed better discriminatory ability than ALBI score in predicting in-hospital mortality (P = 0.0002), while there were no significant differences among other comparisons. Conclusions: Child-Pugh and ALBI may be useful predictors for predicting in-hospital mortality in whole patients, in patients with HBV infection, and in patients without ascites. In HCC patients with ascites, MELD-Na may be effective for predicting in-hospital mortality.展开更多
Objective:Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor in children and has complex genetic underpinnings.Previous genome-wide association studies(GWASs)have identified many loci associated with neuroblast...Objective:Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor in children and has complex genetic underpinnings.Previous genome-wide association studies(GWASs)have identified many loci associated with neuroblastoma susceptibility;however,their application in risk prediction for Chinese children has not been systematically explored.This study seeks to enhance neuroblastoma risk prediction by validating these loci and evaluating their performance in polygenic risk models.Methods:We validated 35 GWAS-identified neuroblastoma susceptibility loci in a cohort of Chinese children,consisting of 402 neuroblastoma patients and 473 healthy controls.Genotyping these polymorphisms was conducted via the TaqMan method.Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed the genetic loci significantly associated with neuroblastoma risk.We constructed polygenic risk models by combining these loci and assessed their predictive performance via area under the curve(AUC)analysis.We also established a polygenic risk scoring(PRS)model for risk prediction by adopting the PLINK method.Results:Fourteen loci,including ten protective polymorphisms from CASC15,BARD1,LMO1,HSD17B12,and HACE1,and four risk variants from BARD1,RSRC1,CPZ and MMP20 were significantly associated with neuroblastoma risk.Compared with single-gene model,the 8-gene model(AUC=0.72)and 13-gene model(AUC=0.73)demonstrated superior predictive performance.Additionally,a PRS incorporating six significant loci achieved an AUC of 0.66,effectively stratifying individuals into distinct risk categories regarding neuroblastoma susceptibility.A higher PRS was significantly associated with advanced International Neuroblastoma Staging System(INSS)stages,suggesting its potential for clinical risk stratification.Conclusions:Our findings validate multiple loci as neuroblastoma risk factors in Chinese children and demonstrate the utility of polygenic risk models,particularly the PRS,in improving risk prediction.These results suggest that integrating multiple genetic variants into a PRS can enhance neuroblastoma risk stratification and potentially improve early diagnosis by guiding targeted screening programs for high-risk children.展开更多
BACKGROUND Inflammation is closely related to survival and disease progression in patients with cancer.However,the predictive value of inflammation-based scores for survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(H...BACKGROUND Inflammation is closely related to survival and disease progression in patients with cancer.However,the predictive value of inflammation-based scores for survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)treated with Lenvatinib has not been fully elucidated.AIM To compare different inflammation scores'prognostic values,and establish novel nomogram for predicting overall survival(OS)in HCC patients on Lenvatinib.METHODS In total,144 patients with HCC treated with Lenvatinib were enrolled in this study.The prognostic value of pre-treatment inflammation-based scores was retrospectively analyzed,including the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio,neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio,lymphocyteto-C-reactive protein ratio,lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio,systemic immune-inflammation index,C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio,and prognostic nutritional index(PNI).Kaplan-Meier survival curves and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis were used to assess predictive accuracy.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify prognostic factors predicting OS and construct a prognostic nomogram.RESULTS All the inflammation-based scores demonstrated good discrimination in terms of OS(all P<0.05),and the PNI emerged as an independent predictor of OS in multivariate analysis(hazard ratio=4.097;95%confidence interval:1.405-11.944;P=0.01).We selected three independent prognostic factors(macrovascular invasion,metastasis,and PNI)to generate a nomogram for OS.CONCLUSION The PNI is a prognostic indicator for assessing OS in patients with HCC treated with Lenvatinib and is superior to other inflammation-based scores in predicting OS.展开更多
Background:Acute cholangitis is an infection due to the bile duct obstruction.Despite progress in treat-ment,acute cholangitis remains potentially fatal.Early diagnosis and treatment improve the patient out-comes.The ...Background:Acute cholangitis is an infection due to the bile duct obstruction.Despite progress in treat-ment,acute cholangitis remains potentially fatal.Early diagnosis and treatment improve the patient out-comes.The present study aimed to identify clinical and biological factors at admission associated with 30-day mortality in acute cholangitis,to build an efficient prognostic score based on these parameters and to study the performances of this new score.Methods:We enrolled all adult patients consecutively hospitalized for acute cholangitis between January 2017 and December 2021.We developed a score system named ProChol using variables significantly asso-ciated with 30-day mortality in multivariate logistic analysis and simplified this system(named sProChol)based on a simple points-based approach.Results:In total,528 patients were included,with an average age of 77±13 years,a male predominance(54.2%)and a majority of lithiasis etiology(66.5%).Mortality in 30 days was 11.9%.In multivariate logis-tic analysis,tumor etiology[adjusted odds ratio(aOR)=15.43,95%confidence interval(CI):5.90-40.40],stent obstruction(aOR=5.12,95%CI:2.02-12.99),hypoalbuminemia(aOR=3.50,95%CI:1.25-9.81),renal failure(aOR=6.51,95%CI:2.62-16.18),oxygen therapy(aOR=4.63,95%CI:1.02-20.92)and cu-rative anticoagulation(aOR=2.60,95%CI:1.23-5.52)were independently associated with the 30-day mortality while fever was a protective factor(aOR=0.37,95%CI:0.16-0.84).ProChol score using these 7 parameters and sProChol using the 3 robust factors(etiology,renal failure and anticoagulation)presented respectively an area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves(AUC)of 0.81 and 0.77,higher than Tokyo(AUC=0.72)and Gravito-Soares et al.score(AUC=0.71).Patients with sProChol≥4 had a significantly higher risk of transfer to intensive care unit(13.3%vs.5.1%;P<0.001)and longer length of stay(P=0.0006).Conclusions:ProChol and sProChol constructed from simple clinico-biological parameters at admission,present interesting performances in predicting the 30-day mortality in acute cholangitis.展开更多
BACKGROUND Although the triple therapy of transarterial chemoembolization(TACE)combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors and tyrosine kinase inhibitors is becoming an effective treatment for unresectable hepatocellul...BACKGROUND Although the triple therapy of transarterial chemoembolization(TACE)combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors and tyrosine kinase inhibitors is becoming an effective treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma(uHCC).However,there is still a lack of effective tools for predicting therapeutic effects at present.AIM To develop a predictive tool for the prognosis of uHCC patients treated with TACE,sintilimab and lenvatinib.METHODS Based on multicenter data,this study constructed and validated an AADN score as variables to predict overall survival in patients treated with this combination therapy.This study included 188 uHCC cases(training cohort:n=101,validation cohort:n=87)from three different hospitals.Who were treated with TACE,sintilimab and lenvatinib.RESULTS In multivariate analysis,alpha-fetoprotein≥100 ng/mL[hazard ratio(HR)=2.579,P=0.010],alkaline phosphatase>120 U/L,(HR=2.234,P=0.021),direct bilirubin>7.3μmol/L(HR=2.931,P=0.007)and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio>2.5(HR=3.127,P=0.006)were identified as independent prognostic factors and were used to establish the AADN score.Kaplan-Meier survival curves and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess the accuracy of the AADN score,with area under receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.827(training cohort,95%confidence interval:0.743-0.911)and 0.832(validation cohort,95%confidence interval:0.742-0.923).According to the score,the patients were divided into low-risk,intermediate-risk and highrisk groups.Overall survival and progression-free survival were significantly different between groups.CONCLUSION The AADN score can distinguish the prognostic risk of uHCC patients treated with TACE,sintilimab and lenvatinib,provides a basis for individualized treatment decision-making,and have clinical application prospect.展开更多
Background Renal and liver dysfunction,which are common complications in infectious diseases,are associated with poor clinical outcomes.This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the Model for End-Stage Live...Background Renal and liver dysfunction,which are common complications in infectious diseases,are associated with poor clinical outcomes.This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding International Normalized Ratio(MELD-XI)score for predicting short-term mortality in patients with infective endocarditis(IE)complicated by sepsis.Methods A total of 496 consecutive IE patients complicated with sepsis at Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital were enrolled and divided into three groups according to the tertiles of MELD-XI score:<7.9(n=164),7.9-14.6(n=168),and>14.6(n=164).Major adverse clinical events(MACE)were composite endpoints that included acute heart failure,renal dialysis,stroke,and death during hospitalization.Multivariate analysis was used to explore the prognostic value of MELD-XI score.Results In-hospital and 6-month mortality were 14.3%and 21.5%,respectively.In-hospital mortality and the incidence of MACE rose significantly with higher MELD-XI scores(mortality:8.5%vs.12.5%vs.14.3%,P=0.002;Incidence of MACE:24.4%vs.31%vs.51.2%,P<0.001).Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis showed that the optimal cutoff value of MELD-XI score was 15.7[area under the curve(AUC):0.648,95%CI:0.578-0.718,P<0.001].Multivariate regression analysis revealed that MELD-XI score>15.7 was a significantly independent risk factor for both in-hospital[adjusted odds ratio(OR):2.27,95%CI:1.28-4.05,P=0.005]and 6-month mortality[adjusted hazard ratio(HR):1.69,95%CI:1.13-2.53,P=0.011].Conclusions MELD-XI score>15.7 was independently associated with short-term mortality in IE patients complicated with sepsis,suggesting its potential value as a prognostic biomarker for risk stratification in this population.展开更多
文摘BACKGROUND Chronic liver disease is a growing global health problem,leading to hepatic decompensation characterized by an array of clinical and biochemical complic-ations.Several scoring systems have been introduced in assessing the severity of hepatic decompensation with the most frequent ones are Child-Pugh score,model of end-stage liver disease(MELD)score,and MELD-Na score.Anemia is frequently observed in cirrhotic patients and is linked to worsened clinical outcomes.Although studies have explored anemia in liver disease,few have investigated the correlation of hemoglobin level with the severity of hepatic decompensation.AIM To determine the relationship between hemoglobin levels and the severity of decompensated liver disease and comparing the strength of this correlation using the Child-Pugh,MELD,and MELD-Na scores.METHODS This cross-sectional study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital with 652 decompensated liver disease patients enrolled in the study.Data was collected on demographics,clinical history,and laboratory findings,including hemoglobin levels,bilirubin,albumin,prothrombin time(international normalized ratio),sodium,and creatinine.The Child-Pugh,MELD,and MELD-Na scores were calculated.Statistical analysis was performed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 26,and correlations between hemoglobin levels and severity scores were assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient.RESULTS The study included 405 males(62.1%)and 247 females(37.9%)with an average age of 58.8 years.Significant inverse correlations were found between hemoglobin levels and Child-Pugh,MELD,and MELD-Na scores(P<0.01),with the MELD scoring system being the strongest correlator among all.One-way analysis of variance revealed significant differences in hemoglobin levels across the severity groups of each scoring system(P=0.001).Tukey's post hoc analysis confirmed significant internal differences among each severity group.CONCLUSION Understanding the correlation between hemoglobin and liver disease severity can improve patient management by offering insights into prognosis and guiding treatment decisions.
文摘BACKGROUND Clinical predictors of dengue fever are crucial for guiding timely management and avoiding life-threatening complications.While prognostic scores are available,a systematic evaluation of these tools is lacking.AIM To evaluate the performance and accuracy of various proposed dengue clinical prognostic scores.METHODS Three databases,PubMed,EMBASE and Cochrane,were searched for peer-reviewed studies published from inception to 4 September 2023.Studies either developing or validating a prognostic model relevant to dengue fever were included.A total of 29 studies(n=17910)were included.RESULTS Most commonly studied outcomes were severe dengue(15 models)and mortality(8 models).For the paediatric population,Bedside Dengue Severity Score by Gayathri et al(specificity=0.98)and the nomogram model by Nguyen et al(sensitivity=0.87)performed better.For the adult population,the most specific model was reported by Leo et al(specificity=0.98).The most sensitive score is shared between Warning Signs for Severe Dengue as reported by Leo et al and Model 2 by Lee et al(sensitivity=1.00).CONCLUSION While several models demonstrated precision and reliability in predicting severe dengue and mortality,broader application across diverse geographic settings is needed to assess their external validity.
基金funded,in part,by the National Natural Science Fund (NSFC,China) under award number 81900382supported,in part,by the Yang talents Program of Beijing (QML20200302)Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation (7222072).
文摘Background Biomarkers-based prediction of long-term risk of acute coronary syndrome(ACS)is scarce.We aim to develop a risk score integrating clinical routine information(C)and plasma biomarkers(B)for predicting long-term risk of ACS patients.Methods We included 2729 ACS patients from the OCEA(Observation of cardiovascular events in ACS patients).The earlier admitted 1910 patients were enrolled as development cohort;and the subsequently admitted 819 subjects were treated as valida-tion cohort.We investigated 10-year risk of cardiovascular(CV)death,myocardial infarction(MI)and all cause death in these pa-tients.Potential variables contributing to risk of clinical events were assessed using Cox regression models and a score was de-rived using main part of these variables.Results During 16,110 person-years of follow-up,there were 238 CV death/MI in the development cohort.The 7 most import-ant predictors including in the final model were NT-proBNP,D-dimer,GDF-15,peripheral artery disease(PAD),Fibrinogen,ST-segment elevated MI(STEMI),left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF),termed as CB-ACS score.C-index of the score for predica-tion of cardiovascular events was 0.79(95%CI:0.76-0.82)in development cohort and 0.77(95%CI:0.76-0.78)in the validation co-hort(5832 person-years of follow-up),which outperformed GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS risk score.The CB-ACS score was also well calibrated in development and validation cohort(Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino:P=0.70 and P=0.07,respectively).Conclusions CB-ACS risk score provides a useful tool for long-term prediction of CV events in patients with ACS.This model outperforms GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS ischemic risk score.
文摘BACKGROUND Previous studies have reported the high predictive accuracy of 4C Mortality Score derived at hospital admission in coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)patients.Very few studies have assessed it at intensive care unit(ICU)admission and compared it with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)II score.There are no studies comparing its accuracy with APACHE III score.AIM To describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to ICU with COVID-19 infection and to compare the accuracy of 4C score and APACHE score in predicting mortality in these patients.METHODS We conducted this retrospective cohort study using an electronic database in a tertiary ICU in Sydney.We included all adult patients(age>16 years)admitted to ICU with COVID-19 infection over a 5-month period(July 1,2021 to November 30,2021).We collected the data on demographics,clinical characteristics,interventions and outcomes for all patients.We calculated the 4C Mortality Score for each patient using eight variables as described previously.We compared the predictive accuracy of 4C Mortality Score at hospital and ICU admission and APACHE II and III scores by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC).We determined the optimal cut-off value for each of these scores using the‘nearest’method and its 95%confidence interval by bootstrapping.RESULTS A total of 140 patients(62%males,mean age 56±17 years,mean APACHE II score 13±57)were included in the study.Nineteen(13.6%)of 140 patients died in the hospital.Compared to survivors,the non-survivors were older,males,had more comorbidities,higher rate of mechanical ventilation and vasopressor use.The AUROC for the 4C Mortality Score at hospital and ICU admission and APACHE II and II score was 0.75,0.80.0.75 and 0.79 respectively.The optimal cut-off value for these four scores was 9,10,14 and 56 respectively.The cut-point for all the scores had higher sensitivity than specificity.CONCLUSION The 4C score at ICU admission had a higher accuracy in predicting mortality than the 4C score at hospital admission.The predictive accuracy was similar to that for APACHE III score.The 4C score at ICU admission needs to be validated in future studies.
文摘BACKGROUND Emphysematous pyelonephritis(EPN)is a life-threatening necrotizing renal parenchyma infection characterized by gas formation due to severe bacterial infection,predominantly affecting diabetic and immunocompromised patients.It carries high morbidity and mortality,requiring early diagnosis and timely intervention.Various prognostic scoring systems help in triaging critically ill patients.The National Early Warning Score 2(NEWS 2)scoring system is a widely used physiological assessment tool that evaluates clinical deterioration based on vital parameters,but its standard form lacks specificity for risk stratification in EPN,necessitating modifications to improve treatment decisionmaking and prognostic accuracy in this critical condition.AIM To highlight the need to modify the NEWS 2 score to enable more intense monitoring and better treatment outcomes.METHODS This prospective study was done on all EPN patients admitted to our hospital over the past 12 years.A weighted average risk-stratification index was calculated for each of the three groups,mortality risk was calculated for each of the NEWS 2 scores,and the need for intervention for each of the three groups was calculated.The NEWS 2 score was subsequently modified with 0-6,7-14 and 15-20 scores included in groups 1,2 and 3,respectively.RESULTS A total of 171 patients with EPN were included in the study,with a predominant association with diabetes(90.6%)and a female-to-male ratio of 1.5:1.The combined prognostic scoring of the three groups was 10.7,13.0,and 21.9,respectively(P<0.01).All patients managed conservatively belonged to group 1(P<0.01).Eight patients underwent early nephrectomy,with six from group 3(P<0.01).Overall mortality was 8(4.7%),with seven from group 3(87.5%).The cutoff NEWS 2 score for mortality was identified to be 15,with a sensitivity of 87.5%,specificity of 96.9%,and an overall accuracy rate of 96.5%.The area under the curve to predict mortality based on the NEWS 2 score was 0.98,with a confidence interval of(0.97,1.0)and P<0.001.CONCLUSION Modified NEWS 2(mNEWS 2)score dramatically aids in the appropriate assessment of treatment-related outcomes.MNEWS 2 scores should become the practice standard to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this dreaded illness.
基金supported by the Key Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(grant number:2016YF0900605)the Key Research and Development Program of Hebei Province(grant number:192777129D)+1 种基金the Joint Fund for Iron and Steel of the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(grant number:H2016209058)the National Natural Science Foundation for Regional Joint Fund of China(grant number:U22A20364)。
文摘Objective We aimed to investigate the patterns of fasting blood glucose(FBG)trajectories and analyze the relationship between various occupational hazard factors and FBG trajectories in male steelworkers.Methods The study cohort included 3,728 workers who met the selection criteria for the Tanggang Occupational Cohort(TGOC)between 2017 and 2022.A group-based trajectory model was used to identify the FBG trajectories.Environmental risk scores(ERS)were constructed using regression coefficients from the occupational hazard model as weights.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to explore the effects of occupational hazard factors using the ERS on FBG trajectories.Results FBG trajectories were categorized into three groups.An association was observed between high temperature,noise exposure,and FBG trajectory(P<0.05).Using the first quartile group of ERS1 as a reference,the fourth quartile group of ERS1 had an increased risk of medium and high FBG by 1.90and 2.21 times,respectively(odds ratio[OR]=1.90,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.17–3.10;OR=2.21,95%CI:1.09–4.45).Conclusion An association was observed between occupational hazards based on ERS and FBG trajectories.The risk of FBG trajectory levels increase with an increase in ERS.
文摘Background & Objectives: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) leads to high morbidity and mortality. Various models have been proposed for predicting the outcome of patients with HCC. We aim to compare the prognostic abilities of Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, and ALBI scores for predicting in-hospital mortality of HCC. Methods: We enrolled patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis and HCC from May 2017 through May 2018. We further divided eligible patients into hepatitis B virus (HBV), patients without ascites, and patients with ascites subgroups. Areas under the characteristic curves (AUCs) were analyzed. Results: A total of 495 patients were included in the study. We collected data on patients at admission. A majority of patients were infected with HBV (91.5%). None of them were complicated with hepatic encephalopathy. Only 14.9% of patients presented with ascites. In the whole population, AUCs with 95% confidence interval (CI) of Child-Pugh, ALBI, MELD, and MELD-Na scores in predicting in-hospital mortality were 0.889 (95% CI: 0.858 - 0.915), 0.849 (95% CI: 0.814 - 0.879), 0.669 (95% CI: 0.626 - 0.711), and 0.721 (95% CI: 0.679 - 0.760), respectively. In the patients without ascites subgroup, Child-Pugh showed better discriminatory ability than ALBI score in predicting in-hospital mortality (P = 0.0002), while there were no significant differences among other comparisons. Conclusions: Child-Pugh and ALBI may be useful predictors for predicting in-hospital mortality in whole patients, in patients with HBV infection, and in patients without ascites. In HCC patients with ascites, MELD-Na may be effective for predicting in-hospital mortality.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82173593,32300473)Guangzhou Science and Technology Project(No.2025A04J4537,2025A04J4696)+1 种基金Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2023A1515220053)Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.2021K524C).
文摘Objective:Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial solid tumor in children and has complex genetic underpinnings.Previous genome-wide association studies(GWASs)have identified many loci associated with neuroblastoma susceptibility;however,their application in risk prediction for Chinese children has not been systematically explored.This study seeks to enhance neuroblastoma risk prediction by validating these loci and evaluating their performance in polygenic risk models.Methods:We validated 35 GWAS-identified neuroblastoma susceptibility loci in a cohort of Chinese children,consisting of 402 neuroblastoma patients and 473 healthy controls.Genotyping these polymorphisms was conducted via the TaqMan method.Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed the genetic loci significantly associated with neuroblastoma risk.We constructed polygenic risk models by combining these loci and assessed their predictive performance via area under the curve(AUC)analysis.We also established a polygenic risk scoring(PRS)model for risk prediction by adopting the PLINK method.Results:Fourteen loci,including ten protective polymorphisms from CASC15,BARD1,LMO1,HSD17B12,and HACE1,and four risk variants from BARD1,RSRC1,CPZ and MMP20 were significantly associated with neuroblastoma risk.Compared with single-gene model,the 8-gene model(AUC=0.72)and 13-gene model(AUC=0.73)demonstrated superior predictive performance.Additionally,a PRS incorporating six significant loci achieved an AUC of 0.66,effectively stratifying individuals into distinct risk categories regarding neuroblastoma susceptibility.A higher PRS was significantly associated with advanced International Neuroblastoma Staging System(INSS)stages,suggesting its potential for clinical risk stratification.Conclusions:Our findings validate multiple loci as neuroblastoma risk factors in Chinese children and demonstrate the utility of polygenic risk models,particularly the PRS,in improving risk prediction.These results suggest that integrating multiple genetic variants into a PRS can enhance neuroblastoma risk stratification and potentially improve early diagnosis by guiding targeted screening programs for high-risk children.
基金Supported by Natural Science Foundation of China,No.82103566。
文摘BACKGROUND Inflammation is closely related to survival and disease progression in patients with cancer.However,the predictive value of inflammation-based scores for survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)treated with Lenvatinib has not been fully elucidated.AIM To compare different inflammation scores'prognostic values,and establish novel nomogram for predicting overall survival(OS)in HCC patients on Lenvatinib.METHODS In total,144 patients with HCC treated with Lenvatinib were enrolled in this study.The prognostic value of pre-treatment inflammation-based scores was retrospectively analyzed,including the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio,neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio,lymphocyteto-C-reactive protein ratio,lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio,systemic immune-inflammation index,C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio,and prognostic nutritional index(PNI).Kaplan-Meier survival curves and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis were used to assess predictive accuracy.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify prognostic factors predicting OS and construct a prognostic nomogram.RESULTS All the inflammation-based scores demonstrated good discrimination in terms of OS(all P<0.05),and the PNI emerged as an independent predictor of OS in multivariate analysis(hazard ratio=4.097;95%confidence interval:1.405-11.944;P=0.01).We selected three independent prognostic factors(macrovascular invasion,metastasis,and PNI)to generate a nomogram for OS.CONCLUSION The PNI is a prognostic indicator for assessing OS in patients with HCC treated with Lenvatinib and is superior to other inflammation-based scores in predicting OS.
文摘Background:Acute cholangitis is an infection due to the bile duct obstruction.Despite progress in treat-ment,acute cholangitis remains potentially fatal.Early diagnosis and treatment improve the patient out-comes.The present study aimed to identify clinical and biological factors at admission associated with 30-day mortality in acute cholangitis,to build an efficient prognostic score based on these parameters and to study the performances of this new score.Methods:We enrolled all adult patients consecutively hospitalized for acute cholangitis between January 2017 and December 2021.We developed a score system named ProChol using variables significantly asso-ciated with 30-day mortality in multivariate logistic analysis and simplified this system(named sProChol)based on a simple points-based approach.Results:In total,528 patients were included,with an average age of 77±13 years,a male predominance(54.2%)and a majority of lithiasis etiology(66.5%).Mortality in 30 days was 11.9%.In multivariate logis-tic analysis,tumor etiology[adjusted odds ratio(aOR)=15.43,95%confidence interval(CI):5.90-40.40],stent obstruction(aOR=5.12,95%CI:2.02-12.99),hypoalbuminemia(aOR=3.50,95%CI:1.25-9.81),renal failure(aOR=6.51,95%CI:2.62-16.18),oxygen therapy(aOR=4.63,95%CI:1.02-20.92)and cu-rative anticoagulation(aOR=2.60,95%CI:1.23-5.52)were independently associated with the 30-day mortality while fever was a protective factor(aOR=0.37,95%CI:0.16-0.84).ProChol score using these 7 parameters and sProChol using the 3 robust factors(etiology,renal failure and anticoagulation)presented respectively an area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves(AUC)of 0.81 and 0.77,higher than Tokyo(AUC=0.72)and Gravito-Soares et al.score(AUC=0.71).Patients with sProChol≥4 had a significantly higher risk of transfer to intensive care unit(13.3%vs.5.1%;P<0.001)and longer length of stay(P=0.0006).Conclusions:ProChol and sProChol constructed from simple clinico-biological parameters at admission,present interesting performances in predicting the 30-day mortality in acute cholangitis.
基金Supported by National Key Sci-Tech Special Project of China,No.2018ZX10302207Beijing Nova Program,No.20250484965+4 种基金Beijing Natural Science Foundation,No.7222191 and No.7244426Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,Peking University,No.PKU2024XGK005Peking University Medicine Seed Fund for Interdisciplinary Research,No.BMU2021MX007 and No.BMU2022MX001Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,Peking University People’s Hospital Scientific Research Development Funds,No.RDX2020-06 and No.RDJ2022-14the Qi-Min Project.
文摘BACKGROUND Although the triple therapy of transarterial chemoembolization(TACE)combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors and tyrosine kinase inhibitors is becoming an effective treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma(uHCC).However,there is still a lack of effective tools for predicting therapeutic effects at present.AIM To develop a predictive tool for the prognosis of uHCC patients treated with TACE,sintilimab and lenvatinib.METHODS Based on multicenter data,this study constructed and validated an AADN score as variables to predict overall survival in patients treated with this combination therapy.This study included 188 uHCC cases(training cohort:n=101,validation cohort:n=87)from three different hospitals.Who were treated with TACE,sintilimab and lenvatinib.RESULTS In multivariate analysis,alpha-fetoprotein≥100 ng/mL[hazard ratio(HR)=2.579,P=0.010],alkaline phosphatase>120 U/L,(HR=2.234,P=0.021),direct bilirubin>7.3μmol/L(HR=2.931,P=0.007)and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio>2.5(HR=3.127,P=0.006)were identified as independent prognostic factors and were used to establish the AADN score.Kaplan-Meier survival curves and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess the accuracy of the AADN score,with area under receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.827(training cohort,95%confidence interval:0.743-0.911)and 0.832(validation cohort,95%confidence interval:0.742-0.923).According to the score,the patients were divided into low-risk,intermediate-risk and highrisk groups.Overall survival and progression-free survival were significantly different between groups.CONCLUSION The AADN score can distinguish the prognostic risk of uHCC patients treated with TACE,sintilimab and lenvatinib,provides a basis for individualized treatment decision-making,and have clinical application prospect.
文摘Background Renal and liver dysfunction,which are common complications in infectious diseases,are associated with poor clinical outcomes.This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Excluding International Normalized Ratio(MELD-XI)score for predicting short-term mortality in patients with infective endocarditis(IE)complicated by sepsis.Methods A total of 496 consecutive IE patients complicated with sepsis at Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital were enrolled and divided into three groups according to the tertiles of MELD-XI score:<7.9(n=164),7.9-14.6(n=168),and>14.6(n=164).Major adverse clinical events(MACE)were composite endpoints that included acute heart failure,renal dialysis,stroke,and death during hospitalization.Multivariate analysis was used to explore the prognostic value of MELD-XI score.Results In-hospital and 6-month mortality were 14.3%and 21.5%,respectively.In-hospital mortality and the incidence of MACE rose significantly with higher MELD-XI scores(mortality:8.5%vs.12.5%vs.14.3%,P=0.002;Incidence of MACE:24.4%vs.31%vs.51.2%,P<0.001).Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis showed that the optimal cutoff value of MELD-XI score was 15.7[area under the curve(AUC):0.648,95%CI:0.578-0.718,P<0.001].Multivariate regression analysis revealed that MELD-XI score>15.7 was a significantly independent risk factor for both in-hospital[adjusted odds ratio(OR):2.27,95%CI:1.28-4.05,P=0.005]and 6-month mortality[adjusted hazard ratio(HR):1.69,95%CI:1.13-2.53,P=0.011].Conclusions MELD-XI score>15.7 was independently associated with short-term mortality in IE patients complicated with sepsis,suggesting its potential value as a prognostic biomarker for risk stratification in this population.
