The proposal of carbon neutrality target makes decarbonization and hydrogenation typical features of future energy development in China.With a wide range of application scenarios,hydrogen energy will experience rapid ...The proposal of carbon neutrality target makes decarbonization and hydrogenation typical features of future energy development in China.With a wide range of application scenarios,hydrogen energy will experience rapid growth in production and consumption.To formulate an effective hydrogen energy development strategy for the future of China,this study employs the departmental scenario analysis method to calculate and evaluate the future consumption of hydrogen energy in China’s heavy industry,transportation,electricity,and other related fields.Multidimensional technical parameters are selected and predicted accurately and reliably in combination with different development scenarios.The findings indicate that the period from 2030 to 2050 will enjoy rapid development of hydrogen energy,having an average annual growth rate of 2%to 4%.The technological progress and breakthroughs scenario has the greatest potential for hydrogen demand scale among the four development scenarios.Under this scenario,the total demand for hydrogen energy is expected to reach 446.37Mt in 2060.Thetransportation sector will be the sector with the greatest potential for hydrogen deployment growth from 2023 to 2060,which is expected to rise from 0.038Mt to about 163.18Mt,with the ambitious growth in the future.Additionally,hydrogen energy has a considerable development potential in the steel sector,and the trend of de-refueling coke by hydrogenation in this sector will be imperative for this energy-intensive industries.展开更多
Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of ...Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.展开更多
A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Prov...A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general a-greed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291* * * (n= 48) and 0.6431* * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg, 0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.展开更多
The framework of fatigue factors is constructed to reduce the number of maritime accidents caused by human fatigue.Based on the study of maritime human fatigue,by screening and classifying it,there are 15 fatigue fact...The framework of fatigue factors is constructed to reduce the number of maritime accidents caused by human fatigue.Based on the study of maritime human fatigue,by screening and classifying it,there are 15 fatigue factors,which can be classified into 4 types:sleep,rest and rhythm;work factors;personal conditions;environmental factors.These factors are regarded as the variables for constructing scenarios.The importance,uncertainty,influence and dependence of variables and variable pairs were assessed by using morphological analysis,quantitative scales and correlation matrices.Ship movement and workload are selected as the two key variables,which are regarded as the axes of generating scenarios.One of the scenarios is selected as the typical scenario to illustrate the relationship between the causes of fatigue.Then,the analysis framework is constructed according to the fatigue factors relationship,and several potential solutions are proposed,which include the development of foresighted and flexible work plans,and the application of wearable facilities to improve monitoring and assessment systems.The proposed framework lays a theoretical foundation for studying maritime human fatigue,and scenario analysis can provide an effective strategy for reducing crews'fatigue.展开更多
Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate ...Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.展开更多
The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerica...The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.展开更多
Low-carbon economic development has become a.fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of No...Low-carbon economic development has become a.fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of North China. Tianjin＇s energy demand and CO2 emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 t in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the background of global responding to climate change, China will likely be requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions during 2020-2030, which will inevitable reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormously. Tianjin should make deployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carbon economic development as important strategic mission. First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing energy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin＇s future CO2 emissions will continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin should get ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology and talent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional meehanisms conducive to low-carbon development from now on. starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technology research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new and renewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption.展开更多
China’s inland waterway transport sector is facing the challenge of achieving carbon neutrality goals amidst its rapid development.However,the carbon mitigation potential of targeted interventions within inland water...China’s inland waterway transport sector is facing the challenge of achieving carbon neutrality goals amidst its rapid development.However,the carbon mitigation potential of targeted interventions within inland waterway transport networks remains poorly understood.We construct a port-to-port carbon emission inventory for the inland waterway transport sector from 2019 to 2050.Jiangxi province,a typical dynamically developing region,is selected as the study area given its plans for the large-scale construction of new inland waterways in the future.Our results reveal that while waterway optimization improves cargo transport efficiency,it may lead to higher carbon emissions by 2030.However,with intensified mitigation efforts,it can contribute to significant emission reductions by 2050.In terms of strategic interventions,prioritizing transport technology upgrades(e.g.,improve energy efficiency)in the short-term,while transitioning to alternative fuels in the long-term,could reduce to 0.76 Mt emissions by 2050,representing a 72%decrease compared to 2019 levels.Our findings from the typical complex waterway transport network in China offer valuable insights for managing carbon emissions in inland waterways globally,especially in regions contemplating the expansion of their inland waterway systems.展开更多
How to coordinate arid eco-environmental protection and oasis agricultural development and avoid desertification is a key problem in achieving the sustainable development of oasis human- earth systems. We analyzed the...How to coordinate arid eco-environmental protection and oasis agricultural development and avoid desertification is a key problem in achieving the sustainable development of oasis human- earth systems. We analyzed the temporal characteristics and overall tendency of an arid oasis agricultural production system in Yining County, China by means of emergy methods and ternary diagrams theory. From 1989–2008, total emergy input and output of the oasis agricultural system in Yining County had a trend of sustainable development. According to the sustainability analysis with emergy indices, the agricultural production systems in Yining County were still at a sustainable status. However, the emergy-based sustainability index （ESI） followed a decreasing trend. Scenario analysis of the sustainability lines based on ternary diagrams showed that both the F （input from economic component） and N （input from nonrenewable resource） leading modes had limitations in the study case. The agricultural production of Yining County should adopt the R leading mode, in which the percentage of non-renewable resources in the local system will be kept roughly unchanged, while the fraction of purchased inputs and renewable resources will be decreased in synchronism. In this way, the contribution from local renewable resources to agricultural production will be increased, and sustainable development ensured.展开更多
The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth.In the study,a typical peri-urban river,Nansha River,was selected as a cas...The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth.In the study,a typical peri-urban river,Nansha River,was selected as a case study to discuss the scheme of peri-urban river rehabilitation.Located in the north part of the Beijing central region,the Nansha River watershed has been designated as an ecologically friendly garden-style area with high-tech industry parks and upscale residential zones.However,the Nansha River is currently seriously contaminated by urban and rural pollutants from both nonpoint sources(NPS)and point sources(PS).In this study,the pollutant loads from point sources and nonpoint sources in the Nansha River watershed were first assessed.A coupled model,derived from the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program,was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality in the Nansha River.According to the characteristics of the typical peri-urban river,three different PS and NPS control scenarios were designed and examined by modeling analyses.Based on the results of the scenario analysis,a river rehabilitation scheme was recommended for implementation.展开更多
Vanadium is a vital strategic resource, and vanadium metabolism is an important part of the national socio-economic system of China. This study conducts accounting and scenario analysis on the life cycle of vanadium m...Vanadium is a vital strategic resource, and vanadium metabolism is an important part of the national socio-economic system of China. This study conducts accounting and scenario analysis on the life cycle of vanadium metabolism in China. Based on the character- istics of vanadium life cycle and substance flow analysis （SFA） framework, we present a quantitative evaluation of a static anthropogenic vanadium life cycle for the year 2010. Results show that anthropogenic vanadium consumption, stocks, and new domestic scrap are at 98.2, 21.2, and 4.1 kt, respectively; new scrap is usually discarded. The overall utilization ratio of vanadium is 32.2%. A large amount of vanadium is stockpiled into tailings, debris, slags, and other spent solids. A scenario analysis was conducted to analyze the future developmental trend of vanadium metabolism in China based on the SFA frame- work and the qualitative analysis of technology advance- ment and socio-economic development. The baseline year was set as 2010. Several indicators were proposed to simulate different scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The scenario analysis indicates that the next 20 years is a critical period for the vanadium industry in China. This paper discusses relevant policies that contribute to the improvement of sustainable vanadium utilization in China.展开更多
With the rapid development of aviation industry and its increasing impact on the global climate change,the contributions of carbon emissions frominternational flights are attracting more and more attention worldwide.T...With the rapid development of aviation industry and its increasing impact on the global climate change,the contributions of carbon emissions frominternational flights are attracting more and more attention worldwide.This study,taking Macao as the aviation hub,established the cross-border aviation carbon emission evaluation model to explore dynamic carbon emissions and net-zero path of international flights.The aviation hubmainly covers 58 routes and five types of civil aircraft from 12 countries or regions during 2000-2022.The results show that the aviation transportation in Macao emitted about 1.44 million tons CO_(2)eq in 2019,which is high 3.6 times that of 2000.The COVID-19 has led to a rapid decline in aviation carbon emissions in a short period of time,carbon emissions in 2020 decreased by 80%compared to 2019.In terms of cumulative carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019,the A321 and A320 Airbus contribute to 80%of carbon emissions.And the Chinese mainland(37%)and Taiwan(29%)are the main sources of emissions.In 2000-2019,the proportion of carbon emissions from China(including Taiwan and Hong Kong)decrease from 91%to 53%,while the contribution from Southeast Asia(from 5% to 26%),Japan and South Korea(from 2% to 19%)keep the growth trends.In the optimal scenario(B3C3),net zero emissions of cross-border aviation in Macao can be not achieved,and there is still only by removing 0.3 million tons CO_(2)eq.Emission reduction technology and new energy usage are priorities for the aviation emission reduction.展开更多
Accurately forecasting ecosystem services is critical for enhancing our understanding and improving management practices within nature reserves,particularly in light of climate change,land use/cover changes,and their ...Accurately forecasting ecosystem services is critical for enhancing our understanding and improving management practices within nature reserves,particularly in light of climate change,land use/cover changes,and their complex interactions.However,existing studies often fail to fully consider vegetation response,constituting a gap in the comprehensive assessment of changes in ecosystem services.Therefore,a coupled model framework integrating climate change,land use change,and vegetation dynamics was developed to allow for the simulation of dynamic ecosystem service scenarios throughout the twenty-first century.The Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve in Jiangxi Province was considered as the study area.The results showed that ecosystem services and their synergistic effects will be optimized under scenarios that emphasize strict protection of ecological lands and incorporating the SSP1-2.6 scenario.However,sustaining optimized ecosystem services poses significant challenges in scenarios characterized by resource-intensive development and ongoing climate warming,as in the SSP5-8.5 scenario.Notably,discernible variations exist in balancing and synergizing the management of ecosystem services across diverse land uses and forest types.Our study underscores the importance of integrating vegetation response into the framework of ecosystem service forecasting,which is essential for assisting nature reserves in effectively addressing the multifaceted risks associated with climate change and rapid socio-economic development.展开更多
Guangdong’s carbon emissions have surpassed the world’s 11th largest emitter.It is indispensable for this province to find a robust cost-effective strategy for reducing carbon emissions.This study employed the Low E...Guangdong’s carbon emissions have surpassed the world’s 11th largest emitter.It is indispensable for this province to find a robust cost-effective strategy for reducing carbon emissions.This study employed the Low Emissions Analysis Platform model,marginal cost curves,and Monte Carlo methods to simulate the energy consumption,carbon emissions,and economic benefits of emission reduction in Guangdong Province from 2020 to 2030 under the application of various structural optimization policies and energy-saving technologies.The main findings are as follows:In 2030,Guangdong Province is projected to achieve a carbon emission reduction of 273.6 to 304.6million t CO_(2eq),with a total reduction cost ranging from 1030.9 to 1452.2 billion yuan.Increasing the share of renewable energy,which still has significant growth potential,can lead to a 1.4 times greater reduction in carbon emissions compared to the application of energy-saving technologies,despite the latter yielding 2.3 times more energy savings.The emission reduction measures with net-cost can contribute 71.4%to the total carbon reduction of the province,being much larger than those with net benefits.The power sector plays a critical role in carbon emission reduction within Guangdong Province,with its various measures exerting the most substantial impact on emission reduction quantity and cost,contributing cumulative variance contributions of 90.1%and 84.3%,respectively.It has relatively large potential for emission reduction and relatively low cost of structural adjustment.展开更多
Recently,the transportation sector in China has gradually become the main source of urban air pollution and primary driver of carbon emissions growth.Considering air pollutants and greenhouse gases come from the same ...Recently,the transportation sector in China has gradually become the main source of urban air pollution and primary driver of carbon emissions growth.Considering air pollutants and greenhouse gases come from the same emission sources,it is necessary to establish an updated high-resolution emission inventory for the transportation sector in Central China,themost polluted region in China.The inventory includes on-road mobile,non-roadmobile,oil storage and transportation,and covers 9 types of air pollutants and 3 types of greenhouse gases.Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP)model,the emissions of pollutants were predicted for the period from2020 to 2035 in different scenarios.Results showed that in 2020,emissions of SO_(2),NO_(x),CO,PM_(10),PM_(2.5),VOCs,NH_(3),BC,OC,CO_(2),CH_(4),and N_(2)O in Henan Province were 27.5,503.2,878.6,20.1,17.4,222.1,21.5,9.4,2.9,92,077.9,6.0,and 10.4 kilotons,respectively.Energy demand and pollutant emissions in Henan Province are simulated under four scenarios(Baseline Scenario(BS),Pollution Abatement Scenario(PA),Green Transportation Scenario(GT),and Reinforcing Low Carbon Scenario(RLC)).The collaborative emission reduction effect is most significant in the RLC scenario,followed by the GT scenario.By 2035,under the RLC scenario,energy consumption and emissions of SO_(2),NO_(x),CO,PM_(10),PM_(2.5),VOCs,NH_(3),CO_(2),CH_(4),and N_(2)O are projected to decrease by 72.0%,30.0%,55.6%,56.0%,38.6%,39.7%,51.5%,66.1%,65.5%,55.4%,and 52.8%,respectively.This study provides fundamental data support for subsequent numerical simulations.展开更多
Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corporation （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportat...Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corporation （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportation fuels. Using the scenario-based analysis method, this paper analyzes how the output and emission related properties, including cetane number, and sulfur and aromatics contents of diesel produced by CNPC, will vary with changes in the configuration of diesel production units in the next 5-10 years. The results showed that, to upgrade its diesel, CNPC needs to adjust its diesel pool by decreasing the share of fluid catalytic cracking （FCC） diesel and increasing the shares of hydrocracking （HDC） and hydrotreating （HDT） diesel. Furthermore, to produce ultra-low-sulfur diesel, straight-run diesel as well as poor diesel blendstocks such as FCC diesel and coker diesel should be hydrotreated before being blended into finished diesel. Developing highly efficient HDC and HDT catalysts and corresponding processes is the key to CNPC economically producing more and cleaner diesel.展开更多
Based on data of questionnaire and field survey and two developing models of Business As Usual (BAU) and the Intensive Urbanization (IU), this article, taking Wuwei City, a medium size city and typical oasis arid area...Based on data of questionnaire and field survey and two developing models of Business As Usual (BAU) and the Intensive Urbanization (IU), this article, taking Wuwei City, a medium size city and typical oasis arid area in Gansu Province with very vulnerable and sensitive natural environment but long history of oasis economy, as an example, evaluated the sustainability of its environment and analyzed the scenarios of Wuwei’s household energy consumption, waste discharge in transportation industry, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, by the integration of the systematical dynamics model Stella and Polestar language to simulate the future development of the research area. The results showed that, first, the developing model of IU was propitious to Wuwei City named for oasis economy and vulnerable natural environment. The strategy of "Intensive Urbanization" can change the structure of energy utilization, and improve the efficiency of energy utilization. Second, the proportion of domestic energy consumption will decrease with industrialization and economic development, while that of tertiary industry, secondary industry and transportation will gradually grow up according to strategy of "Intensive Urbanization". Third, the Wuwei City is facing a severe eco-environmental crisis under the conventional patterns of development and a better future under a sustainable urbanization scenario, in the next 10 to 20 years. The different developing trends were clarified and the relative countermeasures were put forward for the policy makers according to the driving forces.展开更多
Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corp. （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportation fu...Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corp. （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportation fuels. Using the scenario-based analysis method, this paper analyzes how the emission related properties, including antiknock index, and sulfur, olefin, benzene and aromatics contents of gasoline produced by CNPC, vary with the change in the configuration of gasoline production units in the future 5-15 years. The results showed that for CNPC to upgrade its gasoline, the share of fluid catalytic cracking （FCC） naphtha must be reduced, but just increasing reformate or alkylate and isomerate will result in excessive increase in benzene and aromatics contents or a great loss of gasoline octane number. Therefore, CNPC should suitably control the capacity of its FCC units and increase the capacity of reformer, alkylation and isomerization units. Most importantly, CNPC should dramatically expand the capacity of its hydrotreating or non-hydrotreating gasoline upgrading units to decrease the olefin and sulfur contents in FCC gasoline that takes a dominant share of about 80% in the gasoline pool of China.展开更多
[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of Ch...[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of China＇s cement industry＂ model was established to simulate energy conservation and emission reduction in China＇s cement industry from 2010 to 2040 in different technologic situations. E ResultJ To save ener- gy and reduce CO2 emissions, new dry process kiln has priority over other technologies or measures, followed by equipment enlargement, mechani- cal shaft kiln, power generation system based on waste heat, as well as high-efficiency and energy-saving grinding technology, and new prepara- tion technology. If all the advanced technologies and measures are adopted, energy consumption and C02 emissions can be reduced by about 40.76% and 42.97% respectively. [ Condusion] LEAP of model is suitable for analyzing energy saving and emission reducing in China＇s cement industry and other industrial fields.展开更多
Land use/cover change （LUCC） models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. Howeve...Land use/cover change （LUCC） models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. However, no single model is able to capture all the essential key processes to explore land use change at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. Taken Ganzhou District as a case study, this paper describes an integrated analysis （IA） ap- proach by combining with system dynamics （SD） model, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model and landscape indices method to analyze land use dynamics at different spatial-temporal scales. The SD model was used to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during 2000-2035. The LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply by using the CLUE-S model, and Kappa values of the map simulation are 0.86 and 0.81 in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized sce- nario managements of land use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for better understanding the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used as a source data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based on different un- derlying surface of LUCC.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71704178)Beijing Municipal Excellent Talents Foundation(No.2017000020124G133)Major consulting project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering(Nos.2023-JB-08,2022-PP-03).
文摘The proposal of carbon neutrality target makes decarbonization and hydrogenation typical features of future energy development in China.With a wide range of application scenarios,hydrogen energy will experience rapid growth in production and consumption.To formulate an effective hydrogen energy development strategy for the future of China,this study employs the departmental scenario analysis method to calculate and evaluate the future consumption of hydrogen energy in China’s heavy industry,transportation,electricity,and other related fields.Multidimensional technical parameters are selected and predicted accurately and reliably in combination with different development scenarios.The findings indicate that the period from 2030 to 2050 will enjoy rapid development of hydrogen energy,having an average annual growth rate of 2%to 4%.The technological progress and breakthroughs scenario has the greatest potential for hydrogen demand scale among the four development scenarios.Under this scenario,the total demand for hydrogen energy is expected to reach 446.37Mt in 2060.Thetransportation sector will be the sector with the greatest potential for hydrogen deployment growth from 2023 to 2060,which is expected to rise from 0.038Mt to about 163.18Mt,with the ambitious growth in the future.Additionally,hydrogen energy has a considerable development potential in the steel sector,and the trend of de-refueling coke by hydrogenation in this sector will be imperative for this energy-intensive industries.
基金funded as part of the Swiss NFI program by the Federal Office of Environment FOEN and the Federal Institute for Forest,Snow and Landscape research WSL。
文摘Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.
基金supported by the Hundred Talents Program,CAS and the Natural Science Foundation of China(30030090,39830220).
文摘A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general a-greed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291* * * (n= 48) and 0.6431* * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg, 0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71573172,51709168).
文摘The framework of fatigue factors is constructed to reduce the number of maritime accidents caused by human fatigue.Based on the study of maritime human fatigue,by screening and classifying it,there are 15 fatigue factors,which can be classified into 4 types:sleep,rest and rhythm;work factors;personal conditions;environmental factors.These factors are regarded as the variables for constructing scenarios.The importance,uncertainty,influence and dependence of variables and variable pairs were assessed by using morphological analysis,quantitative scales and correlation matrices.Ship movement and workload are selected as the two key variables,which are regarded as the axes of generating scenarios.One of the scenarios is selected as the typical scenario to illustrate the relationship between the causes of fatigue.Then,the analysis framework is constructed according to the fatigue factors relationship,and several potential solutions are proposed,which include the development of foresighted and flexible work plans,and the application of wearable facilities to improve monitoring and assessment systems.The proposed framework lays a theoretical foundation for studying maritime human fatigue,and scenario analysis can provide an effective strategy for reducing crews'fatigue.
基金financial support by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No.2018YFC1509006)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71874096)+1 种基金the Macao SAR Government Higher Education Fundthe Macao University of Science and Technology (Grant No.FRG-19-008-MSB)。
文摘Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China("973" Program,No.2013CB035906)Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin(No.JCYBJC19500)the Foundation of Innovative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51321065)
文摘The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.
基金supported by National Key Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs Funded by Ministry of Science and Technology of China in the 11th Five Year Plan (Grant No. 2007BAC03A12)
文摘Low-carbon economic development has become a.fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of North China. Tianjin＇s energy demand and CO2 emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 t in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the background of global responding to climate change, China will likely be requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions during 2020-2030, which will inevitable reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormously. Tianjin should make deployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carbon economic development as important strategic mission. First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing energy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin＇s future CO2 emissions will continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin should get ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology and talent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional meehanisms conducive to low-carbon development from now on. starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technology research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new and renewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72304192)Hongyi Xie acknowledges the support of the China Scholarship Council Program(No.202406100207).
文摘China’s inland waterway transport sector is facing the challenge of achieving carbon neutrality goals amidst its rapid development.However,the carbon mitigation potential of targeted interventions within inland waterway transport networks remains poorly understood.We construct a port-to-port carbon emission inventory for the inland waterway transport sector from 2019 to 2050.Jiangxi province,a typical dynamically developing region,is selected as the study area given its plans for the large-scale construction of new inland waterways in the future.Our results reveal that while waterway optimization improves cargo transport efficiency,it may lead to higher carbon emissions by 2030.However,with intensified mitigation efforts,it can contribute to significant emission reductions by 2050.In terms of strategic interventions,prioritizing transport technology upgrades(e.g.,improve energy efficiency)in the short-term,while transitioning to alternative fuels in the long-term,could reduce to 0.76 Mt emissions by 2050,representing a 72%decrease compared to 2019 levels.Our findings from the typical complex waterway transport network in China offer valuable insights for managing carbon emissions in inland waterways globally,especially in regions contemplating the expansion of their inland waterway systems.
基金National Basic Research Program of China, 973 Program: 2009CB421307National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41101039 National Natural Science Foundation of China (40971282)
文摘How to coordinate arid eco-environmental protection and oasis agricultural development and avoid desertification is a key problem in achieving the sustainable development of oasis human- earth systems. We analyzed the temporal characteristics and overall tendency of an arid oasis agricultural production system in Yining County, China by means of emergy methods and ternary diagrams theory. From 1989–2008, total emergy input and output of the oasis agricultural system in Yining County had a trend of sustainable development. According to the sustainability analysis with emergy indices, the agricultural production systems in Yining County were still at a sustainable status. However, the emergy-based sustainability index （ESI） followed a decreasing trend. Scenario analysis of the sustainability lines based on ternary diagrams showed that both the F （input from economic component） and N （input from nonrenewable resource） leading modes had limitations in the study case. The agricultural production of Yining County should adopt the R leading mode, in which the percentage of non-renewable resources in the local system will be kept roughly unchanged, while the fraction of purchased inputs and renewable resources will be decreased in synchronism. In this way, the contribution from local renewable resources to agricultural production will be increased, and sustainable development ensured.
基金Funding for the study was provided by the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities(the 111 Project)(B07002)the mega-projects for science research for water environment improvement(No.2009ZX07526-005-04).
文摘The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth.In the study,a typical peri-urban river,Nansha River,was selected as a case study to discuss the scheme of peri-urban river rehabilitation.Located in the north part of the Beijing central region,the Nansha River watershed has been designated as an ecologically friendly garden-style area with high-tech industry parks and upscale residential zones.However,the Nansha River is currently seriously contaminated by urban and rural pollutants from both nonpoint sources(NPS)and point sources(PS).In this study,the pollutant loads from point sources and nonpoint sources in the Nansha River watershed were first assessed.A coupled model,derived from the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program,was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality in the Nansha River.According to the characteristics of the typical peri-urban river,three different PS and NPS control scenarios were designed and examined by modeling analyses.Based on the results of the scenario analysis,a river rehabilitation scheme was recommended for implementation.
文摘Vanadium is a vital strategic resource, and vanadium metabolism is an important part of the national socio-economic system of China. This study conducts accounting and scenario analysis on the life cycle of vanadium metabolism in China. Based on the character- istics of vanadium life cycle and substance flow analysis （SFA） framework, we present a quantitative evaluation of a static anthropogenic vanadium life cycle for the year 2010. Results show that anthropogenic vanadium consumption, stocks, and new domestic scrap are at 98.2, 21.2, and 4.1 kt, respectively; new scrap is usually discarded. The overall utilization ratio of vanadium is 32.2%. A large amount of vanadium is stockpiled into tailings, debris, slags, and other spent solids. A scenario analysis was conducted to analyze the future developmental trend of vanadium metabolism in China based on the SFA frame- work and the qualitative analysis of technology advance- ment and socio-economic development. The baseline year was set as 2010. Several indicators were proposed to simulate different scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The scenario analysis indicates that the next 20 years is a critical period for the vanadium industry in China. This paper discusses relevant policies that contribute to the improvement of sustainable vanadium utilization in China.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Development Fund,Macao SAR,China(Nos.0033/2022/AFJ and 0011/2023/AMJ)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2023A1515012017).
文摘With the rapid development of aviation industry and its increasing impact on the global climate change,the contributions of carbon emissions frominternational flights are attracting more and more attention worldwide.This study,taking Macao as the aviation hub,established the cross-border aviation carbon emission evaluation model to explore dynamic carbon emissions and net-zero path of international flights.The aviation hubmainly covers 58 routes and five types of civil aircraft from 12 countries or regions during 2000-2022.The results show that the aviation transportation in Macao emitted about 1.44 million tons CO_(2)eq in 2019,which is high 3.6 times that of 2000.The COVID-19 has led to a rapid decline in aviation carbon emissions in a short period of time,carbon emissions in 2020 decreased by 80%compared to 2019.In terms of cumulative carbon emissions from 2000 to 2019,the A321 and A320 Airbus contribute to 80%of carbon emissions.And the Chinese mainland(37%)and Taiwan(29%)are the main sources of emissions.In 2000-2019,the proportion of carbon emissions from China(including Taiwan and Hong Kong)decrease from 91%to 53%,while the contribution from Southeast Asia(from 5% to 26%),Japan and South Korea(from 2% to 19%)keep the growth trends.In the optimal scenario(B3C3),net zero emissions of cross-border aviation in Macao can be not achieved,and there is still only by removing 0.3 million tons CO_(2)eq.Emission reduction technology and new energy usage are priorities for the aviation emission reduction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (32160292, 32471681, and 32201575)Jiangxi “Double Thousand Plan”(jxsq2020101080)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (20224BAB205008, 20224BAB213033, and 20242BAB2538)Jiangxi Province Science and Technology+Water Resources” Joint Plan Project (2023KSG01001 and 2022KSG01010)
文摘Accurately forecasting ecosystem services is critical for enhancing our understanding and improving management practices within nature reserves,particularly in light of climate change,land use/cover changes,and their complex interactions.However,existing studies often fail to fully consider vegetation response,constituting a gap in the comprehensive assessment of changes in ecosystem services.Therefore,a coupled model framework integrating climate change,land use change,and vegetation dynamics was developed to allow for the simulation of dynamic ecosystem service scenarios throughout the twenty-first century.The Jiulianshan National Nature Reserve in Jiangxi Province was considered as the study area.The results showed that ecosystem services and their synergistic effects will be optimized under scenarios that emphasize strict protection of ecological lands and incorporating the SSP1-2.6 scenario.However,sustaining optimized ecosystem services poses significant challenges in scenarios characterized by resource-intensive development and ongoing climate warming,as in the SSP5-8.5 scenario.Notably,discernible variations exist in balancing and synergizing the management of ecosystem services across diverse land uses and forest types.Our study underscores the importance of integrating vegetation response into the framework of ecosystem service forecasting,which is essential for assisting nature reserves in effectively addressing the multifaceted risks associated with climate change and rapid socio-economic development.
基金supported by Hainan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.721RC525).
文摘Guangdong’s carbon emissions have surpassed the world’s 11th largest emitter.It is indispensable for this province to find a robust cost-effective strategy for reducing carbon emissions.This study employed the Low Emissions Analysis Platform model,marginal cost curves,and Monte Carlo methods to simulate the energy consumption,carbon emissions,and economic benefits of emission reduction in Guangdong Province from 2020 to 2030 under the application of various structural optimization policies and energy-saving technologies.The main findings are as follows:In 2030,Guangdong Province is projected to achieve a carbon emission reduction of 273.6 to 304.6million t CO_(2eq),with a total reduction cost ranging from 1030.9 to 1452.2 billion yuan.Increasing the share of renewable energy,which still has significant growth potential,can lead to a 1.4 times greater reduction in carbon emissions compared to the application of energy-saving technologies,despite the latter yielding 2.3 times more energy savings.The emission reduction measures with net-cost can contribute 71.4%to the total carbon reduction of the province,being much larger than those with net benefits.The power sector plays a critical role in carbon emission reduction within Guangdong Province,with its various measures exerting the most substantial impact on emission reduction quantity and cost,contributing cumulative variance contributions of 90.1%and 84.3%,respectively.It has relatively large potential for emission reduction and relatively low cost of structural adjustment.
基金supported by the 2020 National Supercomputing Zhengzhou Center Innovation Ecosystem Construction Technology Project(No.201400210700)Zhengzhou PM2.5 and O3 Collaborative Control and Monitoring Project(No.20220347A).
文摘Recently,the transportation sector in China has gradually become the main source of urban air pollution and primary driver of carbon emissions growth.Considering air pollutants and greenhouse gases come from the same emission sources,it is necessary to establish an updated high-resolution emission inventory for the transportation sector in Central China,themost polluted region in China.The inventory includes on-road mobile,non-roadmobile,oil storage and transportation,and covers 9 types of air pollutants and 3 types of greenhouse gases.Based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP)model,the emissions of pollutants were predicted for the period from2020 to 2035 in different scenarios.Results showed that in 2020,emissions of SO_(2),NO_(x),CO,PM_(10),PM_(2.5),VOCs,NH_(3),BC,OC,CO_(2),CH_(4),and N_(2)O in Henan Province were 27.5,503.2,878.6,20.1,17.4,222.1,21.5,9.4,2.9,92,077.9,6.0,and 10.4 kilotons,respectively.Energy demand and pollutant emissions in Henan Province are simulated under four scenarios(Baseline Scenario(BS),Pollution Abatement Scenario(PA),Green Transportation Scenario(GT),and Reinforcing Low Carbon Scenario(RLC)).The collaborative emission reduction effect is most significant in the RLC scenario,followed by the GT scenario.By 2035,under the RLC scenario,energy consumption and emissions of SO_(2),NO_(x),CO,PM_(10),PM_(2.5),VOCs,NH_(3),CO_(2),CH_(4),and N_(2)O are projected to decrease by 72.0%,30.0%,55.6%,56.0%,38.6%,39.7%,51.5%,66.1%,65.5%,55.4%,and 52.8%,respectively.This study provides fundamental data support for subsequent numerical simulations.
文摘Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corporation （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportation fuels. Using the scenario-based analysis method, this paper analyzes how the output and emission related properties, including cetane number, and sulfur and aromatics contents of diesel produced by CNPC, will vary with changes in the configuration of diesel production units in the next 5-10 years. The results showed that, to upgrade its diesel, CNPC needs to adjust its diesel pool by decreasing the share of fluid catalytic cracking （FCC） diesel and increasing the shares of hydrocracking （HDC） and hydrotreating （HDT） diesel. Furthermore, to produce ultra-low-sulfur diesel, straight-run diesel as well as poor diesel blendstocks such as FCC diesel and coker diesel should be hydrotreated before being blended into finished diesel. Developing highly efficient HDC and HDT catalysts and corresponding processes is the key to CNPC economically producing more and cleaner diesel.
基金Under theauspicesofKey Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No .90102013) and KeyInnovationSub-projectof Chinese Academy of Sciences(No .KZCX1-10-07-04 )
文摘Based on data of questionnaire and field survey and two developing models of Business As Usual (BAU) and the Intensive Urbanization (IU), this article, taking Wuwei City, a medium size city and typical oasis arid area in Gansu Province with very vulnerable and sensitive natural environment but long history of oasis economy, as an example, evaluated the sustainability of its environment and analyzed the scenarios of Wuwei’s household energy consumption, waste discharge in transportation industry, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, by the integration of the systematical dynamics model Stella and Polestar language to simulate the future development of the research area. The results showed that, first, the developing model of IU was propitious to Wuwei City named for oasis economy and vulnerable natural environment. The strategy of "Intensive Urbanization" can change the structure of energy utilization, and improve the efficiency of energy utilization. Second, the proportion of domestic energy consumption will decrease with industrialization and economic development, while that of tertiary industry, secondary industry and transportation will gradually grow up according to strategy of "Intensive Urbanization". Third, the Wuwei City is facing a severe eco-environmental crisis under the conventional patterns of development and a better future under a sustainable urbanization scenario, in the next 10 to 20 years. The different developing trends were clarified and the relative countermeasures were put forward for the policy makers according to the driving forces.
文摘Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corp. （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportation fuels. Using the scenario-based analysis method, this paper analyzes how the emission related properties, including antiknock index, and sulfur, olefin, benzene and aromatics contents of gasoline produced by CNPC, vary with the change in the configuration of gasoline production units in the future 5-15 years. The results showed that for CNPC to upgrade its gasoline, the share of fluid catalytic cracking （FCC） naphtha must be reduced, but just increasing reformate or alkylate and isomerate will result in excessive increase in benzene and aromatics contents or a great loss of gasoline octane number. Therefore, CNPC should suitably control the capacity of its FCC units and increase the capacity of reformer, alkylation and isomerization units. Most importantly, CNPC should dramatically expand the capacity of its hydrotreating or non-hydrotreating gasoline upgrading units to decrease the olefin and sulfur contents in FCC gasoline that takes a dominant share of about 80% in the gasoline pool of China.
基金Supported by Special Project for Developing National Major Scientific Instruments and Equipments (2011YQ060111)Scientific Research Project of Environmental Protection in Commonweal Industry(201009032)
文摘[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of China＇s cement industry＂ model was established to simulate energy conservation and emission reduction in China＇s cement industry from 2010 to 2040 in different technologic situations. E ResultJ To save ener- gy and reduce CO2 emissions, new dry process kiln has priority over other technologies or measures, followed by equipment enlargement, mechani- cal shaft kiln, power generation system based on waste heat, as well as high-efficiency and energy-saving grinding technology, and new prepara- tion technology. If all the advanced technologies and measures are adopted, energy consumption and C02 emissions can be reduced by about 40.76% and 42.97% respectively. [ Condusion] LEAP of model is suitable for analyzing energy saving and emission reducing in China＇s cement industry and other industrial fields.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Contract No. 91125019)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Contract Nos.40971291,40901291)
文摘Land use/cover change （LUCC） models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. However, no single model is able to capture all the essential key processes to explore land use change at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. Taken Ganzhou District as a case study, this paper describes an integrated analysis （IA） ap- proach by combining with system dynamics （SD） model, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model and landscape indices method to analyze land use dynamics at different spatial-temporal scales. The SD model was used to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during 2000-2035. The LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply by using the CLUE-S model, and Kappa values of the map simulation are 0.86 and 0.81 in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized sce- nario managements of land use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for better understanding the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used as a source data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based on different un- derlying surface of LUCC.
