Flood regulation service(FRS)stands as one of the key benefits that people get from the ecosystem.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the relationship between supply and demand of FRS would incr...Flood regulation service(FRS)stands as one of the key benefits that people get from the ecosystem.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the relationship between supply and demand of FRS would increasingly affect regional flood risk and sustainable development.However,there was currently a lack of systematic study on the future supply-demand relationship of FRS in the flood-vulnerable area undergoing rapidly development in China.This study integrated the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)datasets and climate model data to quantify the supply-demand ratio(SDR)of FRS in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),China from 2020 to 2050.Trend analyses were conducted using linear regres-sion,Theil-Sen median estimation,and Hurst exponent analysis,while key drivers of SDR changes were identified and quantified through the Lindeman-Merenda-Gold(LMG)method between 2021 and 2050.Results show that the supply of FRS in the YRD was generally insufficient to meet the demand.The imbalanced subbasins covered 88.24%of the total study area,with 34.48%of this imbal-anced area concentrated in the Southeastern Basin in China.During 2021 and 2050,the imbalance of FRS supply-demand relationship would largely aggravate in the YRD,of which the aggravated area would account for 77.23%.Under different scenarios,the SDR for FRS would decrease significantly,with rates ranging from-5.45×10^(-4) to-2.06×10^(-4)(P<0.05).Especially,the decline rate of SDR in the YRD Basin(DeltaB)reached 2.92 times that the average of YRD.Human activities were the primary factors that exacerbated the imbalance in FRS supply-demand relationship,of which the relative contribution rate exceeds 75%.Particular attention should be direc-ted toward critical regions like the Southeast Basin in China(SEB)and DeltaB where substantial aggravation of supply-demand imbal-ances of FRS is projected.展开更多
Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan M...Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42101251)。
文摘Flood regulation service(FRS)stands as one of the key benefits that people get from the ecosystem.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the relationship between supply and demand of FRS would increasingly affect regional flood risk and sustainable development.However,there was currently a lack of systematic study on the future supply-demand relationship of FRS in the flood-vulnerable area undergoing rapidly development in China.This study integrated the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)datasets and climate model data to quantify the supply-demand ratio(SDR)of FRS in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),China from 2020 to 2050.Trend analyses were conducted using linear regres-sion,Theil-Sen median estimation,and Hurst exponent analysis,while key drivers of SDR changes were identified and quantified through the Lindeman-Merenda-Gold(LMG)method between 2021 and 2050.Results show that the supply of FRS in the YRD was generally insufficient to meet the demand.The imbalanced subbasins covered 88.24%of the total study area,with 34.48%of this imbal-anced area concentrated in the Southeastern Basin in China.During 2021 and 2050,the imbalance of FRS supply-demand relationship would largely aggravate in the YRD,of which the aggravated area would account for 77.23%.Under different scenarios,the SDR for FRS would decrease significantly,with rates ranging from-5.45×10^(-4) to-2.06×10^(-4)(P<0.05).Especially,the decline rate of SDR in the YRD Basin(DeltaB)reached 2.92 times that the average of YRD.Human activities were the primary factors that exacerbated the imbalance in FRS supply-demand relationship,of which the relative contribution rate exceeds 75%.Particular attention should be direc-ted toward critical regions like the Southeast Basin in China(SEB)and DeltaB where substantial aggravation of supply-demand imbal-ances of FRS is projected.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261026,41971094,42161025)the Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program(22ZD6FA005)+1 种基金the Higher Education Innovation Foundation of Education Department of Gansu Province(2022A041)the open foundation of Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone(XJYS0907-2023-01).
文摘Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.
