The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13%to 30%of the time since 1963.This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets,but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum,...The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13%to 30%of the time since 1963.This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets,but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum,which posits that the stock market is micro efficient,but macro inefficient.I develop a new model to measure potential inefficiency at macro level.Inefficiency in price(P)is driven by earnings(EPS)and/or valuation(P/E).At the peak of the TMT-bubble in 1999/2000,both factors were in play,while only earnings assumptions were inefficient before the Great Financial Crisis in 2008/09.The model developed show expected results in terms of relative efficiency for Developed vs.Emerging Markets and for Dow Jones vs.Nasdaq.Parts of academia seems to accept a different definition of market efficiency at micro level compared to macro level.At macro level,a standard“price vs.fair value”definition seems to be generally accepted,while at micro level,a relative“price vs.price”definition seems to be broadly used.The latter way of thinking has historically contributed to price bubbles.Numerous examples of stock prices that deviate significantly from their fair value in days,weeks and months and doubtful methods for measuring efficiency at micro level cast doubt about the micro efficiency claim part of Samuelson’s Dictum.展开更多
"Samuelson's Concern" and "Kindleberger Trap" are cited as justifications for trade protectionism under the Trump administration. After reviewing Samuelson's and Kindleberger's trade th..."Samuelson's Concern" and "Kindleberger Trap" are cited as justifications for trade protectionism under the Trump administration. After reviewing Samuelson's and Kindleberger's trade theories, this paper finds that both Samuelson and Kindleberger are actually proponents of free trade, and that their common concern is falling US competitiveness due to its economic model, domestic institutional rules, and unilateralism. Both the "Samuelson's Concern" and "Kindleberger Trap" are distortions of Samuelson's and Kindleberger's original theories and the arguments' defense of protectionism cannot overcome the challenges confronting the U.S. and will destabilize international economic order.展开更多
Although momentum strategies result in abnormal profitability,thereby challenging the efficient market hypothesis(EMH),concerns persist regarding their reliability due to their significant volatility and susceptibilit...Although momentum strategies result in abnormal profitability,thereby challenging the efficient market hypothesis(EMH),concerns persist regarding their reliability due to their significant volatility and susceptibility to substantial losses.In this study,we investigate the limitations of these strategies and propose a solution.Our literature review reveals that the volatile profits are due to statistical analyses that assume the persistence of past patterns,leading to unreliable results in out-of-sample scenarios when underlying mechanisms evolve.Statistical analysis,the predominant method in financial economics,often proves inadequate in explaining market fluctuations and predicting crashes.To overcome these limitations,a paradigm shift towards dynamic approaches is essential.Drawing inspiration from three groundbreaking economists,we introduce the extended Samuelson model(ESM),a dynamic model that connects price changes to market participant actions.This paradigm transition uncovers several significant findings.First,timely signals indicate momentum initiations,cessations,and reversals,validated using S&P 500 data from 1999 to 2023.Second,ESM predicts the 1987 Black Monday crash weeks in advance,offering a new perspective on its underlying cause.Third,we classify sequential stock price data into eight distinct market states,including their thresholds for transitions,laying the groundwork for market trend predictions and risk assessments.Fourth,the ESM is shown to be a compelling alternative to EMH,offering potent explanatory and predictive power based on a single,realistic assumption.Our findings suggest that ESM has the potential to provide policymakers with proactive tools,enabling financial institutions to enhance their risk assessment and management strategies.展开更多
针对触摸屏监控系统不能满足大中型立体仓库对数据进行存储和处理的功能需求,在Visual Studio 2019集成开发环境中,采用C#语言开发一套立体仓库上位机控制系统。以多线程的方式实时读取库位信息;以S7-1200 PLC作为主控制器,设计产品的...针对触摸屏监控系统不能满足大中型立体仓库对数据进行存储和处理的功能需求,在Visual Studio 2019集成开发环境中,采用C#语言开发一套立体仓库上位机控制系统。以多线程的方式实时读取库位信息;以S7-1200 PLC作为主控制器,设计产品的自动入库和自动出库程序流程,采用SCL语言设计了库位先进先出的控制程序。C#和S7-1200 PLC之间采用S7通信的方式控制立体仓库的出入库操作和库位信息采集,3年的现场运行情况表明,整个系统能在上位机上对立体仓库进行手动控制和自动控制,能精确快速地进行入库出库操作,运行平稳,上位机上能正确实时显示库位信息,达到了预期的结果。展开更多
食源性蛋白淀粉样纤维化聚集具有独特的结构特性,蚕豆11S蛋白(fava bean 11S protein,FP)作为一种可持续蛋白资源,表现出巨大的潜力。该研究探究了蚕豆11S蛋白淀粉样纤维化聚集(fibrotic aggregation of 11S protein in fava bean,FPF)...食源性蛋白淀粉样纤维化聚集具有独特的结构特性,蚕豆11S蛋白(fava bean 11S protein,FP)作为一种可持续蛋白资源,表现出巨大的潜力。该研究探究了蚕豆11S蛋白淀粉样纤维化聚集(fibrotic aggregation of 11S protein in fava bean,FPF)在形成过程中的动态演变,包括其结构表征和功能特性。6 g/100 mL的FP通过酸热处理(pH 2,85℃)不同时间(0~24 h)后得到FPF。处理后的样品通过硫黄素T、荧光、二酪氨酸、透射电子显微镜、傅里叶红外光谱等进行结构表征,结果表明FP先在酸热过程中水解成多肽,再自组装成富含β-折叠结构的FPF(由0 h的34.44%增加到24 h的45.89%)。通过起泡性、乳化性和凝胶特性等对FPF功能特性进行表征,与FP相比,反应24 h后的FPF具有更好的起泡性、乳化性和凝胶特性。此外,FPF在体外细胞实验中没有表现出细胞毒性。研究结果为FPF的形成规律提供了理论支撑。展开更多
文摘The stock market in the form of the S&P 500 is estimated to be inefficient in 13%to 30%of the time since 1963.This is contrary to the theory of efficient capital markets,but in accordance with Samuelson’s Dictum,which posits that the stock market is micro efficient,but macro inefficient.I develop a new model to measure potential inefficiency at macro level.Inefficiency in price(P)is driven by earnings(EPS)and/or valuation(P/E).At the peak of the TMT-bubble in 1999/2000,both factors were in play,while only earnings assumptions were inefficient before the Great Financial Crisis in 2008/09.The model developed show expected results in terms of relative efficiency for Developed vs.Emerging Markets and for Dow Jones vs.Nasdaq.Parts of academia seems to accept a different definition of market efficiency at micro level compared to macro level.At macro level,a standard“price vs.fair value”definition seems to be generally accepted,while at micro level,a relative“price vs.price”definition seems to be broadly used.The latter way of thinking has historically contributed to price bubbles.Numerous examples of stock prices that deviate significantly from their fair value in days,weeks and months and doubtful methods for measuring efficiency at micro level cast doubt about the micro efficiency claim part of Samuelson’s Dictum.
文摘"Samuelson's Concern" and "Kindleberger Trap" are cited as justifications for trade protectionism under the Trump administration. After reviewing Samuelson's and Kindleberger's trade theories, this paper finds that both Samuelson and Kindleberger are actually proponents of free trade, and that their common concern is falling US competitiveness due to its economic model, domestic institutional rules, and unilateralism. Both the "Samuelson's Concern" and "Kindleberger Trap" are distortions of Samuelson's and Kindleberger's original theories and the arguments' defense of protectionism cannot overcome the challenges confronting the U.S. and will destabilize international economic order.
文摘Although momentum strategies result in abnormal profitability,thereby challenging the efficient market hypothesis(EMH),concerns persist regarding their reliability due to their significant volatility and susceptibility to substantial losses.In this study,we investigate the limitations of these strategies and propose a solution.Our literature review reveals that the volatile profits are due to statistical analyses that assume the persistence of past patterns,leading to unreliable results in out-of-sample scenarios when underlying mechanisms evolve.Statistical analysis,the predominant method in financial economics,often proves inadequate in explaining market fluctuations and predicting crashes.To overcome these limitations,a paradigm shift towards dynamic approaches is essential.Drawing inspiration from three groundbreaking economists,we introduce the extended Samuelson model(ESM),a dynamic model that connects price changes to market participant actions.This paradigm transition uncovers several significant findings.First,timely signals indicate momentum initiations,cessations,and reversals,validated using S&P 500 data from 1999 to 2023.Second,ESM predicts the 1987 Black Monday crash weeks in advance,offering a new perspective on its underlying cause.Third,we classify sequential stock price data into eight distinct market states,including their thresholds for transitions,laying the groundwork for market trend predictions and risk assessments.Fourth,the ESM is shown to be a compelling alternative to EMH,offering potent explanatory and predictive power based on a single,realistic assumption.Our findings suggest that ESM has the potential to provide policymakers with proactive tools,enabling financial institutions to enhance their risk assessment and management strategies.
文摘针对触摸屏监控系统不能满足大中型立体仓库对数据进行存储和处理的功能需求,在Visual Studio 2019集成开发环境中,采用C#语言开发一套立体仓库上位机控制系统。以多线程的方式实时读取库位信息;以S7-1200 PLC作为主控制器,设计产品的自动入库和自动出库程序流程,采用SCL语言设计了库位先进先出的控制程序。C#和S7-1200 PLC之间采用S7通信的方式控制立体仓库的出入库操作和库位信息采集,3年的现场运行情况表明,整个系统能在上位机上对立体仓库进行手动控制和自动控制,能精确快速地进行入库出库操作,运行平稳,上位机上能正确实时显示库位信息,达到了预期的结果。
