Sample size re-estimation is essential in oncology studies. However, the use of blinded sample size reassessment for survival data has been rarely reported. Based on the density function of the exponential distributio...Sample size re-estimation is essential in oncology studies. However, the use of blinded sample size reassessment for survival data has been rarely reported. Based on the density function of the exponential distribution, an expectation-maximization（EM） algorithm of the hazard ratio was derived, and several simulation studies were used to verify its applications. The method had obvious variation in the hazard ratio estimates and overestimation for the relatively small hazard ratios. Our studies showed that the stability of the EM estimation results directly correlated with the sample size, the convergence of the EM algorithm was impacted by the initial values, and a balanced design produced the best estimates. No reliable blinded sample size re-estimation inference can be made in our studies, but the results provide useful information to steer the practitioners in this field from repeating the same endeavor.展开更多
The investigation of whether sediment samples contain representative grain size distribution information is important for the accurate extraction of sediment characteristics and conduct of related sedimentary record s...The investigation of whether sediment samples contain representative grain size distribution information is important for the accurate extraction of sediment characteristics and conduct of related sedimentary record studies.This study comparatively analyzed the numerical and qualitative differences and the degree of correlation of 36 sets of the characteristic parameters of surface sediment parallel sample grain size distribution from three sampling profiles at Jinsha Bay Beach in Zhanjiang,western Guangdong.At each sampling point,five parallel subsamples were established at intervals of 0,10,20,50,and 100 cm along the coastline.The research findings indicate the following:1)relatively large differences in the mean values of the different parallel samples(0.19–0.34Φ),with smaller differences observed in other characteristic grain sizes(D_(10),D_(50),and D_(90));2)small differences in characteristic values among various parallel sample grain size parameters,with at least 33%of the combinations of qualitative results showing inconsistency;3)50%of the regression equations between the skewness of different parallel samples displaying no significant correlation;4)relative deviations of−47.91%to 27.63%and−49.20%to 2.08%existing between the particle size parameters of a single sample and parallel samples(with the average obtained)at intervals of 10 and 50 cm,respectively.As such,small spatial differences,even within 100 cm,can considerably affect grain size parameters.Given the uncertain reasons underlying the representativeness of the samples,which may only cover the area immediately surrounding the sampling station,researchers are advised to design parallel sample collection strategies based on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the parameters of interest during sediment sample collection.This study provides a typical case of the comparative analysis of parallel sample grain size parameters,with a focus on small spatial beach sediment,which contributes to the enhanced understanding of the accuracy and reliability of sediment sample collection strategies and extraction of grain size information.展开更多
The longitudinal dispersion of the projectile in shooting tests of two-dimensional trajectory corrections fused with fixed canards is extremely large that it sometimes exceeds the correction ability of the correction ...The longitudinal dispersion of the projectile in shooting tests of two-dimensional trajectory corrections fused with fixed canards is extremely large that it sometimes exceeds the correction ability of the correction fuse actuator.The impact point easily deviates from the target,and thus the correction result cannot be readily evaluated.However,the cost of shooting tests is considerably high to conduct many tests for data collection.To address this issue,this study proposes an aiming method for shooting tests based on small sample size.The proposed method uses the Bootstrap method to expand the test data;repeatedly iterates and corrects the position of the simulated theoretical impact points through an improved compatibility test method;and dynamically adjusts the weight of the prior distribution of simulation results based on Kullback-Leibler divergence,which to some extent avoids the real data being"submerged"by the simulation data and achieves the fusion Bayesian estimation of the dispersion center.The experimental results show that when the simulation accuracy is sufficiently high,the proposed method yields a smaller mean-square deviation in estimating the dispersion center and higher shooting accuracy than those of the three comparison methods,which is more conducive to reflecting the effect of the control algorithm and facilitating test personnel to iterate their proposed structures and algorithms.;in addition,this study provides a knowledge base for further comprehensive studies in the future.展开更多
The sap flow method is widely used to estimate forest transpiration.However,at the individual tree level it has spatiotemporal variations due to the impacts of environmental conditions and spatial relationships among ...The sap flow method is widely used to estimate forest transpiration.However,at the individual tree level it has spatiotemporal variations due to the impacts of environmental conditions and spatial relationships among trees.Therefore,an in-depth understanding of the coupling effects of these factors is important for designing sap flow measurement methods and performing accurate assessments of stand scale transpiration.This study is based on observations of sap flux density(SF_(d))of nine sample trees with different Hegyi’s competition indices(HCIs),soil moisture,and meteorological conditions in a pure plantation of Larix gmelinii var.principis-rupprechtii during the 2021 growing season(May to September).A multifactorial model of sap flow was developed and possible errors in the stand scale sap flow estimates associated with sample sizes were determined using model-based predictions of sap flow.Temporal variations are controlled by vapour pressure deficit(VPD),solar radiation(R),and soil moisture,and these relationships can be described by polynomial or saturated exponential functions.Spatial(individual)differences were influenced by the HCI,as shown by the decaying power function.A simple SF_(d)model at the individual tree level was developed to describe the synergistic influences of VPD,R,soil moisture,and HCI.The coefficient of variations(CV)of the sap flow estimates gradually stabilized when the sample size was>10;at least six sample trees were needed if the CV was within 10%.This study improves understanding of the mechanisms of spatiotemporal variations in sap flow at the individual tree level and provides a new methodology for determining the optimal sample size for sap flow measurements.展开更多
Sample size determination typically relies on a power analysis based on a frequentist conditional approach. This latter can be seen as a particular case of the two-priors approach, which allows to build four distinct ...Sample size determination typically relies on a power analysis based on a frequentist conditional approach. This latter can be seen as a particular case of the two-priors approach, which allows to build four distinct power functions to select the optimal sample size. We revise this approach when the focus is on testing a single binomial proportion. We consider exact methods and introduce a conservative criterion to account for the typical non-monotonic behavior of the power functions, when dealing with discrete data. The main purpose of this paper is to present a Shiny App providing a user-friendly, interactive tool to apply these criteria. The app also provides specific tools to elicit the analysis and the design prior distributions, which are the core of the two-priors approach.展开更多
Sample size can be a key design feature that not only affects the probability of a trial＇s success but also determines the duration and feasibility of a trial. If an investigational drug is expected to be effective a...Sample size can be a key design feature that not only affects the probability of a trial＇s success but also determines the duration and feasibility of a trial. If an investigational drug is expected to be effective and address unmet medical needs of an orphan disease, where the accrual period may require many years with a large sample size to detect a minimal clinically relevant treatment effect, a minimum sample size may be set to maintain nominal power. In limited situations such as this, there may be a need for flexibility in the initial and final sample sizes; thus, it is useful to consider the utility of adaptive sample size designs that use sample size re-estimation or group sequential design. In this paper, we propose a new adaptive performance measure to consider the utility of an adaptive sample size design in a trial simulation. Considering that previously proposed sample size re-estimation methods do not take into account errors in estimation based on interim results, we propose Bayesian sample size re-estimation criteria that take into account prior information on treatment effect, and then, we assess its operating characteristics in a simulation study. We also present a review example of sample size re-estimation mainly based on published paper and review report in Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency （PMDA）.展开更多
Knowledge on spatial distribution and sampling size optimization of soil copper （Cu） could lay solid foundations for environmetal quality survey of agricultural soils at county scale. In this investigation, cokrigin...Knowledge on spatial distribution and sampling size optimization of soil copper （Cu） could lay solid foundations for environmetal quality survey of agricultural soils at county scale. In this investigation, cokriging method was used to conduct the interpolation of Cu concentraiton in cropland soil in Shuangliu County, Sichuan Province, China. Based on the original 623 physicochmically measured soil samples, 560, 498, and 432 sub-samples were randomly selected as target variable and soil organic matter （SOM） of the whole original samples as auxiliary variable. Interpolation results using Cokriging under different sampling numbers were evaluated for their applicability in estimating the spatial distribution of soil Cu at county sacle. The results showed that the root mean square error （RMSE） produced by Cokriging decreased from 0.9 to 7.77%, correlation coefficient between the predicted values and the measured increased from 1.76 to 9.76% in comparison with the ordinary Kriging under the corresponding sample sizes. The prediction accuracy using Cokriging was still higher than original 623 data using ordinary Kriging even as sample size reduced 10%, and their interpolation maps were highly in agreement. Therefore, Cokriging was proven to be a more accurate and economic method which could provide more information and benefit for the studies on spatial distribution of soil pollutants at county scale.展开更多
The development of a core collection could enhance the utilization of germplasm collections in crop improvement programs and simplify their management. Selection of an appropriate sampling strategy is an important pre...The development of a core collection could enhance the utilization of germplasm collections in crop improvement programs and simplify their management. Selection of an appropriate sampling strategy is an important prerequisite to construct a core collection with appropriate size in order to adequately represent the genetic spectrum and maximally capture the genetic diversity in available crop collections. The present study was initiated to construct nested core collections to determine the appropriate sample size to represent the genetic diversity of rice landrace collection based on 15 quantitative traits and 34 qualitative traits of 2 262 rice accessions. The results showed that 50-225 nested core collections, whose sampling rate was 2.2%-9.9%, were sufficient to maintain the maximum genetic diversity of the initial collections. Of these, 150 accessions （6.6%） could capture the maximal genetic diversity of the initial collection. Three data types, i.e. qualitative traits （QT1）, quantitative traits （QT2） and integrated qualitative and quantitative traits （QTT）, were compared for their efficiency in constructing core collections based on the weighted pair-group average method combined with stepwise clustering and preferred sampling on adjusted Euclidean distances. Every combining scheme constructed eight rice core collections （225, 200, 175, 150, 125, 100, 75 and 50）. The results showed that the QTT data was the best in constructing a core collection as indicated by the genetic diversity of core collections. A core collection constructed only on the information of QT1 could not represent the initial collection effectively. QTT should be used together to construct a productive core collection.展开更多
In order to investigate the effect of sample size on the dynamic torsional behaviour of the 2A12 aluminium alloy. In this paper, torsional split Hopkinson bar tests are conducted on this alloy with different sample di...In order to investigate the effect of sample size on the dynamic torsional behaviour of the 2A12 aluminium alloy. In this paper, torsional split Hopkinson bar tests are conducted on this alloy with different sample dimensions. It is found that with the decreasing gauge length and thickness, the tested yield strength increases. However, the sample innerlouter diameter has little effect on the dynamic torsional behaviour. Based on the finite element method, the stress states in the alloy with different sample sizes are analysed. Due to the effect of stress concentration zone （SCZ）, the shorter sample has a higher yield stress. Furthermore, the stress distributes more uniformly in the thinner sample, which leads to the higher tested yield stress. According to the experimental and simulation analysis, some suggestions on choosing the sample size are given as well.展开更多
Reliability assessment of the braking system in a high?speed train under small sample size and zero?failure data is veryimportant for safe operation. Traditional reliability assessment methods are only performed well ...Reliability assessment of the braking system in a high?speed train under small sample size and zero?failure data is veryimportant for safe operation. Traditional reliability assessment methods are only performed well under conditions of large sample size and complete failure data,which lead to large deviation under conditions of small sample size and zero?failure data. To improve this problem,a new Bayesian method is proposed. Based on the characteristics of the solenoid valve in the braking system of a high?speed train,the modified Weibull distribution is selected to describe the failure rate over the entire lifetime. Based on the assumption of a binomial distribution for the failure probability at censored time,a concave method is employed to obtain the relationships between accumulation failure prob?abilities. A numerical simulation is performed to compare the results of the proposed method with those obtained from maximum likelihood estimation,and to illustrate that the proposed Bayesian model exhibits a better accuracy for the expectation value when the sample size is less than 12. Finally,the robustness of the model is demonstrated by obtaining the reliability indicators for a numerical case involving the solenoid valve of the braking system,which shows that the change in the reliability and failure rate among the di erent hyperparameters is small. The method is provided to avoid misleading of subjective information and improve accuracy of reliability assessment under condi?tions of small sample size and zero?failure data.展开更多
This paper investigates the tolerable sample size needed for Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Estimator to be used when there is presence of Multicollinearity among the exogenous variables of a linear regression model. A r...This paper investigates the tolerable sample size needed for Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Estimator to be used when there is presence of Multicollinearity among the exogenous variables of a linear regression model. A regression model with constant term (β0) and two independent variables (with β1 and β2 as their respective regression coefficients) that exhibit multicollinearity was considered. A Monte Carlo study of 1000 trials was conducted at eight levels of multicollinearity (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.7, 0.75, 0.8, 0.9 and 0.99) and sample sizes (10, 20, 40, 80, 100, 150, 250 and 500). At each specification, the true regression coefficients were set at unity while 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 were taken as the hypothesized value. The power value rate was obtained at every multicollinearity level for the aforementioned sample sizes. Therefore, whether the hypothesized values highly depart from the true values or not once the multicollinearity level is very high (i.e. 0.99), the sample size needed to work with in order to have an error free estimation or the inference result must be greater than five hundred.展开更多
In the October 2014 publication of JAMA,Dr.Hinman and colleagues published the study＂Acupuncture for Chronic Knee Pain：A Randomized Clinical Trial,＂in which the authors concluded that＂in patients older than50 year...In the October 2014 publication of JAMA,Dr.Hinman and colleagues published the study＂Acupuncture for Chronic Knee Pain：A Randomized Clinical Trial,＂in which the authors concluded that＂in patients older than50 years with moderate or severe chronic knee pain,neither laser nor needle acupuncture conferred benefi t over sham for pain or function.Our fi ndings do not support acupuncture[1]展开更多
This study used Ecopath model of the Jiaozhou Bay as an example to evaluate the effect of stomach sample size of three fish species on the projection of this model. The derived ecosystem indices were classified into t...This study used Ecopath model of the Jiaozhou Bay as an example to evaluate the effect of stomach sample size of three fish species on the projection of this model. The derived ecosystem indices were classified into three categories:(1) direct indices, like the trophic level of species, influenced by stomach sample size directly;(2)indirect indices, like ecology efficiency(EE) of invertebrates, influenced by the multiple prey-predator relationships;and(3) systemic indices, like total system throughout(TST), describing the status of the whole ecosystem. The influences of different stomach sample sizes on these indices were evaluated. The results suggest that systemic indices of the ecosystem model were robust to stomach sample sizes, whereas specific indices related to species were indicated to be with low accuracy and precision when stomach samples were insufficient.The indices became more uncertain when the stomach sample sizes varied for more species. This study enhances the understanding of how the quality of diet composition data influences ecosystem modeling outputs. The results can also guide the design of stomach content analysis for developing ecosystem models.展开更多
Objective To develop methods for determining a suitable sample size for bioequivalence assessment of generic topical ophthalmic drugs using crossover design with serial sampling schemes.Methods The power functions of ...Objective To develop methods for determining a suitable sample size for bioequivalence assessment of generic topical ophthalmic drugs using crossover design with serial sampling schemes.Methods The power functions of the Fieller-type confidence interval and the asymptotic confidence interval in crossover designs with serial-sampling data are here derived.Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the derived power functions.Results Simulation studies show that two power functions can provide precise power estimates when normality assumptions are satisfied and yield conservative estimates of power in cases when data are log-normally distributed.The intra-correlation showed a positive correlation with the power of the bioequivalence test.When the expected ratio of the AUCs was less than or equal to 1, the power of the Fieller-type confidence interval was larger than the asymptotic confidence interval.If the expected ratio of the AUCs was larger than 1, the asymptotic confidence interval had greater power.Sample size can be calculated through numerical iteration with the derived power functions.Conclusion The Fieller-type power function and the asymptotic power function can be used to determine sample sizes of crossover trials for bioequivalence assessment of topical ophthalmic drugs.展开更多
The precise and accurate knowledge of genetic parameters is a prerequisite for making efficient selection strategies in breeding programs.A number of estimators of heritability about important economic traits in many ...The precise and accurate knowledge of genetic parameters is a prerequisite for making efficient selection strategies in breeding programs.A number of estimators of heritability about important economic traits in many marine mollusks are available in the literature,however very few research have evaluated about the accuracy of genetic parameters estimated with different family structures.Thus,in the present study,the effect of parent sample size for estimating the precision of genetic parameters of four growth traits in clam M.meretrix by factorial designs were analyzed through restricted maximum likelihood（REML） and Bayesian.The results showed that the average estimated heritabilities of growth traits obtained from REML were 0.23-0.32 for 9 and 16 full-sib families and 0.19-0.22 for 25 full-sib families.When using Bayesian inference,the average estimated heritabilities were0.11-0.12 for 9 and 16 full-sib families and 0.13-0.16 for 25 full-sib families.Compared with REML,Bayesian got lower heritabilities,but still remained at a medium level.When the number of parents increased from 6 to 10,the estimated heritabilities were more closed to 0.20 in REML and 0.12 in Bayesian inference.Genetic correlations among traits were positive and high and had no significant difference between different sizes of designs.The accuracies of estimated breeding values from the 9 and 16 families were less precise than those from 25 families.Our results provide a basic genetic evaluation for growth traits and should be useful for the design and operation of a practical selective breeding program in the clam M.meretrix.展开更多
After finishing 102 replicate constant amplitude crack initiation and growth tests on Ly12-CZ aluminum alloy plate, a statistical investigation of the fatigue crack initiation and growth process is conducted in this p...After finishing 102 replicate constant amplitude crack initiation and growth tests on Ly12-CZ aluminum alloy plate, a statistical investigation of the fatigue crack initiation and growth process is conducted in this paper. According to the post-mortem fractographic examination by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), some qualitative observations of the spacial correlation among fatigue striations are developed to reveal the statistical nature of material intrinsic inhomogeneity during the crack growth process. From the test data, an engineering division between crack initiation and growth is defined as the upper limit of small crack. The distributions of crack initiation life N-i, growth life N, and the statistical characteristics of crack growth rate da/dN are also investigated. It is hoped that the work will provide a solid test basis for the study of probabilistic fatigue, probabilistic fracture mechanics, fatigue reliability and its engineering applications.展开更多
Sample size is very important in statistical research because it is not too small or too large. Given significant level α, the sample size is calculated based on the z-value and pre-defined error. Such error is defin...Sample size is very important in statistical research because it is not too small or too large. Given significant level α, the sample size is calculated based on the z-value and pre-defined error. Such error is defined based on the previous experiment or other study or it can be determined subjectively by specialist, which may cause incorrect estimation. Therefore, this research proposes an objective method to estimate the sample size without pre-defining the error. Given an available sample X = {X1, X2, ..., Xn}, the error is calculated via the iterative process in which sample X is re-sampled many times. Moreover, after the sample size is estimated completely, it can be used to collect a new sample in order to estimate new sample size and so on.展开更多
Sample size justification is a very crucial part in the design of clinical trials. In this paper, the authors derive a new formula to calculate the sample size for a binary outcome given one of the three popular indic...Sample size justification is a very crucial part in the design of clinical trials. In this paper, the authors derive a new formula to calculate the sample size for a binary outcome given one of the three popular indices of risk difference.The sample size based on the absolute difference is the fundamental one, which can be easily used to derive sample size given the risk ratio or OR.展开更多
Binary logistic regression models are commonly used to assess the association between outcomes and covariates. Many covariates are inherently continuous, and have a variety of distributions, including those that are h...Binary logistic regression models are commonly used to assess the association between outcomes and covariates. Many covariates are inherently continuous, and have a variety of distributions, including those that are heavily skewed to the left or right. Existing theoretical formulas, criteria, and simulation programs cannot accurately estimate the sample size and power of non-standard distributions. Therefore, we have developed a simulation program that uses Monte Carlo methods to estimate the exact power of a binary logistic regression model. This power calculation can be used for distributions of any shape and covariates of any type (continuous, ordinal, and nominal), and can account for nonlinear relationships between covariates and outcomes. For illustrative purposes, this simulation program is applied to real data obtained from a study on the influence of smoking on 90-day outcomes after acute atherothrombotic stroke. Our program is applicable to all effect sizes and makes it possible to apply various statistical methods, logistic regression and related simulations such as Bayesian inference with some modifications.展开更多
A novel statistical approach to evaluate the manufacturing quality of press coated tablets in terms of the centering of their core is presented. We also provide a formula to determine the necessary sample size. This a...A novel statistical approach to evaluate the manufacturing quality of press coated tablets in terms of the centering of their core is presented. We also provide a formula to determine the necessary sample size. This approach is applied to real data.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81273184)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant for Young Scientists (81302512)
文摘Sample size re-estimation is essential in oncology studies. However, the use of blinded sample size reassessment for survival data has been rarely reported. Based on the density function of the exponential distribution, an expectation-maximization（EM） algorithm of the hazard ratio was derived, and several simulation studies were used to verify its applications. The method had obvious variation in the hazard ratio estimates and overestimation for the relatively small hazard ratios. Our studies showed that the stability of the EM estimation results directly correlated with the sample size, the convergence of the EM algorithm was impacted by the initial values, and a balanced design produced the best estimates. No reliable blinded sample size re-estimation inference can be made in our studies, but the results provide useful information to steer the practitioners in this field from repeating the same endeavor.
基金supported by the Innovation Driven Development Foundation of Guangxi(No.AD22080035)the Open Project Funding of the Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Ecosystem and Bioresource,Ministry of Natural Resources(No.2023-QN04)+1 种基金the Guangdong Provincial Ordinary University Youth Innovative Talent Project in 2024(No.2024KQNCX134)the Guangdong Provincial Special Fund Project for Talent Development Strategy in 2024(No.2024R3005).
文摘The investigation of whether sediment samples contain representative grain size distribution information is important for the accurate extraction of sediment characteristics and conduct of related sedimentary record studies.This study comparatively analyzed the numerical and qualitative differences and the degree of correlation of 36 sets of the characteristic parameters of surface sediment parallel sample grain size distribution from three sampling profiles at Jinsha Bay Beach in Zhanjiang,western Guangdong.At each sampling point,five parallel subsamples were established at intervals of 0,10,20,50,and 100 cm along the coastline.The research findings indicate the following:1)relatively large differences in the mean values of the different parallel samples(0.19–0.34Φ),with smaller differences observed in other characteristic grain sizes(D_(10),D_(50),and D_(90));2)small differences in characteristic values among various parallel sample grain size parameters,with at least 33%of the combinations of qualitative results showing inconsistency;3)50%of the regression equations between the skewness of different parallel samples displaying no significant correlation;4)relative deviations of−47.91%to 27.63%and−49.20%to 2.08%existing between the particle size parameters of a single sample and parallel samples(with the average obtained)at intervals of 10 and 50 cm,respectively.As such,small spatial differences,even within 100 cm,can considerably affect grain size parameters.Given the uncertain reasons underlying the representativeness of the samples,which may only cover the area immediately surrounding the sampling station,researchers are advised to design parallel sample collection strategies based on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the parameters of interest during sediment sample collection.This study provides a typical case of the comparative analysis of parallel sample grain size parameters,with a focus on small spatial beach sediment,which contributes to the enhanced understanding of the accuracy and reliability of sediment sample collection strategies and extraction of grain size information.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61973033)Preliminary Research of Equipment(Grant No.9090102010305)for funding the experiments。
文摘The longitudinal dispersion of the projectile in shooting tests of two-dimensional trajectory corrections fused with fixed canards is extremely large that it sometimes exceeds the correction ability of the correction fuse actuator.The impact point easily deviates from the target,and thus the correction result cannot be readily evaluated.However,the cost of shooting tests is considerably high to conduct many tests for data collection.To address this issue,this study proposes an aiming method for shooting tests based on small sample size.The proposed method uses the Bootstrap method to expand the test data;repeatedly iterates and corrects the position of the simulated theoretical impact points through an improved compatibility test method;and dynamically adjusts the weight of the prior distribution of simulation results based on Kullback-Leibler divergence,which to some extent avoids the real data being"submerged"by the simulation data and achieves the fusion Bayesian estimation of the dispersion center.The experimental results show that when the simulation accuracy is sufficiently high,the proposed method yields a smaller mean-square deviation in estimating the dispersion center and higher shooting accuracy than those of the three comparison methods,which is more conducive to reflecting the effect of the control algorithm and facilitating test personnel to iterate their proposed structures and algorithms.;in addition,this study provides a knowledge base for further comprehensive studies in the future.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds of the Chinese Academy of Forestry(CAFYBB2020QB004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971038,32171559,U20A2085,and U21A2005).
文摘The sap flow method is widely used to estimate forest transpiration.However,at the individual tree level it has spatiotemporal variations due to the impacts of environmental conditions and spatial relationships among trees.Therefore,an in-depth understanding of the coupling effects of these factors is important for designing sap flow measurement methods and performing accurate assessments of stand scale transpiration.This study is based on observations of sap flux density(SF_(d))of nine sample trees with different Hegyi’s competition indices(HCIs),soil moisture,and meteorological conditions in a pure plantation of Larix gmelinii var.principis-rupprechtii during the 2021 growing season(May to September).A multifactorial model of sap flow was developed and possible errors in the stand scale sap flow estimates associated with sample sizes were determined using model-based predictions of sap flow.Temporal variations are controlled by vapour pressure deficit(VPD),solar radiation(R),and soil moisture,and these relationships can be described by polynomial or saturated exponential functions.Spatial(individual)differences were influenced by the HCI,as shown by the decaying power function.A simple SF_(d)model at the individual tree level was developed to describe the synergistic influences of VPD,R,soil moisture,and HCI.The coefficient of variations(CV)of the sap flow estimates gradually stabilized when the sample size was>10;at least six sample trees were needed if the CV was within 10%.This study improves understanding of the mechanisms of spatiotemporal variations in sap flow at the individual tree level and provides a new methodology for determining the optimal sample size for sap flow measurements.
文摘Sample size determination typically relies on a power analysis based on a frequentist conditional approach. This latter can be seen as a particular case of the two-priors approach, which allows to build four distinct power functions to select the optimal sample size. We revise this approach when the focus is on testing a single binomial proportion. We consider exact methods and introduce a conservative criterion to account for the typical non-monotonic behavior of the power functions, when dealing with discrete data. The main purpose of this paper is to present a Shiny App providing a user-friendly, interactive tool to apply these criteria. The app also provides specific tools to elicit the analysis and the design prior distributions, which are the core of the two-priors approach.
文摘Sample size can be a key design feature that not only affects the probability of a trial＇s success but also determines the duration and feasibility of a trial. If an investigational drug is expected to be effective and address unmet medical needs of an orphan disease, where the accrual period may require many years with a large sample size to detect a minimal clinically relevant treatment effect, a minimum sample size may be set to maintain nominal power. In limited situations such as this, there may be a need for flexibility in the initial and final sample sizes; thus, it is useful to consider the utility of adaptive sample size designs that use sample size re-estimation or group sequential design. In this paper, we propose a new adaptive performance measure to consider the utility of an adaptive sample size design in a trial simulation. Considering that previously proposed sample size re-estimation methods do not take into account errors in estimation based on interim results, we propose Bayesian sample size re-estimation criteria that take into account prior information on treatment effect, and then, we assess its operating characteristics in a simulation study. We also present a review example of sample size re-estimation mainly based on published paper and review report in Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency （PMDA）.
基金supported by the Youth Foundation from Sichuan Education Bureau (2006B009)Key Project from Sichuan Education Bureau (2006A008)Sichuan Youth Science & Technology Foundation,China (06ZQ026-020)
文摘Knowledge on spatial distribution and sampling size optimization of soil copper （Cu） could lay solid foundations for environmetal quality survey of agricultural soils at county scale. In this investigation, cokriging method was used to conduct the interpolation of Cu concentraiton in cropland soil in Shuangliu County, Sichuan Province, China. Based on the original 623 physicochmically measured soil samples, 560, 498, and 432 sub-samples were randomly selected as target variable and soil organic matter （SOM） of the whole original samples as auxiliary variable. Interpolation results using Cokriging under different sampling numbers were evaluated for their applicability in estimating the spatial distribution of soil Cu at county sacle. The results showed that the root mean square error （RMSE） produced by Cokriging decreased from 0.9 to 7.77%, correlation coefficient between the predicted values and the measured increased from 1.76 to 9.76% in comparison with the ordinary Kriging under the corresponding sample sizes. The prediction accuracy using Cokriging was still higher than original 623 data using ordinary Kriging even as sample size reduced 10%, and their interpolation maps were highly in agreement. Therefore, Cokriging was proven to be a more accurate and economic method which could provide more information and benefit for the studies on spatial distribution of soil pollutants at county scale.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 30700494)the Principal Fund of South China Agricultural University, China (Grant No. 2003K053)
文摘The development of a core collection could enhance the utilization of germplasm collections in crop improvement programs and simplify their management. Selection of an appropriate sampling strategy is an important prerequisite to construct a core collection with appropriate size in order to adequately represent the genetic spectrum and maximally capture the genetic diversity in available crop collections. The present study was initiated to construct nested core collections to determine the appropriate sample size to represent the genetic diversity of rice landrace collection based on 15 quantitative traits and 34 qualitative traits of 2 262 rice accessions. The results showed that 50-225 nested core collections, whose sampling rate was 2.2%-9.9%, were sufficient to maintain the maximum genetic diversity of the initial collections. Of these, 150 accessions （6.6%） could capture the maximal genetic diversity of the initial collection. Three data types, i.e. qualitative traits （QT1）, quantitative traits （QT2） and integrated qualitative and quantitative traits （QTT）, were compared for their efficiency in constructing core collections based on the weighted pair-group average method combined with stepwise clustering and preferred sampling on adjusted Euclidean distances. Every combining scheme constructed eight rice core collections （225, 200, 175, 150, 125, 100, 75 and 50）. The results showed that the QTT data was the best in constructing a core collection as indicated by the genetic diversity of core collections. A core collection constructed only on the information of QT1 could not represent the initial collection effectively. QTT should be used together to construct a productive core collection.
基金Financial support is from the NSFC(Grant Nos.11602257,11472257,11272300,11572299)funded by the key subject"Computational Solid Mechanics"of the China Academy of Engineering Physics
文摘In order to investigate the effect of sample size on the dynamic torsional behaviour of the 2A12 aluminium alloy. In this paper, torsional split Hopkinson bar tests are conducted on this alloy with different sample dimensions. It is found that with the decreasing gauge length and thickness, the tested yield strength increases. However, the sample innerlouter diameter has little effect on the dynamic torsional behaviour. Based on the finite element method, the stress states in the alloy with different sample sizes are analysed. Due to the effect of stress concentration zone （SCZ）, the shorter sample has a higher yield stress. Furthermore, the stress distributes more uniformly in the thinner sample, which leads to the higher tested yield stress. According to the experimental and simulation analysis, some suggestions on choosing the sample size are given as well.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51175028)Great Scholars Training Project(Grant No.CIT&TCD20150312)Beijing Recognized Talent Project(Grant No.2014018)
文摘Reliability assessment of the braking system in a high?speed train under small sample size and zero?failure data is veryimportant for safe operation. Traditional reliability assessment methods are only performed well under conditions of large sample size and complete failure data,which lead to large deviation under conditions of small sample size and zero?failure data. To improve this problem,a new Bayesian method is proposed. Based on the characteristics of the solenoid valve in the braking system of a high?speed train,the modified Weibull distribution is selected to describe the failure rate over the entire lifetime. Based on the assumption of a binomial distribution for the failure probability at censored time,a concave method is employed to obtain the relationships between accumulation failure prob?abilities. A numerical simulation is performed to compare the results of the proposed method with those obtained from maximum likelihood estimation,and to illustrate that the proposed Bayesian model exhibits a better accuracy for the expectation value when the sample size is less than 12. Finally,the robustness of the model is demonstrated by obtaining the reliability indicators for a numerical case involving the solenoid valve of the braking system,which shows that the change in the reliability and failure rate among the di erent hyperparameters is small. The method is provided to avoid misleading of subjective information and improve accuracy of reliability assessment under condi?tions of small sample size and zero?failure data.
文摘This paper investigates the tolerable sample size needed for Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Estimator to be used when there is presence of Multicollinearity among the exogenous variables of a linear regression model. A regression model with constant term (β0) and two independent variables (with β1 and β2 as their respective regression coefficients) that exhibit multicollinearity was considered. A Monte Carlo study of 1000 trials was conducted at eight levels of multicollinearity (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.7, 0.75, 0.8, 0.9 and 0.99) and sample sizes (10, 20, 40, 80, 100, 150, 250 and 500). At each specification, the true regression coefficients were set at unity while 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 were taken as the hypothesized value. The power value rate was obtained at every multicollinearity level for the aforementioned sample sizes. Therefore, whether the hypothesized values highly depart from the true values or not once the multicollinearity level is very high (i.e. 0.99), the sample size needed to work with in order to have an error free estimation or the inference result must be greater than five hundred.
文摘In the October 2014 publication of JAMA,Dr.Hinman and colleagues published the study＂Acupuncture for Chronic Knee Pain：A Randomized Clinical Trial,＂in which the authors concluded that＂in patients older than50 years with moderate or severe chronic knee pain,neither laser nor needle acupuncture conferred benefi t over sham for pain or function.Our fi ndings do not support acupuncture[1]
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.31772852the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No.201612004。
文摘This study used Ecopath model of the Jiaozhou Bay as an example to evaluate the effect of stomach sample size of three fish species on the projection of this model. The derived ecosystem indices were classified into three categories:(1) direct indices, like the trophic level of species, influenced by stomach sample size directly;(2)indirect indices, like ecology efficiency(EE) of invertebrates, influenced by the multiple prey-predator relationships;and(3) systemic indices, like total system throughout(TST), describing the status of the whole ecosystem. The influences of different stomach sample sizes on these indices were evaluated. The results suggest that systemic indices of the ecosystem model were robust to stomach sample sizes, whereas specific indices related to species were indicated to be with low accuracy and precision when stomach samples were insufficient.The indices became more uncertain when the stomach sample sizes varied for more species. This study enhances the understanding of how the quality of diet composition data influences ecosystem modeling outputs. The results can also guide the design of stomach content analysis for developing ecosystem models.
基金supported by sub-project of National Major Scientific and Technological Special Project of China for ‘Significant New Drugs Development’[2015ZX09501008-004]
文摘Objective To develop methods for determining a suitable sample size for bioequivalence assessment of generic topical ophthalmic drugs using crossover design with serial sampling schemes.Methods The power functions of the Fieller-type confidence interval and the asymptotic confidence interval in crossover designs with serial-sampling data are here derived.Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the derived power functions.Results Simulation studies show that two power functions can provide precise power estimates when normality assumptions are satisfied and yield conservative estimates of power in cases when data are log-normally distributed.The intra-correlation showed a positive correlation with the power of the bioequivalence test.When the expected ratio of the AUCs was less than or equal to 1, the power of the Fieller-type confidence interval was larger than the asymptotic confidence interval.If the expected ratio of the AUCs was larger than 1, the asymptotic confidence interval had greater power.Sample size can be calculated through numerical iteration with the derived power functions.Conclusion The Fieller-type power function and the asymptotic power function can be used to determine sample sizes of crossover trials for bioequivalence assessment of topical ophthalmic drugs.
基金The National High Technology Research and Development Program(863 program)of China under contract No.2012AA10A410the Zhejiang Science and Technology Project of Agricultural Breeding under contract No.2012C12907-4the Scientific and Technological Innovation Project financially supported by Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology under contract No.2015ASKJ02
文摘The precise and accurate knowledge of genetic parameters is a prerequisite for making efficient selection strategies in breeding programs.A number of estimators of heritability about important economic traits in many marine mollusks are available in the literature,however very few research have evaluated about the accuracy of genetic parameters estimated with different family structures.Thus,in the present study,the effect of parent sample size for estimating the precision of genetic parameters of four growth traits in clam M.meretrix by factorial designs were analyzed through restricted maximum likelihood（REML） and Bayesian.The results showed that the average estimated heritabilities of growth traits obtained from REML were 0.23-0.32 for 9 and 16 full-sib families and 0.19-0.22 for 25 full-sib families.When using Bayesian inference,the average estimated heritabilities were0.11-0.12 for 9 and 16 full-sib families and 0.13-0.16 for 25 full-sib families.Compared with REML,Bayesian got lower heritabilities,but still remained at a medium level.When the number of parents increased from 6 to 10,the estimated heritabilities were more closed to 0.20 in REML and 0.12 in Bayesian inference.Genetic correlations among traits were positive and high and had no significant difference between different sizes of designs.The accuracies of estimated breeding values from the 9 and 16 families were less precise than those from 25 families.Our results provide a basic genetic evaluation for growth traits and should be useful for the design and operation of a practical selective breeding program in the clam M.meretrix.
基金The project is supported by the Aeronautic Science Foundation,China
文摘After finishing 102 replicate constant amplitude crack initiation and growth tests on Ly12-CZ aluminum alloy plate, a statistical investigation of the fatigue crack initiation and growth process is conducted in this paper. According to the post-mortem fractographic examination by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), some qualitative observations of the spacial correlation among fatigue striations are developed to reveal the statistical nature of material intrinsic inhomogeneity during the crack growth process. From the test data, an engineering division between crack initiation and growth is defined as the upper limit of small crack. The distributions of crack initiation life N-i, growth life N, and the statistical characteristics of crack growth rate da/dN are also investigated. It is hoped that the work will provide a solid test basis for the study of probabilistic fatigue, probabilistic fracture mechanics, fatigue reliability and its engineering applications.
文摘Sample size is very important in statistical research because it is not too small or too large. Given significant level α, the sample size is calculated based on the z-value and pre-defined error. Such error is defined based on the previous experiment or other study or it can be determined subjectively by specialist, which may cause incorrect estimation. Therefore, this research proposes an objective method to estimate the sample size without pre-defining the error. Given an available sample X = {X1, X2, ..., Xn}, the error is calculated via the iterative process in which sample X is re-sampled many times. Moreover, after the sample size is estimated completely, it can be used to collect a new sample in order to estimate new sample size and so on.
文摘Sample size justification is a very crucial part in the design of clinical trials. In this paper, the authors derive a new formula to calculate the sample size for a binary outcome given one of the three popular indices of risk difference.The sample size based on the absolute difference is the fundamental one, which can be easily used to derive sample size given the risk ratio or OR.
文摘Binary logistic regression models are commonly used to assess the association between outcomes and covariates. Many covariates are inherently continuous, and have a variety of distributions, including those that are heavily skewed to the left or right. Existing theoretical formulas, criteria, and simulation programs cannot accurately estimate the sample size and power of non-standard distributions. Therefore, we have developed a simulation program that uses Monte Carlo methods to estimate the exact power of a binary logistic regression model. This power calculation can be used for distributions of any shape and covariates of any type (continuous, ordinal, and nominal), and can account for nonlinear relationships between covariates and outcomes. For illustrative purposes, this simulation program is applied to real data obtained from a study on the influence of smoking on 90-day outcomes after acute atherothrombotic stroke. Our program is applicable to all effect sizes and makes it possible to apply various statistical methods, logistic regression and related simulations such as Bayesian inference with some modifications.
文摘A novel statistical approach to evaluate the manufacturing quality of press coated tablets in terms of the centering of their core is presented. We also provide a formula to determine the necessary sample size. This approach is applied to real data.
