BACKGROUND Rebleeding after recovery from esophagogastric variceal bleeding(EGVB)is a severe complication that is associated with high rates of both incidence and mortality.Despite its clinical importance,recognized p...BACKGROUND Rebleeding after recovery from esophagogastric variceal bleeding(EGVB)is a severe complication that is associated with high rates of both incidence and mortality.Despite its clinical importance,recognized prognostic models that can effectively predict esophagogastric variceal rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis are lacking.AIM To construct and externally validate a reliable prognostic model for predicting the occurrence of esophagogastric variceal rebleeding.METHODS This study included 477 EGVB patients across 2 cohorts:The derivation cohort(n=322)and the validation cohort(n=155).The primary outcome was rebleeding events within 1 year.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was applied for predictor selection,and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to construct the prognostic model.Internal validation was performed with bootstrap resampling.We assessed the discrimination,calibration and accuracy of the model,and performed patient risk stratification.RESULTS Six predictors,including albumin and aspartate aminotransferase concentrations,white blood cell count,and the presence of ascites,portal vein thrombosis,and bleeding signs,were selected for the rebleeding event prediction following endoscopic treatment(REPET)model.In predicting rebleeding within 1 year,the REPET model ex-hibited a concordance index of 0.775 and a Brier score of 0.143 in the derivation cohort,alongside 0.862 and 0.127 in the validation cohort.Furthermore,the REPET model revealed a significant difference in rebleeding rates(P<0.01)between low-risk patients and intermediate-to high-risk patients in both cohorts.CONCLUSION We constructed and validated a new prognostic model for variceal rebleeding with excellent predictive per-formance,which will improve the clinical management of rebleeding in EGVB patients.展开更多
This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble lear...This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble learning techniques:DAGGING(DG),MULTIBOOST(MB),and ADABOOST(AB).This combination resulted in three distinct ensemble models:DG-RBFN,MB-RBFN,and AB-RBFN.Additionally,a traditional weighted method,Information Value(IV),and a benchmark machine learning(ML)model,Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network(MLP),were employed for comparison and validation.The models were developed using ten landslide conditioning factors,which included slope,aspect,elevation,curvature,land cover,geomorphology,overburden depth,lithology,distance to rivers and distance to roads.These factors were instrumental in predicting the output variable,which was the probability of landslide occurrence.Statistical analysis of the models’performance indicated that the DG-RBFN model,with an Area Under ROC Curve(AUC)of 0.931,outperformed the other models.The AB-RBFN model achieved an AUC of 0.929,the MB-RBFN model had an AUC of 0.913,and the MLP model recorded an AUC of 0.926.These results suggest that the advanced ensemble ML model DG-RBFN was more accurate than traditional statistical model,single MLP model,and other ensemble models in preparing trustworthy landslide susceptibility maps,thereby enhancing land use planning and decision-making.展开更多
“双碳”背景下,动力电池回收产业已成为新能源汽车发展的重要环节。为深入了解中国动力电池回收产业现状并探索可持续发展对策,借助SWOT-PEST(strength-weakness-opportunity-threat and political-economic-social-technological,优...“双碳”背景下,动力电池回收产业已成为新能源汽车发展的重要环节。为深入了解中国动力电池回收产业现状并探索可持续发展对策,借助SWOT-PEST(strength-weakness-opportunity-threat and political-economic-social-technological,优势劣势机会风险和政治经济社会技术)模型,从政治、经济、社会和技术四个维度来分析产业发展的动力与制约条件,并基于产业的现状提出相应的对策。研究结果显示,在中国动力电池回收产业的政策体系在逐步完善,市场规模巨大,技术优势显著及产业增速迅猛,但仍面临政策执行区域差异,研发成本高昂,国际标准壁垒及资源对外依存等挑战;对此,建议构建政企社协同治理框架,以强化政策引导、深化跨境技术合作、创新商业模式及培育专业人才为抓手,推动产业可持续发展。本研究结果为完善中国动力电池回收体系建设提供了理论支撑与实践路径,为推动新能源汽车产业可持续发展指明了方向。展开更多
We propose an integrated method of data-driven and mechanism models for well logging formation evaluation,explicitly focusing on predicting reservoir parameters,such as porosity and water saturation.Accurately interpr...We propose an integrated method of data-driven and mechanism models for well logging formation evaluation,explicitly focusing on predicting reservoir parameters,such as porosity and water saturation.Accurately interpreting these parameters is crucial for effectively exploring and developing oil and gas.However,with the increasing complexity of geological conditions in this industry,there is a growing demand for improved accuracy in reservoir parameter prediction,leading to higher costs associated with manual interpretation.The conventional logging interpretation methods rely on empirical relationships between logging data and reservoir parameters,which suffer from low interpretation efficiency,intense subjectivity,and suitability for ideal conditions.The application of artificial intelligence in the interpretation of logging data provides a new solution to the problems existing in traditional methods.It is expected to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the interpretation.If large and high-quality datasets exist,data-driven models can reveal relationships of arbitrary complexity.Nevertheless,constructing sufficiently large logging datasets with reliable labels remains challenging,making it difficult to apply data-driven models effectively in logging data interpretation.Furthermore,data-driven models often act as“black boxes”without explaining their predictions or ensuring compliance with primary physical constraints.This paper proposes a machine learning method with strong physical constraints by integrating mechanism and data-driven models.Prior knowledge of logging data interpretation is embedded into machine learning regarding network structure,loss function,and optimization algorithm.We employ the Physically Informed Auto-Encoder(PIAE)to predict porosity and water saturation,which can be trained without labeled reservoir parameters using self-supervised learning techniques.This approach effectively achieves automated interpretation and facilitates generalization across diverse datasets.展开更多
Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather an...Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate phenomena.In the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant progress.Nowadays,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful pioneers.In this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization modules.To this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability studies.AI models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven way.Then,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific value.In addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model paradigm.Comprehensive predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.展开更多
Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper...Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper presents a data-driven approach to expansion estimation using electromechanical coupled models with machine learning.The proposed method integrates reduced-order impedance models with data-driven mechanical models,coupling the electrochemical and mechanical states through the state of charge(SOC)and mechanical pressure within a state estimation framework.The coupling relationship was established through experimental insights into pressure-related impedance parameters and the nonlinear mechanical behavior with SOC and pressure.The data-driven model was interpreted by introducing a novel swelling coefficient defined by component stiffnesses to capture the nonlinear mechanical behavior across various mechanical constraints.Sensitivity analysis of the impedance model shows that updating model parameters with pressure can reduce the mean absolute error of simulated voltage by 20 mV and SOC estimation error by 2%.The results demonstrate the model's estimation capabilities,achieving a root mean square error of less than 1 kPa when the maximum expansion force is from 30 kPa to 120 kPa,outperforming calibrated stiffness models and other machine learning techniques.The model's robustness and generalizability are further supported by its effective handling of SOC estimation and pressure measurement errors.This work highlights the importance of the proposed framework in enhancing state estimation and fault diagnosis for lithium-ion batteries.展开更多
As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods ge...As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods generally have problems such as insufficient 3D scene description capability and low dynamic update efficiency,which are difficult to meet the demand of real-time accurate management.For this reason,this paper proposes a vehicle twin modeling method for road tunnels.This approach starts from the actual management needs,and supports multi-level dynamic modeling from vehicle type,size to color by constructing a vehicle model library that can be flexibly invoked;at the same time,semantic constraint rules with geometric layout,behavioral attributes,and spatial relationships are designed to ensure that the virtual model matches with the real model with a high degree of similarity;ultimately,the prototype system is constructed and the case region is selected for the case study,and the dynamic vehicle status in the tunnel is realized by integrating real-time monitoring data with semantic constraints for precise virtual-real mapping.Finally,the prototype system is constructed and case experiments are conducted in selected case areas,which are combined with real-time monitoring data to realize dynamic updating and three-dimensional visualization of vehicle states in tunnels.The experiments show that the proposed method can run smoothly with an average rendering efficiency of 17.70 ms while guaranteeing the modeling accuracy(composite similarity of 0.867),which significantly improves the real-time and intuitive tunnel management.The research results provide reliable technical support for intelligent operation and emergency response of road tunnels,and offer new ideas for digital twin modeling of complex scenes.展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81874390 and No.81573948Shanghai Natural Science Foundation,No.21ZR1464100+1 种基金Science and Technology Innovation Action Plan of Shanghai Science and Technology Commission,No.22S11901700the Shanghai Key Specialty of Traditional Chinese Clinical Medicine,No.shslczdzk01201.
文摘BACKGROUND Rebleeding after recovery from esophagogastric variceal bleeding(EGVB)is a severe complication that is associated with high rates of both incidence and mortality.Despite its clinical importance,recognized prognostic models that can effectively predict esophagogastric variceal rebleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis are lacking.AIM To construct and externally validate a reliable prognostic model for predicting the occurrence of esophagogastric variceal rebleeding.METHODS This study included 477 EGVB patients across 2 cohorts:The derivation cohort(n=322)and the validation cohort(n=155).The primary outcome was rebleeding events within 1 year.The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was applied for predictor selection,and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to construct the prognostic model.Internal validation was performed with bootstrap resampling.We assessed the discrimination,calibration and accuracy of the model,and performed patient risk stratification.RESULTS Six predictors,including albumin and aspartate aminotransferase concentrations,white blood cell count,and the presence of ascites,portal vein thrombosis,and bleeding signs,were selected for the rebleeding event prediction following endoscopic treatment(REPET)model.In predicting rebleeding within 1 year,the REPET model ex-hibited a concordance index of 0.775 and a Brier score of 0.143 in the derivation cohort,alongside 0.862 and 0.127 in the validation cohort.Furthermore,the REPET model revealed a significant difference in rebleeding rates(P<0.01)between low-risk patients and intermediate-to high-risk patients in both cohorts.CONCLUSION We constructed and validated a new prognostic model for variceal rebleeding with excellent predictive per-formance,which will improve the clinical management of rebleeding in EGVB patients.
基金the University of Transport Technology under the project entitled“Application of Machine Learning Algorithms in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Mountainous Areas”with grant number DTTD2022-16.
文摘This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble learning techniques:DAGGING(DG),MULTIBOOST(MB),and ADABOOST(AB).This combination resulted in three distinct ensemble models:DG-RBFN,MB-RBFN,and AB-RBFN.Additionally,a traditional weighted method,Information Value(IV),and a benchmark machine learning(ML)model,Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network(MLP),were employed for comparison and validation.The models were developed using ten landslide conditioning factors,which included slope,aspect,elevation,curvature,land cover,geomorphology,overburden depth,lithology,distance to rivers and distance to roads.These factors were instrumental in predicting the output variable,which was the probability of landslide occurrence.Statistical analysis of the models’performance indicated that the DG-RBFN model,with an Area Under ROC Curve(AUC)of 0.931,outperformed the other models.The AB-RBFN model achieved an AUC of 0.929,the MB-RBFN model had an AUC of 0.913,and the MLP model recorded an AUC of 0.926.These results suggest that the advanced ensemble ML model DG-RBFN was more accurate than traditional statistical model,single MLP model,and other ensemble models in preparing trustworthy landslide susceptibility maps,thereby enhancing land use planning and decision-making.
文摘“双碳”背景下,动力电池回收产业已成为新能源汽车发展的重要环节。为深入了解中国动力电池回收产业现状并探索可持续发展对策,借助SWOT-PEST(strength-weakness-opportunity-threat and political-economic-social-technological,优势劣势机会风险和政治经济社会技术)模型,从政治、经济、社会和技术四个维度来分析产业发展的动力与制约条件,并基于产业的现状提出相应的对策。研究结果显示,在中国动力电池回收产业的政策体系在逐步完善,市场规模巨大,技术优势显著及产业增速迅猛,但仍面临政策执行区域差异,研发成本高昂,国际标准壁垒及资源对外依存等挑战;对此,建议构建政企社协同治理框架,以强化政策引导、深化跨境技术合作、创新商业模式及培育专业人才为抓手,推动产业可持续发展。本研究结果为完善中国动力电池回收体系建设提供了理论支撑与实践路径,为推动新能源汽车产业可持续发展指明了方向。
基金supported by National Key Research and Development Program (2019YFA0708301)National Natural Science Foundation of China (51974337)+2 种基金the Strategic Cooperation Projects of CNPC and CUPB (ZLZX2020-03)Science and Technology Innovation Fund of CNPC (2021DQ02-0403)Open Fund of Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute of CNPC (2022-KFKT-09)
文摘We propose an integrated method of data-driven and mechanism models for well logging formation evaluation,explicitly focusing on predicting reservoir parameters,such as porosity and water saturation.Accurately interpreting these parameters is crucial for effectively exploring and developing oil and gas.However,with the increasing complexity of geological conditions in this industry,there is a growing demand for improved accuracy in reservoir parameter prediction,leading to higher costs associated with manual interpretation.The conventional logging interpretation methods rely on empirical relationships between logging data and reservoir parameters,which suffer from low interpretation efficiency,intense subjectivity,and suitability for ideal conditions.The application of artificial intelligence in the interpretation of logging data provides a new solution to the problems existing in traditional methods.It is expected to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the interpretation.If large and high-quality datasets exist,data-driven models can reveal relationships of arbitrary complexity.Nevertheless,constructing sufficiently large logging datasets with reliable labels remains challenging,making it difficult to apply data-driven models effectively in logging data interpretation.Furthermore,data-driven models often act as“black boxes”without explaining their predictions or ensuring compliance with primary physical constraints.This paper proposes a machine learning method with strong physical constraints by integrating mechanism and data-driven models.Prior knowledge of logging data interpretation is embedded into machine learning regarding network structure,loss function,and optimization algorithm.We employ the Physically Informed Auto-Encoder(PIAE)to predict porosity and water saturation,which can be trained without labeled reservoir parameters using self-supervised learning techniques.This approach effectively achieves automated interpretation and facilitates generalization across diverse datasets.
基金in part supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42288101,42405147 and 42475054)in part by the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant No.BX20230071)。
文摘Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate phenomena.In the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant progress.Nowadays,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful pioneers.In this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization modules.To this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability studies.AI models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven way.Then,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific value.In addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model paradigm.Comprehensive predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.
基金Fund supported this work for Excellent Youth Scholars of China(Grant No.52222708)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51977007)+1 种基金Part of this work is supported by the research project“SPEED”(03XP0585)at RWTH Aachen Universityfunded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research(BMBF)。
文摘Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper presents a data-driven approach to expansion estimation using electromechanical coupled models with machine learning.The proposed method integrates reduced-order impedance models with data-driven mechanical models,coupling the electrochemical and mechanical states through the state of charge(SOC)and mechanical pressure within a state estimation framework.The coupling relationship was established through experimental insights into pressure-related impedance parameters and the nonlinear mechanical behavior with SOC and pressure.The data-driven model was interpreted by introducing a novel swelling coefficient defined by component stiffnesses to capture the nonlinear mechanical behavior across various mechanical constraints.Sensitivity analysis of the impedance model shows that updating model parameters with pressure can reduce the mean absolute error of simulated voltage by 20 mV and SOC estimation error by 2%.The results demonstrate the model's estimation capabilities,achieving a root mean square error of less than 1 kPa when the maximum expansion force is from 30 kPa to 120 kPa,outperforming calibrated stiffness models and other machine learning techniques.The model's robustness and generalizability are further supported by its effective handling of SOC estimation and pressure measurement errors.This work highlights the importance of the proposed framework in enhancing state estimation and fault diagnosis for lithium-ion batteries.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42301473,42271424,42171397)Chinese Postdoctoral Innovation Talents Support Program(No.BX20230299)+2 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M742884)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province(Nos.24NSFSC2264,2025ZNSFSC0322)Key Research and Development Project of Sichuan Province(No.24ZDYF0633).
文摘As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods generally have problems such as insufficient 3D scene description capability and low dynamic update efficiency,which are difficult to meet the demand of real-time accurate management.For this reason,this paper proposes a vehicle twin modeling method for road tunnels.This approach starts from the actual management needs,and supports multi-level dynamic modeling from vehicle type,size to color by constructing a vehicle model library that can be flexibly invoked;at the same time,semantic constraint rules with geometric layout,behavioral attributes,and spatial relationships are designed to ensure that the virtual model matches with the real model with a high degree of similarity;ultimately,the prototype system is constructed and the case region is selected for the case study,and the dynamic vehicle status in the tunnel is realized by integrating real-time monitoring data with semantic constraints for precise virtual-real mapping.Finally,the prototype system is constructed and case experiments are conducted in selected case areas,which are combined with real-time monitoring data to realize dynamic updating and three-dimensional visualization of vehicle states in tunnels.The experiments show that the proposed method can run smoothly with an average rendering efficiency of 17.70 ms while guaranteeing the modeling accuracy(composite similarity of 0.867),which significantly improves the real-time and intuitive tunnel management.The research results provide reliable technical support for intelligent operation and emergency response of road tunnels,and offer new ideas for digital twin modeling of complex scenes.
