In this paper, a periodic seasonal influenza SVEIRL model is constructed to explore the mechanismby which seasonal influenza factors exert social impacts. Through dynamic analysis of the model andverification via nume...In this paper, a periodic seasonal influenza SVEIRL model is constructed to explore the mechanismby which seasonal influenza factors exert social impacts. Through dynamic analysis of the model andverification via numerical simulations, it is revealed that seasonal factors exhibit a significant positivecorrelation with both the basic reproduction number and the final epidemic scale. Using surveillance data frominstitutions including the Chinese National Influenza Center and the Public Health Science, the model isapplied to simulate the trends of influenza epidemic in China. Under multi-dimensional scenarios that includedifferent years, provinces, influenza subtypes, and the proportion of influenza-like cases in northern andsouthern regions of China, approximate values of seasonal factors for each scenario are calculated usingmethods such as genetic algorithms and parameter fitting. The findings reaffirm that the intensity of seasonalfactors is positively correlated with the scale of influenza epidemics.展开更多
文摘In this paper, a periodic seasonal influenza SVEIRL model is constructed to explore the mechanismby which seasonal influenza factors exert social impacts. Through dynamic analysis of the model andverification via numerical simulations, it is revealed that seasonal factors exhibit a significant positivecorrelation with both the basic reproduction number and the final epidemic scale. Using surveillance data frominstitutions including the Chinese National Influenza Center and the Public Health Science, the model isapplied to simulate the trends of influenza epidemic in China. Under multi-dimensional scenarios that includedifferent years, provinces, influenza subtypes, and the proportion of influenza-like cases in northern andsouthern regions of China, approximate values of seasonal factors for each scenario are calculated usingmethods such as genetic algorithms and parameter fitting. The findings reaffirm that the intensity of seasonalfactors is positively correlated with the scale of influenza epidemics.
