In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to ap...In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to appear as bipolar magnetic couples. According to the results obtained, a possible explanation about the change of polarity in both solar hemispheres is given. Heuristic but logical arguments about the periodicity of the phenomenon of the observed magnetic polarity and the tendency of couples of Sunspots to appear solely in certain latitudes that can be called tropical regions of the Sun are presented. Finally, an indirect experimental test is proposed to show the possible process that produces the polarity of the Sunspots in a given cycle, as well as the invertion of that polarity in the next solar cycle.展开更多
Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core tempe...Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core temperature of the gas cloud rises to 10million K, the thermonuclear reaction of hydrogen fusion into helium is ignited, then the Sun become a star;once the hydrogen in thecore is exhausted, the life of the star will end. But the limited hydrogen element obviously cannot satisfy such a long-termthermonuclear reaction, in order to sustain long-term thermonuclear reactions, a steady stream of fuel must be obtained from space.So the existing hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System has serious defects. Thus the author has studied theformation of the Moon, the Earth and the Sun, and discovered the formation of the Sun and the real source of star energy. The authorcould also explain many solar activity phenomena such as sunspots, flares, prominences, etc.展开更多
Detecting naturally arising structures in data is central to knowledge extraction from data. In most applications, the main challenge is in the choice of the appropriate model for exploring the data features. The choi...Detecting naturally arising structures in data is central to knowledge extraction from data. In most applications, the main challenge is in the choice of the appropriate model for exploring the data features. The choice is generally poorly understood and any tentative choice may be too restrictive. Growing volumes of data, disparate data sources and modelling techniques entail the need for model optimization via adaptability rather than comparability. We propose a novel two-stage algorithm to modelling continuous data consisting of an unsupervised stage whereby the algorithm searches through the data for optimal parameter values and a supervised stage that adapts the parameters for predictive modelling. The method is implemented on the sunspots data with inherently Gaussian distributional properties and assumed bi-modality. Optimal values separating high from lows cycles are obtained via multiple simulations. Early patterns for each recorded cycle reveal that the first 3 years provide a sufficient basis for predicting the peak. Multiple Support Vector Machine runs using repeatedly improved data parameters show that the approach yields greater accuracy and reliability than conventional approaches and provides a good basis for model selection. Model reliability is established via multiple simulations of this type.展开更多
The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the...The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation.The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices（ESAI）elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past.In this study,ESAI＇s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear.It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function.In addition,the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses,providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models.Indeed,the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period,and it is located at higher latitudinal position,giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.展开更多
This paper analyses the relationship of forest fires and sunspots in Hcilongjiang Province in the past 40 ycars(1950-1989). The results indicated that each of the forest fire indexes such as forest Fire rate(y1), time...This paper analyses the relationship of forest fires and sunspots in Hcilongjiang Province in the past 40 ycars(1950-1989). The results indicated that each of the forest fire indexes such as forest Fire rate(y1), times of forest firc(Y2), average forest fire area for one time Y4 (equals the Y5 / Y2) and total forest fire arca(Y5) has a negative correlation with mean annual relative sunspots of the same year; total times of forest fire inside and outside of forest stands( Y3) has a positive correlation with sunspots. The 5 indexes stated above has a similar relation to last year's mean annual relative sunspots.展开更多
This study analyzes the evolution and dynamics of intensity oscillations in coronal sunspots and their surroundings using multi-wavelength image data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly(AIA)and Helioseismic and Magn...This study analyzes the evolution and dynamics of intensity oscillations in coronal sunspots and their surroundings using multi-wavelength image data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly(AIA)and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager(HMI)on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory(SDO).Intensity time series were extracted and analyzed from consecutive macropixels along thin coronal loop paths originating in a quiet sunspot.Fourier and wavelet analyses of corrected intensity time series reveal dominant 3 and 5 minute oscillations.Signals were filtered using the Fourier and inverse transforms to isolate narrow bands around the dominant oscillation periods.Diagrams and time-distance maps of intensity time series were plotted for Fourierfiltered AIA 131A,171A,193A,and 211Achannels,along with SDO/HMI magnetograms and dopplergrams at 6173A.The plots clearly show propagating oscillations with amplitude modulation(AM)across all macropixels along selected coronal paths in nearly all AIA and HMI channels.The phase speeds of the filtered oscillations,measured via slope calculations in time-distance maps,indicate that the intensity disturbances are slow magneto-acoustic waves.These results suggest that AM likely arises from the superposition of counterpropagating waves with slightly different frequencies(beta-like phenomena)due to Doppler shifts from background plasma flow along loop paths.Validating this hypothesis could establish AM's significance in solar coronal seismology for determining background plasma flow speed,the source of long-period oscillations,and coronal plasma heating mechanisms.展开更多
We examined the heliolatitude distribution and North-South(N-S)asymmetry of Ground Level Enhancement(GLE)event source locations from 1942 to 2024,finding distinct patterns between the periods 1942–1979 and1980–2024....We examined the heliolatitude distribution and North-South(N-S)asymmetry of Ground Level Enhancement(GLE)event source locations from 1942 to 2024,finding distinct patterns between the periods 1942–1979 and1980–2024.Between 1942 and 1979,33 GLE events were recorded:5 from the southern hemisphere within[S3,S11]and 28 from the northern hemisphere within[N7,N37].The southeast quadrant was devoid of any source locations for GLE events.45.4%of the source locations of the GLE events were within the latitudinal range of[S15,N15].The remaining source locations of the GLE events were distributed at latitudes above 15°in the northern hemisphere.Between 1980 and 2024,43 GLE events were recorded:25 from the southern hemisphere and 18 from the northern hemisphere,with all events above 30°latitude originating from the northern hemisphere.Approximately 44.2%of the source locations of the GLE events were distributed within the latitudinal band[S15,N15].Over the period from 1942 to 2024,44.7%within[S15,N15],63.2%within[S20,N20],80.3%within[S25,N25],88.2%within[S30,N30],and 11.8%at latitudes above 30°.N-S asymmetry was significant at latitudes above 0°,5°,10°,15°,20°and 30°,with northern hemisphere dominance.Moreover,a strong inverse correlation exists between the number of GLE events from the northern and southern hemispheres at latitudes above 0°,5°,10°,15°,20°,25°and 30°.展开更多
With the advancement of astronomical observation technology,people have a deeper understanding of the formation and evolution of galaxies,but many details of our own Milky Way and other external galaxies are still unk...With the advancement of astronomical observation technology,people have a deeper understanding of the formation and evolution of galaxies,but many details of our own Milky Way and other external galaxies are still unknown.Therefore,by studying the formation and orbital transformation mechanism of satellites,planets and stars,the author puts forward a new theory on the formation and evolution of stars and galaxies,thus revealing the hierarchical structure of galaxies and the formation and evolution laws of main sequence stars,red giants,white dwarfs,black dwarfs,supernovae,neutron stars,black holes and quasars.Some special phenomena in the course of star formation and evolution,such as sunspots,flares,fast radio bursts and gamma-ray bursts,have also been revealed.展开更多
The automatic detection and analysis of sunspots play a crucial role in understanding solar dynamics and predicting space weather events.This paper proposes a novel method for sunspot group detection and classificatio...The automatic detection and analysis of sunspots play a crucial role in understanding solar dynamics and predicting space weather events.This paper proposes a novel method for sunspot group detection and classification called the dual stream Convolutional Neural Network with Attention Mechanism(DSCNN-AM).The network consists of two parallel streams each processing different input data allowing for joint processing of spatial and temporal information while classifying sunspots.It takes in the white light images as well as the corresponding magnetic images that reveal both the optical and magnetic features of sunspots.The extracted features are then fused and processed by fully connected layers to perform detection and classification.The attention mechanism is further integrated to address the“edge dimming”problem which improves the model’s ability to handle sunspots near the edge of the solar disk.The network is trained and tested on the SOLAR-STORM1 data set.The results demonstrate that the DSCNN-AM achieves superior performance compared to existing methods,with a total accuracy exceeding 90%.展开更多
The time series of daily data on solar activity proxies, namely the sunspot number(SSN), sunspot area(SSA), solar radio flux(F10.7), modified coronal index(MCI), solar flare index(FI), and cosmic ray intensity(CRI), w...The time series of daily data on solar activity proxies, namely the sunspot number(SSN), sunspot area(SSA), solar radio flux(F10.7), modified coronal index(MCI), solar flare index(FI), and cosmic ray intensity(CRI), were analyzed to understand the solar activity modulations and short-term periodicities therein. Rieger-type and other short-term periods include the solar rotational period that covers the maximum activity phase period(maximum phase of solar cycle 24). The wavelet power spectra and Periodogram of SSN, SSA, F10.7, MCI, FI, and CRI exhibited a significant short-term period. The heliospheric effects exist for a particular period(~27 days) and they are related to the solar activity phenomena. The cross-correlation coefficients and time lags between the CRI and solar activity parameters were estimated to be ~200, 46, 281, 39, and 47 days for SSN, SSA, F10.7, MCI, and FI respectively during the time series 2012–2015(maximum phase of solar cycle 24).展开更多
1) The observation by Allais of the precession of pendulums from 1954 to 1960 highlighted regularities of astral origin an in-depth analysis of which showed that, apparently, no classical phenomenon can explain them. ...1) The observation by Allais of the precession of pendulums from 1954 to 1960 highlighted regularities of astral origin an in-depth analysis of which showed that, apparently, no classical phenomenon can explain them. These regularities were diurnal waves whose periods are characteristic of astral influence (the main ones being 24 h and 24 h 50 min), annual and semi-annual components, and a multi-annual component of approximately 6 years, an influence of Jupiter being a very good candidate to explain it. 2) Allais had experimentally established that all these astral influences were expressed globally on the pendulum by an action tending to call back its plane of oscillation towards a direction variable in time, and which ovalized its trajectory. In 2019 the observation of 2 pendulums in Horodnic (Romania), thanks to the use of an automatic alidade, made it possible to identify the main mechanism that, very probably, acted on the pendulum to achieve this result. This perturbation model, called “linear anisotropy”, is characterized by its “coefficient of anisotropy” η, and by the azimuth of its “direction of anisotropy”. The composition of 2 linear anisotropies is always a linear anisotropy. 3) In the search for the phenomena which could be at the origin of all what precedes, the fact that they must create an ovalization immediately eliminates some of them. 4) We have calculated the values of η corresponding to the 24 h and 24 h 50 min waves both for the observations in Horodnic and the Allais observations. The order of magnitude (some 10−7) is effectively the same in both cases. 5) Mathematically, the regularities discovered may result of a new force field but also, as Allais proposes, from the creation, under the astral influences, of a local anisotropy of the medium in which the pendulum oscillates. In the first case the length of the pendulum is involved, in the second one not. The data available do not make it possible to decide. 6) The joint exploitation, in mechanics and optics, of Allais observations and of observations by other experimenters provides additional information: a) Allais, and after him several other scientists, discovered also marked anomalies in the precession of pendulums during certain eclipses, and maybe certain other syzygies. For the few eclipses for which both something was observed and sufficient data were available (one of them being a lunar eclipse for which nothing had been published until now), it was always the above perturbation model which acted on the pendulum, but sometimes with quite exceptional magnitude. b) There are quite possible links with optics. During the observation campaign of August 1958, which had implemented both two pendulums and an optical device, all the 24 h 50 min waves were almost in phase. In the precession of the Allais pendulum, in Miller’s interferometric observations in Mont Wilson, and in Esclangon’s observations in Strasbourg, a same peculiarity is found: the extrema of the annual influence are at the equinoxes, not at the solstices.展开更多
Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accura...Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accurate forecasting of solar activity is crucial. This study investigates the potential of the Sun’s background X-ray flux as a tool for predicting solar flares. We analyzed data collected by solar telescopes and satellites between the years 2013 and 2023, focusing on the duration, frequency, and intensity of solar flares. We compared these characteristics with the background X-ray flux at the time of each flare event. Our analysis employed statistical methods to identify potential correlations between these solar phenomena. The key finding of this study reveals a significant positive correlation between solar flare activity and the Sun’s background X-ray flux. This suggests that these phenomena are interconnected within the framework of overall solar activity. We observed a clear trend: periods with increased occurrences of solar flares coincided with elevated background flux levels. This finding has the potential to improve solar activity forecasting. By monitoring background flux variations, we may be able to develop a more effective early warning system for potentially disruptive solar flares. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between solar flares and the Sun’s overall radiative output. These findings indicate that lower-resolution X-ray sensors can be a valuable tool for identifying periods of increased solar activity by allowing us to monitor background flux variations. A more affordable approach to solar activity monitoring is advised.展开更多
Using continuous wavelet transform, we examine the relationship between solar activity and the annual precipitation in the Beijing area. The results indicate that the annual precipitation is closely related to the var...Using continuous wavelet transform, we examine the relationship between solar activity and the annual precipitation in the Beijing area. The results indicate that the annual precipitation is closely related to the variation of sunspot numbers, and that solar activity probably plays an important role in influencing the precipitation on land.展开更多
The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthl...The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition （that the correlation becomes stronger） is satisfied, the mean prediction error （16.1） is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied （38.7）. This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4 ± 15.7, and the peak as May 2012 ±11 months.展开更多
We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an ope...We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar,cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.展开更多
Predicting the activity of solar flares is of great significance for studying its physical mechanism and the impact on human production and life.Problems such as class imbalance,high time-series sensitivity,and over-l...Predicting the activity of solar flares is of great significance for studying its physical mechanism and the impact on human production and life.Problems such as class imbalance,high time-series sensitivity,and over-localization of important features exist in the sample data used for flare forecasting.We design a solar flare fusion method based on resampling and the CNN-GRU algorithm to try to solve the above problems.In order to verify the effectiveness of this fusion method,first,we compared the forecast performance of different resampling methods by keeping the forecast model unchanged.Then,we used the resampling algorithm with high performance to combine some single forecast models and fusion forecast models respectively.We use the 2010-2017 sunspot data set to train and test the performance of the flare model in predicting flare events in the next 48 h.Through the conclusion of the above steps,we prove that the resampling method SMOTE and its variant SMOTE-ENN are more advantageous in class imbalance problem of flare samples.In addition,after the fusion of one-dimensional convolution and recurrent network with"forget-gate",combined with the SMOTE-ENN to achieve TSS=61%,HSS=61%,TP_(Rate)=77%and TN_(Rate)=83%.This proves that the fusion model based on resampling and the CNN-GRU algorithm is more suitable for solar flare forecasting.展开更多
Using data-driven algorithms to accurately forecast solar flares requires reliable data sets.The solar flare dataset is composed of many non-flaring samples with a small percentage of flaring samples.This is called th...Using data-driven algorithms to accurately forecast solar flares requires reliable data sets.The solar flare dataset is composed of many non-flaring samples with a small percentage of flaring samples.This is called the class imbalance problem in data mining tasks.The prediction model is sensitive to most classes of the original data set during training.Therefore,the class imbalance problem for building up the flare prediction model from observational data should be systematically discussed.Aiming at the problem of class imbalance,three strategies are proposed corresponding to the data set,loss function,and training process:TypeⅠresamples the training samples,including oversampling for the minority class,undersampling,or mixed sampling for the majority class.TypeⅡusually changes the decision-making boundary,assigning the majority and minority categories of prediction loss to different weights.TypeⅢassigns different weights to the training samples,the majority categories are assigned smaller weights,and the minority categories are assigned larger weights to improve the training process of the prediction model.The main work of this paper compares these imbalance processing methods when building a flare prediction model and tries to find the optimal strategy.Our results show that among these strategies,the performance of oversampling and sample weighting is better than other strategies in most parameters,and the generality of resampling and changing the decision boundary is better.展开更多
The maximum amplitude （Rm） of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum （Rmin）. So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low leve...The maximum amplitude （Rm） of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum （Rmin）. So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be followed by a weak Rm, and vice versa. We found that the evidence is insufficient to infer a very weak Cycle 24 from the very low Rmin in the preceding cycle. This is concluded by analyzing the correlation in the temporal variations of parameters for two successive cycles.展开更多
Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an...Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.展开更多
We examine the solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms （Dst ≤ -100 nT）, including intense storms at the level of -200 nT〈 Dst ≤ -100 nT, great storms at -300 nT〈 Dst ≤-200 nT, and super storms at D...We examine the solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms （Dst ≤ -100 nT）, including intense storms at the level of -200 nT〈 Dst ≤ -100 nT, great storms at -300 nT〈 Dst ≤-200 nT, and super storms at Dst ≤ -300 nT, which occurred during the period of 1957-2006, based on Dst indices and smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Statistics show that the majority （82%） of the geomagnetic storms at the level of Dst≤ -100 nT that occurred in the study pe- riod were intense geomagnetic storms, with 12.4% ranked as great storms and 5.6% as super storms. It is interesting to note that about 27% of the geomagnetic storms that occurred at all three intensity levels appeared in the ascending phase of a solar cycle, and about 73% in the descending one. Statistics also show that 76.9% of the intense storms, 79.6% of the great storms and 90.9% of the super storms occurred during the two years before a solar cycle reached its peak, or in the three years after it. The correlation between the size of a solar cycle and the percentage of major storms that occurred, during the period from two years prior to maximum to three years af- ter it, is investigated. Finally, the properties of the multi-peak distribution for major geomagnetic storms in each solar cycle is investigated.展开更多
文摘In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to appear as bipolar magnetic couples. According to the results obtained, a possible explanation about the change of polarity in both solar hemispheres is given. Heuristic but logical arguments about the periodicity of the phenomenon of the observed magnetic polarity and the tendency of couples of Sunspots to appear solely in certain latitudes that can be called tropical regions of the Sun are presented. Finally, an indirect experimental test is proposed to show the possible process that produces the polarity of the Sunspots in a given cycle, as well as the invertion of that polarity in the next solar cycle.
文摘Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core temperature of the gas cloud rises to 10million K, the thermonuclear reaction of hydrogen fusion into helium is ignited, then the Sun become a star;once the hydrogen in thecore is exhausted, the life of the star will end. But the limited hydrogen element obviously cannot satisfy such a long-termthermonuclear reaction, in order to sustain long-term thermonuclear reactions, a steady stream of fuel must be obtained from space.So the existing hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System has serious defects. Thus the author has studied theformation of the Moon, the Earth and the Sun, and discovered the formation of the Sun and the real source of star energy. The authorcould also explain many solar activity phenomena such as sunspots, flares, prominences, etc.
文摘Detecting naturally arising structures in data is central to knowledge extraction from data. In most applications, the main challenge is in the choice of the appropriate model for exploring the data features. The choice is generally poorly understood and any tentative choice may be too restrictive. Growing volumes of data, disparate data sources and modelling techniques entail the need for model optimization via adaptability rather than comparability. We propose a novel two-stage algorithm to modelling continuous data consisting of an unsupervised stage whereby the algorithm searches through the data for optimal parameter values and a supervised stage that adapts the parameters for predictive modelling. The method is implemented on the sunspots data with inherently Gaussian distributional properties and assumed bi-modality. Optimal values separating high from lows cycles are obtained via multiple simulations. Early patterns for each recorded cycle reveal that the first 3 years provide a sufficient basis for predicting the peak. Multiple Support Vector Machine runs using repeatedly improved data parameters show that the approach yields greater accuracy and reliability than conventional approaches and provides a good basis for model selection. Model reliability is established via multiple simulations of this type.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11573065 and 11633008)the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories and the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation.The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices（ESAI）elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past.In this study,ESAI＇s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear.It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function.In addition,the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses,providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models.Indeed,the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period,and it is located at higher latitudinal position,giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.
文摘This paper analyses the relationship of forest fires and sunspots in Hcilongjiang Province in the past 40 ycars(1950-1989). The results indicated that each of the forest fire indexes such as forest Fire rate(y1), times of forest firc(Y2), average forest fire area for one time Y4 (equals the Y5 / Y2) and total forest fire arca(Y5) has a negative correlation with mean annual relative sunspots of the same year; total times of forest fire inside and outside of forest stands( Y3) has a positive correlation with sunspots. The 5 indexes stated above has a similar relation to last year's mean annual relative sunspots.
文摘This study analyzes the evolution and dynamics of intensity oscillations in coronal sunspots and their surroundings using multi-wavelength image data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly(AIA)and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager(HMI)on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory(SDO).Intensity time series were extracted and analyzed from consecutive macropixels along thin coronal loop paths originating in a quiet sunspot.Fourier and wavelet analyses of corrected intensity time series reveal dominant 3 and 5 minute oscillations.Signals were filtered using the Fourier and inverse transforms to isolate narrow bands around the dominant oscillation periods.Diagrams and time-distance maps of intensity time series were plotted for Fourierfiltered AIA 131A,171A,193A,and 211Achannels,along with SDO/HMI magnetograms and dopplergrams at 6173A.The plots clearly show propagating oscillations with amplitude modulation(AM)across all macropixels along selected coronal paths in nearly all AIA and HMI channels.The phase speeds of the filtered oscillations,measured via slope calculations in time-distance maps,indicate that the intensity disturbances are slow magneto-acoustic waves.These results suggest that AM likely arises from the superposition of counterpropagating waves with slightly different frequencies(beta-like phenomena)due to Doppler shifts from background plasma flow along loop paths.Validating this hypothesis could establish AM's significance in solar coronal seismology for determining background plasma flow speed,the source of long-period oscillations,and coronal plasma heating mechanisms.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant Nos.42374092,41074132,41274193,41474166,41774195,and 41874187)the Special Fund of the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration(Grant Number DQJB22X12)。
文摘We examined the heliolatitude distribution and North-South(N-S)asymmetry of Ground Level Enhancement(GLE)event source locations from 1942 to 2024,finding distinct patterns between the periods 1942–1979 and1980–2024.Between 1942 and 1979,33 GLE events were recorded:5 from the southern hemisphere within[S3,S11]and 28 from the northern hemisphere within[N7,N37].The southeast quadrant was devoid of any source locations for GLE events.45.4%of the source locations of the GLE events were within the latitudinal range of[S15,N15].The remaining source locations of the GLE events were distributed at latitudes above 15°in the northern hemisphere.Between 1980 and 2024,43 GLE events were recorded:25 from the southern hemisphere and 18 from the northern hemisphere,with all events above 30°latitude originating from the northern hemisphere.Approximately 44.2%of the source locations of the GLE events were distributed within the latitudinal band[S15,N15].Over the period from 1942 to 2024,44.7%within[S15,N15],63.2%within[S20,N20],80.3%within[S25,N25],88.2%within[S30,N30],and 11.8%at latitudes above 30°.N-S asymmetry was significant at latitudes above 0°,5°,10°,15°,20°and 30°,with northern hemisphere dominance.Moreover,a strong inverse correlation exists between the number of GLE events from the northern and southern hemispheres at latitudes above 0°,5°,10°,15°,20°,25°and 30°.
文摘With the advancement of astronomical observation technology,people have a deeper understanding of the formation and evolution of galaxies,but many details of our own Milky Way and other external galaxies are still unknown.Therefore,by studying the formation and orbital transformation mechanism of satellites,planets and stars,the author puts forward a new theory on the formation and evolution of stars and galaxies,thus revealing the hierarchical structure of galaxies and the formation and evolution laws of main sequence stars,red giants,white dwarfs,black dwarfs,supernovae,neutron stars,black holes and quasars.Some special phenomena in the course of star formation and evolution,such as sunspots,flares,fast radio bursts and gamma-ray bursts,have also been revealed.
文摘The automatic detection and analysis of sunspots play a crucial role in understanding solar dynamics and predicting space weather events.This paper proposes a novel method for sunspot group detection and classification called the dual stream Convolutional Neural Network with Attention Mechanism(DSCNN-AM).The network consists of two parallel streams each processing different input data allowing for joint processing of spatial and temporal information while classifying sunspots.It takes in the white light images as well as the corresponding magnetic images that reveal both the optical and magnetic features of sunspots.The extracted features are then fused and processed by fully connected layers to perform detection and classification.The attention mechanism is further integrated to address the“edge dimming”problem which improves the model’s ability to handle sunspots near the edge of the solar disk.The network is trained and tested on the SOLAR-STORM1 data set.The results demonstrate that the DSCNN-AM achieves superior performance compared to existing methods,with a total accuracy exceeding 90%.
文摘The time series of daily data on solar activity proxies, namely the sunspot number(SSN), sunspot area(SSA), solar radio flux(F10.7), modified coronal index(MCI), solar flare index(FI), and cosmic ray intensity(CRI), were analyzed to understand the solar activity modulations and short-term periodicities therein. Rieger-type and other short-term periods include the solar rotational period that covers the maximum activity phase period(maximum phase of solar cycle 24). The wavelet power spectra and Periodogram of SSN, SSA, F10.7, MCI, FI, and CRI exhibited a significant short-term period. The heliospheric effects exist for a particular period(~27 days) and they are related to the solar activity phenomena. The cross-correlation coefficients and time lags between the CRI and solar activity parameters were estimated to be ~200, 46, 281, 39, and 47 days for SSN, SSA, F10.7, MCI, and FI respectively during the time series 2012–2015(maximum phase of solar cycle 24).
文摘1) The observation by Allais of the precession of pendulums from 1954 to 1960 highlighted regularities of astral origin an in-depth analysis of which showed that, apparently, no classical phenomenon can explain them. These regularities were diurnal waves whose periods are characteristic of astral influence (the main ones being 24 h and 24 h 50 min), annual and semi-annual components, and a multi-annual component of approximately 6 years, an influence of Jupiter being a very good candidate to explain it. 2) Allais had experimentally established that all these astral influences were expressed globally on the pendulum by an action tending to call back its plane of oscillation towards a direction variable in time, and which ovalized its trajectory. In 2019 the observation of 2 pendulums in Horodnic (Romania), thanks to the use of an automatic alidade, made it possible to identify the main mechanism that, very probably, acted on the pendulum to achieve this result. This perturbation model, called “linear anisotropy”, is characterized by its “coefficient of anisotropy” η, and by the azimuth of its “direction of anisotropy”. The composition of 2 linear anisotropies is always a linear anisotropy. 3) In the search for the phenomena which could be at the origin of all what precedes, the fact that they must create an ovalization immediately eliminates some of them. 4) We have calculated the values of η corresponding to the 24 h and 24 h 50 min waves both for the observations in Horodnic and the Allais observations. The order of magnitude (some 10−7) is effectively the same in both cases. 5) Mathematically, the regularities discovered may result of a new force field but also, as Allais proposes, from the creation, under the astral influences, of a local anisotropy of the medium in which the pendulum oscillates. In the first case the length of the pendulum is involved, in the second one not. The data available do not make it possible to decide. 6) The joint exploitation, in mechanics and optics, of Allais observations and of observations by other experimenters provides additional information: a) Allais, and after him several other scientists, discovered also marked anomalies in the precession of pendulums during certain eclipses, and maybe certain other syzygies. For the few eclipses for which both something was observed and sufficient data were available (one of them being a lunar eclipse for which nothing had been published until now), it was always the above perturbation model which acted on the pendulum, but sometimes with quite exceptional magnitude. b) There are quite possible links with optics. During the observation campaign of August 1958, which had implemented both two pendulums and an optical device, all the 24 h 50 min waves were almost in phase. In the precession of the Allais pendulum, in Miller’s interferometric observations in Mont Wilson, and in Esclangon’s observations in Strasbourg, a same peculiarity is found: the extrema of the annual influence are at the equinoxes, not at the solstices.
文摘Solar flares, sudden bursts of intense electromagnetic radiation from the Sun, can significantly disrupt technological infrastructure, including communication and navigation satellites. To mitigate these risks, accurate forecasting of solar activity is crucial. This study investigates the potential of the Sun’s background X-ray flux as a tool for predicting solar flares. We analyzed data collected by solar telescopes and satellites between the years 2013 and 2023, focusing on the duration, frequency, and intensity of solar flares. We compared these characteristics with the background X-ray flux at the time of each flare event. Our analysis employed statistical methods to identify potential correlations between these solar phenomena. The key finding of this study reveals a significant positive correlation between solar flare activity and the Sun’s background X-ray flux. This suggests that these phenomena are interconnected within the framework of overall solar activity. We observed a clear trend: periods with increased occurrences of solar flares coincided with elevated background flux levels. This finding has the potential to improve solar activity forecasting. By monitoring background flux variations, we may be able to develop a more effective early warning system for potentially disruptive solar flares. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex relationship between solar flares and the Sun’s overall radiative output. These findings indicate that lower-resolution X-ray sensors can be a valuable tool for identifying periods of increased solar activity by allowing us to monitor background flux variations. A more affordable approach to solar activity monitoring is advised.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Using continuous wavelet transform, we examine the relationship between solar activity and the annual precipitation in the Beijing area. The results indicate that the annual precipitation is closely related to the variation of sunspot numbers, and that solar activity probably plays an important role in influencing the precipitation on land.
基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences through Grant KGCX3-SYW-403-10the NSFC through Grants 10733020 and 10673017the National Ministry of Science and Technology through Grant 2006CB806307
文摘The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition （that the correlation becomes stronger） is satisfied, the mean prediction error （16.1） is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied （38.7）. This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4 ± 15.7, and the peak as May 2012 ±11 months.
基金This work is supported by National Nature Science Foundation Project No.4999-0451Space Environmental Prediction CenterCenter for Space Science and Applied Research, CAS, China.
文摘We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar,cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11975086)project“3D Magnetic Reconnection Reconnection Area Structure Experimental and Numerical Simulation Research”。
文摘Predicting the activity of solar flares is of great significance for studying its physical mechanism and the impact on human production and life.Problems such as class imbalance,high time-series sensitivity,and over-localization of important features exist in the sample data used for flare forecasting.We design a solar flare fusion method based on resampling and the CNN-GRU algorithm to try to solve the above problems.In order to verify the effectiveness of this fusion method,first,we compared the forecast performance of different resampling methods by keeping the forecast model unchanged.Then,we used the resampling algorithm with high performance to combine some single forecast models and fusion forecast models respectively.We use the 2010-2017 sunspot data set to train and test the performance of the flare model in predicting flare events in the next 48 h.Through the conclusion of the above steps,we prove that the resampling method SMOTE and its variant SMOTE-ENN are more advantageous in class imbalance problem of flare samples.In addition,after the fusion of one-dimensional convolution and recurrent network with"forget-gate",combined with the SMOTE-ENN to achieve TSS=61%,HSS=61%,TP_(Rate)=77%and TN_(Rate)=83%.This proves that the fusion model based on resampling and the CNN-GRU algorithm is more suitable for solar flare forecasting.
文摘Using data-driven algorithms to accurately forecast solar flares requires reliable data sets.The solar flare dataset is composed of many non-flaring samples with a small percentage of flaring samples.This is called the class imbalance problem in data mining tasks.The prediction model is sensitive to most classes of the original data set during training.Therefore,the class imbalance problem for building up the flare prediction model from observational data should be systematically discussed.Aiming at the problem of class imbalance,three strategies are proposed corresponding to the data set,loss function,and training process:TypeⅠresamples the training samples,including oversampling for the minority class,undersampling,or mixed sampling for the majority class.TypeⅡusually changes the decision-making boundary,assigning the majority and minority categories of prediction loss to different weights.TypeⅢassigns different weights to the training samples,the majority categories are assigned smaller weights,and the minority categories are assigned larger weights to improve the training process of the prediction model.The main work of this paper compares these imbalance processing methods when building a flare prediction model and tries to find the optimal strategy.Our results show that among these strategies,the performance of oversampling and sample weighting is better than other strategies in most parameters,and the generality of resampling and changing the decision boundary is better.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.10973020 and 40890161)supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences through grant KJCX2-YWT04
文摘The maximum amplitude （Rm） of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum （Rmin）. So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be followed by a weak Rm, and vice versa. We found that the evidence is insufficient to infer a very weak Cycle 24 from the very low Rmin in the preceding cycle. This is concluded by analyzing the correlation in the temporal variations of parameters for two successive cycles.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) undergrant numbers 10673031 and 40636031the National Basic Research Program of China 973 undergrant number G2006CB806301.
文摘Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant Nos. 2012CB957801 and 2011CB811406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41074132, 41274193 and 40931056)the National Standard Research Program (Grant No. 10-123)
文摘We examine the solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms （Dst ≤ -100 nT）, including intense storms at the level of -200 nT〈 Dst ≤ -100 nT, great storms at -300 nT〈 Dst ≤-200 nT, and super storms at Dst ≤ -300 nT, which occurred during the period of 1957-2006, based on Dst indices and smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Statistics show that the majority （82%） of the geomagnetic storms at the level of Dst≤ -100 nT that occurred in the study pe- riod were intense geomagnetic storms, with 12.4% ranked as great storms and 5.6% as super storms. It is interesting to note that about 27% of the geomagnetic storms that occurred at all three intensity levels appeared in the ascending phase of a solar cycle, and about 73% in the descending one. Statistics also show that 76.9% of the intense storms, 79.6% of the great storms and 90.9% of the super storms occurred during the two years before a solar cycle reached its peak, or in the three years after it. The correlation between the size of a solar cycle and the percentage of major storms that occurred, during the period from two years prior to maximum to three years af- ter it, is investigated. Finally, the properties of the multi-peak distribution for major geomagnetic storms in each solar cycle is investigated.
