The paper establishes two stochastic SIRS models with jumps to describe the spread of network virus by cyber war, terrorism and others. First, adding random perturbations proportionally to each variable, we get the dy...The paper establishes two stochastic SIRS models with jumps to describe the spread of network virus by cyber war, terrorism and others. First, adding random perturbations proportionally to each variable, we get the dynamic properties around the positive equilibrium of the deterministic model and the conditions for persistence and extinction. Second, giving a random disturbance to endemic equilibrium, we get a stochastic system with jumps. By modifying the existing Lyapunov function, we prove the positive solution of the system is stochastically stable.展开更多
A detailed analysis was carried out on global asymptotic behavior of a kind of stochastic SIRS(susceptible-infective-removed-susceptible)model.This model has been obtained by introducing stochasticity into the origina...A detailed analysis was carried out on global asymptotic behavior of a kind of stochastic SIRS(susceptible-infective-removed-susceptible)model.This model has been obtained by introducing stochasticity into the original deterministic SIRS model via the technique of parameter perturbation which is standard in stochastic population modeling.By making corresponding Lyapunov function and using It formula,the condition for the solution of the model tending to the disease free equilibrium asymptotically was obtained.Under this condition,the epidemics will die out as time goes by.Based on this,almost surely exponential stability was analyzed.展开更多
A stochastic susceptible-infective-recovered-susceptible( SIRS) model with non-linear incidence and Levy jumps was considered. Under certain conditions, the SIRS had a global positive solution. The stochastically ulti...A stochastic susceptible-infective-recovered-susceptible( SIRS) model with non-linear incidence and Levy jumps was considered. Under certain conditions, the SIRS had a global positive solution. The stochastically ultimate boundedness of the solution of the model was obtained by using the method of Lyapunov function and the generalized Ito's formula. At last,asymptotic behaviors of the solution were discussed according to the value of R0. If R0< 1,the solution of the model oscillates around a steady state, which is the diseases free equilibrium of the corresponding deterministic model,and if R0> 1,it fluctuates around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model.展开更多
Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure,it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics.Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals,the spread of epidemics is more ...Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure,it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics.Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals,the spread of epidemics is more appropriately viewed as a Markov chain.Therefore,we establish stochastic SIRS models with vaccination on networks to study the mean and variance of the number of susceptible and infected individuals for large-scale populations.Using van Kampen's system-size expansion,we derive a high-dimensional deterministic system which describes the mean behaviour and a Fokker-Planck equation which characterizes the variance around deterministic trajectories.Utilizing the qualitative analysis technique and Lyapunov function,we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium of the deterministic system is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number R_(0)<1;and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R_(0)>1.Through the analysis of the Fokker-Planck equation,we obtain the asymptotic expression for the variance of the number of susceptible and infected individuals around the endemic equilibrium,which can be approximated by the elements of principal diagonal of the solution of the corresponding Lyapunov equation.Here,the solution of Lyapunov equation is expressed by vectorization operator of matrices and Kronecker product.Finally,numerical simulations illustrate that vaccination can reduce infections and increase fluctuations of the number of infected individuals and show that individuals with greater degree are more easily infected.展开更多
In this paper, we study a delayed SIRS model with nonlocal diffusion. The well posedness of the model is investigated. Furthermore, we concern with the problem of traveling wave solutions. By using the partial quasi-m...In this paper, we study a delayed SIRS model with nonlocal diffusion. The well posedness of the model is investigated. Furthermore, we concern with the problem of traveling wave solutions. By using the partial quasi-monotone condition, cross-iteration scheme and fixed-point theorem, sufficient conditions are derived for the existence of traveling waves connecting the two equilibria which depends on the existence of a pair of upper solution and lower solution. We in fact construct a pair of upper solution and lower solution concretely to guarantee the existence of traveling waves.展开更多
It is of crucial significance to study the infectious disease phenomenon by using the SIRS model and thoughts of Julia set.In this paper,Julia set of the discrete version of the SIRS model is established to analyze th...It is of crucial significance to study the infectious disease phenomenon by using the SIRS model and thoughts of Julia set.In this paper,Julia set of the discrete version of the SIRS model is established to analyze the fractal dynamics of this model.Then,controller is designed to change the Julia set.Furthermore,the box-counting dimensions of the controlled Julia sets by selecting different appropriate parameters are computed to show the complexity of the model.Finally,a nonlinear coupling method is introduced to synchronize the Julia sets with different parameters of the same system.Simulation results show the efficacy of t hese met hods.展开更多
ln this paper,we propose and investigate an SlRS model with age structure and twodelays.Both the infected and the recovered individuals have age structure,the infectionrate(from the infective to the susceptible)and th...ln this paper,we propose and investigate an SlRS model with age structure and twodelays.Both the infected and the recovered individuals have age structure,the infectionrate(from the infective to the susceptible)and the immune loss rate(from the recoveredto the susceptible)are related to two independent time delays,respectively.We provethat the proposed age structured SIRS model is well-posed by using the Co-semigrouptheory.The basic reproduction number Ro is given,and the unique endemic equilib-rium exists when R_(0)>1,while the disease-free equilibrium always exists.A rigorousmathematical analysis for the stability of two equilibria is provided.The disease-freeequilibrium is local asymptotically stable if R_(0)<1,and the endemic equilibrium is localasymptotically stable if R_(0)>1 and τl=0.Finally,we give numerical simulations toverify our results.展开更多
This paper is concerned with a delayed SIRS epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate. The main results are given in terms of local stability and Hopf bifurcation. Sufficient conditions for the local stability of...This paper is concerned with a delayed SIRS epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate. The main results are given in terms of local stability and Hopf bifurcation. Sufficient conditions for the local stability of the positive equilibrium and existence of Hopf bifurcation are obtained by regarding the time delay as the bifurcation parameter. Further,the properties of Hopf bifurcation such as the direction and stability are investigated by using the normal form theory and center manifold argument. Finally,some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical analysis.展开更多
In this article, an SIRS epidemic model spread by vectors （mosquitoes） which have an incubation time to become infectious is formulated. It is shown that a disease-free equilibrium point is globally stable if no end...In this article, an SIRS epidemic model spread by vectors （mosquitoes） which have an incubation time to become infectious is formulated. It is shown that a disease-free equilibrium point is globally stable if no endemic equilibrium point exists. Further, the endemic equilibrium point （if it exists） is globally stable with a respect ＂weak delay＂. Some known results are generalized.展开更多
In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By u...In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.展开更多
This paper is mainly concerned with the existence and nonexistence of traveling wave solutions of a nonlocal dispersal SIRS model with nonlocal delayed transmissions. We find that the existence and nonexistence of tra...This paper is mainly concerned with the existence and nonexistence of traveling wave solutions of a nonlocal dispersal SIRS model with nonlocal delayed transmissions. We find that the existence and nonexistence of traveling wave solutions are determined by the critical wave speed c^＊. More specifically, we establish the existence of traveling wave solutions for every wave speed c〉c^＊ and R0 〉 1 by means of upper-lower solutions and Schauder＇s fixed point theorem. Nonexistence of traveling wave solutions is obtained by Laplace transform for any wave speed c ∈ （0, c^＊） and R0 〉 1.展开更多
Based on the mechanism of prevention and control of infectious disease, we propose, in this paper, an SIRS epidemic model with varying total population size and state-dependent control, where the fraction of susceptib...Based on the mechanism of prevention and control of infectious disease, we propose, in this paper, an SIRS epidemic model with varying total population size and state-dependent control, where the fraction of susceptible individuals in population is as the detection threshold value. By the Poincaré map, theory of differential inequalities and differential equation geometry, the existence and orbital stability of the disease-free periodic solution are discussed. Theoretical results show that by state-dependent pulse vaccination we can make the proportion of infected individuals tend to zero, and control the transmission of disease in population.展开更多
In view of the pressure time of emergency rescue against the infectious diseases,a mathematical model to optimize the location of emergency rescue centers is proposed.The model takes full account of the spread functio...In view of the pressure time of emergency rescue against the infectious diseases,a mathematical model to optimize the location of emergency rescue centers is proposed.The model takes full account of the spread function of infectious diseases,the cycle of pulse vaccination,the distance between the demand area and the emergency rescue centers,as well as the building and maintenance cost for the emergency rescue center,and so on.At the same time,the model integrates the traditional location selection models which are the biggest cover model,the p-center model and the p-median model,and it embodies the principles of fairness and efficiency for the emergency center location.Finally,a computation of an example arising from practice provides satisfactory results.展开更多
In this paper, to study rumor spreading, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-removed （SIR） model by introducing the trust mechanism. We derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the SIR model on ...In this paper, to study rumor spreading, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-removed （SIR） model by introducing the trust mechanism. We derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the SIR model on homogeneous networks and inhomogeneous networks. Then a steady-state analysis is conducted to investigate the critical threshold and the finaJ size of the rumor spreading. We show that the introduction of trust mechanism reduces the final rumor size and the velocity of rumor spreading, but increases the critical thresholds on both networks. Moreover, the trust mechanism not only greatly reduces the maximum rumor influence, but also postpones the rumor terminal time, which provides us with more time to take measures to control the rumor spreading. The theoretical results are confirmed by sufficient numerical simulations.展开更多
In this article, we establish the global stability of an endemic equilibrium of multi-group SIR epidemic models, which have not only an exchange of individuals between patches through migration but also cross patch in...In this article, we establish the global stability of an endemic equilibrium of multi-group SIR epidemic models, which have not only an exchange of individuals between patches through migration but also cross patch infection between different groups. As a result, we partially generalize the recent result in the article [16].展开更多
This paper is concerned with the spatial propagation of an SIR epidemic model with nonlocal diffusion and free boundaries describing the evolution of a disease.This model can be viewed as a nonlocal version of the fre...This paper is concerned with the spatial propagation of an SIR epidemic model with nonlocal diffusion and free boundaries describing the evolution of a disease.This model can be viewed as a nonlocal version of the free boundary problem studied by Kim et al.(An SIR epidemic model with free boundary.Nonlinear Anal RWA,2013,14:1992-2001).We first prove that this problem has a unique solution defined for all time,and then we give sufficient conditions for the disease vanishing and spreading.Our result shows that the disease will not spread if the basic reproduction number R_(0)<1,or the initial infected area h_(0),expanding ability μ and the initial datum S_(0) are all small enough when 1<R_(0)<1+d/μ_(2)+α.Furthermore,we show that if 1<R_(0)<1+d/μ_(2)+α,the disease will spread when h_(0) is large enough or h_(0) is small but μ is large enough.It is expected that the disease will always spread when R_(0)≥1+d/μ_(2)+α which is different from the local model.展开更多
In this paper we present a model with spatial heterogeneity based on cellular automata （CA）. In the model we consider the relevant heterogeneity of host （susceptible） mixing and the natural birth rate. We divide t...In this paper we present a model with spatial heterogeneity based on cellular automata （CA）. In the model we consider the relevant heterogeneity of host （susceptible） mixing and the natural birth rate. We divide the susceptible population into three groups according to the immunity of each individual based on the classical susceptible-infectedremoved （SIR） epidemic models, and consider the spread of an infectious disease transmitted by direct contact among humans and vectors that have not an incubation period to become infectious. We test the local stability and instability of the disease-free equilibrium by the spectrum radii of Jacobian. The simulation shows that the structure of the nearest neighbour size of the cell （or the degree of the scale-free networks） plays a very important role in the spread properties of infectious disease. The positive equilibrium of the infections versus the neighbour size follows the third power law if an endemic equilibrium point exists. Finally, we analyse the feature of the infection waves for the homogeneity and heterogeneous cases respectively.展开更多
In this paper,we study the approximate solutions for some of nonlinear Biomathematics models via the e-epidemic SI1I2R model characterizing the spread of viruses in a computer network and SIR childhood disease model.T...In this paper,we study the approximate solutions for some of nonlinear Biomathematics models via the e-epidemic SI1I2R model characterizing the spread of viruses in a computer network and SIR childhood disease model.The reduced differential transforms method(RDTM)is one of the interesting methods for finding the approximate solutions for nonlinear problems.We apply the RDTM to discuss the analytic approximate solutions to the SI1I2R model for the spread of virus HCV-subtype and SIR childhood disease model.We discuss the numerical results at some special values of parameters in the approximate solutions.We use the computer software package such as Mathematical to find more iteration when calculating the approximate solutions.Graphical results and discussed quantitatively are presented to illustrate behavior of the obtained approximate solutions.展开更多
At the time of writing,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world.Many epidemic models have been developed to provide references for decision-making by gover...At the time of writing,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world.Many epidemic models have been developed to provide references for decision-making by governments and the World Health Organization.To capture and understand the characteristics of the epidemic trend,parameter optimization algorithms are needed to obtain model parameters.In this study,the authors propose using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm(LMA)to identify epidemic models.This algorithm combines the advantage of the Gauss–Newton method and gradient descent method and has improved the stability of parameters.The authors selected four countries with relatively high numbers of confirmed cases to verify the advantages of the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm over the traditional epidemiological model method.The results show that the Statistical-SIR(Statistical-Susceptible–Infected–Recovered)model using LMA can fit the actual curve of the epidemic well,while the epidemic simulation of the traditional model evolves too fast and the peak value is too high to reflect the real situation.展开更多
This paper presents a restricted SIRmathematicalmodel to analyze the evolution of a contagious infectious disease outbreak(COVID-19)using available data.The new model focuses on two main concepts:first,it can present ...This paper presents a restricted SIRmathematicalmodel to analyze the evolution of a contagious infectious disease outbreak(COVID-19)using available data.The new model focuses on two main concepts:first,it can present multiple waves of the disease,and second,it analyzes how far an infection can be eradicated with the help of vaccination.The stability analysis of the equilibrium points for the suggested model is initially investigated by identifying the matching equilibrium points and examining their stability.The basic reproduction number is calculated,and the positivity of the solutions is established.Numerical simulations are performed to determine if it is multipeak and evaluate vaccination’s effects.In addition,the proposed model is compared to the literature already published and the effectiveness of vaccination has been recorded.展开更多
基金partially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(A201420)Educational Reform Project of Heilongjiang Province(JG2013010482)+1 种基金Foundation of Heilongjiang Province Educational Committee(12541696)the Natural Science Foundation of China(11401136,11301112,11301207,11501148)
文摘The paper establishes two stochastic SIRS models with jumps to describe the spread of network virus by cyber war, terrorism and others. First, adding random perturbations proportionally to each variable, we get the dynamic properties around the positive equilibrium of the deterministic model and the conditions for persistence and extinction. Second, giving a random disturbance to endemic equilibrium, we get a stochastic system with jumps. By modifying the existing Lyapunov function, we prove the positive solution of the system is stochastically stable.
基金Foundation of Shanghai for Outstanding Young Teachers in University,China(No.B-5300-08-007)the 085 Knowledge Innovation Project of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission,China(No.Z08509008-01)Humanities and SocialScience Fund General Project of Ministry of Education,China(No.08JA630051)
文摘A detailed analysis was carried out on global asymptotic behavior of a kind of stochastic SIRS(susceptible-infective-removed-susceptible)model.This model has been obtained by introducing stochasticity into the original deterministic SIRS model via the technique of parameter perturbation which is standard in stochastic population modeling.By making corresponding Lyapunov function and using It formula,the condition for the solution of the model tending to the disease free equilibrium asymptotically was obtained.Under this condition,the epidemics will die out as time goes by.Based on this,almost surely exponential stability was analyzed.
基金National Natural Science Foundations of China(No.11071259,No.11371374)Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China(No.20110162110060)
文摘A stochastic susceptible-infective-recovered-susceptible( SIRS) model with non-linear incidence and Levy jumps was considered. Under certain conditions, the SIRS had a global positive solution. The stochastically ultimate boundedness of the solution of the model was obtained by using the method of Lyapunov function and the generalized Ito's formula. At last,asymptotic behaviors of the solution were discussed according to the value of R0. If R0< 1,the solution of the model oscillates around a steady state, which is the diseases free equilibrium of the corresponding deterministic model,and if R0> 1,it fluctuates around the endemic equilibrium of the deterministic model.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12371494,12231012,11971279)Shanxi Provincial Key Research and Development Project(No.202202020101010).
文摘Due to the heterogeneity of contact structure,it is more reasonable to model on networks for epidemics.Because of the stochastic nature of events and the discrete number of individuals,the spread of epidemics is more appropriately viewed as a Markov chain.Therefore,we establish stochastic SIRS models with vaccination on networks to study the mean and variance of the number of susceptible and infected individuals for large-scale populations.Using van Kampen's system-size expansion,we derive a high-dimensional deterministic system which describes the mean behaviour and a Fokker-Planck equation which characterizes the variance around deterministic trajectories.Utilizing the qualitative analysis technique and Lyapunov function,we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium of the deterministic system is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number R_(0)<1;and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R_(0)>1.Through the analysis of the Fokker-Planck equation,we obtain the asymptotic expression for the variance of the number of susceptible and infected individuals around the endemic equilibrium,which can be approximated by the elements of principal diagonal of the solution of the corresponding Lyapunov equation.Here,the solution of Lyapunov equation is expressed by vectorization operator of matrices and Kronecker product.Finally,numerical simulations illustrate that vaccination can reduce infections and increase fluctuations of the number of infected individuals and show that individuals with greater degree are more easily infected.
文摘In this paper, we study a delayed SIRS model with nonlocal diffusion. The well posedness of the model is investigated. Furthermore, we concern with the problem of traveling wave solutions. By using the partial quasi-monotone condition, cross-iteration scheme and fixed-point theorem, sufficient conditions are derived for the existence of traveling waves connecting the two equilibria which depends on the existence of a pair of upper solution and lower solution. We in fact construct a pair of upper solution and lower solution concretely to guarantee the existence of traveling waves.
基金The authors are grateful to the anonymous referee for his helpful comments and valuable suggestions.This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong joint fund(No.U1806203)Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2019MA051)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2019ZRJC005)National Nat-ural Science Foundation of China key fund(No.61533011).
文摘It is of crucial significance to study the infectious disease phenomenon by using the SIRS model and thoughts of Julia set.In this paper,Julia set of the discrete version of the SIRS model is established to analyze the fractal dynamics of this model.Then,controller is designed to change the Julia set.Furthermore,the box-counting dimensions of the controlled Julia sets by selecting different appropriate parameters are computed to show the complexity of the model.Finally,a nonlinear coupling method is introduced to synchronize the Julia sets with different parameters of the same system.Simulation results show the efficacy of t hese met hods.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11871179,11861040 and 11961037)Science and technology project of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education(G.J.J190923 and GJ.J170951).
文摘ln this paper,we propose and investigate an SlRS model with age structure and twodelays.Both the infected and the recovered individuals have age structure,the infectionrate(from the infective to the susceptible)and the immune loss rate(from the recoveredto the susceptible)are related to two independent time delays,respectively.We provethat the proposed age structured SIRS model is well-posed by using the Co-semigrouptheory.The basic reproduction number Ro is given,and the unique endemic equilib-rium exists when R_(0)>1,while the disease-free equilibrium always exists.A rigorousmathematical analysis for the stability of two equilibria is provided.The disease-freeequilibrium is local asymptotically stable if R_(0)<1,and the endemic equilibrium is localasymptotically stable if R_(0)>1 and τl=0.Finally,we give numerical simulations toverify our results.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61273070)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions,China
文摘This paper is concerned with a delayed SIRS epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate. The main results are given in terms of local stability and Hopf bifurcation. Sufficient conditions for the local stability of the positive equilibrium and existence of Hopf bifurcation are obtained by regarding the time delay as the bifurcation parameter. Further,the properties of Hopf bifurcation such as the direction and stability are investigated by using the normal form theory and center manifold argument. Finally,some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical analysis.
基金This work is supported by the National Sciences Foundation of China (10471040)the Youth Science Foundations of Shanxi Province (20021003).
文摘In this article, an SIRS epidemic model spread by vectors （mosquitoes） which have an incubation time to become infectious is formulated. It is shown that a disease-free equilibrium point is globally stable if no endemic equilibrium point exists. Further, the endemic equilibrium point （if it exists） is globally stable with a respect ＂weak delay＂. Some known results are generalized.
基金supported in part by JSPS Fellows,No.237213 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science to the first authorthe Grant MTM2010-18318 of the MICINN,Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation to the second authorScientific Research (c),No.21540230 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science to the third author
文摘In this article, we establish the global asymptotic stability of a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium of an SIRS epidemic model with a class of nonlin- ear incidence rates and distributed delays. By using strict monotonicity of the incidence function and constructing a Lyapunov functional, we obtain sufficient conditions under which the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When the nonlinear inci- dence rate is a saturated incidence rate, our result provides a new global stability condition for a small rate of immunity loss.
基金AcknowledgmentsWe are very grateful to the invaluable suggestions made by anonymous referees. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, RFDP and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central University.
文摘This paper is mainly concerned with the existence and nonexistence of traveling wave solutions of a nonlocal dispersal SIRS model with nonlocal delayed transmissions. We find that the existence and nonexistence of traveling wave solutions are determined by the critical wave speed c^＊. More specifically, we establish the existence of traveling wave solutions for every wave speed c〉c^＊ and R0 〉 1 by means of upper-lower solutions and Schauder＇s fixed point theorem. Nonexistence of traveling wave solutions is obtained by Laplace transform for any wave speed c ∈ （0, c^＊） and R0 〉 1.
文摘Based on the mechanism of prevention and control of infectious disease, we propose, in this paper, an SIRS epidemic model with varying total population size and state-dependent control, where the fraction of susceptible individuals in population is as the detection threshold value. By the Poincaré map, theory of differential inequalities and differential equation geometry, the existence and orbital stability of the disease-free periodic solution are discussed. Theoretical results show that by state-dependent pulse vaccination we can make the proportion of infected individuals tend to zero, and control the transmission of disease in population.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.70671021)the National Key Technology R&D Program of China during the 11th Five-Year Plan Period(No.2006BAH02A06)
文摘In view of the pressure time of emergency rescue against the infectious diseases,a mathematical model to optimize the location of emergency rescue centers is proposed.The model takes full account of the spread function of infectious diseases,the cycle of pulse vaccination,the distance between the demand area and the emergency rescue centers,as well as the building and maintenance cost for the emergency rescue center,and so on.At the same time,the model integrates the traditional location selection models which are the biggest cover model,the p-center model and the p-median model,and it embodies the principles of fairness and efficiency for the emergency center location.Finally,a computation of an example arising from practice provides satisfactory results.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.61103231,61103230the Innovation Program of Graduate Scientific Research in Institution of Higher Education of Jiangsu Province of China under Grant No.CXZZ110401+1 种基金the Basic Research Foundation of Engineering University of the Chinese People's Armed Police Force under Grant No.WJY201218 the Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China under Grant No.2011JM8012
文摘In this paper, to study rumor spreading, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-removed （SIR） model by introducing the trust mechanism. We derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the SIR model on homogeneous networks and inhomogeneous networks. Then a steady-state analysis is conducted to investigate the critical threshold and the finaJ size of the rumor spreading. We show that the introduction of trust mechanism reduces the final rumor size and the velocity of rumor spreading, but increases the critical thresholds on both networks. Moreover, the trust mechanism not only greatly reduces the maximum rumor influence, but also postpones the rumor terminal time, which provides us with more time to take measures to control the rumor spreading. The theoretical results are confirmed by sufficient numerical simulations.
基金supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Grant Scientific Research (c), No. 24540219 to the first author, JSPS Fellows, No.237213 to the second author, and No. 222176 to the third author)
文摘In this article, we establish the global stability of an endemic equilibrium of multi-group SIR epidemic models, which have not only an exchange of individuals between patches through migration but also cross patch infection between different groups. As a result, we partially generalize the recent result in the article [16].
基金Zhao was supported by a scholarship from the China Scholarship Council,Li was partially supported by NSF of China(11731005)Cao was partially supported by NSF of China(11901264).
文摘This paper is concerned with the spatial propagation of an SIR epidemic model with nonlocal diffusion and free boundaries describing the evolution of a disease.This model can be viewed as a nonlocal version of the free boundary problem studied by Kim et al.(An SIR epidemic model with free boundary.Nonlinear Anal RWA,2013,14:1992-2001).We first prove that this problem has a unique solution defined for all time,and then we give sufficient conditions for the disease vanishing and spreading.Our result shows that the disease will not spread if the basic reproduction number R_(0)<1,or the initial infected area h_(0),expanding ability μ and the initial datum S_(0) are all small enough when 1<R_(0)<1+d/μ_(2)+α.Furthermore,we show that if 1<R_(0)<1+d/μ_(2)+α,the disease will spread when h_(0) is large enough or h_(0) is small but μ is large enough.It is expected that the disease will always spread when R_(0)≥1+d/μ_(2)+α which is different from the local model.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No 10471040）.
文摘In this paper we present a model with spatial heterogeneity based on cellular automata （CA）. In the model we consider the relevant heterogeneity of host （susceptible） mixing and the natural birth rate. We divide the susceptible population into three groups according to the immunity of each individual based on the classical susceptible-infectedremoved （SIR） epidemic models, and consider the spread of an infectious disease transmitted by direct contact among humans and vectors that have not an incubation period to become infectious. We test the local stability and instability of the disease-free equilibrium by the spectrum radii of Jacobian. The simulation shows that the structure of the nearest neighbour size of the cell （or the degree of the scale-free networks） plays a very important role in the spread properties of infectious disease. The positive equilibrium of the infections versus the neighbour size follows the third power law if an endemic equilibrium point exists. Finally, we analyse the feature of the infection waves for the homogeneity and heterogeneous cases respectively.
文摘In this paper,we study the approximate solutions for some of nonlinear Biomathematics models via the e-epidemic SI1I2R model characterizing the spread of viruses in a computer network and SIR childhood disease model.The reduced differential transforms method(RDTM)is one of the interesting methods for finding the approximate solutions for nonlinear problems.We apply the RDTM to discuss the analytic approximate solutions to the SI1I2R model for the spread of virus HCV-subtype and SIR childhood disease model.We discuss the numerical results at some special values of parameters in the approximate solutions.We use the computer software package such as Mathematical to find more iteration when calculating the approximate solutions.Graphical results and discussed quantitatively are presented to illustrate behavior of the obtained approximate solutions.
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41521004]the Gansu Provincial Special Fund Project for Guiding Scientific and Technological Innovation and Development[grant number 2019ZX-06].
文摘At the time of writing,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world.Many epidemic models have been developed to provide references for decision-making by governments and the World Health Organization.To capture and understand the characteristics of the epidemic trend,parameter optimization algorithms are needed to obtain model parameters.In this study,the authors propose using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm(LMA)to identify epidemic models.This algorithm combines the advantage of the Gauss–Newton method and gradient descent method and has improved the stability of parameters.The authors selected four countries with relatively high numbers of confirmed cases to verify the advantages of the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm over the traditional epidemiological model method.The results show that the Statistical-SIR(Statistical-Susceptible–Infected–Recovered)model using LMA can fit the actual curve of the epidemic well,while the epidemic simulation of the traditional model evolves too fast and the peak value is too high to reflect the real situation.
基金Research Partnership Program no.RP-21-09-06 from the Deanship of Scientific Research of Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University(IMSIU).
文摘This paper presents a restricted SIRmathematicalmodel to analyze the evolution of a contagious infectious disease outbreak(COVID-19)using available data.The new model focuses on two main concepts:first,it can present multiple waves of the disease,and second,it analyzes how far an infection can be eradicated with the help of vaccination.The stability analysis of the equilibrium points for the suggested model is initially investigated by identifying the matching equilibrium points and examining their stability.The basic reproduction number is calculated,and the positivity of the solutions is established.Numerical simulations are performed to determine if it is multipeak and evaluate vaccination’s effects.In addition,the proposed model is compared to the literature already published and the effectiveness of vaccination has been recorded.
