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Predicting Short-Term Wind Power Generation at Musalpetti Wind Farm: Model Development and Analysis
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作者 Namal Rathnayake Jeevani Jayasinghe +1 位作者 Rashmi Semasinghe Upaka Rathnayake 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 2025年第5期2287-2305,共19页
In this study,a machine learning-based predictive model was developed for the Musa petti Wind Farm in Sri Lanka to address the need for localized forecasting solutions.Using data on wind speed,air temperature,nacelle ... In this study,a machine learning-based predictive model was developed for the Musa petti Wind Farm in Sri Lanka to address the need for localized forecasting solutions.Using data on wind speed,air temperature,nacelle position,and actual power,lagged features were generated to capture temporal dependencies.Among 24 evaluated models,the ensemble bagging approach achieved the best performance,with R^(2) values of 0.89 at 0 min and 0.75 at 60 min.Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis revealed that while wind speed is the primary driver for short-term predictions,air temperature and nacelle position become more influential at longer forecasting horizons.These findings underscore the reliability of short-term predictions and the potential benefits of integrating hybrid AI and probabilistic models for extended forecasts.Our work contributes a robust and explainable framework to support Sri Lanka’s renewable energy transition,and future research will focus on real-time deployment and uncertainty quantification. 展开更多
关键词 Ensemble bagging model machine learning shap explainability short-term prediction wind power forecasting
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AutoSHARC: Feedback Driven Explainable Intrusion Detection with SHAP-Guided Post-Hoc Retraining for QoS Sensitive IoT Networks
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作者 Muhammad Saad Farooqui Aizaz Ahmad Khattak +4 位作者 Bakri Hossain Awaji Nazik Alturki Noha Alnazzawi Muhammad Hanif Muhammad Shahbaz Khan 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 2025年第12期4395-4439,共45页
Quality of Service(QoS)assurance in programmable IoT and 5G networks is increasingly threatened by cyberattacks such as Distributed Denial of Service(DDoS),spoofing,and botnet intrusions.This paper presents AutoSHARC,... Quality of Service(QoS)assurance in programmable IoT and 5G networks is increasingly threatened by cyberattacks such as Distributed Denial of Service(DDoS),spoofing,and botnet intrusions.This paper presents AutoSHARC,a feedback-driven,explainable intrusion detection framework that integrates Boruta and LightGBM–SHAP feature selection with a lightweight CNN–Attention–GRU classifier.AutoSHARC employs a two-stage feature selection pipeline to identify the most informative features from high-dimensional IoT traffic and reduces 46 features to 30 highly informative ones,followed by post-hoc SHAP-guided retraining to refine feature importance,forming a feedback loopwhere only the most impactful attributes are reused to retrain themodel.This iterative refinement reduces computational overhead,accelerates detection latency,and improves transparency.Evaluated on the CIC IoT 2023 dataset,AutoSHARC achieves 98.98%accuracy,98.9%F1-score,and strong robustness with a Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.98 and Cohen’s Kappa of 0.98.The final model contains only 531,272 trainable parameters with a compact 2 MB size,enabling real-time deployment on resource-constrained IoT nodes.By combining explainable AI with iterative feature refinement,AutoSHARC provides scalable and trustworthy intrusion detection while preserving key QoS indicators such as latency,throughput,and reliability. 展开更多
关键词 QoS preservation intelligent programmable networks intrusion detection IoT security feature selection shap explainability Boruta LightGBM explainable deep learning resource-efficient AI
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An Interpretable Depression Prediction Model for the Elderly Based on ISSA Optimized LightGBM 被引量:1
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作者 Jie Wang Zitong Wang +1 位作者 Jinze Li Yan Peng 《Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology》 EI CAS 2023年第2期168-180,共13页
Depression is one of the most severe mental health illnesses among senior citizens.Aiming at the low accuracy and poor interpretability of traditional prediction models,a novel interpretable depression predictive mode... Depression is one of the most severe mental health illnesses among senior citizens.Aiming at the low accuracy and poor interpretability of traditional prediction models,a novel interpretable depression predictive model for the elderly based on the improved sparrow search algorithm(ISSA)optimized light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM)and Shapley Additive exPlainations(SHAP)is proposed.First of all,to achieve better optimization ability and convergence speed,various strategies are used to improve SSA,including initialization population by Halton sequence,generating elite population by reverse learning and multi-sample learning strategy with linear control of step size.Then,the ISSA is applied to optimize the hyper-parameters of light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM)to improve the prediction accuracy when facing massive high-dimensional data.Finally,SHAP is used to provide global and local interpretation of the prediction model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by a series of comparative experiments based on a real-world dataset. 展开更多
关键词 the elderly depression prediction improved sparrow search algorithm(ISSA) light gra-dient boosting machine(LightGBM) shapley Additive exPlainations(shap)
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