Mining-related seismicity poses significant challenges in underground coal mining due to its complex rupture mechanisms and associated hazards.To bridge gaps in understanding these intricate processes,this study emplo...Mining-related seismicity poses significant challenges in underground coal mining due to its complex rupture mechanisms and associated hazards.To bridge gaps in understanding these intricate processes,this study employed a multi-local seismic monitoring network,integrating both in-mine and local instruments at overlapping length scales.We specifically focused on a damaging local magnitude(ML)2.6 event and its aftershocks that occurred on 10 September 2022 in the vicinity of the 3308 working face of the Yangcheng coal mine in Shandong Province,China.Moment tensor(MT)inversion revealed a complex cascading rupture mechanism:an initial moment magnitude(M_(w))2.2 normal fault slip along the DF60 fault in an ESEeWNW direction,transitioning to a M_(w)3.0 event as the FD24 and DF60 faults unclamped.The scale-independent self-similarity and stress heterogeneity of mining-related seismicity were investigated through source parameter calculations,providing valuable insights into the driving mechanism of these seismic sequences.The in-mine network,constrained by its low dynamic changes,captured only the nucleation phase of the DF60 fault.Furthermore,standard decomposition of the MT solution from the seismic network proved inadequate for accurately identifying the complex nature of the rupture.To enhance safety and risk management in mining environments,we examined the implications of source reactivation within the cluster area post-stress-adjustment.This comprehensive multiscale analysis offers crucial insights into the complex rupture mechanisms and hazards associated with mining-related seismicity.The results underscore the importance of continuous multi-local network monitoring and advanced analytical techniques for improved disaster assessment and risk mitigation in mining operations.展开更多
Source properties and stress fields are critical to understand fundamental mechanisms for fluid-induced earthquakes.In this study,we identify the focal mechanism solutions(FMSs)of 360 earthquakes with local magnitude ...Source properties and stress fields are critical to understand fundamental mechanisms for fluid-induced earthquakes.In this study,we identify the focal mechanism solutions(FMSs)of 360 earthquakes with local magnitude M_(L)≥1.5 in the Changning shale gas field from January 2016 to May 2017 by fitting three-component waveforms.We then constrain the directions of the maximum horizontal stress(σ_(H_(max)))for four dense earthquake clusters using the stress tensor inversion method.The stress drops of 121 earthquakes with M_(L)≥1.5 are calculated using the spectral ratio method.We examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of stress field,and discuss the cause of non-double-couple(non-DC)components in seismicity clusters.Following the Mohr-Coulomb criterion,we estimate the fluid overpressure thresholds from FMS for different seismic clusters,providing insights into potential physical mechanisms for induced seismicity.The FMS results indicate that shallow reverse earthquakes,with steep dip angles,characterize most events.The source mechanisms of earthquakes with M_(L)≥1.5 are dominated by DC components(>70%),but several earthquakes with M_(L)>3.0 and the microseismic events nearby during injection period display significant non-DC components(>30%).Stress inversion results reveal that the σ_(H_(max)) direction ranges from 120°to 128°.Stress drops of earthquakes range between 0.10 and 64.49 MPa,with high values occurring on reverse faults situated at a greater distance from the shale layer,accompanied by a moderate rotation(≤25°)in the trend of σ_(H_(max)).The seismic clusters close to the shale layer exhibit low fluid overpressure thresholds,prone to being triggered by high pore-pressure fluid.The integrated results suggest that the diffusion of high pore pressures is likely to be the primary factor for observed earthquakes.The present results are expected to offer valuable insights into the origin of anomalous seismicity near the shale gas sites.展开更多
Discrete fracture network(DFN)commonly existing in natural rock masses plays an important role in geological complexity which can influence rock fracturing behaviour during fluid injection.This paper simulated the hyd...Discrete fracture network(DFN)commonly existing in natural rock masses plays an important role in geological complexity which can influence rock fracturing behaviour during fluid injection.This paper simulated the hydraulic fracturing process in lab-scale coal samples with DFNs and the induced seismic activities by the discrete element method(DEM).The effects of DFNs on hydraulic fracturing,induced seismicity and elastic property changes have been concluded.Denser DFNs can comprehensively decrease the peak injection pressure and injection duration.The proportion of strong seismic events increases first and then decreases with increasing DFN density.In addition,the relative modulus of the rock mass is derived innovatively from breakdown pressure,breakdown fracture length and the related initiation time.Increasing DFN densities among large(35–60 degrees)and small(0–30 degrees)fracture dip angles show opposite evolution trends in relative modulus.The transitional point(dip angle)for the opposite trends is also proportionally affected by the friction angle of the rock mass.The modelling results have much practical meaning to infer the density and geometry of pre-existing fractures and the elastic property of rock mass in the field,simply based on the hydraulic fracturing and induced seismicity monitoring data.展开更多
The widespread variation of focal depths and fault plane solutions observed in the Hindukush region depicts continuous deformation along the Indian-Eurasian collision zone.For period of twelve years i.e.from 2010 to 2...The widespread variation of focal depths and fault plane solutions observed in the Hindukush region depicts continuous deformation along the Indian-Eurasian collision zone.For period of twelve years i.e.from 2010 to 2022,a total of 89 intermediate-depth earthquakes of magnitude(Mw)≥5.5 of the Hindukush Region were considered,relocated using both regional and tele seismic data with 90 per cent confidence limits of less than 20 km.Two distinct seismic activity clusters:First one at a deeper depth and second at a shallower depth having different P-axes were observed that verifies the internal structure and geometry of Hindukush zone as suggested in previous studies.Beneath the Hindukush collision zone,there exists a complex pattern of deformation,arising from a combination of compression,tension,shearing and necking states due to an unusual and a rare case of subduction that is not from oceanic plate.The Hindukush seismic zone extends from 70 to 300 km depth and mostly strikes east-west and then turns northeast.The relocated seismicity by merging data of seismic network close to Hindukush along with international data shows that the Hindukush zone may be divided vertically into upper and lower slabs separated by a gap at about 150 km depth at which strike and dip directions change sharply with significant structural changes.Seismicity rate is higher in the lower part of Hindukush,having large magnitude events in a small volume below 180 km forming complex pattern of source mechanisms.Contrary in upper part seismicity rate is lower and scattered.The Global CMT(Global Centroid-Moment-Tensor Project)source mechanisms of intermediate depth earthquakes have a systematic pattern of reverse faulting with the vertical T-axes,while shallow events do not have such pattern.The vertical T-axes of the intermediate-depth events may be attributed to negative buoyancy caused by subduction of the cold and denser slab.展开更多
The occurrence time and magnitude of injection-induced seismicity are influenced by engineering factors,such as wellhead pressure,injection location,injection volume,and injection rate.Understanding the relationship b...The occurrence time and magnitude of injection-induced seismicity are influenced by engineering factors,such as wellhead pressure,injection location,injection volume,and injection rate.Understanding the relationship between injection operations and seismic magnitude is of great significance for optimizing industrial production and reducing earthquake disasters.Numerical simulation of hydromechanical coupling is a crucial method for studying injection-induced seismicity.However,few studies have explored the risk management measures for injection-induced seismicity from the perspective of engineering.How seismic magnitudes can be reduced through reasonable adjustments to injection operations in engineering remains unclear.Therefore,in this study,a 3D hydro-mechanical coupling model involving multiple faults and injection wells was established based on the geological background and well location of Fox Creek,Canada.Different injection schemes under multi-well and multi-fault conditions were studied,and a traffic light system was used to simulate and control the magnitudes under a multi-well injection scheme.Specifically,we simulated injection scenarios involving up to three wells and analyzed the response of five faults.We compared the maximum moment magnitude of different scenarios by controlling the same injection volume.The results revealed the effect and advantage of the multi-well scheme in reducing seismic magnitude.To reduce the risk of induced seismicity,utilizing far-fault operational wells to compensate for the effects of near-fault operational wells proves to be an efficient and cost-effective method,with potential for wide practical applications.展开更多
Triggered seismicity is a key hazard where fluids are injected or withdrawn from the subsurface and may impact permeability. Understanding the mechanisms that control fluid injection-triggered seismicity allows its mi...Triggered seismicity is a key hazard where fluids are injected or withdrawn from the subsurface and may impact permeability. Understanding the mechanisms that control fluid injection-triggered seismicity allows its mitigation. Key controls on seismicity are defined in terms of fault and fracture strength, second-order frictional response and stability, and competing fluid-driven mechanisms for arrest. We desire to constrain maximum event magnitudes in triggered earthquakes by relating pre-existing critical stresses to fluid injection volume to explain why some recorded events are significantly larger than anticipated seismic moment thresholds. This formalism is consistent with several uncharacteristically large fluid injection-triggered earthquakes. Such methods of reactivating fractures and faults by hydraulic stimulation in shear or tensile fracturing are routinely used to create permeability in the subsurface. Microearthquakes (MEQs) generated by such stimulations can be used to diagnose permeability evolution. Although high-fidelity data sets are scarce, the EGS-Collab and Utah FORGE hydraulic stimulation field demonstration projects provide high-fidelity data sets that concurrently track permeability evolution and triggered seismicity. Machine learning deciphers the principal features of MEQs and the resulting permeability evolution that best track permeability changes – with transfer learning methods allowing robust predictions across multiple eological settings. Changes in permeability at reactivated fractures in both shear and extensional modes suggest that permeability change (Δk) scales with the seismic moment (M) of individual MEQs as Δk∝M. This scaling relation is exact at early times but degrades with successive MEQs, but provides a method for characterizing crustal permeability evolution using MEQs, alone. Importantly, we quantify for the first time the role of prestress in defining the elevated magnitude and seismic moment of fluid injection-triggered events, and demonstrate that such MEQs can also be used as diagnostic in quantifying permeability evolution in the crust.展开更多
The Chilean subduction zone is one of the most seismically active regions globally,characterized by extensive intermediatedepth seismicity in the slab.In this study,we construct a new earthquake catalog for northern C...The Chilean subduction zone is one of the most seismically active regions globally,characterized by extensive intermediatedepth seismicity in the slab.In this study,we construct a new earthquake catalog for northern Chile using seismic waveforms assembled for the period of 2014-2019,from which 320,070 P-wave and 232,907 S-wave first arrivals are obtained for 25,763 earthquakes.Grid search location method NonLinLoc is applied to determine initial earthquake locations and double-difference location method is used to improve relative event locations.The distribution of earthquakes exhibits distinct patterns to the north and south of 21°S.There are many more earthquakes deeper than~150 km to the south of 21°S,while relatively fewer to the north.The intraslab earthquakes shallower than~80 km generally reveal a distinct double seismic zone,and the gap between the two seismic planes disappears at a depth of approximately~80 km,followed by a concentration of seismicity in the depth range of~80-150 km.In the deeper slab,there exist several seismicity clusters with distinct earthquake activities down to~300 km.These characteristics shown in slab seismicity are likely caused by different mechanisms and can be helpful for understanding the subduction process.展开更多
The Main Himalayan Thrust(MHT),where the 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha earthquake occurred,features the most seismicity of any structure in Nepal.The structural complexity of the MHT makes it difficult to obtain a definitive inte...The Main Himalayan Thrust(MHT),where the 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha earthquake occurred,features the most seismicity of any structure in Nepal.The structural complexity of the MHT makes it difficult to obtain a definitive interpretation of deep seismogenic structures.The application of new methods and data in this region is necessary to enhance local seismic hazard analyses.In this study,we used a well-designed machine learning-based earthquake location workflow(LOC-FLOW),which incorporates machine learning phase picking,phase association,absolute location,and double-difference relative location,to process seismic data collected by the Hi-CLIMB and NAMASTE seismic networks.We built a high-precision earthquake catalog of both the quiet-period and aftershock seismicity in this region.The seismicity distribution suggests that the quietperiod seismicity(388 events)was controlled by a mid-crustal ramp and the aftershock seismicity(12,669 events)was controlled by several geological structures of the MHT.The higher-level detail of the catalogs derived from this machine learning method reveal clearer structural characteristics,showing how the flat-ramp geometry and a possible duplex structure affect the depth distribution of the seismic events,and how a tear fault changes this distribution along strike.展开更多
Two long-term slow slip events(SSEs) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, were identified by Li SS et al.(2016). The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years with M_(w) ~7.8 and had an average slip rate of ~82 mm/year. The latter ...Two long-term slow slip events(SSEs) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, were identified by Li SS et al.(2016). The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years with M_(w) ~7.8 and had an average slip rate of ~82 mm/year. The latter SSE, occurring in a similar area, lasted approximately 2 years with M_(w) ~7.2 and an average slip rate of ~91 mm/year. To test whether these SSEs triggered earthquakes near the slow slip area, we calculated the Coulomb stressing rate changes on receiver faults by using two fault geometry definitions: nodal planes of focal mechanism solutions of past earthquakes, and optimally oriented fault planes. Regions in the shallow slab(30–60 km) that experienced a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate due to slip by the SSEs showed an increase in seismicity rates during SSE periods. No correlation was found in the volumes that underwent a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate during the SSE within the crust and the intermediate slab. We modeled variations in seismicity rates by using a combination of the Coulomb stress transfer model and the framework of rate-and-state friction. Our model indicated that the SSEs increased the Coulomb stress changes on adjacent faults,thereby increasing the seismicity rates even though the ratio of the SSE stressing rate to the background stressing rate was small. Each long-term SSE in Alaska brought the megathrust updip of the SSE areas closer to failure by up to 0.1–0.15 MPa. The volumes of significant Coulomb stress changes caused by the Upper and Lower Cook Inlet SSEs did not overlap.展开更多
Given the complexity of earthquake forecast and the current limitations in the application of artificial intelligence(AI),we propose a conceptual framework for a novel AI system,HuiShangGPT,intended to act as an exper...Given the complexity of earthquake forecast and the current limitations in the application of artificial intelligence(AI),we propose a conceptual framework for a novel AI system,HuiShangGPT,intended to act as an expert in discussion on the trend of seismicity.This system,still in the conceptual stage,aims to integrate AI into the empirical approaches traditionally used in earthquake forecasting.The proposed HuiShangGPT system would not only assist in the comprehensive analysis of seismic data but also contribute to the expert panel discussions,enhancing the decision-making process.We outline the envisioned functionalities and potential benefits of such a system,while acknowledging the technical and practical challenges that need to be addressed for its future implementation.展开更多
A database for the seismicity of the Tehri region (29.5˚N - 31.5˚N and 77.5˚E - 79.5˚E) from November 1, 1853, to March 31, 1989, has been prepared using a Compatible Personal Computer System. The seismicity database ...A database for the seismicity of the Tehri region (29.5˚N - 31.5˚N and 77.5˚E - 79.5˚E) from November 1, 1853, to March 31, 1989, has been prepared using a Compatible Personal Computer System. The seismicity database is complete for events with mb ≥ 4.5 only since 1963. It is inferred that the general seismicity of the area is considerably low, which is associated with four main tectonic features identified based on the spatial distribution of events in the area. Earthquakes in the Tehri area is of shallow focus, and maximum seismic activity is confined in the region beyond 60 km east and northwest of Tehri. The cumulative Number of Events as a Function of Time (CNET) for the period from 1963 to 1988 has indicated that precursory swarms do not precede the medium-sized earthquakes of the Tehri area. However, the CNET curves for total events and those with mb ≥ 4.6 have indicated a sharp 2-fold seismicity rate increase from 1986 compared to the preceding period. The October 20, 1991 (IST) earthquake of mb = 6.5 of Uttarkashi is believed to be associated with this seismicity rate change. The continuous increasing trend of the CNET curve before 1986 has been attributed to the detection changes.展开更多
Earthquakes triggered by dynamic disturbances have been confirmed by numerous observations and experiments.In the past several decades,earthquake triggering has attracted increasing attention of scholars in relation t...Earthquakes triggered by dynamic disturbances have been confirmed by numerous observations and experiments.In the past several decades,earthquake triggering has attracted increasing attention of scholars in relation to exploring the mechanism of earthquake triggering,earthquake prediction,and the desire to use the mechanism of earthquake triggering to reduce,prevent,or trigger earthquakes.Natural earthquakes and large‐scale explosions are the most common sources of dynamic disturbances that trigger earthquakes.In the past several decades,some models have been developed,including static,dynamic,quasi‐static,and other models.Some reviews have been published,but explosiontriggered seismicity was not included.In recent years,some new results on earthquake triggering have emerged.Therefore,this paper presents a new review to reflect the new results and include the content of explosion‐triggered earthquakes for the reference of scholars in this area.Instead of a complete review of the relevant literature,this paper primarily focuses on the main aspects of dynamic earthquake triggering on a tectonic scale and makes some suggestions on issues that need to be resolved in this area in the future.展开更多
Monitoring seismicity in real time provides significant benefits for timely earthquake warning and analyses.In this study,we propose an automatic workflow based on machine learning(ML)to monitor seismicity in the sout...Monitoring seismicity in real time provides significant benefits for timely earthquake warning and analyses.In this study,we propose an automatic workflow based on machine learning(ML)to monitor seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin of China.This workflow includes coherent event detection,phase picking,and earthquake location using three-component data from a seismic network.By combining Phase Net,we develop an ML-based earthquake location model called Phase Loc,to conduct real-time monitoring of the local seismicity.The approach allows us to use synthetic samples covering the entire study area to train Phase Loc,addressing the problems of insufficient data samples,imbalanced data distribution,and unreliable labels when training with observed data.We apply the trained model to observed data recorded in the southern Sichuan Basin,China,between September 2018 and March 2019.The results show that the average differences in latitude,longitude,and depth are 5.7 km,6.1 km,and 2 km,respectively,compared to the reference catalog.Phase Loc combines all available phase information to make fast and reliable predictions,even if only a few phases are detected and picked.The proposed workflow may help real-time seismic monitoring in other regions as well.展开更多
Injection-induced seismicity has been a focus of industry for decades as it poses great challenges to the associated risk mitigation and hazard assessment.The response surface methodology is integrated into the geo-me...Injection-induced seismicity has been a focus of industry for decades as it poses great challenges to the associated risk mitigation and hazard assessment.The response surface methodology is integrated into the geo-mechanical model to analyze the effects of multiple factors on induced seismicity during the post shut-in period.We investigate the roles of poroelastic stress and pore pressure diffusion and examine the differences in the controlling mechanism between fault damage zones and the fault core.A sensitivity analysis is conducted to rank the selected factors,followed by a Box‒Behnken design to form response surfaces and formulate prediction models for the Coulomb stress and its components.Reservoir properties significantly affect the potentials of induced seismicity in the fault by changing pore pressure diffusion,which can be influenced by other factors to varying degrees.Coulomb stress is greater in pressurized damage zones than in fault cores,and the seismicity rate exhibits a consistent variation.Poroelastic stress plays a similar role to pore pressure diffusion in the stability of the fault within the pressurized damage zones.However,pore pressure diffusion dominates in the fault core due to the low rigidity,which limits the accumulation of elastic energy caused by poroelastic coupling.The slip along the fault core is a critical issue to consider.The potential for induced seismicity is reduced in the right damage zones as the pore pressure diffusion is blocked by the low-permeability fault core.However,poroelastic stressing still occurs,and in deep basements,the poroelastic effect is dominant even without a direct increase in pore pressure.The findings in this study reveal the fundamental mechanisms behind injection-induced seismicity and provide guidance for optimizing injection schemes in specific situations.展开更多
There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis.To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismi...There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis.To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismicity,we built a high-precision earthquake catalog for 2014 and relocated 2275 events using recently developed methods for event picking and catalog construction.Seismicity occurred in the southeastern part of the reservoir,with the preferred fault plane orientation aligned along the Heyuan Fault.The total seismic energy peaked when the typhoon passed through the reservoir,and seismicity correlated with typhoon energy.In contrast,a limited seismic response was observed during the later Typhoon Rammasun.Combining data regarding the water level in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir and seismicity frequency changes in the Taiwan region during these two typhoon events,we suggest that typhoon activity may increase microseism energy by impacting fault stability around the Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Whether a fault can be activated also depends on how close the stress accumulation is to its failure point.展开更多
The left-lateral Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF) system is the northern boundary of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, separating the Tarim Basin and the Qaidam Basin. The middle section of ATF has not recorded any large earthquakes s...The left-lateral Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF) system is the northern boundary of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, separating the Tarim Basin and the Qaidam Basin. The middle section of ATF has not recorded any large earthquakes since1598 AD, so the potential seismic hazard is unclear. We develope an earthquake catalog using continuous waveform data recorded by the Tarim-Altyn-Qaidam dense nodal seismic array from September 17 to November23, 2021 in the middle section of ATF. With the machine learning-based picker, phase association, location, match and locate workflow, we detecte 233 earthquakes with M_L-1–3, far more than 6 earthquakes in the routine catalog. Combining with focal mechanism solutions and the local fault structure, we find that seismic events are clustered along the ATF with strike-slip focal mechanisms and on the southern secondary faults with thrusting focal mechanisms. This overall seismic activity in the middle section of the ATF might be due to the northeastward transpressional motion of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau block at the western margin of the Qaidam Basin.展开更多
Evaluating the physical mechanisms that link hydraulic fracturing(HF) operations to induced earthquakes and the anticipated form of the resulting events is significant in informing subsurface fluid injection operation...Evaluating the physical mechanisms that link hydraulic fracturing(HF) operations to induced earthquakes and the anticipated form of the resulting events is significant in informing subsurface fluid injection operations. Current understanding supports the overriding role of the effective stress magnitude in triggering earthquakes, while the impact of change rate of effective stress has not been systematically addressed. In this work, a modified critical stiffness was brought up to investigate the likelihood, impact,and mitigation of induced seismicity during and after hydraulic fracturing by developing a poroelastic model based on rate-and-state fraction law and linear stability analysis. In the new criterion, the change rate of effective stress was considered a key variable to explore the evolution of this criterion and hence the likelihood of instability slip of fault. A coupled fluid flow-deformation model was used to represent the entire hydraulic fracturing process in COMSOL Multiphysics. The possibility of triggering an earthquake throughout the entire hydraulic fracturing process, from fracturing to cessation, was investigated considering different fault locations, orientations, and positions along the fault. The competition between the effects of the magnitude and change rate of effective stress was notable at each fracturing stage. The effective stress magnitude is a significant controlling factor during fracturing events, with the change rate dominating when fracturing is suddenly started or stopped. Instability dominates when the magnitude of the effective stress increases(constant injection at each fracturing stage) and the change rate of effective stress decreases(the injection process is suddenly stopped). Fracturing with a high injection rate, a fault adjacent to the hydraulic fracturing location and the position of the junction between the reservoir and fault are important to reduce the Coulomb failure stress(CFS) and enhance the critical stiffness as the significant disturbance of stresses at these positions in the coupled process. Therefore,notable attention should be given to the injection rate during fracturing, fault position, and position along faults as important considerations to help reduce the potential for induced seismicity. Our model was verified and confirmed using the case of the Longmaxi Formation in the Sichuan Basin, China, in which the reported microseismic data were correlated with high critical stiffness values. This work supplies new thoughts of the seismic risk associated with HF engineering.展开更多
Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied....Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of the region-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake. In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study, to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify the quiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed two significant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12);the other anomaly was associated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observed in the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding background rate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescence surrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method for the earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-tofailure technique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impending earthquakes.展开更多
Evaluation of the seismicity of a region depends on records of earthquakes.This article assesses the microseismicity of Tehran region,bounded by the coordinates 34.43°-36.87°N and 49.07°-53.13°E.Th...Evaluation of the seismicity of a region depends on records of earthquakes.This article assesses the microseismicity of Tehran region,bounded by the coordinates 34.43°-36.87°N and 49.07°-53.13°E.This was investigated by the Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization(TDMMO)network from 2004 to 2010.The main purpose of this study was to substantiate the current tectonic activity of the region.We checked whether the observed faults in the region are active or not.Some active trends were found with the strongest activity in the eastern part of the region,especially associated with the North Tehran fault.In addition,records exist of strong historical earthquakes in this zone.展开更多
A comprehensive dataset from 594 fracturing wells throughout the Duvernay Formation near Fox Creek, Alberta, is collected to quantify the influences of geological, geomechanical, and operational features on the distri...A comprehensive dataset from 594 fracturing wells throughout the Duvernay Formation near Fox Creek, Alberta, is collected to quantify the influences of geological, geomechanical, and operational features on the distribution and magnitude of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity. An integrated machine learning-based investigation is conducted to systematically evaluate multiple factors that contribute to induced seismicity. Feature importance indicates that a distance to fault, a distance to basement, minimum principal stress, cumulative fluid injection, initial formation pressure, and the number of fracturing stages are among significant model predictors. Our seismicity prediction map matches the observed spatial seismicity, and the prediction model successfully guides the fracturing job size of a new well to reduce seismicity risks. This study can apply to mitigating potential seismicity risks in other seismicity-frequent regions.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51574225)Shandong Energy Group(Grant No.SNKJ2022BJ03-R28)for Caiping Lu+1 种基金the Research Team on MonitoringActivity Mechanisms of Unnatural Earthquakes of Shandong Earthquake Agency(Grant No.TD202301)for Chengyu Liu.
文摘Mining-related seismicity poses significant challenges in underground coal mining due to its complex rupture mechanisms and associated hazards.To bridge gaps in understanding these intricate processes,this study employed a multi-local seismic monitoring network,integrating both in-mine and local instruments at overlapping length scales.We specifically focused on a damaging local magnitude(ML)2.6 event and its aftershocks that occurred on 10 September 2022 in the vicinity of the 3308 working face of the Yangcheng coal mine in Shandong Province,China.Moment tensor(MT)inversion revealed a complex cascading rupture mechanism:an initial moment magnitude(M_(w))2.2 normal fault slip along the DF60 fault in an ESEeWNW direction,transitioning to a M_(w)3.0 event as the FD24 and DF60 faults unclamped.The scale-independent self-similarity and stress heterogeneity of mining-related seismicity were investigated through source parameter calculations,providing valuable insights into the driving mechanism of these seismic sequences.The in-mine network,constrained by its low dynamic changes,captured only the nucleation phase of the DF60 fault.Furthermore,standard decomposition of the MT solution from the seismic network proved inadequate for accurately identifying the complex nature of the rupture.To enhance safety and risk management in mining environments,we examined the implications of source reactivation within the cluster area post-stress-adjustment.This comprehensive multiscale analysis offers crucial insights into the complex rupture mechanisms and hazards associated with mining-related seismicity.The results underscore the importance of continuous multi-local network monitoring and advanced analytical techniques for improved disaster assessment and risk mitigation in mining operations.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U20A20266 and 12302503)Scientific and technological research projects in Sichuan province(Grant No.2024NSFSC0973).
文摘Source properties and stress fields are critical to understand fundamental mechanisms for fluid-induced earthquakes.In this study,we identify the focal mechanism solutions(FMSs)of 360 earthquakes with local magnitude M_(L)≥1.5 in the Changning shale gas field from January 2016 to May 2017 by fitting three-component waveforms.We then constrain the directions of the maximum horizontal stress(σ_(H_(max)))for four dense earthquake clusters using the stress tensor inversion method.The stress drops of 121 earthquakes with M_(L)≥1.5 are calculated using the spectral ratio method.We examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of stress field,and discuss the cause of non-double-couple(non-DC)components in seismicity clusters.Following the Mohr-Coulomb criterion,we estimate the fluid overpressure thresholds from FMS for different seismic clusters,providing insights into potential physical mechanisms for induced seismicity.The FMS results indicate that shallow reverse earthquakes,with steep dip angles,characterize most events.The source mechanisms of earthquakes with M_(L)≥1.5 are dominated by DC components(>70%),but several earthquakes with M_(L)>3.0 and the microseismic events nearby during injection period display significant non-DC components(>30%).Stress inversion results reveal that the σ_(H_(max)) direction ranges from 120°to 128°.Stress drops of earthquakes range between 0.10 and 64.49 MPa,with high values occurring on reverse faults situated at a greater distance from the shale layer,accompanied by a moderate rotation(≤25°)in the trend of σ_(H_(max)).The seismic clusters close to the shale layer exhibit low fluid overpressure thresholds,prone to being triggered by high pore-pressure fluid.The integrated results suggest that the diffusion of high pore pressures is likely to be the primary factor for observed earthquakes.The present results are expected to offer valuable insights into the origin of anomalous seismicity near the shale gas sites.
基金Australian Research Council Linkage Program(LP200301404)for sponsoring this researchthe financial support provided by the State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection(Chengdu University of Technology,SKLGP2021K002)National Natural Science Foundation of China(52374101,32111530138).
文摘Discrete fracture network(DFN)commonly existing in natural rock masses plays an important role in geological complexity which can influence rock fracturing behaviour during fluid injection.This paper simulated the hydraulic fracturing process in lab-scale coal samples with DFNs and the induced seismic activities by the discrete element method(DEM).The effects of DFNs on hydraulic fracturing,induced seismicity and elastic property changes have been concluded.Denser DFNs can comprehensively decrease the peak injection pressure and injection duration.The proportion of strong seismic events increases first and then decreases with increasing DFN density.In addition,the relative modulus of the rock mass is derived innovatively from breakdown pressure,breakdown fracture length and the related initiation time.Increasing DFN densities among large(35–60 degrees)and small(0–30 degrees)fracture dip angles show opposite evolution trends in relative modulus.The transitional point(dip angle)for the opposite trends is also proportionally affected by the friction angle of the rock mass.The modelling results have much practical meaning to infer the density and geometry of pre-existing fractures and the elastic property of rock mass in the field,simply based on the hydraulic fracturing and induced seismicity monitoring data.
文摘The widespread variation of focal depths and fault plane solutions observed in the Hindukush region depicts continuous deformation along the Indian-Eurasian collision zone.For period of twelve years i.e.from 2010 to 2022,a total of 89 intermediate-depth earthquakes of magnitude(Mw)≥5.5 of the Hindukush Region were considered,relocated using both regional and tele seismic data with 90 per cent confidence limits of less than 20 km.Two distinct seismic activity clusters:First one at a deeper depth and second at a shallower depth having different P-axes were observed that verifies the internal structure and geometry of Hindukush zone as suggested in previous studies.Beneath the Hindukush collision zone,there exists a complex pattern of deformation,arising from a combination of compression,tension,shearing and necking states due to an unusual and a rare case of subduction that is not from oceanic plate.The Hindukush seismic zone extends from 70 to 300 km depth and mostly strikes east-west and then turns northeast.The relocated seismicity by merging data of seismic network close to Hindukush along with international data shows that the Hindukush zone may be divided vertically into upper and lower slabs separated by a gap at about 150 km depth at which strike and dip directions change sharply with significant structural changes.Seismicity rate is higher in the lower part of Hindukush,having large magnitude events in a small volume below 180 km forming complex pattern of source mechanisms.Contrary in upper part seismicity rate is lower and scattered.The Global CMT(Global Centroid-Moment-Tensor Project)source mechanisms of intermediate depth earthquakes have a systematic pattern of reverse faulting with the vertical T-axes,while shallow events do not have such pattern.The vertical T-axes of the intermediate-depth events may be attributed to negative buoyancy caused by subduction of the cold and denser slab.
基金funded by the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U23A20671)the Major Project of Inner Mongolia Science and Technology(2021ZD0034)the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering(No.Z021003)。
文摘The occurrence time and magnitude of injection-induced seismicity are influenced by engineering factors,such as wellhead pressure,injection location,injection volume,and injection rate.Understanding the relationship between injection operations and seismic magnitude is of great significance for optimizing industrial production and reducing earthquake disasters.Numerical simulation of hydromechanical coupling is a crucial method for studying injection-induced seismicity.However,few studies have explored the risk management measures for injection-induced seismicity from the perspective of engineering.How seismic magnitudes can be reduced through reasonable adjustments to injection operations in engineering remains unclear.Therefore,in this study,a 3D hydro-mechanical coupling model involving multiple faults and injection wells was established based on the geological background and well location of Fox Creek,Canada.Different injection schemes under multi-well and multi-fault conditions were studied,and a traffic light system was used to simulate and control the magnitudes under a multi-well injection scheme.Specifically,we simulated injection scenarios involving up to three wells and analyzed the response of five faults.We compared the maximum moment magnitude of different scenarios by controlling the same injection volume.The results revealed the effect and advantage of the multi-well scheme in reducing seismic magnitude.To reduce the risk of induced seismicity,utilizing far-fault operational wells to compensate for the effects of near-fault operational wells proves to be an efficient and cost-effective method,with potential for wide practical applications.
基金Derek Elsworth acknowledges the support from a Gledden Visiting Fellowship from the Institute of Advanced Studies at the University of Western Australia,Australia,and the G.Albert Shoemaker Endowment at Pennsylvania State University,USA.
文摘Triggered seismicity is a key hazard where fluids are injected or withdrawn from the subsurface and may impact permeability. Understanding the mechanisms that control fluid injection-triggered seismicity allows its mitigation. Key controls on seismicity are defined in terms of fault and fracture strength, second-order frictional response and stability, and competing fluid-driven mechanisms for arrest. We desire to constrain maximum event magnitudes in triggered earthquakes by relating pre-existing critical stresses to fluid injection volume to explain why some recorded events are significantly larger than anticipated seismic moment thresholds. This formalism is consistent with several uncharacteristically large fluid injection-triggered earthquakes. Such methods of reactivating fractures and faults by hydraulic stimulation in shear or tensile fracturing are routinely used to create permeability in the subsurface. Microearthquakes (MEQs) generated by such stimulations can be used to diagnose permeability evolution. Although high-fidelity data sets are scarce, the EGS-Collab and Utah FORGE hydraulic stimulation field demonstration projects provide high-fidelity data sets that concurrently track permeability evolution and triggered seismicity. Machine learning deciphers the principal features of MEQs and the resulting permeability evolution that best track permeability changes – with transfer learning methods allowing robust predictions across multiple eological settings. Changes in permeability at reactivated fractures in both shear and extensional modes suggest that permeability change (Δk) scales with the seismic moment (M) of individual MEQs as Δk∝M. This scaling relation is exact at early times but degrades with successive MEQs, but provides a method for characterizing crustal permeability evolution using MEQs, alone. Importantly, we quantify for the first time the role of prestress in defining the elevated magnitude and seismic moment of fluid injection-triggered events, and demonstrate that such MEQs can also be used as diagnostic in quantifying permeability evolution in the crust.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41861134009)the PIA ANID(AFB180004)the ANID(PCI PII-180003).
文摘The Chilean subduction zone is one of the most seismically active regions globally,characterized by extensive intermediatedepth seismicity in the slab.In this study,we construct a new earthquake catalog for northern Chile using seismic waveforms assembled for the period of 2014-2019,from which 320,070 P-wave and 232,907 S-wave first arrivals are obtained for 25,763 earthquakes.Grid search location method NonLinLoc is applied to determine initial earthquake locations and double-difference location method is used to improve relative event locations.The distribution of earthquakes exhibits distinct patterns to the north and south of 21°S.There are many more earthquakes deeper than~150 km to the south of 21°S,while relatively fewer to the north.The intraslab earthquakes shallower than~80 km generally reveal a distinct double seismic zone,and the gap between the two seismic planes disappears at a depth of approximately~80 km,followed by a concentration of seismicity in the depth range of~80-150 km.In the deeper slab,there exist several seismicity clusters with distinct earthquake activities down to~300 km.These characteristics shown in slab seismicity are likely caused by different mechanisms and can be helpful for understanding the subduction process.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFF0800601)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42174069,U1939204).
文摘The Main Himalayan Thrust(MHT),where the 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha earthquake occurred,features the most seismicity of any structure in Nepal.The structural complexity of the MHT makes it difficult to obtain a definitive interpretation of deep seismogenic structures.The application of new methods and data in this region is necessary to enhance local seismic hazard analyses.In this study,we used a well-designed machine learning-based earthquake location workflow(LOC-FLOW),which incorporates machine learning phase picking,phase association,absolute location,and double-difference relative location,to process seismic data collected by the Hi-CLIMB and NAMASTE seismic networks.We built a high-precision earthquake catalog of both the quiet-period and aftershock seismicity in this region.The seismicity distribution suggests that the quietperiod seismicity(388 events)was controlled by a mid-crustal ramp and the aftershock seismicity(12,669 events)was controlled by several geological structures of the MHT.The higher-level detail of the catalogs derived from this machine learning method reveal clearer structural characteristics,showing how the flat-ramp geometry and a possible duplex structure affect the depth distribution of the seismic events,and how a tear fault changes this distribution along strike.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42104001)。
文摘Two long-term slow slip events(SSEs) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, were identified by Li SS et al.(2016). The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years with M_(w) ~7.8 and had an average slip rate of ~82 mm/year. The latter SSE, occurring in a similar area, lasted approximately 2 years with M_(w) ~7.2 and an average slip rate of ~91 mm/year. To test whether these SSEs triggered earthquakes near the slow slip area, we calculated the Coulomb stressing rate changes on receiver faults by using two fault geometry definitions: nodal planes of focal mechanism solutions of past earthquakes, and optimally oriented fault planes. Regions in the shallow slab(30–60 km) that experienced a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate due to slip by the SSEs showed an increase in seismicity rates during SSE periods. No correlation was found in the volumes that underwent a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate during the SSE within the crust and the intermediate slab. We modeled variations in seismicity rates by using a combination of the Coulomb stress transfer model and the framework of rate-and-state friction. Our model indicated that the SSEs increased the Coulomb stress changes on adjacent faults,thereby increasing the seismicity rates even though the ratio of the SSE stressing rate to the background stressing rate was small. Each long-term SSE in Alaska brought the megathrust updip of the SSE areas closer to failure by up to 0.1–0.15 MPa. The volumes of significant Coulomb stress changes caused by the Upper and Lower Cook Inlet SSEs did not overlap.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U2039207).
文摘Given the complexity of earthquake forecast and the current limitations in the application of artificial intelligence(AI),we propose a conceptual framework for a novel AI system,HuiShangGPT,intended to act as an expert in discussion on the trend of seismicity.This system,still in the conceptual stage,aims to integrate AI into the empirical approaches traditionally used in earthquake forecasting.The proposed HuiShangGPT system would not only assist in the comprehensive analysis of seismic data but also contribute to the expert panel discussions,enhancing the decision-making process.We outline the envisioned functionalities and potential benefits of such a system,while acknowledging the technical and practical challenges that need to be addressed for its future implementation.
文摘A database for the seismicity of the Tehri region (29.5˚N - 31.5˚N and 77.5˚E - 79.5˚E) from November 1, 1853, to March 31, 1989, has been prepared using a Compatible Personal Computer System. The seismicity database is complete for events with mb ≥ 4.5 only since 1963. It is inferred that the general seismicity of the area is considerably low, which is associated with four main tectonic features identified based on the spatial distribution of events in the area. Earthquakes in the Tehri area is of shallow focus, and maximum seismic activity is confined in the region beyond 60 km east and northwest of Tehri. The cumulative Number of Events as a Function of Time (CNET) for the period from 1963 to 1988 has indicated that precursory swarms do not precede the medium-sized earthquakes of the Tehri area. However, the CNET curves for total events and those with mb ≥ 4.6 have indicated a sharp 2-fold seismicity rate increase from 1986 compared to the preceding period. The October 20, 1991 (IST) earthquake of mb = 6.5 of Uttarkashi is believed to be associated with this seismicity rate change. The continuous increasing trend of the CNET curve before 1986 has been attributed to the detection changes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC grants No.12172036,51774018)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University(PCSIRT,IRT_17R06)+2 种基金the Russian Foundation for Basic Research,Grant Number 20‐55‐53032Russian State Task number 1021052706247‐7‐1.5.4the Government of Perm Krai,research project No.С‐26/628.
文摘Earthquakes triggered by dynamic disturbances have been confirmed by numerous observations and experiments.In the past several decades,earthquake triggering has attracted increasing attention of scholars in relation to exploring the mechanism of earthquake triggering,earthquake prediction,and the desire to use the mechanism of earthquake triggering to reduce,prevent,or trigger earthquakes.Natural earthquakes and large‐scale explosions are the most common sources of dynamic disturbances that trigger earthquakes.In the past several decades,some models have been developed,including static,dynamic,quasi‐static,and other models.Some reviews have been published,but explosiontriggered seismicity was not included.In recent years,some new results on earthquake triggering have emerged.Therefore,this paper presents a new review to reflect the new results and include the content of explosion‐triggered earthquakes for the reference of scholars in this area.Instead of a complete review of the relevant literature,this paper primarily focuses on the main aspects of dynamic earthquake triggering on a tectonic scale and makes some suggestions on issues that need to be resolved in this area in the future.
基金the financial support of the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFC3000701)the China Seismic Experimental Site in Sichuan-Yunnan(CSES-SY)。
文摘Monitoring seismicity in real time provides significant benefits for timely earthquake warning and analyses.In this study,we propose an automatic workflow based on machine learning(ML)to monitor seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin of China.This workflow includes coherent event detection,phase picking,and earthquake location using three-component data from a seismic network.By combining Phase Net,we develop an ML-based earthquake location model called Phase Loc,to conduct real-time monitoring of the local seismicity.The approach allows us to use synthetic samples covering the entire study area to train Phase Loc,addressing the problems of insufficient data samples,imbalanced data distribution,and unreliable labels when training with observed data.We apply the trained model to observed data recorded in the southern Sichuan Basin,China,between September 2018 and March 2019.The results show that the average differences in latitude,longitude,and depth are 5.7 km,6.1 km,and 2 km,respectively,compared to the reference catalog.Phase Loc combines all available phase information to make fast and reliable predictions,even if only a few phases are detected and picked.The proposed workflow may help real-time seismic monitoring in other regions as well.
基金the Major Project of Inner Mongolia Science and Technology(Grant No.2021ZD0034)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41872210)Creative Groups of Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(Grant No.2021CFA030).
文摘Injection-induced seismicity has been a focus of industry for decades as it poses great challenges to the associated risk mitigation and hazard assessment.The response surface methodology is integrated into the geo-mechanical model to analyze the effects of multiple factors on induced seismicity during the post shut-in period.We investigate the roles of poroelastic stress and pore pressure diffusion and examine the differences in the controlling mechanism between fault damage zones and the fault core.A sensitivity analysis is conducted to rank the selected factors,followed by a Box‒Behnken design to form response surfaces and formulate prediction models for the Coulomb stress and its components.Reservoir properties significantly affect the potentials of induced seismicity in the fault by changing pore pressure diffusion,which can be influenced by other factors to varying degrees.Coulomb stress is greater in pressurized damage zones than in fault cores,and the seismicity rate exhibits a consistent variation.Poroelastic stress plays a similar role to pore pressure diffusion in the stability of the fault within the pressurized damage zones.However,pore pressure diffusion dominates in the fault core due to the low rigidity,which limits the accumulation of elastic energy caused by poroelastic coupling.The slip along the fault core is a critical issue to consider.The potential for induced seismicity is reduced in the right damage zones as the pore pressure diffusion is blocked by the low-permeability fault core.However,poroelastic stressing still occurs,and in deep basements,the poroelastic effect is dominant even without a direct increase in pore pressure.The findings in this study reveal the fundamental mechanisms behind injection-induced seismicity and provide guidance for optimizing injection schemes in specific situations.
基金Strategic Priority Research Program(B)of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDB42020304)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42074059).
文摘There was an evident increase in the number of earthquakes in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir from June to July 2014 after the landing of Typhoon Hagibis.To understand the spatial and temporal evolution of this microseismicity,we built a high-precision earthquake catalog for 2014 and relocated 2275 events using recently developed methods for event picking and catalog construction.Seismicity occurred in the southeastern part of the reservoir,with the preferred fault plane orientation aligned along the Heyuan Fault.The total seismic energy peaked when the typhoon passed through the reservoir,and seismicity correlated with typhoon energy.In contrast,a limited seismic response was observed during the later Typhoon Rammasun.Combining data regarding the water level in the Xinfengjiang Reservoir and seismicity frequency changes in the Taiwan region during these two typhoon events,we suggest that typhoon activity may increase microseism energy by impacting fault stability around the Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Whether a fault can be activated also depends on how close the stress accumulation is to its failure point.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP, 2019QZKK0701-02)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42104102 and 42130807)。
文摘The left-lateral Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF) system is the northern boundary of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, separating the Tarim Basin and the Qaidam Basin. The middle section of ATF has not recorded any large earthquakes since1598 AD, so the potential seismic hazard is unclear. We develope an earthquake catalog using continuous waveform data recorded by the Tarim-Altyn-Qaidam dense nodal seismic array from September 17 to November23, 2021 in the middle section of ATF. With the machine learning-based picker, phase association, location, match and locate workflow, we detecte 233 earthquakes with M_L-1–3, far more than 6 earthquakes in the routine catalog. Combining with focal mechanism solutions and the local fault structure, we find that seismic events are clustered along the ATF with strike-slip focal mechanisms and on the southern secondary faults with thrusting focal mechanisms. This overall seismic activity in the middle section of the ATF might be due to the northeastward transpressional motion of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau block at the western margin of the Qaidam Basin.
基金funded by the joint fund of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFC2902101)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52374084)+1 种基金Open Foundation of National Energy shale gas R&D(experiment) center(2022-KFKT-12)the 111 Project(B17009)。
文摘Evaluating the physical mechanisms that link hydraulic fracturing(HF) operations to induced earthquakes and the anticipated form of the resulting events is significant in informing subsurface fluid injection operations. Current understanding supports the overriding role of the effective stress magnitude in triggering earthquakes, while the impact of change rate of effective stress has not been systematically addressed. In this work, a modified critical stiffness was brought up to investigate the likelihood, impact,and mitigation of induced seismicity during and after hydraulic fracturing by developing a poroelastic model based on rate-and-state fraction law and linear stability analysis. In the new criterion, the change rate of effective stress was considered a key variable to explore the evolution of this criterion and hence the likelihood of instability slip of fault. A coupled fluid flow-deformation model was used to represent the entire hydraulic fracturing process in COMSOL Multiphysics. The possibility of triggering an earthquake throughout the entire hydraulic fracturing process, from fracturing to cessation, was investigated considering different fault locations, orientations, and positions along the fault. The competition between the effects of the magnitude and change rate of effective stress was notable at each fracturing stage. The effective stress magnitude is a significant controlling factor during fracturing events, with the change rate dominating when fracturing is suddenly started or stopped. Instability dominates when the magnitude of the effective stress increases(constant injection at each fracturing stage) and the change rate of effective stress decreases(the injection process is suddenly stopped). Fracturing with a high injection rate, a fault adjacent to the hydraulic fracturing location and the position of the junction between the reservoir and fault are important to reduce the Coulomb failure stress(CFS) and enhance the critical stiffness as the significant disturbance of stresses at these positions in the coupled process. Therefore,notable attention should be given to the injection rate during fracturing, fault position, and position along faults as important considerations to help reduce the potential for induced seismicity. Our model was verified and confirmed using the case of the Longmaxi Formation in the Sichuan Basin, China, in which the reported microseismic data were correlated with high critical stiffness values. This work supplies new thoughts of the seismic risk associated with HF engineering.
文摘Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks, seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of the region-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake. In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study, to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify the quiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed two significant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12);the other anomaly was associated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observed in the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding background rate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescence surrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method for the earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-tofailure technique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impending earthquakes.
文摘Evaluation of the seismicity of a region depends on records of earthquakes.This article assesses the microseismicity of Tehran region,bounded by the coordinates 34.43°-36.87°N and 49.07°-53.13°E.This was investigated by the Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization(TDMMO)network from 2004 to 2010.The main purpose of this study was to substantiate the current tectonic activity of the region.We checked whether the observed faults in the region are active or not.Some active trends were found with the strongest activity in the eastern part of the region,especially associated with the North Tehran fault.In addition,records exist of strong historical earthquakes in this zone.
基金This research has been made possible by contributions from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council(NSERC)/Energi Simulation Industrial Research Chair in Reservoir Simulation and the Alberta Innovates(iCore)Chair in Reservoir ModelingThis research was supported by the Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(No.2462023BJRC001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Joint Fund Key Support Project(No.U19B6003).
文摘A comprehensive dataset from 594 fracturing wells throughout the Duvernay Formation near Fox Creek, Alberta, is collected to quantify the influences of geological, geomechanical, and operational features on the distribution and magnitude of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity. An integrated machine learning-based investigation is conducted to systematically evaluate multiple factors that contribute to induced seismicity. Feature importance indicates that a distance to fault, a distance to basement, minimum principal stress, cumulative fluid injection, initial formation pressure, and the number of fracturing stages are among significant model predictors. Our seismicity prediction map matches the observed spatial seismicity, and the prediction model successfully guides the fracturing job size of a new well to reduce seismicity risks. This study can apply to mitigating potential seismicity risks in other seismicity-frequent regions.
