This study aims to improve control schemes for COVID-19 by a numerical model with estimation of parameters.We established a multi-level and multi-objective nonlinear SEIDR model to simulate the virus transmission.The ...This study aims to improve control schemes for COVID-19 by a numerical model with estimation of parameters.We established a multi-level and multi-objective nonlinear SEIDR model to simulate the virus transmission.The early spread in Japan was adopted as a case study.The first 96 days since the infection were divided into five stages with parameters estimated.Then,we analyzed the trend of the parameter value,age structure ratio,and the defined PCR test index(standardization of the scale of PCR tests).It was discovered that the self-healing rate and confirmed rate were linear with the age structure ratio and the PCR test index using the stepwise regression method.The transmission rates were related to the age structure ratio,PCR test index,and isolation efficiency.Both isolation measures and PCR test medical screening can effectively reduce the number of infected cases based on the simulation results.However,the strategy of increasing PCR test medical screening would encountered a bottleneck effect on the virus control when the index reached 0.3.The effectiveness of the policy would decrease and the basic reproduction number reached the extreme value at 0.6.This study gave a feasible combination for isolation and PCR test by simulation.The isolation intensity could be adjusted to compensate the insufficiency of PCR test to control the pandemic.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.61803152,31920103016,and 11871475Doctoral Start-Up Foundation of Hunan Normal University under Grant No.0531120-3827Hunan Provincial Education Department under Grant No.HNKCSZ-2020-0813.
文摘This study aims to improve control schemes for COVID-19 by a numerical model with estimation of parameters.We established a multi-level and multi-objective nonlinear SEIDR model to simulate the virus transmission.The early spread in Japan was adopted as a case study.The first 96 days since the infection were divided into five stages with parameters estimated.Then,we analyzed the trend of the parameter value,age structure ratio,and the defined PCR test index(standardization of the scale of PCR tests).It was discovered that the self-healing rate and confirmed rate were linear with the age structure ratio and the PCR test index using the stepwise regression method.The transmission rates were related to the age structure ratio,PCR test index,and isolation efficiency.Both isolation measures and PCR test medical screening can effectively reduce the number of infected cases based on the simulation results.However,the strategy of increasing PCR test medical screening would encountered a bottleneck effect on the virus control when the index reached 0.3.The effectiveness of the policy would decrease and the basic reproduction number reached the extreme value at 0.6.This study gave a feasible combination for isolation and PCR test by simulation.The isolation intensity could be adjusted to compensate the insufficiency of PCR test to control the pandemic.
