Low-carbon urban development in China can pave the way to achieve the dualcarbon goal.Exploring how land use changes(LUCs)impact carbon storage(CS)under multi-climate scenarios in different urban agglomerations helps ...Low-carbon urban development in China can pave the way to achieve the dualcarbon goal.Exploring how land use changes(LUCs)impact carbon storage(CS)under multi-climate scenarios in different urban agglomerations helps to formulate differential scientific carbon mitigation policies.In this regard,this study constructs an integrated model of SD-PLUS-InVEST to simulate LUCs and CS changes under multi-climate change-based scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585)for three major urban agglomerations(3UAs)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Results demonstrate that land use demand in the 3UAs changes considerably in each scenario.Construction land in the 3UAs remains the most important growth category for the coming decade,but its increase varies in different scenarios.CS in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA)and Mid-Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration(MYRUA)shows a similar downward trend under different scenarios,with scenario SSP245 decreasing the most,to 184,713.526 Tg and 384,459.729 Tg,respectively.CS in the Cheng-Yu(Chengdu-Chongqing)Urban Agglomeration(CYUA)exhibits the opposite upward trend,with scenario SSP126 increasing the most to 153,007.973 Tg.The major cause of CS loss remains the conversion of forest land to construction land in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.However,in the CYUA,the conversion of forest land to cultivated land is the major driver of CS loss under scenario SSP126.In contrast,the conversion of cultivated land to construction land dominantly drives CS loss under scenarios SSP245 and SSP585.The conversion of water body to other land use types is the major cause of CS gain in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.At the same time,in the CYUA,the driver is the conversion of cultivated land to forest land.These findings demonstrate the significance of the low-carbon development in urban agglomerations at different development stages at home and abroad.展开更多
基金Key Project of National Social Science Fund,No.23AZD032National Natural Science Foundation of China No.42371258Program of China Scholarship Council No.202306850036。
文摘Low-carbon urban development in China can pave the way to achieve the dualcarbon goal.Exploring how land use changes(LUCs)impact carbon storage(CS)under multi-climate scenarios in different urban agglomerations helps to formulate differential scientific carbon mitigation policies.In this regard,this study constructs an integrated model of SD-PLUS-InVEST to simulate LUCs and CS changes under multi-climate change-based scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585)for three major urban agglomerations(3UAs)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Results demonstrate that land use demand in the 3UAs changes considerably in each scenario.Construction land in the 3UAs remains the most important growth category for the coming decade,but its increase varies in different scenarios.CS in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA)and Mid-Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration(MYRUA)shows a similar downward trend under different scenarios,with scenario SSP245 decreasing the most,to 184,713.526 Tg and 384,459.729 Tg,respectively.CS in the Cheng-Yu(Chengdu-Chongqing)Urban Agglomeration(CYUA)exhibits the opposite upward trend,with scenario SSP126 increasing the most to 153,007.973 Tg.The major cause of CS loss remains the conversion of forest land to construction land in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.However,in the CYUA,the conversion of forest land to cultivated land is the major driver of CS loss under scenario SSP126.In contrast,the conversion of cultivated land to construction land dominantly drives CS loss under scenarios SSP245 and SSP585.The conversion of water body to other land use types is the major cause of CS gain in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.At the same time,in the CYUA,the driver is the conversion of cultivated land to forest land.These findings demonstrate the significance of the low-carbon development in urban agglomerations at different development stages at home and abroad.
