Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attenti...Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.展开更多
【目的】储能政策体系较为复杂,对储能政策进行科学全面的评估是促进储能产业发展的有效手段。【方法】本文采用熵权Topsis(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution)方法以及层次分析法开展不同省份储能政策...【目的】储能政策体系较为复杂,对储能政策进行科学全面的评估是促进储能产业发展的有效手段。【方法】本文采用熵权Topsis(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution)方法以及层次分析法开展不同省份储能政策的综合评估,体现各省份政策对于储能项目的促进水平。考虑政策落地效果并结合储能电站实际应用场景,建立了涵盖经济指标、技术指标以及环境指标等七个指标的多目标综合评估体系。选取青海、浙江、内蒙古及河南四省代表性政策,计算多指标场景分析结果并采用熵权Topsis方法进行客观排序。对于主观评估存在的多目标各有侧重的特点,以层次分析法分别对不同目标下的储能政策进行综合评估。【结果】结果表明,熵权Topsis综合评估方法下浙江省储能政策最优,体现了浙江省政策支持下储能电站运营效益的相对最大化。在分别考虑经济性、技术性以及环境性目标的主观意图下,浙江、河南和浙江储能政策最优,反映了不同省份对于不同目标的支持力度。【结论】对于政策的主观评估需要建立目标优先次序,为后续储能政策评估提供依据。展开更多
基金supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.15BGL130)the Social Science Youth Foundation of Beijing Municipal(Grant No.15JGC148)+1 种基金the Education Ministry of China(Grant No.13YJCZH131)the China’s State Forestry Administration(Grant No.ZDWT-2014-17)
文摘Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.
文摘【目的】储能政策体系较为复杂,对储能政策进行科学全面的评估是促进储能产业发展的有效手段。【方法】本文采用熵权Topsis(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution)方法以及层次分析法开展不同省份储能政策的综合评估,体现各省份政策对于储能项目的促进水平。考虑政策落地效果并结合储能电站实际应用场景,建立了涵盖经济指标、技术指标以及环境指标等七个指标的多目标综合评估体系。选取青海、浙江、内蒙古及河南四省代表性政策,计算多指标场景分析结果并采用熵权Topsis方法进行客观排序。对于主观评估存在的多目标各有侧重的特点,以层次分析法分别对不同目标下的储能政策进行综合评估。【结果】结果表明,熵权Topsis综合评估方法下浙江省储能政策最优,体现了浙江省政策支持下储能电站运营效益的相对最大化。在分别考虑经济性、技术性以及环境性目标的主观意图下,浙江、河南和浙江储能政策最优,反映了不同省份对于不同目标的支持力度。【结论】对于政策的主观评估需要建立目标优先次序,为后续储能政策评估提供依据。
