Water resources management usually requires that hydraulic, ecological, and hydrological models be linked. The Hy- drologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model and the Hydrologic Enginee...Water resources management usually requires that hydraulic, ecological, and hydrological models be linked. The Hy- drologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model and the Hydrologic Engineering Center Geospatial River Analysis System (HEC-GEORAS), imitates flow and water profiles in the Neka river basin’s downstream flood plain. Hydrograph phases studied during the flood seasons of 1986-1999 and from 2002-2004 were used to calibrate and verify the hydraulic model respectively. Simulations of peak flood stages and hydrographs’ evaluations are congruent with studies and observations, with the former showing mean square errors between 4.8 - 10 cm. HECRAS calculations and forecast flood water levels. Nash-Sutcliffe effectiveness (CR3) is more than 0.92 along with elevated levels of water which were created with some effectiveness (CR5) of 0.94 for the validation period. The coupled two models show good performance in the water level modeling.展开更多
[Objective] The study aimed to predict the peak water level in Pearl River Estuary under the background of sea level rise. [Method] The changing trends of peak water level at Denglongshan station and Hengmen station w...[Objective] The study aimed to predict the peak water level in Pearl River Estuary under the background of sea level rise. [Method] The changing trends of peak water level at Denglongshan station and Hengmen station were analyzed firstly on the basis of regression models, and then sea level rise in Pearl River Estuary in 2050 was predicted to estimate the 1-in-50-year peak water level in the same year. [Result] Regression analyses showed that the increasing rate of peak water level over past years was 6.3 mm/a at Denglongshan station and 5.8 mm/a at Hengmen station. In addition, if sea level will rise by 20, 30 and 60 cm respectively in 2050, it was predicted that the 1-in-50-year peak water level will reach 3.04, 3.14 and 3.44 m at Denglongshan station, and 3.19, 3.29 and 3.59 m at Hengmen station separately. [Conclusion] The estimation of peak water level in Pearl River Estuary could provide theoretical references for water resources planning.展开更多
Four units and twenty-four zones of diatom have been discerned in the Borehole ZK5 in the estuarine plain of the Jiulong River, Fujian Province. Comprehensive analysis of these, together with microbiological assemblag...Four units and twenty-four zones of diatom have been discerned in the Borehole ZK5 in the estuarine plain of the Jiulong River, Fujian Province. Comprehensive analysis of these, together with microbiological assemblages and age determinations in some other boreholes, shows that during the Late Wurm Glacial, sea level of the study area rose and fell frequently, but had principally been in the environments of estuary-bay. This mainly resulted from the tectonic subouction. In this period 3 low sea levels occurred. at 18, 16 and 12 kaBP respectively. During Holocene, sea weter intruded massively and the sea level over the transgnaion maximum had been 5-10 m higher than that of the present.展开更多
Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is us...Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level （GMSL） change and the Zhujiang （Pearl） River Delta （PRD） sea level change is calculated： an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m （uncertainty interval from 1.25 to 1.46 m） increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios （representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5）, the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006-2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29 （0.21 to 0.40） m under RCP2.6, 0.31 （0.22 to 0.42） m under RCP4.5, and 0.34 （0.25 to 0.46） m under RCP8.5, respectively. By 2100, it will rise 0.59 （0.36 to 0.88） m, 0.71 （0.47 to 1.02） m, and 1.0 （0.68 to 1.41） m, respectively. In addition, considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence （i.e., 0.20 m） and that obtained from intermonthly variability （i.e., 0.33 m）, the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario with the upper uncertainty level （i.e., 1.41 m）. Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57x103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.展开更多
A linear regression analysis of 28 selected tide-gauge stations of the Zhujiang Estuary shows that there has been a tendency of local sea level rise at a rate of 2.028 mm per year. The origin of the variation is signi...A linear regression analysis of 28 selected tide-gauge stations of the Zhujiang Estuary shows that there has been a tendency of local sea level rise at a rate of 2.028 mm per year. The origin of the variation is significantly attributed to the local tectonic movement of discrepant fault-block. Based on this, four types of relative local sea level changes are classified. According to calculation, half of the fertile land, or 800 km2 of the delta plain will have been submerged by sea water by about 2040. This will yield a significant influence on the economic construction and human activities.展开更多
Groundwater resources provide most of the domestic water supply in rural Zimbabwe and support poverty reduction through irrigation facilities. Most agricultural and environmental plans need water table depth analysis ...Groundwater resources provide most of the domestic water supply in rural Zimbabwe and support poverty reduction through irrigation facilities. Most agricultural and environmental plans need water table depth analysis as an input in designing best management strategies. There are limited direct measurements of groundwater levels in Zimbabwe due to high costs and the limited human expertise. The study is aimed at coming up with a proof of concept that altitude of rivers as determined by an SRTM digital elevation model can be used to estimate the levels of groundwater in parts of Mutirikwi and Runde sub catchments of southern Zimbabwe. The study also maps the groundwater levels of the area as determined by river altitude from the digital elevation model. Firstly, the groundwater levels for nine boreholes are measured. Secondly, the altitude of a river bed nearest to each borehole site is extracted from a digital elevation model. Finally, the Spearman’s correlation coefficient is used to determine the nature and strength of the relationship between the two variables. Linear regression analysis was also used to obtain the predictive equation of the relationship and its coefficient of determination. After the relationship between groundwater and river altitude is established, 9 new random points of river altitude are generated across the study area interpolated using kriging interpolation to give the estimated altitude of river altitude. The altitude of groundwater is then determined by running the predictive equation Y = 0.8736 * X + 0.852 obtained from regression analysis. The depth to groundwater level of area is obtained by subtracting the determined groundwater altitude from the SRTM DEM. The results show strong positive and statistically significant (ρ = 0.000, α = 0.01) correlation coefficient of 0.971 between measured groundwater levels and altitude of rivers. The regression model shows a coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.975. The research therefore determines that altitude of rivers and use of geostatistics can produce physically plausible estimates of groundwater levels in the study area.展开更多
Seasonal water-level fluctuations （WLF） play a dominate role in lacustrine ecosys- tems. River-lake interaction is a direct factor in changes of seasonal lake WLF, especially for those lakes naturally connected to u...Seasonal water-level fluctuations （WLF） play a dominate role in lacustrine ecosys- tems. River-lake interaction is a direct factor in changes of seasonal lake WLF, especially for those lakes naturally connected to upstream and downstream rivers. During the past decade, the modification of WLF in the Poyang Lake （the largest freshwater lake in China） has caused intensified flood and irrigation crises, reduced water availability, compromised water quality and extensive degradation of the lake ecosystem. There has been a conjecture as to whether the modification was caused by its interactions with Yangtze River. In this study, we investi- gated the variations of seasonal WLF in China＇s Poyang Lake by comparing the water levels during the four distinct seasons （the dry season, the rising season, the flood season, and the retreating season） before and after 2003 when the Three Gorge Dam operated. The Water Surface Slope （WSS） was used as a representative parameter to measure the changes in river-lake interaction and its impacts on seasonal WLF. The results showed that the magni- tude of seasonal WLF has changed considerably since 2003; the seasonal WLF of the Poy- ang Lake have been significantly altered by the fact that the water levels both rise and retreat earlier in the season and lowered water levels in general. The fluctuations of river-lake in- teractions, in particular the changes during the retreating season, are mainly responsible for these variations in magnitude of seasonal WLF. This study demonstrates that WSS is a rep- resentative parameter to denote river-lake interactions, and the results indicate that more emphasis should be placed on the decrease of the Poyang Lake caused by the lowered water levels of the Yangtze River, especially in the retreating season.展开更多
Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two...Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two tide gauge stations in Macao and Hong Kong. Extremes in the original sea level records （daily higher high water heights） and in tidal residuals with and without the 18.6-year nodal modulation are investigated separately. Thresholds for defining extreme sea levels are calibrated based on extreme value theory. Extreme events are then modeled by peaks-over-threshold models. The model applied to extremes in original sea level records does not include modeling of their durations, while a geometric distribution is added to model the duration of extremes in tidal residuals. Realistic modeling results are recommended in all stationary models. Parametric trends of extreme sea level records are then introduced to nonstationary models through a generalized linear model framework. The result shows that, in recent decades, since the 1960s, no significant trends can be found in any type of extreme at any station, which may be related to a reduction in the influence of tropical cyclones in the region. For the longer-term record since the 1920s at Macao, a regime shift of tidal amplitudes around the 1970s may partially explain the diverse trend of extremes in original sea level records and tidal residuals.展开更多
Complex water movement and insufficient observation stations are the unfavorable factors in improving the accuracy of flow calculation of river networks. A water level updating model for river networks was set up base...Complex water movement and insufficient observation stations are the unfavorable factors in improving the accuracy of flow calculation of river networks. A water level updating model for river networks was set up based on a three-step method at key nodes, and model correction values were collected from gauge stations. To improve the accuracy of water level and discharge forecasts for the entire network, the discrete coefficients of the Saint-Venant equations for river sections were regarded as the media carrying the correction values from observation locations to other cross-sections of the river network system. To examine the applicability, the updating model was applied to flow calculation of an ideal river network and the Chengtong section of the Yangtze River. Comparison of the forecast results with the observed data demonstrates that this updating model can improve the forecast accuracy in both ideal and real river networks.展开更多
Water scarcity has become a pressing global issue, worsening food security, hindering economic development, compromising environmental quality, and threatening human health and other fundamental societal needs. Viet N...Water scarcity has become a pressing global issue, worsening food security, hindering economic development, compromising environmental quality, and threatening human health and other fundamental societal needs. Viet Nam is among the countries severely affected by water scarcity. This study comprehensively assesses the extent and scale of water scarcity in the Srepok River Basin, considering the impacts of water resource allocation, balance, and environmental flows. The areas heavily affected by water scarcity include Ea Hleo, Ea Krong Ana, and several Srepok River branches, with water scarcity periods mainly concentrated in February, March, and April. The influence of climate change has increased the extent and level of water scarcity in the river, affecting an estimated 1.4 million people for at least one month and about 1 million for at least three months. The agricultural sector is significantly affected by water scarcity, with water shortages of 50% according to the baseline scenario and over 60% according to climate change scenarios.展开更多
文摘Water resources management usually requires that hydraulic, ecological, and hydrological models be linked. The Hy- drologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model and the Hydrologic Engineering Center Geospatial River Analysis System (HEC-GEORAS), imitates flow and water profiles in the Neka river basin’s downstream flood plain. Hydrograph phases studied during the flood seasons of 1986-1999 and from 2002-2004 were used to calibrate and verify the hydraulic model respectively. Simulations of peak flood stages and hydrographs’ evaluations are congruent with studies and observations, with the former showing mean square errors between 4.8 - 10 cm. HECRAS calculations and forecast flood water levels. Nash-Sutcliffe effectiveness (CR3) is more than 0.92 along with elevated levels of water which were created with some effectiveness (CR5) of 0.94 for the validation period. The coupled two models show good performance in the water level modeling.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (50839005)Major State Basic Research Development Program (973 Program)(2010CB428405)+1 种基金Scientific Research Project of Public Welfare Industry of the Ministry of Water Resources,China (201001022)Scientific Research Project of China Water Resources Pearl River Planning Surveying and Designing Co.Ltd.(2012)
文摘[Objective] The study aimed to predict the peak water level in Pearl River Estuary under the background of sea level rise. [Method] The changing trends of peak water level at Denglongshan station and Hengmen station were analyzed firstly on the basis of regression models, and then sea level rise in Pearl River Estuary in 2050 was predicted to estimate the 1-in-50-year peak water level in the same year. [Result] Regression analyses showed that the increasing rate of peak water level over past years was 6.3 mm/a at Denglongshan station and 5.8 mm/a at Hengmen station. In addition, if sea level will rise by 20, 30 and 60 cm respectively in 2050, it was predicted that the 1-in-50-year peak water level will reach 3.04, 3.14 and 3.44 m at Denglongshan station, and 3.19, 3.29 and 3.59 m at Hengmen station separately. [Conclusion] The estimation of peak water level in Pearl River Estuary could provide theoretical references for water resources planning.
文摘Four units and twenty-four zones of diatom have been discerned in the Borehole ZK5 in the estuarine plain of the Jiulong River, Fujian Province. Comprehensive analysis of these, together with microbiological assemblages and age determinations in some other boreholes, shows that during the Late Wurm Glacial, sea level of the study area rose and fell frequently, but had principally been in the environments of estuary-bay. This mainly resulted from the tectonic subouction. In this period 3 low sea levels occurred. at 18, 16 and 12 kaBP respectively. During Holocene, sea weter intruded massively and the sea level over the transgnaion maximum had been 5-10 m higher than that of the present.
基金The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences No.XDA11010404the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41375096,41175079 and 41405082the Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau Project under contract No.9231048
文摘Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level （GMSL） change and the Zhujiang （Pearl） River Delta （PRD） sea level change is calculated： an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m （uncertainty interval from 1.25 to 1.46 m） increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios （representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5）, the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006-2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29 （0.21 to 0.40） m under RCP2.6, 0.31 （0.22 to 0.42） m under RCP4.5, and 0.34 （0.25 to 0.46） m under RCP8.5, respectively. By 2100, it will rise 0.59 （0.36 to 0.88） m, 0.71 （0.47 to 1.02） m, and 1.0 （0.68 to 1.41） m, respectively. In addition, considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence （i.e., 0.20 m） and that obtained from intermonthly variability （i.e., 0.33 m）, the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario with the upper uncertainty level （i.e., 1.41 m）. Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57x103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.
文摘A linear regression analysis of 28 selected tide-gauge stations of the Zhujiang Estuary shows that there has been a tendency of local sea level rise at a rate of 2.028 mm per year. The origin of the variation is significantly attributed to the local tectonic movement of discrepant fault-block. Based on this, four types of relative local sea level changes are classified. According to calculation, half of the fertile land, or 800 km2 of the delta plain will have been submerged by sea water by about 2040. This will yield a significant influence on the economic construction and human activities.
文摘Groundwater resources provide most of the domestic water supply in rural Zimbabwe and support poverty reduction through irrigation facilities. Most agricultural and environmental plans need water table depth analysis as an input in designing best management strategies. There are limited direct measurements of groundwater levels in Zimbabwe due to high costs and the limited human expertise. The study is aimed at coming up with a proof of concept that altitude of rivers as determined by an SRTM digital elevation model can be used to estimate the levels of groundwater in parts of Mutirikwi and Runde sub catchments of southern Zimbabwe. The study also maps the groundwater levels of the area as determined by river altitude from the digital elevation model. Firstly, the groundwater levels for nine boreholes are measured. Secondly, the altitude of a river bed nearest to each borehole site is extracted from a digital elevation model. Finally, the Spearman’s correlation coefficient is used to determine the nature and strength of the relationship between the two variables. Linear regression analysis was also used to obtain the predictive equation of the relationship and its coefficient of determination. After the relationship between groundwater and river altitude is established, 9 new random points of river altitude are generated across the study area interpolated using kriging interpolation to give the estimated altitude of river altitude. The altitude of groundwater is then determined by running the predictive equation Y = 0.8736 * X + 0.852 obtained from regression analysis. The depth to groundwater level of area is obtained by subtracting the determined groundwater altitude from the SRTM DEM. The results show strong positive and statistically significant (ρ = 0.000, α = 0.01) correlation coefficient of 0.971 between measured groundwater levels and altitude of rivers. The regression model shows a coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.975. The research therefore determines that altitude of rivers and use of geostatistics can produce physically plausible estimates of groundwater levels in the study area.
基金National Basic Research Program of China （＂973＂ Program）, No.2012CB417006 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41171024 No.41271500
文摘Seasonal water-level fluctuations （WLF） play a dominate role in lacustrine ecosys- tems. River-lake interaction is a direct factor in changes of seasonal lake WLF, especially for those lakes naturally connected to upstream and downstream rivers. During the past decade, the modification of WLF in the Poyang Lake （the largest freshwater lake in China） has caused intensified flood and irrigation crises, reduced water availability, compromised water quality and extensive degradation of the lake ecosystem. There has been a conjecture as to whether the modification was caused by its interactions with Yangtze River. In this study, we investi- gated the variations of seasonal WLF in China＇s Poyang Lake by comparing the water levels during the four distinct seasons （the dry season, the rising season, the flood season, and the retreating season） before and after 2003 when the Three Gorge Dam operated. The Water Surface Slope （WSS） was used as a representative parameter to measure the changes in river-lake interaction and its impacts on seasonal WLF. The results showed that the magni- tude of seasonal WLF has changed considerably since 2003; the seasonal WLF of the Poy- ang Lake have been significantly altered by the fact that the water levels both rise and retreat earlier in the season and lowered water levels in general. The fluctuations of river-lake in- teractions, in particular the changes during the retreating season, are mainly responsible for these variations in magnitude of seasonal WLF. This study demonstrates that WSS is a rep- resentative parameter to denote river-lake interactions, and the results indicate that more emphasis should be placed on the decrease of the Poyang Lake caused by the lowered water levels of the Yangtze River, especially in the retreating season.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project No.41375096)the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region(Project Nos.14408214 and 11305715)
文摘Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two tide gauge stations in Macao and Hong Kong. Extremes in the original sea level records （daily higher high water heights） and in tidal residuals with and without the 18.6-year nodal modulation are investigated separately. Thresholds for defining extreme sea levels are calibrated based on extreme value theory. Extreme events are then modeled by peaks-over-threshold models. The model applied to extremes in original sea level records does not include modeling of their durations, while a geometric distribution is added to model the duration of extremes in tidal residuals. Realistic modeling results are recommended in all stationary models. Parametric trends of extreme sea level records are then introduced to nonstationary models through a generalized linear model framework. The result shows that, in recent decades, since the 1960s, no significant trends can be found in any type of extreme at any station, which may be related to a reduction in the influence of tropical cyclones in the region. For the longer-term record since the 1920s at Macao, a regime shift of tidal amplitudes around the 1970s may partially explain the diverse trend of extremes in original sea level records and tidal residuals.
基金supported by the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51190091)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51009045)the Open Research Fund Program of the State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science of Wuhan University(Grant No.2012B094)
文摘Complex water movement and insufficient observation stations are the unfavorable factors in improving the accuracy of flow calculation of river networks. A water level updating model for river networks was set up based on a three-step method at key nodes, and model correction values were collected from gauge stations. To improve the accuracy of water level and discharge forecasts for the entire network, the discrete coefficients of the Saint-Venant equations for river sections were regarded as the media carrying the correction values from observation locations to other cross-sections of the river network system. To examine the applicability, the updating model was applied to flow calculation of an ideal river network and the Chengtong section of the Yangtze River. Comparison of the forecast results with the observed data demonstrates that this updating model can improve the forecast accuracy in both ideal and real river networks.
文摘Water scarcity has become a pressing global issue, worsening food security, hindering economic development, compromising environmental quality, and threatening human health and other fundamental societal needs. Viet Nam is among the countries severely affected by water scarcity. This study comprehensively assesses the extent and scale of water scarcity in the Srepok River Basin, considering the impacts of water resource allocation, balance, and environmental flows. The areas heavily affected by water scarcity include Ea Hleo, Ea Krong Ana, and several Srepok River branches, with water scarcity periods mainly concentrated in February, March, and April. The influence of climate change has increased the extent and level of water scarcity in the river, affecting an estimated 1.4 million people for at least one month and about 1 million for at least three months. The agricultural sector is significantly affected by water scarcity, with water shortages of 50% according to the baseline scenario and over 60% according to climate change scenarios.
