The principal stresses will increase or decrease during mining,leading to variations in surrounding rock strength and subsequently an influence on the risk of rockbursts.To address this issue,this study conducted theo...The principal stresses will increase or decrease during mining,leading to variations in surrounding rock strength and subsequently an influence on the risk of rockbursts.To address this issue,this study conducted theoretical analysis,numerical simulation,and field monitoring.A rockburst risk analysis method that integrates dynamic changes in the stress and strength of surrounding rock was proposed and verified in the field.The dynamic changes in maximum(σ_(1))and minimum(σ_(3))principal stresses are represented by the σ_(1) and σ_(3) differentials,respectively.The difference in principal stress differential(DPSD),defined as the difference between σ_(1) and σ_(3),was introduced as a novel indicator for rockburst risk analysis.The findings of this study demonstrate a positive correlation between increases in DPSD and heightened risks of rockbursts,as evidenced by an increase in both the frequency of rockbursts and the occurrence of large-energy microseismic events.Conversely,a decrease in DPSD is associated with a reduction in risk.Specifically,in the W1123 panel of a coal mine susceptible to rockbursts,areas exhibiting higher DPSD values experienced more frequent and severe rockbursts.The DPSD-based analysis aligned well with the observed rockburst occurrences.Subsequent optimization of rockburst prevention measures in areas with elevated DPSD led to a reduction in DPSD.Following these adjustments,the W1123 panel predominantly experienced low-energy microseismic events,with a significant decrease in large-energy microseismic events and no further rockbursts.The DPSD analysis is a valuable tool for evaluating rockburst risk and aiding in prevention,which is of great significance for disaster prevention.展开更多
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular(CV)complications are common in intensive care unit(ICU)patients after gastrointestinal surgery and are associated with increased mortality and prolonged hospital stay.The optimization of post...BACKGROUND Cardiovascular(CV)complications are common in intensive care unit(ICU)patients after gastrointestinal surgery and are associated with increased mortality and prolonged hospital stay.The optimization of postoperative nursing interventions,particularly pain management,is crucial for reducing such complications.AIM To investigate the effects of enhanced recovery nursing on CV complications after gastrointestinal surgery in ICU patients and associated risk factors.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on 78 adult patients who underwent gastrointestinal surgery in the ICU of our hospital between February 2023 and September 2024.Among them,40 patients received standard care(control group),while 38 received enhanced recovery nursing(observation group).We compared the incidence of CV complications and nursing satisfaction between the two groups.Patients were divided into CV complication and non-complication groups based on complication occurrence,and logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors.RESULTS In the control and observation groups,the incidence of CV complications was 30.0%(12/40)and 18.4%(7/38),with a nursing satisfaction rate of 70.0%(28/40)and 92.1%(35/38),respectively.The postoperative pain score at 14 days was significantly lower in the observation group(0.27±0.15)compared to the control group(1.65±0.37),with all differences being statistically significant(P<0.05).Univariate analysis indicated significant differences in age,body mass index,hypertension,diabetes,smoking history,history of heart failure,and previous myocardial infarction(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression identified heart failure history,previous myocardial infarction,age,hypertension,and diabetes as independent risk factors,with odds ratios of 1.195,1.528,1.062,1.836,and 1.942,respectively(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION Implementing enhanced recovery nursing for ICU patients after gastrointestinal surgery is beneficial in reducing the incidence of CV complications and improving nursing satisfaction.展开更多
BACKGROUND Bile leakage is a common complication following laparoscopic common bile duct exploration(LCBDE)with primary duct closure(PDC).Identifying and analyzing the risk factors associated with bile leakage is cruc...BACKGROUND Bile leakage is a common complication following laparoscopic common bile duct exploration(LCBDE)with primary duct closure(PDC).Identifying and analyzing the risk factors associated with bile leakage is crucial for improving surgical outcomes.AIM To explore the value analysis of common risk factors for bile leakage after LCBDE and PDC,with a focus on strict adherence to indications.METHODS Clinical data of 106 cases undergoing LCBDE+PDC in the Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery Department(Division 1)of Chuzhou First People’s Hospital from April 2019 to March 2024 were collected.Retrospective and multiple factor regression analysis were conducted on common risk factors for bile leakage.The change in surgical time was analyzed using the cumulative summation(CUSUM)method,and the minimum number of cases required to complete the learning curve for PDC was obtained based on the proposed fitting curve by identifying the CUSUM maximum value.RESULTS Multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that fibrinous inflammation and direct bilirubin/indirect bilirubin were significant independent high-risk factors for postoperative bile leakage(P<0.05).The time to drain removal and length of hospital stay in cases without bile leakage were significantly shorter than in cases with bile leakage(P<0.05),with statistical significance.The CUSUM method indicated that a minimum of 51 cases were required for the surgeon to complete the learning curve(P=0.023).CONCLUSION With a good assessment of duodenal papilla sphincter function,unobstructed bile-pancreatic duct convergence,exact stone clearance,and sufficient surgical experience to complete the learning curve,PDC remains the preferred method for bile duct closure and is worthy of clinical promotion.展开更多
Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased ...Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased air pollution.Moreover,it indirectly supports communities during weather events and natural disasters,ensuring food security and fostering community cohesion.However,concerns about planetary health risks persist in highly urbanized and climate-affected areas.Employing electronic databases such as Web of Science and PubMed and adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines,we identified 55 relevant papers to comprehend the planetary health risks associated with urban agriculture,The literature review identified five distinct health risks related to urban agriculture:(1)trace metal risks in urban farms;(2)health risks associated with wastewater irrigation;(3)zoonotic risks;(4)other health risks;and(5)social and economic risks.The study highlights that urban agriculture,while emphasizing environmental benefits,particularly raises concerns about trace metal bioaccumulation in soil and vegetables,posing health risks for populations.Other well studied risks included wastewater irrigation and backyard livestock farming.The main limitations in the available literature were in studying infectious diseases and antibiotic resistance associated with urban agriculture.展开更多
Energy storage batteries can smooth the volatility of renewable energy sources.The operating conditions during power grid integration of renewable energy can affect the performance and failure risk of battery energy s...Energy storage batteries can smooth the volatility of renewable energy sources.The operating conditions during power grid integration of renewable energy can affect the performance and failure risk of battery energy storage system(BESS).However,the current modeling of grid-connected BESS is overly simplistic,typically only considering state of charge(SOC)and power constraints.Detailed lithium(Li)-ion battery cell models are computationally intensive and impractical for real-time applications and may not be suitable for power grid operating conditions.Additionally,there is a lack of real-time batteries risk assessment frameworks.To address these issues,in this study,we establish a thermal-electric-performance(TEP)coupling model based on a multitime scale BESS model,incorporating the electrical and thermal characteristics of Li-ion batteries along with their performance degradation to achieve detailed simulation of grid-connected BESS.Additionally,considering the operating characteristics of energy storage batteries and electrical and thermal abuse factors,we developed a battery pack operational riskmodel,which takes into account SOCand charge-discharge rate(Cr),using amodified failure rate to represent the BESS risk.By integrating detailed simulation of energy storage with predictive failure risk analysis,we obtained a detailed model for BESS risk analysis.This model offers a multi-time scale integrated simulation that spans month-level energy storage simulation times,day-level performance degradation,minutescale failure rate,and second-level BESS characteristics.It offers a critical tool for the study of BESS.Finally,the performance and risk of energy storage batteries under three scenarios—microgrid energy storage,wind power smoothing,and power grid failure response—are simulated,achieving a real-time state-dependent operational risk analysis of the BESS.展开更多
Flood control operation,a non-engineering measure,can efficiently manage flood disasters within a river basin.However,numerous uncertainties exit in the real-time operation of flood control systems,creating risks in d...Flood control operation,a non-engineering measure,can efficiently manage flood disasters within a river basin.However,numerous uncertainties exit in the real-time operation of flood control systems,creating risks in decision-making.As an efficient tool to mitigate these risks,risk management has garnered increasing attention in real-time flood control operation.This communication offers a series of suggestions for future research concerning risk management in real-time flood control operation,including risk assessment,risk diagnosis,and risk control methods.展开更多
The risk recognition model for preventing and monitoring the Coronary Heart Diseases (CHD) in the aged is proposed, which is based on the testing results of four indexes and includes Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), Tot...The risk recognition model for preventing and monitoring the Coronary Heart Diseases (CHD) in the aged is proposed, which is based on the testing results of four indexes and includes Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), Total Cholesterol (TC), Triglyceridemia (TG)and age. Some people who took the health checkup in Shanghai Xinhua Hospital are classified into 3 groups,and each group is associated with prevalence risk of contracting CHD. Then the fuzzy recognition method is applied to evaluate the risk of CHD. The accuracy rate is up to 85%. The model is applicable to not only analysis of risk in medical but also analysis of risk in finance, insurance and some other fields.展开更多
This paper presents a quantitative risk analysis of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)transportation.An accident that happened on June 13,2020,on the highway near Wenling,China is studied as a case.In this accident,LPG carr...This paper presents a quantitative risk analysis of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)transportation.An accident that happened on June 13,2020,on the highway near Wenling,China is studied as a case.In this accident,LPG carried by a tank truck on the highway leaked and caused a large explosion,which led to 20 deaths.Different methods are combined to calculate the consequence of the accident.Multi-energy model and rupture of vessel model are employed to calculate the overpressure;the simulation result of the multi-energy model is closer to the damage caused by the accident.The safety distances in accidents of LPG transport storage tanks of different capacities are calculated in this study;the results show that the damage of explosion will increase with the filling degree of the tank.Even though the filling degree is 90%(value required by law),the 99%fatality rate range will reach 42 m,which is higher than regulated distance between road and building.The social risk of the tank truck has also been calculated and the results show that the risk is not acceptable.The calculating method used in this study could evaluate the risk of LPG tanker more accurately,which may contribute to the establishment of transportation regulation so that losses from similar accidents in the future could be reduced.展开更多
BACKGROUND Cirrhosis is a significant risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Variability in HCC risk among patients with cirrhosis is notable,particularly when considering the diverse etiolog...BACKGROUND Cirrhosis is a significant risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Variability in HCC risk among patients with cirrhosis is notable,particularly when considering the diverse etiologies of cirrhosis.AIM To identify specific risk factors contributing to HCC development in patients with cirrhosis.METHODS This retrospective study analyzed data from cirrhotic patients at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 1,2012 to September 30,2022 with at least 6 mo of followup.Patient demographics,medical histories,etiologies,and clinical characteristics were examined.Cox regression analysis was used to analyze correlations of the above parameters with hepatocarcinogenesis,while competing risk regression was used to estimate their adjusted hazard ratios accounting for death.The cumulative incidence was plotted over time.RESULTS Overall,5417 patients with cirrhosis(median age:54 years;65.8%males)were analyzed.Hepatitis B virus(HBV)was the most common etiology(23.3%),with 25%(n=1352)developing HCC over a 2.9-year follow-up period.Patients with multiple etiologies had the HCC highest incidence(30.3%),followed by those with HBV-related cirrhosis(29.5%).Significant risk factors included male sex,advanced age,hepatitis C virus(HCV)infection,elevated blood ammonia,and low platelet count.Men had a higher 5-year HCC risk than women(37.0%vs 31.5%).HBV,HCV,and HBV/HCV co-infected patients had 5-year risks of HCC of 45.8%,42.9%,and 48.1%,respectively,compared to 29.5%in nonviral hepatitis cases,highlighting the significant HCC risk from viral hepatitis,especially HBV,and underscores the importance of monitoring these high-risk groups.CONCLUSION In conclusion,HBV-related cirrhosis strongly correlates with HCC,with male sex,older age,viral hepatitis,elevated blood ammonia,and lower albumin and platelet levels increasing the risk of HCC.展开更多
According to international standard plant quarantine measures and principle risk analysis(ISPM No.11),a risk assessment was carried out for Passalora sequoiae through geographical distribution,possibility of colonizat...According to international standard plant quarantine measures and principle risk analysis(ISPM No.11),a risk assessment was carried out for Passalora sequoiae through geographical distribution,possibility of colonization,probability of diffusion,economic importance and difficulty in risk management.Results show that P.sequoiae has a greater risk of introduction and diffusion,and it has distributed in parts of China.It is suggested that P.sequoiae should be added to the list of forest dangerous pests in China.Besides,porting departments should focus on the pathogen on imported host seedlings like Cryptomeria.展开更多
The tragedy of Vila Socó epitomizes the socio-environmental repercussions of rapid industrialization in Cubatão. Beginning in the 1940s with the construction of the Anchieta highway, the city experienced an ...The tragedy of Vila Socó epitomizes the socio-environmental repercussions of rapid industrialization in Cubatão. Beginning in the 1940s with the construction of the Anchieta highway, the city experienced an influx of migrants drawn by burgeoning industries, leading to unplanned urban growth and the emergence of vulnerable communities like Vila Socó. This article examines the interconnected factors—such as demographic shifts, inadequate planning, and regulatory oversight—that culminated in the devastating fire of 1984, claiming numerous lives and highlighting systemic failures. Utilizing the Haddon Matrix, this study dissects the Vila Socó incident, emphasizing the roles of human error, infrastructure integrity, and socio-economic disparities in disaster causation. By contextualizing the tragedy within Cubatão’s industrial trajectory, it underscores the urgent need for comprehensive risk assessment and proactive mitigation strategies in rapidly developing regions globally. Beyond its immediate focus, this work offers broader insights into the dynamics of industrial disasters and their socio-economic implications. As pipelines continue to play a vital role in global energy infrastructure, the lessons drawn from Vila Socó’s tragedy resonate deeply, emphasizing the imperative of robust safety protocols and accountable governance to prevent similar catastrophes in the future.展开更多
Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-fe...Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-feeding of breast milk.Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model was applied to investigate and evaluate the risk events.Results:High-risk events include breast milk quality inspection,hand hygiene during collection,disinfection of collectors,cold chain management,hand hygiene during the reception,breast milk closed-loop management,and post-collection disposal.Root cause analysis of high-risk events was conducted and breast milk management strategies outside the hospital and within the neonatal department were proposed.Conclusion:Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model can identify and assess neonatal breast milk management risks effectively,which helps improve the management of neonatal breast milk.It is conducive to the safe development and promotion of bottle feeding of breast milk for neonates,ensuring the quality of medical services and the safety of children.展开更多
Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is...Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is used as the state variable for analysis. Results and Conclusion\ A risk analysis model named the cusp model is presented. Various states regarding the safety of the system such as the accident state, no accident state and miss state can be represented at will on the cusp model.展开更多
The method for pest risk analysis was used to make the potential risk analysis and assessment to the 8 Bursaphelenchus species found in the pines in Yuyao, Ningbao, and the corresponding risk management strategies wer...The method for pest risk analysis was used to make the potential risk analysis and assessment to the 8 Bursaphelenchus species found in the pines in Yuyao, Ningbao, and the corresponding risk management strategies were put forward.展开更多
This study is novel,as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency.To this end,the CIA-ISM m...This study is novel,as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency.To this end,the CIA-ISM methodology,which is the combination of Cross-Impact Analysis(CIA)and Interpretative Structural Model(ISM),allows the representation of all possible connections among risks,as well as representing real events under conditions of uncertainty.The proposed model integrates the use of an information system for the generation of multiple emergency scenarios that include the capture of complex interactions among agents,resources and variable environmental conditions.The results highlight the capacity of the proposed emergency scenario model based on CIA-ISM for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks,identification of hidden vulnerabilities and evaluation of mitigation strategies in real-time.This study not only expands the theoretical knowledge of emergency management but also provides a useful tool to improve preparedness and response capacity in the face of adverse events in dynamic and complex environments.展开更多
BACKGROUND Patients with inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)are at an increased risk of bacterial pneumonia,contributing to significant morbidity and mortality.While previous studies have identified various risk factors,i...BACKGROUND Patients with inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)are at an increased risk of bacterial pneumonia,contributing to significant morbidity and mortality.While previous studies have identified various risk factors,including medications and comorbidities,the independent contribution of IBD to pneumonia risk remains unclear.We hypothesized that the increased pneumonia risk is primarily driven by factors other than IBD itself.AIM To investigate the relative contributions of IBD,comorbidities,and medications to pneumonia risk in patients with IBD.METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the All of Us Research Program database(2010-2022).We matched 2810 participants with IBD 1:1 with controls using four propensity score models:(1)Demographics/Lifestyle only;(2)Plus comorbidities;(3)Plus medications;and(4)All factors combined.Then we used Cox proportional hazards models to assess pneumonia risk and logistic regression to evaluate risk factors.RESULTS In the primary analysis of 5620 matched participants,IBD was not independently associated with increased pneumonia risk[hazard ratio(HR)=1.07,95%CI:0.84-1.35]when matched for all factors.However,participants with IBD had significantly higher risk(HR=2.08,95%CI:1.56-2.78)when matched only for demographics and lifestyle factors.Within the IBD cohort,a high comorbidity burden(Charlson Comorbidity Index≥10)[odds ratio(OR)=12.20,95%CI:6.69-23.00]and systemic steroid use(OR=2.26,95%CI:1.21-4.64)were independently associated with increased pneumonia risk.CONCLUSION Comorbidities and systemic steroids,rather than IBD itself,drive pneumonia risk.Management should focus on these factors and prioritize vaccination in high-risk patients.展开更多
This study investigated the impacts of random negative training datasets(NTDs)on the uncertainty of machine learning models for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment of the Loess Plateau,northern Shaanxi Province,...This study investigated the impacts of random negative training datasets(NTDs)on the uncertainty of machine learning models for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment of the Loess Plateau,northern Shaanxi Province,China.Based on randomly generated 40 NTDs,the study developed models for the geologic hazard susceptibility assessment using the random forest algorithm and evaluated their performances using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC).Specifically,the means and standard deviations of the AUC values from all models were then utilized to assess the overall spatial correlation between the conditioning factors and the susceptibility assessment,as well as the uncertainty introduced by the NTDs.A risk and return methodology was thus employed to quantify and mitigate the uncertainty,with log odds ratios used to characterize the susceptibility assessment levels.The risk and return values were calculated based on the standard deviations and means of the log odds ratios of various locations.After the mean log odds ratios were converted into probability values,the final susceptibility map was plotted,which accounts for the uncertainty induced by random NTDs.The results indicate that the AUC values of the models ranged from 0.810 to 0.963,with an average of 0.852 and a standard deviation of 0.035,indicating encouraging prediction effects and certain uncertainty.The risk and return analysis reveals that low-risk and high-return areas suggest lower standard deviations and higher means across multiple model-derived assessments.Overall,this study introduces a new framework for quantifying the uncertainty of multiple training and evaluation models,aimed at improving their robustness and reliability.Additionally,by identifying low-risk and high-return areas,resource allocation for geologic hazard prevention and control can be optimized,thus ensuring that limited resources are directed toward the most effective prevention and control measures.展开更多
The socio-economic attribute of geo-hazard made us distinguish it from the traditional engineering geology study. It will get more social benefit from the analysis of the geo-hazard in the socio-economic attribute. Th...The socio-economic attribute of geo-hazard made us distinguish it from the traditional engineering geology study. It will get more social benefit from the analysis of the geo-hazard in the socio-economic attribute. The hazard and the vulnerability of the element controls the risk level of the regional geo-hazard. The risk analysis supported by GIS in geo-hazard study is one of the most important directions. Based on the author’s studies in recent years, a risk analysis system of regional geo-hazard (RiskAnly) has been developed on the basis of software MAPGIS. The paper introduces the train of system design, the structure and the workflow of RiskAnly. As a case study, the paper also deals with the risk zonation of the regional landslide hazard of China.展开更多
Security is a nonfunctional information system attribute that plays a crucial role in wide sensor network application domains. Security risk can be quantified as the combination of the probability that a sensor networ...Security is a nonfunctional information system attribute that plays a crucial role in wide sensor network application domains. Security risk can be quantified as the combination of the probability that a sensor network system may fail and the evaluation of the severity of the damage caused by the failure. In this paper, we devise a methodology of Rough Outlier Detection (ROD) for the detection of security-based risk factor, which originates from violations of attack requirements (namely, attack risks). The methodology elaborates dimension reduction method to analyze the attack risk probability from high dimensional and nonlinear data set, and combines it with rough redundancy reduction and the distance measurement of kernel function which is obtained using the ROD. In this way, it is possible to determine the risky scenarios, and the analysis feedback can be used to improve the sensor network system design. We illustrate the methodology in the DARPA case set study using step-by-step approach and then prove that the method is effective in lowering the rate of false alarm.展开更多
Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risk. Risk analysis of extended reach drilling （ERD） is very important to prevent complex failures and to improve drilling e...Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risk. Risk analysis of extended reach drilling （ERD） is very important to prevent complex failures and to improve drilling efficiency. Nowadays there are few reports on how to analyze quantitatively the drilling risk for extended reach wells （ERWs）. Based on the fuzzy set theory, a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model for analyzing risks of ERD is proposed in this paper. Well B6ERW07 is a planned 8,000-meter ERW with a high ratio of horizontal displacement （HD） to vertical depth （VD） in the Liuhua Oilfield, the South China Sea, China. On the basis of the evaluation model developed in this study, the risk for drilling Well B6ERW07 was evaluated before drilling. The evaluation result shows that the success rate of drilling this well is predicted to be 51.9%, providing important rational and scientific information for the decisionmakers.展开更多
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52374180 and 52327804).
文摘The principal stresses will increase or decrease during mining,leading to variations in surrounding rock strength and subsequently an influence on the risk of rockbursts.To address this issue,this study conducted theoretical analysis,numerical simulation,and field monitoring.A rockburst risk analysis method that integrates dynamic changes in the stress and strength of surrounding rock was proposed and verified in the field.The dynamic changes in maximum(σ_(1))and minimum(σ_(3))principal stresses are represented by the σ_(1) and σ_(3) differentials,respectively.The difference in principal stress differential(DPSD),defined as the difference between σ_(1) and σ_(3),was introduced as a novel indicator for rockburst risk analysis.The findings of this study demonstrate a positive correlation between increases in DPSD and heightened risks of rockbursts,as evidenced by an increase in both the frequency of rockbursts and the occurrence of large-energy microseismic events.Conversely,a decrease in DPSD is associated with a reduction in risk.Specifically,in the W1123 panel of a coal mine susceptible to rockbursts,areas exhibiting higher DPSD values experienced more frequent and severe rockbursts.The DPSD-based analysis aligned well with the observed rockburst occurrences.Subsequent optimization of rockburst prevention measures in areas with elevated DPSD led to a reduction in DPSD.Following these adjustments,the W1123 panel predominantly experienced low-energy microseismic events,with a significant decrease in large-energy microseismic events and no further rockbursts.The DPSD analysis is a valuable tool for evaluating rockburst risk and aiding in prevention,which is of great significance for disaster prevention.
文摘BACKGROUND Cardiovascular(CV)complications are common in intensive care unit(ICU)patients after gastrointestinal surgery and are associated with increased mortality and prolonged hospital stay.The optimization of postoperative nursing interventions,particularly pain management,is crucial for reducing such complications.AIM To investigate the effects of enhanced recovery nursing on CV complications after gastrointestinal surgery in ICU patients and associated risk factors.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on 78 adult patients who underwent gastrointestinal surgery in the ICU of our hospital between February 2023 and September 2024.Among them,40 patients received standard care(control group),while 38 received enhanced recovery nursing(observation group).We compared the incidence of CV complications and nursing satisfaction between the two groups.Patients were divided into CV complication and non-complication groups based on complication occurrence,and logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors.RESULTS In the control and observation groups,the incidence of CV complications was 30.0%(12/40)and 18.4%(7/38),with a nursing satisfaction rate of 70.0%(28/40)and 92.1%(35/38),respectively.The postoperative pain score at 14 days was significantly lower in the observation group(0.27±0.15)compared to the control group(1.65±0.37),with all differences being statistically significant(P<0.05).Univariate analysis indicated significant differences in age,body mass index,hypertension,diabetes,smoking history,history of heart failure,and previous myocardial infarction(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression identified heart failure history,previous myocardial infarction,age,hypertension,and diabetes as independent risk factors,with odds ratios of 1.195,1.528,1.062,1.836,and 1.942,respectively(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION Implementing enhanced recovery nursing for ICU patients after gastrointestinal surgery is beneficial in reducing the incidence of CV complications and improving nursing satisfaction.
基金Supported by the Wannan Medical College Teaching Hospital Special Application for Scientific Research,No.WK2023JXYY036the Anhui Provincial Translational Clinical Medical Research Special Application,No.202204295107020062.
文摘BACKGROUND Bile leakage is a common complication following laparoscopic common bile duct exploration(LCBDE)with primary duct closure(PDC).Identifying and analyzing the risk factors associated with bile leakage is crucial for improving surgical outcomes.AIM To explore the value analysis of common risk factors for bile leakage after LCBDE and PDC,with a focus on strict adherence to indications.METHODS Clinical data of 106 cases undergoing LCBDE+PDC in the Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery Department(Division 1)of Chuzhou First People’s Hospital from April 2019 to March 2024 were collected.Retrospective and multiple factor regression analysis were conducted on common risk factors for bile leakage.The change in surgical time was analyzed using the cumulative summation(CUSUM)method,and the minimum number of cases required to complete the learning curve for PDC was obtained based on the proposed fitting curve by identifying the CUSUM maximum value.RESULTS Multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that fibrinous inflammation and direct bilirubin/indirect bilirubin were significant independent high-risk factors for postoperative bile leakage(P<0.05).The time to drain removal and length of hospital stay in cases without bile leakage were significantly shorter than in cases with bile leakage(P<0.05),with statistical significance.The CUSUM method indicated that a minimum of 51 cases were required for the surgeon to complete the learning curve(P=0.023).CONCLUSION With a good assessment of duodenal papilla sphincter function,unobstructed bile-pancreatic duct convergence,exact stone clearance,and sufficient surgical experience to complete the learning curve,PDC remains the preferred method for bile duct closure and is worthy of clinical promotion.
文摘Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased air pollution.Moreover,it indirectly supports communities during weather events and natural disasters,ensuring food security and fostering community cohesion.However,concerns about planetary health risks persist in highly urbanized and climate-affected areas.Employing electronic databases such as Web of Science and PubMed and adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines,we identified 55 relevant papers to comprehend the planetary health risks associated with urban agriculture,The literature review identified five distinct health risks related to urban agriculture:(1)trace metal risks in urban farms;(2)health risks associated with wastewater irrigation;(3)zoonotic risks;(4)other health risks;and(5)social and economic risks.The study highlights that urban agriculture,while emphasizing environmental benefits,particularly raises concerns about trace metal bioaccumulation in soil and vegetables,posing health risks for populations.Other well studied risks included wastewater irrigation and backyard livestock farming.The main limitations in the available literature were in studying infectious diseases and antibiotic resistance associated with urban agriculture.
基金Supported by Open Fund of National Key Laboratory of Power Grid Safety(No.XTB51202301386).
文摘Energy storage batteries can smooth the volatility of renewable energy sources.The operating conditions during power grid integration of renewable energy can affect the performance and failure risk of battery energy storage system(BESS).However,the current modeling of grid-connected BESS is overly simplistic,typically only considering state of charge(SOC)and power constraints.Detailed lithium(Li)-ion battery cell models are computationally intensive and impractical for real-time applications and may not be suitable for power grid operating conditions.Additionally,there is a lack of real-time batteries risk assessment frameworks.To address these issues,in this study,we establish a thermal-electric-performance(TEP)coupling model based on a multitime scale BESS model,incorporating the electrical and thermal characteristics of Li-ion batteries along with their performance degradation to achieve detailed simulation of grid-connected BESS.Additionally,considering the operating characteristics of energy storage batteries and electrical and thermal abuse factors,we developed a battery pack operational riskmodel,which takes into account SOCand charge-discharge rate(Cr),using amodified failure rate to represent the BESS risk.By integrating detailed simulation of energy storage with predictive failure risk analysis,we obtained a detailed model for BESS risk analysis.This model offers a multi-time scale integrated simulation that spans month-level energy storage simulation times,day-level performance degradation,minutescale failure rate,and second-level BESS characteristics.It offers a critical tool for the study of BESS.Finally,the performance and risk of energy storage batteries under three scenarios—microgrid energy storage,wind power smoothing,and power grid failure response—are simulated,achieving a real-time state-dependent operational risk analysis of the BESS.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51909062)the National Key R&D Program(Grant No.2022YFC3202801).
文摘Flood control operation,a non-engineering measure,can efficiently manage flood disasters within a river basin.However,numerous uncertainties exit in the real-time operation of flood control systems,creating risks in decision-making.As an efficient tool to mitigate these risks,risk management has garnered increasing attention in real-time flood control operation.This communication offers a series of suggestions for future research concerning risk management in real-time flood control operation,including risk assessment,risk diagnosis,and risk control methods.
基金Projects supported by Swiss Re-Fudan Research FoundationShanghai Key-point Science & Constructive project
文摘The risk recognition model for preventing and monitoring the Coronary Heart Diseases (CHD) in the aged is proposed, which is based on the testing results of four indexes and includes Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), Total Cholesterol (TC), Triglyceridemia (TG)and age. Some people who took the health checkup in Shanghai Xinhua Hospital are classified into 3 groups,and each group is associated with prevalence risk of contracting CHD. Then the fuzzy recognition method is applied to evaluate the risk of CHD. The accuracy rate is up to 85%. The model is applicable to not only analysis of risk in medical but also analysis of risk in finance, insurance and some other fields.
基金the Research Project of National Engineering Research Center for Petroleum Refining Technology and Catalyst(RIPP,SINOPEC)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFC0808600)。
文摘This paper presents a quantitative risk analysis of liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)transportation.An accident that happened on June 13,2020,on the highway near Wenling,China is studied as a case.In this accident,LPG carried by a tank truck on the highway leaked and caused a large explosion,which led to 20 deaths.Different methods are combined to calculate the consequence of the accident.Multi-energy model and rupture of vessel model are employed to calculate the overpressure;the simulation result of the multi-energy model is closer to the damage caused by the accident.The safety distances in accidents of LPG transport storage tanks of different capacities are calculated in this study;the results show that the damage of explosion will increase with the filling degree of the tank.Even though the filling degree is 90%(value required by law),the 99%fatality rate range will reach 42 m,which is higher than regulated distance between road and building.The social risk of the tank truck has also been calculated and the results show that the risk is not acceptable.The calculating method used in this study could evaluate the risk of LPG tanker more accurately,which may contribute to the establishment of transportation regulation so that losses from similar accidents in the future could be reduced.
文摘BACKGROUND Cirrhosis is a significant risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Variability in HCC risk among patients with cirrhosis is notable,particularly when considering the diverse etiologies of cirrhosis.AIM To identify specific risk factors contributing to HCC development in patients with cirrhosis.METHODS This retrospective study analyzed data from cirrhotic patients at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 1,2012 to September 30,2022 with at least 6 mo of followup.Patient demographics,medical histories,etiologies,and clinical characteristics were examined.Cox regression analysis was used to analyze correlations of the above parameters with hepatocarcinogenesis,while competing risk regression was used to estimate their adjusted hazard ratios accounting for death.The cumulative incidence was plotted over time.RESULTS Overall,5417 patients with cirrhosis(median age:54 years;65.8%males)were analyzed.Hepatitis B virus(HBV)was the most common etiology(23.3%),with 25%(n=1352)developing HCC over a 2.9-year follow-up period.Patients with multiple etiologies had the HCC highest incidence(30.3%),followed by those with HBV-related cirrhosis(29.5%).Significant risk factors included male sex,advanced age,hepatitis C virus(HCV)infection,elevated blood ammonia,and low platelet count.Men had a higher 5-year HCC risk than women(37.0%vs 31.5%).HBV,HCV,and HBV/HCV co-infected patients had 5-year risks of HCC of 45.8%,42.9%,and 48.1%,respectively,compared to 29.5%in nonviral hepatitis cases,highlighting the significant HCC risk from viral hepatitis,especially HBV,and underscores the importance of monitoring these high-risk groups.CONCLUSION In conclusion,HBV-related cirrhosis strongly correlates with HCC,with male sex,older age,viral hepatitis,elevated blood ammonia,and lower albumin and platelet levels increasing the risk of HCC.
基金Supported by Projects of General Administration of Customs(2020HK159)Nanjing Customs Research Projects(2023KJ20).
文摘According to international standard plant quarantine measures and principle risk analysis(ISPM No.11),a risk assessment was carried out for Passalora sequoiae through geographical distribution,possibility of colonization,probability of diffusion,economic importance and difficulty in risk management.Results show that P.sequoiae has a greater risk of introduction and diffusion,and it has distributed in parts of China.It is suggested that P.sequoiae should be added to the list of forest dangerous pests in China.Besides,porting departments should focus on the pathogen on imported host seedlings like Cryptomeria.
文摘The tragedy of Vila Socó epitomizes the socio-environmental repercussions of rapid industrialization in Cubatão. Beginning in the 1940s with the construction of the Anchieta highway, the city experienced an influx of migrants drawn by burgeoning industries, leading to unplanned urban growth and the emergence of vulnerable communities like Vila Socó. This article examines the interconnected factors—such as demographic shifts, inadequate planning, and regulatory oversight—that culminated in the devastating fire of 1984, claiming numerous lives and highlighting systemic failures. Utilizing the Haddon Matrix, this study dissects the Vila Socó incident, emphasizing the roles of human error, infrastructure integrity, and socio-economic disparities in disaster causation. By contextualizing the tragedy within Cubatão’s industrial trajectory, it underscores the urgent need for comprehensive risk assessment and proactive mitigation strategies in rapidly developing regions globally. Beyond its immediate focus, this work offers broader insights into the dynamics of industrial disasters and their socio-economic implications. As pipelines continue to play a vital role in global energy infrastructure, the lessons drawn from Vila Socó’s tragedy resonate deeply, emphasizing the imperative of robust safety protocols and accountable governance to prevent similar catastrophes in the future.
文摘Objective:To analyze the existing risks in breast milk management at the neonatal department and provide corresponding countermeasures.Methods:22 risk events were identified in 7 risk links in the process of bottle-feeding of breast milk.Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model was applied to investigate and evaluate the risk events.Results:High-risk events include breast milk quality inspection,hand hygiene during collection,disinfection of collectors,cold chain management,hand hygiene during the reception,breast milk closed-loop management,and post-collection disposal.Root cause analysis of high-risk events was conducted and breast milk management strategies outside the hospital and within the neonatal department were proposed.Conclusion:Hazard Vulnerability Analysis based on the Kaiser model can identify and assess neonatal breast milk management risks effectively,which helps improve the management of neonatal breast milk.It is conducive to the safe development and promotion of bottle feeding of breast milk for neonates,ensuring the quality of medical services and the safety of children.
文摘Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is used as the state variable for analysis. Results and Conclusion\ A risk analysis model named the cusp model is presented. Various states regarding the safety of the system such as the accident state, no accident state and miss state can be represented at will on the cusp model.
文摘The method for pest risk analysis was used to make the potential risk analysis and assessment to the 8 Bursaphelenchus species found in the pines in Yuyao, Ningbao, and the corresponding risk management strategies were put forward.
文摘This study is novel,as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency.To this end,the CIA-ISM methodology,which is the combination of Cross-Impact Analysis(CIA)and Interpretative Structural Model(ISM),allows the representation of all possible connections among risks,as well as representing real events under conditions of uncertainty.The proposed model integrates the use of an information system for the generation of multiple emergency scenarios that include the capture of complex interactions among agents,resources and variable environmental conditions.The results highlight the capacity of the proposed emergency scenario model based on CIA-ISM for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks,identification of hidden vulnerabilities and evaluation of mitigation strategies in real-time.This study not only expands the theoretical knowledge of emergency management but also provides a useful tool to improve preparedness and response capacity in the face of adverse events in dynamic and complex environments.
基金Supported by The Interdisciplinary Guided Network for Investigation,Translation and Equity for the All of Us Research Program,No.OT2 OD031915.
文摘BACKGROUND Patients with inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)are at an increased risk of bacterial pneumonia,contributing to significant morbidity and mortality.While previous studies have identified various risk factors,including medications and comorbidities,the independent contribution of IBD to pneumonia risk remains unclear.We hypothesized that the increased pneumonia risk is primarily driven by factors other than IBD itself.AIM To investigate the relative contributions of IBD,comorbidities,and medications to pneumonia risk in patients with IBD.METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the All of Us Research Program database(2010-2022).We matched 2810 participants with IBD 1:1 with controls using four propensity score models:(1)Demographics/Lifestyle only;(2)Plus comorbidities;(3)Plus medications;and(4)All factors combined.Then we used Cox proportional hazards models to assess pneumonia risk and logistic regression to evaluate risk factors.RESULTS In the primary analysis of 5620 matched participants,IBD was not independently associated with increased pneumonia risk[hazard ratio(HR)=1.07,95%CI:0.84-1.35]when matched for all factors.However,participants with IBD had significantly higher risk(HR=2.08,95%CI:1.56-2.78)when matched only for demographics and lifestyle factors.Within the IBD cohort,a high comorbidity burden(Charlson Comorbidity Index≥10)[odds ratio(OR)=12.20,95%CI:6.69-23.00]and systemic steroid use(OR=2.26,95%CI:1.21-4.64)were independently associated with increased pneumonia risk.CONCLUSION Comorbidities and systemic steroids,rather than IBD itself,drive pneumonia risk.Management should focus on these factors and prioritize vaccination in high-risk patients.
基金supported by a project entitled Loess Plateau Region-Watershed-Slope Geological Hazard Multi-Scale Collaborative Intelligent Early Warning System of the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3003404)a project of the Shaanxi Youth Science and Technology Star(2021KJXX-87)public welfare geological survey projects of Shaanxi Institute of Geologic Survey(20180301,201918,202103,and 202413).
文摘This study investigated the impacts of random negative training datasets(NTDs)on the uncertainty of machine learning models for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment of the Loess Plateau,northern Shaanxi Province,China.Based on randomly generated 40 NTDs,the study developed models for the geologic hazard susceptibility assessment using the random forest algorithm and evaluated their performances using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC).Specifically,the means and standard deviations of the AUC values from all models were then utilized to assess the overall spatial correlation between the conditioning factors and the susceptibility assessment,as well as the uncertainty introduced by the NTDs.A risk and return methodology was thus employed to quantify and mitigate the uncertainty,with log odds ratios used to characterize the susceptibility assessment levels.The risk and return values were calculated based on the standard deviations and means of the log odds ratios of various locations.After the mean log odds ratios were converted into probability values,the final susceptibility map was plotted,which accounts for the uncertainty induced by random NTDs.The results indicate that the AUC values of the models ranged from 0.810 to 0.963,with an average of 0.852 and a standard deviation of 0.035,indicating encouraging prediction effects and certain uncertainty.The risk and return analysis reveals that low-risk and high-return areas suggest lower standard deviations and higher means across multiple model-derived assessments.Overall,this study introduces a new framework for quantifying the uncertainty of multiple training and evaluation models,aimed at improving their robustness and reliability.Additionally,by identifying low-risk and high-return areas,resource allocation for geologic hazard prevention and control can be optimized,thus ensuring that limited resources are directed toward the most effective prevention and control measures.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 40072084
文摘The socio-economic attribute of geo-hazard made us distinguish it from the traditional engineering geology study. It will get more social benefit from the analysis of the geo-hazard in the socio-economic attribute. The hazard and the vulnerability of the element controls the risk level of the regional geo-hazard. The risk analysis supported by GIS in geo-hazard study is one of the most important directions. Based on the author’s studies in recent years, a risk analysis system of regional geo-hazard (RiskAnly) has been developed on the basis of software MAPGIS. The paper introduces the train of system design, the structure and the workflow of RiskAnly. As a case study, the paper also deals with the risk zonation of the regional landslide hazard of China.
基金the Jiangsu 973 Scientific Project，the National Natural Science Foundation of China，the Jiangsu Natural Science Foundation，the Aerospace Innovation Fund，the Lianyungang Science & Technology Project
文摘Security is a nonfunctional information system attribute that plays a crucial role in wide sensor network application domains. Security risk can be quantified as the combination of the probability that a sensor network system may fail and the evaluation of the severity of the damage caused by the failure. In this paper, we devise a methodology of Rough Outlier Detection (ROD) for the detection of security-based risk factor, which originates from violations of attack requirements (namely, attack risks). The methodology elaborates dimension reduction method to analyze the attack risk probability from high dimensional and nonlinear data set, and combines it with rough redundancy reduction and the distance measurement of kernel function which is obtained using the ROD. In this way, it is possible to determine the risky scenarios, and the analysis feedback can be used to improve the sensor network system design. We illustrate the methodology in the DARPA case set study using step-by-step approach and then prove that the method is effective in lowering the rate of false alarm.
基金support from the project of CNOOC China Limited-Shenzhen (Grant No. Z2007SLSZ-034)the foundation project of the State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resource and Prospecting (Grant No. PRPDX2008-08) is gratefully acknowledged
文摘Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risk. Risk analysis of extended reach drilling （ERD） is very important to prevent complex failures and to improve drilling efficiency. Nowadays there are few reports on how to analyze quantitatively the drilling risk for extended reach wells （ERWs）. Based on the fuzzy set theory, a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model for analyzing risks of ERD is proposed in this paper. Well B6ERW07 is a planned 8,000-meter ERW with a high ratio of horizontal displacement （HD） to vertical depth （VD） in the Liuhua Oilfield, the South China Sea, China. On the basis of the evaluation model developed in this study, the risk for drilling Well B6ERW07 was evaluated before drilling. The evaluation result shows that the success rate of drilling this well is predicted to be 51.9%, providing important rational and scientific information for the decisionmakers.
