The risk recognition model for preventing and monitoring the Coronary Heart Diseases (CHD) in the aged is proposed, which is based on the testing results of four indexes and includes Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), Tot...The risk recognition model for preventing and monitoring the Coronary Heart Diseases (CHD) in the aged is proposed, which is based on the testing results of four indexes and includes Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), Total Cholesterol (TC), Triglyceridemia (TG)and age. Some people who took the health checkup in Shanghai Xinhua Hospital are classified into 3 groups,and each group is associated with prevalence risk of contracting CHD. Then the fuzzy recognition method is applied to evaluate the risk of CHD. The accuracy rate is up to 85%. The model is applicable to not only analysis of risk in medical but also analysis of risk in finance, insurance and some other fields.展开更多
0 INTRODUCTION As a high-risk construction project,underground engineering is characterized by large investment,long construction period,complexconstruction techniques,numerous unforeseeable risk factors,and significa...0 INTRODUCTION As a high-risk construction project,underground engineering is characterized by large investment,long construction period,complexconstruction techniques,numerous unforeseeable risk factors,and significantenvironmental impacts.Identifying potentialdisaster risks from the intricate web of influencing factors plays a critical role in ensuring project safety.展开更多
The principal stresses will increase or decrease during mining,leading to variations in surrounding rock strength and subsequently an influence on the risk of rockbursts.To address this issue,this study conducted theo...The principal stresses will increase or decrease during mining,leading to variations in surrounding rock strength and subsequently an influence on the risk of rockbursts.To address this issue,this study conducted theoretical analysis,numerical simulation,and field monitoring.A rockburst risk analysis method that integrates dynamic changes in the stress and strength of surrounding rock was proposed and verified in the field.The dynamic changes in maximum(σ_(1))and minimum(σ_(3))principal stresses are represented by the σ_(1) and σ_(3) differentials,respectively.The difference in principal stress differential(DPSD),defined as the difference between σ_(1) and σ_(3),was introduced as a novel indicator for rockburst risk analysis.The findings of this study demonstrate a positive correlation between increases in DPSD and heightened risks of rockbursts,as evidenced by an increase in both the frequency of rockbursts and the occurrence of large-energy microseismic events.Conversely,a decrease in DPSD is associated with a reduction in risk.Specifically,in the W1123 panel of a coal mine susceptible to rockbursts,areas exhibiting higher DPSD values experienced more frequent and severe rockbursts.The DPSD-based analysis aligned well with the observed rockburst occurrences.Subsequent optimization of rockburst prevention measures in areas with elevated DPSD led to a reduction in DPSD.Following these adjustments,the W1123 panel predominantly experienced low-energy microseismic events,with a significant decrease in large-energy microseismic events and no further rockbursts.The DPSD analysis is a valuable tool for evaluating rockburst risk and aiding in prevention,which is of great significance for disaster prevention.展开更多
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular(CV)complications are common in intensive care unit(ICU)patients after gastrointestinal surgery and are associated with increased mortality and prolonged hospital stay.The optimization of post...BACKGROUND Cardiovascular(CV)complications are common in intensive care unit(ICU)patients after gastrointestinal surgery and are associated with increased mortality and prolonged hospital stay.The optimization of postoperative nursing interventions,particularly pain management,is crucial for reducing such complications.AIM To investigate the effects of enhanced recovery nursing on CV complications after gastrointestinal surgery in ICU patients and associated risk factors.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on 78 adult patients who underwent gastrointestinal surgery in the ICU of our hospital between February 2023 and September 2024.Among them,40 patients received standard care(control group),while 38 received enhanced recovery nursing(observation group).We compared the incidence of CV complications and nursing satisfaction between the two groups.Patients were divided into CV complication and non-complication groups based on complication occurrence,and logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors.RESULTS In the control and observation groups,the incidence of CV complications was 30.0%(12/40)and 18.4%(7/38),with a nursing satisfaction rate of 70.0%(28/40)and 92.1%(35/38),respectively.The postoperative pain score at 14 days was significantly lower in the observation group(0.27±0.15)compared to the control group(1.65±0.37),with all differences being statistically significant(P<0.05).Univariate analysis indicated significant differences in age,body mass index,hypertension,diabetes,smoking history,history of heart failure,and previous myocardial infarction(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression identified heart failure history,previous myocardial infarction,age,hypertension,and diabetes as independent risk factors,with odds ratios of 1.195,1.528,1.062,1.836,and 1.942,respectively(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION Implementing enhanced recovery nursing for ICU patients after gastrointestinal surgery is beneficial in reducing the incidence of CV complications and improving nursing satisfaction.展开更多
BACKGROUND Bile leakage is a common complication following laparoscopic common bile duct exploration(LCBDE)with primary duct closure(PDC).Identifying and analyzing the risk factors associated with bile leakage is cruc...BACKGROUND Bile leakage is a common complication following laparoscopic common bile duct exploration(LCBDE)with primary duct closure(PDC).Identifying and analyzing the risk factors associated with bile leakage is crucial for improving surgical outcomes.AIM To explore the value analysis of common risk factors for bile leakage after LCBDE and PDC,with a focus on strict adherence to indications.METHODS Clinical data of 106 cases undergoing LCBDE+PDC in the Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery Department(Division 1)of Chuzhou First People’s Hospital from April 2019 to March 2024 were collected.Retrospective and multiple factor regression analysis were conducted on common risk factors for bile leakage.The change in surgical time was analyzed using the cumulative summation(CUSUM)method,and the minimum number of cases required to complete the learning curve for PDC was obtained based on the proposed fitting curve by identifying the CUSUM maximum value.RESULTS Multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that fibrinous inflammation and direct bilirubin/indirect bilirubin were significant independent high-risk factors for postoperative bile leakage(P<0.05).The time to drain removal and length of hospital stay in cases without bile leakage were significantly shorter than in cases with bile leakage(P<0.05),with statistical significance.The CUSUM method indicated that a minimum of 51 cases were required for the surgeon to complete the learning curve(P=0.023).CONCLUSION With a good assessment of duodenal papilla sphincter function,unobstructed bile-pancreatic duct convergence,exact stone clearance,and sufficient surgical experience to complete the learning curve,PDC remains the preferred method for bile duct closure and is worthy of clinical promotion.展开更多
Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is...Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is used as the state variable for analysis. Results and Conclusion\ A risk analysis model named the cusp model is presented. Various states regarding the safety of the system such as the accident state, no accident state and miss state can be represented at will on the cusp model.展开更多
The method for pest risk analysis was used to make the potential risk analysis and assessment to the 8 Bursaphelenchus species found in the pines in Yuyao, Ningbao, and the corresponding risk management strategies wer...The method for pest risk analysis was used to make the potential risk analysis and assessment to the 8 Bursaphelenchus species found in the pines in Yuyao, Ningbao, and the corresponding risk management strategies were put forward.展开更多
Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased ...Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased air pollution.Moreover,it indirectly supports communities during weather events and natural disasters,ensuring food security and fostering community cohesion.However,concerns about planetary health risks persist in highly urbanized and climate-affected areas.Employing electronic databases such as Web of Science and PubMed and adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines,we identified 55 relevant papers to comprehend the planetary health risks associated with urban agriculture,The literature review identified five distinct health risks related to urban agriculture:(1)trace metal risks in urban farms;(2)health risks associated with wastewater irrigation;(3)zoonotic risks;(4)other health risks;and(5)social and economic risks.The study highlights that urban agriculture,while emphasizing environmental benefits,particularly raises concerns about trace metal bioaccumulation in soil and vegetables,posing health risks for populations.Other well studied risks included wastewater irrigation and backyard livestock farming.The main limitations in the available literature were in studying infectious diseases and antibiotic resistance associated with urban agriculture.展开更多
The socio-economic attribute of geo-hazard made us distinguish it from the traditional engineering geology study. It will get more social benefit from the analysis of the geo-hazard in the socio-economic attribute. Th...The socio-economic attribute of geo-hazard made us distinguish it from the traditional engineering geology study. It will get more social benefit from the analysis of the geo-hazard in the socio-economic attribute. The hazard and the vulnerability of the element controls the risk level of the regional geo-hazard. The risk analysis supported by GIS in geo-hazard study is one of the most important directions. Based on the author’s studies in recent years, a risk analysis system of regional geo-hazard (RiskAnly) has been developed on the basis of software MAPGIS. The paper introduces the train of system design, the structure and the workflow of RiskAnly. As a case study, the paper also deals with the risk zonation of the regional landslide hazard of China.展开更多
Security is a nonfunctional information system attribute that plays a crucial role in wide sensor network application domains. Security risk can be quantified as the combination of the probability that a sensor networ...Security is a nonfunctional information system attribute that plays a crucial role in wide sensor network application domains. Security risk can be quantified as the combination of the probability that a sensor network system may fail and the evaluation of the severity of the damage caused by the failure. In this paper, we devise a methodology of Rough Outlier Detection (ROD) for the detection of security-based risk factor, which originates from violations of attack requirements (namely, attack risks). The methodology elaborates dimension reduction method to analyze the attack risk probability from high dimensional and nonlinear data set, and combines it with rough redundancy reduction and the distance measurement of kernel function which is obtained using the ROD. In this way, it is possible to determine the risky scenarios, and the analysis feedback can be used to improve the sensor network system design. We illustrate the methodology in the DARPA case set study using step-by-step approach and then prove that the method is effective in lowering the rate of false alarm.展开更多
Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risk. Risk analysis of extended reach drilling （ERD） is very important to prevent complex failures and to improve drilling e...Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risk. Risk analysis of extended reach drilling （ERD） is very important to prevent complex failures and to improve drilling efficiency. Nowadays there are few reports on how to analyze quantitatively the drilling risk for extended reach wells （ERWs）. Based on the fuzzy set theory, a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model for analyzing risks of ERD is proposed in this paper. Well B6ERW07 is a planned 8,000-meter ERW with a high ratio of horizontal displacement （HD） to vertical depth （VD） in the Liuhua Oilfield, the South China Sea, China. On the basis of the evaluation model developed in this study, the risk for drilling Well B6ERW07 was evaluated before drilling. The evaluation result shows that the success rate of drilling this well is predicted to be 51.9%, providing important rational and scientific information for the decisionmakers.展开更多
The present risk analysis model of engineering investment is built by fuzzy hierarchy approach under the assumption of maximizing the revenues of the project during its whole life cycle of operation. It can reasonably...The present risk analysis model of engineering investment is built by fuzzy hierarchy approach under the assumption of maximizing the revenues of the project during its whole life cycle of operation. It can reasonably be expressed by a system evaluation analysis. As a matter of fact, the system, aimed by its system goal can be modelled by a set of factors, constitutively structured by certain links between them, to form a factorial network chart, which represents the essentials of the system behaviours, the nodes of which represent the factors concerned. The weight distribution between factors located at the same level can be determined by the eigen-value problem of a 'pair comparison' relation matrix. The weight distribution of factors at each level is successively manipulated until the fuzzy synthetic risk assessment. As an example of risk analysis of engineering investment, a harbour construction project is presented for illustration.展开更多
AIM： To assess the value of pre-transplant artificial liver support in reducing the pre-operative risk factors relating to early mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation （OLT）. METHODS： Fifty adult patient...AIM： To assess the value of pre-transplant artificial liver support in reducing the pre-operative risk factors relating to early mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation （OLT）. METHODS： Fifty adult patients with various stages and various etiologies undergoing OLT procedures were treated with molecular adsorbent recycling system （MARS） as preoperative liver support therapy. The study included two parts, the first one is to evaluate the medical effectiveness of single MARS treatment with some clinical and laboratory parameters, which were supposed to be the therapeutical pre-transplant risk factors, the second part is to study the patients undergoing OLT using the regression analysis on preoperative risk factors relating to early mortality （30 d） after OLT. RESULTS： In the 50 patients, the statistically significant improvement in the biochemical parameters was observed （pre-treatment and post-treatment）. Eight patients avoided the scheduled Ltx due to significant relief of clinical condition or recovery of failing liver function, 8 patients died, 34 patients were successfully bridged to Ltx, the immediate outcome of this 34 patients within 30d observation was： 28 kept alive and 6 patients died. CONCLUSION： Pre-operative SOFA, level of creatinine, INR, TNF-α, IL-10 are the main preoperative risk factors that cause early death after operation, MARS treatment before transplantion can relieve these factors significantly.展开更多
Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is...Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is essential.In this work,a risk analysis and maintenance decision-making model for natural gas pipelines with external corrosion is proposed based on a Bayesian network.A fault tree model is first employed to identify the causes of external corrosion.The Bayesian network for risk analysis is determined accordingly.The maintenance strategies are then inserted into the Bayesian network to show a reduction of the risk.The costs of maintenance strategies and the reduced risk after maintenance are combined in an optimization function to build a decision-making model.Because of the limitations of historical data,some of the parameters in the Bayesian network are obtained from a probabilistic estimation model,which combines expert experience and fuzzy set theory.Finally,a case study is carried out to verify the feasibility of the maintenance decision model.This indicates that the method proposed in this work can be used to provide effective maintenance schemes for different pipeline external corrosion scenarios and to reduce the possible losses caused by external corrosion.展开更多
In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity an...In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.展开更多
andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step becau...andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step because it provides essential data upon which judgments can be made and policy can be formulated. This study aims at quantifying direct economic losses from debris flows at a medium scale in the study area in Italian Central Alps. Available hazard maps were the main inputs of this study. These maps were overlaid with information concerning elements at risk and their economic value. Then, a combination of both market and construction values was used to obtain estimates of future economic losses. As a result, two direct economic risk maps were prepared together with risk curves, useful to summarize expected monetary damage against the respective hazard probability. Afterwards, a qualitative risk map derived using a risk matrix officially provided by the set of laws issued by the regional government, was prepared. The results delimit areas of high economic as well as strategic importance which might be affected by debris flows in the future. Aside from limitations and inaccuracies inherently included in risk analysis process, identification of high risk areas allows local authorities to focus their attention on the “hot-spots”, where important consequences may arise and local （large） scale analysis needs to be performed with more precise cost-effectiveness ratio. The risk maps can be also used by the local authorities to increase population’s adaptive capacity in the disaster prevention process.展开更多
This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks （ BNs）. In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurr...This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks （ BNs）. In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. In order to use fuzzy information, an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors. The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge, and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation, modifying and maintaining a BN model. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking, or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness, vagueness and ignorance. This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. Specifically, the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values, but also the a-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Off-loading （FPSO） unit and the anthorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.展开更多
Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike fail...Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering.展开更多
Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater resources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of randomness,fuzziness,grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system.Based on fuzzy theory...Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater resources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of randomness,fuzziness,grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system.Based on fuzzy theory,a comprehensive evaluation model on groundwater resources carrying capacity is constructed with blind information.Then a risk assessment model of surcharge about groundwater resources carrying capacity is established on blind reliability theory.The probable value"*"matrix of fuzzy membership degree about carrying capacity corresponding to each judgment level can be obtained with the aid of blind algorithm as well as the subjective reliability"×"matrix.And then a graph of"groundwater carrying capacity v.s.accumulative reliability"can be gained Based on the graph,fuzzy membership degree of groundwater resources carrying capacity to each judgment level under different risk probability can be got.Thus,a comparatively reasonable judgment to groundwater resources carrying capacity might be obtained,with comprehensive analysis to the state of society,economy technology and ecology.展开更多
Levees are affected by over-exploitation of river sand and river adjustments after the formation of sand pits. The slope stability is seriously threatened, drawing wide concern among experts and scholars in the area o...Levees are affected by over-exploitation of river sand and river adjustments after the formation of sand pits. The slope stability is seriously threatened, drawing wide concern among experts and scholars in the area of water conservancy. This study analyzed the uncertainties of slope stability of levees under river sand mining conditions, including uncertainty caused by interest- driven over-exploitation by sand mining contractors, and uncertainty of the distance from the slope or sand pit to the bottom of the levee under the action of cross-flow force after the sand pit forms. Based on the results of uncertainty analysis, the distribution and related parameters of these uncertainties were estimated according to the Yangtze River sand mining practice. A risk model of the slope instability of a levee under river sand mining conditions was built, and the possibility of slope instability under different slope gradients in a certain reach of the Yangtze River was calculated with the Monte Carlo method and probability combination method. The results indicated that the probability of instability risk rose from 2.38% to 4.74% as the pits came into being.展开更多
基金Projects supported by Swiss Re-Fudan Research FoundationShanghai Key-point Science & Constructive project
文摘The risk recognition model for preventing and monitoring the Coronary Heart Diseases (CHD) in the aged is proposed, which is based on the testing results of four indexes and includes Low Density Lipoprotein (LDL), Total Cholesterol (TC), Triglyceridemia (TG)and age. Some people who took the health checkup in Shanghai Xinhua Hospital are classified into 3 groups,and each group is associated with prevalence risk of contracting CHD. Then the fuzzy recognition method is applied to evaluate the risk of CHD. The accuracy rate is up to 85%. The model is applicable to not only analysis of risk in medical but also analysis of risk in finance, insurance and some other fields.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42107211 and 42130719)the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province(No.2025ZNSFSC0097)the open project of State Key Laboratory of Performance Monitoring and Protecting of Rail Transit Infrastructure,East China Jiaotong University(No.HJGZ2022104).
文摘0 INTRODUCTION As a high-risk construction project,underground engineering is characterized by large investment,long construction period,complexconstruction techniques,numerous unforeseeable risk factors,and significantenvironmental impacts.Identifying potentialdisaster risks from the intricate web of influencing factors plays a critical role in ensuring project safety.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52374180 and 52327804).
文摘The principal stresses will increase or decrease during mining,leading to variations in surrounding rock strength and subsequently an influence on the risk of rockbursts.To address this issue,this study conducted theoretical analysis,numerical simulation,and field monitoring.A rockburst risk analysis method that integrates dynamic changes in the stress and strength of surrounding rock was proposed and verified in the field.The dynamic changes in maximum(σ_(1))and minimum(σ_(3))principal stresses are represented by the σ_(1) and σ_(3) differentials,respectively.The difference in principal stress differential(DPSD),defined as the difference between σ_(1) and σ_(3),was introduced as a novel indicator for rockburst risk analysis.The findings of this study demonstrate a positive correlation between increases in DPSD and heightened risks of rockbursts,as evidenced by an increase in both the frequency of rockbursts and the occurrence of large-energy microseismic events.Conversely,a decrease in DPSD is associated with a reduction in risk.Specifically,in the W1123 panel of a coal mine susceptible to rockbursts,areas exhibiting higher DPSD values experienced more frequent and severe rockbursts.The DPSD-based analysis aligned well with the observed rockburst occurrences.Subsequent optimization of rockburst prevention measures in areas with elevated DPSD led to a reduction in DPSD.Following these adjustments,the W1123 panel predominantly experienced low-energy microseismic events,with a significant decrease in large-energy microseismic events and no further rockbursts.The DPSD analysis is a valuable tool for evaluating rockburst risk and aiding in prevention,which is of great significance for disaster prevention.
文摘BACKGROUND Cardiovascular(CV)complications are common in intensive care unit(ICU)patients after gastrointestinal surgery and are associated with increased mortality and prolonged hospital stay.The optimization of postoperative nursing interventions,particularly pain management,is crucial for reducing such complications.AIM To investigate the effects of enhanced recovery nursing on CV complications after gastrointestinal surgery in ICU patients and associated risk factors.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on 78 adult patients who underwent gastrointestinal surgery in the ICU of our hospital between February 2023 and September 2024.Among them,40 patients received standard care(control group),while 38 received enhanced recovery nursing(observation group).We compared the incidence of CV complications and nursing satisfaction between the two groups.Patients were divided into CV complication and non-complication groups based on complication occurrence,and logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors.RESULTS In the control and observation groups,the incidence of CV complications was 30.0%(12/40)and 18.4%(7/38),with a nursing satisfaction rate of 70.0%(28/40)and 92.1%(35/38),respectively.The postoperative pain score at 14 days was significantly lower in the observation group(0.27±0.15)compared to the control group(1.65±0.37),with all differences being statistically significant(P<0.05).Univariate analysis indicated significant differences in age,body mass index,hypertension,diabetes,smoking history,history of heart failure,and previous myocardial infarction(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression identified heart failure history,previous myocardial infarction,age,hypertension,and diabetes as independent risk factors,with odds ratios of 1.195,1.528,1.062,1.836,and 1.942,respectively(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION Implementing enhanced recovery nursing for ICU patients after gastrointestinal surgery is beneficial in reducing the incidence of CV complications and improving nursing satisfaction.
基金Supported by the Wannan Medical College Teaching Hospital Special Application for Scientific Research,No.WK2023JXYY036the Anhui Provincial Translational Clinical Medical Research Special Application,No.202204295107020062.
文摘BACKGROUND Bile leakage is a common complication following laparoscopic common bile duct exploration(LCBDE)with primary duct closure(PDC).Identifying and analyzing the risk factors associated with bile leakage is crucial for improving surgical outcomes.AIM To explore the value analysis of common risk factors for bile leakage after LCBDE and PDC,with a focus on strict adherence to indications.METHODS Clinical data of 106 cases undergoing LCBDE+PDC in the Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery Department(Division 1)of Chuzhou First People’s Hospital from April 2019 to March 2024 were collected.Retrospective and multiple factor regression analysis were conducted on common risk factors for bile leakage.The change in surgical time was analyzed using the cumulative summation(CUSUM)method,and the minimum number of cases required to complete the learning curve for PDC was obtained based on the proposed fitting curve by identifying the CUSUM maximum value.RESULTS Multifactor logistic regression analysis showed that fibrinous inflammation and direct bilirubin/indirect bilirubin were significant independent high-risk factors for postoperative bile leakage(P<0.05).The time to drain removal and length of hospital stay in cases without bile leakage were significantly shorter than in cases with bile leakage(P<0.05),with statistical significance.The CUSUM method indicated that a minimum of 51 cases were required for the surgeon to complete the learning curve(P=0.023).CONCLUSION With a good assessment of duodenal papilla sphincter function,unobstructed bile-pancreatic duct convergence,exact stone clearance,and sufficient surgical experience to complete the learning curve,PDC remains the preferred method for bile duct closure and is worthy of clinical promotion.
文摘Aim To assess simultaneously various risk states of a system. Methods\ Using the catastrophe and fuzzy theory, the energy and uncertainty in a system are set as two control variables and the function of the system is used as the state variable for analysis. Results and Conclusion\ A risk analysis model named the cusp model is presented. Various states regarding the safety of the system such as the accident state, no accident state and miss state can be represented at will on the cusp model.
文摘The method for pest risk analysis was used to make the potential risk analysis and assessment to the 8 Bursaphelenchus species found in the pines in Yuyao, Ningbao, and the corresponding risk management strategies were put forward.
文摘Urban agriculture is gaining recognition for its potential contributions to environmental resilience and climate change adaptation,providing advantages such as urban greening,reduced heat island effects,and decreased air pollution.Moreover,it indirectly supports communities during weather events and natural disasters,ensuring food security and fostering community cohesion.However,concerns about planetary health risks persist in highly urbanized and climate-affected areas.Employing electronic databases such as Web of Science and PubMed and adhering to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines,we identified 55 relevant papers to comprehend the planetary health risks associated with urban agriculture,The literature review identified five distinct health risks related to urban agriculture:(1)trace metal risks in urban farms;(2)health risks associated with wastewater irrigation;(3)zoonotic risks;(4)other health risks;and(5)social and economic risks.The study highlights that urban agriculture,while emphasizing environmental benefits,particularly raises concerns about trace metal bioaccumulation in soil and vegetables,posing health risks for populations.Other well studied risks included wastewater irrigation and backyard livestock farming.The main limitations in the available literature were in studying infectious diseases and antibiotic resistance associated with urban agriculture.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 40072084
文摘The socio-economic attribute of geo-hazard made us distinguish it from the traditional engineering geology study. It will get more social benefit from the analysis of the geo-hazard in the socio-economic attribute. The hazard and the vulnerability of the element controls the risk level of the regional geo-hazard. The risk analysis supported by GIS in geo-hazard study is one of the most important directions. Based on the author’s studies in recent years, a risk analysis system of regional geo-hazard (RiskAnly) has been developed on the basis of software MAPGIS. The paper introduces the train of system design, the structure and the workflow of RiskAnly. As a case study, the paper also deals with the risk zonation of the regional landslide hazard of China.
基金the Jiangsu 973 Scientific Project，the National Natural Science Foundation of China，the Jiangsu Natural Science Foundation，the Aerospace Innovation Fund，the Lianyungang Science & Technology Project
文摘Security is a nonfunctional information system attribute that plays a crucial role in wide sensor network application domains. Security risk can be quantified as the combination of the probability that a sensor network system may fail and the evaluation of the severity of the damage caused by the failure. In this paper, we devise a methodology of Rough Outlier Detection (ROD) for the detection of security-based risk factor, which originates from violations of attack requirements (namely, attack risks). The methodology elaborates dimension reduction method to analyze the attack risk probability from high dimensional and nonlinear data set, and combines it with rough redundancy reduction and the distance measurement of kernel function which is obtained using the ROD. In this way, it is possible to determine the risky scenarios, and the analysis feedback can be used to improve the sensor network system design. We illustrate the methodology in the DARPA case set study using step-by-step approach and then prove that the method is effective in lowering the rate of false alarm.
基金support from the project of CNOOC China Limited-Shenzhen (Grant No. Z2007SLSZ-034)the foundation project of the State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resource and Prospecting (Grant No. PRPDX2008-08) is gratefully acknowledged
文摘Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risk. Risk analysis of extended reach drilling （ERD） is very important to prevent complex failures and to improve drilling efficiency. Nowadays there are few reports on how to analyze quantitatively the drilling risk for extended reach wells （ERWs）. Based on the fuzzy set theory, a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model for analyzing risks of ERD is proposed in this paper. Well B6ERW07 is a planned 8,000-meter ERW with a high ratio of horizontal displacement （HD） to vertical depth （VD） in the Liuhua Oilfield, the South China Sea, China. On the basis of the evaluation model developed in this study, the risk for drilling Well B6ERW07 was evaluated before drilling. The evaluation result shows that the success rate of drilling this well is predicted to be 51.9%, providing important rational and scientific information for the decisionmakers.
文摘The present risk analysis model of engineering investment is built by fuzzy hierarchy approach under the assumption of maximizing the revenues of the project during its whole life cycle of operation. It can reasonably be expressed by a system evaluation analysis. As a matter of fact, the system, aimed by its system goal can be modelled by a set of factors, constitutively structured by certain links between them, to form a factorial network chart, which represents the essentials of the system behaviours, the nodes of which represent the factors concerned. The weight distribution between factors located at the same level can be determined by the eigen-value problem of a 'pair comparison' relation matrix. The weight distribution of factors at each level is successively manipulated until the fuzzy synthetic risk assessment. As an example of risk analysis of engineering investment, a harbour construction project is presented for illustration.
基金Supported by the Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Hunan, China, No. 04JJ6017
文摘AIM： To assess the value of pre-transplant artificial liver support in reducing the pre-operative risk factors relating to early mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation （OLT）. METHODS： Fifty adult patients with various stages and various etiologies undergoing OLT procedures were treated with molecular adsorbent recycling system （MARS） as preoperative liver support therapy. The study included two parts, the first one is to evaluate the medical effectiveness of single MARS treatment with some clinical and laboratory parameters, which were supposed to be the therapeutical pre-transplant risk factors, the second part is to study the patients undergoing OLT using the regression analysis on preoperative risk factors relating to early mortality （30 d） after OLT. RESULTS： In the 50 patients, the statistically significant improvement in the biochemical parameters was observed （pre-treatment and post-treatment）. Eight patients avoided the scheduled Ltx due to significant relief of clinical condition or recovery of failing liver function, 8 patients died, 34 patients were successfully bridged to Ltx, the immediate outcome of this 34 patients within 30d observation was： 28 kept alive and 6 patients died. CONCLUSION： Pre-operative SOFA, level of creatinine, INR, TNF-α, IL-10 are the main preoperative risk factors that cause early death after operation, MARS treatment before transplantion can relieve these factors significantly.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC0809300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51806247)+2 种基金the Key Technology Project of Petro China Co Ltd.(Grant No.ZLZX2020-05)the Foundation of Sinopec(Grant No.320034)the Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(Grant No.2462020YXZZ052)
文摘Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is essential.In this work,a risk analysis and maintenance decision-making model for natural gas pipelines with external corrosion is proposed based on a Bayesian network.A fault tree model is first employed to identify the causes of external corrosion.The Bayesian network for risk analysis is determined accordingly.The maintenance strategies are then inserted into the Bayesian network to show a reduction of the risk.The costs of maintenance strategies and the reduced risk after maintenance are combined in an optimization function to build a decision-making model.Because of the limitations of historical data,some of the parameters in the Bayesian network are obtained from a probabilistic estimation model,which combines expert experience and fuzzy set theory.Finally,a case study is carried out to verify the feasibility of the maintenance decision model.This indicates that the method proposed in this work can be used to provide effective maintenance schemes for different pipeline external corrosion scenarios and to reduce the possible losses caused by external corrosion.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 50609005)the Science Foundation of Guangxi Education Department (Grant No 200708LX099)the Science Foundation of Guangxi University (Grant No X071096)
文摘In this paper, a model of overtopping risk under the joint effects of floods and wind waves, which is based on risk analysis theory and takes into account the uncertainties of floods, wind waves, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity of the spillway, is proposed and applied to the Chengbihe Reservoir in Baise City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The simulated results indicate that the flood control limiting level can be raised by 0.40 m under the condition that the reservoir overtopping risk is controlled within a mean variance of 5×10-6. As a result, the reservoir storage will increase to 16 million m3 and electrical energy generation and other functions of the reservoir will also increase greatly.
基金supported by the Marie Curie Research and Training Network "Mountain Risks" funded by the European Commission (2007–2010, Contract MCRTN-35098).
文摘andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step because it provides essential data upon which judgments can be made and policy can be formulated. This study aims at quantifying direct economic losses from debris flows at a medium scale in the study area in Italian Central Alps. Available hazard maps were the main inputs of this study. These maps were overlaid with information concerning elements at risk and their economic value. Then, a combination of both market and construction values was used to obtain estimates of future economic losses. As a result, two direct economic risk maps were prepared together with risk curves, useful to summarize expected monetary damage against the respective hazard probability. Afterwards, a qualitative risk map derived using a risk matrix officially provided by the set of laws issued by the regional government, was prepared. The results delimit areas of high economic as well as strategic importance which might be affected by debris flows in the future. Aside from limitations and inaccuracies inherently included in risk analysis process, identification of high risk areas allows local authorities to focus their attention on the “hot-spots”, where important consequences may arise and local （large） scale analysis needs to be performed with more precise cost-effectiveness ratio. The risk maps can be also used by the local authorities to increase population’s adaptive capacity in the disaster prevention process.
基金This project is funded bythe UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under Grant Refer-ences:GR/S85504 and GR/S85498
文摘This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks （ BNs）. In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. In order to use fuzzy information, an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors. The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge, and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation, modifying and maintaining a BN model. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking, or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness, vagueness and ignorance. This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. Specifically, the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values, but also the a-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Off-loading （FPSO） unit and the anthorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.
基金supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.201362030)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41106077 and 51379195)+3 种基金Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.R5110036)Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.ZR2013EEM034)Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting(Grant No.LOMF1101)SRF for ROCS,SEM
文摘Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering.
基金the Key Generalization Program of Science and Tech-nology Achievement of Water Resources Ministry of China(TG0608)
文摘Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater resources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of randomness,fuzziness,grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system.Based on fuzzy theory,a comprehensive evaluation model on groundwater resources carrying capacity is constructed with blind information.Then a risk assessment model of surcharge about groundwater resources carrying capacity is established on blind reliability theory.The probable value"*"matrix of fuzzy membership degree about carrying capacity corresponding to each judgment level can be obtained with the aid of blind algorithm as well as the subjective reliability"×"matrix.And then a graph of"groundwater carrying capacity v.s.accumulative reliability"can be gained Based on the graph,fuzzy membership degree of groundwater resources carrying capacity to each judgment level under different risk probability can be got.Thus,a comparatively reasonable judgment to groundwater resources carrying capacity might be obtained,with comprehensive analysis to the state of society,economy technology and ecology.
基金supported by the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry of the Ministry of Water Resources of China (Grant No. 201001007)
文摘Levees are affected by over-exploitation of river sand and river adjustments after the formation of sand pits. The slope stability is seriously threatened, drawing wide concern among experts and scholars in the area of water conservancy. This study analyzed the uncertainties of slope stability of levees under river sand mining conditions, including uncertainty caused by interest- driven over-exploitation by sand mining contractors, and uncertainty of the distance from the slope or sand pit to the bottom of the levee under the action of cross-flow force after the sand pit forms. Based on the results of uncertainty analysis, the distribution and related parameters of these uncertainties were estimated according to the Yangtze River sand mining practice. A risk model of the slope instability of a levee under river sand mining conditions was built, and the possibility of slope instability under different slope gradients in a certain reach of the Yangtze River was calculated with the Monte Carlo method and probability combination method. The results indicated that the probability of instability risk rose from 2.38% to 4.74% as the pits came into being.
