Fraudulent website is an important car-rier tool for telecom fraud.At present,criminals can use artificial intelligence generative content technol-ogy to quickly generate fraudulent website templates and build fraudul...Fraudulent website is an important car-rier tool for telecom fraud.At present,criminals can use artificial intelligence generative content technol-ogy to quickly generate fraudulent website templates and build fraudulent websites in batches.Accurate identification of fraudulent website will effectively re-duce the risk of public victimization.Therefore,this study developed a fraudulent website template iden-tification method based on DOM structure extraction of website fingerprint features,which solves the prob-lems of single-dimension identification,low accuracy,and the insufficient generalization ability of current fraudulent website templates.This method uses an im-proved SimHash algorithm to traverse the DOM tree of a webpage,extract website node features,calcu-late the weight of each node,and obtain the finger-print feature vector of the website through dimension-ality reduction.Finally,the random forest algorithm is used to optimize the training features for the best combination of parameters.This method automati-cally extracts fingerprint features from websites and identifies website template ownership based on these features.An experimental analysis showed that this method achieves a classification accuracy of 89.8%and demonstrates superior recognition.展开更多
Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a n...Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a new-style construction method, there are several specific risks involved in the construction process. Based on the test section of Sanyuanqiao station on Beijing metro line 10, and combined with the existing methods of risk identification at present, including a review of world-wide operational experience of similar projects, the study of generic guidance on hazards associated with the type of work being undertaken, and discussions with qualified and experienced staff from the project team, etc., the specific risks during the construction process of the metro station constructed by enlarging shield tunnels combined with the cut-and-cover method are identified. The results show that the specific risks mainly come from three construction processes which include constructing upper enclosure structures, excavating the soil between shield tunnels and demolishing shield segments. Then relevant risk mitigation measures are put forward. The results can provide references for scheme improvement and a comprehensive risk assessment of the new-style construction method.展开更多
Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of...Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.展开更多
The social transformation brought aboutby digital technology is deeply impacting various industries.Digital education products, with core technologiessuch as 5G, AI, IoT (Internet of Things),etc., are continuously pen...The social transformation brought aboutby digital technology is deeply impacting various industries.Digital education products, with core technologiessuch as 5G, AI, IoT (Internet of Things),etc., are continuously penetrating areas such as teaching,management, and evaluation. Apps, miniprograms,and emerging large-scale models are providingexcellent knowledge performance and flexiblecross-media output. However, they also exposerisks such as content discrimination and algorithmcommercialization. This paper conducts anevidence-based analysis of digital education productrisks from four dimensions: “digital resourcesinformationdissemination-algorithm design-cognitiveassessment”. It breaks through corresponding identificationtechnologies and, relying on the diverse characteristicsof governance systems, explores governancestrategies for digital education products from the threedomains of “regulators-developers-users”.展开更多
Aiming at the complexity of ecological environment risk of flood disaster, the life cycle of flood disaster is defined based on the relevant literatures, which is divided into incubation period, development period, ou...Aiming at the complexity of ecological environment risk of flood disaster, the life cycle of flood disaster is defined based on the relevant literatures, which is divided into incubation period, development period, outbreak period, recession period and extinction period. The characteristics of each period are analyzed. Further, the main risks for ecological environment faced at each stage under the life cycle of flood disaster are studied systematically to form the systematic ecological environment risk system for flood disaster.展开更多
There are many pressures on urban water systems in today＇s highly dynamic world. These include the diverse impacts that are summarized under the term ＂Global Change＂. At the same time, high demands on water utiliti...There are many pressures on urban water systems in today＇s highly dynamic world. These include the diverse impacts that are summarized under the term ＂Global Change＂. At the same time, high demands on water utilities to act sustainably do exist. For this purpose, the collaborative project ＂Sustainability Controlling for Urban Water Systems＂ （NaCoSi） introduces an innovative approach with which sustainability risks can be identified and controlled. The sustainability controlling is based on common process-oriented management systems. The starting point is a system of sustainability objectives, which were developed together with practice partners from the German water sector. A method for multidimensional risk identification is introduced to identify sustainability risks. Complex networks of cause-effect relationships are disaggregated into unbranched linear causal chains, which are managed as records in a risk database. The subsequent analysis of the risk database allows the examination of cross-linked risks. Severe risk factors, vulnerable processes and sustainability objectives can thereby be identified and subsequently analyzed. The sustainability controlling was successfully tested and improved by an iterative process of case studies in cooperation with practice partners. The results of the case studies demonstrate the benefit of the project＇s interdisciplinary approach and the applicability of the sustainability controlling.展开更多
Financial Accounting outsourcing in recent years has been the development of new outsourcing model with more and more enterprises management and CFOs of all ages. With the development of financial accounting outsourci...Financial Accounting outsourcing in recent years has been the development of new outsourcing model with more and more enterprises management and CFOs of all ages. With the development of financial accounting outsourcing services, it will lead to economic, social and development prospects that are also widely recognized. Not only small and medium companies are keen to own non-core financial accounting processes outsourced to agencies, large group has the entire basis of accounting processes tend to be outsourced to a qualified and experienced outsourcing service. Group companies or large multinationals are gradually re-integration of the financial sector, the basic financial accounting processes separate from the daily work out for outsourcing to focus resources on the development of core competencies.展开更多
Effective risk management is very important to increase the probability of success in software projects. Indeed, like other types of projects, software projects are also susceptible to various problems that can lead t...Effective risk management is very important to increase the probability of success in software projects. Indeed, like other types of projects, software projects are also susceptible to various problems that can lead to the cancelation of their development or to the development of systems that do not meet the client’s requirements. One of the main active- ties of risk management is the risk identification, because the list of risks generated in this activity is used all along the risk control process. Thus, this work proposes the creation of an expert system which is capable of identifying risks in software projects by using the lessons inductively learned from similar software projects already developed. By using this proposed expert system, project managers and software developers must be able to avoid errors of the past.展开更多
External disturbance is an important cause of underground pressure pipeline damage,which leads to accidents,and it is crucial to study the risk of damage caused by external disturbance and come up with proper preventi...External disturbance is an important cause of underground pressure pipeline damage,which leads to accidents,and it is crucial to study the risk of damage caused by external disturbance and come up with proper prevention and control measures.We reviewed literature on risk identification of underground pressure pipelines damage due to external disturbance was conducted,and a list of risk factors was formed.Based on the list of risk factors,fault tree analysis was carried out on underground pressure pipelines damage caused by external disturbances,and risk prevention and control measures were proposed through the calculation of minimum cut sets,minimum path sets,and structural importance,in hopes of providing reference for the normal operation of underground pressure pipelines.展开更多
The existence and development of TCM decoction pieces have a history of hundreds of years, which involves all aspects of human health care and prevention. At present, the state and society attach great importance to i...The existence and development of TCM decoction pieces have a history of hundreds of years, which involves all aspects of human health care and prevention. At present, the state and society attach great importance to its quality, and consumers and relevant supervision departments pay more and more attention to it. The quality management level of TCM decoction pieces has a direct impact on clinical efficacy, patient safety and the overall level of medical care in China's medical institutions. Therefore, for the health of patients and the quality of public medical care, it is necessary to strengthen the quality control of TCM decoction pieces. How to effectively control the quality of TCM decoction pieces is the key to ensure the safe and effective use of TCM decoction pieces, and reasonable control of the quality risk of TCM decoction pieces is the first effective risk discovery and risk identification.展开更多
Objective To study the current situation of supply chain management in pharmaceutical wholesale enterprises so that supply chain risks can be identified effectively.Methods Through the analysis of the actual situation...Objective To study the current situation of supply chain management in pharmaceutical wholesale enterprises so that supply chain risks can be identified effectively.Methods Through the analysis of the actual situation of enterprise A,combining with the supply chain problem of the enterprise,the enterprise supply chain risks were found out.Results and Conclusion With the development of pharmaceutical circulation industry,the competition among drug wholesalers has become increasingly fierce.For enterprises,the supply chain risks are increasing,and the traditional upstream and downstream supply risks are transformed into multiple-dimensional risks.The goal of carrying out supply chain risk identification in pharmaceutical wholesale enterprises is to enable key enterprises to discover and understand different types of risks in time so as to improve the management of supply chain.展开更多
Currently,the global carbon trading systems are fragmented and belong to different governments or are under the jurisdiction of different regions,resulting in a series of new problems,such as how to link dispersed tra...Currently,the global carbon trading systems are fragmented and belong to different governments or are under the jurisdiction of different regions,resulting in a series of new problems,such as how to link dispersed trading systems,how to compare the emission reduction of various markets and other issues.Since the development of the international carbon market is relatively immature with uncertain life expectancy and volatility during its short history,and there is a lack of quantitative data on the long-term record,the market could provide few risk management tools.Meanwhile,with the launches of China's regional carbon trading pilots in seven provinces since 2013 and combined with the national voluntary emission trading system,carbon trading will become an important mechanism for China in achieving its emission reduction target.In the first stage,the carbon finance market is at least faced with mechanism design risks,market supply risks and compliance risks.Therefore,to secure the development of the carbon market and for public interest,relevant government departments of China should identify the risks facing the market and should make the basic principles and goals,such as ensuring effective trading and pricing mechanisms to avoid fraud and price manipulation,and balancing transparency and confidentiality of information.Consequently,the governments should develop a comprehensive carbon finance regulatory system covering regulatory legislation,regulatory institutions and their authorities,regulatory scope as well as regulatory objects.展开更多
During the transient process of gas drilling conditions,the monitoring data often has obvious nonlinear fluctuation features,which leads to large classification errors and time delays in the commonly used intelligent ...During the transient process of gas drilling conditions,the monitoring data often has obvious nonlinear fluctuation features,which leads to large classification errors and time delays in the commonly used intelligent classification models.Combined with the structural features of data samples obtained from monitoring while drilling,this paper uses convolution algorithm to extract the correlation features of multiple monitoring while drilling parameters changing with time,and applies RBF network with nonlinear classification ability to classify the features.In the training process,the loss function component based on distance mean square error is used to effectively adjust the best clustering center in RBF.Many field applications show that,the recognition accuracy of the above nonlinear classification network model for gas production,water production and drill sticking is 97.32%,95.25%and 93.78%.Compared with the traditional convolutional neural network(CNN)model,the network structure not only improves the classification accuracy of conditions in the transition stage of conditions,but also greatly advances the time points of risk identification,especially for the three common risk identification points of gas production,water production and drill sticking,which are advanced by 56,16 and 8 s.It has won valuable time for the site to take correct risk disposal measures in time,and fully demonstrated the applicability of nonlinear classification neural network in oil and gas field exploration and development.展开更多
The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identi...The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.展开更多
In order to understand the current research status and development direction of driving risk identification at home and abroad,relevant literatures in the field of driving risk identification from the China National K...In order to understand the current research status and development direction of driving risk identification at home and abroad,relevant literatures in the field of driving risk identification from the China National Knowledge Infra-structure(CNKI)and Web of Science(WOS)in recent 12 years(2011-2022)were selected as research samples,and literature metrology tools VOSviewer and Citespace were used for visual analysis.The situation was analyzed from the aspects of chronological distribution,national cooperation network,distribution of domestic institutions,journal performance and keywords overview,literature coupling clustering and research hotspots.The results show that the number of published papers fluctuates year by year,and China,the United States and Germany have the largest number of published papers.The United States is at the center of international cooperation.The CNKI shows that universities in China such as Chang’an University and Chongqing Jiaotong University have published a large number of documents.According to the statistics of WOS,Accident Analysis&Prevention is the most widely published journal in the world.The average level of the journal is high and the quality of articles is better.Combining the research contents of CNKI and WOS,the main research directions can be clustered into five cluster themes by using the coupling function in VOSviewer,including driving risk assessment considering driver factors,the influence of driving environment on driving risk,driving risk assessment considering multi-source characteristic data,multiaspect research on driving risk and risk identification of non-traditional vehicles in specific scenarios.Human-machine co-driving,artificial intelligence,intelligent driving,risk identification and natural driving are the current research hotspots and the future research trends.展开更多
In view of the shortcomings of current intelligent drilling technology in drilling condition representation, sample collection, data processing and feature extraction, an intelligent identification method of safety ri...In view of the shortcomings of current intelligent drilling technology in drilling condition representation, sample collection, data processing and feature extraction, an intelligent identification method of safety risk while drilling was established. The correlation analysis method was used to determine correlation parameters indicating gas drilling safety risk. By collecting monitoring data in the safety risk period of more than 20 wells, a sample database of a variety of safety risks in gas drilling was established, and the number of samples was expanded by using the method of few-shot learning. According to the forms of gas drilling monitoring data samples, a two-layer convolution neural network architecture was designed, and multiple convolution cores of different sizes and weights were set to realize the vertical and horizontal convolution computations of samples to extract and learn the variation law and correlation characteristics of multiple monitoring parameters. Finally, based on the training results of neural network, samples of different kinds of safety risks were selected to enhance the recognition accuracy. Compared with the traditional BP(error back propagation) full-connected neural network architecture, this method can more deeply and effectively identify safety risk characteristics in gas drilling, and thus identify and predict risks in advance, which is conducive to avoid and quickly solve safety risks while drilling. Field application has proved that this method has an identification accuracy of various safety risks while drilling in the process of gas drilling of about 90% and is practical.展开更多
Deepwater oilfields will become main sources of the world's oil and gas production.It is characterized with high technology,huge investment,long duration,high risk and high profit.It is a huge system project,inclu...Deepwater oilfields will become main sources of the world's oil and gas production.It is characterized with high technology,huge investment,long duration,high risk and high profit.It is a huge system project,including exploration and appraising,field development plan(FDP)design,implementation,reservoir management and optimization.Actually,limited data,international environment and oil price will cause much uncertainty for FDP design and production management.Any unreasonable decision will cause huge loss.Thus,risk foreseeing and mitigation strategies become more important.This paper takes AKPO and EGINA as examples to analyze the main uncertainties,proposes mitigation strategies,and provides valuable experiences for the other deepwater oilfields development.展开更多
ldentifying risks and prioritizing is important for payment service provider(PSP)companies to get banking projects and gain more market share.However,studies regarding the identification of risks and causal relationsh...ldentifying risks and prioritizing is important for payment service provider(PSP)companies to get banking projects and gain more market share.However,studies regarding the identification of risks and causal relationships are insufficient in the lranian PSP industry and the industry is unique because of its characteristics.In this study,30 experts involved with PSP companies are employed as the research sample.Eleven key risks and 46 sub-risks are also ientified.Subsequently,the fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory technique is applied to determine the effective and affected risks and the severity of their effects on each other.Finally,all risks are ranked.Due to the interal interrelationships of the main risks,the weight of each risk is calculated via the fuzy analytic network process.As the second-level risks have no significant interrelationships,they are ranked via the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process.Moreover,the best-worst method is used to ensure that the obtained rankings are reliable.This study identifies the risks affecting the loss of banking projects and determines the impacts of these risks on each.A sensitivity analysis is then conducted on the weights of the criteria,and the results are compared.展开更多
This thesis presents solutions to settlement risk identification and control in EPC contract performance in Indonesia from the perspective of international contractor.
基金This research is a phased achievement of The National Social Science Fund of China(23BGL272).
文摘Fraudulent website is an important car-rier tool for telecom fraud.At present,criminals can use artificial intelligence generative content technol-ogy to quickly generate fraudulent website templates and build fraudulent websites in batches.Accurate identification of fraudulent website will effectively re-duce the risk of public victimization.Therefore,this study developed a fraudulent website template iden-tification method based on DOM structure extraction of website fingerprint features,which solves the prob-lems of single-dimension identification,low accuracy,and the insufficient generalization ability of current fraudulent website templates.This method uses an im-proved SimHash algorithm to traverse the DOM tree of a webpage,extract website node features,calcu-late the weight of each node,and obtain the finger-print feature vector of the website through dimension-ality reduction.Finally,the random forest algorithm is used to optimize the training features for the best combination of parameters.This method automati-cally extracts fingerprint features from websites and identifies website template ownership based on these features.An experimental analysis showed that this method achieves a classification accuracy of 89.8%and demonstrates superior recognition.
基金Beijing Science and Technology Planning Project(No.D0604003040921)
文摘Constructing a metro station by enlarging shield tunnels combined with a mining/cut-and-cover method provides a new method to solve the contradictions of construction time limits of shield tunnels and stations. As a new-style construction method, there are several specific risks involved in the construction process. Based on the test section of Sanyuanqiao station on Beijing metro line 10, and combined with the existing methods of risk identification at present, including a review of world-wide operational experience of similar projects, the study of generic guidance on hazards associated with the type of work being undertaken, and discussions with qualified and experienced staff from the project team, etc., the specific risks during the construction process of the metro station constructed by enlarging shield tunnels combined with the cut-and-cover method are identified. The results show that the specific risks mainly come from three construction processes which include constructing upper enclosure structures, excavating the soil between shield tunnels and demolishing shield segments. Then relevant risk mitigation measures are put forward. The results can provide references for scheme improvement and a comprehensive risk assessment of the new-style construction method.
文摘Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.
基金supported by the 2022 National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62277002)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3303500).
文摘The social transformation brought aboutby digital technology is deeply impacting various industries.Digital education products, with core technologiessuch as 5G, AI, IoT (Internet of Things),etc., are continuously penetrating areas such as teaching,management, and evaluation. Apps, miniprograms,and emerging large-scale models are providingexcellent knowledge performance and flexiblecross-media output. However, they also exposerisks such as content discrimination and algorithmcommercialization. This paper conducts anevidence-based analysis of digital education productrisks from four dimensions: “digital resourcesinformationdissemination-algorithm design-cognitiveassessment”. It breaks through corresponding identificationtechnologies and, relying on the diverse characteristicsof governance systems, explores governancestrategies for digital education products from the threedomains of “regulators-developers-users”.
基金Supported by Key Project for Social Science Foundation in China(12AZD109)Natural Science Foundation in China(71171202)
文摘Aiming at the complexity of ecological environment risk of flood disaster, the life cycle of flood disaster is defined based on the relevant literatures, which is divided into incubation period, development period, outbreak period, recession period and extinction period. The characteristics of each period are analyzed. Further, the main risks for ecological environment faced at each stage under the life cycle of flood disaster are studied systematically to form the systematic ecological environment risk system for flood disaster.
文摘There are many pressures on urban water systems in today＇s highly dynamic world. These include the diverse impacts that are summarized under the term ＂Global Change＂. At the same time, high demands on water utilities to act sustainably do exist. For this purpose, the collaborative project ＂Sustainability Controlling for Urban Water Systems＂ （NaCoSi） introduces an innovative approach with which sustainability risks can be identified and controlled. The sustainability controlling is based on common process-oriented management systems. The starting point is a system of sustainability objectives, which were developed together with practice partners from the German water sector. A method for multidimensional risk identification is introduced to identify sustainability risks. Complex networks of cause-effect relationships are disaggregated into unbranched linear causal chains, which are managed as records in a risk database. The subsequent analysis of the risk database allows the examination of cross-linked risks. Severe risk factors, vulnerable processes and sustainability objectives can thereby be identified and subsequently analyzed. The sustainability controlling was successfully tested and improved by an iterative process of case studies in cooperation with practice partners. The results of the case studies demonstrate the benefit of the project＇s interdisciplinary approach and the applicability of the sustainability controlling.
文摘Financial Accounting outsourcing in recent years has been the development of new outsourcing model with more and more enterprises management and CFOs of all ages. With the development of financial accounting outsourcing services, it will lead to economic, social and development prospects that are also widely recognized. Not only small and medium companies are keen to own non-core financial accounting processes outsourced to agencies, large group has the entire basis of accounting processes tend to be outsourced to a qualified and experienced outsourcing service. Group companies or large multinationals are gradually re-integration of the financial sector, the basic financial accounting processes separate from the daily work out for outsourcing to focus resources on the development of core competencies.
文摘Effective risk management is very important to increase the probability of success in software projects. Indeed, like other types of projects, software projects are also susceptible to various problems that can lead to the cancelation of their development or to the development of systems that do not meet the client’s requirements. One of the main active- ties of risk management is the risk identification, because the list of risks generated in this activity is used all along the risk control process. Thus, this work proposes the creation of an expert system which is capable of identifying risks in software projects by using the lessons inductively learned from similar software projects already developed. By using this proposed expert system, project managers and software developers must be able to avoid errors of the past.
基金This project was funded by Consulting Research Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering:Research on Innovative Development Strategy of Urban Safety Engineering(Project number:2020-02)。
文摘External disturbance is an important cause of underground pressure pipeline damage,which leads to accidents,and it is crucial to study the risk of damage caused by external disturbance and come up with proper prevention and control measures.We reviewed literature on risk identification of underground pressure pipelines damage due to external disturbance was conducted,and a list of risk factors was formed.Based on the list of risk factors,fault tree analysis was carried out on underground pressure pipelines damage caused by external disturbances,and risk prevention and control measures were proposed through the calculation of minimum cut sets,minimum path sets,and structural importance,in hopes of providing reference for the normal operation of underground pressure pipelines.
文摘The existence and development of TCM decoction pieces have a history of hundreds of years, which involves all aspects of human health care and prevention. At present, the state and society attach great importance to its quality, and consumers and relevant supervision departments pay more and more attention to it. The quality management level of TCM decoction pieces has a direct impact on clinical efficacy, patient safety and the overall level of medical care in China's medical institutions. Therefore, for the health of patients and the quality of public medical care, it is necessary to strengthen the quality control of TCM decoction pieces. How to effectively control the quality of TCM decoction pieces is the key to ensure the safe and effective use of TCM decoction pieces, and reasonable control of the quality risk of TCM decoction pieces is the first effective risk discovery and risk identification.
文摘Objective To study the current situation of supply chain management in pharmaceutical wholesale enterprises so that supply chain risks can be identified effectively.Methods Through the analysis of the actual situation of enterprise A,combining with the supply chain problem of the enterprise,the enterprise supply chain risks were found out.Results and Conclusion With the development of pharmaceutical circulation industry,the competition among drug wholesalers has become increasingly fierce.For enterprises,the supply chain risks are increasing,and the traditional upstream and downstream supply risks are transformed into multiple-dimensional risks.The goal of carrying out supply chain risk identification in pharmaceutical wholesale enterprises is to enable key enterprises to discover and understand different types of risks in time so as to improve the management of supply chain.
基金supported by National Social Science Fund project"The study of carbon finance mechanisms supporting the development of low-carbon economy"[grant number10CJY076]Beijing Philosophy and Social Science Project"The market pricing mechanism and price management strategy of carbon emission in Beijing"[grant number 13JGC068]+2 种基金National Science&Technology Pillar Program"The research of key support policies and techniques in green low-carbon development in China"[grant number 2012BAC20B08]grant project from China Clean Development Mechanism Fund in the Ministry of Finance:"The study of financing,strategies,mechanism and policy system addressing climate change in China"[grant number 2012064]the project of research innovation teams in Central University of Finance and Economics and China Financial Development Collaborative Innovation Center
文摘Currently,the global carbon trading systems are fragmented and belong to different governments or are under the jurisdiction of different regions,resulting in a series of new problems,such as how to link dispersed trading systems,how to compare the emission reduction of various markets and other issues.Since the development of the international carbon market is relatively immature with uncertain life expectancy and volatility during its short history,and there is a lack of quantitative data on the long-term record,the market could provide few risk management tools.Meanwhile,with the launches of China's regional carbon trading pilots in seven provinces since 2013 and combined with the national voluntary emission trading system,carbon trading will become an important mechanism for China in achieving its emission reduction target.In the first stage,the carbon finance market is at least faced with mechanism design risks,market supply risks and compliance risks.Therefore,to secure the development of the carbon market and for public interest,relevant government departments of China should identify the risks facing the market and should make the basic principles and goals,such as ensuring effective trading and pricing mechanisms to avoid fraud and price manipulation,and balancing transparency and confidentiality of information.Consequently,the governments should develop a comprehensive carbon finance regulatory system covering regulatory legislation,regulatory institutions and their authorities,regulatory scope as well as regulatory objects.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2019YFA0708303)the Sichuan Science and Technology Program(2021YFG0318)+2 种基金the Engineering Technology Joint Research Institute Project of CCDC-SWPU(CQXN-2021-03)the PetroChina Innovation Foundation(2020D-5007-0312)the Key projects of NSFC(61731016).
文摘During the transient process of gas drilling conditions,the monitoring data often has obvious nonlinear fluctuation features,which leads to large classification errors and time delays in the commonly used intelligent classification models.Combined with the structural features of data samples obtained from monitoring while drilling,this paper uses convolution algorithm to extract the correlation features of multiple monitoring while drilling parameters changing with time,and applies RBF network with nonlinear classification ability to classify the features.In the training process,the loss function component based on distance mean square error is used to effectively adjust the best clustering center in RBF.Many field applications show that,the recognition accuracy of the above nonlinear classification network model for gas production,water production and drill sticking is 97.32%,95.25%and 93.78%.Compared with the traditional convolutional neural network(CNN)model,the network structure not only improves the classification accuracy of conditions in the transition stage of conditions,but also greatly advances the time points of risk identification,especially for the three common risk identification points of gas production,water production and drill sticking,which are advanced by 56,16 and 8 s.It has won valuable time for the site to take correct risk disposal measures in time,and fully demonstrated the applicability of nonlinear classification neural network in oil and gas field exploration and development.
基金Under the auspices of National Science & Technology Pillar Program During the 11th Five-Year Plan Period (No 2006BAD20B05)
文摘The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.51905224。
文摘In order to understand the current research status and development direction of driving risk identification at home and abroad,relevant literatures in the field of driving risk identification from the China National Knowledge Infra-structure(CNKI)and Web of Science(WOS)in recent 12 years(2011-2022)were selected as research samples,and literature metrology tools VOSviewer and Citespace were used for visual analysis.The situation was analyzed from the aspects of chronological distribution,national cooperation network,distribution of domestic institutions,journal performance and keywords overview,literature coupling clustering and research hotspots.The results show that the number of published papers fluctuates year by year,and China,the United States and Germany have the largest number of published papers.The United States is at the center of international cooperation.The CNKI shows that universities in China such as Chang’an University and Chongqing Jiaotong University have published a large number of documents.According to the statistics of WOS,Accident Analysis&Prevention is the most widely published journal in the world.The average level of the journal is high and the quality of articles is better.Combining the research contents of CNKI and WOS,the main research directions can be clustered into five cluster themes by using the coupling function in VOSviewer,including driving risk assessment considering driver factors,the influence of driving environment on driving risk,driving risk assessment considering multi-source characteristic data,multiaspect research on driving risk and risk identification of non-traditional vehicles in specific scenarios.Human-machine co-driving,artificial intelligence,intelligent driving,risk identification and natural driving are the current research hotspots and the future research trends.
基金Supported by National Key R&D Plan (2019YFA0708303)Key R&D Projects of Sichuan Science and Technology Plan (2021YFG0318)Key Projects of NSFC (61731016)。
文摘In view of the shortcomings of current intelligent drilling technology in drilling condition representation, sample collection, data processing and feature extraction, an intelligent identification method of safety risk while drilling was established. The correlation analysis method was used to determine correlation parameters indicating gas drilling safety risk. By collecting monitoring data in the safety risk period of more than 20 wells, a sample database of a variety of safety risks in gas drilling was established, and the number of samples was expanded by using the method of few-shot learning. According to the forms of gas drilling monitoring data samples, a two-layer convolution neural network architecture was designed, and multiple convolution cores of different sizes and weights were set to realize the vertical and horizontal convolution computations of samples to extract and learn the variation law and correlation characteristics of multiple monitoring parameters. Finally, based on the training results of neural network, samples of different kinds of safety risks were selected to enhance the recognition accuracy. Compared with the traditional BP(error back propagation) full-connected neural network architecture, this method can more deeply and effectively identify safety risk characteristics in gas drilling, and thus identify and predict risks in advance, which is conducive to avoid and quickly solve safety risks while drilling. Field application has proved that this method has an identification accuracy of various safety risks while drilling in the process of gas drilling of about 90% and is practical.
文摘Deepwater oilfields will become main sources of the world's oil and gas production.It is characterized with high technology,huge investment,long duration,high risk and high profit.It is a huge system project,including exploration and appraising,field development plan(FDP)design,implementation,reservoir management and optimization.Actually,limited data,international environment and oil price will cause much uncertainty for FDP design and production management.Any unreasonable decision will cause huge loss.Thus,risk foreseeing and mitigation strategies become more important.This paper takes AKPO and EGINA as examples to analyze the main uncertainties,proposes mitigation strategies,and provides valuable experiences for the other deepwater oilfields development.
文摘ldentifying risks and prioritizing is important for payment service provider(PSP)companies to get banking projects and gain more market share.However,studies regarding the identification of risks and causal relationships are insufficient in the lranian PSP industry and the industry is unique because of its characteristics.In this study,30 experts involved with PSP companies are employed as the research sample.Eleven key risks and 46 sub-risks are also ientified.Subsequently,the fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory technique is applied to determine the effective and affected risks and the severity of their effects on each other.Finally,all risks are ranked.Due to the interal interrelationships of the main risks,the weight of each risk is calculated via the fuzy analytic network process.As the second-level risks have no significant interrelationships,they are ranked via the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process.Moreover,the best-worst method is used to ensure that the obtained rankings are reliable.This study identifies the risks affecting the loss of banking projects and determines the impacts of these risks on each.A sensitivity analysis is then conducted on the weights of the criteria,and the results are compared.
文摘This thesis presents solutions to settlement risk identification and control in EPC contract performance in Indonesia from the perspective of international contractor.
