Based on the panel data, we analyze the US commercial banks＇ CRT. According to the study, we find that the introduction of CRT will increase the level of banks＇ liquid risk. The performance of bank mainly is that it...Based on the panel data, we analyze the US commercial banks＇ CRT. According to the study, we find that the introduction of CRT will increase the level of banks＇ liquid risk. The performance of bank mainly is that its supervision and review of risk will drop, based on the impact of asymmetric information, commercial Banks transfer the bad loans to investors. Through the analysis we can see that after the transfer of credit risk in commercial bank did not increase income and reduce risk. Because commercial Banks can extend more bad loans to expand its lending scale, and bad loans will increase the bank overall risk.展开更多
This study explores risk transfer options that precarious and marginal urban communities could use to protect themselves from future damages and losses generated by socio-natural hazards and disasters at the individua...This study explores risk transfer options that precarious and marginal urban communities could use to protect themselves from future damages and losses generated by socio-natural hazards and disasters at the individual and community levels. The design is framed within an evidence-based disaster risk reduction(DRR) strategy and follows the case study research approach. We analyze the2018 Neighborhood Approach for DRR programming evaluation carried out in four Latin American cities’ informal settlements and review relevant risk transfer experiences aimed at vulnerable populations. We calculate the pure risk premium for the four cases selected, using a previous catastrophe risk assessment for earthquakes and landslides. We propose three risk transfer options based on our analysis:(1) voluntary collective insurance;(2) structural reinforcement with a comprehensive housing insurance;and(3) hybrid parametric insurance. Risk transfer mechanisms conventionally focus on residual risk management. Here, due to the precariousness of the analyzed urban settings, the proposed alternatives go beyond the management of just residual risk to positively impact the beneficiaries’ quality of life and the reduction of the built environment’s physical vulnerability in the short and medium terms. Our study proposes a prospective estimation of future risk despite the limitations of data availability. This study opens a window to new approaches and proposes a systematic process to design DRR policy aimed at the poor and vulnerable strata of society.展开更多
Personal credit risk assessment is an important part of the development of financial enterprises. Big data credit investigation is an inevitable trend of personal credit risk assessment, but some data are missing and ...Personal credit risk assessment is an important part of the development of financial enterprises. Big data credit investigation is an inevitable trend of personal credit risk assessment, but some data are missing and the amount of data is small, so it is difficult to train. At the same time, for different financial platforms, we need to use different models to train according to the characteristics of the current samples, which is time-consuming. <span style="font-family:Verdana;">In view of</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> these two problems, this paper uses the idea of transfer learning to build a transferable personal credit risk model based on Instance-based Transfer Learning (Instance-based TL). The model balances the weight of the samples in the source domain, and migrates the existing large dataset samples to the target domain of small samples, and finds out the commonness between them. At the same time, we have done a lot of experiments on the selection of base learners, including traditional machine learning algorithms and ensemble learning algorithms, such as decision tree, logistic regression, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">xgboost</span> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">and</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> so on. The datasets are from P2P platform and bank, the results show that the AUC value of Instance-based TL is 24% higher than that of the traditional machine learning model, which fully proves that the model in this paper has good application value. The model’s evaluation uses AUC, prediction, recall, F1. These criteria prove that this model has good application value from many aspects. At present, we are trying to apply this model to more fields to improve the robustness and applicability of the model;on the other hand, we are trying to do more in-depth research on domain adaptation to enrich the model.</span>展开更多
The activity concentrations of radionuclides, absorbed dose rate, excess lifetime cancer risk, and soil-to-plant transfer factor have been evaluated in soil and crop samples from Jalingo and Wukari Local Government Ar...The activity concentrations of radionuclides, absorbed dose rate, excess lifetime cancer risk, and soil-to-plant transfer factor have been evaluated in soil and crop samples from Jalingo and Wukari Local Government Area of Taraba State, Nigeria. The activity concentrations were determined with the aid of High Purity Germanium detector. The absorbed dose and excess lifetime cancer risk were evaluated and forecasted for 60 years using the ResRad off-site model. The average activity concentration of <sup>40</sup>K, <sup>232</sup>Th, and <sup>238</sup>U in the soil samples were 633.13, 141.15, and 71.20 Bq·kg<sup>-1</sup> respectively, for the Jalingo study area, and while that of the Wukari study area was;199.21, 87.23, and 25.37 Bq·kg<sup>-1</sup> respectively. The average soil-to-plant transfer factors for <sup>40</sup>K, <sup>232</sup>Th, and <sup>238</sup>U were 0.51, 0.10, and 0.27 respectively for the Jalingo study area while that of Wukari are 0.40, 0.57, and 0.74 respectively. The mean annual effective dose equivalent for the study area is higher than the world average of 0.07 mS·vy<sup>-1</sup>. The excess lifetime cancer risk for the study areas has values that are higher than the safety limit. The ResRed model showed that direct radiation from the crops is the major contributor to excess cancer risk among other pathways. The radiological hazard indices reveal health risks to farmers, especially in the Jalingo area.展开更多
As a variant index, variation has an inherent shortcoming that it can only reflect the static fluctuation of the crop. This paper makes complementary analysis about it on the basis of the comment on Miranda＇s approac...As a variant index, variation has an inherent shortcoming that it can only reflect the static fluctuation of the crop. This paper makes complementary analysis about it on the basis of the comment on Miranda＇s approach of β index and goes on to analyze the β index approach under the condition of three kinds of crop insurance plans, β index approach has the advantage that it can dynamically reflect the risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan. At the same insurance level, the smaller the β index is, the better the corresponding risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan is; And vice versa.展开更多
The possible health risks of heavy metals contamination to local population through food chain were evaluated in Beijing and Tianjin city cluster, China, where have a long history of sewage irrigation. The transfer fa...The possible health risks of heavy metals contamination to local population through food chain were evaluated in Beijing and Tianjin city cluster, China, where have a long history of sewage irrigation. The transfer factors （TF） for heavy metals from soil to vegetables for six elements including Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, As and Cd were calculated and the pollution load indexes （PLI） were also assessed. Results indicate that only Cd exceeded the maximum acceptable limit in these sites. So far, the heavy metal concentrations in soils and vegetables were all below the permissible limits set by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China and World Health Organization. The transfer factors of six heavy metals showed the trend as Cd 〉 Zn 〉 Cu 〉 Pb 〉 As 〉 Cr, which were dependent on the vegetable species. The estimated dietary intakes of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, As and Cd were far below the tolerable limits and the target hazard quotient （THQ） values were less than 1, which suggested that the health risks of heavy metals exposure through consuming vegetables were generally assumed to be safe.展开更多
Contamination of soil and agricultural products by heavy metals resulting from rapid industrial development has caused major concern. In this study, we investigated heavy metal （Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Hg and Cd） concentrat...Contamination of soil and agricultural products by heavy metals resulting from rapid industrial development has caused major concern. In this study, we investigated heavy metal （Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Hg and Cd） concentrations in rice and garden vegetables, as well as in cultivated soils, in a rural-industrial developed region in southern Jiangsu, China, and estimated the potential health risks of metals to the inhabitants via consumption of locally produced rice and garden vegetables. A questionnaire-based survey on dietary consumption rates of foodstuffs showed that rice and vegetables accounted for 64% of total foodstuffs consumed, and over 60% of rice and vegetables were grown in the local region. Average concentrations of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, Hg and Pb were 0.75, 2.64, 12.00, 0.014, 0.006 and 0.054 mg/kg dw （dry weight） in rice and were 0.67, 1.18, 4.34, 0.011, 0.002 and 0.058 mg/kg fw （fresh weight） in garden vegetables, respectively. These values were all below the maximum allowable concentration in food in China except for Cr in vegetables. Leafy vegetables had higher metal concentrations than solanaceae vegetables. Average daily intake of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, Hg and Pb through the consumption of rice and garden vegetables were 5.66, 16.90, 74.21, 0.10, 0.04 and 0.43 μg/（kg·day）, respectively. Although Hazard Quotient values of individual metals were all lower than 1, when all six metal intakes via self-planted rice and garden vegetables were combined, the Hazard Index value was close to 1. Potential health risks from exposure to heavy metals in self-planted rice and garden vegetables need more attention.展开更多
Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is one of the most common acute and critical illnesses in general wards and intensive care units. Its high morbidity and high fatality rate have become a major global public health problem. T...Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is one of the most common acute and critical illnesses in general wards and intensive care units. Its high morbidity and high fatality rate have become a major global public health problem. There are often serious lags in clinical diagnosis of AKI. Early diagnosis and timely intervention and effective care become critical. The use of electronic medical record data to build an AKI risk prediction model has been proven to help prevent the occurrence of AKI. However, in actual clinical applications, the distribution of historical data and new data will continue to vary over time, resulting in a significant decrease in the performance of the model. How to solve the problem of model performance degradation over time will be a core challenge for the long-term use of predictive models in clinical applications. Aiming at the above problems, this paper studies the classic Transfer-Stacking model migration algorithm. Aiming at the lack of this algorithm, such as the loss of a large amount of feature information of the target domain and poor fit when integrating the model of the target domain, the Accumulate-Transfer-Stacking algorithm is proposed to improve it. Improvements include: 1) Optimize the input vector and model integration algorithm of Transfer-Stacking’s target domain model. 2) Optimize Transfer-Stacking from a single-source domain model to a multi-source domain model. The experimental results show that for the improved algorithm proposed in this paper when the data is sufficient and insufficient, the average AUC value of the model on the data of subsequent years is 0.89 and 0.87, and the average F1 Score value is 0.45 and 0.36. Moreover, this method is significantly better than the unimproved Transfer-Stacking algorithm and baseline method, and can effectively overcome the problem of data distribution heterogeneity caused by time factors.展开更多
At present,further research and exploration on credit risks are being carried out in the global field,and increasingly profound modem credit risks are exposed to the bond market.This requires that we cannot ignore the...At present,further research and exploration on credit risks are being carried out in the global field,and increasingly profound modem credit risks are exposed to the bond market.This requires that we cannot ignore the impact of credit rating migration risk on bond pricing,so as to adapt to the sustainable and healthy development of the bond market under the new normal of China's economy.The innovation point of this paper is to try to analyze the pricing of Convertible bonds in China from the perspective of credit rating migration risk.Tsiveriotis and Femandes(1998)model is selected,and the credit risk in the model is assumed to be caused by the credit rating migration risk,and the credit spread is used to measure the credit rating migration risk.The research conclusion of this paper is as follows:First,it is valid to consider the risk of credit rating migration in the TF(1998)model.The market price of convertible bonds is on average 1.22% higher 1han the theoretical value of the model.In general,the theoretical value obtained from the model has little deviation from the market price,and has a good fitting degree.Second,from the Angle of credit rating,the selection of 32 samples of convertible bonds only empirical research shows that the credit rating of AA-convertible bonds average deviation rate is negative,suggest that the credit rating of AA-the phenomenon of convertible bonds value is underestimated,and AAA credit rating to AA,AA+,the average deviation rate of convertible bonds is positive,that credit rating AA(containing AA)more convertible bond value is overrated phenomenon,and the higher the credit rating of the average deviation rate of convertible bond,the greater the overvalued levels.It has certain guiding significance for participants in the convertible bond market.展开更多
After Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake occurred, the rearrangement of stresses in the crust commonly leads to subsequent damaging earthquakes. We present the calculations of the coseismic stress changes that resulted from the ...After Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake occurred, the rearrangement of stresses in the crust commonly leads to subsequent damaging earthquakes. We present the calculations of the coseismic stress changes that resulted from the 25th April event using models of regional faults designed according to south Tibet-Nepal structure, and show that some indicative significant stress increases. We calculate static stress changes caused by the displacement of a fault on which dislocations happen and an earthquake occurs. A Mw 7.3 earthquake broke on 12 May at a distance of - 130 km SEE of the Mw 7.8 earthquake, whose focus roughly located on high Coulomb stress change （CSC） site. Aftershocks （first 15 days after the mainshock） are associated with stress increase zone caused by the main rupture. We set receiver faults with specified strikes, dips, and rakes, on which the stresses imparted by the source fault are resolved. Four group normal faults to the north of the Nepal earthquake seismogenic fault were set as receiver faults and variant results followed. We provide a discussion on Coulomb stress transfer for the seismogenic fault, which is useful to identify potential future rupture zones.展开更多
To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected an...To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected and determined before and after water delivery in different hydrological seasons. Then, comprehensive pollution index method, comprehensive nutrition state index method and health risk assessment model were utilized to evaluate the quality, nutrition, and health risk of Dongping Lake water. Results showed that the quality of Dongping Lake water still met level Ⅲ (light pollution) no matter before or after water delivery. The nutrition state was improved from light eutropher before water delivery to mesotropher after water delivery. The health risk level was reduced from high-medium before water delivery to medium level after water delivery. In summary, the operation of the eastern route of South-North Water Transfer Project is beneficial for water environment improvement of Dongping Lake.展开更多
文摘Based on the panel data, we analyze the US commercial banks＇ CRT. According to the study, we find that the introduction of CRT will increase the level of banks＇ liquid risk. The performance of bank mainly is that its supervision and review of risk will drop, based on the impact of asymmetric information, commercial Banks transfer the bad loans to investors. Through the analysis we can see that after the transfer of credit risk in commercial bank did not increase income and reduce risk. Because commercial Banks can extend more bad loans to expand its lending scale, and bad loans will increase the bank overall risk.
基金supported by USAID/OFDA under Cooperative Agreement # AID-OFDA-A-16-00019 with Florida International University.
文摘This study explores risk transfer options that precarious and marginal urban communities could use to protect themselves from future damages and losses generated by socio-natural hazards and disasters at the individual and community levels. The design is framed within an evidence-based disaster risk reduction(DRR) strategy and follows the case study research approach. We analyze the2018 Neighborhood Approach for DRR programming evaluation carried out in four Latin American cities’ informal settlements and review relevant risk transfer experiences aimed at vulnerable populations. We calculate the pure risk premium for the four cases selected, using a previous catastrophe risk assessment for earthquakes and landslides. We propose three risk transfer options based on our analysis:(1) voluntary collective insurance;(2) structural reinforcement with a comprehensive housing insurance;and(3) hybrid parametric insurance. Risk transfer mechanisms conventionally focus on residual risk management. Here, due to the precariousness of the analyzed urban settings, the proposed alternatives go beyond the management of just residual risk to positively impact the beneficiaries’ quality of life and the reduction of the built environment’s physical vulnerability in the short and medium terms. Our study proposes a prospective estimation of future risk despite the limitations of data availability. This study opens a window to new approaches and proposes a systematic process to design DRR policy aimed at the poor and vulnerable strata of society.
文摘Personal credit risk assessment is an important part of the development of financial enterprises. Big data credit investigation is an inevitable trend of personal credit risk assessment, but some data are missing and the amount of data is small, so it is difficult to train. At the same time, for different financial platforms, we need to use different models to train according to the characteristics of the current samples, which is time-consuming. <span style="font-family:Verdana;">In view of</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> these two problems, this paper uses the idea of transfer learning to build a transferable personal credit risk model based on Instance-based Transfer Learning (Instance-based TL). The model balances the weight of the samples in the source domain, and migrates the existing large dataset samples to the target domain of small samples, and finds out the commonness between them. At the same time, we have done a lot of experiments on the selection of base learners, including traditional machine learning algorithms and ensemble learning algorithms, such as decision tree, logistic regression, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">xgboost</span> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">and</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> so on. The datasets are from P2P platform and bank, the results show that the AUC value of Instance-based TL is 24% higher than that of the traditional machine learning model, which fully proves that the model in this paper has good application value. The model’s evaluation uses AUC, prediction, recall, F1. These criteria prove that this model has good application value from many aspects. At present, we are trying to apply this model to more fields to improve the robustness and applicability of the model;on the other hand, we are trying to do more in-depth research on domain adaptation to enrich the model.</span>
文摘The activity concentrations of radionuclides, absorbed dose rate, excess lifetime cancer risk, and soil-to-plant transfer factor have been evaluated in soil and crop samples from Jalingo and Wukari Local Government Area of Taraba State, Nigeria. The activity concentrations were determined with the aid of High Purity Germanium detector. The absorbed dose and excess lifetime cancer risk were evaluated and forecasted for 60 years using the ResRad off-site model. The average activity concentration of <sup>40</sup>K, <sup>232</sup>Th, and <sup>238</sup>U in the soil samples were 633.13, 141.15, and 71.20 Bq·kg<sup>-1</sup> respectively, for the Jalingo study area, and while that of the Wukari study area was;199.21, 87.23, and 25.37 Bq·kg<sup>-1</sup> respectively. The average soil-to-plant transfer factors for <sup>40</sup>K, <sup>232</sup>Th, and <sup>238</sup>U were 0.51, 0.10, and 0.27 respectively for the Jalingo study area while that of Wukari are 0.40, 0.57, and 0.74 respectively. The mean annual effective dose equivalent for the study area is higher than the world average of 0.07 mS·vy<sup>-1</sup>. The excess lifetime cancer risk for the study areas has values that are higher than the safety limit. The ResRed model showed that direct radiation from the crops is the major contributor to excess cancer risk among other pathways. The radiological hazard indices reveal health risks to farmers, especially in the Jalingo area.
文摘As a variant index, variation has an inherent shortcoming that it can only reflect the static fluctuation of the crop. This paper makes complementary analysis about it on the basis of the comment on Miranda＇s approach of β index and goes on to analyze the β index approach under the condition of three kinds of crop insurance plans, β index approach has the advantage that it can dynamically reflect the risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan. At the same insurance level, the smaller the β index is, the better the corresponding risk transfer effect of crop insurance plan is; And vice versa.
基金supported by the Major Projects of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No. KZCX2-YW-Q02-05)the Beijing Science and Technology Program (No. D101105046410004)
文摘The possible health risks of heavy metals contamination to local population through food chain were evaluated in Beijing and Tianjin city cluster, China, where have a long history of sewage irrigation. The transfer factors （TF） for heavy metals from soil to vegetables for six elements including Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, As and Cd were calculated and the pollution load indexes （PLI） were also assessed. Results indicate that only Cd exceeded the maximum acceptable limit in these sites. So far, the heavy metal concentrations in soils and vegetables were all below the permissible limits set by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China and World Health Organization. The transfer factors of six heavy metals showed the trend as Cd 〉 Zn 〉 Cu 〉 Pb 〉 As 〉 Cr, which were dependent on the vegetable species. The estimated dietary intakes of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, As and Cd were far below the tolerable limits and the target hazard quotient （THQ） values were less than 1, which suggested that the health risks of heavy metals exposure through consuming vegetables were generally assumed to be safe.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40871231)the Key Technologies R&D Program for the 11th Five Year Plan(No.2006BAJ10B03)the Ministry of Science and Technology of People's Republic of China
文摘Contamination of soil and agricultural products by heavy metals resulting from rapid industrial development has caused major concern. In this study, we investigated heavy metal （Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Hg and Cd） concentrations in rice and garden vegetables, as well as in cultivated soils, in a rural-industrial developed region in southern Jiangsu, China, and estimated the potential health risks of metals to the inhabitants via consumption of locally produced rice and garden vegetables. A questionnaire-based survey on dietary consumption rates of foodstuffs showed that rice and vegetables accounted for 64% of total foodstuffs consumed, and over 60% of rice and vegetables were grown in the local region. Average concentrations of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, Hg and Pb were 0.75, 2.64, 12.00, 0.014, 0.006 and 0.054 mg/kg dw （dry weight） in rice and were 0.67, 1.18, 4.34, 0.011, 0.002 and 0.058 mg/kg fw （fresh weight） in garden vegetables, respectively. These values were all below the maximum allowable concentration in food in China except for Cr in vegetables. Leafy vegetables had higher metal concentrations than solanaceae vegetables. Average daily intake of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd, Hg and Pb through the consumption of rice and garden vegetables were 5.66, 16.90, 74.21, 0.10, 0.04 and 0.43 μg/（kg·day）, respectively. Although Hazard Quotient values of individual metals were all lower than 1, when all six metal intakes via self-planted rice and garden vegetables were combined, the Hazard Index value was close to 1. Potential health risks from exposure to heavy metals in self-planted rice and garden vegetables need more attention.
文摘Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is one of the most common acute and critical illnesses in general wards and intensive care units. Its high morbidity and high fatality rate have become a major global public health problem. There are often serious lags in clinical diagnosis of AKI. Early diagnosis and timely intervention and effective care become critical. The use of electronic medical record data to build an AKI risk prediction model has been proven to help prevent the occurrence of AKI. However, in actual clinical applications, the distribution of historical data and new data will continue to vary over time, resulting in a significant decrease in the performance of the model. How to solve the problem of model performance degradation over time will be a core challenge for the long-term use of predictive models in clinical applications. Aiming at the above problems, this paper studies the classic Transfer-Stacking model migration algorithm. Aiming at the lack of this algorithm, such as the loss of a large amount of feature information of the target domain and poor fit when integrating the model of the target domain, the Accumulate-Transfer-Stacking algorithm is proposed to improve it. Improvements include: 1) Optimize the input vector and model integration algorithm of Transfer-Stacking’s target domain model. 2) Optimize Transfer-Stacking from a single-source domain model to a multi-source domain model. The experimental results show that for the improved algorithm proposed in this paper when the data is sufficient and insufficient, the average AUC value of the model on the data of subsequent years is 0.89 and 0.87, and the average F1 Score value is 0.45 and 0.36. Moreover, this method is significantly better than the unimproved Transfer-Stacking algorithm and baseline method, and can effectively overcome the problem of data distribution heterogeneity caused by time factors.
文摘At present,further research and exploration on credit risks are being carried out in the global field,and increasingly profound modem credit risks are exposed to the bond market.This requires that we cannot ignore the impact of credit rating migration risk on bond pricing,so as to adapt to the sustainable and healthy development of the bond market under the new normal of China's economy.The innovation point of this paper is to try to analyze the pricing of Convertible bonds in China from the perspective of credit rating migration risk.Tsiveriotis and Femandes(1998)model is selected,and the credit risk in the model is assumed to be caused by the credit rating migration risk,and the credit spread is used to measure the credit rating migration risk.The research conclusion of this paper is as follows:First,it is valid to consider the risk of credit rating migration in the TF(1998)model.The market price of convertible bonds is on average 1.22% higher 1han the theoretical value of the model.In general,the theoretical value obtained from the model has little deviation from the market price,and has a good fitting degree.Second,from the Angle of credit rating,the selection of 32 samples of convertible bonds only empirical research shows that the credit rating of AA-convertible bonds average deviation rate is negative,suggest that the credit rating of AA-the phenomenon of convertible bonds value is underestimated,and AAA credit rating to AA,AA+,the average deviation rate of convertible bonds is positive,that credit rating AA(containing AA)more convertible bond value is overrated phenomenon,and the higher the credit rating of the average deviation rate of convertible bond,the greater the overvalued levels.It has certain guiding significance for participants in the convertible bond market.
基金supported by the International Cooperation and Exchange Program(Grant 41461164004)General Program(Grant 41174004)of National Natural Science Foundation of China+2 种基金the National International Science and Technology Cooperation Project(Grant 2015DFR21100)the Basic Research Fund Division Mission(Grant 2015IES0305)the Basic Research Project(Grant 2014IES010102)of Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration
文摘After Mw 7.8 Nepal earthquake occurred, the rearrangement of stresses in the crust commonly leads to subsequent damaging earthquakes. We present the calculations of the coseismic stress changes that resulted from the 25th April event using models of regional faults designed according to south Tibet-Nepal structure, and show that some indicative significant stress increases. We calculate static stress changes caused by the displacement of a fault on which dislocations happen and an earthquake occurs. A Mw 7.3 earthquake broke on 12 May at a distance of - 130 km SEE of the Mw 7.8 earthquake, whose focus roughly located on high Coulomb stress change （CSC） site. Aftershocks （first 15 days after the mainshock） are associated with stress increase zone caused by the main rupture. We set receiver faults with specified strikes, dips, and rakes, on which the stresses imparted by the source fault are resolved. Four group normal faults to the north of the Nepal earthquake seismogenic fault were set as receiver faults and variant results followed. We provide a discussion on Coulomb stress transfer for the seismogenic fault, which is useful to identify potential future rupture zones.
基金supported by the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation, China (No. ZR2017QD017)Shandong Geological Exploration Fundation (No. 2018(49))+1 种基金Key Scientific and Technological Projects of Shandong Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources (KY201957)Shandong Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources Exploration Fundation (KC2018010)
文摘To investigate the evolution trend of water quality in Dongping Lake after South-North Water Transfer Project operation as well as to ensure the safe usage of the water receiving areas, water samples were collected and determined before and after water delivery in different hydrological seasons. Then, comprehensive pollution index method, comprehensive nutrition state index method and health risk assessment model were utilized to evaluate the quality, nutrition, and health risk of Dongping Lake water. Results showed that the quality of Dongping Lake water still met level Ⅲ (light pollution) no matter before or after water delivery. The nutrition state was improved from light eutropher before water delivery to mesotropher after water delivery. The health risk level was reduced from high-medium before water delivery to medium level after water delivery. In summary, the operation of the eastern route of South-North Water Transfer Project is beneficial for water environment improvement of Dongping Lake.
