Let N (t)be the number of individuals in a population at time t. Model I: N (t+1)=λN(t) exp(-βN (t)) describes the dynamics of a density-dependent population for a discrete time, where r=lnλ is the intrinsic growth...Let N (t)be the number of individuals in a population at time t. Model I: N (t+1)=λN(t) exp(-βN (t)) describes the dynamics of a density-dependent population for a discrete time, where r=lnλ is the intrinsic growth rate of a population without density dependence, and β measures per capita density sensitivity. Model I is an elementary展开更多
Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In...Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-differ- ence model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort （CPUE） data （1975-2011） of the southern Atlantic albacore （Thunnus alalunga） stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises （CVs） were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters a and fl in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. a is more sensitive to CV than fl and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield （MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t） with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approxi- mately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed de- lay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.展开更多
Using the sterile insect technique,in which sterile mosquitoes are released to reduce or eradicate the wild mosquito population,is an effective weapon to prevent transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. To study the i...Using the sterile insect technique,in which sterile mosquitoes are released to reduce or eradicate the wild mosquito population,is an effective weapon to prevent transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. To study the impact of the sterile insect technique on the disease transmissions,we formulate stage-structured discrete-time mathematical models,based on difference equations,for the interactive dynamics of the wild and sterile mosquitoes. We incorporate different strategies for releasing sterile mosquitoes,investigate the model dynamics,and compare the impact of the different release strategies.Numerical examples are also provided to demonstrate dynamical features of the models.展开更多
Based on the Ricker-type models,the spawning stock-recruitment(S-R)relationship of Portunus trituberculatus was analysed under the impacts of environmental factors(including red tide area(AORT),sea level height(SLH),s...Based on the Ricker-type models,the spawning stock-recruitment(S-R)relationship of Portunus trituberculatus was analysed under the impacts of environmental factors(including red tide area(AORT),sea level height(SLH),sea surface salinity(SSS)and typhoon landing times(TYP))in the northern East China Sea in 2001 and 2014.Besides the traditional Ricker model,two other Ricker-type S-R models were built:Ricker model with ln-linear environmental impact(Ricker-type 2)and Ricker model with ln-quadratic polynomial environmental impact(Ricker-type 3).Results showed that AORT,SLH,SSS and TYP had great influences on the recruitment of P.trituberculatus.When SSS reached 29 and 31,recruitment decreased from 20.7×10^(3) million to 8.3×10^(3) million individuals.In this case,recruitment declined,whereas AORT and TYP increased.Analysis of the S-R model showed that the Akaike information criterion(AIC)value of the traditional Ricker model was 14.619,which remarkably decreased after addition of the environmental factors.Different numbers of environmental factors were added to the Ricker model,and the best result was obtained when four factors were added to the model together.Moreover,Ricker-type 2 model,with the AIC value of-5.307,was better than Ricker-type 3 model(add above four environmental factors at the same time).The findings indicated that the mechanisms by which various environmental factors affect the S-R relationship are different.展开更多
Population changes are believed to be controlled by multiple factors, including an important density-dependent effect. This paper reviews the literature on this topic and shows that this density-dependent effect does ...Population changes are believed to be controlled by multiple factors, including an important density-dependent effect. This paper reviews the literature on this topic and shows that this density-dependent effect does not exist. This paper also gives a typical example in which no density-dependent effect was detected in the stock-recruitment relationship in Japanese sardines. The recruitment was found to be determined in proportion to the spawning stock biomass and to be affected by environmental factors. This simple mechanism is applicable not only in fish species but also in insects such as Thrips imaginis in Australia. The reason that many biologists have not become aware that the density-dependent effect does not exist is discussed using a metaphor. This paper proposes a new concept in the study of population change. The new concept proposed here will replace the currently used basic concept that has been assumed to be correct for more than 50 years.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Let N (t)be the number of individuals in a population at time t. Model I: N (t+1)=λN(t) exp(-βN (t)) describes the dynamics of a density-dependent population for a discrete time, where r=lnλ is the intrinsic growth rate of a population without density dependence, and β measures per capita density sensitivity. Model I is an elementary
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (Grant No. 201022001)
文摘Delay-difference models are intermediate between simple surplus-production models and complicated age-structured models. Such intermediate models are more efficient and require less data than age-structured models. In this study, a delay-differ- ence model was applied to fit catch and catch per unit effort （CPUE） data （1975-2011） of the southern Atlantic albacore （Thunnus alalunga） stock. The proposed delay-difference model captures annual fluctuations in predicted CPUE data better than Fox model. In a Monte Carlo simulation, white noises （CVs） were superimposed on the observed CPUE data at four levels. Relative estimate error was then calculated to compare the estimated results with the true values of parameters a and fl in Ricker stock-recruitment model and the catchability coefficient q. a is more sensitive to CV than fl and q. We also calculated an 80% percentile confidence interval of the maximum sustainable yield （MSY, 21756 t to 23408 t; median 22490 t） with the delay-difference model. The yield of the southern Atlantic albacore stock in 2011 was 24122t, and the estimated ratios of catch against MSY for the past seven years were approxi- mately 1.0. We suggest that care should be taken to protect the albacore fishery in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The proposed de- lay-difference model provides a good fit to the data of southern Atlantic albacore stock and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional albacore stock.
基金supported partially by U.S.National Science Foundation grant DMS-0931213
文摘Using the sterile insect technique,in which sterile mosquitoes are released to reduce or eradicate the wild mosquito population,is an effective weapon to prevent transmission of mosquito-borne diseases. To study the impact of the sterile insect technique on the disease transmissions,we formulate stage-structured discrete-time mathematical models,based on difference equations,for the interactive dynamics of the wild and sterile mosquitoes. We incorporate different strategies for releasing sterile mosquitoes,investigate the model dynamics,and compare the impact of the different release strategies.Numerical examples are also provided to demonstrate dynamical features of the models.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2017YFA0604902 and 2019YFD0901304the Public Welfare Technology Application Research Project of Zhejiang under contract No.LGN21C190009。
文摘Based on the Ricker-type models,the spawning stock-recruitment(S-R)relationship of Portunus trituberculatus was analysed under the impacts of environmental factors(including red tide area(AORT),sea level height(SLH),sea surface salinity(SSS)and typhoon landing times(TYP))in the northern East China Sea in 2001 and 2014.Besides the traditional Ricker model,two other Ricker-type S-R models were built:Ricker model with ln-linear environmental impact(Ricker-type 2)and Ricker model with ln-quadratic polynomial environmental impact(Ricker-type 3).Results showed that AORT,SLH,SSS and TYP had great influences on the recruitment of P.trituberculatus.When SSS reached 29 and 31,recruitment decreased from 20.7×10^(3) million to 8.3×10^(3) million individuals.In this case,recruitment declined,whereas AORT and TYP increased.Analysis of the S-R model showed that the Akaike information criterion(AIC)value of the traditional Ricker model was 14.619,which remarkably decreased after addition of the environmental factors.Different numbers of environmental factors were added to the Ricker model,and the best result was obtained when four factors were added to the model together.Moreover,Ricker-type 2 model,with the AIC value of-5.307,was better than Ricker-type 3 model(add above four environmental factors at the same time).The findings indicated that the mechanisms by which various environmental factors affect the S-R relationship are different.
文摘Population changes are believed to be controlled by multiple factors, including an important density-dependent effect. This paper reviews the literature on this topic and shows that this density-dependent effect does not exist. This paper also gives a typical example in which no density-dependent effect was detected in the stock-recruitment relationship in Japanese sardines. The recruitment was found to be determined in proportion to the spawning stock biomass and to be affected by environmental factors. This simple mechanism is applicable not only in fish species but also in insects such as Thrips imaginis in Australia. The reason that many biologists have not become aware that the density-dependent effect does not exist is discussed using a metaphor. This paper proposes a new concept in the study of population change. The new concept proposed here will replace the currently used basic concept that has been assumed to be correct for more than 50 years.
