In order to analyze the failure data from repairable systems, the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) is usually used. In general, HPP cannot be applied to analyze the entire life cycle of a complex, re-pairable system ...In order to analyze the failure data from repairable systems, the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) is usually used. In general, HPP cannot be applied to analyze the entire life cycle of a complex, re-pairable system because the rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) of the system changes over time rather than remains stable. However, from a practical point of view, it is always preferred to apply the simplest method to address problems and to obtain useful practical results. Therefore, we attempted to use the HPP model to analyze the failure data from real repairable systems. A graphic method and the Laplace test were also used in the analysis. Results of numerical applications show that the HPP model may be a useful tool for the entire life cycle of repairable systems.展开更多
In this paper, reliability of some typical non-Markov repairable systems, including series systems, m-out-of- n or majority vote systems, and n : m cross-strapping standby redundant systems with general repair-time di...In this paper, reliability of some typical non-Markov repairable systems, including series systems, m-out-of- n or majority vote systems, and n : m cross-strapping standby redundant systems with general repair-time distribution, are studied by applying the generalized Markov renewal process (GMRP). The stochastic behavior of the typical systems is analyzed here. Formulas for mean time to first system failure, MTBF, MTTR, and availability are then developed.展开更多
Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among ...Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among different subjects.Nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a powerful and flexible tool for handling the unbalanced count data.In this paper,nonlinear mixed-effects models are used to analyze the failure data from a repairable system with multiple copies.By using this type of models,statistical inferences about the population and all copies can be made when accounting for copy-to-copy variance.Results of fitting nonlinear mixed-effects models to nine failure-data sets show that the nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a useful tool for analyzing the failure data from multi-copy repairable systems.展开更多
Compared with the classical Markov repairable system, the Markov repairable system with stochastic regimes switching introduced in the paper provides a more realistic description of the practical system. The system ca...Compared with the classical Markov repairable system, the Markov repairable system with stochastic regimes switching introduced in the paper provides a more realistic description of the practical system. The system can be used to model the dynamics of a repairable system whose performance regimes switch according to the external conditions. For example, to satisfy the demand variation that is typical for the power and communication systems and reduce the cost, these systems usually adjust their operating regimes. The transition rate matrices under distinct operating regimes are assumed to be different and the sojourn times in distinct regimes are governed by a finite state Markov chain. By using the theory of Markov process, Ion channel theory, and Laplace transforms, the up time of the system are studied. A numerical example is given to illustrate the obtained results. The effect of sojourn times in distinct regimes on the availability and the up time are also discussed in the numerical example.展开更多
In the traditional method for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant system,the system structure is described by means of binary decision diagram (BDD) and Markov process,and then the reliability indexes are calcu...In the traditional method for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant system,the system structure is described by means of binary decision diagram (BDD) and Markov process,and then the reliability indexes are calculated.However,as the size of system augments,the size of state space will increase exponentially.Additionally,Markov approach requires that the failure and repair time of the components obey an exponential distribution.In this study,by combining dynamic fault tree (DFT) and numerical simulation based on the minimal sequence cut set (MSCS),a new method to evaluate reliability of fault-tolerant system with repairable components is proposed.The method presented does not depend on Markov model,so that it can effectively solve the problem of the state-space combination explosion.Moreover,it is suitable for systems whose failure and repair time obey an arbitrary distribution.Therefore,our method is more flexible than the traditional method.At last,an example is given to verify the method.展开更多
A two-stage directed Semi-Markov repairable network system is presented in this paper to model the performance of many transmission systems, such as power or oil transmission network, water or gas supply network, etc....A two-stage directed Semi-Markov repairable network system is presented in this paper to model the performance of many transmission systems, such as power or oil transmission network, water or gas supply network, etc. The availability of the system is discussed by using Markov renewal theory, Laplace transform and probability analysis methods. A numerical example is given to illustrate the results obtained in the paper.展开更多
To solve a real problem:how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,...To solve a real problem:how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,and obtains calculating formulas of reliability and availability of the system by solving differential equations.In this paper,the failure rates are expressed in polynomial configuration.The constant,linear and Weibull failure rate are in their special form.The polynomial failure rates provide flexibility in modeling the practical time-varying failure rates.展开更多
In the present work, it is assumed that the n-components are arranged in the hierarchial order. The n-cascade system surviving with loss of m components by k number of attacks is studied;the general equation for the r...In the present work, it is assumed that the n-components are arranged in the hierarchial order. The n-cascade system surviving with loss of m components by k number of attacks is studied;the general equation for the reliability is obtained for the above said system;and the system reliability is computed numerically for 6-cascade system for 2-number of attacks.展开更多
Inadequate maintenance decisions lead to incremental overall costs. In order to minimize costs in maintenance of the multi-state repairable system, we model a preventive maintenance(PM) scheme of the multistate repair...Inadequate maintenance decisions lead to incremental overall costs. In order to minimize costs in maintenance of the multi-state repairable system, we model a preventive maintenance(PM) scheme of the multistate repairable system using non-Markov process. The periodically decreasing reliability model of the non-Markov dynamic system with dynamic transition probabilities is established to satisfy the probability change. The diesel engine system is taken as an example to illustrate the model. The reliability of the diesel engine is analyzed and its PM scheme is worked out. RENO software is used to simulate the diesel engine system. The maintenance cost of components and the optimal PM interval data of the system are obtained by using the minimal average cost as the objective function. The adaptability of PM is judged, and the optimal PM scheme is presented.展开更多
The new model for parallel repairable system is introduced, and it is based on the practice problems of maintenance and the idea of Ion-Channel modeling. In the new model, repair times that are sufficiently short （le...The new model for parallel repairable system is introduced, and it is based on the practice problems of maintenance and the idea of Ion-Channel modeling. In the new model, repair times that are sufficiently short （less than some critical value） do not result in system failure, and such a repair interval is omitted from the downtime record. Usually, the underlying process is Markov process if the durations of working and repair time have the negative-exponential distributions, but the new system has not the Markov properties, which is worth to study. The reliability indexes such as instantaneous availability and steady-state availabilities for the new system are given through probability analysis. A numerical example is given to illustrate the results.展开更多
As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions ...As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.展开更多
Tool magazine is an important part of a processing center.Tool magazines have the advantage of reducing work parts turnover,handling,and storage time.In addition,some research shows that the use of tool magazine in ma...Tool magazine is an important part of a processing center.Tool magazines have the advantage of reducing work parts turnover,handling,and storage time.In addition,some research shows that the use of tool magazine in machine tools in the machining center can make the cutting time utilization rate of machine tools 3-4 times higher than that of ordinary machine tools,and has better machining consistency,thus improving processing accuracy and processing efficiency,shortening the production cycle.Therefore,the reliability,efficiency and accuracy of the tool magazine have a crucial impact on the stability of the machine tool.Therefore,the reliability analysis of CNC machine tool magazine is considerably important.In view of this problem,this paper puts forward that the reliability model of the tool magazine is established after the parameter estimation and hypothesis test,and then the maintainability model of the tool magazine is built,it ends with the fault analysis of the tool magazine.展开更多
文摘In order to analyze the failure data from repairable systems, the homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) is usually used. In general, HPP cannot be applied to analyze the entire life cycle of a complex, re-pairable system because the rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) of the system changes over time rather than remains stable. However, from a practical point of view, it is always preferred to apply the simplest method to address problems and to obtain useful practical results. Therefore, we attempted to use the HPP model to analyze the failure data from real repairable systems. A graphic method and the Laplace test were also used in the analysis. Results of numerical applications show that the HPP model may be a useful tool for the entire life cycle of repairable systems.
基金This work is supported by Openning Laboratory of Complex System Control,Institute of Automation, Academia Sinica
文摘In this paper, reliability of some typical non-Markov repairable systems, including series systems, m-out-of- n or majority vote systems, and n : m cross-strapping standby redundant systems with general repair-time distribution, are studied by applying the generalized Markov renewal process (GMRP). The stochastic behavior of the typical systems is analyzed here. Formulas for mean time to first system failure, MTBF, MTTR, and availability are then developed.
文摘Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among different subjects.Nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a powerful and flexible tool for handling the unbalanced count data.In this paper,nonlinear mixed-effects models are used to analyze the failure data from a repairable system with multiple copies.By using this type of models,statistical inferences about the population and all copies can be made when accounting for copy-to-copy variance.Results of fitting nonlinear mixed-effects models to nine failure-data sets show that the nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a useful tool for analyzing the failure data from multi-copy repairable systems.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71071020 60705036)Beijing Excellent Doctoral Dissertation Instructor Project of Humanities and Social Sciences(yb20091000701)
文摘Compared with the classical Markov repairable system, the Markov repairable system with stochastic regimes switching introduced in the paper provides a more realistic description of the practical system. The system can be used to model the dynamics of a repairable system whose performance regimes switch according to the external conditions. For example, to satisfy the demand variation that is typical for the power and communication systems and reduce the cost, these systems usually adjust their operating regimes. The transition rate matrices under distinct operating regimes are assumed to be different and the sojourn times in distinct regimes are governed by a finite state Markov chain. By using the theory of Markov process, Ion channel theory, and Laplace transforms, the up time of the system are studied. A numerical example is given to illustrate the obtained results. The effect of sojourn times in distinct regimes on the availability and the up time are also discussed in the numerical example.
文摘In the traditional method for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant system,the system structure is described by means of binary decision diagram (BDD) and Markov process,and then the reliability indexes are calculated.However,as the size of system augments,the size of state space will increase exponentially.Additionally,Markov approach requires that the failure and repair time of the components obey an exponential distribution.In this study,by combining dynamic fault tree (DFT) and numerical simulation based on the minimal sequence cut set (MSCS),a new method to evaluate reliability of fault-tolerant system with repairable components is proposed.The method presented does not depend on Markov model,so that it can effectively solve the problem of the state-space combination explosion.Moreover,it is suitable for systems whose failure and repair time obey an arbitrary distribution.Therefore,our method is more flexible than the traditional method.At last,an example is given to verify the method.
文摘A two-stage directed Semi-Markov repairable network system is presented in this paper to model the performance of many transmission systems, such as power or oil transmission network, water or gas supply network, etc. The availability of the system is discussed by using Markov renewal theory, Laplace transform and probability analysis methods. A numerical example is given to illustrate the results obtained in the paper.
文摘To solve a real problem:how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,and obtains calculating formulas of reliability and availability of the system by solving differential equations.In this paper,the failure rates are expressed in polynomial configuration.The constant,linear and Weibull failure rate are in their special form.The polynomial failure rates provide flexibility in modeling the practical time-varying failure rates.
文摘In the present work, it is assumed that the n-components are arranged in the hierarchial order. The n-cascade system surviving with loss of m components by k number of attacks is studied;the general equation for the reliability is obtained for the above said system;and the system reliability is computed numerically for 6-cascade system for 2-number of attacks.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61164009 and 61463021)the Science Foundation of Education Commission of Jiangxi Province(No.GJJ14420)+1 种基金the Young Scientists Object Program of Jiangxi Province(No.20144BCB23037)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province(No.20132BAB206026)
文摘Inadequate maintenance decisions lead to incremental overall costs. In order to minimize costs in maintenance of the multi-state repairable system, we model a preventive maintenance(PM) scheme of the multistate repairable system using non-Markov process. The periodically decreasing reliability model of the non-Markov dynamic system with dynamic transition probabilities is established to satisfy the probability change. The diesel engine system is taken as an example to illustrate the model. The reliability of the diesel engine is analyzed and its PM scheme is worked out. RENO software is used to simulate the diesel engine system. The maintenance cost of components and the optimal PM interval data of the system are obtained by using the minimal average cost as the objective function. The adaptability of PM is judged, and the optimal PM scheme is presented.
基金Sponsored bythe National Natural Science Foundation of China(70671009)the Postgraduate Science and Innovation Project of Beijing Instituteof Technology (GC200818)
文摘The new model for parallel repairable system is introduced, and it is based on the practice problems of maintenance and the idea of Ion-Channel modeling. In the new model, repair times that are sufficiently short （less than some critical value） do not result in system failure, and such a repair interval is omitted from the downtime record. Usually, the underlying process is Markov process if the durations of working and repair time have the negative-exponential distributions, but the new system has not the Markov properties, which is worth to study. The reliability indexes such as instantaneous availability and steady-state availabilities for the new system are given through probability analysis. A numerical example is given to illustrate the results.
基金co-supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61833016)the Shaanxi Out-standing Youth Science Foundation(No.2020JC-34)+1 种基金the Shaanxi Science and Technology Innovation Team(No.2022TD-24)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.LH2021F038).
文摘As a payload support system deployed on satellites,the turntable system is often switched among different working modes during the on-orbit operation,which can experience great state changes.In each mode,the missions to be completed are different,consecutive and non-over-lapping,from which the turntable system can be considered to be a phased-mission system(PMS).Reliability analysis for PMS has been widely studied.However,the system mode cycle characteristic has not been taken into account before.In this paper,reliability analysis method of the satellite turntable system is proposed considering its multiple operation modes and mode cycle characteristic.Firstly,the multi-valued decision diagrams(MDD)manipulation rules between two adjacent mission cycles are proposed.On this basis,MDD models for the turntable system in different states are established and the reliability is calculated using the continuous time Markov chains(CTMC)method.Finally,the comparative study is carried out to show the effectiveness of our proposed method.
文摘Tool magazine is an important part of a processing center.Tool magazines have the advantage of reducing work parts turnover,handling,and storage time.In addition,some research shows that the use of tool magazine in machine tools in the machining center can make the cutting time utilization rate of machine tools 3-4 times higher than that of ordinary machine tools,and has better machining consistency,thus improving processing accuracy and processing efficiency,shortening the production cycle.Therefore,the reliability,efficiency and accuracy of the tool magazine have a crucial impact on the stability of the machine tool.Therefore,the reliability analysis of CNC machine tool magazine is considerably important.In view of this problem,this paper puts forward that the reliability model of the tool magazine is established after the parameter estimation and hypothesis test,and then the maintainability model of the tool magazine is built,it ends with the fault analysis of the tool magazine.
