In this paper,an improved error-rate sliding window decoder is proposed for spatially coupled low-density parity-check(SC-LDPC)codes.For the conventional sliding window decoder,the message retention mechanism causes u...In this paper,an improved error-rate sliding window decoder is proposed for spatially coupled low-density parity-check(SC-LDPC)codes.For the conventional sliding window decoder,the message retention mechanism causes unreliable messages along the edges of belief propagation(BP)decoding in the current window to be kept for subsequent window decoding.To improve the reliability of the retained messages during the window transition,a reliable termination method is embedded,where the retained messages undergo more reliable parity checks.Additionally,decoding failure is unavoidable and even causes error propagation when the number of errors exceeds the error-correcting capability of the window.To mitigate this problem,a channel value reuse mechanism is designed,where the received channel values are utilized to reinitialize the window.Furthermore,considering the complexity and performance of decoding,a feasible sliding optimized window decoding(SOWD)scheme is introduced.Finally,simulation results confirm the superior performance of the proposed SOWD scheme in both the waterfall and error floor regions.This work has great potential in the applications of wireless optical communication and fiber optic communication.展开更多
Long-term responses of floating structures pose a great concern in their design phase. Existing approaches for addressing long-term extreme responses are extremely cumbersome for adoption. This work aims to develop an...Long-term responses of floating structures pose a great concern in their design phase. Existing approaches for addressing long-term extreme responses are extremely cumbersome for adoption. This work aims to develop an approach for the long-term extreme-response analysis of floating structures. A modified gradient-based retrieval algorithm in conjunction with the inverse first-order reliability method(IFORM) is proposed to enable the use of convolution models in long-term extreme analysis of structures with an analytical formula of response amplitude operator(RAO). The proposed algorithm ensures convergence stability and iteration accuracy and exhibits a higher computational efficiency than the traditional backtracking method. However, when the RAO of general offshore structures cannot be analytically expressed, the convolutional integration method fails to function properly. A numerical discretization approach is further proposed for offshore structures in the case when the analytical expression of the RAO is not feasible. Through iterative discretization of environmental contours(ECs) and RAOs, a detailed procedure is proposed to calculate the long-term response extremes of offshore structures. The validity and accuracy of the proposed approach are tested using a floating offshore wind turbine as a numerical example. The long-term extreme heave responses of various return periods are calculated via the IFORM in conjunction with a numerical discretization approach. The environmental data corresponding to N-year structural responses are located inside the ECs, which indicates that the selection of design points directly along the ECs yields conservative design results.展开更多
This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are...This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.展开更多
The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of ran...The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of random variables usually fails to account for soil spatial variability.To overcome these limitations,this study proposes an efficient framework for conducting reliability analysis and reliability-based design(RBD)of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil strata.The three-dimensional(3D)rotational failure mechanism of the tunnel face is extended to account for the soil spatial variability,and a probabilistic framework is established by coupling the extended mechanism with the improved Hasofer-Lind-Rackwits-Fiessler recursive algorithm(iHLRF)as well as its inverse analysis formulation.The proposed framework allows for rapid and precise reliability analysis and RBD of tunnel face stability.To demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed framework,an illustrative case of tunnelling in frictional soils is presented,where the soil's cohesion and friction angle are modelled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields.The results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the failure probability(or reliability index)regarding the tunnel face stability and can efficiently determine the required supporting pressure for a target reliability index with soil spatial variability being taken into account.Furthermore,this study reveals the impact of various factors on the support pressure,including coefficient of variation,cross-correlation between cohesion and friction angle,as well as autocorrelation distance of spatially variable soil strata.The results also demonstrate the feasibility of using the forward and/or inverse first-order reliability method(FORM)in high-dimensional stochastic problems.It is hoped that this study may provide a practical and reliable framework for determining the stability of tunnels in complex soil strata.展开更多
A probabilistic progressive failure analyzing method is applied to estimating the reliability of a simply supported laminated composite plate with an initial imperfection under bi-axial compression load. The initial i...A probabilistic progressive failure analyzing method is applied to estimating the reliability of a simply supported laminated composite plate with an initial imperfection under bi-axial compression load. The initial imperfection and the strength parameters are considered as random variables. Ply-level failure probability is evaluated by the first order reliability method (FORM) together with the Tsai-Wu strength criterion and Tan criterion. Current stresses in the laminated structure are calculated by the classical lamination theory with the stiffness modified based on the last step ply failure. Probabilistically dominant ply-level failure sequences leading to overall system failure are identified, based on which the system failure probability is estimated. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the methodology proposed. Through parameter studies it is shown that the deviation of the initial imperfection and some of the strength parameters largely influence the system reliability.展开更多
This paper presents a reliability analysis of the pseudo-static seismic bearing capacity of a strip foundation using the limit equilibrium theory. The first-order reliability method(FORM) is employed to calculate the ...This paper presents a reliability analysis of the pseudo-static seismic bearing capacity of a strip foundation using the limit equilibrium theory. The first-order reliability method(FORM) is employed to calculate the reliability index. The response surface methodology(RSM) is used to assess the Hasofer e Lind reliability index and then it is optimized using a genetic algorithm(GA). The random variables used are the soil shear strength parameters and the seismic coefficients(khand kv). Two assumptions(normal and non-normal distribution) are used for the random variables. The assumption of uncorrelated variables was found to be conservative in comparison to that of negatively correlated soil shear strength parameters. The assumption of non-normal distribution for the random variables can induce a negative effect on the reliability index of the practical range of the seismic bearing capacity.展开更多
Complex slopes are characterized by large numbers of failure modes,cut sets or link sets,or by statistical dependence between the failure modes.For such slopes,a systematic quantitative method,or matrix-based system r...Complex slopes are characterized by large numbers of failure modes,cut sets or link sets,or by statistical dependence between the failure modes.For such slopes,a systematic quantitative method,or matrix-based system reliability method,was described and improved for their reliability analysis.A construction formula of event vector c E was suggested to solve the difficulty of identifying any component E in sample space,and event vector c of system events can be calculated based on it,then the bounds of system failure probability can be obtained with the given probability information.The improved method was illustrated for four copper mine slopes with multiple failure modes,and the bounds of system failure probabilities were calculated by self-compiling program on the platform of the software MATLAB.Comparison in results from matrix-based system reliability method and two generic system methods suggests that identical accuracy could be obtained by all methods if there are only a few failure modes in slope system.Otherwise,the bounds by the Ditlevsen method or Cornell method are expanded obviously with the increase of failure modes and their precision can hardly satisfy the requirement of practical engineering while the results from the proposed method are still accurate enough.展开更多
Buckling-restrained braces （BRBs） have recently become popular in the United States for use as primary members of seismic lateral-force-resisting systems. A BRB is a steel brace that does not buckle in compression b...Buckling-restrained braces （BRBs） have recently become popular in the United States for use as primary members of seismic lateral-force-resisting systems. A BRB is a steel brace that does not buckle in compression but instead yields in both tension and compression. Although design guidelines for BRB applications have been developed, systematic procedures for assessing performance and quantifying reliability are still needed. This paper presents an analytical framework for assessing buckling-restrained braced frame （BRBF） reliability when subjected to seismic loads. This framework efficiently quantifies the risk of BRB failure due to low-cycle fatigue fracture of the BRB core. The procedure includes a series of components that： （1） quantify BRB demand in terms of BRB core deformation histories generated through stochastic dynamic analyses; （2） quantify the limit-state of a BRB in terms of its remaining cumulative plastic ductility capacity based on an experimental database; and （3） evaluate the probability of BRB failure, given the quantified demand and capacity, through structural reliability analyses. Parametric studies were conducted to investigate the effects of the seismic load, and characteristics of the BRB and BRBF on the probability of brace failure. In addition, fragility curves （i.e., conditional probabilities of brace failure given ground shaking intensity parameters） were created by the proposed framework. While the framework presented in this paper is applied to the assessment of BRBFs, the modular nature of the framework components allows for application to other structural components and systems.展开更多
This paper presents a computer system reliability allocation method that is based on the theory of statistic and Markovian chain,which can be used to allocate reliability to subsystem, to hybrid system and software mo...This paper presents a computer system reliability allocation method that is based on the theory of statistic and Markovian chain,which can be used to allocate reliability to subsystem, to hybrid system and software modules. A relevant supporting tool built by us is introduced.展开更多
The correlation coefficients of random variables of mechanical structures are generally chosen with experience or even ignored,which cannot actually reflect the effects of parameter uncertainties on reliability.To dis...The correlation coefficients of random variables of mechanical structures are generally chosen with experience or even ignored,which cannot actually reflect the effects of parameter uncertainties on reliability.To discuss the selection problem of the correlation coefficients from the reliability-based sensitivity point of view,the theory principle of the problem is established based on the results of the reliability sensitivity,and the criterion of correlation among random variables is shown.The values of the correlation coefficients are obtained according to the proposed principle and the reliability sensitivity problem is discussed.Numerical studies have shown the following results：（1） If the sensitivity value of correlation coefficient ρ is less than（at what magnitude 0.000 01）,then the correlation could be ignored,which could simplify the procedure without introducing additional error.（2） However,as the difference between ρs,that is the most sensitive to the reliability,and ρR,that is with the smallest reliability,is less than 0.001,ρs is suggested to model the dependency of random variables.This could ensure the robust quality of system without the loss of safety requirement.（3） In the case of ｜Eabs｜ρ0.001 and also ｜Erel｜ρ0.001,ρR should be employed to quantify the correlation among random variables in order to ensure the accuracy of reliability analysis.Application of the proposed approach could provide a practical routine for mechanical design and manufactory to study the reliability and reliability-based sensitivity of basic design variables in mechanical reliability analysis and design.展开更多
Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load, so it is important to study the structural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank. In this paper, the bracnch-and-bound m...Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load, so it is important to study the structural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank. In this paper, the bracnch-and-bound method is adopted to search the main failure path, and the Ditlevsen bound method is used to calculate the system failure probability. The structure is then assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, which evaluates the structural component safety rank. The ultimate equation of the tubular cross- section is analyzed on the basis of ultimate stregnth analysis. The influence of effect coefficients on the structural system failure probability is investigated, and basic results are obtained. A general program for spatial frame structures by means of the above method is developed, and verified by the numerical examples.展开更多
Human reliability analysis(HRA) is an expansion of man-machine engineering. It is also a new multidisciplinary based on behavioral science, cognitive science, information processing, system analysis and probability st...Human reliability analysis(HRA) is an expansion of man-machine engineering. It is also a new multidisciplinary based on behavioral science, cognitive science, information processing, system analysis and probability statistics in order to analyze, predict, reduce and prevent human errors. Firstly, the quantitative analysis model of HRA is proposed based on Markov process theory by using human error probability(HEP) and error correction cycle(ECC) as parameters. And human reliability evaluation criterion is built. Then, the HRA process considering error correction is proposed based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM). Finally, according to the characteristics of armored vehicle system, common performance condition(CPC) in CREAM is improved.A reliability impact index is characterized by the overall contexts of tasks. Human reliability evaluation criterion of armored vehicle system is formulated. And the result of HRA is obtained based on the method presented in this paper. In addition, the relative weights are estimated by combining scale of 10/10—18/2 and analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and the triangular fuzzy number considering confidence factor and optimism index is adopted in order to reduce the subjectivity. The analysis results show that the method presented in this paper is reasonable and feasible. Meantime, the method can provide guidance for human reliability analysis of other weapon systems.展开更多
To reasonably design the blade-tip radial running clearance(BTRRC) of high pressure turbine and improve the performance and reliability of gas turbine, the multi-object multi-discipline reliability sensitivity analysi...To reasonably design the blade-tip radial running clearance(BTRRC) of high pressure turbine and improve the performance and reliability of gas turbine, the multi-object multi-discipline reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC was accomplished from a probabilistic prospective by considering nonlinear material attributes and dynamic loads. Firstly, multiply response surface model(MRSM) was proposed and the mathematical model of this method was established based on quadratic function. Secondly, the BTRRC was decomposed into three sub-components(turbine disk, blade and casing), and then the single response surface functions(SRSFs) of three structures were built in line with the basic idea of MRSM. Thirdly, the response surface function(MRSM) of BTRRC was reshaped by coordinating SRSFs. From the analysis, it is acquired to probabilistic distribution characteristics of input-output variables, failure probabilities of blade-tip clearance under different static blade-tip clearances δ and major factors impacting BTRRC. Considering the reliability and efficiency of gas turbine, δ=1.87 mm is an optimally acceptable option for rational BTRRC. Through the comparison of three analysis methods(Monte Carlo method, traditional response surface method and MRSM), the results show that MRSM has higher accuracy and higher efficiency in reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC. These strengths are likely to become more prominent with the increasing times of simulations. The present study offers an effective and promising approach for reliability sensitivity analysis and optimal design of complex dynamic assembly relationship.展开更多
For random vibration of airborne platform, the accurate evaluation is a key indicator to ensure normal operation of airborne equipment in flight. However, only limited power spectral density（PSD） data can be obtaine...For random vibration of airborne platform, the accurate evaluation is a key indicator to ensure normal operation of airborne equipment in flight. However, only limited power spectral density（PSD） data can be obtained at the stage of flight test. Thus, those conventional evaluation methods cannot be employed when the distribution characteristics and priori information are unknown. In this paper, the fuzzy norm method（FNM） is proposed which combines the advantages of fuzzy theory and norm theory. The proposed method can deeply dig system information from limited data, which probability distribution is not taken into account. Firstly, the FNM is employed to evaluate variable interval and expanded uncertainty from limited PSD data, and the performance of FNM is demonstrated by confidence level, reliability and computing accuracy of expanded uncertainty. In addition, the optimal fuzzy parameters are discussed to meet the requirements of aviation standards and metrological practice. Finally, computer simulation is used to prove the adaptability of FNM. Compared with statistical methods, FNM has superiority for evaluating expanded uncertainty from limited data. The results show that the reliability of calculation and evaluation is superior to 95%.展开更多
The objective is to develop an approach for the determination of the target reliability index for serviceability limit state(SLS) of single piles. This contributes to conducting the SLS reliability-based design(RBD) o...The objective is to develop an approach for the determination of the target reliability index for serviceability limit state(SLS) of single piles. This contributes to conducting the SLS reliability-based design(RBD) of piles. Based on a two-parameter,hyperbolic curve-fitting equation describing the load-settlement relation of piles, the SLS model factor is defined. Then, taking into account the uncertainties of load-settlement model, load and bearing capacity of piles, the formula for computing the SLS reliability index(βsls) is obtained using the mean value first order second moment(MVFOSM) method. Meanwhile, the limit state function for conducting the SLS reliability analysis by the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method is established. These two methods are finally applied to determine the SLS target reliability index. Herein, the limiting tolerable settlement(slt) is treated as a random variable. For illustration, four load test databases from South Africa are compiled again to conduct reliability analysis and present the recommended target reliability indices. The results indicate that the MVFOSM method overestimates βsls compared to that computed by the MCS method. Besides, both factor of safety(FS) and slt are key factors influencing βsls, so the combination of FS and βsls is welcome to be used for the SLS reliability analysis of piles when slt is determined. For smaller slt, pile types and soils conditions have significant influence on the SLS target reliability indices; for larger slt, slt is the major factor having influence on the SLS target reliability indices. This proves that slt is the most key parameter for the determination of the SLS target reliability index.展开更多
The cyclic stress-strain responses (CSSR), Neuber's rule (NR) and cyclic strain-life relation (CSLR) are treated as probabilistic curves in local stress and strain method of low cycle fatigue analysis. The randomn...The cyclic stress-strain responses (CSSR), Neuber's rule (NR) and cyclic strain-life relation (CSLR) are treated as probabilistic curves in local stress and strain method of low cycle fatigue analysis. The randomness of loading and the theory of fatigue damage accumulation (TOFDA) are considered. The probabilistic analysis of local stress, local strain and fatigue life are constructed based on the first-order Taylor's series expansions. Through this method proposed fatigue reliability analysis can be accomplished.展开更多
This article introduces the current situation of the smart then describes the relationship of meter reliability characteristics meter＇s reliability and the failure mechanisms at first, and combined with its Bathtub C...This article introduces the current situation of the smart then describes the relationship of meter reliability characteristics meter＇s reliability and the failure mechanisms at first, and combined with its Bathtub Curve. It also introduces both the feasible failure tree model for meter lifecycle prediction based on actual experiences and meter reliability prediction methodology by SN 29500 norms based on this model. This article also brings forward that it is necessary that the ＂Learning Factor＂ shall be adopted in meter reliability prediction for new materials, new process, and customized parts by referring to GJB/Z299C. Thereafter, this article also tries to apply IEC 62059 and JB/T 50070 to introduce the feasible method for the lifecycle prediction result verification by accelerated lifecycle test. Furthermore, the article also explores ways to increase the firmware reliability in smart meter.展开更多
This paper investigates the reliability of composite laminates with various lay-ups under fatigue loading.The prediction of failure probability of composite laminates subjected to different loads involves many uncerta...This paper investigates the reliability of composite laminates with various lay-ups under fatigue loading.The prediction of failure probability of composite laminates subjected to different loads involves many uncertainties associated with mechanical properties,loading,and boundary conditions.Failure in the composite material is truly hard to trace because there are individual faults in each ply,and we face a stochastic process due to the scatter in the mechanical properties.The continuum damage mechanics(CDM),as a powerful approach,is applied to model the damage of fiber,matrix,and fiber/matrix debonding.This method defines criteria for damage detection and determines safe zones.The material constitutive equations are executed using a subroutine inAbaqus.The first-order reliability method and second-order reliability method have been applied to examine the reliability of laminated composites.The results are compared with those of the Monte Carlo simulation.Different composite laminates under different stress levels are considered for the failure probability investigation.The limit state functions and random variables have been determined based on the CDM model.Finally,the effects of the number of cycles,applied stress,and stacking sequence of the laminate on the reliability and fatigue life in fiber-reinforced laminated composites are assessed.展开更多
This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for linear fracture mechanics analysis of cracked structures. The main focus is on probabilistic aspect related to the nature of crack in material. The methodology invol...This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for linear fracture mechanics analysis of cracked structures. The main focus is on probabilistic aspect related to the nature of crack in material. The methodology involves finite element analysis; sta- tistical models for uncertainty in material properties, crack size, fracture toughness and loads; and standard reliability methods for evaluating probabilistic characteristics of linear elastic fracture parameter. The uncertainty in the crack size can have a significant effect on the probability of failure, particularly when the crack size has a large coefficient of variation. Numerical example is presented to show that probabilistic methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation provides accurate estimates of failure prob- ability for use in linear elastic fracture mechanics.展开更多
Caisson breakwaters are mainly constructed in deep waters to protect an area against waves.These breakwaters are con-ventionally designed based on the concept of the safety factor.However,the wave loads and resistance...Caisson breakwaters are mainly constructed in deep waters to protect an area against waves.These breakwaters are con-ventionally designed based on the concept of the safety factor.However,the wave loads and resistance of structures have epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Furthermore,sliding failure is one of the most important failure modes of caisson breakwaters.In most previous studies,for assessment purposes,uncertainties,such as wave and wave period variation,were ignored.Therefore,in this study,Bayesian reliability analysis is implemented to assess the failure probability of the sliding of Tombak port breakwater in the Persian Gulf.The mean and standard deviations were taken as random variables to consider dismissed uncertainties.For this purpose,the frst-order reliability method(FORM)and the frst principal curvature cor-rection in FORM are used to calculate the reliability index.The performances of these methods are verifed by importance sampling through Monte Carlo simulation(MCS).In addition,the reliability index sensitivities of each random variable are calculated to evaluate the importance of diferent random variables while calculating the caisson sliding.The results show that the reliability index is most sensitive to the coefcients of friction,wave height,and caisson weight(or concrete density).The sensitivity of the failure probability of each of the random variables and their uncertainties are calculated by the derivative method.Finally,the Bayesian regression is implemented to predict the statistical properties of breakwater sliding with non-informative priors,which are compared to Goda’s formulation,used in breakwater design standards.The analysis shows that the model posterior for the sliding of a caisson breakwater has a mean and standard deviation of 0.039 and 0.022,respectively.A normal quantile analysis and residual analysis are also performed to evaluate the correctness of the model responses.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.62275193)。
文摘In this paper,an improved error-rate sliding window decoder is proposed for spatially coupled low-density parity-check(SC-LDPC)codes.For the conventional sliding window decoder,the message retention mechanism causes unreliable messages along the edges of belief propagation(BP)decoding in the current window to be kept for subsequent window decoding.To improve the reliability of the retained messages during the window transition,a reliable termination method is embedded,where the retained messages undergo more reliable parity checks.Additionally,decoding failure is unavoidable and even causes error propagation when the number of errors exceeds the error-correcting capability of the window.To mitigate this problem,a channel value reuse mechanism is designed,where the received channel values are utilized to reinitialize the window.Furthermore,considering the complexity and performance of decoding,a feasible sliding optimized window decoding(SOWD)scheme is introduced.Finally,simulation results confirm the superior performance of the proposed SOWD scheme in both the waterfall and error floor regions.This work has great potential in the applications of wireless optical communication and fiber optic communication.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.52088102 and 51879287)National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFB2602301)。
文摘Long-term responses of floating structures pose a great concern in their design phase. Existing approaches for addressing long-term extreme responses are extremely cumbersome for adoption. This work aims to develop an approach for the long-term extreme-response analysis of floating structures. A modified gradient-based retrieval algorithm in conjunction with the inverse first-order reliability method(IFORM) is proposed to enable the use of convolution models in long-term extreme analysis of structures with an analytical formula of response amplitude operator(RAO). The proposed algorithm ensures convergence stability and iteration accuracy and exhibits a higher computational efficiency than the traditional backtracking method. However, when the RAO of general offshore structures cannot be analytically expressed, the convolutional integration method fails to function properly. A numerical discretization approach is further proposed for offshore structures in the case when the analytical expression of the RAO is not feasible. Through iterative discretization of environmental contours(ECs) and RAOs, a detailed procedure is proposed to calculate the long-term response extremes of offshore structures. The validity and accuracy of the proposed approach are tested using a floating offshore wind turbine as a numerical example. The long-term extreme heave responses of various return periods are calculated via the IFORM in conjunction with a numerical discretization approach. The environmental data corresponding to N-year structural responses are located inside the ECs, which indicates that the selection of design points directly along the ECs yields conservative design results.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52109144,52025094 and 52222905).
文摘This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U22A20594)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.B230205028)the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX23_0694).
文摘The traditional deterministic analysis for tunnel face stability neglects the uncertainties of geotechnical parameters,while the simplified reliability analysis which models the potential uncertainties by means of random variables usually fails to account for soil spatial variability.To overcome these limitations,this study proposes an efficient framework for conducting reliability analysis and reliability-based design(RBD)of tunnel face stability in spatially variable soil strata.The three-dimensional(3D)rotational failure mechanism of the tunnel face is extended to account for the soil spatial variability,and a probabilistic framework is established by coupling the extended mechanism with the improved Hasofer-Lind-Rackwits-Fiessler recursive algorithm(iHLRF)as well as its inverse analysis formulation.The proposed framework allows for rapid and precise reliability analysis and RBD of tunnel face stability.To demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of the proposed framework,an illustrative case of tunnelling in frictional soils is presented,where the soil's cohesion and friction angle are modelled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields.The results show that the proposed method can accurately estimate the failure probability(or reliability index)regarding the tunnel face stability and can efficiently determine the required supporting pressure for a target reliability index with soil spatial variability being taken into account.Furthermore,this study reveals the impact of various factors on the support pressure,including coefficient of variation,cross-correlation between cohesion and friction angle,as well as autocorrelation distance of spatially variable soil strata.The results also demonstrate the feasibility of using the forward and/or inverse first-order reliability method(FORM)in high-dimensional stochastic problems.It is hoped that this study may provide a practical and reliable framework for determining the stability of tunnels in complex soil strata.
基金the Scientific Research Foundation for Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars,State Education Ministrythe Research Foundation of Huazhong University of Science and Technology
文摘A probabilistic progressive failure analyzing method is applied to estimating the reliability of a simply supported laminated composite plate with an initial imperfection under bi-axial compression load. The initial imperfection and the strength parameters are considered as random variables. Ply-level failure probability is evaluated by the first order reliability method (FORM) together with the Tsai-Wu strength criterion and Tan criterion. Current stresses in the laminated structure are calculated by the classical lamination theory with the stiffness modified based on the last step ply failure. Probabilistically dominant ply-level failure sequences leading to overall system failure are identified, based on which the system failure probability is estimated. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the methodology proposed. Through parameter studies it is shown that the deviation of the initial imperfection and some of the strength parameters largely influence the system reliability.
基金the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research of Algeria for supporting this work by offering an 11-month scholarship to the first author at the 3SR laboratory of Grenoble Alpes University,France
文摘This paper presents a reliability analysis of the pseudo-static seismic bearing capacity of a strip foundation using the limit equilibrium theory. The first-order reliability method(FORM) is employed to calculate the reliability index. The response surface methodology(RSM) is used to assess the Hasofer e Lind reliability index and then it is optimized using a genetic algorithm(GA). The random variables used are the soil shear strength parameters and the seismic coefficients(khand kv). Two assumptions(normal and non-normal distribution) are used for the random variables. The assumption of uncorrelated variables was found to be conservative in comparison to that of negatively correlated soil shear strength parameters. The assumption of non-normal distribution for the random variables can induce a negative effect on the reliability index of the practical range of the seismic bearing capacity.
基金Project(51078170) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(10JDG097) supported by Jiangsu University Talents Funds,China
文摘Complex slopes are characterized by large numbers of failure modes,cut sets or link sets,or by statistical dependence between the failure modes.For such slopes,a systematic quantitative method,or matrix-based system reliability method,was described and improved for their reliability analysis.A construction formula of event vector c E was suggested to solve the difficulty of identifying any component E in sample space,and event vector c of system events can be calculated based on it,then the bounds of system failure probability can be obtained with the given probability information.The improved method was illustrated for four copper mine slopes with multiple failure modes,and the bounds of system failure probabilities were calculated by self-compiling program on the platform of the software MATLAB.Comparison in results from matrix-based system reliability method and two generic system methods suggests that identical accuracy could be obtained by all methods if there are only a few failure modes in slope system.Otherwise,the bounds by the Ditlevsen method or Cornell method are expanded obviously with the increase of failure modes and their precision can hardly satisfy the requirement of practical engineering while the results from the proposed method are still accurate enough.
基金Federal Highway Administration Under Grant No. DDEGRD-06-X-00408
文摘Buckling-restrained braces （BRBs） have recently become popular in the United States for use as primary members of seismic lateral-force-resisting systems. A BRB is a steel brace that does not buckle in compression but instead yields in both tension and compression. Although design guidelines for BRB applications have been developed, systematic procedures for assessing performance and quantifying reliability are still needed. This paper presents an analytical framework for assessing buckling-restrained braced frame （BRBF） reliability when subjected to seismic loads. This framework efficiently quantifies the risk of BRB failure due to low-cycle fatigue fracture of the BRB core. The procedure includes a series of components that： （1） quantify BRB demand in terms of BRB core deformation histories generated through stochastic dynamic analyses; （2） quantify the limit-state of a BRB in terms of its remaining cumulative plastic ductility capacity based on an experimental database; and （3） evaluate the probability of BRB failure, given the quantified demand and capacity, through structural reliability analyses. Parametric studies were conducted to investigate the effects of the seismic load, and characteristics of the BRB and BRBF on the probability of brace failure. In addition, fragility curves （i.e., conditional probabilities of brace failure given ground shaking intensity parameters） were created by the proposed framework. While the framework presented in this paper is applied to the assessment of BRBFs, the modular nature of the framework components allows for application to other structural components and systems.
基金Supported by Visiting Scholar Foundation of Key Lab.In University"86 3" High Tech Projects(86 3-30 6 -ZT0 2 -0 4-2 )
文摘This paper presents a computer system reliability allocation method that is based on the theory of statistic and Markovian chain,which can be used to allocate reliability to subsystem, to hybrid system and software modules. A relevant supporting tool built by us is introduced.
基金supported by Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of China (Grant No. IRT0816)Key National Science & Technology Special Project on "High-Grade CNC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipments" of China (Grant No. 2010ZX04014-014)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50875039)Key Projects in National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the 11th Five-year Plan Period of China (Grant No. 2009BAG12A02-A07-2)
文摘The correlation coefficients of random variables of mechanical structures are generally chosen with experience or even ignored,which cannot actually reflect the effects of parameter uncertainties on reliability.To discuss the selection problem of the correlation coefficients from the reliability-based sensitivity point of view,the theory principle of the problem is established based on the results of the reliability sensitivity,and the criterion of correlation among random variables is shown.The values of the correlation coefficients are obtained according to the proposed principle and the reliability sensitivity problem is discussed.Numerical studies have shown the following results：（1） If the sensitivity value of correlation coefficient ρ is less than（at what magnitude 0.000 01）,then the correlation could be ignored,which could simplify the procedure without introducing additional error.（2） However,as the difference between ρs,that is the most sensitive to the reliability,and ρR,that is with the smallest reliability,is less than 0.001,ρs is suggested to model the dependency of random variables.This could ensure the robust quality of system without the loss of safety requirement.（3） In the case of ｜Eabs｜ρ0.001 and also ｜Erel｜ρ0.001,ρR should be employed to quantify the correlation among random variables in order to ensure the accuracy of reliability analysis.Application of the proposed approach could provide a practical routine for mechanical design and manufactory to study the reliability and reliability-based sensitivity of basic design variables in mechanical reliability analysis and design.
文摘Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load, so it is important to study the structural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank. In this paper, the bracnch-and-bound method is adopted to search the main failure path, and the Ditlevsen bound method is used to calculate the system failure probability. The structure is then assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method, which evaluates the structural component safety rank. The ultimate equation of the tubular cross- section is analyzed on the basis of ultimate stregnth analysis. The influence of effect coefficients on the structural system failure probability is investigated, and basic results are obtained. A general program for spatial frame structures by means of the above method is developed, and verified by the numerical examples.
基金the Technical Basis Projects of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology(No.ZQ092012B003)
文摘Human reliability analysis(HRA) is an expansion of man-machine engineering. It is also a new multidisciplinary based on behavioral science, cognitive science, information processing, system analysis and probability statistics in order to analyze, predict, reduce and prevent human errors. Firstly, the quantitative analysis model of HRA is proposed based on Markov process theory by using human error probability(HEP) and error correction cycle(ECC) as parameters. And human reliability evaluation criterion is built. Then, the HRA process considering error correction is proposed based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM). Finally, according to the characteristics of armored vehicle system, common performance condition(CPC) in CREAM is improved.A reliability impact index is characterized by the overall contexts of tasks. Human reliability evaluation criterion of armored vehicle system is formulated. And the result of HRA is obtained based on the method presented in this paper. In addition, the relative weights are estimated by combining scale of 10/10—18/2 and analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and the triangular fuzzy number considering confidence factor and optimism index is adopted in order to reduce the subjectivity. The analysis results show that the method presented in this paper is reasonable and feasible. Meantime, the method can provide guidance for human reliability analysis of other weapon systems.
基金Projects(51175017,51245027)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘To reasonably design the blade-tip radial running clearance(BTRRC) of high pressure turbine and improve the performance and reliability of gas turbine, the multi-object multi-discipline reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC was accomplished from a probabilistic prospective by considering nonlinear material attributes and dynamic loads. Firstly, multiply response surface model(MRSM) was proposed and the mathematical model of this method was established based on quadratic function. Secondly, the BTRRC was decomposed into three sub-components(turbine disk, blade and casing), and then the single response surface functions(SRSFs) of three structures were built in line with the basic idea of MRSM. Thirdly, the response surface function(MRSM) of BTRRC was reshaped by coordinating SRSFs. From the analysis, it is acquired to probabilistic distribution characteristics of input-output variables, failure probabilities of blade-tip clearance under different static blade-tip clearances δ and major factors impacting BTRRC. Considering the reliability and efficiency of gas turbine, δ=1.87 mm is an optimally acceptable option for rational BTRRC. Through the comparison of three analysis methods(Monte Carlo method, traditional response surface method and MRSM), the results show that MRSM has higher accuracy and higher efficiency in reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC. These strengths are likely to become more prominent with the increasing times of simulations. The present study offers an effective and promising approach for reliability sensitivity analysis and optimal design of complex dynamic assembly relationship.
基金supported by Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (No. 20100251006)Technological Foundation Project of China (No. J132012C001)
文摘For random vibration of airborne platform, the accurate evaluation is a key indicator to ensure normal operation of airborne equipment in flight. However, only limited power spectral density（PSD） data can be obtained at the stage of flight test. Thus, those conventional evaluation methods cannot be employed when the distribution characteristics and priori information are unknown. In this paper, the fuzzy norm method（FNM） is proposed which combines the advantages of fuzzy theory and norm theory. The proposed method can deeply dig system information from limited data, which probability distribution is not taken into account. Firstly, the FNM is employed to evaluate variable interval and expanded uncertainty from limited PSD data, and the performance of FNM is demonstrated by confidence level, reliability and computing accuracy of expanded uncertainty. In addition, the optimal fuzzy parameters are discussed to meet the requirements of aviation standards and metrological practice. Finally, computer simulation is used to prove the adaptability of FNM. Compared with statistical methods, FNM has superiority for evaluating expanded uncertainty from limited data. The results show that the reliability of calculation and evaluation is superior to 95%.
基金Projects(51278216,51308241)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2013BS010)supported by the Funds of Henan University of Technology for High-level Talents,China
文摘The objective is to develop an approach for the determination of the target reliability index for serviceability limit state(SLS) of single piles. This contributes to conducting the SLS reliability-based design(RBD) of piles. Based on a two-parameter,hyperbolic curve-fitting equation describing the load-settlement relation of piles, the SLS model factor is defined. Then, taking into account the uncertainties of load-settlement model, load and bearing capacity of piles, the formula for computing the SLS reliability index(βsls) is obtained using the mean value first order second moment(MVFOSM) method. Meanwhile, the limit state function for conducting the SLS reliability analysis by the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method is established. These two methods are finally applied to determine the SLS target reliability index. Herein, the limiting tolerable settlement(slt) is treated as a random variable. For illustration, four load test databases from South Africa are compiled again to conduct reliability analysis and present the recommended target reliability indices. The results indicate that the MVFOSM method overestimates βsls compared to that computed by the MCS method. Besides, both factor of safety(FS) and slt are key factors influencing βsls, so the combination of FS and βsls is welcome to be used for the SLS reliability analysis of piles when slt is determined. For smaller slt, pile types and soils conditions have significant influence on the SLS target reliability indices; for larger slt, slt is the major factor having influence on the SLS target reliability indices. This proves that slt is the most key parameter for the determination of the SLS target reliability index.
文摘The cyclic stress-strain responses (CSSR), Neuber's rule (NR) and cyclic strain-life relation (CSLR) are treated as probabilistic curves in local stress and strain method of low cycle fatigue analysis. The randomness of loading and the theory of fatigue damage accumulation (TOFDA) are considered. The probabilistic analysis of local stress, local strain and fatigue life are constructed based on the first-order Taylor's series expansions. Through this method proposed fatigue reliability analysis can be accomplished.
文摘This article introduces the current situation of the smart then describes the relationship of meter reliability characteristics meter＇s reliability and the failure mechanisms at first, and combined with its Bathtub Curve. It also introduces both the feasible failure tree model for meter lifecycle prediction based on actual experiences and meter reliability prediction methodology by SN 29500 norms based on this model. This article also brings forward that it is necessary that the ＂Learning Factor＂ shall be adopted in meter reliability prediction for new materials, new process, and customized parts by referring to GJB/Z299C. Thereafter, this article also tries to apply IEC 62059 and JB/T 50070 to introduce the feasible method for the lifecycle prediction result verification by accelerated lifecycle test. Furthermore, the article also explores ways to increase the firmware reliability in smart meter.
文摘This paper investigates the reliability of composite laminates with various lay-ups under fatigue loading.The prediction of failure probability of composite laminates subjected to different loads involves many uncertainties associated with mechanical properties,loading,and boundary conditions.Failure in the composite material is truly hard to trace because there are individual faults in each ply,and we face a stochastic process due to the scatter in the mechanical properties.The continuum damage mechanics(CDM),as a powerful approach,is applied to model the damage of fiber,matrix,and fiber/matrix debonding.This method defines criteria for damage detection and determines safe zones.The material constitutive equations are executed using a subroutine inAbaqus.The first-order reliability method and second-order reliability method have been applied to examine the reliability of laminated composites.The results are compared with those of the Monte Carlo simulation.Different composite laminates under different stress levels are considered for the failure probability investigation.The limit state functions and random variables have been determined based on the CDM model.Finally,the effects of the number of cycles,applied stress,and stacking sequence of the laminate on the reliability and fatigue life in fiber-reinforced laminated composites are assessed.
文摘This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for linear fracture mechanics analysis of cracked structures. The main focus is on probabilistic aspect related to the nature of crack in material. The methodology involves finite element analysis; sta- tistical models for uncertainty in material properties, crack size, fracture toughness and loads; and standard reliability methods for evaluating probabilistic characteristics of linear elastic fracture parameter. The uncertainty in the crack size can have a significant effect on the probability of failure, particularly when the crack size has a large coefficient of variation. Numerical example is presented to show that probabilistic methodology based on Monte Carlo simulation provides accurate estimates of failure prob- ability for use in linear elastic fracture mechanics.
文摘Caisson breakwaters are mainly constructed in deep waters to protect an area against waves.These breakwaters are con-ventionally designed based on the concept of the safety factor.However,the wave loads and resistance of structures have epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Furthermore,sliding failure is one of the most important failure modes of caisson breakwaters.In most previous studies,for assessment purposes,uncertainties,such as wave and wave period variation,were ignored.Therefore,in this study,Bayesian reliability analysis is implemented to assess the failure probability of the sliding of Tombak port breakwater in the Persian Gulf.The mean and standard deviations were taken as random variables to consider dismissed uncertainties.For this purpose,the frst-order reliability method(FORM)and the frst principal curvature cor-rection in FORM are used to calculate the reliability index.The performances of these methods are verifed by importance sampling through Monte Carlo simulation(MCS).In addition,the reliability index sensitivities of each random variable are calculated to evaluate the importance of diferent random variables while calculating the caisson sliding.The results show that the reliability index is most sensitive to the coefcients of friction,wave height,and caisson weight(or concrete density).The sensitivity of the failure probability of each of the random variables and their uncertainties are calculated by the derivative method.Finally,the Bayesian regression is implemented to predict the statistical properties of breakwater sliding with non-informative priors,which are compared to Goda’s formulation,used in breakwater design standards.The analysis shows that the model posterior for the sliding of a caisson breakwater has a mean and standard deviation of 0.039 and 0.022,respectively.A normal quantile analysis and residual analysis are also performed to evaluate the correctness of the model responses.
