In order to evaluate the reliability of long-lifetime products with degradation data, a new proportional hazard degradation model is proposed. By the similarity between time-degradation data and stress-accelerated lif...In order to evaluate the reliability of long-lifetime products with degradation data, a new proportional hazard degradation model is proposed. By the similarity between time-degradation data and stress-accelerated lifetime, and the failure rate function of degradation data which is assumed to be proportional to the time covariate, the reliability assessment based on a proportional hazard degradation model is realized. The least squares method is used to estimate the model＇s parameters. Based on the failure rate of the degradation data and the proportion function of the known time, the failure rate and the reliability function under the given time and the predetermined failure threshold can be extrapolated. A long life GaAs laser is selected as a case study and its reliability is evaluated. The results show that the proposed method can accurately describe the degradation process and it is effective for the reliability assessment of long lifetime products.展开更多
Considering the dependence and competitive relation-ship between traumatic failure and degradation,the reliability assessment of products based on competing failure analysis is studied.The hazard rate of traumatic fai...Considering the dependence and competitive relation-ship between traumatic failure and degradation,the reliability assessment of products based on competing failure analysis is studied.The hazard rate of traumatic failure is regarded as a Weibull distribution of the degradation performance,and the Wiener process is used to describe the degradation process.The parameters are estimated with the maximum likelihood estimation（MLE）method.A reliability model based on competing failure analysis is proposed.A case study of the GaAs lasers is given to validate the effectiveness of the model and its solving method.The results indicate that if only the degradation failure is considered,the estimated result will be comparably optimistic.Meanwhile,the correlation between the degradation and traumatic failure has a great influence on the accuracy of reliability assessment.展开更多
Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synt...Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.展开更多
Thermal barrier coatings（TBCs） usually exhibit an uncertain lifetime owing to their scattering mechanical properties and severe service conditions. To consider these uncertainties, a reliability assessment method is...Thermal barrier coatings（TBCs） usually exhibit an uncertain lifetime owing to their scattering mechanical properties and severe service conditions. To consider these uncertainties, a reliability assessment method is proposed based on failure probability analysis. First, a limit state equation is established to demarcate the boundary between failure and safe regions, and then the failure probability is calculated by the integration of a probability density function in the failure area according to the first- or second-order moment.It is shown that the parameters related to interfacial failure follow a Weibull distribution in two types of TBC. The interfacial failure of TBCs is significantly affected by the thermal mismatch of material properties and the temperature drop in service.展开更多
Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for...Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation. And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables. A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too. Furthermore, the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method. On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode, the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper. Finally the instantaneous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.展开更多
A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-...A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degradation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making.展开更多
For high reliability and long life systems, system pass/fail data are often rare. Integrating lower-level data, such as data drawn from the subsystem or component pass/fail testing,the Bayesian analysis can improve th...For high reliability and long life systems, system pass/fail data are often rare. Integrating lower-level data, such as data drawn from the subsystem or component pass/fail testing,the Bayesian analysis can improve the precision of the system reliability assessment. If the multi-level pass/fail data are overlapping,one challenging problem for the Bayesian analysis is to develop a likelihood function. Since the computation burden of the existing methods makes them infeasible for multi-component systems, this paper proposes an improved Bayesian approach for the system reliability assessment in light of overlapping data. This approach includes three steps： fristly searching for feasible paths based on the binary decision diagram, then screening feasible points based on space partition and constraint decomposition, and finally simplifying the likelihood function. An example of a satellite rolling control system demonstrates the feasibility and the efficiency of the proposed approach.展开更多
The reliability of an Engine Electronic Controller(EEC)attracts attention,which has a critical impact on aircraft engine safety.Reliability assessment is an important part of the design phase.However,the complex compo...The reliability of an Engine Electronic Controller(EEC)attracts attention,which has a critical impact on aircraft engine safety.Reliability assessment is an important part of the design phase.However,the complex composition of EEC and the characteristic of the Phased-Mission System(PMS)lead to the difficulty of assessment.This paper puts forward an advanced approach,considering the complex products and uncertain mission profiles to evaluate the Mean Time Between Failures(MTBF)in the design phase.The failure mechanisms of complex components are deduced by Bayesian Deep Learning(BDL)intelligent algorithm.And copious samples of reliability simulation are solved by cloud computing technology.Based on the result of BDL and cloud computing,simulations are conducted with the Physics of Failure(Po F)theory and Failure Behavior Model(FBM).This reliability assessment approach can evaluate MTBF of electronic products without reference to physical tests.Finally,an EEC is applied to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the method.展开更多
Small sample size problem is one of the main problems that heavy numerical control(NC) machine tools encounter in their reliability assessment. In order to deal with the small sample size problem, many indirect reliab...Small sample size problem is one of the main problems that heavy numerical control(NC) machine tools encounter in their reliability assessment. In order to deal with the small sample size problem, many indirect reliability data such as reliability data of similar products, expert opinion, and engineers' experience are used in reliability assessment. However, the existing mathematical theories cannot simultaneously process the above reliability data of multiple types, and thus imprecise probability theory is introduced. Imprecise probability theory can simultaneously process multiple reliability data by quantifying multiple uncertainties(stochastic uncertainty,fuzzy uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, etc.) together. Although imprecise probability theory has so many advantages, the existing natural extension models are complex and the computation result is imprecise. Therefore,they need some improvement for the better application of reliability engineering. This paper proposes an improved imprecise reliability assessment method by introducing empirical probability distributions to natural extension model, and the improved natural extension model is applied to the reliability assessment of heavy NC machine tool spindle to illustrate its effectiveness.展开更多
Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forcestransmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period andearthquake input energy reduction by dissipation con...Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forcestransmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period andearthquake input energy reduction by dissipation concentrated in protection devices. In this paper,a stochastic analysis of a simple isolated bridge model for different bridge and device parametersis conducted to assess the efficiency of this seismic protection strategy. To achieve this aim, asimple nonlinear softening constitutive law is adopted to model a wide range of isolation devices,characterized by only three essential mechanical parameters. As a consequence of the random natureof seismic motion, a probabilistic analysis is carried out and the time modulated Kanai-Tajimistochastic process is adopted to represent the seismic action. The response covariance in the statespace is obtained by solving the Lyapunov equation for a stochastic linearized system. After asensitivity analysis, the failure probability referred to extreme displacement and the mean value ofdissipated energy are assessed by using the introduced stochastic indices of seismic bridgeprotection efficiency. A parametric analysis for protective devices with different mechanicalparameters is developed for a proper selection of parameters of isolation devices under differentsituations.展开更多
Discrete-event system simulation technology is used to analyze distribution system reliability in this paper. A simulation model, including entity state models, system state models, state transition models, reliabilit...Discrete-event system simulation technology is used to analyze distribution system reliability in this paper. A simulation model, including entity state models, system state models, state transition models, reliability criterion model, is established. ‘Next happen event’ is taken as impulse principle of simulator clock to determine the sequence of random event occurrence dynamically. The results show this method is feasible.展开更多
As technology scales down, the reliability issues are becoming more crucial, especially for networks-on-chip (NoCs) that provide the communication requirements of multi-processor systems-on-chip. Reliability evaluatio...As technology scales down, the reliability issues are becoming more crucial, especially for networks-on-chip (NoCs) that provide the communication requirements of multi-processor systems-on-chip. Reliability evaluation based on analytical models is a precise method for dependability analysis before and after designing the fault-tolerant systems. In this paper, we accurately formulate the inherent reliability and vulnerability of some popular NoC architectures against permanent faults, also depending on the employed routing algorithm and traffic model. Based on this analysis, effects of failures in the links, switches and network interfaces on the packet delivery of NoCs are determined. Besides, some extensions to evaluate a fault-tolerant method and some routing algorithms are described. The analyses are validated through appropriate simulations. The results thus obtained are exactly the same as or very close to the analytical ones.展开更多
With the increasing application of floating platforms in deep waters and harsh environments,a proper assessment of the reliability of floating structures is important to ensure that these structures can operate safely...With the increasing application of floating platforms in deep waters and harsh environments,a proper assessment of the reliability of floating structures is important to ensure that these structures can operate safely during their design lives.This study outlines a practical methodology for reliability analysis of a semi-submersible platform based estimating the probability distribution of the extreme response in rough sea conditions(survival conditions).The Constrained NewWave(CNW)theory combined with Monte Carlo simulations was first applied to simulate the random wave surface elevation process in the time domain.A Gumbel distribution was the best fitting to describe the dynamically sensitive extreme response statistics under extreme waves(drift and mooring tension).The derived probability distribution of the extreme response was subsequently used in estimation of the associated limit state func-tion,and a reliability analysis of the floating structure was conducted using the Monte Carlo method.A semi-submersible platform in a water depth of 1500 m subjected to extreme wave loads was used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.The probability of failure of the semi-submersible when considering mooring lines tension is greater than considering drift.展开更多
Degradation tests are often used to assess the reliability of products with long failure-time or few test units. Much of the previous work on reliability assessment methods has focused on constant-stress degradation t...Degradation tests are often used to assess the reliability of products with long failure-time or few test units. Much of the previous work on reliability assessment methods has focused on constant-stress degradation test( CSDT) and accelerated degradation test( ADT), mainly under the constant, step or progressive stresses. However,in actual testing environments,some stresses are difficult to control and vary with time irregularly,which are quite different from the three stresses mentioned above. In this paper a new approach was presented for reliability assessment with degradation data under irregular time-varying-stress( ITVS).Firstly,the conventional degradation path modeling method was improved by taking into account the influences of the variable stress on the degradation variable. Then,an example was conducted to show the effectiveness of our improved model.展开更多
Traditional track dynamic geometric state(TDGS)simulation incurs substantial computational burdens,posing challenges for developing reliability assessment approach that accounts for TDGS.To overcome these,firstly,a si...Traditional track dynamic geometric state(TDGS)simulation incurs substantial computational burdens,posing challenges for developing reliability assessment approach that accounts for TDGS.To overcome these,firstly,a simulation-based TDGS model is established,and a surrogate-based model,grid search algorithm-particle swarm optimization-genetic algorithm-multi-output least squares support vector regression,is established.Among them,hyperparameter optimization algorithm’s effectiveness is confirmed through test functions.Subsequently,an adaptive surrogate-based probability density evolution method(PDEM)considering random track geometry irregularity(TGI)is developed.Finally,taking curved train-steel spring floating slab track-U beam as case study,the surrogate-based model trained on simulation datasets not only shows accuracy in both time and frequency domains,but also surpasses existing models.Additionally,the adaptive surrogate-based PDEM shows high accuracy and efficiency,outperforming Monte Carlo simulation and simulation-based PDEM.The reliability assessment shows that the TDGS part peak management indexes,left/right vertical dynamic irregularity,right alignment dynamic irregularity,and track twist,have reliability values of 0.9648,0.9918,0.9978,and 0.9901,respectively.The TDGS mean management index,i.e.,track quality index,has reliability value of 0.9950.These findings show that the proposed framework can accurately and efficiently assess the reliability of curved low-stiffness track-viaducts,providing a theoretical basis for the TGI maintenance.展开更多
Because of poor lubrication, the abrasion of the engineering equipment＇s key connection position （the hinge joint and so on） has become the major factor that affects the mechanical benefit. The excavator WY60 is ta...Because of poor lubrication, the abrasion of the engineering equipment＇s key connection position （the hinge joint and so on） has become the major factor that affects the mechanical benefit. The excavator WY60 is taken as an example in this paper. The automatic grease-pouring, the working state test, and the alarm for fault of every lubricating point on the machine is accomplished by the control sub-system, the lubricating system and other correlated components. The principle and functions of the system are described. The work condition is analyzed. Finally, we present the plan of the software and the hardware of the system, and set up the fuzzy assessment model of reliability of the system.展开更多
The reliability assessment of aircraft ejection separation systems is crucial for aviation safety,but traditional methods exhibit significant shortcomings in dynamic behavior modeling,rare event quantification,and bid...The reliability assessment of aircraft ejection separation systems is crucial for aviation safety,but traditional methods exhibit significant shortcomings in dynamic behavior modeling,rare event quantification,and bidirectional consistency verification of function and fault paths.This paper proposes an innovative GO-FTA-GERTS dual model that integrates goal-oriented(GO)methods,fault tree analysis(FTA),and graphical evaluation and review technique(GERT)networks.The core innovation lies in constructing a bidirectional logical interlocking mechanism between the GO success tree and the FTA failure tree,leveraging the dynamic state transfer characteristics of GERT to achieve mathematical equivalence verification of function paths and fault paths.Using a specific aircraft ejection subsystem as an example,the model demonstrates excellent accuracy in ultra-low failure probability calculations:the mean system failure probability calculated by the FTA-GERT network is approximately 5.26×10^(−10) per flight hour,meeting airworthiness standards.At the same time,Monte Carlo simulation and Welch’s t-test are also used to verify that the success probability of GO-GERT model is strictly complementary to the system failure probability calculated by FTA-GERT network.This novel model effectively addresses the limitations of static analysis,dynamic path quantification,and rare event evaluation,providing a new method for reliability analysis of critical aviation safety systems.展开更多
The growing adoption of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources(DERs)such as rooftop photovoltaic(PV)systems and energy storage(ES)has transformed end users from passive consumers into active participants within...The growing adoption of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources(DERs)such as rooftop photovoltaic(PV)systems and energy storage(ES)has transformed end users from passive consumers into active participants within modern distribution networks,thereby introducing new complexities in reliability assessment.This paper proposes a bottom-up,probabilistic framework that systematically integrates residential DER adoption into predictive reliability analyses.The framework models PV and ES adoption using joint probability distributions at the customer level,incorporates component reliability,and employs an adaptive Monte Carlo simulation to estimate not only mean values of reliability indices but also their distributional variability across customers.The approach is demonstrated on the RBTS Bus 4 system under sixteen joint adoption scenarios.Results show that high PV–storage adoption can reduce systemaverage SAIFI and SAIDI by more than 90%compared to the baseline,while shallow adoption may worsen interruption frequency for some users.These findings highlight the importance of capturing adoption heterogeneity and distributional outcomes in reliability assessment,providing utilities and regulators with a robust tool for planning in DER-rich distribution grids.展开更多
As cyber physical systems,microgrids(MGs),with distributed generations and energy management systems,can improve the reliability of power supply for customers in MGs.To quantify the reliability of isolated MGs,a cyber...As cyber physical systems,microgrids(MGs),with distributed generations and energy management systems,can improve the reliability of power supply for customers in MGs.To quantify the reliability of isolated MGs,a cyber-physical assessment model is proposed.In this model,the circuit breakers and distributed energy resources are treated as the coupling elements between the cyber system and physical system,where the circuit breakers are uniquely modelled by using the Markov process theory based on the indirect interdependencies between cyber physical elements.For the cyber system,the reliability model of communication networks is formulated based on the link connectivity evaluation method.For the physical system,a system state generating method is presented to account for the optimal operation strategy,which considers the influence of the optimization strategy on the failure consequence analysis.With the proposed cyber and physical reliability models,the sequential Monte Carlo(SMC)simulation method is adopted to assess the reliability of islanded MGs.Simulations are carried out on a test system,and results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of proposed assessment method.Furthermore,one application of the proposed method is on the parameter setting of the cyber system,in terms of enhancing MGs reliability.展开更多
This paper proposes an impact-increment-based hybrid(IIHybrid)reliability assessment approach for power transmission systems.The proposed approach integrates the advantages of the impact-increment-based state enumerat...This paper proposes an impact-increment-based hybrid(IIHybrid)reliability assessment approach for power transmission systems.The proposed approach integrates the advantages of the impact-increment-based state enumeration method(IISE)and impact-increment-based Monte Carlo simulation(IIMC)to improve computational efficiency and accuracy.The IISE can efficiently assess the impacts of low-order contingencies.The accuracy is,however,sacrificed as highorder contingencies are usually neglected.The IIMC is more suitable for large-scale contingency spaces compared with IISE,although the calculation process is time-consuming.In this paper,the proposed IIHybrid takes advantage of its strengths while avoiding its shortcomings.The IISE and the IIMC are applied to lower and higher contingency spaces respectively.The high-order contingencies elimination technique proposed in our previous studies is still applicable to the IIHybrid.In addition,efficiency can be controlled by modifying the preset parameters to adapt to various scenarios.Case studies are performed on the IEEE 118-bus test system and PEGASE System.The results show that the proposed approach is more efficient and practicable than traditional methods.展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50405021)
文摘In order to evaluate the reliability of long-lifetime products with degradation data, a new proportional hazard degradation model is proposed. By the similarity between time-degradation data and stress-accelerated lifetime, and the failure rate function of degradation data which is assumed to be proportional to the time covariate, the reliability assessment based on a proportional hazard degradation model is realized. The least squares method is used to estimate the model＇s parameters. Based on the failure rate of the degradation data and the proportion function of the known time, the failure rate and the reliability function under the given time and the predetermined failure threshold can be extrapolated. A long life GaAs laser is selected as a case study and its reliability is evaluated. The results show that the proposed method can accurately describe the degradation process and it is effective for the reliability assessment of long lifetime products.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50405021)
文摘Considering the dependence and competitive relation-ship between traumatic failure and degradation,the reliability assessment of products based on competing failure analysis is studied.The hazard rate of traumatic failure is regarded as a Weibull distribution of the degradation performance,and the Wiener process is used to describe the degradation process.The parameters are estimated with the maximum likelihood estimation（MLE）method.A reliability model based on competing failure analysis is proposed.A case study of the GaAs lasers is given to validate the effectiveness of the model and its solving method.The results indicate that if only the degradation failure is considered,the estimated result will be comparably optimistic.Meanwhile,the correlation between the degradation and traumatic failure has a great influence on the accuracy of reliability assessment.
文摘Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 11002122, 51172192, and 11272275)the Military-Civil Special Foundation of Hunan Province (Grant 2013280)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (Grant 11JJ4003)the Doctoral Scientific Research Foundation of Xiangtan University (Grants KZ08022, KZ03013, and KF20140303)
文摘Thermal barrier coatings（TBCs） usually exhibit an uncertain lifetime owing to their scattering mechanical properties and severe service conditions. To consider these uncertainties, a reliability assessment method is proposed based on failure probability analysis. First, a limit state equation is established to demarcate the boundary between failure and safe regions, and then the failure probability is calculated by the integration of a probability density function in the failure area according to the first- or second-order moment.It is shown that the parameters related to interfacial failure follow a Weibull distribution in two types of TBC. The interfacial failure of TBCs is significantly affected by the thermal mismatch of material properties and the temperature drop in service.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50609009)
文摘Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation. And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables. A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too. Furthermore, the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method. On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode, the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper. Finally the instantaneous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71371031)
文摘A degradation model with a random failure threshold is presented for the assessment of reliability by the Bayesian approach. This model is different from others in that the degradation process is proceeding under pre-specified periodical calibrations. And here a random threshold distribution instead of a constant threshold which is difficult to determine in practice is used. The system reliability is defined as the probability that the degradation signals do not exceed the random threshold. Based on the posterior distribution estimates of degradation performance, two models for Bayesian reliability assessments are presented in terms of the degradation performance and the distribution of random failure threshold. The methods proposed in this paper are very useful and practical for multi-stage system with uncertain failure threshold. This study perfects the degradation modeling approaches and plays an important role in the remaining useful life estimation and maintenance decision making.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61304218)
文摘For high reliability and long life systems, system pass/fail data are often rare. Integrating lower-level data, such as data drawn from the subsystem or component pass/fail testing,the Bayesian analysis can improve the precision of the system reliability assessment. If the multi-level pass/fail data are overlapping,one challenging problem for the Bayesian analysis is to develop a likelihood function. Since the computation burden of the existing methods makes them infeasible for multi-component systems, this paper proposes an improved Bayesian approach for the system reliability assessment in light of overlapping data. This approach includes three steps： fristly searching for feasible paths based on the binary decision diagram, then screening feasible points based on space partition and constraint decomposition, and finally simplifying the likelihood function. An example of a satellite rolling control system demonstrates the feasibility and the efficiency of the proposed approach.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61503014 and 61573043)。
文摘The reliability of an Engine Electronic Controller(EEC)attracts attention,which has a critical impact on aircraft engine safety.Reliability assessment is an important part of the design phase.However,the complex composition of EEC and the characteristic of the Phased-Mission System(PMS)lead to the difficulty of assessment.This paper puts forward an advanced approach,considering the complex products and uncertain mission profiles to evaluate the Mean Time Between Failures(MTBF)in the design phase.The failure mechanisms of complex components are deduced by Bayesian Deep Learning(BDL)intelligent algorithm.And copious samples of reliability simulation are solved by cloud computing technology.Based on the result of BDL and cloud computing,simulations are conducted with the Physics of Failure(Po F)theory and Failure Behavior Model(FBM).This reliability assessment approach can evaluate MTBF of electronic products without reference to physical tests.Finally,an EEC is applied to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the method.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51405065)the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No.2014ZX04014-011)
文摘Small sample size problem is one of the main problems that heavy numerical control(NC) machine tools encounter in their reliability assessment. In order to deal with the small sample size problem, many indirect reliability data such as reliability data of similar products, expert opinion, and engineers' experience are used in reliability assessment. However, the existing mathematical theories cannot simultaneously process the above reliability data of multiple types, and thus imprecise probability theory is introduced. Imprecise probability theory can simultaneously process multiple reliability data by quantifying multiple uncertainties(stochastic uncertainty,fuzzy uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, etc.) together. Although imprecise probability theory has so many advantages, the existing natural extension models are complex and the computation result is imprecise. Therefore,they need some improvement for the better application of reliability engineering. This paper proposes an improved imprecise reliability assessment method by introducing empirical probability distributions to natural extension model, and the improved natural extension model is applied to the reliability assessment of heavy NC machine tool spindle to illustrate its effectiveness.
文摘Bridge seismic isolation strategy is based on the reduction of shear forcestransmitted from the superstructure to the piers by two means: shifting natural period andearthquake input energy reduction by dissipation concentrated in protection devices. In this paper,a stochastic analysis of a simple isolated bridge model for different bridge and device parametersis conducted to assess the efficiency of this seismic protection strategy. To achieve this aim, asimple nonlinear softening constitutive law is adopted to model a wide range of isolation devices,characterized by only three essential mechanical parameters. As a consequence of the random natureof seismic motion, a probabilistic analysis is carried out and the time modulated Kanai-Tajimistochastic process is adopted to represent the seismic action. The response covariance in the statespace is obtained by solving the Lyapunov equation for a stochastic linearized system. After asensitivity analysis, the failure probability referred to extreme displacement and the mean value ofdissipated energy are assessed by using the introduced stochastic indices of seismic bridgeprotection efficiency. A parametric analysis for protective devices with different mechanicalparameters is developed for a proper selection of parameters of isolation devices under differentsituations.
基金SupportedbyNationalNatureScienceFoundation No .5 0 1770 17
文摘Discrete-event system simulation technology is used to analyze distribution system reliability in this paper. A simulation model, including entity state models, system state models, state transition models, reliability criterion model, is established. ‘Next happen event’ is taken as impulse principle of simulator clock to determine the sequence of random event occurrence dynamically. The results show this method is feasible.
文摘As technology scales down, the reliability issues are becoming more crucial, especially for networks-on-chip (NoCs) that provide the communication requirements of multi-processor systems-on-chip. Reliability evaluation based on analytical models is a precise method for dependability analysis before and after designing the fault-tolerant systems. In this paper, we accurately formulate the inherent reliability and vulnerability of some popular NoC architectures against permanent faults, also depending on the employed routing algorithm and traffic model. Based on this analysis, effects of failures in the links, switches and network interfaces on the packet delivery of NoCs are determined. Besides, some extensions to evaluate a fault-tolerant method and some routing algorithms are described. The analyses are validated through appropriate simulations. The results thus obtained are exactly the same as or very close to the analytical ones.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC0303401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51779236)the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund(No.U1706226).
文摘With the increasing application of floating platforms in deep waters and harsh environments,a proper assessment of the reliability of floating structures is important to ensure that these structures can operate safely during their design lives.This study outlines a practical methodology for reliability analysis of a semi-submersible platform based estimating the probability distribution of the extreme response in rough sea conditions(survival conditions).The Constrained NewWave(CNW)theory combined with Monte Carlo simulations was first applied to simulate the random wave surface elevation process in the time domain.A Gumbel distribution was the best fitting to describe the dynamically sensitive extreme response statistics under extreme waves(drift and mooring tension).The derived probability distribution of the extreme response was subsequently used in estimation of the associated limit state func-tion,and a reliability analysis of the floating structure was conducted using the Monte Carlo method.A semi-submersible platform in a water depth of 1500 m subjected to extreme wave loads was used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.The probability of failure of the semi-submersible when considering mooring lines tension is greater than considering drift.
基金National Natural Science Foundations of China(Nos.61273041,71271212)
文摘Degradation tests are often used to assess the reliability of products with long failure-time or few test units. Much of the previous work on reliability assessment methods has focused on constant-stress degradation test( CSDT) and accelerated degradation test( ADT), mainly under the constant, step or progressive stresses. However,in actual testing environments,some stresses are difficult to control and vary with time irregularly,which are quite different from the three stresses mentioned above. In this paper a new approach was presented for reliability assessment with degradation data under irregular time-varying-stress( ITVS).Firstly,the conventional degradation path modeling method was improved by taking into account the influences of the variable stress on the degradation variable. Then,an example was conducted to show the effectiveness of our improved model.
基金Project(52072412)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China。
文摘Traditional track dynamic geometric state(TDGS)simulation incurs substantial computational burdens,posing challenges for developing reliability assessment approach that accounts for TDGS.To overcome these,firstly,a simulation-based TDGS model is established,and a surrogate-based model,grid search algorithm-particle swarm optimization-genetic algorithm-multi-output least squares support vector regression,is established.Among them,hyperparameter optimization algorithm’s effectiveness is confirmed through test functions.Subsequently,an adaptive surrogate-based probability density evolution method(PDEM)considering random track geometry irregularity(TGI)is developed.Finally,taking curved train-steel spring floating slab track-U beam as case study,the surrogate-based model trained on simulation datasets not only shows accuracy in both time and frequency domains,but also surpasses existing models.Additionally,the adaptive surrogate-based PDEM shows high accuracy and efficiency,outperforming Monte Carlo simulation and simulation-based PDEM.The reliability assessment shows that the TDGS part peak management indexes,left/right vertical dynamic irregularity,right alignment dynamic irregularity,and track twist,have reliability values of 0.9648,0.9918,0.9978,and 0.9901,respectively.The TDGS mean management index,i.e.,track quality index,has reliability value of 0.9950.These findings show that the proposed framework can accurately and efficiently assess the reliability of curved low-stiffness track-viaducts,providing a theoretical basis for the TGI maintenance.
基金This paper is supported by Scientific Research Foundation of PLAGeneral Equipment Departmentunder Contract No.20060210
文摘Because of poor lubrication, the abrasion of the engineering equipment＇s key connection position （the hinge joint and so on） has become the major factor that affects the mechanical benefit. The excavator WY60 is taken as an example in this paper. The automatic grease-pouring, the working state test, and the alarm for fault of every lubricating point on the machine is accomplished by the control sub-system, the lubricating system and other correlated components. The principle and functions of the system are described. The work condition is analyzed. Finally, we present the plan of the software and the hardware of the system, and set up the fuzzy assessment model of reliability of the system.
基金supported by Shanghai Central Guidance Science and Technology Development Fund(NO:YDZX20233100004008)National Natural Science Foundation of China(NO:T2441003).
文摘The reliability assessment of aircraft ejection separation systems is crucial for aviation safety,but traditional methods exhibit significant shortcomings in dynamic behavior modeling,rare event quantification,and bidirectional consistency verification of function and fault paths.This paper proposes an innovative GO-FTA-GERTS dual model that integrates goal-oriented(GO)methods,fault tree analysis(FTA),and graphical evaluation and review technique(GERT)networks.The core innovation lies in constructing a bidirectional logical interlocking mechanism between the GO success tree and the FTA failure tree,leveraging the dynamic state transfer characteristics of GERT to achieve mathematical equivalence verification of function paths and fault paths.Using a specific aircraft ejection subsystem as an example,the model demonstrates excellent accuracy in ultra-low failure probability calculations:the mean system failure probability calculated by the FTA-GERT network is approximately 5.26×10^(−10) per flight hour,meeting airworthiness standards.At the same time,Monte Carlo simulation and Welch’s t-test are also used to verify that the success probability of GO-GERT model is strictly complementary to the system failure probability calculated by FTA-GERT network.This novel model effectively addresses the limitations of static analysis,dynamic path quantification,and rare event evaluation,providing a new method for reliability analysis of critical aviation safety systems.
文摘The growing adoption of behind-the-meter distributed energy resources(DERs)such as rooftop photovoltaic(PV)systems and energy storage(ES)has transformed end users from passive consumers into active participants within modern distribution networks,thereby introducing new complexities in reliability assessment.This paper proposes a bottom-up,probabilistic framework that systematically integrates residential DER adoption into predictive reliability analyses.The framework models PV and ES adoption using joint probability distributions at the customer level,incorporates component reliability,and employs an adaptive Monte Carlo simulation to estimate not only mean values of reliability indices but also their distributional variability across customers.The approach is demonstrated on the RBTS Bus 4 system under sixteen joint adoption scenarios.Results show that high PV–storage adoption can reduce systemaverage SAIFI and SAIDI by more than 90%compared to the baseline,while shallow adoption may worsen interruption frequency for some users.These findings highlight the importance of capturing adoption heterogeneity and distributional outcomes in reliability assessment,providing utilities and regulators with a robust tool for planning in DER-rich distribution grids.
基金This work was supported in part by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2017YFB0903100)the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(No.521104170043).
文摘As cyber physical systems,microgrids(MGs),with distributed generations and energy management systems,can improve the reliability of power supply for customers in MGs.To quantify the reliability of isolated MGs,a cyber-physical assessment model is proposed.In this model,the circuit breakers and distributed energy resources are treated as the coupling elements between the cyber system and physical system,where the circuit breakers are uniquely modelled by using the Markov process theory based on the indirect interdependencies between cyber physical elements.For the cyber system,the reliability model of communication networks is formulated based on the link connectivity evaluation method.For the physical system,a system state generating method is presented to account for the optimal operation strategy,which considers the influence of the optimization strategy on the failure consequence analysis.With the proposed cyber and physical reliability models,the sequential Monte Carlo(SMC)simulation method is adopted to assess the reliability of islanded MGs.Simulations are carried out on a test system,and results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of proposed assessment method.Furthermore,one application of the proposed method is on the parameter setting of the cyber system,in terms of enhancing MGs reliability.
基金This work was supported in part by the Youth Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52077150)in part by the Ministry of Education of China(No.20XJC630009).
文摘This paper proposes an impact-increment-based hybrid(IIHybrid)reliability assessment approach for power transmission systems.The proposed approach integrates the advantages of the impact-increment-based state enumeration method(IISE)and impact-increment-based Monte Carlo simulation(IIMC)to improve computational efficiency and accuracy.The IISE can efficiently assess the impacts of low-order contingencies.The accuracy is,however,sacrificed as highorder contingencies are usually neglected.The IIMC is more suitable for large-scale contingency spaces compared with IISE,although the calculation process is time-consuming.In this paper,the proposed IIHybrid takes advantage of its strengths while avoiding its shortcomings.The IISE and the IIMC are applied to lower and higher contingency spaces respectively.The high-order contingencies elimination technique proposed in our previous studies is still applicable to the IIHybrid.In addition,efficiency can be controlled by modifying the preset parameters to adapt to various scenarios.Case studies are performed on the IEEE 118-bus test system and PEGASE System.The results show that the proposed approach is more efficient and practicable than traditional methods.
